Simulating Forest Transition for Sustainable Forestry Planning in Japan: A Backcasting Model of Roundwood Supply and Carbon Stocks with Operational and Regional Considerations

Improved forest management (IFM), particularly the transition of even-aged forests to continuous cover forestry (CCF), is gaining attention as a management approach that may contribute to climate change mitigation by enhancing forest carbon sequestration and maintaining soil carbon storage. CCF aims to maintain continuous tree cover over time by using selective harvesting and natural regeneration instead of clear-cutting (CC), and is promoted as a forest management method that enhances productivity, ecological, and social benefits. Using a Scots pine stand management in Poland, we evaluated the profitability, harvest rates, and carbon fluxes of CCF compared to traditional CC. We used discounted cash flow models to assess the potential benefits of transitioning even-aged Scots pine stands to a CCF regime. At the assumed 5% discount rate, CC management had higher Land Expectation Values (LEVs), while CCF had higher internal rates of return (IRR) for lower land acquisition prices of 8,000 EUR or less. For land prices ranging from 9,000 to 11,000 EUR, IRRs varied considerably depending on the age at which the stand was transitioned to CCF. Purchasing older forests, which then produced earlier harvest revenues, was more profitable. CC management consistently produced more wood per hectare than CCF, but since CCF had lower input costs, the costs per tonne of CO2e were similar between the two management regimes, as were the wood production costs. Our findings highlight important trade-offs, suggesting that while CCF may not always maximize wood yields, it can offer competitive financial performance under favorable land prices while simultaneously supporting climate mitigation objectives.

Abstract The Industrial Revolution triggered rural abandonment in Europe and had a profound impact on land configuration and ecosystem dynamics, mainly the growth of forests at the expense of open agricultural habitats. However, rural abandonment has been asynchronous in space and time, depending on regional socio‐economic dynamics. In Mediterranean islands, abandonment occurred at a very fast pace, and it started much later when the tourist industry substituted for the Industrial Revolution. Here, we analysed historical (1956) and recent (2019) aerial images in the Tramuntana range (Mallorca Island, western Mediterranean) to quantify changes in major land covers (woodlands, shrublands and agricultural areas) with insights into the mechanisms of change gained through semi‐structured interviews documenting the traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of elderly residents regarding past land‐use practices. The results confirm a transition from agricultural landscapes, which lost 40% of their area, to forests, which doubled their surface. This transition was similar in all study regions, although wildfires in the drier region delayed the expansion of forests. The forest transition was faster in patches that received greater legal protection. We also found a significant transformation in landscape structure due to reduced complexity from the reconnection of forest patches. The results of TEK showed a decrease and extinction of many traditional agricultural practices, mainly extensive livestock grazing and charcoal production from oak trees. TEK should be preserved due to its rapidly fading presence in the Mediterranean islands. Forest transition and the end of cultural fire practices have likely increased the number and magnitude of wildfires in the last decades. The study concludes that the forest transition on this Mediterranean island is a clear consequence of intertwined socio‐economic changes and the abandonment of traditional practices, with multifaceted ecological impacts. It highlights the value of integrating quantitative analysis based on historical data and local knowledge for understanding and managing landscape changes, emphasising the need for balanced approaches to address issues like wildfires and hydrological changes in these evolving socio‐ecological systems. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

The coniferous forests of the Western Cordillera are particularly affected by recent increases in wildfire extent and severity. After fire, conifer establishment and growth rates are influenced by a wide range of ecological drivers. Understanding the relative influence of ecological drivers on conifer recovery is crucial when modeling landscape dynamics. Past research has examined a wide variety of ecological drivers; however, syntheses of these drivers are rare. This systematic review focuses on forest recovery pathways, which have distinct variability in spatial and temporal measures of conifer establishment and growth. From studies examined, we extracted whether the study identified a recovery pathway and whether field or satellite spectral methods were used. Spectral methods were the most common method to determine the 84 extracted pathways. Among pathways identified, conifer self-replacement was the most common, but the second most common was state change, wherein the forest transitions in landcover type. We also investigated how recovery varied relative to different ecological drivers. Among the > 1000 drivers considered, pre-fire composition and post-fire moisture had consistent positive associations with all recovery metrics, while the association with other drivers varied by metric (stem density versus composition) and/or method (field versus spectral). Our review outlines key gaps for future research, including (1) the accuracy of spectral monitoring to capture structural growth trends, such as stem densities over time, and (2) how the effects of ecological drivers vary across scales, such as post-fire shrub cover at local versus landscape levels. Overall, fusing spectral and field data across spatiotemporal scales improves our understanding of post-wildfire recovery and dynamics, as well as our ability to anticipate the impacts of changing climate and wildfire conditions on recovering forests.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10021-025-01029-9.

Abstract. Worldwide, the upper forest line has climbed over the past decades, shaping mountain landscapes in response to global changes. In European mountains, this recent trend is a continuation of the forest transition initiated in the mid-19th century, when forest extent was minimal. This study aimed to (1) reconstruct the forest-line dynamics for the entire French Pyrenees from the mid-19th century until today and (2) investigate the influence of human and environmental drivers on the spatio-temporal variations in forest-line shift. To ascertain the forest-line elevational shift for the 114 municipalities studied, three digital land-use maps (dated 1851, 1993 and 2010) were employed. The forest-line shift velocity was calculated for the two periods delineated by these maps. We applied linear mixed-effect models to analyse the role of human and environmental drivers on the forest-line shift. The mean upward shift was 0.9 m yr−1 during the 1851–1993 period but was four-fold higher during the 1993–2010 period (3.5 m yr−1). During the first period, the forest line shifted upward seven times faster in the eastern Pyrenees, where the mountain pine, a pioneer species, formed the ecotone and pastoral abandonment occurred earlier, than in the western Pyrenees (1.3 vs. 0.2 m yr−1). Conversely, in the following period, the shift occurred three times as fast in the western Pyrenees, where abandonment became widespread, as in the eastern Pyrenees (5.6 vs. 2.1 m yr−1). In addition, during the second period, the closed forest line climbed twice as fast as the forest line (5.6 m yr−1), indicating a pronounced densification of the subalpine forest. Our original approach integrates a large spatial scale and temporal depth and sheds new light on the interrelationships between global warming, pastoral abandonment and the forest-line upward shift.

The Amazon is a key climate system component, hotspot of biodiversity and many other ecosystem functions. However, progressive rainforest degradation, driven by anthropogenic climate change and land-use change, is increasing the risk of a large-scale critical ecosystem transition. Previous studies highlight forest vulnerability to isolated or combined climate change and land-use pressures, but have not disentangled individual driver contributions. This crucial knowledge gap needs to be addressed for a holistic understanding of the risks that the rainforest is facing. Combining Earth System Model data with a robust detection and attribution framework, we assess forest decline under individual and combined pressures of climate change and land-use change. We assess abrupt shifts and nonlinearities in local and basin-wide forest decline to reveal signs of resilience loss and potentially imminent forest transitions. We identify land-use change as the dominant driver of past degradation, accounting for 80% of the historical (1950 to 2014) forest decline. Future projections reveal that up to 38% of the mid-20th century forest area could be lost by 2100, with 25% caused by continued deforestation and 13% caused by unmitigated global warming. Importantly, the risk of abrupt rather than gradual forest decline increases as global warming progresses, with a strong nonlinear trend beyond a threshold of 2.3°. These findings highlight a substantial risk of a large-scale transition, with potentially devastating consequences for the global climate system, regional water and carbon cycles, human livelihoods, and biodiversity. Limiting this risk requires rigorous forest protection and climate mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement.

An indicator framework for assessing forest ecosystem productivity resilience and transition risks under climate change

ABSTRACTThe CSR framework reflects the ecological strategies of competition (C), stress tolerance (S), and ruderal (R) that plants employ to adapt to disturbances. This framework provides a robust foundation for exploring community assembly and successional dynamics within degraded ecosystems such as karst. However, the influence of functional traits and species diversity on ecological strategic trade‐offs during vegetation succession remains unclear. The space‐for‐time substitution method was employed to examine the influence of functional traits and species diversity on ecological strategic trade‐offs during vegetation succession. Five successional stages were identified in the karst community: herb, herb‐shrub transition, shrubbery, shrub‐tree transition, and Tree forest. For each stage, five 100 m × 100 m plots were established, with each plot containing four 10 m × 10 m subplots, resulting in a total of 25 plots and 100 subplots. Plant leaf traits from 2503 individuals of 160 woody species were measured and quantified for CSR components at individual and community levels. The redundancy analysis (RDA), Mantel tests, and a random forest model were applied to explore associations in CSR strategies, diversity, and functional traits. Our results revealed a strategic trade‐off, with a shift from the dominance of the S strategy to increased contributions from C and R strategies at both individual and community levels as vegetation succession progressed. This transition was closely associated with woody species diversity and leaf macronutrient traits of carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. RDA and Mantel test results further indicated that Hill numbers (q = 0, q = 1), leaf water content, and leaf carbon content were key determinants of ecological strategy shifts. Additionally, the random forest model identified soil pH as the strongest predictor of the C strategy, whereas Hill number (q = 0) was the primary determinant of S and R strategies. In conclusion, the dominance of the S strategy in the early successional stages gradually shifted toward C and R strategies during succession progress. There were strategic trade‐offs of CSR associated with species diversity and leaf functional traits, embodied in S relative to C and R strategies.

Malaria remains a significant public health challenge in Ghana, accounting for a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality, especially among children under five and pregnant women. SDG 3 Good health and wellbeing aims to prevent needless suffering from preventable diseases, and premature death, and end epidemics by 2030. The study aims to examine the Seasonality of malaria Disease Infection in Ghana and Its implications on Health care Delivery. A scoping review on Seasonality of malaria Disease Infection in Ghana and Its implications on Health care Delivery. Emphasis on Impact of Rainfall and Temperature on Malaria Transmission, Rainy Season (April to October), Dry Season (November to March), and the Implications of Malaria Seasonality on Healthcare Delivery. Rainfall andtemperature play crucial roles in malaria transmission patterns across Ghana, influencing vector abundance, parasite development, and overall disease dynamics. Malaria morbidity patterns vary across the three ecological zones in Ghana, with the Guinea savannah zone having a single peak, while the Transitional Forest and Coastal savannah zones have two peaks in morbidity that follow the rainfall patterns in those regions. Malaria in Ghana exhibits strong seasonal patterns, with infection rates peaking during the rainy season due to favourable mosquito breeding conditions. Aligning malaria control measures with seasonal transmission patterns, Ghana can enhance its fight against malaria and strengthen its healthcare system to better respond to seasonal disease surges.

Vegetation dynamics in the Hulun Lake Basin (HLB), a vulnerable grassland–wetland–forest transition zone in Northeastern Inner Mongolia, North China, are sensitive to climate change, but traditional greenness metrics like the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) lack process-level insights. Using the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset (1982–2015) and meteorological data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of the NDVI and vegetation NDVI change rate (VNDVI)—a metric quantifying greening and browning speeds via NDVI temporal variation—employing linear regression and partial correlation analyses. The NDVI exhibited an overall significant upward trend of +0.0028 yr−1 (p < 0.05) across more than 70% of the basin, indicating a persistent greening tendency. The VNDVI revealed an accelerated spring greening rate of +0.8% yr−1 (p < 0.05) and a slowed autumn browning rate of −0.6% yr−1 (p < 0.05), reflecting an extended growing season. Spatial correlation analysis showed that the temperature dominated spring greening (r = 0.52), precipitation governed summer growth (r = 0.64), and solar radiation modulated autumn senescence (r = 0.38). Compared with the NDVI, the VNDVI was more sensitive to both climatic fluctuations and anthropogenic disturbances, highlighting its utility in capturing process-level vegetation dynamics. These findings provide quantitative insights into the mechanisms of vegetation change in the HLB and offer scientific support for ecological conservation in North China’s grassland–forest ecotone.

A new species of genus Passiflora is described following targeted fieldwork to the eastern Andes of Boyacá department in Colombia between June 2021 and December 2023. This new species shows taxonomic relation to the widely distributed P. alnifolia and P. chelidonea, for which it was invariably identified during previous herbarium collections. However, following new living material and detailed studies of specimens found both in situ and grown ex situ by the authorial team it was soon deduced that these maintain consistent differences warranting recognition as new species separate from the Passiflora alnifolia alliance. This paper introduces Passiflora mamapachae sp. nov., a new species of subgenus Decaloba supersect. Decaloba, found within a small regional distribution containing montane transitional forests of Boyacá. Its inherent morphology, ecology and distribution, including comments on its association with the other species from this taxonomic alliance are here discussed.

Beyond the forest transition hypothesis: Uncovering the drivers influencing natural, planted and plantation forest area development using regression-based machine learning approaches

Poleward shifts in tropical cyclone (TC) activity have introduced unprecedented disturbances to Northeast Asia's boreal and temperate-boreal ecotone forests. As TCs migrate northward, they increasingly influence previously unaffected regions, yet their impacts on forest structure and species composition remain poorly understood. This study examines TC Maysak (2020), the most intense cyclone recorded in the ecotone forests near the Chinese-Russian border, and its effects on tree vulnerability and canopy structure. Using high-resolution drone-based orthophotographs, we analyzed fallen tree dimensions across four affected sites within protected forests, identifying key differences between coniferous and broadleaf species. Tall emergent conifers, including Manchurian fir (Abies holophylla) and Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), were disproportionately susceptible to windthrow, with mean fallen heights exceeding the average canopy height by 4.88 ± 0.20 m (13.62 m maximally). In contrast, broadleaf species such as Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) exhibited minimal height variation relative to the canopy average. Our findings highlight TCs as emerging disturbance agents in Northeast Asia's temperate-boreal ecotone, preferentially removing emergent conifers, simplifying canopy structure, and promoting broadleaf dominance. As TC activity intensifies under global climate change, these disturbances may accelerate forest transitions in climatically sensitive ecotone forests.

Abstract Key message Anticipating establishment cuts in transitional high forests of beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) is a sustainable strategy from both ecological and economic perspectives. It could be scaled over large areas to promote structural heterogeneity while minimizing disturbances. Context Beech forests, traditionally managed as coppices for firewood, have experienced significant changes in management practices, particularly in Southern Europe. This shift was especially noticeable in the Southern and Eastern Alps, where vast areas of coppice forests were gradually transformed into high forests, as fuelwood demand declined. However, large-scale regeneration cuts at the end of the rotation period can result in economic losses and environmental concerns. Aims We assessed whether applying regeneration cuts at 70 years in transitional high forests can effectively accelerate the coppice-to-high-forest conversion process, relative to the conventional rotation period of 120–140 years. Methods This study examines the possibility to implement regeneration cuts before the common rotation period in temporary high forests by applying four distinct treatments: (1) control—thinning from below; (2) shelterwood system—establishment cut; (3) clear-cut; and (4) crop tree release. Results We found significant differences in basal area, biomass, leaf area index after tree removal, and harvesting costs/venues, with the shelterwood system being the most economically advantageous treatment. Ten years after the treatment execution, the shelterwood treatment exhibited prompt and widespread regeneration compared to other regeneration treatments, with the highest seedling abundance (12 ± 2 seedlings m −2 ) and height of the established saplings (93 ± 6 cm). Conclusion Our findings support the idea of implementing and gradually scaling regeneration cuts in time and space using the group shelterwood system. This approach can increase the structural heterogeneity of forest stands, maintain consistent timber production, and minimize disturbances to fauna and other ecosystem services.

This study aims to evaluate how the coordination function of the Ministry of Forestry has been strengthened following its separation from the Ministry of Environment. This separation seeks to ensure that the Ministry of Forestry does not cultivate sectoral egos that hinder forest conservation efforts in Indonesia, thereby promoting a modern bureaucracy, mutual oversight, and balanced management of forestry as a crucial and strategic government priority, especially in light of the ongoing transition of forests to non-forestry uses since the reform era. Weak coordination can significantly affect forest protection, which is inherently tied to legal and justice issues. The “Merah Putih” Cabinet is the most significant cabinet since the New Order Era through the reform era, likely resulting in numerous vertical and horizontal coordination challenges that could obstruct the effective management of various tasks, functions, and ministerial roles. This research employs a normative juridical method with legislative, conceptual, and historical perspectives. In conclusion, there is a need to evaluate internal and external strengthening among ministries. The structure of an independent forestry ministry is not adequately aligned with its responsibilities and functions in managing Indonesia’s forest resources and potential natural wealth as a prosperous nation. It is vital to assess the role of the coordinating minister overseeing the Ministry of Forestry, as placing forestry issues under the Coordinating Ministers for Food, Maritime Affairs, and Economic Affairs does not sufficiently address forestry challenges, which are more related to the laws governing the conservation of living organisms and their intact, integrated ecosystems.

Spatial patterns and ecological drivers of tropical moist forest transitions in the Kahuzi Biega National Park landscape eastern Democratic Republic of Congo

Irregular shelterwood treatment (IST) is a silvicultural method involving successive partial harvests to promote regeneration under forest canopy, particularly suited for maintaining irregular stand structures and, under certain conditions, conserving old-growth forest attributes. However, its effectiveness remains poorly documented. The Black-backed Woodpecker (Picoides arcticus Swainson), a species associated with old-growth forests and early decay dead wood, was selected as a focal species to study old-growth boreal forest managed with IST. We assessed habitat selection at landscape and home range scales in managed and unmanaged forests. At the home range scale, we evaluated foraging and nest site selection. Selection was determined using Manly’s selection ratios and generalized linear models with a logit link. At the landscape scale, the probability of establishing a home range increased with the proportion of IST, and individuals selected IST in proportion to its availability. At the home range scale, the probability of selecting a foraging site increased with snag diameter and woody debris volume, while only the diameter of snags predicted the probability of selecting a nest site. These attributes show no significant difference between IST and old-growth forest classes. Black-backed Woodpeckers use IST, transition and true old-growth forests in proportion to their availability. Our findings suggest recent IST can provide suitable breeding habitat for Black-backed Woodpecker, particularly when large-diameter snags are retained.

In this study, we present the results of an investigation of the long-term dynamics of natural silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) forests within the Belavezhskaya Pushcha National Park, Belarus. Six sample plots represent two primary forest associations: Tilio-Carpinetum and Querco roboris-Pinetum sylvestris. All stands originated from clear-cuttings in the early 20th century, and their age varies from 84 to 111 years as of 2023. The study spans from 1972 to 2023, encompassing the observation of various forest parameters, including diameter at breast height (DBH), tree height, canopy positioning, living ground cover, and the shrub layer, conducted multiple times (from 2 to 4). Successional patterns were observed to develop in three main directions, contingent upon the initial composition of the forest stand. In most cases, Betula pendula forests transition directly to spruce (Picea abies) forests or through the short (around 20 years) European aspen Populus tremula phase. The emergence of broadleaved forests in their place typically occurs no earlier than 200 years after logging, coinciding with the period of decline of Picea abies due to droughts and bark beetle attacks. Exceptions are observed in forest phytocenoses thriving on more fertile soils, where Quercus robur and/or Acer platanoides can swiftly replace mixed Populus tremula-Betula pendula stands after a century of development. Consequently, a considerable reduction in Betula pendula forests within Belavezhskaya Pushcha is anticipated in the forthcoming decades, gradually replaced by Picea abies and mixed broadleaved forests. These findings are significant for predicting the stand structure, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration potential of unmanaged forests. Keywords: long-term study; permanent plots; Betula pendula; DBH structure; regeneration; succession

The restoration of degraded ecosystems is crucial for addressing climate, biodiversity, and health challenges. The benefits of these restorations are amplified when implemented closer to urban populations, particularly for climate adaptation and human health. This study investigated the potential of urban areas for forest restoration, introducing a novel distinction between dense urban areas and urban boundaries (peripheral zones of urban centers), and comparing their dynamics to rural areas. We analyzed three decades of deforestation and regeneration dynamics in Brazil, quantifying and mapping land-use transitions to assess restoration potential. Results show that forest transition has already occurred across all the different types of areas considered. Urban boundaries exhibited highly dynamic land use and high regeneration rates despite limited policy support. The landscape dynamics and the presence of environmentally risky areas reveal that urban boundaries contain significant areas that hold potential for restoration, which could significantly contribute to achieving national or subnational restoration targets. Integrating restoration into urban boundary planning offers both ecological and social benefits to a substantial portion of the population. Our findings reveal a missed opportunity to extend restoration efforts beyond the traditionally targeted rural areas, positioning urban boundaries as key areas for innovative land-use strategies and restoration initiatives.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1038/s41598-025-19699-9.

New research quantifying the global impact of forest age transitions found that 140 million tons of aboveground carbon are lost per year because of old-growth forests being replaced by younger stands.