Global Economy Research Articles

Exchange Rate Forecasts Based on Influencing Factors

The rapid acceleration of global economic integration has significantly deepened trade ties among nations, and as a result, currency fluctuations have emerged as a key factor influencing international financial stability. Exchange rates indicate a country's global competitiveness and directly affect the profits of trading companies and the flow of capital. The increasing complexity of the global trade environment has spurred a growing need for reliable exchange rate forecasts in recent years. Since exchange rates are shaped by economic, political, and market sentiment factors, understanding and analyzing these factors to develop an effective predictive model has become a central challenge in financial research, providing a deeper understanding of the global financial system. This article discusses exchange rate fluctuations and their predictions, analyzes the multiple factors that affect exchange rate changes, and sorts out the main prediction methods. This article aims to provide a reference for understanding the law of exchange rate fluctuations and their impact on the global economy, and to provide ideas for research and practice in related fields.

Research on Labour Rights Protection in Global Supply Chains

This paper analyses the issues of labour rights protection in global supply chains, exploring the current situation, problems, and solutions. It begins by presenting global labour mobility data and the current state of labour protection, noting that many countries, despite signing the International Labour Charter, face challenges in its implementation. The study reveals the severity of labour rights violations in global supply chains and their impact on individuals and society. Furthermore, it examines the problems and causes of labour rights protection from the perspectives of host countries, home countries, and companies. The research emphasizes the importance of protecting labour rights for global economic sustainability and calls for joint efforts to improve the situation. By addressing these issues, the paper aims to contribute to the development of more effective protection mechanisms and promote fair and sustainable practices across global supply chains. It also highlights the need for enhanced cooperation among governments, international organizations, and businesses to establish robust legal frameworks and enforcement mechanisms. The study suggests that through comprehensive reforms and a commitment to ethical practices, stakeholders can work together to create a more equitable global economy where labour rights are respected and protected.

Interpretable and Robust Ensemble Deep Learning Framework for Tea Leaf Disease Classification

Tea leaf diseases are among the most critical factors affecting the yield and quality of tea harvests. Due to climate change and widespread pesticide use in tea cultivation, these diseases have become more prevalent. As the demand for high-quality tea continues to rise, tea has assumed an increasingly prominent role in the global economy, thereby rendering the continuous monitoring of leaf diseases essential for maintaining crop quality and ensuring sustainable production. In this context, developing innovative and sustainable agricultural policies is vital. Integrating artificial intelligence (AI)-based techniques with sustainable agricultural practices presents promising solutions. Ensuring that the outputs of these techniques are interpretable would also provide significant value for decision-makers, enhancing their applicability in sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, advanced deep learning architectures such as ResNet50, MobileNet, EfficientNetB0, and DenseNet121 were utilized to classify tea leaf diseases. Since low-resolution images and complex backgrounds caused significant challenges, an ensemble learning approach was proposed to combine the strengths of these models. The generalization performance of the ensemble model was comprehensively evaluated through statistical cross-validation. Additionally, Grad-CAM visualizations demonstrated a clear correspondence between diseased regions and disease types on the tea leaves. Thus, the models could detect diseases under varying conditions, highlighting their robustness. The ensemble model achieved high predictive performance, with precision, recall, and F1-score values of 95%, 94%, and 94% across folds. The overall classification accuracy reached 96%, with a maximum standard deviation of 2% across all dataset folds. Additionally, Grad-CAM visualizations demonstrated a clear correspondence between diseased regions and specific disease types on tea leaves, confirming the ability of models to detect diseases under varying conditions accurately and highlighting their robustness.

How does digital economy achieve inclusive economic growth with efficiency, equity and green? International evidence

PurposeInclusive economic growth with efficiency, equity and green escorts the sustainable development of the global economy. The purpose of this study is to provide international evidence regarding the influence of the digital economy on inclusive economic growth.Design/methodology/approachBased on data from 98 countries from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzes the direct impact, transmission mechanism and moderating effect of the digital economy on inclusive green growth in the global economy through the system generalized method of moments model.FindingsThe digital economy promotes inclusive green growth, particularly in middle- and high-income countries (Europe, the Americas and Asia–Pacific). Key mechanisms include technological innovation and industrial structure optimization while better public institutions and education enhance its impact.Research limitations/implicationsThis study offers global guidance on leveraging digital trends for inclusive green growth, maximizing the digital dividend and mobilizing resources effectively.Originality/valueThis study expands the framework for analyzing economic growth in the digital economy and offers fresh insights into understanding their relationship.

How intelligent manufacturing and digital economy shape enterprises’ positions in global value chains: evidence from ‘Made in China 2025’

ABSTRACT Intelligent manufacturing and digital economy are both crucial drivers of enterprise development, particularly in the context of global value chain (GVC) integration. This study aims to investigate how intelligent manufacturing influences enterprises’ positions within GVCs and explore the moderating effect of digital economy, using the ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and constructing a difference-in-differences (DID) model. Based on ecological niche theory, this study finds that intelligent manufacturing enhances GVC positioning through three primary mechanisms: capital effects, innovation effects, and signalling effects. Moreover, digital economy amplifies these effects by improving global connectivity, enabling data-driven decision-making, and facilitating seamless trade. This study provides a comprehensive framework for understanding how the integration of intelligent manufacturing and digital economy strategies can help enterprises strengthen their ecological niches, enhance their competitive advantages, and accelerate their integration into the global economy.

Recognition and Assistance in Cross‐Border Insolvency: An Analysis of The Joint Liquidators of Bull's‐Eye Limited (In Liquidation) v Changjiang Securities Brokerage (HK) Ltd and Others [2024] HKCFI 3000 [Case Comment

ABSTRACTThis paper examines the recent decision of the Hong Kong Court of First Instance in The Joint Liquidators of Bull's‐Eye Limited (in Liquidation) v Changjiang Securities Brokerage (HK) Ltd and Others [2024] HKCFI 3000, which highlights Hong Kong's evolving approach to recognition and assistance in cross‐border insolvency. The case involved the recognition of insolvency proceedings initiated in the British Virgin Islands, despite the company's likely centre of main interests (COMI) being in Hong Kong. The Court's application of the managerial assistance exception, coupled with its comprehensive handling of regulatory constraints, demonstrates its pragmatic approach to facilitating international insolvency cooperation while respecting local regulatory frameworks. By balancing these considerations, the judgement reinforces Hong Kong's status as a leading jurisdiction for cross‐border insolvency. The paper analyses the factual and legal context of the case, explores its implications for insolvency practice and considers its potential influence on corporate structuring and insolvency planning in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

Understanding health trends in Ladakh region insights into disease patterns and social dynamics

The impact of infectious diseases on public health and global economies is profound, influenced by various economic, social, and cultural factors inherent in human environments. The social environment plays a crucial role in determining health and disease patterns within communities. This study aimed to elucidate changing disease patterns and associated social trends in the Ladakh region using a comprehensive approach, combining quantitative data on disease prevalence with qualitative community insights. Analysis of disease prevalence in Kargil and Leh districts from 2001 to 2022–2023 reveals a significant decrease in vaccine-preventable diseases but emerging challenges from conditions like diabetes, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases. Economic development, particularly through tourism, presents both challenges and opportunities. Environmental factors such as climate change and tourism exert notable influence on Ladakh's health landscape. Transitioning from traditional practices to modernization, along with urbanization and migration, carries complex implications for health and disease. Lifestyle factors including diet changes, physical activity, and substance consumption like smoking and alcohol are recognized as significant contributors to health outcomes.

University positioning in the modern educational space

Subject. The article discusses university functioning in market conditions, taking into account development trends of the educational market. Objectives. The study aims to analyze advantages of positioning the university based on academic reputation. Methods. The study draws on methods of system analysis. Results. We developed an algorithm enabling the university management to formulate the concept of positioning, correctly express tasks for relevant departments, and subsequently convey the chosen concept to the target audience. Conclusions. The development of the global knowledge economy and the mass nature of education determine the need to solve problems associated with modern university positioning as an educational and scientific center.

Diplomatic training and Sovereignty: Insights from Non-Western States

The paper examines how the sovereignty of national diplomatic training schools in the Global South influences their standing within the regional subsystems. The study is relevant in light of the growing clout of non-Western countries in global politics and economy, as well as their ever-increasing significance for Russia. We focus on countries that seek to pursue especially proactive foreign policies: Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey in the Middle East; Nigeria, Ethiopia, and South Africa in Sub-Saharan Africa; Brazil, Cuba, and Mexico in Latin America. The authors employ a cross- regional comparative analysis of diplomatic training there, supplemented by a biographical method that traces the career trajectories of prominent foreign ministry officials. Our research rests on selected post-structuralist, post-colonial, neo-Marxist, and post-critical approaches to sovereignty in states deemed peripheral or semi-peripheral. Additionally, we take stock of various approaches to diplomacy as an institution and further conceptualize how the indigenous diplomatic practices of individual states shape their role in the region. Our findings partly support the hypothesis that higher levels of sovereignty (sophistication) in national diplomatic training schools help these states to set the (sub)regional agenda. However, high levels of sovereignty in diplomatic training, as opposed to sophistication, do not necessarily translate into a country’s ability to set the regional agenda.

DIGITAL DIVIDE IN THE INTERNATIONAL ECONOMY: CHALLENGES FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

The digital divide in the international economy is one of the biggest obstacles for developing countries, which face difficulties in accessing the latest technologies and digital tools. This gap threatens to complicate the integration of such countries into the global economy and limits their opportunities for economic growth and development. The article estimates the scope of the digital divide in the international economy by monitoring the price of a mobile broadband data bundle. It reveals a significant difference in the levels of accessibility between highly developed countries and developing countries. For example, in such countries, where there is access to fixed broadband, its cost can be almost a third of the average per capita income. In the context of this study, the challenges facing developing countries in the process of integration into the global digital economy are identified: insufficient digital infrastructure, limited access to digital technologies, low level of digital skills, weak legal and regulatory framework, social and gender inequality, limited access to financing for startups and innovations, cybersecurity threats, dependence on foreign technologies and investments, economic instability and political risks, global competition and barriers in international markets. The factors causing inequality in access to information and communication technologies (economic, geographical, social, political, technological, international) are identified and characterized. The article outlines recommendations for overcoming the digital divide and stimulating economic development in the context of digital transformation: investments in infrastructure, educational initiatives, stimulating innovation (implementation of start-up support programs, facilitating access to venture capital and promoting the development of digital industries), international cooperation, ensuring cybersecurity, investments in scientific research and innovation (supporting the development of new technologies through scientific research and innovation hubs). The digital divide in the international economy is a significant problem for developing countries, as it complicates their integration into the global digital economy and limits opportunities for economic growth. With a comprehensive approach and cooperation at the international level, developing countries can overcome this gap and use the potential of digital transformation to stimulate economic development.

THE ROLE OF FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGIES (FINTECH) IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF E-COMMERCE IN THE ERA OF TECHNOGLOBALISM

This article explores the role of financial technologies (FinTech) in the advancement of e-commerce within the context of technoglobalism. Financial technologies have become a driving force behind e-commerce growth, providing innovative solutions to streamline financial transactions, enhance security, and create more flexible business models. The aim of this study is to analyze the impact of digital payment systems, blockchain, smart contracts, and artificial intelligence on the transformation of business processes in e-commerce. The paper examines current trends in the development of financial technologies and their role in shaping the global digital economy. The advancement of FinTech promotes financial inclusion by expanding access to financial services for the population. Digital financial platforms enable small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate in the global e-commerce market without relying on traditional banking services. This contributes to the expansion of the global digital economy and the creation of new business opportunities. Particular attention is given to ensuring financial security, reducing transaction costs, and increasing trust among market participants. The author emphasizes that despite numerous advantages, the widespread adoption of financial innovations in e-commerce is also associated with several challenges, including cybersecurity, personal data protection, and the regulation of financial technologies across different countries. Addressing these challenges requires the establishment of international standards and cooperation between governments, corporations, and multilateral institutions. The further development of digital financial solutions will facilitate deeper integration of e-commerce into the global economy, expand business opportunities, and enhance financial accessibility for all market participants. The methodological framework of the study is based on theoretical contributions in international economic research regarding the impact of financial technological innovations on e-commerce development. To achieve the research objectives, the study employs historical-logical methods, a system-functional approach to analyzing economic processes and interconnections, as well as factor and structural analysis.

Sustainable Development or Specialization? The Role of International Functions in Selected Cities of the World

Many papers address the issue of large cities and their functions on the international stage, including the command and control function, world city function, and global city function. However, there is a lack of comprehensive research on cities and their full impact on the international scene as well as the significance of the command and control (C&C) function of cities, global cities, and world cities. Therefore, this paper provides an initial attempt at a comprehensive analysis of this subject matter. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the relationship between the command and control function, global city function, and world city function. Ossan’s triangle is used to show the share of the command and control function, the world city function, and the global city function in the given cities. This method has not previously been used in the analysis of city functions. Four city types are identified in this study on the basis of the share of each function within the overall significance of each studied city. Research has shown that the most important cities in the world do not belong to any of these four categories, which suggests that no single function is dominant and that there does not exist a strong diversity of functions in any given major city. The predominance of one function or a balance between all three functions is not always associated with the largest and most important cities operating within the global economy. This is more likely to be the case for cities without well-developed command and control functions, world city functions, and global city functions. Examples of such cities include Harbin and Abu Dhabi.

Reform of the Global Monetary System Supranational Currency GES

The current crisis of the global monetary system forces the world community to search for ways of its reform. The focus is, first of all, on the issue of a qualitatively new international currency. In the context of this problem, a project is presented for the reincarnation of the Keynesian idea of an "objective standard of the value of a composite commodity", which in this case is the combined grain of the International Grains Council (IGC), with the aim of creating on its basis a supranational monetary unit GES (Grain Equivalent Standard) as an exchange rate benchmark /measure of value/ of national currencies plus for practical use as an international payment and reserve instrument. Since the movement of the market value of IGC grain is in the trend of the long-term movement of the value of the prevailing mass of commodity products, the new monetary architecture assumes, in essence, the binding of the GES currency to the general price trend of the world economy, which guarantees the stability of this currency in terms of purchasing power in the long term. – Guarantee of stability of global finances. Two options for reforming the global monetary system are proposed. The first option involves the creation of a global currency GES based on the weighted average value (in US dollars) on the world market of the IGC grain standard. – A symbolic currency, devoid of its own monetary base, is used as a measure of value and an international unit of account, an analogue of the SDR. The second option involves the creation of a global GES currency on its own monetary base, value-formatted by the global economy and attached to the weight of the IGC grain standard similar to the gold-dollar standard. – The currency is quite real, autonomous (independent of national currencies), used as a measure of value, a full-fledged means of monetary circulation, with the exception of bank lending. The first option involves linking the world currency to the market value of the IGC grain standard, the second – its direct value link to the weight of the IGC standard. Reforming the monetary system is designed to "anchor" national currencies (including the US dollar) on a solid material-value basis of the global economy, calm the emission-monetary bacchanalia in the world, stabilize the system of international settlements and payments, normalize equivalent commodity exchange in world trade, clearing pricing from pseudo-value falsity.

Sustainability through the prism of innovative service-oriented business model in farming

The concept of sustainable development was born as a new way to solve the problems of the mature industrial economic system. Naturally, sustainability management was focused on the product-oriented business model. However, the global economy is experiencing an unprecedented expansion of the services sector through servitization processes in manufacturing and agriculture implemented through innovative service-oriented business models. This study discusses the differences between sustainability management challenges in the agricultural industry and post-industrial farming. It explores how service-oriented business models bring various benefits to farming and help overcome barriers to sustainable farm development compared to traditional product-driven business models. The research follows a case study design, with an in-depth analysis of how a new small family farm successfully integrates three dimensions of sustainability by building a service-dominant logic-based business model. The case study findings demonstrate how service-driven farming naturally solves several main challenges reported in the academic literature on sustaining business in traditional product-driven farms and agribusinesses and avoids the need to balance traditionally competing environmental, economic, and social dimensions of sustainability because of the opportunity to achieve their symbiotic integration in a natural way.

Impact of Digital Currencies in the Global Economy

The main objective of the paper is to present the history and performance of digital currencies. The paper is discussed in three sections. In the first section, the history and definition of digital currency are presented, followed by a brief review of literature. In the third section, the different types of digital currency that have come into vogue are outlined. The main conclusion is that digital currencies are becoming popular in recent times in different countries and have a bright future.

STAFF MOTIVATION IN THE ESG CONCEPT

The article examines the evolution of the ESG concept (Environmental, Social, Governance) and its significance in the global economy, with an emphasis on its relevance for Ukrainian enterprises in the context of war. Particular attention is paid to key social ESG factors that become especially important in times of crisis: ensuring the physical and psychological safety of employees, supporting their financial stability, providing social guarantees, encouraging professional development and integrating stakeholders into sustainable development processes. The article emphasizes that staff motivation in modern conditions should consider not only material incentives but also a broader social context, which includes a transparent corporate governance system, fair wages, family support, psychological adaptation, and participation in social initiatives. The research highlights the growing importance of non-material stimuli, flexible work formats, and inclusive workplace environments that account for war-related challenges such as forced relocation, trauma, and instability. The study provides practical examples of Ukrainian companies that have already implemented ESG strategies and adapted their motivational systems to wartime realities. These companies demonstrate not only resilience but also an ability to remain competitive by responding to emerging challenges. They offer case-based evidence of how social ESG measures — such as secure working conditions, financial aid for affected employees, and training opportunities — contribute to long-term business sustainability and employee retention. Ukrainian businesses that actively integrate ESG principles not only strengthen their positions on domestic and international markets but also contribute to the overall economic development of the country by creating a socially responsible and sustainable environment for both employees and society at large. By aligning their HR policies with ESG standards, enterprises foster a culture of integrity, accountability, and social value creation, which resonates with international stakeholders and investors. The results of the study confirm that the implementation of socially oriented ESG principles in staff motivation is not only an ethical obligation but also a key factor in ensuring business continuity, maintaining human capital, increasing employee engagement and productivity, and achieving long-term competitiveness. In the context of war and post-war reconstruction, enterprises that prioritize ESG standards receive greater international support and long-term benefits in the form of enhanced adaptability, sustainability, and stakeholder trust. Moreover, ESG-based motivation strategies help prevent workforce burnout, encourage corporate cohesion, and promote innovation by empowering staff with purpose-driven roles and a shared vision of resilience and recovery.

Exploring the effect of leader other-oriented perfectionism on radical innovation

IntroductionRapid shifts in the global economy have increased the demand for innovation within companies, with radical innovation being a key factor for achieving competitive advantage, organizational success, and sustainable growth. Leadership traits can significantly affect employee behavior and attitudes, which in turn, can influence their work. leader’s others-oriented perfectionism, representing the interaction between a perfectionist leader and their employees, is particularly relevant in the workplace.MethodsThis study constructed a theoretical model to explore the relationship between leadership perfectionism and employee radical innovation and validated it through empirical research.ResultsThe findings indicate that there is a positive correlation between leader’s others-oriented perfectionism and employees’ work engagement, which in turn is related to radical innovation. In addition, there is a moderating effect of leader’s conscientiousness between the effects of perfectionism on employee work engagement. Employee promotion focus moderated the mediating role of work engagement in the relationship between leader perfectionism and employee radical innovation.DiscussionThe purpose of this study is to reveal the relationship between leadership perfectionism and employee work engagement and to explore how these findings can help organizations enhance employee breakthrough innovation. The findings will provide specific practical guidance for managers to encourage the combination of leadership perfectionism and accountability to drive employee work engagement and expand employee facilitation focus, ultimately impacting breakthrough innovation.

Echoes of a Cashless Future: Digital Payments as Catalysts for Sustainable Finance

The digital solutions for an economy bring more environmental and economic benefits for cashless transactions. For example, generating, transporting, and securing physical currency has huge costs involved. Compared to global economies, digital payments have been accepted very rapidly in India. The strong growth has been evident with the support of systems such as UPI and Aadhaar-linked services. India processed more than 9 billion monthly UPI transactions in the last year of this decade, marking a growth rate of 78% from the previous one. The country has set a benchmark for digital finance. Digital payment can help work towards sustainable finance through the management of cash dependency, upon which this paper bases its deliberation, emphasizing the Indian success in comparison with global circumstances. Handling cash carries a cost, but digitization also leads to a decrease in carbon footprint. This includes fintech innovations that can eventually bring better financial inclusion and efficiency. Analysis of key data points by comparison of the global and Indian digital payment ecosystems will help reinforce the pivotal role of digital payments in an endeavor to make for a more resilient economy.

Tool for Greener Tourism: Evaluating Environmental Impacts

Travel and tourism are essential to global economies, generating social, economic, and environmental impacts. However, there is a lack of standardized methodologies to assess the environmental footprint of tourist destinations beyond carbon footprint analysis. This study introduces the Greentour tool, the first of its kind to evaluate the environmental impact of accommodation, restaurants, and tourism activities using nine environmental indicators from a life cycle assessment (LCA) perspective. The tool applies a hybrid bottom-up and top-down approach, integrating data from tourist establishments and destination managers. The tool was tested in four tourist destinations in Spain and Portugal (Rías Baixas, Camino Lebaniego, Lloret de Mar, and Guimarães), revealing that transportation is the primary contributor to environmental impacts, ranging from 60% to 96% of total emissions, particularly in air-travel-dependent destinations. Food and beverage services are the second-largest contributor, accounting for up to 26% of emissions, while accommodation ranks third (1–14%). This study highlights the significant role of electricity consumption and food choices (e.g., red meat and dairy) in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, emphasizing the need for sustainable alternatives. Despite challenges in data collection, particularly for food and transport statistics, the Greentour tool has demonstrated robustness and adaptability across diverse destinations, making it applicable worldwide. This tool provides key insights for policymakers, tourism stakeholders, and businesses, supporting the integration of sustainability strategies into public policies and industry best practices. Future research should focus on expanding its use to additional destinations to foster science-based decision-making and promote more sustainable tourism practices globally.

Research on Regional Brand Communication of Cultural and Creative Industries

Taking China Jingdezhen ceramic industry as an example, this paper deeply discusses the characteristics, current situation, problems and countermeasures of regional brand communication in cultural and creative industry. The research points out that cultural and creative industries have become an important part of the global economy, and the development of regional brands is not only related to the dissemination of regional culture and economic development, but also affects the competitiveness of the country. As a regional brand with profound history and cultural accumulation, Jingdezhen ceramics is representative of its communication mode and current situation. This paper analyzes the problems existing in the brand communication of Jingdezhen ceramics, such as rigid brand communication concept, vague brand image, chaotic brand management, etc., and puts forward the corresponding solutions, including changing the communication concept, shaping a unified brand image, and the implementation of long-term brand strategy. These strategies aim to enhance the market competitiveness and influence of Jingdezhen ceramic brands, and provide a reference for the development of other regional brands.