Future Popularity Research Articles

Popularity Prediction Tool for ATLAS Distributed Data Management

This paper describes a popularity prediction tool for data-intensive data management systems, such as ATLAS distributed data management (DDM). It is fed by the DDM popularity system, which produces historical reports about ATLAS data usage, providing information about files, datasets, users and sites where data was accessed. The tool described in this contribution uses this historical information to make a prediction about the future popularity of data. It finds trends in the usage of data using a set of neural networks and a set of input parameters and predicts the number of accesses in the near term future. This information can then be used in a second step to improve the distribution of replicas at sites, taking into account the cost of creating new replicas (bandwidth and load on the storage system) compared to gain of having new ones (faster access of data for analysis). To evaluate the benefit of the redistribution a grid simulator is introduced that is able replay real workload on different data distributions. This article describes the popularity prediction method and the simulator that is used to evaluate the redistribution.

Predicting Successful Memes Using Network and Community Structure

We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes.

Virality Prediction and Community Structure in Social Networks

How does network structure affect diffusion? Recent studies suggest that the answer depends on the type of contagion. Complex contagions, unlike infectious diseases (simple contagions), are affected by social reinforcement and homophily. Hence, the spread within highly clustered communities is enhanced, while diffusion across communities is hampered. A common hypothesis is that memes and behaviors are complex contagions. We show that, while most memes indeed spread like complex contagions, a few viral memes spread across many communities, like diseases. We demonstrate that the future popularity of a meme can be predicted by quantifying its early spreading pattern in terms of community concentration. The more communities a meme permeates, the more viral it is. We present a practical method to translate data about community structure into predictive knowledge about what information will spread widely. This connection contributes to our understanding in computational social science, social media analytics, and marketing applications.

Predicting future popularity trend of events in microblogging platforms

AbstractThe fast information sharing on Twitter from millions of users all over the world leads to almost real‐time reporting of events. It is extremely important for business and administrative decision makers to learn events' popularity as quickly as possible, as it can buy extra precious time for them to make informed decisions. Therefore, we introduce the problem of predicting future popularity trend of events on microblogging platforms. Traditionally, trend prediction has been performed by using time series analysis of past popularity to forecast the future popularity changes. As we can encode the rich Twitter dynamics using a rich variety of features from microblogging data, we explore regression, classification and hybrid approaches, using a large set of popularity, social and event features, to predict event popularity. Experimental results on two real datasets of 18382 events extracted from ∼133 million tweets show the effectiveness of the extracted features and learning approaches. The predicted popularity trend of events can be directly used for a variety of applications including recommendation systems, ad keywords bidding price decisions, stock trading decisions, dynamic ticket pricing for sports events, etc.

Inbreeding and genetic diversity in dogs: Results from DNA analysis

This review assesses evidence from DNA analysis to determine whether there is sufficient genetic diversity within breeds to ensure that populations are sustainable in the absence of cross breeding and to determine whether genetic diversity is declining. On average, dog breeds currently retain approximately 87% of the available domestic canine genetic diversity. Requirements that breeding stock must be 'clear' for all genetic disorders may firstly place undue genetic pressure on animals tested as being 'clear' of known genetic disorders, secondly may contribute to loss of diversity and thirdly may result in the dissemination of new recessive disorders for which no genetic tests are available. Global exchange of genetic material may hasten the loss of alleles and this practice should be discussed in relation to the current effective population size of a breed and its expected future popularity. Genomic data do not always support the results from pedigree analysis and possible reasons for this are discussed.

Predictive File Replication on the Data Grids

Most replication methods either monitor the popularity of files or use complicated functions to calculate the overall cost of whether or not a replication decision or a deletion decision should be issued. However, once the replication decision is issued, the popularity of the files is changed and may have already impacted access latency and resource usage. This article proposes a decision-tree-based predictive file replication strategy that forecasts files’ future popularity based on their characteristics on the Grids. The proposed strategy has shown superb performance in terms of mean job time and effective network usage compared with the other two replication strategies, LRU and Economic under OptorSim simulation environment.

How you named your child: understanding the relationship between individual decision making and collective outcomes.

We examine the interdependence between individual and group behavior surrounding a somewhat arbitrary, real-world decision: selecting a name for one's child. Using a historical database of the names given to children over the last century in the United States, we find that naming choices are influenced by both the frequency of a name in the general population, and by its ''momentum'' in the recent past in the sense that names which are growing in popularity are preferentially chosen. This bias toward rising names is a recent phenomena: In the early part of the 20th century, increasing popularity of a name from one time period to the next correlated with a decrease in future popularity. However, more recently this trend has reversed. We evaluate a number of formal models that detail how individual decision-making strategies, played out in a large population of interacting agents, can explain these empirical observations. We argue that cognitive capacities for change detection, the encoding of frequency in memory, and biases toward novel or incongruous stimuli may interact with the behavior of other decision makers to determine the distribution and dynamics of cultural tokens such as names.

Cash Transfers Contributing to Social Protection: A Review of Evaluation Findings

The positive effects of conditional cash transfer programmes (CCTs) in Latin America have led to the recommendation that CCTs should be promoted. This may be premature since there is not much knowledge about the critical factors that have led to the positive results. Areas suffering from humanitarian crises, insufficient food supply and poor connection to the nearby markets should not be considered for cash transfer programmes. Several policy implications are identified: (1) The implications of conditionality should be carefully assessed before embarking on these types of programmes as they tend to exclude the most vulnerable groups. (2) One will usually get more poverty reduction for the budget by using broad targeting. (3) Gender equality should be a part of the overall design. (4) Rigorous impact evaluations of universal cash transfer programmes may be important for their future popularity.

Vasectomy: follow up of 831 cases.

A follow-up study of 831 patients who underwent vasectomy by 2 general practitioners in Brisbane April 1970-February 1972 is reported. At the end of 1972 a questionnaire and a covering letter were sent to each of 960 men by the doctors who performed the operations. 831 (86.6%) replied. Ages of the men at time of operation ranged from under 25 to over 50. The typical male responding was 30-40 years old had been married 10-14 years and had fathered 2-4 children. Only 27 had been married less than 5 years. The men were predominantly Protestant. Roman Catholics were less and those professing no religion more than the proportion in the community. Employment breakdown was: professional 61; subprofessional 257; skilled 208; semiskilled 218; and unskilled 72. There were more semiskilled men but fewer subprofessional men than would be expected from the census occupational breakdown (p less than .01). Source of information regarding fasectomy were: Queensland Humanist Society 304 mentions; friends or relatives 276; newspaper 270; doctor 188; and other media and sources accounting for the remainder. Reasons for vasectomy were birth control 514; medical reasons of wife 315; financial 184; and ethical 31. 54.2% of those responding approved of female sterilization 45.7% disapproved. Vasectomy was considered safer cheaper and did not require hospitalization. 96.8% reported no ill effects of the operation on their sexual lives. Improvement was claimed by 66.2% usually the ability to enjoy sexual relations without fear of an unwanted pregnancy. Dissatisfaction with other previously used contraceptive measures was an important factor. The wifes side effects from oral contraceptives was frequently noted. Of the reasons given for deterioration of sex life after operation decreased sexual desire was most frequent. Of the 20 who reported such deterioration 14 said they would have the operation again. Of the 831 10 (1.2%) regretted the vasectomy. Pain during and after operation difficulties with sexual adjustment and 1 case of concern caused by permanence of result was given as reasons. Some caution in interpreting results is necessary due to the short follow-up period (9-22 months) and the highly emotional content of the replies. The acceptance of vasectomy by all socioeconomic levels of the community is an indication of its future popularity.

The Prevalence of Early Embryonic Mortality in the Broad Breasted Bronze Turkeys ,

THE reproductivity ratio3 of the Broad Breasted Bronze turkeys is relatively low. Marsden and Olsen (1950) place it at 55 percent. The economic loss which results from such a low reproductivity ratio not only seriously affects the involved segments of the poultry industry, but also may eventually become a deterrent to the continued future popularity of this otherwise valuable breed of turkey. Infertility is often considered to be the most important single factor responsible for the low reproductivity ratio of the B. B. Bronze turkeys. The work of Blyth (1945) and Munro and Kosin (1945) with chickens and of Laing (1949) with cattle, indicates that the term “infertility” often should be defined more closely, in order to differentiate between (1) the apparent infertility and (2) the true biological infertility. The former may frequently be merely reflecting the high level of early embryonic lethality. An analogous condition has been reported for .

The Care and Feeding of Children: A Catechism for the Use of Mothers and Children's Nurses

In this revision of a book that has been found useful to a large number of mothers for a period of many years, few changes have been made. New material has been added, but the book retains its original form. The information given is clearly and concisely presented and will serve to answer for the mother many questions that concern her in the care of the well child. The author has been careful not to include material that might alarm the mother, but in all instances the advice given is authentic. The volume deserves a future popularity as great as it has enjoyed in the past.