Freight Volume Research Articles

Forecasting Brazilian Railway Freight Volume: An Unobserved Components Model Application

Forecasting Brazilian Railway Freight Volume: An Unobserved Components Model Application

Improving the Resilience of Port–Hinterland Container Logistics Transportation Systems: A Bi-Level Programming Approach

Port–hinterland container logistics transportation systems (PHCLTSs) are significant to economic and social development. However, various kinds of unconventional emergency events (UEEs), such as natural or human-caused disasters, threaten PHCLTSs. This study aims to measure and improve the resilience of PHCLTSs. Bi-level programming models with two different lower level models are established to help PHCLTSs recover their capacity efficiently in the face of UEEs. In the upper level model, the government makes immediate recovery decisions about a damaged PHCLTS with the goal of improving the resilience of the PHCLTS. In the lower level models, truck carriers make decisions about transportation routes and freight volume in the recovered PHCLTS. They cooperate fully to pursue the maximization of total profit and are coordinated by a central authority, or they make their own decisions to pursue maximization of their own profit noncooperatively. An algorithm combining particle swarm optimization (PSO) and traditional optimization algorithms is proposed to solve the bi-level programming models. The numerical experimental results show the validity of the proposed models.

Simulation study on carbon emission of China's freight system under the target of carbon peaking

The development of Chinese society needs the support of a perfect and efficient freight transport system. Nonetheless, China's freight system is facing a major challenge in reducing carbon emissions. Hence, firstly, this paper explores three major internal drivers of carbon emissions by analyzing the current situation in China's freight system: proportion of railway freight (PORF), railway electrification level (REL) and electric truck penetration (ETP). Secondly, the system dynamics (SDs) model is used to simulate the carbon emission system of freight transportation in China. Thirdly, this paper sets 13 scenarios of carbon peaking to explore the paths of carbon peaking before 2030 under the three levels of development of ETP oriented freight system. The results indicate that when PORF, REL, and ETP reach 23.96% of total freight volume, 83.7% of rail freight, and 11% of truck freight in 2030 respectively, China's freight system has the most optimistic scenario of carbon peaking. Meanwhile, the time of carbon peaking is 2024, and the peak value is 0.842 billion tons. When PORF, REL, and ETP reach 15.96% of total freight volume, 63.7% of rail freight, and 3% of truck freight in 2030 respectively, China's freight system has the worst scenario of carbon peaking. Meanwhile, the time of carbon peaking is 2029, and the peak value is 1.016 billion tons. Also, it is proved that improving PORF, REL, and ETP is an effective way to achieve green and sustainable development of China's freight industry.

Near real-time loadplan adjustments for less-than-truckload carriers

We design and implement decision support technology to assist dispatchers in the daily management of loadplans in less-than-truckload service networks. The freight volume that enters a service network on the day of operations deviates from the forecast freight volume used to create the loadplan. These deviations cause inefficiencies when the capacity on planned freight paths is no longer sufficient and delays result in missed service promises. Near real-time loadplan adjustments, i.e., rerouting freight on alternate paths, can improve on-time performance without incurring additional cost (e.g., without purchasing additional capacity). The problem of identifying effective alternate freight paths is modeled on a time-expanded network and computationally efficient heuristics are developed for its solution in order to ensure that there is sufficient time to put the adjusted loadplan in place. We demonstrate the practical viability and value of these heuristics in a computational study using real-life data from a large LTL carrier. The results show that on-time performance can be improved without increasing cost, i.e., by rerouting freight and using existing capacity in the service network.

EUROPEAN ITS PLATFORM: RETHINKING ITS

The expectations placed on the existing European transport infrastructure are increasing due to the growing mobility needs of the population on the one hand and the rising volume of freight traffic on the other. The aim of the European ITS Platform is to increase the efficiency of the TEN-T core network through a better use of the existing infrastructure by implementing Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS). It fosters interoperability and the development of uniform technical standards by monitoring and disseminating the results delivered by the five CEF ITS Road Corridor Projects.One major outcome is the drafting of the “Reference Handbook for harmonized ITS Core Service Deployment in Europe”. This digital freely available handbook comprises a series of guidance and advice for use by road authorities and operators to support them in the development of their strategic approach, design development, deployment, installation and operation of ITS and remain compliant with European legislation. Its key features include: Deployment Guidance for 14 different ITS Services, including DATEX reference profiles, Guidance on the provision and use of traffic information provided under the European Directive (2010/40/EU), C-ITS developments, Knowledge gained from the collection of 100 Best Practices etc.

Transportation route optimization based on heuristic algorithm

With the rapid development of Internet technology, many enterprises are committed to finding the best solution in transportation organization and solving the vehicle distribution routing problem. Firstly, this paper introduces the current situation of transportation organization of Sichuan Yida Feiniu Transportation Company, and analyzes the main problems of the company. Secondly, through the prediction of freight volume, prepare the truck vehicle operation plan and optimize the company’s transportation organization and production plan. Finally, the heuristic algorithm is used to establish a mixed integer programming mathematical model to optimize the pooled vehicle distribution path problem and the vehicle distribution path with time window. In terms of centralized vehicle distribution, combined with the actual situation of Sichuan Yida Feiniu Transportation Company, an example is analyzed, the shortest total path is obtained, and the goal of shortest vehicle travel distance is realized. Through the optimization of the company’s transportation organization, this paper is of great significance to improve the company’s transportation organization to a certain extent.

Evaluation of the components of intelligence and greenness in Iranian ports based on network data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach

PurposeCreating green ports, while observing international and international standards and maritime conventions and regulations and moving toward smart ports, can increase the speed of goods transfer, enable the tracking of ships and goods, increase the transparency of statistics, increase the quality and capacity of ports and reduce costs. Hence, the purpose of this study the development and evaluation of ports play a key role in their commercial success. Development policies can be formulated for these ports by properly evaluating their performance indicators. On the other hand, traditional methods of performance evaluation cannot provide a good multidimensional evaluation of the status of ports.Design/methodology/approachMore than 90% of the world’s heavy transit today is carried out by the sea. With this volume of freight, transit accidents are inevitable for ships passing through oceans, seas, waterways, rivers, ports and mooring at docks. Besides, gases from ships’ fuels at sea, especially in ports, oil spills due to maritime incidents, the negligence of the ship’s crew, the use of port equipment, dirty fuel of diesel power substations, etc., have increased greenhouse gases, polluted the environment and endangered human lives.FindingsA new approach has been introduced in the field of port performance evaluation based on the components of greenness and intelligence. This approach performs evaluations in two stages and a network. In this study, the performance of 11 Iranian ports was evaluated based on the network data envelopment analysis approach in 2 stages of greenness and intelligence during 4 years. The results indicated that only 5% of the ports meet the standards of intelligence and greenness.Originality/valueOn the other hand, as shown in the above studies, the issue of green ports is directly related to the development of animal and plant ecosystems in the seas and the environment around ports. The presence of pollution in the ports has caused the animal and plant habitats around the ports to face a complete pollution crisis or to be completely destroyed. Therefore, the development of green port concepts in third world countries will help prevent environmental pollution of the seas. Therefore, it is necessary for ports to review their strategic maritime transport model and use the development of green port indicators in their implementation processes. Therefore, the strategic development of green ports is created to create and benefit from the components of intelligence, and as mentioned in previous research, intelligence and greenness are in line and the lack of development of one of the concepts causes defects in others. According to reports provided in Iran’s maritime transport systems, most accidents have led to environmental disasters during the absence of intelligent equipment. The use of smart technologies prevents all environmental damage and the development of port services. On the other hand, in evaluating the published articles in the field of development of green and smart ports, so far, the components of intelligence and greenness have not been evaluated and analyzed in a practical and operational way in ports and only the influencing the development of agents on each other has been done (Chen, 2019). Therefore, evaluating the efficiency of ports based on green components and intelligence causes ports to fundamentally review their executive infrastructure and take an active part in the global green development plan.

Modelling the effects of emission control areas on shipping company operations and environmental consequences

In this study, two integrated game models are developed to explore the possible economic and environmental consequences of Emission control areas (ECA) regulations. Moreover, the analytical solutions compared with a benchmark case are derived. We find that vessel speed and SO2 emissions will decrease under the ECA regulations. However, shipping company’s level of competition has no effect on the equivalent speed. The equivalent freight volume to be reduced or increased is determined by the additional operational cost per voyage due to ECA regulations. Numerical study and sensitivity analysis reveal that the vessel speed and SO2 emission reduction are very sensitive to the inventory costs of in-transit cargo. Furthermore, if low-sulphur marine gas oil is used throughout the voyage, the SO2 emission reduction may be greater than 80%, with a low impact on the shipping company’s profit. Thus, considering the environmental effects, much stricter limits can be set in the future.

Air Freight Transport Developments in Bulgaria – Trends and Perspectives

Air transport is developing at a rapid pace globally and is of particular importance for the mobility of people and goods. Through its flexibility, it responds to the ever-changing situation in commodity markets and provides the necessary conditions for transport services’ supply and demand in shortening the delivery times. The main subject of analysis in the presented article is the development of air freight transport over the last 12 years. The main results of the analysis of the volumes and changes of freight traffic to and from Bulgarian airports, as well as carried by the main carriers, give the grounds for SWOT analysis and is used to outline the main prospects for the future of air freight transport. The main objective of the survey presented is to outline trends for the development of air freight transport in the country and in particular to clarify the various factors influencing the demand for freight transport by identifying a system of indicators measuring the freight volumes and the loading work carried out, which can be analyzed regularly, and which allows the forecasting of changes in freight volumes during certain periods of time.

Is the Spatial-Temporal Dependence Model Reliable for the Short-Term Freight Volume Forecast of Inland Ports? A Case Study of the Yangtze River, China

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether spatial-temporal dependence models can improve the prediction performance of short-term freight volume forecasts in inland ports. To evaluate the effectiveness of spatial-temporal dependence forecasting, the basic time series forecasting models for use in our comparison were first built based on an autoregression integrated moving average model (ARIMA), a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), and support vector regression (SVR). Subsequently, combining a gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) with SVR, an SVR-GBDT model for spatial-temporal dependence forecast was constructed. The SVR model was only used to build a spatial-temporal dependence forecasting model, which does not distinguish spatial and temporal information but instead takes them as data features. Taking inland ports in the Yangtze River as an example, the results indicated that the ports’ weekly freight volumes had a higher autocorrelation with the previous 1–3 weeks, and the Pearson correlation values of the ports’ weekly cargo volume were mainly located in the interval (0.2–0.5). In addition, the weekly freight volumes of the inland ports were higher depending on their past data, and the spatial-temporal dependence model improved the performance of the weekly freight volume forecasts for the inland river. This study may help to (1) reveal the significance of spatial correlation factors in ports’ short-term freight volume predictions, (2) develop prediction models for inland ports, and (3) improve the planning and operation of port entities.

Infrastructure Modeling and Optimization to Solve Real-time Railway Traffic Management Problems

Rail transportation helps to reach the global climate targets because it is characterized by low emission. The passenger and freight volumes on the railway increase yearly in line with EU targets. However, delays of passenger and freight trains decrease the punctuality and the reliability of the railway sector and the development of the infrastructure is not enough to increase the average speed of trains. Delays mean cost to the passengers, railway operators, infrastructure managers, and all railway undertakers. Therefore, the reason for the most significant optimization target is to minimize delays. In this paper, a possible solution has been described to solve the real-time railway traffic management problems by applying a mixed-integer linear programming approach. For validation of the research result, one simplified case study has been presented. Based on the result, the presented solution can provide effective support to dispatchers in solving real-time traffic management problems.

Forecasting the Cargo Throughput for Small and Medium-sized Ports: Multi-stage Approach with Reference to the Multi-port System

Purpose: The paper aims to elaborate on long-term throughput forecasts in Small and Medium-Sized ports (SMPs). The research problem relates to determining a method that is relevant for the long-term transhipment forecasting in SMPs. Design/Methodology/Approach: Research was applied to the Polish ports system consisting of three major ports (Gdansk, Gdynia, and Świnoujście) and the minor port of Szczecin. Forecasts for the cargo groups in the major ports were produced using regression models where the model parameters were estimated with the Ordinary Least Squares Method. The obtained forecasts of the throughput of cargo groups in major Polish seaports were converted into dynamics indices. The resulting matrices of the cargo throughput dynamics indices established for the leading Polish seaports were used to prepare cargo throughput forecasts for the port of Szczecin. Findings: Elaborated throughput forecasts indicate that, in the future, the port in Szczecin will retain its universal character, and a moderate increase in the cargo volumes confirms that it will serve as a complementary port to the major ports in the range. The forecasted modal split of hinterland transport indicates the increasing importance of road transport, and a decreased rail and inland waterway transport to/from the hinterland. That is likely due to a lower cargo throughput and difficulties in organizing the rail and inland waterway corridors based on smaller freight volumes. Practical implications: The study provides a practical tool for long-term throughput and hinterland traffic forecasting in SMPs. It is addressed to port authorities as the method may be used in decision-making on capacity expansion and academics exploring the phenomenon of predictions in maritime transport. Originality/Values: The novel method of demand forecasting in SMPs includes relations between major and minor ports in the range and multi-staged validation of results. Research advances studies on the dynamics of multi-port systems.

Research on Freight Development of Guangdong Province Based on Grey Theory Model

Logistics and economic development complement each other. The comprehensive competitiveness of Guangdong provincial economy ranks first in China. Under the influence of COVID-19, the freight development of Guangdong Province has been affected, but there is still lack of quantitative research. It is significant to explore the trend of economic development through the freight development of Guangdong Province. Based on the grey theory model, this paper uses six freight indexes to research freight development of Guangdong Province. Under the assumption that COVID-19 did not happen, we predicted the development value of freight index of Guangdong Province from January to December in 2020 and studied the influence based on the comparison between the predicted value and actual value. The empirical study shows three impact characteristics: stage characteristics, structural characteristics, and entity transmission characteristics. COVID-19 has a negative impact on the development of total freight volume, highway freight volume, waterway freight volume, and air freight volume in Guangdong Province. The influence values were −23.001%, −29.344%, −11.296%, and −3.838%. But, the freight volumes of railway and pipeline were positively affected by 14.343% and 13.057%, respectively, due to their continuity and substitution to other transportation modes. To further explore the abate measures of COVID-19 impact on Guangdong’s freight development, the grey correlation model is introduced to study the correlation factors of freight development of Guangdong Province. Through the research of the related factors, this paper puts forward some measures to promote the freight development of Guangdong Province in the postepidemic era.

A Monitoring and Evaluation Sustainability Framework for Road Freight Transporters in South Africa

Growing freight volumes contribute to negative impacts on the environment and social aspects. In South Africa, an overreliance on road freight transportation systems (RFTS) over alternative modes of transport puts a further strain on the RFTS. Hence, there was a need to develop a monitoring and evaluation (M&E) sustainability assessment framework. The framework development was guided by a multistage process: Firstly, Identifying Constructs and Variables relevant to the study. Secondly, Developing the M&E Framework included defining sustainability in the transport sector, using themes emerging from an operational definition and South Africa’s vision for transport sustainability. Thirdly, Soliciting inputs and measures were utilized in developing the framework. Finally, the Validity and Reliability of the framework was tested. This study developed an M&E framework, which affords organizations a balanced mechanism for tracking inputs towards transport system sustainability, facilitating infrastructure decision-making and driving RFTS sustainability. As road freight transport contributes the most towards environmental unsustainability of the sector, this mode also holds the greatest opportunity to reduce its impact. The M&E framework will enable role-players to plan, execute, and monitor their RFTS interventions in a balanced way.

Decision analysis of the optimal freight structure at provincial level in China.

In recent years, considering the railway and waterway are cleaner ways of freight transportation, the Chinese government has vigorously promoted the adjustment of the transportation structure of the freight industry to reduce carbon emissions. However, with such a macroscopic objective, it remains a crucial problem for the policy-maker to further determine: how to estimate the optimal value of the share of freight volume among roadway, railway, and waterway regionally? To this end, this paper first quantified and analyzed the economic benefits, carbon emission intensity, and input-output efficiency of different transportation modes in each province. Then, with the goal of maximizing the efficiency of the freight transportation system, considering the carbon emission intensity reduction constraint and the economic output non-reduction constraint, an optimization model is constructed to obtain the freight structure adjustment plan in each province. Finally, taking the constraint of the carbon emission reduction targets by the 13th Five-Year Plan period as a case, the specific volume of roadway turnover transferred to waterway and railway in each province is given; the results show that Anhui, Beijing, Jiangxi, Tibet Autonomous Region, and Heilongjiang should focus on transferring the freight share of roadway to the railway, and the transferred shares are 15.36%, 14.12%, 10.21%, 8.22%, and 7.36% of road freight turnover. Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong should focus on transferring the freight share of the roadway to the waterway, and the transferred shares are 18.44%, 7.90%, and 6.45% of road freight turnover, providing a reference for relevant government departments to formulate measures.

A Cooperative Intermodal Transportation Network Flow Control Method Based on Model Predictive Control

With the development of information technology, intermodal transport research pays more attention to dynamic optimization and multi-role cooperation. The core issue of this paper was to realize container routing with dynamic adjustment, real-time optimization, and multi-role cooperation characteristics in the intermodal transport network. This paper first introduces the Intermodal Transport Cooperation Protocol (ITCP) that describes the operation and analysis of intermodal transport systems with the concept of encapsulation and layering. Then, a new network flow control method was built based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) in the ITCP framework. The method takes real-time information from all ITCP layers as input and generates flow control decisions for containers. To evaluate the method’s effectiveness, a discrete event simulation experiment is applied. The results show that the proposed method outperforms the all-or-nothing method in scenarios with high freight volume, which means the method proposed in this paper can effectively balance the network transport load and reduce network operating costs. The research of this paper may throw some new light on intermodal transport research from the perspectives of digitization, multi-role cooperation, dynamic optimization, and system standardization.

Air quality improvement via modal shift: Assessment of rail-water-port integrated system planning in Shenzhen, China

The escalating concerns regarding air pollution problems surrounding port cities have attracted much research attention. The Port of Shenzhen is one of the busiest container ports worldwide, only third to Shanghai and Singapore globally. However, 70% of the freight transportation demand is satisfied via on-road trucks, leading to serious traffic congestion, road accidents and air pollution issues in the city of Shenzhen. This study aims to assess the environmental benefits of modal shift of port-connecting freight transportation by increasing the use of rail and waterborne systems in Shenzhen. To evaluate the environmental benefits of the multimodal transportation strategy in 2025, we employed traffic datasets with a high spatial resolution and a transportation demand model to establish emission inventories and applied them in air quality simulations. Our results indicate that the implementation of multimodal transportation systems could notably reduce the truck volume along major freight corridors, except for roads adjacent to the planned inland ports. The freight traffic activities along the major freight corridors are reduced by nearly 70% over the original freight volume, resulting in a drastic reduction in the emission intensity. Under the most progressive policy-enhanced strategy (PPP) scenario, the total well-to-wheel (WTW) NOX, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and CO2 emissions could be reduced by 8881 t, 104.8 t and 688 × 103 t, respectively. The NO2 concentration in traffic-intensive areas could be reduced by 5 μg/m3, and the 8-h maximum O3 concentration could be reduced by 0.34 μg/m3 on the average (up to 1.1 μg/m3 in certain areas). Our research indicates that a shift from traditional road transport to cleaner railway and waterway transport could deliver transportation and environmental benefits to port cities.

Corrosion-fatigue life assessment of RC plate girder in heavy-haul railway under combined carbonation and train loads

Fatigue performance of RC plate girder was experimentally investigated. A corrosion-fatigue life assessment approach of railway RC girders under combined carbonation and train loads was proposed. The proposed approach was applied to an 8 m-span RC plate girder in an existing heavy-haul railway bridge, and the effects of annual freight volume, train axle weight, and carbonation environment level on corrosion-fatigue life were analyzed. Results indicate that annual freight volume, train axle weight, and carbonation environment level have a significant impact on corrosion-fatigue life, which can decrease the remaining corrosion-fatigue life by up to 48.71%, 91.11%, and 60.90%, respectively.

Effectiveness evaluation of freight subsidy policy from a broader clean production view – Case study of the Yiwu-Ningbo container freight corridor, China

The effectiveness of a specific freight subsidy policy is typically evaluated by a single indicator, i.e., decrease of road freight volume or emissions, from a civilian perspective. However, the approach from a narrow clean production perspective ignores the influences of the policy on other entities (e.g., shippers and consignees). This study proposes an evaluation framework based on cost-benefit analysis (CBA) from a broader view, i.e., more elements related to benefit and cost are incorporated in the CBA, to comprehensively and accurately assess the effectiveness of freight subsidy policies. Accordingly, the necessary and sufficient condition for an effective subsidy policy is derived. Then, this framework is employed for a case study of the Yiwu-Ningbo container freight corridor. The results indicate that, whether the subsidy policy is effective largely depends on the connotations of benefit and cost in the CBA. Moreover, the current subsidy policy of the Yiwu-Ningbo case is ineffective, unless time cost can be decreased by shortening the rail transportation chain time from the supply side, or by increasing the time upper threshold from the demand perspective. These results remind policy makers that when issuing or revising subsidy policies, they need to carefully consider the implementation background. Otherwise, these policies may lead to resource waste from a broader clean production view.

Analysis of the Operating Model on the Existing South Section of Xinyi-Changxing Railway

Operating suburban trains on existing railways has been highly valued in China due to the advantages of activating railway resources, reducing construction costs and improving the overall transportation efficiency. As a result, it is proposed that ‘operating suburban trains on existing railways’ is the key task of improving urban rail transit network. Recently, south section of existing Xinyi-Changxing Railway has experienced low passenger and freight volume, idle capacity and underutilized corridor resources. To take fully advantages of existing railway corridor resource, the study provides 5 schemes to operate suburban trains on the existing south section of Xinyi-Changxing Railway: Scheme A. Operating DMU trains on existing railway; Scheme B. Open reserved stations + operating DMU trains; Scheme C. Open reserved stations + electrification + operating EMU trains; Scheme D. Open reserved stations + electrification + operating EMU trains + increasing designed speed to 160km/h; Scheme E. Electrification + constructing a double track. The study could provide reference for the further research on operating suburban trains on the existing railways.