Foresight Project Research Articles

Assessing immediate learning impacts of large foresight processes

PurposeForesight often encompasses participative approaches for decision making. This paper aims to give a first overview of the authors’ research on immediate learning and networking in the context of foresight. The paper seeks to introduce a practical concept for an accompanying social research of a participatory foresight process for empirically identifying and mapping impacts; and to present empirical results from the study of a specific foresight process.Design/methodology/approachThe authors apply three approaches to analyze impacts. Accordingly data were gathered in moderated workshops for process analysis; structured telephone interviews for qualitative analysis; and surveys for social network analysis.FindingsThe accompanying social research produced direct insights on experiences and knowledge acquisition of participants in a large, complex foresight process, as well as a measurable increase of personal ties in this process. This research shows that the perception of the wider spectrum of actors in a social system, as well as their rationales and approaches, are one identifiable and crucial achievement of participative foresight processes.Research limitations/implicationsThis research focuses on immediate learning impacts, while additional impacts of mid‐ or longer‐term scales were not captured in this study. Accompanying social research (e.g. longitudinal studies) of broader scale would be beneficial to foresight research and process design.Originality/valueThe authors use a specific foresight process to analyze its immediate impacts. They introduce and demonstrate ways forward to use practical concepts for impact description, empirical data acquisition, and how it relates to underlying process design. The results are relevant for foresight project managers, process counselors and accompanying social research.

Foresight of Material Surface Engineering as a Tool Building a Knowledge-Based Economy

Throughout history, a substantial or often leap technological progress, was determined by the availability of new engineering materials, which usually stimulated the improvement in the quality of life. The development of engineering materials constitutes one of the most significant elements in the field of science and technology, and innovative policy in Poland and Europe as regards the knowledge-based economy (KBE). The enhancement of the product functional properties, required by the new strategies of engineering materials development, as well as materials processing technologies is frequently connected with appropriate formation of the engineering materials surface layer structure and properties. Functional properties of many products depend not only on the possibility of transferring the mechanical load across the whole element section or its physicochemical properties, but, most often, they depend mainly on the surface layer structure and properties. The application of foresight methodology in the assessment of the state and prospects regarding the development of technology related to the formation of the materials surface structure and properties provides the possibility to manage knowledge in this field. It can be achieved through a formalization of the explicit and tacit knowledge gathering and use in order to increase production competitiveness, effectiveness, and innovation, improve the quality of life and achieve sustainable development. The objectives accomplished in such a way contribute to the increase in intellectual capital by enhancing the effectiveness of using the existing knowledge, creating new knowledge, as well as increasing the level of understanding and disseminating knowledge. The implemented foresight project will result in identifying the priority innovative technologies and strategic research trends in the scope of surface structure and properties formation of engineering materials and biomaterials whose development in the country will be of key importance within next 20 years.

Neuropolitik und plastische Gehirne. Eine Fallstudie des adoleszenten Gehirns

Abstract Adolescent brain development has become an important target for governments to act upon, in the name of healthy individuals and economic prosperity. In the Foresight Project on Mental Capital and Wellbeing (MCW), initiated by the Government Office for Science, adolescent behaviour was identified as one of the key challenges for UK policy. The report draws on 'state of the art′ evidence from scientific experts, to recommend ways in which to 'capitalize′ on mental faculties to improve, boost, and make maximum use of the cognitive resources and mental health of individuals during the entire lifespan. Specifically, through a close analysis of the category of adolescence in cognitive neuroscience, we examine the perspective of personhood espoused by MCW. We show how the notion of 'plasticity′, which underpins the recommendations about how to “make the most” of adolescents′ developing brains and cognitive resources, creates vital linkages between neuroscience and neosocial policy.

Assessment of corporate foresight project results: case of a multinational company in Turkey

PurposeThe overall aim of the research is to provide an assessment of the level of the reported success of foresight project results of a multinational company in Turkey.Design/methodology/approachThe model of assessment is based on an integrated framework characterized by approaching foresight as a project and associating it by the redefined pitfalls in, and success factors of, corporate foresight projects in order to facilitate better conversion of their results into actual changes in corporations. A multinational company in Turkey (Siemens Turkey) is chosen for the exploratory case study. The exploratory assessment model was designed via the use of a survey questionnaire, a case study, and interviews of managers (who were involved in the corporate foresight project).FindingsResults of the individual assessment of corporate foresight project at the company were labeled as “successful”. There needs to be given an overall attention to the process‐oriented elements of the foresight project. Pitfalls in the foundation phase accumulated the highest problem area, suggesting that the total project would eventually suffer.Research limitations/implicationsOne of the limitations of the study is the use of a single case with an attempt to assess the pitfalls of the foresight projects. The exploratory study may include premature conclusions about the assessment of corporate foresight project results, yet a single case can imply generalizable insights. The authors believe this research suggests some potentially significant insights for foresight studies and their applications.Practical implicationsThe study may help to support the reliability of the foresight studies as they have been implemented and might bring a new methodological challenge on the quality and success of the corporate foresight project results.Social implicationsThe approach described the factors affecting the success of corporate foresight activities with respect to understanding the pitfalls of foresight projects. Taking reference to such a framework, foresight results may be better delivered and disseminated in corporations with concrete results and actual changes in organizations. The model of assessment may be used to analyze the level of the reported success of foresight project results in companies implementing foresight activities.Originality/valueAlthough foresight studies within businesses has become more important and widespread with its systematic and continuous/participatory approach, based on a variety of methods, it is still a partially explored area in terms of research with mainly descriptive studies.

Improving the productivity and sustainability of terrestrial and aquatic food production systems: future perspectives

SUMMARYTo meet the increasing global demand for food that is predicted over the coming decades it will be necessary to increase productivity and to do this in a way that is sustainable and efficient in its use of resources. Productivity is currently determined by the intrinsic genetic potential of the domestic plants and animals on which mankind is dependent as well as by components of the biophysical environment (temperature, water availability and quality, soil fertility, parasites, pathogens, weeds) from which terrestrial or aquatic food production is derived. Within certain limits, it is possible to manipulate plant and animal genotypes, the production environment, and the inevitable interaction between these factors, to relax constraints on productivity and potential output. Looking to the future, increased scientific understanding will undoubtedly permit this manipulation to be achieved more effectively, thus enabling the scale of production to be elevated predictably while reducing reliance on non-renewable inputs and limiting the use of more forest, grassland, wetland or coastal margin. The present paper introduces a collection of reviews that were commissioned as part of the UK's Government Office of Science Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures which reports early in 2011. The reviews explore opportunities for advances in science and technology to impact in coming decades on the sustainable productivity of terrestrial and aquatic food production systems. Collectively, they describe many of the approaches currently being considered to define, remove or relax the different genetic or environmental constraints limiting sustainable food production. These include: potential impacts of climate change on aquatic systems, the application of biotechnology, genetics and the development of systems to improve livestock, fish and crop production; approaches to the management of parasites and pathogens; weed control in crops; management of soil fertility; approaches to countering problems of water shortage; reducing post-harvest wastage; the role of advanced engineering and the potential for increasing food production in urban environments.

Post-evaluation of foresight studies: Turkish case

The main purpose of the national foresight works is to define a ‘continuous and progressive’ ‘national strategy’ by bringing the developments in the science and technology in an appropriate form to meet the social and economics needs of the country with cooperation among government, industry and society. This study evaluates the Vision 2023 Technology Foresight (TF) Project, the first national TF study in Turkey. The paper also analyses the strengths and the weaknesses to provide a guideline for future foresight projects.

Jeff Waage—building a coalition of disciplines for global health

Jeff Waage—building a coalition of disciplines for global health

BOOK REVIEW: "The Handbook of Technology Foresight: Concepts and Practice", Edited by Luke Georghiou, Jennifer Cassingena Harper, Michael Keenan, Ian Miles, Rafael Popper

Technology foresight is one of the important research areas in our field of managing innovation and technology. Georghiou et al. present a marvelous review of methods and applications for developing a technological vision. The book starts with an introduction to the foresight process and a review of available methodologies. The chapter focusing on the methodologies provides a very comprehensive list. A total of 33 different methodologies are described. The methodologies listed are also used for technology assessment and forecasting. For that reason, the book presents a value for many of us who have been studying technology evaluation of for those whose jobs are to evaluate and make decisions on the technological investments. The second part of the book includes foresight application from all around the world. The foresight studies reported in this part include those from United Kingdom, France, Germany, USA, Japan, Nordic countries, as well as smaller and developing countries. The chapters on these applications include the flow of the process used, methodologies employed and the topics discussed in each foresight project. This part would be very valuable for those planning to implement similar foresight projects in their countries and even in their organizations. The methods and the approached can easily be scaled up and down depending on the size of the organization. The third part of the book introduces largely the concepts of managing the foresight project. It starts with a chapter exploring how different projects were influenced by others. The other chapters introduce the planning aspects of such projects as well as how to evaluate the impact of these projects. The final chapter charts the future for the foresight science and applications. I would recommend this book wholeheartedly to all the researchers in the areas of management of technological investments.

Implications of the Foresight Report for Animal-Welfare Education and Research: What Are Veterinary Colleges Teaching Today about Animal Welfare?

This article provides a brief overview of the American Association of Veterinary Medical Colleges' Foresight Project final report, Envisioning the Future of Veterinary Medical Education. Points of concern and recommendations specifically regarding animal-welfare education that surfaced in the final report are discussed. Also included is a summary of how six veterinary colleges are presently addressing animal welfare in their education and research programs.

Priorities and funding for research in intellectual disabilities

Priorities and funding for research in intellectual disabilities

The impact of foresight studies on human healthcare in the post-genomic era

Under the conditions of increased demand for ways of addressing the future through strategic intelligence, foresight is progressively being embedded as a planning, consultation and decision making tool. A typology of foresight outcomes is developed in order to more effectively evaluate, and assess the impact of foresight on policy. A case study of a recent multi-national foresight project which examined human health care in the post-genomic era demonstrates the crucial role of foresight in providing a means to grasp the complexity of the potential impacts, for reconciling the many different perspectives involved, and for providing a sound basis for future policies. The impact of the project is assessed against the various possible outcomes.

A Japanese experience of a mission-oriented multi-methodology technology foresight process: an empirical trial of a new technology foresight process by integration of the Delphi method and scenario writing

This paper aims to develop and evaluate a new technology foresight methodology that can contribute to decision making in R&D strategies and policies, by focusing on the integration of the Delphi method and scenario writing. A case study of a technology foresight project conducted in Japan in 2007-2008 is studied. This is a project that tried a new form of missionoriented technology foresight by coupling two or more technology foresight methodologies. Then, three dilemmas related to the possibility of integrating the Delphi method and scenario writing are considered, along with the assumed action plans for the new technology foresight.

Futures Studies in Iran: Learning through trial and error

Futures Studies is a recent addition to the academic/intellectual/policy making life in Iran. Despite the fact that publication/launch dates of the first books/research projects on Futures Studies go back to few decades ago, it is only in the past few years that promotion of this discipline has gained momentum. Our aim in this paper is to present an overview of the development of Futures Studies in Iran since 1960s. We briefly explore the history of Futures Studies in Iran and explain why it has taken a technocratic line, as opposed to other possibilities (e.g. corporatist, environmentalists, citizen visioning (anticipatory democracy), etc.). In particular, we present an analysis of an ongoing and comprehensive foresight project whose objective is to provide Iranian top decision makers with a set of scenarios concerning future developments in a number of areas of science and technology until 2025. The main argument of the paper is that in response to the demands made by the policymakers, Iranian scholars, academics and technologists are trying to equip themselves with the latest techniques and know how for long-term planning and vision-building. However, due to various limitations the ride has not been an easy one. To overcome the obstacles, those who are at the forefront of developing indigenous versions of technological and theoretical aspects of Futures Studies have resorted to the method of trial and error and learning through doing. The paper critically examines the weaknesses and points of strength of this approach in the context of Iran.

Reflections on the Future of Veterinary Medical Education

Dr. Keith Prasse is a very distinguished leader in veterinary education. He started his career achieving his BS and DVM degrees from Iowa State University (ISU). He returned to ISU after a brief period in private practice in Illinois. His well-recognized career in veterinary pathology began with his MS and PhD degrees, followed by a five-year period of teaching at ISU. Dr. Prasse joined the faculty of the University of Georgia in 1972, and thus began a long-term partnership with Dr. Bob Duncan that is arguably the foundation of veterinary clinical pathology. The textbook they authored, Veterinary Laboratory Medicine: Clinical Pathology, or "Duncan and Prasse" as it is known, remains the standard today, with later participation from Dr. Ed Mahaffey and most recently Dr. Ken Latimer. Dr. Prasse has mentored numerous graduate students and received many awards over his 23-year career in teaching, including the Norden Distinguished Teaching award twice, once at ISU and once at Georgia. His leadership as President of the American College of Veterinary Pathologists was greatly acknowledged and appreciated. Dr. Prasse's administrative service at the University of Georgia spanned 14 years, first as Associate Dean for Public Service and Outreach and later as Dean for eight years, during which time he served as President of the Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges (AAVMC). The growth of the College of Veterinary Medicine under Dean Prasse's visionary leadership was extraordinary. He led through difficult economic and political times, yet the college and its community continued to prosper. His legacy at the University of Georgia is indelible and perpetual. His outstanding leadership of the college was recognized by the Georgia Veterinary Medical Association in 2004, when he was given the Georgia Veterinarian of the Year award. Since his retirement from Georgia, Dr. Prasse has contributed greatly to the profession and to the AAVMC by leading the Foresight project. Dr. Prasse honored those attending the 2009 AAVMC Symposium by giving the Recognition Lecture. As always, his address was inspirational, and the substance of it is included here. -Sheila W. Allen, Dean, University of Georgia College of Veterinary Medicine.

Stress and well‐being

AbstractGiven the world economic crisis over the last year, the fields of stress and well‐being have taken off as significant focal points of research attention in the psychological and medical sciences. For example, the UK government's Foresight project on Mental Capital and Wellbeing, which was launched in October 2008, explored how one's mental capital is enhanced or depleted throughout the life course through numerous international science reviews (Cooper, Field, Goswami, Jenkins, & Sahakian, 2009), and ultimately by evidence‐based policies and interventions. The European Union has similar projects on work and well‐being, as do many other developed and developing countries. We can see that the concerns about the health and well‐being of citizens throughout the world have led to increased and sustained research on identifying the sources of stress and lack of well‐being, as well as strategies to cope and deal with them.In this issue, we have papers exploring the sources of stress and their relationship to actual strain outcomes such as the link between ‘stress, self esteem and childhood acceptances’, ‘job stress, job satisfaction and stress‐related illness’ and ‘role conflicts, emotional exhaustion and health problems’. In addition, we have coping or intervention‐based work on, for example, ‘perceived stress, coping and night‐eating in college students’, ‘emotional disclosure as a coping strategy’ and the like.The bringing together of the ill health effects of stress, together with the positive psychology orientation of well‐being, is where the future lies in improving the emotional capital and well‐being of people in society. We would like to encourage more papers on the links between stress and well‐being and well‐being more generally, in order to capture what enhances as well as what depletes the mental capital of all of us. As Marcel Proust once wrote about extending our experience, ‘the real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes but in having new eyes’.

Changing perspectives on foresight and strategy: from foresight project management to the management of change in collective strategic elaboration processes

Reflexivity about foresight activities for strategic management is often seen as too low. In order to enhance the reflexive capacity of foresight practice, a reframed perspective can be proposed, by considering individual foresight projects within the broader conceptual framework of ‘future-oriented debates’, analogous to the models of ‘hybrid forum’ or of ‘strategic conversation’ developed respectively in the fields of sociology of science and strategy, consisting both of the succession of foresight operations on a common theme, and of the community of actors associated to their discussion. Foresight can then be considered as an intervention in such a future-oriented debate, aiming at incremental change, with the objective to improve its quality, for which some criteria can be proposed. The usefulness of this change of perspectives from project management to the management of change is illustrated by the example of the international debate on future water scarcity.

A comprehensive review of Turkish technology foresight project

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to review and analyse Vision 2023: the Turkish National Technology Foresight project. The paper aims to review the process of conducting the project, how it was implemented afterwards and how it compares to other national technology foresight projectsDesign/methodology/approachThrough a literature search, a process framework was conducted. The analysis was then conducted in four phases. First a process review, second a comparative review, third content review and finally a post project review. Expert interviews and site visits to Turkish State Planning Organization and TUBITAK (Scientific and Technical Research Council of Turkey) helped the authors to collect the data on Vision 2023 including how it was established, which areas were involved and what the recommendations were. Finally an expert panel was organized as part of a recent Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology. This included experts involved in the project as well as leading researchers who have been analyzing this project. This panel helped to validate the results.FindingsProcesses used in the Turkish project were similar to the other national projects, however lack of political ownership and change in leadership had been blocking the recommendations coming out of this project from being implemented. A second effort is required to modify the results of the first one and to establish political ownership and leadership. Several other national projects had multiple rounds before solid actions were taken. Industry needs to be a part of the effort as the panelists indicated that several key corporations were missing in the first project.Practical implicationsThe project provides comparative details on running national technology foresight projects. This should be useful for those responsible for planning similar projects.Original/valueThe paper reviews the project implementation process and what happened after the implementation providing feedback on what should have been done or should be done in similar foresight projects.

Operationalization of space/time perspectives of individuals—Theory and empirical results from Turkey

The overall aim of the research is to provide an evaluation of differences in time and space perspectives of individuals in Turkey in order to understand the different approaches, perspectives or priorities that they may bring to futures studies. An empirical study aimed to collect information about the varying differences in time and space perspectives among participant individuals (undergraduate and PhD students at Yeditepe University and managers at Siemens-Turkey) and any other possible factors affecting the participants’ choices. Two sets of statements are generated representing the time and space perspectives of participants using the modified constructs found in the literature such as “ Time Strata”, “ Space–Time Graph”, and “ Different Time Frames and Activities”. Our sample population of 185 individuals indicated a time horizon of 4.8 years and space horizon of 530 km. Majority of the sample population is observed to be concerned with issues that affect only their close environment over a short time period of “next week”, along with their larger geographical area as the “city”. A few of the sample population indicated to have a global perspective on time and space that can further reach into the future. Literature suggesting different individuals having different perspectives on time and space, depending on culture, past experience and the nature of the problems are instrumentalized in our study by relating it to the foresight tools and methodologies. Such varying perspectives may explain individuals/managers’ time and space horizon in which they think and act/execute. Based on the analysis of space/time preference of participant individuals, policy makers will benefit from incorporating the diversity of time and space dimensions into their strategic thought and national policy roadmaps. This exploratory study is comprised of the assessment of differing definitions and approaches to the future via individuals’ space and time perspectives. It aims to contribute to foresight methodologies and approaches, as well as bringing a significant impact on the quality and success of the national foresight project results.

Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting

The security of energy supply at national level is one of the most fundamental missions of every government. This task becomes especially vital in view of the current situation on global energy markets. The planning of technological development in the energy and fuel sectors is a relevant element of energy security strategies. This in turn leads to a more rational and efficient energy use in the future. Technology foresight, which emerged as a proven instrument of technology policy during the 1950s, becomes nowadays one of the essential tools for the creation of the future technological development worldwide. A project entitled: “The Scenarios of Technological Development of Fuel and Energy Sector for National Energy Security” was the first foresight project in the field of energy technologies and at the same time the first technology foresight activity in Poland. This project was being carried out in the period of 2006–2007 by a consortium of research and development institutes on the request of the Polish Ministry of Economy. The aim of the project was to indicate energy and fuel sector development directions in the time horizon up to 2030 and identify key energy technologies of strategic importance. As a result of the foresight activity, technology development scenarios in the energy and fuel sector in Poland as well as corresponding roadmaps for their implementation were formulated. The project results should be helpful in drafting national energy policies and they will indicate priority pathways of research and development (R&D) activities in the next years.The energy foresight project was based mainly on a Delphi method that is nowadays widely applied as a valuable foresight tool. This future-oriented intuitive method was engaged for the qualitative and quantitative assessment of probable developments in the future and for their time scale evaluation as well. In this article, the results of the conducted two-round Delphi survey were presented.

The social shaping approach to technology foresight

The social shaping of technology (SST) approach has been developed as a response and extension to the ideas of techno-economic rationality and linear conceptions of technology development and its consequences. The SST approach seems especially promising in areas of technology where visions are manifold, societal interests conflicting, and applications and markets are non-existing or still under construction. The emerging high technology areas and several areas of more sustainable development like organic food production and renewable energy are examples of this kind, where techno-economic networks are unstable or under construction and social and environmental potentials and risks difficult, if not impossible to assess. The paper explores the potential of a social shaping of technology approach to technology foresight within such technology areas and presents the methodological aspects herein: structure versus contingency, actor-network approach, laboratory programmes, techno-economic networks, actor worlds, development arenas. Experiences based on a recent Danish green technology foresight project concerned with environmental risks and opportunities related to nano-, bio- and ICT-technologies and foresight activities in relation to food are used as empirical references.