CO2–water–rock interactions have an important impact on the stability and integrity of the caprock in CO2 geological storage projects. The injected CO2 in the reservoir enters the caprock via different mechanisms, leading to either the dissolution or precipitation of minerals. The mineral alterations change the porosity, permeability, and mechanical properties of the caprock, affecting its sealing capability. To evaluate the sealing effectiveness of overlying caprock and identify the influencing factors, numerical simulations and experiments were carried out on the mudstone Dongying Formation in Dezhou, China. Based on high-temperature and high-pressure autoclave experiments, batch reaction simulations were performed to obtain some key kinetic parameters for mineral dissolution/precipitation. Then, they were applied to the following simulation. The simulation results indicate that gaseous CO2 has migrated 7 m in the caprock, while dissolved CO2 migrated to the top of the caprock. Calcite is the dominant mineral within 1 m of the bottom of the caprock. The dissolution of calcite increases the porosity from 0.0625 to 0.4, but the overall porosity of the caprock decreases, with a minimum of 0.054, mainly due to the precipitation of montmorillonite and K-feldspar. A sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting the sealing performance of the caprock considered the changes in sealing performance under different reservoir sealing conditions. Sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting the sealing performance of the caprock indicates that the difference in pressure between reservoir and caprock affects the range of CO2 transport and the degree of mineral reaction, and the sealing of the caprock increases with the difference in pressure. Increasing the initial reservoir gas saturation can weaken the caprock’s self-sealing behavior but shorten the migration distance of CO2 within the caprock. When the content is lower than 2%, the presence of chlorite improves the sealing performance of the caprock and does not increase with further chlorite content. This study elucidates the factors that affect the sealing ability of the caprock, providing a theoretical basis for the selection and safety evaluation of CO2 geological storage sites.
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