ABSTRACT In South Africa, support for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) dropped steadily from 70 percent in 2004 to 40 percent in 2024. How did the support bases of the ruling and opposition parties shift during this period of ANC decline? Drawing on three surveys of voters (total N = 6,804) from Black working class communities – conducted during the 2014, 2016, and 2019 elections – this study considers changes across three terrains of division: sociodemographic factors, material conditions, and protest. The results demonstrate substantial variation across the three elections, with ANC support moving towards older voters, social grant recipients, and the full-time employed. The voting patterns of protesters varied over time and with respect to the form of protest (worker, community, or student) and residential area, affirming the volatility of South African politics.
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