Geostrategic Rivalry Research Articles

What Lies Behind the Increasing Chinese Tourism Presence in the Northern Mariana Islands?

ABSTRACT The Chinese presence in the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands (CNMI) has increased dramatically in the past two decades. Fuelled by a combination of Beijing’s 2004 agreement on ‘Approved Destination Status’ and relaxed US border policy, Chinese arrivals boomed from the second half of the first decade of the new millennium. This article analyses CNMI’s economic engagement with China in the tourism industry. I argue that US federalization policies forced the CNMI to look for sources of revenue beyond the USA at the same time that China was expanding its outbound tourism. Yet, like the garment industry that preceded it, the Chinese tourism industry remains precarious and could easily fall victim to heightened geo-strategic rivalry in the 21st century.

The US-China Rivalry in Latin America After 2000

Since the 2000s, the rivalry between the United States and China has been generally perceived as a threat to American hegemony in the international system. Alongside Asia, Latin America has turned into one of the battlefields of geostrategic rivalry. China has been steadily increasing its influence and presence in the region where the US has regarded as its backyard since the declaration of the "Monroe Doctrine". The US has taken some actions to deter China from having a more influential position in the region. China is being considered as a political and economic alternative to the US by Latin American countries. The main argument of this study is that China has gained an undeniable footprint in Latin America thanks to its long-term, well-planned policies; Beijing can use its growing influence in the region as leverage in case of a conflict with the US in the South-Asia area within the context of a hegemonic war.

The United States and Ukraine’s Aspirations for NATO Membership

The aim of the article is to analyze and evaluate the attitude of the United States towards Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership after the Cold War. Particular attention was paid to the period after the outbreak of war in 2022. The main research problem is the following questions: What role does Ukraine play in the US-Russia geostrategic rivalry after the Cold War? Has the United States been determined and consistent in supporting Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership after the Cold War? Has the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 affected the US attitude towards Ukraine’s aspirations for NATO membership? The United States supported NATO’s “open door” policy, including the possibility of joining the Alliance by post-Soviet states, including Ukraine. However, international factors and the situation in Ukraine meant that the US was not determined to finalize this process, and the approach of individual US administrations to this issue fluctuated. The outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022 caused the US to postpone the issue of Ukraine’s possible membership in NATO for the post-war period. During the research, experts and scientists from research centers in Washington D.C. and New York were interviewed. The method of content analysis of text sources was also used.

The Rivalry between India and China for Political Influence in Nepal

Nepal is geographically situated between India and China's economically prosperous and politically influential nations. As a result, the interests of Nepal's neighbouring countries have influenced its political landscape. Thus, the paper attempts to analyse how India and China destabilise democracy in Nepal by relating historical, political, economic, and cultural factors because they are connected. Furthermore, it examines how India and China have affected Nepal's democracy through the political parties, the government, and the Constitution. China and India have a geostrategic rivalry, and then they engage in Nepal to create political polarisation, which weakens democratic institutions. It fuels instability in Nepal because it has cultural and political ties and generates more government instability. Therefore, research explores the complex connection of Nepal with China and India and their impact on democratic stability. The study concludes that Nepal's government, civil society, and regional actors should mitigate the adverse effects of external political intervention and foster a stable democratic environment in Nepal. This study used a qualitative technique, incorporating a literature review and document analysis, to examine reports, policy documents, and media items. The analysis of thematically gathered data reveals discernible patterns and trends in the influence of China and India on the volatility of Nepal's democratic system.

The international order from an Asian perspective: the importance of global understanding

With the Western order in crisis, the centre of gravity in terms of demographics and global trade has shifted to Asia. But this geopolitical area did not define the current world order nor is there an alternative yet. The non-Western Rest no longer shares a Western perception of geopolitics that thwarts its own development. Growing neonationalism and the prioritisation of domestic policy favours geostrategic rivalry, obstructing cooperation and a constructive international dynamic on every front. Contradictory ways of defining the terms of the debate lead to discrepancies that hinder the resolution of conflicts. From a constructivist approach, it is necessary to deconstruct the discourses on geopolitical power, which have been hijacked by realism. Understanding the underlying political philosophies of the Rest could facilitate a constructive debate on the nature of the emerging world order and how it might be organised.

Cyberwarfare and the Weaponization of Information in US–China 21st‐Century Geostrategic Rivalry

Sino–US geostrategic rivalry has carried over into cyberspace and is reflected in how both the United States and China view the internet as a battleground for the propagation of information warfare in their bids to increase global influence at the expense of the other. Both the United States and China have harnessed cyberspace in order to propagate their worldview to a global audience, whilst countering and rebutting the other's information narrative. The flow of information – including the use of cyberspace to inject misinformation, deliberately biased reporting, cover‐ups, and fabricated information – can be seen as a weapon of statecraft in pursuit of global influence and geostrategic objectives. Such ability to shape the information narrative marks a refinement of the use of propaganda, to the extent that private individuals with access to social media can be seen as propaganda tools.

Multilateralism in the Twenty-First Century

The rise of geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China is changing international cooperation. As China seeks new influence and the United States seeks to contain China and to reduce its own international obligations, three dimensions of multilateralism are becoming particularly important. The first is the management of the superpower rivalry, through formal treaties, informal arrangements among states, and international institutions. The second is the capacity of the leadership of any international institution to foster cooperation beyond the immediate preferences of one or another of the most powerful member states. The third dimension is the legitimacy on which the authority of international institutions rests. The evolution of these three elements will shape the future of multilateralism, by which I refer to the arrangements created and agreed by states which facilitate cooperation by enshrining commitments to diffuse reciprocity and peaceful dispute settlement. The analysis of history and of variations in current practice in international cooperation underscores several ways in which international cooperation could be sustained even as the US-China rivalry strengthens. Global agencies can play a crucial role finding and highlighting areas where cooperation and competition can coexist, and where their own capacities to pool information, to reduce transactions costs, and to broker and monitor agreements can assist. This, in turn, requires high-quality leadership by people who can effectively broker agreements among countries, persuade countries to pool resources, and attract and organize an effective and highly motivated staff. Such leadership requires positive ongoing action by member states, to define what is required for effective leadership of the institutions they collectively create, to seek proven competence in each domain before appointing leaders, and to monitor ongoing performance. Finally, international institutions can buttress their legitimacy by finding better ways to ensure the participation of all stakeholders, and to respond rapidly and effectively to global crises and to provide global public goods.

Coherence at Last? Transatlantic Cooperation in Response to the Geostrategic Challenge of China

In light of the larger contextual picture of increased geostrategic rivalry with China, this article focuses on the question whether transatlantic cooperation responses towards the geostrategic challenge of China can possibly be coherent at all. How can we explain coherent actions (or lack thereof) between actors across the Atlantic in their foreign policy towards China? The central idea then is to explain transatlantic cooperation responses to the geostrategic challenge of China from a coherence angle, providing us with a perspective by which we can understand why actors on both sides of the Atlantic invest in policy coherence, or rather not. We argue that this coherence angle on transatlantic relations is particularly promising as it combines a focus on actors and structural dimensions that is able to offer explanations by whom, where, and why policy coherence is achieved. By looking into two different cases, the so-called concerted sanctions case and the AUKUS case, we find both, transatlantic coherence and incoherence, respectively, in response to the strategic challenge of China. Overall, this article has important policy implications, as it can point to the underlying factors in transatlantic policy-making that push or obstruct coherence.

China-Europe Strategic Issues

Today, a shakeup of forces and a great power competition have begun on the global geopolitical scene. This competition is mainly due to the rise of China, the deepening of globalization and the interdependence of countries, and violent movements that transcend borders, such as international terrorism. In particular, the increase in China's national power has led to a change in the world order that emerged after the Cold War, and geopolitics is once again taking a central role on the global agenda. The geopolitical focus on the Asia-Indo-Pacific Ocean complex has evolved into a geostrategic rivalry where China is seen as the main threat. This approach is reflected in the international security strategy. In addition, it also manifests itself in the practices of international organizations led by the West forces. We see the most important example of this in the European Union's view of China.

The Loss of Raw Material Criticality: Implications of the Collapse of Saudi Arabian Oil Exports

Raw material criticality has played an important role in geostrategic thinking, especially since the crisis surrounding the price and supply of rare earths at the beginning of the 2010s. However, once dependency and strategic importance grow too strong, substitution efforts will take place that could reduce or even eradicate the previous criticality. Critical resources rarely become obsolete very quickly. However, this could happen in the case of crude oil because climate policy is forcing defossilisation, but also because artificial scarcity is falling as a result of geostrategic rivalries that are causing oversupply. This article analyses this process and the possible consequences using Saudi Arabia as an example. The development of a green hydrogen industry has potential, but it should not be overestimated in view of the absorption capacity of the economy.

RELIGION, ELITES AND SANCTIONS IN NORTHEAST AFRICA: REGIONAL IMPACTS OF SUPERPOWER MESSIANISM

The article exposes the regional context of geostrategic rivalry between the United States and China in Northeast Africa (NEA) against the backdrop of the emerging formation of a new bipolar world order and the messianic ambitions of the superpowers. The author predicts a significant increase in NEA’s geo-economic and strategic importance, due to the dominant vectors of global development and aspects of national interests of each of their superpowers. The article offers a detailed analysis of the evolution of NEA’s confessional space through the last 50 years and of the role of religious factors in the superpower rivalry in the region. The author arrives to the conclusion that the ruling, business and religious elites of the region have taken a wait-and-see attitude in the battle unfolding between the superpowers and do not want to unambiguously associate themselves with either side.

Who will control the electric vehicle market

The second automobile revolution, the age of electrification and digitalisation, is on its way. It is a gradual transition and not a sudden break. However, millions of electric vehicles (EVs) are now being sold, and the EV market is becoming a mass market propelled by economies of scale. It is reflected in the drop in the cost of batteries which will bring the price of EVs on a par with the price of conventional vehicles in the coming decade. Nonetheless, two interrelated issues have been underestimated and will now decide who will play a dominant role and benefit the most from the EV market. The first is the relative scarcity of raw materials from which batteries are made. The second is that the primary EV market is China which gives its companies a strategic advantage for the supply of critical metals and the large-scale production of batteries. Our research analyses the fundamental role of natural resources for the control of the EV market and the response of governments to ensure access to them. We show the importance of industrial and diplomatic policies in a context of geostrategic rivalries of large powers.

Who will control the electric vehicle market

The second automobile revolution, the age of electrification and digitalisation, is on its way. It is a gradual transition and not a sudden break. However, millions of electric vehicles (EVs) are now being sold, and the EV market is becoming a mass market propelled by economies of scale. It is reflected in the drop in the cost of batteries which will bring the price of EVs on a par with the price of conventional vehicles in the coming decade. Nonetheless, two interrelated issues have been underestimated and will now decide who will play a dominant role and benefit the most from the EV market. The first is the relative scarcity of raw materials from which batteries are made. The second is that the primary EV market is China which gives its companies a strategic advantage for the supply of critical metals and the large-scale production of batteries. Our research analyses the fundamental role of natural resources for the control of the EV market and the response of governments to ensure access to them. We show the importance of industrial and diplomatic policies in a context of geostrategic rivalries of large powers.

Cyber-threats in Ukraine as a problem in conditions of geopolitical rivalry

The subject of research is cyber-threats as an instrument of geopolitical rivalry.The goal of research is to study the impact of cyber-threats on Ukrainian society in conditions of geopolitical rivalry.The research target is to consider the format of the terminological uncertainty of the cyber-threatening problem at a national level; to study the impact of diverse cyber-threats on Ukrainian society and the state; to focus attention on the proposed control mechanisms against the growing cyber-threats in the conditions of geopolitical rivalry.Research methods. In the process of the study, the following research methods were used: a system approach, a search method, synthesis and generalization, an analogical method.Methodological basis of research were the Ukrainian scientists’ works and analytical materials.The results of work. Researching the issue of geostrategic rivalry, the most of the focus is on cyber-struggle. It is found that cyber-security problems increasingly become a problem of the national level, which is traced at the speed of adoption of normative legal decisions with legitimate mechanisms of counteraction to cyber-threats, in the creation of special cyber units to secure cyber resistance and others. The article emphasizes cyber-threats that were the most resonance for the Ukrainian society and the state over recent years, and also attention was paid to the mechanisms used by the authorities to counteract. The field of application of results. The results of this research can be applied in higher educational establishments of Ukraine to teach such disciplines as National Security, Information Security, Socioeconomic Security, etc. Conclusions. Cybercrime, cyberattacks, cyberwar are a result of the formation of an information civilization that not only enables to build a more efficient and successful society, but also forms new threats to national security, leads to geopolitical rivalry. The greatest controversy unfolds in regard to cyberspace, so the state should pay more attention to the system of formation of information policy in all its aspects: to provide terminological definiteness; to promote the formation of the proper coordination of activities of various information departments related to cyberspace opportunities; to create an effective training system for special structural cyber units; to cooperate with international agencies trying to provide cybersecurity in the world.

The US-China Trade War: Costs, Causes, and Potential Responses by Tier II Powers

The trade war between the United States and China is generating significant costs; it is rooted in the technological revolution based on big data, artificial intelligence and machine learning, which create the grounds for strategic trade and investment policies and geostrategic rivalry; and solutions must be based on addressing the elemental forces being unleashed by this technology rather than on ironing out nominal frictions that have arisen between the United States and China. This note argues for a new Digital Round at the WTO premised on the search for a global digital realm in which all countries have a mutual stake in ensuring its integrity, as opposed to a world of what might be termed “Digitalpolitik” (the digital version of realpolitik), which features walled off realms subject to mutual routine attack, with ruinous prospects for all.

Who Will Control the Electric Vehicle Market?

The second automobile revolution, the age of electrification and digitalisation, is on its way. It is a gradual transition and not a sudden break. However, millions of electric vehicles (EVs) are now being sold, and the EV market is becoming a mass market propelled by economies of scale. It is reflected in the drop in the cost of batteries which will bring the price of EVs on a par with the price of conventional vehicles in the coming decade. Nonetheless, two interrelated issues have been underestimated and will now decide who will play a dominant role and benefit the most from the EV market. The first is the relative scarcity of raw materials from which batteries are made. The second is that the primary EV market is China which gives its companies a strategic advantage for the supply of critical metals and the large-scale production of batteries. Our research analyses the fundamental role of natural resources for the control of the EV market and the response of governments to ensure access to them. We show the importance of industrial and diplomatic policies in a context of geostrategic rivalries of large powers.

Soft Balancing the Titans: Venezuelan Foreign‐Policy Strategy Toward the United States, China, and Russia

This article analyzes Chavist Venezuela's foreign policy toward three major powers, the United States, China, and Russia. Based on neoclassical, peripheral, and subaltern‐realism theories, it considers the Latin American duality between alignment and autonomy as strategic alternatives, and uses congruence analysis to consider the coherence between Chavism's geopolitical objectives and concrete actions in its foreign policy with the three powers. Venezuela's foreign‐policy strategy consists of three overlapping triads. In Venezuela–U.S.–China relations, Caracas assumes the power‐transition theory, aligning economically with the Asian rising power and serving as a gateway to Latin America. In Venezuela–U.S.–Russia relations, Chavism is politically and militarily aligned with Putin's Russia, taking advantage of the Russian–U.S. geostrategic rivalry. The most‐interesting and novel finding is in Venezuela–China–Russia relations, where the Bolivarian Revolution exploits a favorable economic relationship with China but aligns to Russian geostrategy, conducting a “softer balancing” against China to hold on to the partnership and to autonomy.

The Philippines in 2016

This article explains why the Philippines, a small country and a long-time US ally, shook the world in 2016 by democratically electing a president who has defied conventional expectations, touched the lives of ordinary Filipinos, been accused of human rights violations in his war on drugs, and could affect the geostrategic rivalry between the US and China.

China and Japan in maritime Southeast Asia: extending their geo-strategic rivalry by competing for friends

This article examines the expansion of the geo-strategic rivalry between China and Japan into maritime Southeast Asia. This rivalry is reflected concretely in their policies, in their positions, and actions on the South China Sea dispute. Likewise, the article analyzes this rivalry on maritime security in Southeast Asia and then concludes that this increasing hostility not only strains the relations between these two East Asian powers but might also threaten the survival of ASEAN as a loose association of small Southeast Asian powers.

Secular Aspirations and Political Islam in the Arab Middle East: The 1950s Reconsidered

The Maghreb Review, Vol. 37, 1, 2012 © The Maghreb Review 2012 This publication is printed on longlife paper SECULAR ASPIRATIONS AND POLITICAL ISLAM IN THE ARAB MIDDLE EAST: THE 1950S RECONSIDERED BY JAMES PISCATORI∗ Wm. Roger Louis ends his great study of the British empire in the Middle East by noting that, as the 1940s had witnessed British concern over the old regimes, the 1950s would turn to concern about a revolutionary Middle East.1 Those regimes were assumed to be revolutionary because they would be antiimperialist or nationalist. Military coups in Syria in 1949, 1951 and 1954, the Egyptian revolution of 1952, the revision of the Anglo-Egyptian treaty in 1954, the Suez war of 1956, and in 1958 the overthrow of the monarchy in Iraq, the Lebanese civil war, the British military intervention in Jordan and the formation of the United Arab Republic between Egypt and Syria were highlights of an eventful decade that induced anxiety in the West as bipolar geostrategic rivalry unfolded on the larger world stage. Mid-ranking military officers, nationalist and socialist ideologues and urban technocrats looked set to dominate the modern Middle Eastern political universe. While this view was common, it needs to be qualified in two ways. First, any implication that Islam was absent from the political equation of the time is offset by a defined view of the time that it was very much present. In this view, it was an unpredictable throwback to an earlier age but, with luck, it could be positively channelled given Islam’s even greater hatred of communism than of the West. The ascendancy of modernization theory in the 1960s somewhat obscured the extent to which Cold War imperatives had dictated an approving, utilitarian view of what was regarded as a traditional religious force. Second, some of the literature on political Islam has drawn misleading conclusions from the purportedly revolutionary Middle East of the 1950s. While explanations for political Islam, fundamentalism, Islamism, the Islamic revival or Islamic resurgence almost always prudently point to several causes, considerable emphasis has been placed on the reaction to this period’s perceived prevailing secularism, the belief that religion should be separated from the state and had little to contribute to political goals and programmes.2 * Durham University. An earlier version of this paper was presented at a conference on ‘The Middle East in the 1950s: Historical Perspectives: Israel, the Arab World, and the Great Powers’, co-sponsored by the Roberta Buffett Center for International and Comparative Studies and the Crown Family Center for Jewish Studies at Northwestern University, 25-27 April 2010. I am grateful to Professor Elie Rekhess for his kind invitation to participate and for suggesting this topic and to Ronald Nettler for his useful comments. 1 Wm. Roger Louis, The British Empire in the Middle East, 1945–1951: Arab Nationalism, the United States and Postwar Imperialism (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1984), p. 747. 2 The new Egyptian revolutionary leader, ‘Abd al-Nasir, told the French journalist Jean Lacouture in 1954: ‘after eighteen months in power, I still don’t see how it would be possible 4 JAMES PISCATORI Even so perceptive an observer of the Arabs as Malcolm Kerr, who famously chronicled the Arab Cold War between the Arab nationalist revolutionaries and the conservative monarchies, argued that the struggle for secularization had been largely won in the 1950s, except among the diehard Muslim Brothers and in the cultural area. The remaining unspoken debate was between secularists who ‘would combat religious traditionalism by surgery and those who prefer medication’.3 In addition, a good deal of the literature on political Islam tends to date its emergence to a period of a decade or more after the end of the 1950s. Many would ascribe its rise as a formidable force in the Middle East to the mid- to late 1970s. For Gilles Kepel, this decade was neatly bracketed by the death of Egypt’s ‘Abd al-Nasir in 1970, heralding the decline of Arab nationalism, and the overthrow of the Shah in Iran in 1978–9, marking the rise of a revolutionary Islam. Some date it, at its earliest, to the loss of Jerusalem in the Arab–Israeli war...