Geopolitical Crises Research Articles

International crises and authoritarian resilience: lessons from Hungary and Turkey

ABSTRACT This article focuses on how international geopolitical crises can boost regime security in competitive authoritarian regimes through a study of the ways in which the Russian invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the Turkish and Hungarian regimes in the run up to both countries’ pivotal elections that took place after the invasion. It argues that while domestic factors are decisive in determining regime outcomes, regional international crises can help competitive authoritarian regimes strengthen their domestic survival and boost regime security through two main mechanisms, namely by enhancing domestic legitimacy and promoting autocratic sponsorship. The article shows that the war has boosted regime security through enhancing both performance and personalistic leadership-based legitimacy claims of Erdoğan and Orban, as well as by providing novel opportunities for autocracy support by Russia in both of the countries concerned.

Decoding the Dynamic Connectedness Between Traditional and Digital Assets Under Dynamic Economic Conditions

This study examines the dynamic interconnectedness between digital and traditional assets, with an emphasis on fiat currencies (such as JPY/USD and CHF/USD), cryptocurrencies (such as Bitcoin), and digital assets backed by gold (such as Tether Gold and Digix Gold Token) under various economic conditions. The study uses sophisticated techniques, including dynamic connectedness, quantile connectedness, and time-frequency connectedness analyses, to test non-linear and asymmetric interactions between various asset classes. The findings reveal that while cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, frequently serve as net recipients of shocks during times of economic instability, gold and gold-backed assets are the primary shock transmitters. These findings highlight the increasing importance that digital assets play amid economic and geopolitical crises as well as their growing incorporation into the larger financial ecosystem. The study contributes to the literature on asset interconnection and provides implications for systemic risk management and financial stability; specifically, it offers insightful information for hedging and portfolio diversification techniques.

The mental health of Russian society and social well-being: the social economic aspects

All over the world, technologies, globalization, demographic shifts, emergency situations and climate changes are altering conditions how and where people live and work. In many countries, the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical crises impacted population psychological health, disturbed labor markets and accelerated pace of changes in labor sphere, especially in sphere of remote work, e-commerce and automation. These changes create new difficulties or exacerbate existing problems. The modern stressful realities affect mental health of working population.The effective solution of problems in prevention of destructive changes and maintaining mental health of employees is urgent task not only within separate organization, but also for entire sphere of work.The purpose of the study is to investigate problem of psychological state of Russian society and analyze its socioeconomic aspects.The empirical basis of the study was data from the official websites of the World Health Organization, the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, and the Center for the Development of Advanced Technologies.

The Arctic as a boundary object: who negotiates Arctic governance?

Abstract The contribution proposes a novel theoretical synthesis, between recent Arctic scholarship drawing on English School concepts and ‘third wave’ constructivist norms research, to analyse the thematic ‘boundary practices’ prevailing in Arctic governance. Through the boundary concept, the article draws attention to the myriad of intergovernmental and inter-parliamentary institutions that are engaged in shaping practices linked to the ‘responsibility to freeze’, referring to efforts to mitigate the impact of climate change on the region's communities as well as non-Arctic remote societies. Based on participant observation and policy and institutional document analyses generated between 2021 and 2023, the article argues that the ‘web’ of Arctic governance might undergo a reconfiguration. Having previously withstood the pressures of geopolitical crises originating outside the region, the governance web is now overshadowed by recent geopolitical developments, potentially triggering a recalibration of the political centre away from the Arctic Council and towards other forums. This would raise new questions of responsibility, accountability and authority, all of which may negatively affect marginalized decision-makers, such as Indigenous communities, that hold prominent roles in the current governance set-up. Going forward, although Arctic boundary work remains collaborative, fragmentation and associated multiple loyalties may limit the extent to which geopolitical fallout can be reconciled with tackling climate change.

Work-related stress of nurses in Poland and Lithuania: countries under the influence of war circumstances in Ukraine

BackgroundNursing is a challenging profession, often associated with high levels of work-related stress. Recent geopolitical events, such as the conflict in Ukraine, may further exacerbate stress among healthcare workers in neighbouring regions. Understanding stress levels among nurses is crucial for enhancing patient care and improving the well-being of medical staff.ObjectiveThis study aims to assess work-related stress among nurses in Poland and Lithuania, taking into account the potential impact of regional geopolitical factors.MethodologyThis cross-sectional study was conducted among 482 Polish and 380 Lithuanian nurses. The online survey was performed using the standardized Expanded Nursing Stress Scale (ENSS). To compare quantitative variables between groups, the Mann-Whitney and the Kruskal-Wallis test (with Dunn’s post-hoc test) were used. The significance level was set at 0.05, and effect sizes were calculated using Pearson’s correlation coefficient (r) and eta-squared (η²).ResultsThe overall stress level (ENSS total score), as well as scores across all analyzed subscales, were significantly higher among Lithuanian nurses (mean = 168.44, SD = 38.56), compared to Polish nurses (mean = 144.13, SD = 34.15), with a statistically significant difference (p < 0.001). In Lithuania, significant factors influencing stress levels included age (p = 0.049) and place of work (p = 0.026), while in Poland, gender (p = 0.034), seniority (p = 0.002), education (p = 0.01), shift work (p = 0.004), and workload (p = 0.001) were notable factors.ConclusionsIncreased stress among nurses in both countries impacts their well-being and patient care quality, highlighting the need for targeted psychological support and better working conditions. Implications for nursing: Nurses play a critical role in healthcare, and mitigating stress through workplace improvements can enhance both their well-being and the quality of care they provide, especially during geopolitical crises. Implementing stress management programs and providing mental health resources are crucial steps to support nurses in high-stress environments.

Fiscal space as a methodology for effective management of public finances

The urgency of finding new methods to improve public finance management stems from economic shocks, geopolitical crises, and unforeseen or emergency situations. Due to regional differences in economic and budget potential, state functions and powers can face financial limitations. This has led to the development of the «fiscal space» concept, which aims to improve the effectiveness of tax reforms, budget spending, public debt management, and the attraction of financing for budget deficits to achieve socioXeconomic objectives. However, the application of the concept in domestic practice requires the systematization of methodological approaches.

Impact of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict on the financial performance of Armenia’s banking sector

The importance of this study is underscored by the increasing significance of economic resilience in the face of global instability. The Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, initiated by Russia in 2022, has caused profound shifts in the geopolitical and economic environment, affecting capital flows, foreign exchange transactions, and the credit and financial policies of countries in the region. For the Republic of Armenia, whose economy is closely tied to external markets, such events present both substantial challenges and opportunities for adaptation and transformation within the banking sector. The objective of this article is to analyze the dynamics of financial results of commercial banks in Armenia and assess the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict on the functioning of the banking system. By analyzing financial data from five leading banks from 2020 to 2023, the study evaluates key indicators such as total assets, net profit, capital, and loan portfolios. The findings indicate significant growth in financial indicators, particularly in 2022 and 2023, driven by increased remittances, migration, and tourism flows from Russia and Ukraine. The results suggest that, despite the challenges posed by the conflict, the Armenian banking sector demonstrated resilience and capitalized on external economic shifts. This study concludes that geopolitical crises can create opportunities for the financial sector when managed effectively. Further research is needed to explore the long-term effects of the conflict on Armenia’s broader economy and the adaptation of banking policies to future geopolitical challenges. Acknowledgment Contributions of people who add to the success of this research are hereby recognized. Thanks for your contributions.

LandScan Global 30 Arcsecond Annual Global Gridded Population Datasets from 2000 to 2022

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) annually develops the LandScan Global (LSG) dataset, a 30 arcsecond global gridded population dataset representing global ambient human population distribution. This multivariable dasymetric model disaggregates census counts within administrative boundaries using ancillary data. Each country’s distribution reflects cultural and socioeconomic patterns; manual validations yield a unique global dataset for assessing populations at risk. For over two decades, LSG has been a standard for estimating populations at risk, aiding U.S. federal government, academia and humanitarian organizations. During disasters such as the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and the 2010 Haiti earthquake and geopolitical crises such as the Syrian civil war and the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, LSG supported scientific and operational communities in emergency response and recovery. In 2022, LSG datasets from 2000 onward were made publicly available through ORNL’s LandScan Portal. This data descriptor details our methodology and the application of geospatial science and machine learning to geographic and demographic data, highlighting uses in urban resiliency, emergency management, disaster response, and human health and security.

Erdoğan’s Electoral Success: Geopolitics, Social Class and New Nationalism

This study investigates the re-election of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in the 2023 general and presidential elections within the context of multidimensional crises, including economic, geopolitical, and social challenges. The research identifies three core areas that were key to Erdoğan’s electoral success. First, the government addressed economic issues such as welfare erosion, employment loss, and the lack of class mobility through the implementation of a novel class policy. Secondly, Erdoğan capitalized on rising nationalism driven by the influx of immigrants and therefore succeeded in establishing a new hegemonic space through a national identity narrative which he subsequently centered his political discourse on. Lastly, despite confrontations stemming from Türkiye’s active and revisionist foreign policy orientation during the 2010s, Erdoğan managed to navigate the geopolitical crises beginning in 2020 with a fresh alliance strategy. This study outlines the essential mechanisms by which Erdoğan succeeded in maintaining political power amidst complex crises.

Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on S&amp;P Europe 350 ESG Index During the Russo-Ukrainian War

The Russo-Ukrainian War, which began on February 24, 2022, has introduced significant economic and geopolitical instability. This study aims to investigate the specific impact of key macroeconomic variables - interest rates, exchange rates, inflation, oil, and gas prices—on the S&amp;P Europe 350 ESG Index (SPEESEP) during this conflict. By analyzing daily data spanning 20 months from April 20, 2021, to November 30, 2022, encompassing both pre-war and post-war periods, we employ the Wavelet Coherence Transformation (WCT) method to examine these relationships. Our findings reveal that exchange rates, oil, and gas prices significantly impact the ESG index, while interest rates and inflation exhibit a moderate influence. These results underscore the importance of understanding macroeconomic fluctuations during geopolitical crises for informed investment decisions. The broader significance of this study lies in its potential to guide investors in navigating the complexities introduced by geopolitical conflicts, thereby aiding in better financial decision-making and risk management. By developing appropriate regulations for the ESG industry, this research can contribute to minimizing risks and maximizing profits in volatile environments. As geopolitical risks are a persistent factor in investing, this study emphasizes the necessity for investors to meticulously evaluate these risks when devising investment strategies.

Geopolitical risk and gold price bubbles

Purpose This study aims to investigate the relationship between geopolitical risk (GPR) and gold price bubbles to determine whether rising GPR can drive deviations in the fundamental value of gold, thus leading to speculative bubbles. Design/methodology/approach Using a data set that spans from January 2002 to December 2023 and covers both GPR data and gold price data, this study applies the log-periodic power law singularity (LPPLS) model to identify gold price bubbles. The analysis explores the effects of GPR and its sub-indices – geopolitical risk–acts (GPRA) and geopolitical risk–threats (GPRT) – on gold price bubbles. The causal relationships are examined through logistic regression, Tobit modelling and machine learning, with a focus on different countries, including major gold producers and consumers. Findings The results indicate a significant relationship between GPR and gold price bubbles, particularly with GPRA, which exerts a stronger influence than GPRT does. Peaks in GPR often align with the formation of gold price bubbles, both positive and negative. Additionally, geopolitical instability in Russia has a significant effect on US gold price bubbles. Practical implications The findings provide valuable insights for investors and policymakers by emphasizing the importance of GPR in shaping gold price dynamics. Investors are advised to consider the nuanced roles of GPRA and GPRT when using gold as a hedge during periods of heightened geopolitical tension. Social implications Understanding the role of GPR in gold price bubbles can help mitigate the financial risk associated with speculative bubbles, thereby offering a better framework for managing assets during geopolitical crises. Originality/value This study extends existing research by directly linking GPR with gold price bubbles via the LPPLS model, with a novel emphasis on the differentiation between GPRA and GPRT, providing new perspectives on the safe-haven role of gold during geopolitical uncertainty.

GEOPOLITICS OF THE GLOBAL SOUTH: SIMILARITIES IN THE FOREIGN POLICIES OF KAZAKHSTAN AND BRAZIL

Over the course of the 21st century, the study of the Global South has evolved beyond a state-centric and strictly geographical conception. This framework now encompasses cultural, philosophical, and social dimensions, as well as the impacts of globalization on countries experiencing similar challenges within the global capitalist system. From a geopolitical perspective, the Global South has been employed as a category to classify countries, many formerly categorized as the “Third World,” that have sought to establish a more equitable international order characterized by cooperation and mutual respect since at least the 1960s. This article, adopting a geopolitical Global South perspective, aims to present the development and convergence of the diplomatic agendas of Brazil and Kazakhstan, particularly since the first term of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2003. The primary conclusion of this study is that, despite their geographical distance, Brazil and Kazakhstan have developed convergent diplomatic relations that can contribute to strengthening economic ties, renewing the multilateral system, and enhancing the role of Global South diplomacy in mediating contemporary geopolitical crises.

South Korea’s supply chain diversification in response to geopolitical risk: evidence from change point detection approach to battery industry

ABSTRACT Recent geopolitical shifts and fragmented global value chains have significantly impacted international business ecosystems. Protectionist policies have driven regionalized and diversified supply chains, particularly in strategic industries. This study uses change point detection to examine how cooperative strategies between the South Korean government and corporations impact the battery industry. Findings reveal that supply chain diversification is essential for managing geopolitical risks, with coordinated government and corporate strategies enhancing resilience. This research highlights the critical role of government-corporate collaboration in mitigating geopolitical crises and provides empirical insights to inform future global supply chain policymaking.

How to promote green energy transition in the age of geopolitical crises and international shocks: Evidence from the EU-27

How to promote green energy transition in the age of geopolitical crises and international shocks: Evidence from the EU-27

Discourse Analysis of International Scientific Organizations in the 2022 Russia–Ukraine Conflict: A Natural Language Processing Approach

The scientific community has not stayed outside the Russia–Ukraine conflict. This study analyzes the attitudes and roles of international scientific organizations in the conflict, based on 923 official statements, through a combination of discourse analysis and Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling. The findings reveal that 527 organizations issued statements, with 47% explicitly “supporting Ukraine and condemning Russia”, and 13% maintaining a neutral stance. These statements reflect diverse concerns, including the conflict’s immediate humanitarian impact, disruption to scientific collaboration, and broader political and social implications. This research contributes to understanding how international scientific organizations navigate conflict contexts by systematically uncovering their attitudes, focus areas, and actions. Through a thematic analysis, the study demonstrates how these organizations articulate their positions, advocate for specific measures, and leverage their influence to address issues such as economic support, scientific collaboration, and healthcare assistance. By identifying these behaviors, the study clarifies the strategic roles scientific organizations play in shaping discourse and mediating international relations, offering key insights into their impact during geopolitical crises.

FORMATION OF AN EFFICIENT REGULATORY SYSTEM OF INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT UNDER CONDITIONS OF INCREASING CHALLENGES OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

In modern conditions of increasing challenges of sustainable development, there is a need to create an effective system of regulation of international investment activities that would ensure economic, ecological and social balance. The article examines global flows of foreign direct investment by different groups of countries: a global trend that can be associated with economic difficulties, geopolitical crises, as well as the impact of inflation or global slowdown in production. The article reviews the investments of the TOP-10 largest economies in the world in the energy transition until 2023, as well as the EU-27 and the rest of the world. Solar and wind energy have been found to be leaders among green investments. China, the USA and the EU are actively financing large-scale projects in this area, and the fall in the cost of technology contributes to the rapid implementation of renewable energy sources In the context of this study, monitoring of the rating of countries according to the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) was carried out, which is a tool that helps to assess the success of countries in protecting the environment and achieving sustainable development, and also provides an opportunity to identify problem areas, stimulates transparency in politics and promotes the implementation of effective solutions for global environmental challenges. A general decline in EPI values among leading countries may indicate an increase in global environmental challenges. The improvement of Ukraine's position indicates progress in the implementation of environmental reforms, but the gap with the leading countries remains significant. International investment policy for attracting «green» investments has significant potential to accelerate the transition to sustainable development. The article outlines the prospects of international investment policy for attracting «green» investments; the principles of forming an effective system of regulation of international investment based on the principles of sustainable development (transparency and accountability, integration of environmental standards, protection of the rights of local communities, compliance with international standards) and its elements (development of international regulatory acts, financial incentives, monitoring and reporting mechanism, sanctions for violations) are defined).

Impact of the war in Ukraine on the real estate market in Romania: Analysis in geopolitical context

The war in Ukraine has caused profound transformations in the dynamics of the Romanian real estate market, reflecting the impact of a complex combination of economic and financial, demographic and socio-cultural, as well as political and legal factors. In this context, the objective of the study is to analyze the impact of the war in Ukraine on the real estate market in Romania by assessing the influence of determinants to identify measures to support the stability and development of the real estate market within geopolitical crises. Subsequently, based on statistical analysis methods, the econometric model was developed considering as dependent variables the real estate market (measured by average price for housing) and independent variables – the number of Ukrainian migrants, interest rate on mortgage loans, GDP per capita, and inflation rate. The research results reveal that Ukrainian migration has a significant positive impact on the real estate market, leading to price increases for housing in urban areas and increased demand for rental housing. In addition, mortgage interest rates show a significant negative impact, suggesting that lower affordability of financing limits purchases of real estate. Moreover, GDP growth per capita is positively correlated with price dynamics in the real estate market, confirming that a prosperous economy stimulates investments in real estate. Findings provide valuable insights into understanding how geopolitical and economic factors interact to influence the real estate market.

Research on the cross-contagion between international stock markets and geopolitical risks: the two-layer network perspective

As the international environment changes, frequent geopolitical crises continue to hinder the healthy development of global stock markets. To analyze in-depth the risk contagion path between the international stock market and geopolitics under the impact of extreme events, this paper explores the tail risk interactive contagion mechanism and dynamic effects of the double-layer network between the international stock market and geopolitics from the perspective of complex networks. Empirical research finds that geopolitical conflicts exacerbate risk contagion among international stock markets, and there are significant differences in risk contagion between developed and emerging economies. The analysis of the complex interaction effect in the double-layer network of the international stock market and geopolitics shows that the intralayer risk spillover effect of geopolitics in the short term is significantly higher than that of the stock price volatility network layer. Finally, the study on the dynamic changes of the double-layer network connectedness between the international stock market and geopolitics found that the shock of extreme events, such as military conflict and public health security, is an important factor in triggering the cross-contagion of risks. The research conclusions provide new ideas for preventing the cross-contagion of geopolitical risks in the stock markets of various countries under the evolution of the global political and economic pattern.

Impact of Israel Palestine War on Indian Economy – An Event Study

Background: Geopolitical conflicts and terrorism have profound effects at global market scenario in financial markets, uncertainties present in the market, confidence of the investors and their diversified market risk. Historically, dated 11 September, 2001 Russia-Ukraine war escalated, a day marked with unprecedented casualties and consequences which illustrates the complexed mixed play between various political interplay and financial stability. Further, October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on Israel which lead to major geopolitical consequences . This event portrays that terroristattacks often results in market fluctuations, market volatility in relation to indicators such as location, scale and other economic context of the event. Objective:This paper investigatesthe role of Israel-Palestine conflict through various sectoral indicators present in the Indian economy through event study methodology. The study investigates conflict implications that has affected the whole sector, further helping foreign investors to make actionable insights for navigating global market uncertainties. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study covers fromperiod January 4, 2023, to November 7, 2023, which includes 167 days before and 20 days after the announcement of conflict, made use of data from the National Stock Exchange (NSE). In order to evaluate sectoral and temporal changes in market dynamics, the research uses the event study approach to examine cumulative abnormal returns (CAAR). Results &amp; Discussion: The study highlights sectoral reactions of the Israel-Palestine conflict are shown by the data, with the metal, health care, IT, oil and gas, and pharmaceutical industries showing particularly encouraging developments. Notably, there areunfavourable trends in the automobiles financial services, FMCG, and real estate industries. The study delineates financial ramification and provides a detailed insight of the financial effects of the war by identifying winners and losers among industries.The research holds significant importance for analysts, politicians, and foreign investor. In times of political uncertainty, stakeholders may make informed decisions by identifying beneficiaries and losers as sector-specific implications. The study emphasizes how crucial it is to modify investment plans and government reactions in light of specific industry features.The findings contributes in wider spectrum through lens of geo-political events such as Israel-Palestine conflict that has affected the Indian economy byshedding lights onbeneficiaries and adversely affected industries,the research enriches significant contributions into the complexity of market responses to political events. Conclusion: This research underlines the interconnectedness of global market scenario in respect with financial markets. Through examining the financial aftermath of various events the study underscores valuable insights on geopolitical crises which is led by wars, terrorist , conflicts, and other economic vulnerability. These insights are quintessentially important for various people namely, investors, policymakers, organizations and financial institutions in uncertain global landscape which will guide them to navigate through these uncertainties and risk.

THE ROLE OF GOVERNMENT POLICIES IN ENHANCING THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SAUDI FINANCIAL MARKET WITHIN THE FRAMEWORK OF VISION 2030

Financial markets are the backbone of the economy for many countries worldwide due to their importance in achieving balance within the overall financial system. They do this through various roles and tasks, such as hedging operations and managing different investments in financial instruments like stocks and bonds. This makes the management policies of financial markets significantly impact the financial environment specifically, and the global economy in general. The primary objective of this study is to clarify the role played by various government policies and procedures in improving the performance of financial markets and enhancing their contribution to the local economies of emerging countries, with a focus on the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Equally important is the study’s aim to draw attention to ways to improve the performance of financial markets and provide an initial study on this topic, which is relatively new for Arab countries, where previous local studies remain scarce. On another level, diagnosing the governmental policies adopted in managing financial markets and revealing their various advantages and the challenges they face is highly beneficial for developing future strategies to advance these markets and enhance their competitiveness. To achieve this objective, an exploratory study was conducted based on various secondary sources, data, and reports issued by the Saudi Tadawul market. The study concluded that the different government measures adopted by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia as part of its vision during the period 2010-2030 had a positive impact on the Saudi financial market, which has notably improved despite the economic conditions and geopolitical crises the world is currently witnessing.