Frost Events Research Articles

Agro-climatic profiles of summer mountain pastures in the French Alps: towards a monitoring tool to contribute to climate risk assessment

Summer mountain pastures (also called alpages) are a central element for many agro-pastoral livestock systems in the alpine region, by providing the feedstock for herds during the summer transhumance. However, vegetation phenology and productivity in mountain pastures are increasingly affected by climate hazards exacerbated by climate change, such as early snow removal, late frost events, or droughts. Difficulties can then arise to match animal demand with forage resource on alpages and, in the long term, threaten the sustainable management of these highly multifunctional socio-ecological systems. To help agro-pastoral actors adapt, an essential step is to quantify the risk of impacts on the forage resource, due to an increased occurrence or intensity of climate hazards.Exposure to climate hazards on alpages is defined locally by topographic aspects in combination with the broader influence of the regional climate. Our work therefore aimed at providing a tailored assessment of potential climate risk for the forage resource at the individual scale of each alpage in the French Alps. To this end, we developed agro-climatic indicators based on atmospheric and snow cover data accounting for geographic and topographic conditions, and applied them to a database providing unique spatially explicit information at the alpage level.For the first time, we introduce a description of agro-climatic conditions and provide a classification of agro-climatic profiles of alpages in the French Alps, ranging from low to high potential risk for the forage resource, mainly following a North-South gradient combined with altitude. We also bring insights on the evolutions of the climate risk with climate change and discuss management implications for agro-pastoral livestock systems using alpages. We finally present a web-based visualization tool that aim at communicating agro-climatic profiles and their evolution to practitioners and at assisting decision makers in understanding climate-related risks on the alpages of the French Alps.

A Targeted Metabolomics Approach to Study Secondary Metabolites and Antioxidant Activity in 'Kinnow Mandarin' during Advanced Fruit Maturity.

In this study, we investigated the impact of harvest maturity stages and contrasting growing climates on secondary metabolites in Kinnow mandarin. Fruit samples were harvested at six harvest maturity stages (M1–M6) from two distinct growing locations falling under subtropical–arid (STA) and subtropical–humid (STH) climates. A high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS/MS) technique was employed to identify and quantify secondary metabolites in the fruit juice. A total of 31 polyphenolics and 4 limonoids, with significant differences (p < 0.05) in their concentration, were determined. With advancing maturity, phenolic acids and antioxidant activity were found to increase, whereas flavonoids and limonoids decreased in concentration. There was a transient increase in the concentration of some polyphenolics such as hesperidin, naringin, narirutin, naringenin, neoeriocitrin, rutin, nobiletin and tangeretin, and limonoid aglycones such as limonin and nomilin at mid-maturity stage (M3) which coincided with prevailing low temperature and frost events at growing locations. A higher concentration of limonin and polyphenolics was observed for fruit grown under STH climates in comparison to those grown under STA climates. The data indicate that fruit metabolism during advanced stages of maturation under distinct climatic conditions is fundamental to the flavor, nutrition and processing quality of Kinnow mandarin. This information can help in understanding the optimum maturity stage and preferable climate to source fruits with maximum functional compounds, less bitterness and high consumer acceptability.

Examining the potential of Austrocedrus chilensis tree rings as indicators of past late-spring frost events in central Chile

Austrocedrus chilensis is a South American conifer broadly distributed across the subtropical and extratropical Andes that is widely utilized in tree-ring studies. This species has clear annual growth rings that are sensitive to the moisture supply and has been extensively used to reconstruct the past hydroclimate during the last millennium. Despite a great number of dendrochronological studies based on tree-ring width, little is known about the potential of the species to record intra-annual anomalies and particularly frost rings. In this study, the main traits of A. chilensis frost rings were studied and the ability of this endemic Cupressaceae to record spring frosts at five sites across a latitudinal gradient between the Mediterranean and Northern Patagonian Andes was evaluated. The average ages of trees in the study sites varied from 168 to 343 years, with minimum and maximum ages of 33 and 919 years. The results indicated that 85% of the frost rings occurred at the beginning of the earlywood and 15% showed a mid intra-ring position. Regarding the portion of the ring circumference affected by frost damage in cross sections, 59% of the injuries partially affected the entire ring, 30% affected the complete ring circumference, and 11% resulted in a ring fracture. Freezing temperatures that generated frost rings in A. chilensis from the upper treeline coincided with events below 0 °C recorded in the agricultural Central Valley of Chile. We estimated the potential time window of the formation of A. chilensis frost rings over a two and a half month period from the end of September to mid-November (early spring). Our results indicated that tree age was a determinant factor affecting the ability of trees to record frost rings. The maximum frequency of frost rings occurred at 12 years and the maximum age at which 95% of the total frost injuries occurred within our network was about 120 years. Both the exceptional longevity and the excellent state of preservation of relict wood demonstrates that A. chilensis frost rings provide a reliable proxy for monitoring and reconstructing late-spring frost events in central Chile.

Machine learning-based detection of freezing events using infrared thermography

Frost can cause irreversible damage to plant tissue and can significantly reduce yields and quality. A thorough understanding of the freezing dynamics is crucial to developing strategies for frost protection and the prevention of freezing damage. This study investigated artificial intelligence machine learning (ML) models to capture the thermodynamic patterns of freezing based on infrared thermography (IRT) imagery, which would help to automate the image analysis process in real-time or post frost events. A small-scale dataset of IRT images was collected to capture the freezing process from sample droplets containing ice-nucleating bacterium. We performed several ML experiments on the data to detect the transitions in temperatures from the images. We evaluated five popular ML models, namely support vector machines, random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), multi-layer perceptron, and convolutional neural networks. We analysed the dataset to classify adjacent temperature transitions. The results show that ML models can consistently capture the thermodynamics of frost events, i.e., ice-nucleation and freezing points on typical freezing curves. Amongst the ML models, RF and XGBoost achieved the best results, both with an average accuracy of 87–88% in classifying the temperatures. With 0.25 °C temperature transitions, RF model identified the ice nucleation and freezing points at around −2.25 °C to −2.75 °C and −4.25 °C to −4.75 °C, respectively. RF and XGBoost took about 7.3 ms and 5.5 ms time per image respectively, which indicates that these models can be used in real-time applications. Our study shows that ML models using IRT imagery can be used as an automatic real-time tool to accurately detect the critical temperatures for frost formation.

Variability in frost occurrence under climate change and consequent risk of damage to trees of western Quebec, Canada

Climate change affects timings, frequency, and intensity of frost events in northern ecosystems. However, our understanding of the impacts that frost will have on growth and survival of plants is still limited. When projecting the occurrence of frost, the internal variability and the different underlying physical formulations are two major sources of uncertainty of climate models. We use 50 climate simulations produced by a single-initial large climate ensemble and five climate simulations produced by different pairs of global and regional climate models based on the concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) over a latitudinal transect covering the temperate and boreal ecosystems of western Quebec, Canada, during 1955–2099 to provide a first-order estimate of the relative importance of these two sources of uncertainty on the occurrence of frost, i.e. when air temperature is < 0 °C, and their potential damage to trees. The variation in the date of the last spring frost was larger by 21 days (from 46 to 25 days) for the 50 climate simulations compared to the 5 different pairs of climate models. When considering these two sources of uncertainty in an eco-physiological model simulating the timings of budbreak for trees of northern environment, results show that 20% of climate simulations expect that trees will be exposed to frost even in 2090. Thus, frost damage to trees remains likely under global warming.

Automatic mapping of Italian forest disturbances between 1985 and 2019 using Landsat imagery and Google Earth Engine

Forests play a key role in the carbon cycle and the fight against climate change. Long-term monitoring of forest dynamics represents a key element for understanding forests transformations due to forest harvestings and disturbances including fires, wind storms, frost or drought events, and pathogen attacks. This work aims at mapping and evaluating the forest disturbances that have occurred in Italy since 1985, using Landsat satellite imagery and apposite algorithms. We predicted about 1.8 million forest disturbances occurring during the observation period. Disturbances ranged between 27.923 ha in 2014 and 261.733 ha in 1985. Most of the forest disturbances have been identified in Sicilia and Calabria. Commission errors fluctuated between 29% in 2012 and 65% in 2001 while omission errors were between 8% in 2014 and 88% in 2003. The results that we present in this work can increase our understanding of Italian forests, and serve as basis for future research, while the methodology we applied can support the production of official statistics on forest disturbances.

Estimating Effects of Radiation Frost on Wheat Using a Field-Based Frost Control Treatment to Stop Freezing Damage.

Crop phenotyping experiments have long struggled to have a reliable control treatment that excludes frost and associated freezing damage to plants. Previous attempts used a barrier, such as a removable shelter or cloth to exclude frost. However, these methods were labour intensive and varied in their effectiveness. An automated diesel heater was used to protect field plots of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) from frost damage. In 2018 and 2019 there were 22 and 33 radiation frost events from July to October at the field site. The heater maintained canopy air temperature above freezing (>0 °C) for the duration of the frost (~6–8 h). Heated plots had 2–3 °C warmer minimum canopy air temperatures. Cold and chilling damage was still present in heated plots and represented 20–30% floret sterility; freezing damage in non-heated plots accounted for an additional 10–30% floret sterility. Grain mapping revealed: grain set in the apical spikelets is most affected by frost damage; proximal florets (G1 and G2) contribute the most to grain yield, but distal (G3 and G4) are important contributors to grain yield when sterility in proximal florets occurs. These results demonstrate that a plot heater is a useful tool to study frost-induced freezing damage in cereal crops, by way of preventing freezing damage in heated field plots for direct comparison to naturally frosted plots. This approach could be used to develop improved damage functions for crop simulation models through a dose and timing-response experiment for natural frost incidence on cereal crops in field plots.

Coexistence of two newt species in a transition zone of range overlap

Abstract Theory suggests that spatial segregation of similar, co-occurring species may be driven by alternative innate life history and dispersal strategies, and that it operates through catastrophic events. An inventory of the evolutionary closely related small-bodied newts Lissotriton helveticus and L. vulgaris in the northwest of France demonstrated the species’ spatial partitioning, with L. vulgaris dominating in two pond-rich and historically disturbed coastal areas and L. helveticus prevailing inland where ponds are sparser. Population numbers were followed over several decades (1975–2021) in a pond within the narrow (ca. 2000 m wide) species transition zone. Early in the temporal survey (1986) a massive die-off was observed of two-third of the L. helveticus breeding population from a late frost event. Yet, the contribution of L. helveticus to the newt assemblage was more or less stable around 60%, even though the total population size fluctuated by an order of magnitude. Lissotriton vulgaris and a third species, Ichthyosaura alpestris, made up ca. 30% and 10% of the total till 1993, after which date their relative contributions reversed. These data suggest that a state shift may have occurred among the latter two species and that the assumed two-species dynamics of Lissotriton underlying the study has been an oversimplification. The local decline of L. vulgaris is paralleled by the loss of well-vegetated ponds from the wider agricultural terrain that affects this species more than L. helveticus and I. alpestris.

Differential thermal analysis reveals the sensitivity of sweet cherry flower organs to low temperatures.

The frequency and severity of spring frosts increase during the budburst in many regions of the world as global warming increases. Variability in the freezing resistance of sweet cherry flower organs during the active growing period has been rarely documented, especially in regard to the sepal, pedicel, receptacle, petal, stamen, and pistil organs of flower at the deacclimation stage. The freezing resistance of flower organs of six sweet cherry cultivars was investigated at regular intervals from the first white stage through the full bloom stage using differential thermal analysis (DTA) for 2019-2020. For most of the cultivars, petal and stamen organs of flower exhibited higher freezing resistance than other flower organs. There were significant differences in frost tolerance among cultivars, and 'Van' and 'Wild Genotype' had a lower level of low temperature exotherms or critical temperatures (LT50 values) in both stages, whereas 'Merton Late' was more sensitive to frost than other cultivars. Additionally, an increase in LT50 values in all cultivars was observed with the progression of the budburst. The results in the present study can increase the certainty of decision-making regarding the timing and methods to increase the air temperature in orchards during spring frost events to prevent frost damage. Larger data sets are required to further validate our results, and future efforts should thus be focused on determining the critical temperatures of flower organs using different measurement techniques.

Impact of Early Season Temperatures in a Climate-Changed Atmosphere for Michigan: A Cool-Climate Viticultural Region

This study assesses the impacts of observed (2001–2012) and projected climate change on early season heat accumulation for grape production (viticulture) in a cool-climate region of the world (Michigan, USA). Observational data were generated from a weather station located in the center of one of the most important appellations located in the SW part of the state. Climate change projections retrieved from a high spatiotemporal weather model using atmospheric conditions simulated for the end of the 21st Century. All the temperature variables considered demonstrated significant warming trends especially during the months of March, April and May. Temperature differences, increases in heat accumulation, and changes to potential frost events would necessitate new approaches to vineyard management. In fact, it is likely that vine budburst will occur earlier and early season frost develop as a new challenge. However, our study results are comparable with other viticulture regions of the world, with a warming trend of at least 3 to 5 °C in the months leading up to the growing season by the end of the 21st Century. Therefore, effective climate change adaptations will be important to the grape and wine industry in this region. Management strategies are needed to minimize climate risks while taking advantage of new opportunities related to improved climatic conditions for growing more late-ripening European Vitis vinifera grape varieties, relevant for producing higher quality wines.

Impact of Frost on the Morphology and Chemical Composition of cv. Santulhana Olives

Frost events and extreme weather phenomena greatly affect several characteristics of the olive fruit. This study evaluated the impact of frost on the morphology, composition (moisture, fat, fatty acids, tocopherols, and total phenolic contents), and antioxidant activity of olives of cv. Santulhana. A total of 14 trees from the same geographical region (Santulhão, northeast of Portugal) were chosen, including trees subjected or not subjected to frost conditions (n = 7 each). The results showed that frost led to morphological changes in olive fruits, particularly in terms of weight and diameter, which were imposed by a huge decrease in the moisture content (−20%). Fat relative content increased as a consequence of the water loss (+29% in fresh pulp weight), with a slight reduction of the relative abundance of saturated fatty acids (−4%) and tocopherol contents in the fat (−17%). However, the total phenolic contents and antioxidant activity were severely affected (−70% and −42%, respectively), with potential consequences for the olive oil stability and sensorial attributes. Principal component analysis showed that both morphological and chemical parameters could be used as biomarkers to identify olives subjected or not subjected to frost. The overall negative impact of frost on the minor antioxidant contents of cv. Santulhana olives may anticipate a quality loss of olive oils extracted from olives affected by frost.

Spatio-temporal assessment of frost risks during the flowering of pear trees in Belgium for 1971–2068

Over the last decades, fruit trees in Europe have tended to flower earlier due to warmer winters. The impact of destructive spring frosts remains considerable as exemplified by damage during pome fruit flowering in Belgium between 2017 and 2021. While several regional studies on the impact and evolution of this phenomenon exist, pear fruit (Pyrus communis) has received little attention. We focused on the commercially important pear cultivar ‘Conference’ in Belgium using data from 1971 to 2018, and climate projections to 2068. A calibrated phenological model was applied to selected members of the CMIP5 EUROCORDEX regional climate model ensemble for emission scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 to determine the timing of the flowering period and the coinciding frost events (<-2 °C). A recursive and multivariate quantile mapping correction on monthly series of minimum and maximum temperature provided the most consistent reduction of negative temperature bias in the climate time series as compared to the observations. Flowering in the current pear production area in Belgium started on average 7.5 (10.8) days earlier under scenario RCP 4.5 (8.5), and the last frost occurred on average 12.8 (17.9) days earlier in 2019–2068 compared to 1971–2018. Sen's slope coefficient indicated an overall advancement of 1.25 (1.55) days per decade for flowering; 2.06 (2.23) days per decade for the last frost and around 25% fewer frosts during a projected future flowering period. Pear orchards in northern lowlands were less exposed to frosts than orchards in regions with elevations above 300 m. While frosts remain a potential threat in a projected future, climate change did not induce more frequent frosts and production relocation is therefore not recommended.

Cold Acclimation in Brachypodium Is Accompanied by Changes in Above-Ground Bacterial and Fungal Communities.

Shifts in microbiota undoubtedly support host plants faced with abiotic stress, including low temperatures. Cold-resistant perennials prepare for freeze stress during a period of cold acclimation that can be mimicked by transfer from growing conditions to a reduced photoperiod and a temperature of 4 °C for 2–6 days. After cold acclimation, the model cereal, Brachypodium distachyon, was characterized using metagenomics supplemented with amplicon sequencing (16S ribosomal RNA gene fragments and an internal transcribed spacer region). The bacterial and fungal rhizosphere remained largely unchanged from that of non-acclimated plants. However, leaf samples representing bacterial and fungal communities of the endo- and phyllospheres significantly changed. For example, a plant-beneficial bacterium, Streptomyces sp. M2, increased more than 200-fold in relative abundance in cold-acclimated leaves, and this increase correlated with a striking decrease in the abundance of Pseudomonas syringae (from 8% to zero). This change is of consequence to the host, since P. syringae is a ubiquitous ice-nucleating phytopathogen responsible for devastating frost events in crops. We posit that a responsive above-ground bacterial and fungal community interacts with Brachypodium’s low temperature and anti-pathogen signalling networks to help ensure survival in subsequent freeze events, underscoring the importance of inter-kingdom partnerships in the response to cold stress.

Crop Cycle Length Determines Optimal Transplanting Date for Seedlings from Hybrid True Potato Seeds

AbstractThe technology of hybrid breeding in diploid potatoes creates opportunities to design novel and improved cultivation systems based on hybrid true potato seeds. A promising cultivation pathway to produce seed or ware tubers is by transplanting greenhouse-raised seedlings into the field. This study explored the effects of transplanting date and seedling age on tuber yield, using greenhouse-raised seedlings. Field trials with experimental hybrid genotypes were conducted in three consecutive years. In 2017 and 2018, 4- and 6-week-old seedlings were transplanted at four dates: March, April, May and June. In 2019, transplanting dates included April, May and June and seedling age was 5 weeks. In 2018, the March planting experienced severe frost during the initial field period resulting in crop failure. In 2017 and 2019, plants could withstand shorter and less severe frost events. Seedling age did not significantly affect tuber parameters. Transplanting in June resulted in lower marketable yield (&gt; 28 mm) compared with earlier transplanting dates when crops were harvested in September. At full crop senescence, no differences in marketable yield were observed. The optimal transplanting window, taking into account weather-related risks, is approximately between early April and end May. For some genotypes, crop cycle length was observed to be a more important yield-determining factor than transplanting date.

Mortality of Eucalyptus pilularis progenies and provenances after frost

We aimed to quantify frost tolerance and damage on Eucalyptus pilularis provenances and progenies in Curitibanos, Santa Catarina State, Brazil. Mortality and severity of damage were assessed before frost at 7 months old and at 14 and 19 months old after frost events. Frost resulted in plant mortalityof 55.7%, with no difference among progenies and provenances. The tolerance of 5.3% may have occurred due to specific local conditions (escape). We concluded that the species does not have tolerance to frost in subtropical environment, with daily thermal range from - 5 °C to 28 °C.

Spatial dynamics and consistency of agroclimatic trends in Chile during 1985-2015 to the Köppen- Geiger climate classification

The Köppen-Geiger classification is one of the most common climate classification systems in the world. It allows classifying ecosystem distribution based on temperature and precipitation, two critical factors in climate, and vegetation cover’s sensitivity. We analyzed the dynamics and spatial consistency of agroclimatic variables in each type of Köppen- Geiger climate present in Chile, visualizing the variables’ behavior throughout the territory. Thus, we computed the trends of different climate and agroclimatic variables in each meteorological station, mapping their slope and statistical significance, and comparing their sense among all those that belong to the same climate zone. Our global trends analysis showed a thermal amplitude decrease in northern and central areas in about 12.03% and 20.3%, respectively, and an increase in south and southern areas in about 13.7% and 26.3%. A generalized increase in frost events (2.90%-16.02%) took place mainly in the country’s northern part. Results showed higher concordance percentages in stations belonging to the Köppen-Geiger type B (dry climate) and C (temperate climate). Thus, an increase in the maximum temperature occurred from north-central to south zones, a decrease in minimum temperature from north to central zone, and an increase in highlands (700-4000 m a.s.l.), central, south, and southern zone of the country. Also, a precipitation decreases and thermal amplitude increased roughly from the Coquimbo Region to the country’s central and southern zone. Variations in the agroclimatic indices’ behavior can affect yield and production of crops; thus, agroclimatic information presented here can support the zoning and selection of the cropping system.

Growth Recovery and Phenological Responses of Juvenile Beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) Exposed to Spring Warming and Late Spring Frost

Global change increases the risk of extreme climatic events. The impact of extreme temperature may depend on the tree species and also on the provenance. Ten provenances of Fagus sylvatica L. were grown in a common garden environment in Belgium and subjected to different temperature treatments. Half of the one year old seedlings were submitted to a high thermal stress in the spring of the first year, and all plants were exposed to a late spring frost in the second year. The high-temperature treated plants displayed reduced growth in the first year, which was fully compensated (recovery with exact compensation) in the second year for radial growth and in the third year for height growth. Frost in the spring of the second year damaged part of the saplings and reduced their growth. The frost damaged plants regained the pre-stress growth rate one year later (recovery without compensation). The high temperature treatment in the first year and the frost damage in the second year clearly influenced the phenological responses in the year of the event and in the succeeding year. Little population differentiation was observed among the provenances for growth and for phenological responses. Yet, a southern provenance, a non-autochthonous provenance (original German provenance that was planted in Belgium about a century ago) and a more continental provenance flushed earlier than the local Atlantic provenances in the year of the frost event, resulting in more frost damage. Some caution should therefore be taken when translocating provenances as an anticipation of the predicted climate warming.

Ecological memory and regional context influence performance of adaptation plantings in northeastern US temperate forests

Abstract Species distribution models predict shifts in forest habitat in response to warming temperatures associated with climate change, yet tree migration rates lag climate change, leading to misalignment of current species assemblages with future climate conditions. Forest adaptation strategies have been proposed to deliberately adjust species composition by planting climate‐suitable species. Practical evaluations of adaptation plantings are limited, especially in the context of ecological memory or extreme climate events. In this study, we examined the 3‐year survival and growth response of future climate‐adapted seedling transplants within operational‐scale silvicultural trials across temperate forests in the northeastern US. Nine species were selected for evaluation based on projected future importance under climate change and potential functional redundancy with species currently found in these ecosystems. We investigated how adaptation planting type (‘population enrichment’ vs. ‘assisted range expansion’) and local site conditions reinforce interference interactions with existing vegetation at filtering adaptation strategies focused on transitioning forest composition. Our results show the performance of seedling transplants is based on species (e.g. functional attributes and size), the strength of local competition (e.g. ecological memory) and adaptation planting type, a proxy for source distance. These findings were consistent across regional forests but modified by site‐specific conditions such as browse pressure and extreme climate events, namely drought and spring frost events. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight that managing forests for shifts in future composition represents a promising adaptation strategy for incorporating new species and functional traits into contemporary forests. Yet, important barriers remain for the establishment of future climate‐adapted forests that will most likely require management intervention. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings demonstrates the potential for adaptation plantings to serve as strategic source nodes for the establishment of future climate‐adapted species across functionally connected landscapes.

Effect of frost on plants, leaves, and forecast of frost events using convolutional neural networks

Climate change brings many changes in a physical environment like plants and leaves. The flowers and plants get affected by natural climate and local weather extremes. However, the projected increase in the frost event causes sensitivity in plant reproduction and plant structure vegetation. The timing of growing and reproduction might be an essential tactic by which plant life can avoid frost. Flowers are more sensitive to hoarfrost than leaves but more sensitive to frost in most cases. In most cases, frost affects the size of the plant, its growth, and the production of seeds. In this article, we examined that how frost affects plants and flowers? How it affects the roots and prevents the growth of plants, vegetables, and fruits? Furthermore, we predicted how the frost will grow and how we should take early precautions to protect our crops? We presented the convolutional neural network model framework and used the conv1d algorithm to evaluate one-dimensional data for frost event prediction. Then, as part of our model contribution, we preprocessed the data set. The results were comparable to four weather stations in the United States. The results showed that our convolutional neural network model configuration is reliable.

Process-based indicators for timely identification of apricot frost disaster on the warm temperate zone, China

Frequent occurrences of late spring frost disaster create severe agricultural/forest damage, even given the background of global warming. In the warm temperate zone of China, which is the largest planting area for fresh apricot, late spring frost disaster has become one of the major meteorological hazards during flowering. To prevent cold weather–induced apricot frost disaster and reduce potential losses in related fruit economic value, it is vital to establish a meteorological indicator for timely and accurate identification of cold weather process–based apricot frost disaster, to provide support for timely apricot frost monitoring and warning in late spring. In this study, daily minimax temperature ( $${T}_{\mathrm{min}}$$ ) and apricot frost disaster data during flowering were combined to establish meteorological identification indicators of apricot frost based on cold weather processes. A process-based apricot frost model $$f(D,{T}_{\mathrm{cum}})$$ was firstly constructed, and characteristics of $${T}_{\mathrm{cum}}$$ (accumulated harmful temperature) were explored under different D (duration days) based on the representation of historical apricot frost processes. Thresholds for the $${T}_{\mathrm{cum}}$$ for apricot frost in 1, 2, 3, 4, and more than 5 days of apricot frost process were determined as − 1.5, − 2.9, − 4.4, − 5.8, and − 7.3 °C, respectively. Validation results by reserved independent disaster samples were generally consistent with the historical records of apricot frost disasters, with 89.00% accuracy for indicator-based identification results. Typical process tracking of the proposed identification indicator to an apricot frost event that occurred in North Hebei during April 3–9, 2018, revealed that the indicator-based identification result basically coincides with the historical disaster record and can reflect more detailed information about the apricot frost process.