The paper presents results of precise orbit and Earth parameter determination based on full-scale simulations of a potential future GNSS, with the name of Kepler, recently proposed by the German Aerospace Center. The space segment of the system consists of 24 Galileo-like Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) satellites and 6 Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites equipped with ultra-stable optical clocks. All spacecraft carry terminals for two-way optical inter-satellite links (ISLs) enabling high-rate data communication, constellation-wide clock synchronization and precise absolute ranging. The clock synchronization is assumed to create an extremely stable reference time scale based on ensemble of the optical clocks. A series of simulation scenarios are defined, starting from the Galileo constellation as benchmark, and gradually incorporating additional features including LEOs, ISLs and synchronized clocks to assess the impact on orbits, singnal-in-space range errors (SiSREs) and a geodetic quality Earth parameters like polar coordinates, length of day (LOD) and geocenter coordinates. Precise orbit determination (POD) is done at the observation level using the same standards and setups as in real data processing with ground network containing up to 18 stations. The MEO SiSRE, the most relevant to navigation applications, obtained for the Kepler constellation with perfect models and 18 ground stations was found to be 0.009 cm, 160 times better than 1.4 cm found for Galileo. It was demonstrated, that for operational POD for the Kepler system the ground network can be significantly reduced to only two stations if Earth rotation parameters are to be estimated, or to just one otherwise. A SiSRE value of 0.037 cm was obtained with two stations, and 0.018 cm with one station. For more realistic results a number of modeling errors are being considered. These concern observations – multipath, GNSS code hardware delays and ISL range biases, the dynamics – solar radiation pressure (SRP), gravity field, air drag, MEO antenna thrust, Earth tide potential, and the geometry – ocean loading and phase center offsets (PCOs) of space GNSS antennas. Any other satellite and station equipment contribution to mismodeling has been disregarded. It is shown, that for the Kepler the modeling errors are clearly visible in ISL observation residuals, in contrast to Galileo case, where they are to a large extent absorbed by the large number of estimated clock parameters. This was exploited to efficiently mitigate the dynamic modeling errors by estimation of empirical accelerations. With this setup the MEO SiSRE of 5 cm was obtained for Galileo and 0.3 cm, 0.4 cm and 0.7 cm for Kepler with 18, two and one ground station, respectively. The key to obtaining such low values are ISLs and synchronized satellite clocks. In the Kepler constellation with a single ground station the ISL range biases (RBs) up to 5 mm and 20 mm increase the SiSRE to 0.74 cm and 1.67 cm. Estimation of the ISL RBs is not recommended in the presence of modeling errors since they are significantly biased, which leads to increase of SiSRE to 2.2 cm. The Earth parameter determination, based on global network of 124 observing IGS stations, also benefits significantly from the Kepler constellation. The initial results show that the impact of modeling errors on Earth parameters can, as with POD, be effectively reduced in the Kepler system. The 30 cm error in integrated LOD, which has an impact on UT1-UTC, obtained for Galileo due to combined modeling errors could be reduced to 0.5 cm for the Kepler system. The same is true for the Z-coordinate of the geocenter, whose 14 mm error in the MEO-only solution could be reduced to 0.2 mm in the Kepler solution. The Earth parameters completely free of bias are obtained when the number of the modeling errors is reduced to only two: MEO SRP and PCOs. The ISL range biases up to 5 mm were found to have negligible impact on the estimated EPs. The largest differences (up to 0.2 mm) are found for UT1-UTC, for all other parameters they do not exceed 0.02 mm. The estimation of PCOs, being an integral part of Earth parameter determination, also benefits enormously from the Kepler design. It was demonstrated, that using only ten days of data they could be estimated with millimeter accuracy for MEOs and sub-millimeter accuracy for LEOs in all three spacial directions even in the presence of ISL range biases of up to 5 mm. Such accuracy of PCOs is not achievable with the Galileo constellation.
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