Fragile Economy Research Articles

Nested risks and responsibilities: Perspectives on fertilizer from human urine in two U.S. regions

This paper reports on social research investigating perceptions concerning the diversion of urine from the waste stream and its use as fertilizer in two study regions, New England and the Upper Mid­west. We hypothesized that discomfort or disgust might affect acceptance of such a shift in human “waste” management. However, our findings suggest that a more significant concern of those potentially involved in this process may be distrust of how economic interests influence scientific and technical information. Both physical risks (to the environment and public health) and socio-political risks (to fragile farm economies and consumer communities) play out at individual, household, regional, and global scales. We describe the intersection of these complex understandings as nested risks and responsibilities that must inform the future of urine reclamation. Our respondents' shared concern about environmental risks has already galvanized communities to take responsibility for implementing closed-loop alternatives to current agricul­tural inputs and waste management practices in their communities. Attention to these nested understandings of both risk and responsibility should shape research priorities and foster participatory approaches to urine nutrient reclamation, including strategies for education, planning, regulation, technology design, and agricultural application.

How a Good Governance of Institutions Can Reduce Poverty and Inequality in Society for Supporting a Sustainable Economic Development?

The main aim of this study is to analyze how institutional change, measured with a set of governance indicators, can reduce poverty and inequality in society that are essential prerequisites for supporting sustainable economic growth of nations. This study investigates 191 countries to explain the relationships between institutional variables and socioeconomic factors of nations with different level of development. Central findings suggest that a good governance of institutions supports a reduction of poverty and income inequality in society. In particular, results here show that the critical role of good governance for reducing inequality and poverty has a higher effect in countries with stable economies than emerging and fragile economies. Overall, then, this study reveals that countries should focus on institutional change directed to improve governance effectiveness and rule of law that can reduce the poverty and inequality, and as a consequence support the long-run socioeconomic development of nations.

Was a forced lockdown adequate for a country in conflict? A psychological perspective from the Syrian population.

Background: Syria has suffered for nine years from a conflict that left over 11.1 million inhabitants in need of humanitarian assistance and over 80% in poverty. A ten-week-long full lockdown was enforced in Syria and successfully minimized the spread of COVID-19. This study aims to estimate the occurrence of mental health disorders after lockdown termination among the citizens of war-torn Syria.Methods: Online questionnaires, which included demographic and war-related questions, Dimensions of Anger Reactions 5 (DAR-5) and the Depression Anxiety Stress Scale-21 (DASS-21) were distributed to different social media groups.Results: This study recruited 1445 participants, of which 515 (35.6%) were males, the mean age was 24.8 ± 6.3 years, 38% had problematic anger, 64% had moderate to very severe depression, 42.9% had moderate to severe anxiety and 39.7% had moderate to severe stress. Increased living expenses, not being able to go out and a reduced ability to earn income and provide food were significantly associated with the psychological burden after the lockdown (p < 0.05). The association of war variables with mental disorders was weaker than the effect of the deteriorating economy. Other healthcare workers had more severe distress than doctors, who themselves were found to have less distress than the general population (p < 0.05). Anger scores were approximately equal, regardless of the type of work. Finally, shisha smoking was associated with worse mental health (p < 0.05).Conclusion: The psychological burden of the damaged economy surpassed the direct damage due to COVID-19 and the effect of years of conflict. Urgent interventions are required, as this burden may continue for years, if not for decades. A full lockdown in countries with fragile economies may delay the spread of the virus, but it will severely damage the economy, which will lead to a deterioration of the mental health of their citizens.

The Occurrence of Conflicts and the Social Divide Do They Affect the Economic Growth of Sub-Saharan African Fragile Countries?

The article is an empirical analysis of the relationship between social divide, the occurrence of conflict and economic growth. By examining the impact of the social divide and conflict on the economic growth of six countries in sub-Saharan Africa as well as the effects of predicted variables conflict and economic growth on the social divide, we use ARDL models from the econometric perspective to study the link between conflicts and growth then the Generalized Moments Method (GMM) to solve the endogeneity problem of our main variables and, this from dynamic panel data relating to the period 1980- 2008. The results reveal that conflict destroys economic growth and conversely, economic growth creates new social divides that increase the opportunity for conflict and depress activity. The intensity of the conflicts in these countries seems to be able to project fragile economies more quickly on trajectories which lead them less towards their level of long-term equilibrium growth. Indeed, conflict assessment should be a central concern of development economists for the sake of economic recovery. Finally, the poor performance in terms of growth cannot be blamed on the conflicts whose exacerbation is the cause, but must lead decision-makers to reflect on the structural causes.

Knowledge, Attitudes, and Practices Related to COVID-19 Among Malawi Adults: A Community-Based Survey.

Introduction: It is well-recognized that containing COVID-19 successfully is determined by people’s prevention measures which are related to their knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP). This perception has attracted attention in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) due to their fragile health systems and economies. The objective of this study was to understand how residents in Malawi perceived COVID-19, to determine the factors related to KAP. Methods: A semi-structured questionnaire was used for the data collection. A field-based survey was conducted among adult residents in Lilongwe, Malawi. Descriptive statistic, linear regression, the Chi-square test, and Pearson’s correlation statistics were used for data analysis. Results: A total of 580 questionnaires were involved. The mean knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) scores were 10 (SD = ±3, range: 3–19), 16 (SD = ±4, range: 5–25), and 2 (SD = ±1, range: 0–5), respectively. Lack of money and resources (39%) was the biggest challenge for people who practice prevention measures. Among the participants, the radio (70%) and friends/family (56%) were the main sources of information. A higher economic status was associated with better KAP. Conclusions: A low level of KAP was detected among the population. The people faced challenges regarding a lack of necessary preventive resources and formal information channels. The situation was worse considering vulnerable population who had low economic status. Further all-round health education is urgently needed along with providing adequate health supplies and ensuring proper information management.

Financial globalization, institutions and economic growth impact on financial sector development in fragile countries using GMM estimator

Purpose- The aim of the research is to predict the impact of financial globalization, institutional quality and economic growth on financial development in fragile economies. In this paper the panel data consists of Turkey, Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina, Egypt, Pakistan’s annual data from 1995-2017. Methodology –System GMM dynamic panel data approach has been applied to deal with simultaneity bias and endogeneity bias when the explanatory variable is correlated with the residual disturbance term. The System GMM estimator combines regression in differences with regression in levels to get rid of the individual specific effects and along with it any time invariant regressor. The models are estimated by using one step system GMM estimator in other words Arellano and Bover /Blundell and Bond System Generalized Moments Method. Findings- The results show that economic growth and financial development are positively related. Thanks to financial development interest rates can be determined by market conditions and financial intermediaries can minimize transaction costs and information acquisition costs can be minimized. Empirical findings suggest policy guidelines for developing financial sector by using economic growth as an economic instrument. Conclusion- The paper concludes that economic growth have significant impact on financial development so both financial institutions and financial markets development in fragile countries. For less developed countries, developments in institutions are likely to have far greater direct effects on growth than financial development itself. When the financial system is developed, Institutional improvements can also deliver more growth. Since global standards for institutions such as International Country Risk Guide, Global Government Indicators increase, it seems also developing ountries are aware of the importance of institutional quality on economic growth. The findings suggest that financial development is affected by economic growth, inflation and population in fragile countries.

The Covid-19 pandemic in low- and middle-income countries, who carries the burden? Review of mass media and publications from six countries

ABSTRACT During the Covid-19 pandemic, rich countries employed lockdown and physical distancing policies for transmission control. However, the question still remains whether these measures are also suitable in countries with a fragile economy, which rests mainly on the informal sector. The impacts of lockdown measures in disadvantaged population strata in six low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) were reviewed using i) 93 media reports and ii) 17 published scientific papers. This review showed that those who suffered the most from the lockdown were migrants, workers in the large informal sector, small businesses, slum dwellers, women and elderly, revealing the social, cultural and economic inequalities of societies. Financial and food support for the poor was inadequate and sometimes mismanaged. In the better organized societies, the resilience was stronger (South Korea, Kerala/India) but here also the poor had to suffer the most. It is strongly recommended that outbreak response strategies should particularly focus on the poor and vulnerable population.

Financial Inclusion in Zimbabwe: Determinants, Challenges, and Opportunities

Financial inclusion is a highly topical issue for policymakers since inclusive finance is viewed as a channel of social and economic development. Therefore, this paper seeks to ascertain and examine the determinants, challenges, and opportunities for financial inclusion in Zimbabwe. The research is done by examining existing literature and estimating Logit and Probit models. This paper finds that, the major determinants of financial inclusion in Zimbabwe are; gender, age, education, income levels, employment status, the cost of financial services, account opening requirements, and level of trust in the financial system. Challenges to financial inclusion in Zimbabwe include; financial illiteracy, lack of formal identification documents, lack of trust in the financial system, fragile economy, rural poor and gender inequality, and high transaction costs of financial services. However, mobile money services such as Eco-cash, Tel-cash, and One-money have proved an opportunity for inclusive finance in Zimbabwe. Furthermore, the establishment of the women’s Bank of Zimbabwe is one of the strategies to enhance inclusive finance for women in Zimbabwe. The simplified KYC requirements for low-income groups and the financial inclusion strategy commissioned by the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe are hoped to promote financial inclusion. This paper recommended that to make finance inclusive, the government should develop policies that target marginalized groups such as the elderly, rural population, low-income earners, females, and the unemployed. The government should also develop a strong consumer protection regulatory framework, promote financial literacy, reduce the transaction cost of financial services and encourage the use of accounts with simplified KYC requirements to ease documentation needs.

Kırılgan Ekonomilerde Finansal Gelişme Düzeyinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi

This study aims to analyse the impact of financial development on economic growth for fragile five economies, which are based on the country classification by Morgan Stanley. Accordingly, Shin cointegration, Fourier Shin cointegration, and Toda-Yamamoto causality analyses were performed for the annual observations from 1980 to 2017. Fourier Shin cointegration test results reveal the existence of a long-run relationship between economic growth and financial development, capital stock, and human development index for four countries, namely Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey. On the other hand, Shin cointegration test results indicate the existence of cointegration relationship between series for Brazil, Indonesia, and South Africa. Dynamic Least Squares estimator shows that financial development has positive and statistically significant coefficients for four countries, namely India, Indonesia, South Africa, and Turkey (except Brazil). Finally, Toda-Yamamoto causality analyses reveal that there is only a unidirectional causality running from financial development to economic growth for Indonesia and South Africa. The findings reveal that the level of financial development is a significant parameter in fragile economies' sustainable growth processes.

Eco-Currency: Proposition of a Monetary Policy Design for a Unitary Currency Program of a Frailty Economic Zone

The desire to rule a system has never been the interest of a contemporary civilize man rather than to successfully govern. The discoverable tool of a modern man as the greatest invention, to centrally manage a complex market system, dynamically evolving in it, the interaction process of agents, has been a quality policy design and application, which is often guided by an advanced theoretical inductive inference, deduce from historic experience in a framework of assumptions relating to a working system. The constructive foundation of this paper does appreciate the fact that in the practice of policy for unitary currency program involving sovereign nations, is not entirely new epistemology in the field of monetary economics, however, this very study is a complete unique in its deduction because it involves fragile economies managing soft currencies against hard currency economies, to promote sustainable growth, and compel for a competitive development using natural rate of interest as a policy sign-post.

It Takes More than Two to Tango with COVID-19: Analyzing Argentina's Early Pandemic Response (Jan 2020-April 2020).

In November 2019, the world was introduced to a new coronavirus that has since ravaged it. Argentina began to see an increase of COVID-19 quickly in the new year and as of April 2020 the country was still being burdened by the transmission of the virus. With the progression of the epidemic turning into a pandemic, health authorities constantly updated health prevention strategies and responses to the novel coronavirus in its first wave. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued a level three warning for international travel to/from Argentina because of COVID-19′s rapid transmission. With Argentina’s already fragile economy, health systems had to meet the challenge of being able to treat the infected. This case presentation aims to provide an overview of Argentina’s earliest epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 pandemic. The data provided in this study concern Argentina’s COVID-19 situation during the period of January 2020–April 2020. Mathematical modeling was used to forecast COVID-19 transmission after the first wave, specifically focusing on Buenos Aires. The country’s demographics and an impression of its health systems will be analyzed in this case presentation for preparedness. The case study concludes in depicting Argentina’s current and anticipated economic, social, and political disruptions because of the first wave of the pandemic.

Contributory role of SARS-CoV-2 genomic variations and life expectancy in COVID-19 transmission and low fatality rate in Africa

BackgroundThe novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has claimed lots of lives, posing a dire threat to global health. It was predicted that the coronavirus outbreak in the African population would be very lethal and result to economic devastation owing to the prevalence of immune-compromised population, poverty, low lifespan, fragile health care systems, poor economy, and lifestyle factors. Accumulation of mutations gives virus selective advantage for host invasion and adaptation, higher transmissibility of more virulent strains, and drug resistance. The present study determined the severe acute respiratory syndrome-2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomic variability and the contributory factors to the low COVID-19 fatality in Africa. To assess the SARS-CoV-2 mutational landscape, 924 viral sequences from the Africa region with their sociobiological characteristics mined from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) database were analyzed.ResultsMutational analysis of the SARS-CoV-2 sequences revealed highly recurrent mutations in the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein D614G (97.2%), concurrent R203K, and G204R (65.2%) in the nucleocapsid phosphoprotein, and P4715L (97.2%) in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase flagging these regions as SARS-CoV-2 mutational hotspots in the African population. COVID-19 is more severe in older people (> 65 years); Africa has a low percentage of people within this age group (4.36%). The average age of the infected patients observed in this study is 46 years with only 47 infected patients (5.1%) above 65 years in Africa in comparison to 13.12% in countries in other continents with the highest prevalence of COVID-19.ConclusionsAfrica’s young generation, the late incidence of the disease, and adherence to public health guidelines are important indicators that may have contributed to the observed low COVID-19 deaths in Africa. However, with the easing of lockdown and regulatory policies, daily increasing incidence in most countries, and low testing and sequencing rate, the epidemiology and the true impact of the pandemic in Africa remain to be unraveled.

A new combination of Fourier unit root tests: a PPP application for fragile economies

ABSTRACT This study offers a new unit root test procedure that is based on the combination of Fourier ADF and Fourier KSS unit root tests by using Fisher’s statistics. The main advantage of this approach is that it is a useful method, especially in cases where the findings obtained from the two test methods differ. In this paper, we investigate the mean-reverting properties of the real exchange rate series for seven fragile economies. Fourier ADF and Fourier KSS tests results point to different findings. When the combination unit root test is applied, it is confirmed that the real exchange rate series are stationary for four fragile economies, namely Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Mexico.

Dopo la Grande Guerra Violenza, Stati e Società Tra Adriatico Orientale e Balcani

Dopo la Grande Guerra Violenza, Stati e Società Tra Adriatico Orientale e Balcani

A corpus-based study of metaphors used to describe Syrian refugees in Jordanian politico-economic discourse

Abstract This study aims to examine the metaphors used to describe Syrian refugees in Jordanian politico-economic discourse, adopting a Critical Metaphor Analysis Approach for data analysis. I compiled a specialised corpus containing political and economic articles from two daily Jordanian newspapers. The data was analysed using WordSmith Tools (Scott 2012), which is compatible with Arabic data. The data analysis reveals that several metaphors are used to describe Syrian refugees in Jordanian politico-economic discourse. The majority of metaphors employed have negative connotations in the contexts in which they are used, especially in the years 2015 and 2016 compared with 2012. The metaphors used reflect the internal struggle of Jordanians in relation to whether Syrian refugees should stay or leave. The struggle stems from deeply-entrenched Arab traditions, which make receiving guests perceived as a duty on the one hand, and the economic struggle of Jordanians living in a fragile economy, on the other.

The evolution of European economic institutions during the COVID-19 crisis.

This article argues that the incomplete economic and institutional integration of the euro area has exposed the monetary union to increasing economic divergence, which could be deepened by the COVID‐19 crisis. We discuss how monetary and fiscal measures implemented at the onset of the pandemic have contributed to mitigate the economic consequences of lockdowns, but provided limited insurance to narrow economic gaps across member countries. However, EU countries agreed on July 21, 2020 to develop, for the first time, countercyclical fiscal transfers financed by common debt issuance. We discuss the potential of this instrument to contribute to improve the resilience of the eurozone.

Rural Outreach Africa during COVID-19: Reaching those who fall through the CRACKS

Here we go again. Just when we thought we could reopen the economy and even send children back to school, we see a resurgence in COVID-19 numbers. There are still too many challenges. Economies are on their knees, and yet grim as it looks, one sees opportunities. If these lockdowns resume, fragile economies will sink to levels never seen before in recent times and probably most difficult to recover from.

Debt sustainability in fragile economies: the case of zimbabwe

Zimbabwe’s efforts to reduce domestic and external debt to lower levels remain futile. It continues to grow. In December 2018 domestic debt stood at 98% of GDP, external debt at 70%. It has accelerated the re-engagement with the World Bank, IMF, AfDB and EIB and bi-lateral creditors. The study sought to analyse the sustainability of the growth in Zimbabwe’s debt. The objectives were namely to identify the key fiscal and macroeconomic variables that influence public debt dynamics in Zimbabwe; assess the effects of unsustainable debt on economic growth and development in Zimbabwe; and to explore strategies of managing debt sustainability. Data was collected through in-depth interviews and questionnaires. The study concluded that Zimbabwe’s debt is not sustainable due to non concessionary debts, limited productivity and weak institutional frameworks. Government should conduct a comprehensive debt audit to determine legitimate and illegitimate public debt, strengthen institutions and regulatory framework.

The Collaboration of Tourism in Rural Sustainability (Case Study: Gelan Rural Region, Amol County)

Purpose- Rural areas experience various economic and social tensions such as population instability and limited job opportunities, which place villages at risk. Rural tourism can improve the economic activities that increase the population and improve the economy because tourism transforms a fragile economy with dynamic activities that enable the establishment of service enterprises and bring about entrepreneurship opportunities. This study aimed to model the multilateral effects of tourism on rural sustainability. Design/methodology/approach- This research applied the theoretical-pragmatic approach. Data were collected using library and field studies. Field studies are a prominent element in the analysis of results. In this course, the systematic questionnaire was used for the extraction of the field database. Using the Cochran formula, the sample size was estimated 214 people. Furthermore, the interrelationship Structural Equation Model (SEM) was applied to analyze the networks of variations. Also, path analysis and partial least squares regression model was adopted to model the interrelationship between the variables observing the systematic nature of the sustainability approach. Findings- Tourism is an accelerating tool in rural permanency. It stimulates the stability of the population, cultural similarities, and promotion of rural culture, which subsequently establish rural sustainability. On the other hand, as land use change is acknowledged as one of the unfavorable consequences of tourism, support for the environmental aspect is mentioned as a necessary factor for sustainability. Tourists should also recognize the eminent function of the environment in rural settlements to ensure that promoting the entire aspect of sustainability results in rural stabilization. Practical implications- Specifically, tourism develops social solidarity through the formation of micro-businesses and particular rural entrepreneurship that directly and indirectly contribute to the expansion of job creation in rural settlements. Also, these mechanisms are involved in producing local capital that strengthens sustainable rural income and livelihood. On the other hand, tourism highlights the significance of the environment, and its protection is essential to the rural sustainability.

The COVID-19 Paradox and Exit Strategy for Nepal

Nepal’s challenges in combating the COVID-19 pandemic include a fragile economy, inadequate preparedness, open borders with India, and China. So far, Nepal has a toll of 22972 cases with 75 deaths as of August 10, 2020. Although, certain postulates like innate factors and the difference in virulence among different strains may have some protective effect as shown by the mild clinical picture in COVID-19 affected Nepalese citizens; the escalation of the daily number of cases is very alarming when the active cases in most of the countries are decreasing. So far, the cases have an increasing trend which shows that the government’s strategies are not working in favor of limiting the disease. This paper reviews how Nepal is tackling pandemic, comparing its strategy with the global scenario and reviewing efficiency of our previously adopted measures with an aim to understand the paradox of unique trend of pandemic in the South Asian region. With unsatisfactory results of current steps and injured economy, Nepal needs revise its strategy especially addressing the areas that need strengthening and incorporate this with the current re-opening plans as we move towards normalcy. Therefore, the government needs to come up with effective strategies including mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery to manage this global pandemic.