GDP Growth Research Articles

Çinin Kəmər və Yol Təşəbbüsü: İqtisadi və Geosiyasi Təsirlərin Təhlili

China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is a major strategic project designed to serve international trade, geopolitical influence, and economic development objectives. Its implementation has altered the composition of China’s foreign assets, affecting liquidity and revenue indicators. However, the outcomes of these investments have not been as profitable as anticipated, raising questions about their economic efficiency. The BRI’s direct impact on exports and GDP growth has been limited, although it has contributed to diversifying trade routes and reducing geopolitical distances to some extent. From a geopolitical perspective, the BRI has expanded China’s trade partnerships and sphere of influence, achieving positive outcomes, particularly in the Global South. Nonetheless, tensions with Western countries have escalated, occasionally leading to counterproductive results for the initiative. The military implications of the BRI remain in an early stage of evaluation. This article explores how successful the BRI has been in achieving China’s objectives against the backdrop of economic indicators and geopolitical relations.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN AGRICULTURE: ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES

This study compares certain environmental and economic indicators at Turkey, European Union (EU), OECD countries and global level in the context of sustainable development. The study analyses sustainability differences between countries by examining indicators such as CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption, GDP growth rate, methane emissions from agriculture and freshwater withdrawal. The findings show that Turkey is at higher levels in terms of carbon emissions compared to OECD and EU countries, while it lags behind developed countries in renewable energy consumption. In order to eliminate these differences in Turkey's sustainable development performance, there is a need to increase the use of renewable energy resources and environmentally friendly policies to reduce carbon emissions. The study also suggests that Turkey should focus on environmental policies for sustainable management of water resources and reduction of methane emissions from agriculture.

Analysis of Factors Affecting Broad Money of Five ASEAN Countries

This study evaluates the factors that influence the broad money of five ASEAN countries. Global economic uncertainty due to financial crises, geopolitical conflicts and pandemics has affected the region's economic stability. Central banks have a role in controlling broad money through monetary policy, but its effectiveness is affected by other factors such as GDP, interest rates and inflation. Moreover, the relationship between GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates with broad money is a major concern, as the trend of broad money growth in the 5 ASEAN countries continues to increase every year. The balance between broad money and price stability is crucial to prevent economic stress that could lead to a recession. Therefore, this study focuses on an in-depth analysis of the factors that influence money supply to help the government make decisions. The research sample consists of 100 data with five ASEAN countries, namely Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines and Malaysia with a time series of 2004-2023. This methodology uses a mixed approach, namely quantitative with secondary data from the World Bank & IMF with LSDV analysis. It was found that the adjusted r square value was 97%, which means that GDP, interest rates, and inflation used were able to explain the money supply of 5 ASEAN countries by 97% and 3% was influenced by other factors outside this study. GDP was found to have no significant effect while interest rates have a significant negative effect and inflation has a significant positive effect on the broad money of 5 ASEAN countries. The government is expected to better analyze the policies and actions taken, such as managing monetary policy wisely, especially in maintaining the stability of inflation and interest rates so that the money supply can be well controlled.

Long Short Term Memory For Comparison Between Bank Syariah Indonesia And PT Bank Artos Indonesia Shares

The growth of the capital market in Indonesia has increased from year to year. Based on data from the Indonesia Central Securities Corporation (KSEI), there has been an increase in investor growth in the capital market by 2.34%, mutual funds by 2.44%, and shares by 1.34% until August 2024. The demographic of individual investors in the capital market is dominated by Generation Z who are younger than from 30 years as much as 55.07% in August 2024 (KSEI, 2024). Shares are a form of investment that has the potential for large profits but with small risks. One sector that Gen Z is interested in investing in is the financial sector. The aim of this research is to compare the share prices of Bank Syariah Indonesia and Bank PT Ban Artos Indonesia Tbk using a Neural Network with the Long Short Term Memory (LTSM) algorithm. The data used in this research is secondary data on BSI and PT Bank Artos Indonesia Tbk share prices taken from the investing.com website. The data period used is from 01 September 2021 – 01 September 2024. Based on the results of stock price forecasting using a Neural Network with the LTSM algorithm, RMSE value for both models is for BSI 75.0757 and 91.795 for PT. Bank Artos Indonesia Tbk. A comparison of the predicted share prices of PT Bank Arto Indonesia Tbk and BSI shows that BSI's share price performance is superior to that of PT Bank Arto Indonesia Tbk.

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on India's Sectoral and Regional Economic Growth: An Analytical Study

The research investigates how Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) affects Indian development by studying its sectorial and geographical placements. The research evaluates how FDI affects GDP growth, industrial expansion, and employment generation and establishes what draws investors to India. The research uses data from the DPIIT Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade and secondary sources to conduct statistical assessments of FDI movements and their economic impact. The highest inflow of foreign direct investment segments between services, computer software, hardware, and trading, but the states of Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat receive the most investments because they offer robust infrastructure and supportive policies. The available investment capital mainly flows toward sections of India that already possess adequate development, which produces unequal distribution throughout the country. The tax treaties between Mauritius and Singapore make them dominant sources of FDI in the country. The report advises implementing new policies because it suggests establishing updated regulations with infrastructure initiatives alongside special incentives for upcoming technology sectors. The Indian economy needs to solve investment inequality and administrative bottlenecks to improve its appeal to worldwide investors. Ministerial and investor groups can use the findings to develop strategies that maximize their FDI-mediated economic expansion.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the Economic Implications, Challenges, and Opportunities of Electric Vehicle Adoption in Indonesia

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a recognized solution for lowering greenhouse gas emissions and decreasing oil dependency, especially in Indonesia. Existing studies have explored the economic impact, challenges, and opportunities of EV adoption separately, lacking a holistic analysis. This study addresses this gap by providing a comprehensive assessment of the economic implications, challenges, and opportunities of EV adoption in Indonesia through a systematic literature review of 65 peer-reviewed articles, industry reports, and reputable publications from 2016 to 2024. The document analysis involved keyword-based literature selection, content analysis of economic metrics, and synthesis into key thematic areas. The findings reveal that EV sales in Indonesia have been rising annually, influenced by cost, driving range, environmental impact, technological features, charging infrastructure, battery, and government policies and incentives. EV adoption has positively impacted Indonesia’s GDP, attracted Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), created jobs, and reduced fuel consumption and imports. However, several challenges persist, including high EV costs, inadequate charging infrastructure, societal readiness, battery replacement costs and waste management, and limited model variety. Despite these challenges, opportunities exist in the form of market growth, FDI from nickel resources, energy security, job creation, and industrial expansion. Recommendations for creating a conducive EV ecosystem are provided for relevant stakeholders.

Developing a Strategic Plan for RDA Nutrition Hub Using SWOT-TOWS Matrix: Basis for Optimal Business Growth

Health and nutrition are prerequisites for social, mental, and physical well-being. This allows individuals to value a healthy lifestyle and contribute significantly to their communities. This study uses the SWOT-TOWS matrix to explore the strategic planning for RDA Nutrition Hub, a café- inspired business that offers plant-based food products. The analysis aims to identify the company's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats and develop a strategic plan for optimal market growth. This strategic plan is essential for RDA Nutrition Hub to thrive in the market, ensuring sustainable development and customer satisfaction while taking advantage of the opportunities and addressing critical challenges.

Public Debt and Banking Sector Stability in Nigeria

In the last decade, the Nigerian debt burden has been increasing at an unsustainable rate. Debt management is also perceived as an important factor that underpinned the stability and credibility of the banking financial sector. This study examined the impact of public debt on banking sector financial stability in Nigeria from 1986-2023. The variables include, banking sector stability index, public debt/GDP ratio, consumer price index and government expenditure, consumer price index, and GDP growth. The sources data were the Central Bank of Nigeria and National Bureau of Statistics. The techniques utilized in the study include the autoregressive distributed lag model and the Granger causality test. Finding showed that public debt has a negative and significant impact on bank stability, while the Granger causality results show that while public debt does not predict banking stability, banking sector stability is a leading indicator of changes in public debt. Based on the findings, government should adopt more prudent debt management strategies to reduce the negative impact of public debt on banking stability. This could include limiting excessive borrowing and ensuring fiscal discipline to prevent short-term financial market disruptions and long-term instability in the banking sector. Key word: public debt, banking sector stability, consumer price index, GDP growth

MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS IN THE U.S. CAPITAL MARKET: THEORETICAL FOUNDATIONS, MARKET DYNAMICS, AND STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

This study explores the theoretical foundations, market dynamics, and strategic implications of mergers and acquisitions (M&A) within the U.S. capital market, aiming to identify key theories, assess previous research, and provide insights into corporate consolidation trends. The objectives include examining fundamental M&A theories, analyzing financial and regulatory market dynamics, reviewing valuation methods and post-merger integration challenges, and understanding the strategic implications for corporate growth and shareholder value. Using a literature review methodology, the study synthesizes academic research, industry reports, and empirical studies to evaluate theories such as agency theory, synergy theory, and resource-based perspectives alongside empirical evidence on deal structures, financing mechanisms, and post-merger performance. The findings indicate that financial synergies, market expansion, regulatory influences, and competitive pressures drive M&A transactions. Moreover, the study posits that for a successful M&A deal, due diligence, valuation accuracy, and integration strategies are key. The study also highlights the impact of evolving market conditions, technological advancements, and policy changes on M&A trends. In conclusion, M&A remains a vital strategy for corporate growth and market positioning in the U.S. capital market, though no single theory fully explains all M&A activities. KEYWORDS: Mergers, Acquisitions, U.S. Capital Market, Market Dynamics, Strategic Implications, Corporate Growth, Valuation, Regulation.

Innovative Model and International Market Exploitation of Fabric Export Trade

This study analyzes the innovation models adopted by fabric export enterprises, exploring their role in international market expansion, competitiveness enhancement, brand recognition, and supply chain efficiency. Through empirical analysis, it provides theoretical support and practical guidance for fabric exporters. A multi-method research design is applied, including case studies, questionnaire surveys, data analysis, and literature review. First, representative enterprises were selected for case studies to examine the impact of cross-border e-commerce platforms, digital supply chains, and green supply chains. Second, a questionnaire survey of 100 fabric exporters was conducted to assess the adoption and effectiveness of these models in international market expansion. Lastly, quantitative analysis was used to identify trade trends, and existing research findings were summarized. The results show that innovation models significantly enhance market expansion and competitiveness. Cross-border e-commerce enables SMEs to enter international markets quickly and achieve precise marketing; digital supply chain management improves flexibility, and efficiency, and reduces costs; while green supply chains help companies succeed in markets with higher environmental standards. These innovations not only increase market share but also enhance brand influence. However, challenges remain in terms of capital, technology, and cross-cultural communication. Future research should expand the sample scope, explore regional and enterprise-specific applications, and analyze underlying mechanisms. Overall, fabric exporters must continuously adapt to global market changes and refine innovation models to secure sustainable competitive advantages in the international market.

Factor Network Autoregressions

We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents (“multilayer network”), which are summarized into a smaller number of network matrices (“network factors”) through a novel tensor-based principal component approach. We provide consistency and asymptotic normality results for the estimation of the factors, their loadings, and the coefficients of the FNAR, as the number of layers, nodes and time points diverges to infinity. Our approach combines two different dimension-reduction techniques and can be applied to high-dimensional datasets. Simulation results show the goodness of our estimators in finite samples. In an empirical application, we use the FNAR to investigate the cross-country interdependence of GDP growth rates based on a variety of international trade and financial linkages. The model provides a rich characterization of macroeconomic network effects as well as good forecasts of GDP growth rates.

The division of revenues from unexpected demand shocks

AbstractWe exploit gaps between observed and recently forecasted GDP growth in export destinations to estimate the effects of unexpected demand shocks on worker compensation. Using employer–employee panel data, we find that the revenues from these demand shocks are partly transmitted to workers in the form of higher average wages, especially close to the top of the within‐firm wage distribution. These wage responses occur in the form of both higher overtime payment and base wage increases. We also find significant increases in bonus‐related pay in firms managed by highly skilled managers, and the unequal average distribution of unexpected revenues is also mainly driven by wage effects in the same subset of firms. This suggests that the way in which revenues from unexpected demand shocks are transmitted to workers is significantly related to managerial capabilities.

Comparative Evaluation of Qualitative and Nutraceutical Parameters in Fresh Fruit and Processed Products of ‘Lady Cot’ and Vesuvian ‘Pellecchiella’ Apricot Cultivars

Apricot cultivation plays a significant role in Italy’s agricultural landscape, with the country hosting a wide variety of traditional and international cultivars, and their cultivation, processing and transformation offer a wide margin for market expansion. Jam preparation is an ideal method to preserve apricots, and understanding their functional properties is crucial for achieving high-quality products. Vesuvian autochthonous cultivars, in particular, stand out for their unique organoleptic and nutraceutical traits, which are closely linked to the region’s pedo-climatic conditions. This study investigated two apricot cultivars, the Vesuvian ‘Pellecchiella’ and the international ‘Lady Cot’, to assess their physicochemical properties and evaluate the variation in bioactive components during the transformation process from fresh fruit to puree and jam. The two cultivars exhibited distinct phenotypic differences. The ‘Lady Cot’ produced larger fruits (61.04 g vs. 45.68 g for the ‘Pellecchiella’) with a redder epicarp coloration, making it more visually appealing for commercial purposes. Conversely, the ‘Pellecchiella’ showed higher total soluble solids (TSS) and lower titratable acidity (TA), resulting in a sweeter flavor profile that may be preferred by consumers. Specifically, the ‘Pellecchiella’ exhibited a significantly higher polyphenol content, with catechin and epicatechin levels higher by 338% and 167%, respectively. The study further analyzed the variation in nutraceutical components in the puree and jam (carotenoids, total polyphenols, and antioxidant activity by ABTS, DPPH and FRAP), throughout the processing stages. Both cultivars showed a reduction in these parameters during the transformation process. For instance, the total polyphenol content exhibited a similar reduction of approximately 61% in both cultivars. However, the ‘Pellecchiella’ retained higher values in the jam, reflecting its naturally higher initial levels in the fresh fruit, and showed higher Redness Index. Overall, the results highlight ‘Pellecchiella’ as a cultivar having superior nutraceutical properties and good bioactive compound retention during processing, making it a valuable choice for both fresh consumption and processed products. These findings have significant implications for the functional food sector, as they underscore the importance of cultivar selection and processing strategies to preserve valuable bioactive compounds. By leveraging the natural advantages of local cultivars like ‘Pellecchiella’, producers could develop premium jams or puree-based functional products aimed at health-conscious consumers.

Transforming Saudi Arabia’s workforce: HR management strategies in action

This research seeks to explore the role of Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030 in transforming the workforce through human resource management strategies. The study focuses on how this vision affects policy renewal and the development of the work environment in line with a diversified knowledge-based economy. As for the design and methodology, this research paper relied on a descriptive methodology based on studying current literature and government reports, in addition to analyzing secondary data related to human resources in the Kingdom. The focus was on strategies such as digital transformation in human resources while enhancing Saudization and developing national skills, in addition to considering the role of international partnerships, such as cooperation with the International Labor Organization. The results of the study showed that Vision 2030 has resulted in significant development in the human resources sector in Saudi Arabia, as digital technologies have been adopted in employee management and there has been a significant increase in women's participation in the workforce. It was also shown that localization and continuous training programs have contributed to bridging skills gaps and achieving sustainable growth in the local market. The results also indicate that Vision 2030 is not just an economic plan, but rather a comprehensive transformation that reshapes the labor market in the Kingdom. The study indicates that challenges related to skills, adapting to automation, and changing workforce expectations still exist. Saudi Arabia's investments in human capital are expected to contribute to achieving sustainability and sustainable growth in the future. As for the scientific implications of this study, it emphasizes the importance of adopting effective strategies in human resources management, such as activating digital solutions, enhancing women's participation, and developing local skills. Companies and institutions in the Kingdom must also focus on innovation, providing continuous training, and strengthening partnerships between the public and private sectors to ensure success in achieving the goals of Vision 2030 and achieving a positive transformation in the workforce in a sustainable manner.

Human capital and regional disparities: Advancing accounting frameworks with education, health, and population dynamics.

This study advances the inclusive wealth accounting of human capital (HC) to improve global research on the valuation of HC for sustainability. By innovatively integrating complex population dynamics, including schooling and labor force participation, and using a net present value (NPV) valuation method aligned with capital budgeting principles, we quantitatively measure HC in 165 countries. As a methodological advancement, we use a unified framework that incorporates education, health and economic participation via the measurement of life expectancy in different life stages to inform sustainable development investments. Our analysis from 1990 to 2020 reveals significant differences in HC development across countries. While education is strongly correlated with GDP growth, disparities in health and economic participation are critical barriers to long-term HC accumulation. Our findings argue for a comprehensive policy approach that goes beyond investing in education for its financial benefits and includes substantial improvements in health and economic opportunities to promote more equitable HC growth. We emphasize the need to incorporate complex population dynamics into HC assessments to better understand and strengthen the interdependencies between these critical factors, with the aim of reducing global development gaps.

Assessing the future influence of tourism-related factors on economic growth in selected south Asian countries through a random forest approach

The study applies sophisticated machine learning techniques to measure the effect induced by important tourism indicators upon the GDP of six South Asian countries from 2001–2019. Among the models tested, the Random Forest model demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy, making it the most effective approach for analyzing GDP determinants in the region. It was determined from a World Development Indicators dataset analysis through the use of a Random Forest model what were the main determinants behind GDP growth for all countries in the area. Tourist arrivals and international tourism expenditure are good indicators of economic growth, while the unemployment rate and population growth have only minor effects. Other tourism-related factors contribute very significantly toward explaining any possible variation in GDP growth. Therefore, these results are important from the standpoint of the formulation of policies related to tourism toward maximizing its contribution to the economies of South Asia. For such policies to result in maximizing contributions from tourism, investments need to focus on the development of tourism infrastructure and international marketing to effect sustainable tourism development environments. Such policies are also very important with respect to unemployment and demographics. This work offers an evidence-based perspective to inform policymakers in developing investment in tourism infrastructure, international tourism promotion, and sustainable tourism practice. Such investment will greatly empower the South Asian economies to reconfigure tourism as a key driver of sustained economic growth and globally improved competitiveness.

Examining the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Land Use Conflicts from an Ecological Security Perspective: A Case Study of Tianshui City, China

Land use conflicts represent an increasing challenge to sustainable development, particularly in regions undergoing rapid urbanization. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use conflicts and their ecological implications in Tianshui City from 1980 to 2020. The main objectives were to identify patterns of spatial heterogeneity, explore the driving factors behind these conflicts, and analyze their relationship with the ecological risks. The results indicate the following findings. In terms of spatiotemporal heterogeneity, early land use changes were primarily driven by structural factors, such as topography and climate, with a Nugget/Still ratio of <0.30 observed from 1980 to 2000. After 2000, however, stochastic factors, including an average annual urbanization rate increase of 5.2% and a GDP growth rate of 9.1%, emerged as the dominant drivers, as reflected in a Nugget/Still ratio > 0.36. Regarding conflict intensity, high-conflict areas expanded by approximately 1110 square kilometers between 1980 and 2020, predominantly concentrated in fertile agricultural regions such as the Weihe River Basin and urban core areas. Conversely, non-conflict zones decreased by 38.7%. In terms of ecological risk correlation, bivariate LISA cluster analysis revealed a significant spatial autocorrelation between severe land use conflicts and ecological risks (Moran’s I = 0.62, p < 0.01). High-risk clusters in areas transitioning from arable land to built-up land increased by 23% after 2000. Predictions based on the future land-use simulation (FLUS) model suggest that by 2030, high-intensity conflict areas will expand by an additional 16%, leading to intensified competition for land resources. Therefore, incorporating ecological safety thresholds into land spatial planning policies is essential for reconciling the conflicts between development and conservation, thereby promoting sustainable land use transitions.

The Efficacy of the New Energy Vehicle Mandate Policy on Passenger Vehicle Market in China

This paper aims to assess the impact of the New Energy Vehicle (NEV) mandate policy on the passenger vehicle market in China, with a focus on its effectiveness in promoting NEV adoption. In response to global climate goals and energy security concerns, China has implemented various NEV policies, including the phase-out of direct subsidies and the introduction of the NEV mandate policy (dual-credits policy). This policy, which combines NEV credits and Corporate Average Fuel Consumption (CAFC) credits, aims not only to promote NEV adoption but also to support industrial policy objectives by helping the auto industry leapfrog traditional internal combustion engines and become globally competitive. In this study, a System Dynamics (SD) model was developed using Vensim software (10.2.2) to simulate interactions between automakers, government policies, and consumer behaviors. The results show that the NEV mandate policy significantly boosts NEV sales, with projections indicating that NEV sales will reach 15 million units by 2030, accounting for 55% of the passenger vehicle market. Additionally, the study finds that tightening NEV credits standards and increasing the NEV credit proportion requirements can further enhance market growth, with stricter measures post-2023 being crucial to achieving a 50% market share. In contrast, under a scenario where the dual-credits policy ends in 2024, the NEV market share would still grow but would fall short of the 50% target by 2030. The findings suggest that stronger policy measures will be essential to maintain long-term market momentum.

EVALUATION AND PRIORITIZATION OF MUTUAL FUNDS USING INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Investment has become increasingly important for individuals in today’s economic landscape, particularly regarding the growth of the capital market. A primary concern for investors is selecting the best investment options. When faced with complex decisions, such as choosing a mutual fund, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods can be used to prioritize options and make optimal choices. This study focuses on the Intuitionistic Fuzzy Analysis Hierarchy Process (IFAHP) technique. Given the significance of investment in the current economy, this study aims to apply and describe the IFAHP technique for ranking mutual funds listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. A total of 20 mutual funds were selected based on their size and superior performance compared to other mutual funds, utilizing statistics published by the Financial Information Processing Center of Iran. The mutual funds were evaluated and prioritized using the IFAHP technique, resulting in the following cumulative weights and final weights: Moshtarek Agah (0.6360, ranked 1), Sepehr Aval Bazar (0.6248, ranked 2), and Ofoghe Melat (0.6234, ranked 3) holding the highest priorities. Conversely, the mutual funds Firozeh Movafaghiat (0.4550, ranked 20), Toseh Atlas Mofid (0.4584, ranked 19), and Moshtarek Kargozari Bank Meli Iran (0.4803, ranked 18) have the lowest priorities for investment. Therefore, according to these results and their desired criteria, investors can identify the most suitable options for their investments to maximize their profits.

Assessment of the influence of internal and external factors on the Kazakhstan stock market

The purpose of this study is to identify internal and external factors and assess their impact on the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market.Research methodology. The work used comparative analysis, multiple regression analysis and factor analysis. Internal factors included real GDP growth rates, inflation rate and the national currency exchange rate. External factors were represented by world oil prices, the Russian ruble exchange rate and the Russian stock index.Originality/value of the study. The study provides valuable information on the dynamics of the Kazakhstan stock market and its dependence on key macroeconomic indicators. These data can be used to improve forecasting methods and decision-making in the market, which is important for investors and analysts.Research results. Based on the level of volatility and average yield, the entire analyzed period was divided into three sub-periods: favorable or a period of rapid market growth, unfavorable or a period of decline, and a period of moderate favorability or market recovery. The results of the analysis showed that the inflation rate and the Russian stock index have a significant impact on the Kazakhstan stock market. Inflation has the greatest impact, contributing to the growth of the index when its level increases. The Russian stock index also has a significant impact, demonstrating a high correlation with the KASE index. At the same time, the national currency rate and world oil prices showed a weak impact on the Kazakhstan stock market. A correlation matrix of returns of the main world stock indices was constructed.