A novel mixed-frequency deep learning forecasting model for natural resource prices: A case study of copper futures price

Abstract The transition to a future-proof water system requires timely development of knowledge and innovation. Futures studies is essential for research programs to identify new opportunities and threats and allow for timely agenda setting. We present a case study where the approach of futures studies was embedded in an applied research program (Waterwijs) for drinking water utilities in the Netherlands and Flanders. Futures studies was organized in a structured program component called ‘exploratory research’ that combined concepts of foresight and horizon scanning, the knowledge pyramid, and a theory of change approach. The outcomes show that futures research was valuable for the research program and the drinking water utilities who are its clients. It enabled the achievement of long-term program goals such as the development of new technologies, fast response to emerging issues and informed the strategy of water utilities. Recommendations for the adoption of futures studies in Waterwijs and similar programs based on the experiences from this case include developing a culture of co-creation and trust, a clear structure and management, and a good strategy for stakeholder engagement and knowledge transfer.

Alternative Economic Models (AEMs) are theoretical frameworks that, if implemented, could fundamentally transform economic systems by aligning financial objectives with sustainability goals. Conducting rigorous research on future-oriented AEMs and other complex sustainability systems presents challenges, particularly due to the exploration of largely unverifiable future possibilities. Qualitative models can enhance the completeness, insights, and communications of such research. However, the absence of comprehensive guidelines for ensuring and assessing the quality of future-oriented qualitative models raises concerns about their reliability. The aim of this paper is to improve the quality of qualitative models used in future- and sustainability-focused AEM research by defining three key aspects of model quality: (1) scientific validity; (2) scientific usefulness; and (3) practical usefulness. Drawing on diverse fields, including futures studies, modeling methodologies, and the philosophy of science, we identify 11 Model Quality Considerations (MQCs). These MQCs are tested and refined through two AEM model case applications. We propose a framework for model developers and evaluators to understand their roles and the interactions among MQCs. Our analysis reveals that some MQCs are inherently incompatible, making it impractical to fully satisfy all considerations in a single model. Instead, developing high-quality models requires strategically prioritizing quality aspects, based on the model’s intended purpose. The paper concludes by outlining directions for future research.

ABSTRACT Vietnam's rapid digital transformation presents a complex paradox: whilst the digital economy demonstrates exceptional growth exceeding 20% annually, the labour market exhibits deepening precarity and structural inequalities. This study employs a comprehensive Futures Studies approach, utilising Causal Layered Analysis (CLA), scenario planning, and the Futures Wheel, to examine Vietnam's digital labour dynamics through in‐depth interviews with 28 stakeholders across five categories: workers, employers, educators, policymakers, and futures experts. Grounded in Inayatullah's Six Pillars Framework for futures thinking, the research reveals four distinct layers of causality: surface trends showing accelerated digitisation and gig economy expansion; systemic causes including policy‐driven development and legal grey zones; worldviews characterised by pervasive techno‐optimism and partnership illusions; and deep myths positioning Vietnam as an “Asian Tiger” pursuing a “Digital Leapfrog.” Futures Wheel analysis maps the cascading impacts of widespread AI adoption, while scenario planning identifies four potential pathways, ranging from inclusive digital prosperity to stratified precarity. The findings demonstrate how surface‐level economic success can coexist with microeconomic vulnerability when social infrastructure fails to keep pace with technological advancements. This rigorous application of established Futures Studies methods provides empirical insights for managing digital labour transitions in emerging economies, contributing substantial case study evidence and practical policy insights for ensuring equitable development outcomes whilst leveraging technological opportunities.

BackgroundBiobank privacy policies remove identifiers from donated specimens, siloing patients, discounting multimodal data, and hindering precision medicine. Decentralized biobanking is a new paradigm that unlocks value by uniting patients, specimens, scientists, and physicians in a blockchain-backed platform with robust incentives, governance, and ethical oversight. Informed by a real-world pilot, this mixed methods futures study explores how we advance decentralized biobanking from theory to practice.ObjectiveThis study aimed to define the implementation strategy, synthesize pilot experiences into future vision, and highlight the implications and potential roadblocks.MethodsWe applied backcasting from 2021 to 2024 through ethnography, alignment exercises, surveys, interviews, site visits, and futures workshops to map biospecimen supply chains and define principles for decentralized biobanking, using a breast cancer biobank for prototyping and software development. A decentralized biobanking app was piloted to engage breast cancer biobank members in participatory visioning. Thematic analysis of pilot experiences revealed a technology-enabled future vision. We systematically analyzed the pilot event via a Futures Wheel, organizing participant quotes as first-order effects, indirect effects, and anticipated implications.ResultsBackcasting unveiled a pathway for designing an initial app for patients to track their biospecimens within institutional databases. We defined the “rails, rules, and tools” for a long-term, effective, and structurally just Biomediverse. Pilot enrollment was robust, and concurrent biobank enrollment was increased. Qualitative themes revealed impact on dignity, recognition, understanding, belonging, ownership, and empowerment. A vision for the future emerged from user journeys: “From ‘Lab Rat’ to Research Partner,” vividly depicted as a path transitioning from sterile graveyard to flourishing community garden. Primary themes were matched to first-order effects, indirect effects, and future implications, culminating in gratitude and unity, network effects reinforced by reciprocity, as well as potential for compensation and precision medicine.ConclusionsReconnecting patients with their donated biospecimens via decentralized biobanking apps unlocks value for patients and aligns incentives across the Biomediverse. We illuminate the future person-centered biomedical data economy and put forward the goal of enabling all US biospecimen donors with decentralized biobanking by 2030.

Capturing the expanding research areas of the future of humanity within the field of futures studies: The case for a transcendental futures subdiscipline

The integration of artificial intelligence into English language curricula transcends mere technological upgrading, presenting a fundamental philosophical crossroads for the field of education. At present, the application of AI is largely confined to unstructured, individual practices, lacking a coherent pedagogical foundation or a comprehensive curricular vision. This study, designed as a futures research project, aims to interrogate how this inevitable integration ought to unfold, focusing on its philosophical underpinnings and pedagogical consequences. Employing an exploratory and qualitative scenario analysis methodology, the study develops two contrasting future scenarios: one where AI functions as an "Authority/Master" (Scenario A), and another where it acts as a "Peer" (Scenario B). The findings reveal that Scenario A constitutes a behaviorist restoration, confining learners to the lowest rungs of intellectual development and regressing the field to primitive epistemological assumptions. In stark contrast, Scenario B presents a trialogical and post-formal vision that elevates the learner to the position of a critical evaluator and active producer, fostering the collective creation of knowledge. Ultimately, the study contends that the future of the discipline hinges on the courage to position AI not as an undisputed authority, but as a dialogic partner that enriches the collective pursuit of meaning.

Abstract This paper investigates futuring practices in European space policy-making. European space policy is marked by diverse actors and institutions and an interplay of competing temporalities, where long-term ambitions intersect with short-term political pressures, budget constraints, and shifting geopolitical dynamics. Policymakers are often challenged to navigate slow, consensus-driven mechanisms while responding to the accelerating demands of global space competition. We argue that temporal control—how futures are timed, paced, and sequenced—is a crucial yet underexplored dimension of science, technology, and innovation policies. Bridging science and technology studies and futures studies, we develop further the notion of temporal ownership to examine how European actors engage in temporal experimentation to align with global developments and articulate distinctive policy trajectories. Drawing on document analysis, expert interviews, conference ethnographies, and foresight workshops, the study empirically and conceptually contributes to scholarship on public policy by showing how temporal politics shape strategic decision-making in technoscientific governance.

Purpose: This study aims to identify the evolution of the field of corporate foresight over the last decade and its association with the theme of intellectual capital to capture factors that aid organizations succeed in the long term. Originality/value: When it refers to foresight and resource-based management, the effect of dynamic capabilities on intangible assets has already been discussed, but there has been no direct mention of futures studies and intellectual capital. Method: A systematic literature review was performed to investigate works published on the Web of Science database between January 2015 and June 2024. Results: The relationship with intellectual capital was predominant in structural capital factors of product and process innovations, advanced technologies and management tools. Besides that, anticipatory studies about human and relational capital factors seemed to be relevant for decision-making in future. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that through corporate foresight analysis it was possible to identify the changes needed to improve key intellectual capital factors that can be responsible for differentiating products and services in the market in terms of innovation and competitive advantage.

Prevalence and timing of iron deficiency among youth with sickle cell disease receiving chronic transfusions

In critical time studies, an important critique of “long-term thinking”—a politics prioritizing societal, environmental, and planetary challenges outlasting the short-term cycles of democracies, industries, and even human generations—has emerged. According to Bastian, decontextualized visions of the long term may obscure important, albeit less remote times of change and conflict; and may hide ethnocentric time markers beneath the veneer of moral self-evidence associated with serious long-term challenges. However, futures are not a level playing field. The possibility of “chronowashing”—elite capture of dominant temporalities through discourses about the long-term future—raises dual challenges for time studies and the history of science. How d1id futures come to be subject to power imbalances in the production of knowledge? In this article, I will argue that the answer depends on how to regard futures as a form of knowledge. Drawing on a history of how futures studies affected climate science, I argue that long-term futures were not so much an object of knowledge as a dynamic objective of knowledge, pursued within a networked information system connecting industrial, governmental, academic, and military institutions. Because this knowledge infrastructure required transnational, cross-sectoral, interdisciplinary, and technological coordination, a “jet set” of well-connected and frequent-flying science-policy entrepreneurs gained outsize influence on knowledge production for long-term futures. While this history speaks to power imbalances that have shaped “long-term thinking,” the knowledge infrastructure for long-term futures has also been a platform for novel social and environmental problematizations. However, historical inquiry can provide more precision about when elites veered into elitism, embedding sociological blind spots into epistemic outputs.

In the face of accelerating environmental and socio-political changes, there is value in expanding the temporal scope of ethnobiology to more actively engage with the future. This perspective explores the potential of a forward-looking ethnobiology that incorporates methods from Futures Studies to co-envision and co-produce sustainable biocultural futures in partnership with Indigenous Peoples and local communities. We highlight different methods and tools that can be repurposed to create inclusive, transdisciplinary spaces for community-led imagination, experimentation, and learning. By embedding futures thinking into the fabric of ethnobiological practice, the discipline can further enrich its longstanding role in fostering biocultural resilience. We argue that the time has come not only to imagine the future of ethnobiology, but to actively co-create it through culturally grounded, future-oriented, and ethically engaged methodologies. This shift repositions ethnobiology as a central force in advancing just and sustainable pathways.

Abstract Environmental risks, driven by anthropogenic activities, pose critical challenges for ecosystems and human societies. Climate change, pollution, deforestation, and biodiversity loss are accelerating due to unsustainable industrial and agricultural practices, necessitating urgent scientific and policy interventions. In Futures Studies, scenario development is an essential tool in addressing these challenges, enabling policymakers to anticipate risks and develop adaptive strategies. The Delphi method, a structured, expert-based technique, plays a crucial role in scenario development by identifying emerging trends and critical uncertainties. However, a common limitation in scenario-based studies is the gap between scenario construction and actionable policy recommendations, as deriving concrete strategies remains a resource-intensive process. To bridge this gap, this study integrates generative pre-trained transformers into a spatial version of the Delphi method, namely the Real-Time Spatial Delphi, optimizing AI to assist experts in drafting policy recommendations based on scenario insights. Considering a statistical coefficient based on spatial and importance scores, this approach reduces expert workload while maintaining human oversight and refinement by automating the initial policy formulation. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study on climate adaptation strategies for Dublin 2050, demonstrating how AI-assisted policy generation can enhance decision-making in environmental planning.

Abstract As Europe faces unprecedented demographic shifts and technological advancement, the future of eye care delivery stands at a critical juncture. This paper develops a comprehensive conceptual framework for understanding how teleophthalmology will transform European healthcare delivery through 2040. Drawing on futures studies methodology and healthcare innovation theory, we propose a multi-level framework that captures the dynamic interplay between technological innovation, social systems, and healthcare delivery models. The framework examines transformation across macro (landscape), meso (regime), and micro (niche) levels while incorporating temporal dimensions that reflect the evolutionary nature of healthcare innovation. Through analysis of current trends and emerging developments, we present three detailed scenarios for the future of European teleophthalmology: fully integrated digital eye care, hybrid model with regional variations, and technology-enabled traditional care. These scenarios explore how different combinations of technological capability, social acceptance, and institutional readiness might shape the evolution of eye care delivery. Our analysis reveals critical challenges and opportunities in implementing teleophthalmology across diverse European healthcare systems, including issues of healthcare equity, data governance, professional adaptation, and cross-border care delivery. The paper contributes to both theoretical understanding of healthcare futures and practical implementation of digital health solutions while considering the unique characteristics of European healthcare systems. The framework and scenarios presented provide valuable guidance for policymakers, healthcare providers, and technology developers in shaping the future of eye care delivery across Europe.

This essay addresses conspiracism using an interdisciplinary futures studies approach. Conspiracy theories can be reframed, rather than dismissed, via Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) and narrative foresight. After the historical roots of conspiracy theory are traced, narratives that support conspiracies are discussed, and cognitive biases like the conjunction fallacy are examined. The effectiveness of CLA is demonstrated through case studies such as QAnon and The Protocols of the Elders of Zion. A survey of research on digital disinformation shows how futures literacy, as opposed to media literacy and critical thinking, can counter conspiracism and enable planning for inclusive, affirmative alternative futures.

ABSTRACT This paper examines time and temporality as central but often overlooked dimensions that shape the futures of work. While workplace transformation discussions often emphasise spatial aspects of working environments, our study reveals that temporal structures fundamentally determine how work is organised, experienced, and valued. In a two‐round Delphi study conducted in 2024, we used a novel Delphi approach with provocations and paradox probing. As a result, we gained understanding on how temporal (i.e., time‐related) issues function as critical elements in future work environments. Our findings indicate that novel temporal arrangements and understandings are associated with transformations in working environments. However, the possibility of novel temporal arrangements and their utilisation often follow existing power structures, which create inequities between different sectors, roles, and people. To conceptualise time as an active element rather than neutral background, we contextualise the analysis to literature on time in futures studies and related fields. In this way, our research contributes through the Delphi study to understanding how changing temporalities might affect whether workplace innovations succeed in fostering productivity, well‐being, and equity or whether they create novel problems and new forms of exclusion. The results of our Delphi study are particularly timely given how workplaces change in the context of the so‐called double twin transition of digital/green and virtual/physical transforming our societies. Where and when cannot be separated when it comes to the futures of work, given the double twin transition.

This paper introduces a learning innovation that merges science fiction with entrepreneurship education to encourage bold, futures-oriented thinking and entrepreneurial action today. Developed for master’s level students at a public research-oriented university, this learning innovation promotes the exploration of distant futures, leveraging established tools from futures studies within an entrepreneurial context. Through a structured five-step process, students shift their focus from cognitively proximate futures to those that radically diverge from the present, enabling them to conceive of innovative ventures. The learning innovation thus fosters performative futures thinking, engaging in speculative science fiction authoring, and utilizing backcasting to translate visionary futures into immediate entrepreneurial actions. Over three yearly iterations, the learning innovation has demonstrated its effectiveness in broadening students’ imaginative capabilities and improving their capacity to act upon fictional expectations. This paper reflects on the outcomes, student feedback, and potential applications of the learning innovation in various educational and corporate settings.

Tehran’s household waste composition scenarios using a futures studies approach

Futures studies of development Tehran's urban- region in the globalization process

This study applies Nida’s Functional Equivalence Theory to translating Chapter 1 of Translations of Security: A Framework for the Study of Unwanted Futures, a conceptually dense academic text. To bridge the English-Chinese typological gaps, a multi-tiered strategy was employed: lexical solutions ensured conceptual fidelity, syntactic adjustments enhanced naturalness, and textual techniques optimized cohesion and coherence. The research validates the theory’s efficacy for academic texts, establishes unified Chinese security-studies terminology, and demonstrates how theoretical adaptations localize Western critical scholarship.