Relative Frequency Of Occurrence Research Articles

Differential diagnoses of elevated lesions of the upper lip: An overview.

This paper comes with a purpose to help the clinician as how to arrive at a logical differential diagnosis when an upper lip mass is encountered in day-to-day practice. The labial mucosa is commonly traumatized. One must be aware of the type of structures contained in the mucosa of the area of a lesion as well as the patients habits since they may relate to a lesion presented for diagnosis. It also helps them to procure a sound knowledge of the lesions by describing the lesions according to their clinical appearance and to aid the clinician in arriving at a differential diagnosis by considering that certain lesions have a predilection for the upper lip. All clinically similar appearing lesions are discussed according to their relative frequency of occurrence. This paper covers only a minority of plethora of elevated lesions that may appear on the upper lip since almost any soft tissue lesion or neoplasm (benign and malignant) may occur here.

Usable Space Versus Food Quantity in Bobwhite Habitat Management

We studied the response of northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) foods (plants and invertebrates), usable space, and populations following thinning and burning on the 60,000-ha pine (Pinus spp.)-grassland restoration area in the Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas, to examine 2 hypotheses commonly used to manage bobwhite habitat: 1) usable space (suitable permanent cover) and 2) food quantity (an element of habitat quality). We estimated invertebrate food abundance using sweep nets and abundance of food-producing plants using herbaceous and woody stem counts. The disk of vulnerability was used to index usable space. We used whistling-male counts to index population response. Relative abundance, mass, and frequency of occurrence of invertebrate foods and richness, density, and frequency of occurrence of bobwhite food-producing plants increased following thinning and fire. Relative abundance of whistling males was greatest in thinned stands 3 growing seasons post-burn and in thinned but unburned stands. We found food supply was related to usable space following treatment. However, food abundance alone did not explain bobwhite population response, whereas, usable space was predictive for bobwhite response. By comparing treated stands with similar usable space but different food quantity, we observed no differences in bobwhite abundance. Neural models suggested bobwhite population response was less sensitive to changes in food supply relative to changes in usable space. We recommend that managers should seek first to provide usable space (suitable permanent cover in low basal area stands), recognizing that adequate food supply will likely be a side effect of management to this end.

Origin of Fast Ion Conduction in Li10GeP2S12, a Superionic Conductor

The discovery of additional sites has revealed important insights into the possibility of cross-channel ionic diffusion in Li10GeP2S12 (LGPS). Here, we present an ab initio study of a Li diffusion mechanism in LGPS. The presence of fractional occupancy for Li sites leads to different c channel population of Li and different local environment for Li hop both along the c-directional channels and in the ab plane. We perform a rigorous computation of the energy barriers with different population of Li and different environment of Li surrounding the c channels. It is found that the diffusion energy barrier in LGPS depends significantly on channel population, local environment, and the type of hop which leads to a range of relative diffusivity along different directions. A novel mechanism of correlated diffusion between the c channel and the ab plane is found with significantly low energy barrier. The relative frequency of occurrence of the novel hop mechanism critically controls the degree of anisotropy in LGP...

Essays on Risk and Uncertainty: Comparing J. M. Keynes and the Von Mises Brothers, Richard and Ludwig, on Probability and Decision Theory

Richard von Mises set forth a Limiting Frequency approach to probability for use primarily in physics and some areas of biology, chemistry and engineering. Emphasis was placed on the existence of series or sequences of events that resulted from a known generating mechanism. The series consisted of repeated, homogeneous events that were identical to each other, except for their particular place selection in an infinite series. This conception of probability is extremely limited and can play only a very limited role in liberal arts, social science, behavioral science, and especially in economics, business, and finance.Ludwig von Mises conception was that there were two different concepts of probability. First, there was a class concept of probability that was basically a version of a limiting frequency interpretation of probability. He had a second conception that he called case probability. Case probability was supposed to deal with unique events. It essentially is a subjective degree of belief approach that allows one to calculate no more than an ordinal relationship. Ludwig Von Mises is thus not a Bayesian Subjectivist. His dual approach to probability is reminiscent of Rudolf Carnap, although it is greatly underdeveloped technically when compared to Carnap.J. M. Keynes’s conception of probability is a logical theory of probability built on G. Boole’s earlier logical theory of probability. Keynes’s theory deals with the degree of rational belief one should believe and act on. It is not “a” or “the” degree of belief used by Subjectivists. It was a relative concept, which means that all probabilities are conditional probabilities. There is an objective probability relation that holds between a given body of evidence, the premises, E, and a conclusion or hypothesis, H. Thus, P (H/E) =α. The objective probability relation measures the degree of similarity (dissimilarity) that exists between the evidence, E (premises), and the conclusion or Hypothesis, H.There are many severe and numerous errors in Richard Von Mises book, Probability, Statistics and Truth, regarding Keynes’s logical theory of probability that will be identified and corrected in this paper. Neither of the Von Mises brothers understood Keynes’s interval valued approach to probability or had any clear cut understanding of the concept of weight or decision weights like Keynes’s conventional coefficient in chapter 26 of the A Treatise on Probability, although such an approach appears out of nowhere in Probability, Statistics and Truth in Lecture 4.Ludwig von Mises’s conception of case probability has no developed concept of the weight of the evidence underlying it. Its identification of probability as being ordinal probability would be too weak from Keynes’s point of view to help an entrepreneur in making decisions related to his revenues and costs and the question of whether he should invest in fixed capital now or wait to do so at some time in the future (liquidity preference and user cost of capital issues).

Diet of Hyphessobrycon auca (Pisces, characidae) in Iberá Wetland (Northeastern, Argentina)

<p><em>Hyphessobry</em><em>c</em><em>on auca </em>Almirón, Casciotta, Bechara & Ruiz Díaz, 2004, inhabit small lakes located at the northwest of Iberá wetland in Argentina. This research describes sorne aspects of its feeding. Samples were collected from its type locality from 2007 to 2009. Analysis of 70 digestive tracts of individuals ranging from 24 to 56 mm standard length (SL) showed that higher plants, algae, and quironomids larvae dominated the diet in terms of relative volume and occurrence frequency. Therefore, this species was characterized as omnivorous, but there was a growing trend towards herbivory when size class incremed. Smaller size class (< 35 mm SL) fed on higher proportion of animal preys such as quironomids larvae and protozoans, in contrast to larger ones who consumed almost exclusively plants and algae.</p>

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillation on the summer rainfall increase over southern China around 1992/1993

A pronounced summer rainfall increase over southern China occurred around 1992/1993. In the present study, the impact of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) on this decadal increase is investigated through diagnostic analysis. It is found that the BSISO-induced rainfall increase accounts for approximately 17.4% of the observed decadal rainfall increase, with a primary part coming from changes in the rainfall pattern associated with phases 3–5 of the BSISO. A further analysis reveals that changes in rainfall pattern over southern China are mainly ascribed to changes in spatial structure of anomalous convection associated with interdecadal change in BSISO tracks. Apart from significant influence of changes in BSISO tracks, changes in the frequency of individual active BSISO phases also have considerable influence on the interdecadal change in summer rainfall over southern China. Based on our analysis, the increase in absolute and relative frequency of occurrence of phases 1 and 8, coupled with their corresponding rainfall pattern, makes a positive contribution to the increase in southern China summer rainfall. The interdecadal change in the BSISO tracks and the frequency of active BSISO phases is likely related to coherent changes in atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific.

Sensory profile of rooibos originating from the Western and Northern Cape governed by production year and development of rooibos aroma wheel

Aspalathus linearis is cultivated in the Western Cape and Northern Cape provinces of South Africa for the production of rooibos, a herbal tea with a global footprint. A total of 208 samples, spanning the two production areas, three production years and three quality grades, were collected to delineate the effect of production area and year on rooibos sensory properties, as well as to ensure large variation, required for revision of the rooibos sensory wheel. The samples were analysed using descriptive sensory analysis to provide comprehensive profiling of aroma, flavour, taste and mouthfeel attributes. The primary aroma characteristic profile of rooibos, previously described as “rooibos-woody”, “fynbos-floral” and “honey” was confirmed. Other aroma attributes that were perceived frequently and at high intensity in the sample set were “fruity-sweet”, “caramel” and “apricot”. Although not occurring as commonly as those of the primary aroma profile of rooibos, these attributes, manifested in samples from both production areas, forming a secondary aroma profile. In the present study the “hay/dried grass” aroma note appeared in 99% of the rooibos samples at low intensities and could therefore be considered to be part of the “characteristic” aroma profile of rooibos. No clear differences between production areas were evident, but production years could be distinguished based on differences in perceived aroma attribute intensities. The aroma wheel is more user-friendly as it will provide users, at a glance, with the relative importance of attributes (as determined by intensity and occurrence frequency). This is achieved by varying slice width according to the relative mean attribute intensity and the use of accompanying bar graphs indicating relative occurrence frequency of attributes. This quality control and “communication” tool can be used by industry to aid in the grading and marketing of rooibos tea.

People’s conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise)

A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various ‘heuristics’ or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people’s conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people’s estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or ‘direct’ probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk. By definition, only Bayesian probability can be applied to the single case. The Bayesian concept of probability resolves most of the confusion and much of the debate in sex offender risk assessment. Although Bayesian probability is well accepted in risk assessment generally, it has not been widely used to assess the risk of sex offenders. I review the two concepts of probability and show how the Bayesian view alone provides a coherent scheme to conceptualize individuals' risk of sexual recidivism.

Identification and quantitative expression of valuation uncertainty at the property market

The sources of objective, subjective and model valuation uncertainty at the property market are investigated. It is determined that the sources of objective uncertainty are the stochastic nature of the property market, incompleteness and inconsistency of market information. The sources of subjective uncertainty are a low level of analyst qualification and model uncertainty – inadequate valuation model or incorrect of chosen valuation method. It is proved that an approach to valuation of the quality of the results, which is based on the error concept, is deterministic, it is associated with the presence of errors (systematic and random) of measuring instruments and is the frequency interpretation of probability. In approach, which is based on the uncertainty concept, the uncertainty of results is associated exclusively with the measurement process, and not with the measuring instruments. It is a subjective interpretation of probability, which characterizes the degree of confidence. It is proved that the use of more appropriate pricing models makes it possible to understand the complex risks and their impact on management decisions at the property market, but not eliminates an uncertainty.

P300 amplitude variations, prior probabilities, and likelihoods: A Bayesian ERP study.

The capability of the human brain for Bayesian inference was assessed by manipulating probabilistic contingencies in an urn-ball task. Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded in response to stimuli that differed in their relative frequency of occurrence (.18 to .82). A veraged ERPs with sufficient signal-to-noise ratio (relative frequency of occurrence > .5) were used for further analysis. Research hypotheses about relationships between probabilistic contingencies and ERP amplitude variations were formalized as (in-)equality constrained hypotheses. Conducting Bayesian model comparisons, we found that manipulations of prior probabilities and likelihoods were associated with separately modifiable and distinct ERP responses. P3a amplitudes were sensitive to the degree of prior certainty such that higher prior probabilities were related to larger frontally distributed P3a waves. P3b amplitudes were sensitive to the degree of likelihood certainty such that lower likelihoods were associated with larger parietally distributed P3b waves. These ERP data suggest that these antecedents of Bayesian inference (prior probabilities and likelihoods) are coded by the human brain.

Indigenous knowledge of pastoralists on respiratory diseases of camels in northern Kenya

The camel disease terminology of pastoralists in northern Kenya differentiates between two respiratory disease complexes of camels. Participatory epidemiology data were collected in 2011 in three camel keeping communities (Gabra, Garri, and Somali) and analysed to assess the validity of this differentiation. Further queries assessed recurrence of the disease in the same animal, most affected age group, relative frequency of occurrence, morbidity rates, mortality rates and response to antibiotic treatment. Based on matrix scoring the cardinal symptom nasal discharge was significantly correlated with Respiratory Disease Complex 1 (RDC1; Somali Hergeb, Gabra & Garri Furri) while cough was correlated with Respiratory Disease Complex 2 (RDC2; Somali Dhuguta, Gabra Qufa, Garri Dhugud). RDC1 appears to occur regularly every year and does not respond to antibiotic treatments while outbreaks of RDC2 are only observed at intervals of several years and treated cases do generally respond to antibiotics. While RDC1 is more severe in calves, RDC 2 is mostly associated with respiratory disease in adults. Elements of this differentiation appear to be in agreement with other authors who differentiate between camel influenza (PI3 virus) and bacterial camel pneumonia, respectively.

Multilocus sequence typing of Lactobacillus casei isolates from naturally fermented foods in China and Mongolia

Lactobacillus casei is a lactic acid bacterium used in manufacturing of many fermented food products. To investigate the genetic diversity and population biology of this food-related bacterium, 224 Lb. casei isolates and 5 reference isolates were examined by multilocus sequence typing (MLST). Among them, 224 Lb. casei isolates were isolated from homemade fermented foods, including naturally fermented dairy products, acidic gruel, and Sichuan pickles from 38 different regions in China and Mongolia. The MLST scheme was developed based on the analysis of 10 selected housekeeping genes (carB, clpX, dnaA, groEL, murE, pyrG, pheS, recA, rpoC, and uvrC). All 229 isolates could be allocated to 171 unique sequence types, including 25 clonal complexes and 71 singletons. The high index of association value (1.3524) and standardized index of association value (0.1503) indicate the formation of an underlying clonal population by all the isolates. However, split-decomposition, relative frequency of occurrence of recombination and mutation, and relative effect of recombination and mutation in the diversification values confirm that recombination may have occurred, and were more frequent than mutation during the evolution of Lb. casei. Results from Structure analyses (version 2.3; http://pritch.bsd.uchicago.edu/structure.html) demonstrated that there were 5 lineages in the Lb. casei isolates, and the overall relatedness built by minimum spanning tree showed no clear relationship between the clonal complexes with either the isolation sources or sampling locations of the isolates. Our newly developed MLST scheme of Lb. casei was an easy and valuable tool that, together with the construction of an MLST database, will contribute to further detailed studies on the evolution and population genetics of Lb. casei from various niches.

A Bayesian Approach to Identifying New Risk Factors for Dementia: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

Dementia is one of the most disabling and burdensome health conditions worldwide. In this study, we identified new potential risk factors for dementia from nationwide longitudinal population-based data by using Bayesian statistics.We first tested the consistency of the results obtained using Bayesian statistics with those obtained using classical frequentist probability for 4 recognized risk factors for dementia, namely severe head injury, depression, diabetes mellitus, and vascular diseases. Then, we used Bayesian statistics to verify 2 new potential risk factors for dementia, namely hearing loss and senile cataract, determined from the Taiwan's National Health Insurance Research Database.We included a total of 6546 (6.0%) patients diagnosed with dementia. We observed older age, female sex, and lower income as independent risk factors for dementia. Moreover, we verified the 4 recognized risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population; their odds ratios (ORs) ranged from 3.469 to 1.207. Furthermore, we observed that hearing loss (OR = 1.577) and senile cataract (OR = 1.549) were associated with an increased risk of dementia.We found that the results obtained using Bayesian statistics for assessing risk factors for dementia, such as head injury, depression, DM, and vascular diseases, were consistent with those obtained using classical frequentist probability. Moreover, hearing loss and senile cataract were found to be potential risk factors for dementia in the older Taiwanese population. Bayesian statistics could help clinicians explore other potential risk factors for dementia and for developing appropriate treatment strategies for these patients.

Slamming occurrence for a chemical tanker advancing in extreme waves modelled with the nonlinear Schrödinger equation

The relative motion and frequency of slamming occurrence for a chemical tanker advancing in irregular waves are studied in this work. The objective is to develop a numerical method for estimating the probability of slamming occurrence of a chemical tanker, under the two conditions: the relative vertical motion at the same longitudinal position of the ship being larger than the vertical distance from the still water to the concerned position, and the entry velocity exceeding one threshold velocity. Ship motions in extreme waves are firstly estimated by using a fully nonlinear time domain seakeeping programme, while the wave surface modelling is achieved by a nonlinear Schrödinger equation. Then, the probability of slamming occurrence on the bottom of a chemical tanker is predicted statistically based on the relative motions between the cross section of the ship and the wave surface. The numerical results are compared with the experimental data from model tests of a chemical tanker. The effects of the forward speed on the slamming occurrence are studied as well.

Quantitative analysis of the ecological dominance of benthic disaster taxa in the aftermath of the end-Permian mass extinction

AbstractThe end-Permian mass extinction, the largest extinction of the Phanerozoic, led to a severe reduction in both taxonomic richness and ecological complexity of marine communities, eventually culminating in a dramatic ecological restructuring of communities. During the Early Triassic recovery interval, disaster taxa proliferated and numerically dominated many marine benthic invertebrate assemblages. These disaster taxa include the bivalve generaClaraia,Unionites,Eumorphotis, andPromyalina, and the inarticulate brachiopodLingularia. The exact nature and extent of their dominance remains uncertain. Here, a quantitative analysis of the dominance of these taxa within the fossil communities of Panthalassa and Tethys benthic realms is undertaken for the stages of the Early Triassic to examine temporal and regional changes in disaster-taxon dominance as recovery progresses. Community dominance and disaster-taxon abundance is markedly different between Panthalassic and Tethyan communities. In Panthalassa, community evenness is low in the Induan stage but increases significantly in the Smithian and Spathian. This is coincident with a significant decrease in the relative abundance and occurrence frequency of the disaster taxa, most notably of the low-oxygen-affinity taxaClaraiaandLingularia. While the disaster taxa are present in post-Induan assemblages, other taxa, including two articulate brachiopod genera, outrank the disaster taxa in relative abundance. In the Tethys, assemblages are generally more even than contemporaneous Panthalassic assemblages. We observe an averaged trend toward more even communities with fewer disaster taxa in both Panthalassic and Tethyan assemblages over time.

Regime-based evaluation of cloudiness in CMIP5 models

The concept of cloud regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating in each grid cell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product [long-term average total cloud amount (TCA)], cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our results support previous findings that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is still not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP like another model output. Lastly, contrasting cloud simulation performance against each model’s equilibrium climate sensitivity in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter, yields no clear conclusions.

Spatial organization of acute myocardial ischemia

IntroductionMyocardial ischemia is a pathological condition initiated by supply and demand imbalance of the blood to the heart. Previous studies suggest that ischemia originates in the subendocardium, i.e., that nontransmural ischemia is limited to the subendocardium. By contrast, we hypothesized that acute myocardial ischemia is not limited to the subendocardium and sought to document its spatial distribution in an animal preparation. The goal of these experiments was to investigate the spatial organization of ischemia and its relationship to the resulting shifts in ST segment potentials during short episodes of acute ischemia. MethodsWe conducted acute ischemia studies in open-chest canines (N=19) and swines (N=10), which entailed creating carefully controlled ischemia using demand, supply or complete occlusion ischemia protocols and recording intramyocardial and epicardial potentials. Elevation of the potentials at 40% of the ST segment between the J-point and the peak of the T-wave (ST40%) provided the metric for local ischemia. The threshold for ischemic ST segment elevations was defined as two standard deviations away from the baseline values. ResultsThe relative frequency of occurrence of acute ischemia was higher in the subendocardium (78% for canines and 94% for swines) and the mid-wall (87% for canines and 97% for swines) in comparison with the subepicardium (30% for canines and 22% for swines). In addition, acute ischemia was seen arising throughout the myocardium (distributed pattern) in 87% of the canine and 94% of the swine episodes. Alternately, acute ischemia was seen originating only in the subendocardium (subendocardial pattern) in 13% of the canine episodes and 6% of the swine episodes (p<0.05). ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the spatial distribution of acute ischemia is a complex phenomenon arising throughout the myocardial wall and is not limited to the subendocardium.

On Fisher's Review of J M Keynes's A Treatise on Probability - A Fiasco

J M Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability is built on the mathematical and logical foundations of G E Boole’s 1854 The Laws of Thought. Boole introduced the first technical attempt (Adam Smith was the first to specify and solve two such indeterminate problems in The Wealth of Nations) at systematically solving indeterminate, probability problems (where, under uncertainty, relevant knowledge or evidence is missing) using interval valued probability. His systematic techniques were presented in chapters 16-21 of The Laws of Thought. Fisher’s review of the A Treatise on Probability demonstrates an astounding degree of ignorance on his part. Fisher has no idea of what an indeterminate probability is. For Fisher, ALL probabilities MUST be point estimates.We will show that Fisher, a biologist wedded to the Limiting (Relative) Frequency interpretation of probability, had no idea about what Keynes was doing or talking about in Parts I-IV of the A Treatise on Probability. We will conclude that Fisher was foolish to attempt a review of the A Treatise on Probability knowing that he had not read Boole. This conclusion is then shown to apply to practically all modern, twentieth and twenty-first century writers on the A Treatise on Probability.

On a better lower bound for the frequentist probability of coverage of Bayesian credible intervals in restricted parameter spaces

For estimating a lower restricted parametric function in the framework of Marchand and Strawderman (2006), we show how (1−α)×100% Bayesian credible intervals can be constructed so that the frequentist probability of coverage is no less than 1−3α2. As in Marchand and Strawderman (2013), the findings are achieved through the specification of the spending function of the Bayes credible interval and apply to an “equal-tails” modification of the HPD procedure among others. Our results require a logconcave assumption for the distribution of a pivot, and apply to estimating a lower bounded normal mean with known variance, and to further examples include lower bounded scale parameters from Gamma, Weibull, and Fisher distributions, with the latter also applicable to random effects analysis of variance.