Level Of GDP Research Articles

Assessment of Olympic performance in relation to economic, demographic, geographic, and social factors: quantile and Tobit approaches

The sports industry's global gain is worth drawing attention to in the face of economics. Scholars argued that a country's success in sports is directly related to its economic, demographic, geographic, and social factors. Therefore, investigating the relationship between these factors and sports prizes could be a garment in formulating policies for promoting sports success. Thus, this study used cross-sectional data analysis to investigate such claims based on the recent Olympic Games of Rio 2016 from 207 countries with more than 11,000 athletes on 306 events in 28 different sports by employing Quantile Regression and Tobit Regression models. The findings revealed that inflation rate in moderate performed countries; economically active population in low, moderate, high, and very high performed countries; and countries' income classification in low, moderate, high, and very high performed countries are influencing the countries medal ranking performance in the Olympic Games. Furthermore, countries with high temperatures are not likely to do well in the games. However, the size of a country's GDP level, corruption ranking level, the number of athletes, and the topographical nature of a country have no impact on the countries medal ranking performance in the Olympic Games.

An Input–Output Analysis of the Water–Energy–Food Nexus Based on the Intensity and Quantity Index System—A Case Study of 30 Provinces in China

In the study of the water–energy–food nexus (WEF nexus), the importance of the intensity and quantity index system has been widely recognized. In order to study the impact of WEF on the economy, this paper establishes an intensity index system and a quantity index system, taking account of the impact of environmental pollution. Using a DEA model and China’s provincial data from 2019, this paper calculated the efficiency of the WEF nexus with the developed intensity and quantity index systems. The results show that the efficiency is not high in areas with a high economic development level, and efficiency is not the lowest in areas with a relatively low economic development level. When considering environmental pollution, the efficiency of some provinces has increased significantly, indicating that the WEF nexus has not caused environmental damage and is conducive to sustainable economic development. In the two intensity index systems, the efficiency of the production system is significantly lower than that of the consumption system, indicating that there is a serious waste of cultivated land per capita. Compared with the intensity index system, the efficiency of the quantity index system is low, and the polarization is obvious. A high level of GDP does not mean a high level of economic development. There may be a low level of resource utilization technology or environmental pollution underlying it. It is unscientific to evaluate local economic development only by GDP. When evaluating the urban economy and national economy, we should conduct an overall study of WEF and reasonably allocate WEF resources, which will not only help to alleviate the current situation of resource shortage in various countries but also effectively promote the coordinated development of national and regional economies. At the same time, environmental protection should also be taken into account. Compared with the economic development model of developing the economy first and then solving environmental problems, developing and solving at the same time is more conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy.

The Bahamas: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas

The Bahamas is experiencing a tourism-led rebound. Real GDP growth in 2021 was close to 14 percent, as stayover tourist arrivals doubled relative to 2020. The economy is projected to expand by 8 percent in 2022. Nonetheless, it will likely take until 2024 to return to the 2019 level of GDP and the pandemic has given rise to significant human and social costs. The country’s medium-term growth challenges are likely worse than before, and public finances are in a more precarious state. Risks are skewed downwards given a difficult near-term financing situation, rising inflationary—and potentially BOP—pressures because of the war in Ukraine, an ongoing threat from the evolving pandemic, and the country’s high vulnerability to natural disasters.

Economic agglomeration and emissions reduction: Does high agglomeration in China's urban clusters lead to higher carbon intensity?

Urban clusters are areas that feature both high degrees of economic agglomeration and relatively serious pollution challenges; however, there is no unified conclusion regarding whether economic agglomeration is correlated with the increase of carbon emissions. In this study, we investigate the nonlinear impact of economic agglomeration on carbon intensity in urban clusters at different development stages using spatial econometric modeling. The urban clusters of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu–Chongqing, the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, and the Central Plains are selected as the research objects for this investigation. The development of urban clusters is categorized into primary, middle, late, and developed stages according to per capita GDP level and the proportion of the three major industries. The results indicate that economic agglomeration and carbon intensity in the six urban clusters are highly consistent from 2005 to 2019. In the primary development stage, economic agglomeration follows an inverted U-shaped pattern in relation to carbon intensity in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Middle Reaches of the Yangtze Riverand Chengdu–Chongqing, indicating that advancement of economic agglomeration reduces carbon intensity. In the late development stage, the effect of economic agglomeration on carbon intensity has a U-shaped pattern in Yangtze River and Pearl River Delta. The problems of diseconomies of scale caused by excessive economic agglomeration lead to an increase in regional carbon intensity. Findings can provide a reference for urban clusters in other developing countries to formulate reasonable and effective policies in the process of agglomeration.

The economic and trade effects of the UK–Korea free trade agreement on the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the European Union

AbstractWe explored a comparative static computable general equilibrium model with six regions and 12 sectors to estimate the impacts of the recent UK–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) along with the European Union (EU)–Korea FTA. The empirical results provide quantitative evidence of the impact on national GDP, national exports and imports by sector, and the changes in exports or imports among the United Kingdom, Korea, Japan, China, and the EU. The UK–Korea FTA, along with the EU–Korea FTA, increases GDP and welfare for the United Kingdom and Korea; moreover, there is a large increase in automobiles, transport equipment, and machinery exports between Korea and the United Kingdom. The GDP and welfare level of non‐member countries such as Japan and China will slightly decline. Exports from the United Kingdom and Korea to non‐member countries are also expected to decrease in most manufacturing sectors. The UK–Korea FTA will lead to increases in imports between the United Kingdom and Korea due to mutual trade creation effects and trade diversion effects. However, non‐member countries such as Japan's exports are expected to experience a large decline in automobiles to the United Kingdom and in most manufacturing products to Korea due to the negative impact of the UK–Korea FTA.

Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004

The purpose of the following article is to present the situation of the energy market from a household perspective between 2010 and 2020 in selected EU countries (the group of member states which joined EU after 2004). The selected countries when joining the EU had similar economic indicators and to some extent were similar in other macro-economic situations (personal income, unemployment rate, GDP level and annual growth). This article analyzes the past and current situation of the household ability expenditure on electricity and energy resources (petrol—eurosuper 95 and diesel and natural gas), taking into account price, tax conditions and the real possibility to purchase the analyzed energy sources (based on annual net salaries). The paper includes the conclusions and prospects for the future. The main objective of the study is to determine the ability amount of expenditure on electricity, natural gas and liquid fuels by household in the countries that joined the European Union after 2004. The specific objectives of the work include: the evolution of retail prices of energy sources in those countries and prices of electricity, natural gas and liquid fuels—petrol and diesel oil—in the research period from 2010 to 2020. The element that influences the final price, as assessed in this paper, is the share of taxes and compulsory charges imposed by the EU countries covered in this study. The result of the study presented inter alia that energy consumption structure did not change significantly, electricity prices were steadily growing in the countries under assessment, the use of liquid fuels—petrol and diesel oil—in the countries under study, grew over the study period. Furthermore, prices of fuel fluctuated over the period from 2010 to 2020 and during the COVID-19 pandemic, which broke out in March 2020, but did not cause any significant changes in the prices of energy carriers in the analyzed period, apart from the declines in the prices of eurosuper 95 and diesel.

Growth-at-risk and macroprudential policy design

This paper explores the foundations for the application of the empirical growth-at-risk (GaR) approach to the assessment and design of macroprudential policies. It starts considering a stylized benchmark linear specification of the empirical GaR approach in combination with a linear–quadratic social welfare criterion that rewards expected GDP growth and penalizes the gap between expected GDP growth and GaR. If the growth rate follows a normal distribution, this welfare criterion can be microfounded as consistent with expected utility maximization under preferences for GDP levels exhibiting constant absolute risk aversion. The benchmark formulation implies an optimal policy rule linear in the risk indicator and an optimal gap between expected growth and GaR that does not depend on the time-varying risk indicator and is inversely related to the cost-effectiveness of macroprudential policy and the risk preference parameter. Extensions of the benchmark formulation show the potential to adapt the analysis and its insights to the richer specifications typically considered in empirical work.

CHINA'S COMPETITIVENESS AS AN INVESTOR FOR RUSSIA IN GENERAL AND FOR THE ENERGY SECTOR IN PARTICULAR

The article the assessment of the China competitiveness is carried out taking into account geopolitical and economic factors. In terms of geopolitics, attention is paid to such initiatives as “Pivot to the East”, “One Belt One Road” and the initiative of countering the spread of COVID-19. In the context of economic indicators, an integral assessment of China's competitiveness as an investor is conducted on the basis of such indicators as the level of GDP, the global competitiveness index, the indicator of investment activity of China in the world and in Russia, as well as the indicator of investment activity in the energy sector of Russia, the number of Chinese investment energy projects and their current number. Based on the results of the analysis, it is concluded that, China has an exceptional competitive advantage from the point of view of geopolitics and macroeconomics. However, within the energy sector, China has been losing ground due to a decrease in investment activity.

Economic burden of premature deaths attributable to non-optimum temperatures in Italy: A nationwide time-series analysis from 2015 to 2019

BackgroundHuman beings and society are experiencing substantial consequences caused by non-optimum temperatures. However, limited studies have assessed the economic burden of premature deaths attributable to non-optimum temperatures. ObjectivesTo characterize the association between daily mean temperature and the economic burden of premature deaths. MethodsA total of 3 228 098 deaths were identified from a national mortality dataset in Italy during 2015 and 2019. We used the value of statistical life to quantify the economic losses of premature death. A two-stage time-series analysis was performed to evaluate the economic losses of premature deaths associated with non-optimum temperatures. Attributable burden for non-optimum temperatures compared with minimum risk temperature were estimated. Potential effect modifiers were further explored. ResultsFrom 2015 to 2019, the economic loss of premature deaths due to non-optimum temperatures was $525.52 billion (95% CI: $461.84–$580.80 billion), with the attributable fraction of 5.74% (95% CI: 5.04%–6.34%). Attributable economic burden was largely due to moderate cold temperatures ($309.54 billion, 95% CI: $249.49–$357.34 billion). A higher economic burden was observed for people above the age of 65, accounting for 75.97% ($452.42, 95%CI: $406.97–$488.76 billion) of the total economic burden. In particular, higher fractions attributable to heat temperatures were observed for provinces with the lowest level of GDP per capita but the highest level of urbanization. DiscussionThis study shows a considerable economic burden of premature deaths attributed to non-optimum temperatures. These figures can help inform tailored prevention to tackle the large economic burden imposed by non-optimum temperatures.

EVALUASI KADAR GLUKOSA DARAH PASIEN DIABETES MELITUS TIPE 2 DENGAN HIPERTENSI DI RUANG CEMPAKA RUMAH SAKIT PANTI WILASA CITARUM SEMARANG

Diabetes mellitus is a degenerative disease that increases every year in the world. The most common case of DM is a case of type 2 DM (90%). Type 2 DM with hypertension is one of the ten biggest diseases in Panti Wilasa Citarum Hospital Semarang. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and calculate the value of decreasing blood glucose levels. The type of research conducted was descriptive observational using a prospective method. The study was conducted in Cempaka Room at Panti Wilasa Citarum Hospital Semarang in the period March-April 2019. The research subjects were patients aged 18-60 years with National Health Insurance who met the inclusion-exclusion criteria who were willing to be respondents in this study. Data is processed and analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. The results showed that the target blood glucose level of type 2 DM patients with hypertension at Panti Wilasa Citarum Hospital Semarang was achieved. Patients experienced a decrease in GD2JPP and GDP levels in single antidiabetic therapy of 73.68%, two combinations of antidiabetic 95%, three combinations of antidiabetic 100%.

Would a zero-growth economy be achievable and be sustainable?

The argument for zero economic growth comes from environmental sustainability considerations. But can zero economic growth be achieved in a demand-driven economy? What are the macro conditions under which it could be achieved, and would it be sustainable? There is a range of issues which would have to be resolved if a zero-growth economy is to be achieved and sustained. The first concerns the routes through which net investment would be constrained to zero. The second relates to the issue of whether the rate of profit would go to zero in a zero-growth economy, and hence the question of whether zero growth is compatible with capitalism. Or are there routes such as continual budget deficits and reduced savings which would maintain a non-zero rate of profit? And then whether budget deficits and reduced savings are sustainable. The third relates to the nature of the banking system (and any related monetary growth imperative) and the implications of sustained zero/negative rates of interest. An outcome of zero growth would obviously involve a constant level of GDP (though not necessarily of economic and social activity). Would there be forces which generate a supply of labour larger than ‘full employment’, and would productivity continue to rise?

Sustainable Competitiveness: How Does Global Competitiveness Index Relate to Economic Performance Accompanied by the Sustainable Development?

The research under discussion remains whether higher competitiveness of a country brings higher economic performance and sustainable growth, e.g., in the V4 region. The objective of the paper is to provide the results of extensive research based on verified Eurostat data to explore this research challenge in the V4 countries during the period of 2007-2019. Simultaneously, the objective is to link the country’s economic performance (GDP) to urgent challenges of the contemporary world in the form of sustainability and life quality. In the paper, linear regression, multiple linear regression, and ANOVA were used. A significant impact of the Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) on the level of GDP, and the subsequent positive effect of GDP level on sustainability and life quality indicators has been demonstrated. Our research findings propose an unconventional sustainable competitiveness mechanism. The conclusion outlines the direction from improved competitiveness through higher economic performance reinforcing R&D expenditure and high-tech employment to better sustainability and well-being. Moreover, the research results bring initial empirical evidence of the functionality of the proposed mechanism in the V4 countries. Based on this, we can offer policymakers the key research findings pointing at the sustained economic growth accompanied by higher ecology, including life quality. At the same time, the drivers of this development are presented in more detail in our paper.

Growing inequality during the Great Recession: Labour market institutions and the education gap in unemployment across Europe and in the United States.

We study how the education gap in unemployment has evolved by gender and age groups across 28 European countries and the United States from 2000 to 2014, using the European Union's Labour Force Surveys and the US Current Population Surveys. During and after the Great Recession, the absolute education gap in unemployment expanded in almost all countries, which was mainly driven by a marked increase in the unemployment risk among low educated men. A two-step multilevel analysis confirmed the negative relationship between the education gap and both (lagged) GDP growth and GDP level. Further, institutional labour market features moderated the impact of the business cycle. A higher share of temporary employment boosted employment for less educated persons, thus flattening the education gradient in unemployment, while a larger public sector somewhat protected more highly educated individuals against unemployment. The gap for young workers was large in settings with strict regular contract regulations.

Assessment of the Development of Poverty in EU Countries.

The aim of the article is to assess of development of poverty in EU countries in 2010 and 2019. The study used the model method of the linear ordering of objects—TOPSIS, considering the distance of each object from both the pattern and the non-pattern development. The originality of the work consists in the use of primary data obtained from the Eurostat database and the winsorized data that were created on the basis of outliers. The indicators characterizing the first goal of sustainable development—“No poverty” were used. The results of the research indicate that the inhabitants of western Europe and Scandinavia are less affected by poverty than the population of eastern and southern Europe. The division of countries according to the scale of poverty is reflected in the level of GDP per capita.

A scenario analysis of Chinese carbon neutral based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model.

With the statement of Chinese government on energy saving in 2020 at the United Nations General Assembly, carbon neutral was widely spread as a new concept. As a big country, China has the responsibility and obligation to make its own contribution to global climate change. This paper aims to explore and find effective ways for China to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. We identify the main factors affecting carbon emissions by STIRPAT model; combined with the scenario analysis, we divide the year 2020 to 2060 into three stages: year 2020-2030 is carbon peak stage, year 2030-2050 is rapid emission reduction stage, and year 2050-2060 is complete carbon neutralization stage. At each stage, three development models, high, medium, and low level, were established. There are a total of 27 different scenarios in three stages. A system dynamics model was established to simulate the effects of carbon emission factors and changes in carbon sinks in different scenarios. Finally, 8 paths were found which in line with Chinese current goal of achieving carbon neutrality with treating reach carbon peak in 2030 as an additional filter condition. Comparing per capita GDP levels in different scenarios, we eventually find that keeping economic development at a low level in the first stage, a high level in the second stage, and a medium level in the finally stage, the point where net carbon emissions are less than zero for the first time will appear between year 2056 and 2057. By then, the per capita GDP will reach 144,500 yuan (based on year 2000), nearly four times 2000's. In all, these findings are helpful for policymakers to implement reasonable policies to achieve carbon emission peaking and carbon neutral in China.

Foreign direct investment, capital accumulation, and growth: The rise of the Emerging South

Using a unique dataset on bilateral FDI flows between 1990 and 2012, we analyze the heterogeneous growth effects of FDI originating from the North, the Emerging South, and the South in each country group. After controlling for the aggregation bias, sample selection bias, country heterogeneity, and endogeneity issues, and using various estimation techniques and robustness tests, we detect no long-run effects of FDI on the host country per capita GDP growth, independent of its direction. However, we find a significantly positive effect on long-run levels of GDP per capita in the sub-country groups of North–North, Emerging-North, and South-Emerging. The effects are stronger for countries with similar institutional development levels.

The Impact of Economic Sustainability in the Transport Sector on GDP of Neighbouring Countries: Following the Example of the Baltic States

Transport is very important for the economy and the society because good transport infrastructure helps to improve the mobility of citizens and the traffic of goods, thus ensuring economic sustainability. Background: The European Union (hereinafter—EU) plans to maintain support for the development of transport infrastructure in individual member states. Lithuania’s role as a transit country in the EU’s transport network is of great importance; therefore, efficient transport services and appropriate infrastructure can not only support the domestic market and economic and social growth of the country, but also promote positive economic, social, and political processes in other countries and ensure EU’s strategic defence movement channels. Methods: The study was conducted using econometric methods, including correlation analysis and a regression model, to assess the selected parameters of the transport sector of Lithuania as a transit country and their impact on the real gross domestic product (hereinafter—RGDP) of the selected Baltic states (Latvia and Estonia). Results: The study identified a combination of key factors in the Lithuanian transport sector that affect differences in the level of real GDP per capita. Conclusions: The findings revealed differences in the context of relation between RGDP per capita in the three Baltic states and indicators of the Lithuanian transport sector.

Cerebrospinal fluid purinomics as a biomarker approach to predict outcome after severe traumatic brain injury.

Severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) is associated with high rates of mortality and long-term disability linked to neurochemical abnormalities. Although purine derivatives play important roles in TBI pathogenesis in preclinical models, little is known about potential changes in purine levels and their implications in human TBI. We assessed cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) levels of purines in severe TBI patients as potential biomarkers that predict mortality and long-term dysfunction. This was a cross-sectional study performed in 17 severe TBI patients (Glasgow Coma Scale <8) and 51 controls. Two to 4h after admission to ICU, patients were submitted to ventricular drainage and CSF collection for quantification of adenine and guanine purine derivatives by HPLC. TBI patients' survival was followed up to 3days from admission. A neurofunctional assessment was performed through the modified Rankin Scale (mRS) 2 years after ICU admission. Purine levels were compared between control and TBI patients, and between surviving and non-surviving patients. Relative to controls, TBI patients presented increased CSF levels of GDP, guanosine, adenosine, inosine, hypoxanthine, and xanthine. Further, GTP, GDP, IMP, and xanthine levels were different between surviving and non-surviving patients. Among the purines, guanosine was associated with improved mRS (p=0.042; r=-0.506). Remarkably, GTP displayed predictive value (AUC=0.841, p=0.024) for discriminating survival versus non-survival patients up to 3days from admission. These results support TBI-specific purine signatures, suggesting GTP as a promising biomarker of mortality and guanosine as an indicator of long-term functional disability.

Economic affordability of food as a component of the economic security of Ukraine.

Economic security can be considered as an economic aspect of the life of an individual or household that provides the opportunity to achieve financial stability and improve living standards. In this context, understanding the impact of economic affordability of food on the economic security of the country is of great importance. The authors propose to use the indicator of economic affordability of food for in-depth analysis of the economic security of the country. Indicators that determine the level of economic affordability of food products in Ukraine for 2000–2018 are calculated. The regression analysis made it possible to establish a close relationship between the indicators of food expenditures and the level of GDP per capita, between the level of income and expenditure of food of decile groups. Correlation coefficients between the consumption of six basic foodstuffs and the level of per capita income in Ukraine are determined. The obtained indicators, which determine the economic affordability of food, allow us to conclude that there is a lack of economic protection at the level of individual low-income households. Overcoming economic instability and minimizing the possible consequences of the low level of economic affordability of food should become one of the main tasks of Ukraine’s economic security.

Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?

Abstract Since the Great Recession in 2007–2009, U.S. real GDP has failed to return to its previously projected path, a phenomenon widely associated with secular stagnation. We investigate whether this stagnation was due to hysteresis effects from the Great Recession, a persistent negative output gap following the recession, or slower trend growth for other reasons. To do so, we develop a new Markov-switching time series model of output growth that accommodates two different types of recessions: those that permanently alter the level of real GDP and those with only temporary effects. We also account for structural change in trend growth. Estimates from our model suggest that the Great Recession generated a large, persistent negative output gap rather than any substantial hysteresis effects, with the economy eventually recovering to a lower trend path that appears to be due to a reduction in productivity growth that began prior to the onset of the Great Recession.