Simulations of chemical reaction probabilities in gas surface dynamics require the calculation of ensemble averages over many tens of thousands of reaction events to predict dynamical observables that can be compared to experiments. At the same time, the energy landscapes need to be accurately mapped, as small errors in barriers can lead to large deviations in reaction probabilities. This brings a particularly interesting challenge for machine learning interatomic potentials, which are becoming well-established tools to accelerate molecular dynamics simulations. We compare state-of-the-art machine learning interatomic potentials with a particular focus on their inference performance on CPUs and suitability for high throughput simulation of reactive chemistry at surfaces. The considered models include polarizable atom interaction neural networks (PaiNN), recursively embedded atom neural networks (REANN), the MACE equivariant graph neural network, and atomic cluster expansion potentials (ACE). The models are applied to a dataset on reactive molecular hydrogen scattering on low-index surface facets of copper. All models are assessed for their accuracy, time-to-solution, and ability to simulate reactive sticking probabilities as a function of the rovibrational initial state and kinetic incidence energy of the molecule. REANN and MACE models provide the best balance between accuracy and time-to-solution and can be considered the current state-of-the-art in gas-surface dynamics. PaiNN models require many features for the best accuracy, which causes significant losses in computational efficiency. ACE models provide the fastest time-to-solution, however, models trained on the existing dataset were not able to achieve sufficiently accurate predictions in all cases.
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