Terrorism, gold production, and economic development: Evidence from Colombia, Dem. Rep. Congo, Indonesia, Mali and Philippines

ABSTRACT Adam Smith's two distinct benefits from foreign trade were offered to dissuade others from adopting the mercantilist view that there is one principal gain from trade: the importation of money. Although Smith's two benefits received considerable attention in the literature, there was no consensus on what Smith meant by his two benefits. This paper offers a new interpretation of those benefits. Smith's first benefit is a micro benefit, with its impact on individuals. That benefit is the subjective value creation that results from voluntary international exchange. Both parties to the exchange experience an improvement in their living standard. Smith's second benefit is a macro benefit, impacting the economy at large. International trade extends markets and allows for production on a larger scale. A greater division of labor increases labor productivity and increases the national product. This increase in aggregate production is the second benefit from foreign trade. What makes this interpretation of Smith's two benefits attractive is the evidence that Adam Smith concurs with the interpretation.

The paper studies the relationship between foreign trade and economic growth in Bulgaria, Estonia and Lithuania for the period 2000-2023 in the framework of post-Keynesian theoretical models. Main tasks are to examine the impact of exports, imports and net exports on the dynamics of GDP, to highlight its peculiarities over time and across countries, and to characterise the main determinants of exports and imports for the three countries overall. The research methodology includes the use of descriptive analysis of the dynamics in GDP and in exports, imports, trade openness and net exports, the interdependencies between them and their links to changes in domestic demand, as well as the econometric analysis of the exports and imports functions using R Statistics panel data tools. The empirical results show that trade openness has been trending upwards, with the greatest growth impact coming from increased exports. The econometric estimation of the exports function with the first difference estimator reveals a positive impact of EU GDP and a negative impact of real effective exchange rate, while that of the imports function indicates a positive impact of own GDP and a negative impact of real effective exchange rate. The dynamics of economic activity are highly sensitive to the performance of major trading partners, but there is also a significant external crowding-out effect. However, the rise in imports was constrained by the non-typical impact of increasing relative prices, contributing to an upturn in net exports and higher economic growth.

Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractThis study investigates the nonlinear dynamics of the relationship between foreign trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Uzbekistan over the period 1997–2024. The analysis employs annual time-series data from the World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI) database, including three key variables: CO₂ emissions per capita (tonnes), exports of goods and services (current USD), and imports of goods and services (current USD). Using the Markov switching regression (MSR) model, the study identifies two distinct economic states: an export-oriented regime (Regime 1) characterized by high industrial production and export activity, and an import-driven regime (Regime 2) characterized by domestic consumption patterns and elevated import flows.The empirical results demonstrate that the export–emissions relationship is regime-dependent: exports have a statistically significant positive effect on CO₂ emissions only during export-oriented periods (β = 1.54 × 10–10, p < 0.01), while this relationship becomes insignificant during import-driven periods (β = 5.20 × 10–11, p = 0.378). In contrast, imports consistently reduce CO₂ emissions across both regimes (Regime 1: β = −1.05×10–10; Regime 2: β = −1.07 × 10–10, both p < 0.01), indicating a stable import-substitution effect that displaces domestic production-related emissions. The transition probability analysis reveals high persistence in both regimes (P₁₁ = 79.69%, P₂₂ = 81.22%), with structural shifts occurring approximately every five years (expected durations: 4.92 years for Regime 1 and 5.32 years for Regime 2). These findings confirm that the trade–emissions relationship in Uzbekistan is nonlinear and regime-dependent, necessitating the development of regime-sensitive environmental and trade policies.

Based on the analysis of the current state of the Russian agro-industrial complex, the measures of state support in relation to agriculture and agro-industrial products markets regulation have been summarized. A critical assessment of the main aspects of domestic agricultural production development in terms of its participation in international trade and an import substitution strategy implementation has been given. In particular, the analysis of the strategy of Russian’s turn to the East in the context of foreign trade in agricultural products has been carried out, the raw material nature of exports and strategies development for successful cooperation in the Eastern markets have been analyzed. The purpose of the study is to explore Russia’s possibilities and potential in import substitution tools implementation in the agro-industrial complex, considering the current challenges of global economic development. The key objectives of the study were to analyze the current state of Russian agro-industrial complex products on the world market, as well as the internal potential of the country’s agricultural complex. The elements of an optimal strategy for the import substitution mechanisms implementation in the country in the current circumstances have been proposed, as well as recommendations for implementing a successful strategy of turning Russia to the East, which will strengthen the country’s position in the global market. It has been proved that one of the conditions for the import substitution program implementation in the agricultural sector is the filling of the economy with domestic production goods, as well as creating programs aimed at the export-oriented production development.

This article is devoted to a comprehensive study of the mechanisms of inter-enterprise cooperation as a key determinant of value-added creation in Ukraine’s agri-food sector, as well as to a systematic assessment of the impact of cooperative processes on the profitability of economic entities and the enhancement of their export potential in wartime conditions and the prospects for post-war recovery. The relevance of the study is determined by the structural paradox of domestic agricultural exports: despite the preservation of significant foreign exchange earnings, the share of value-added products remains critically low compared to its potential, which leads to the chronic underutilization of the sector’s resource and technological potential. The intensification of this contradiction amid the volatility of global food markets creates an urgent need for scientifically grounded approaches to building effective cooperative systems. The methodological basis of the study consists of statistical and comparative analysis of foreign trade data for 2023–2026, structural analysis of the commodity composition of agricultural exports, and geo-economic analysis of the diversification of export markets. The theoretical propositions were verified using official customs and statistical reports. The study found that product groups with developed cooperative chains demonstrate leading positive dynamics: the growth in exports of vegetable oil was +27.5%, and for meat and meat products, +11.1%. A two-speed nature of the structural transformation of agricultural exports was identified, in which the processing-cooperative track is gradually displacing the raw material track. Geographical diversification indicates growing competitiveness of processed products in the markets of Turkey, China, and the EU. The practical value of the study lies in establishing an analytical foundation for developing state mechanisms to stimulate cooperative processes and the structural transformation of the agricultural value chain in the context of Ukraine’s European integration strategy. Prospects for further research are linked to the development of quantitative models for assessing the effect of cooperation on the level of value added and the study of institutional mechanisms for supporting cooperative structures.

On December 4, 2025, the Trump administration published a new National Security Strategy, fully integrating trade policy into the country's national security system. The Strategy views economic prosperity as the foundation of military strength and the nation's civilizational confidence through rebuilding the industrial base, eliminating trade deficits, and leveraging access to the American market as a tool of geopolitical influence. The transition from globalism and free trade to hard sovereignty and flexible realism is formally enshrined. Cultivating American industrial strength is declared the highest priority of national economic policy. The goal is to achieve global leadership in the global economy through the dominance of American technologies and standards, particularly in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and quantum computing. In fact, the entire US national security system is fundamentally integrated with AI technologies. Absolute priority is given to global technological dominance as a national security imperative, based not on traditional political ideology, but motivated above all by what works for the United States based on the principle of 'America First. Victory in the AI race is declared as the beginning of a new golden age of human prosperity, economic competitiveness, and national security for the American people. The goal is to integrate AI into all sectors of the national economy and public administration. AI is regarded as the most important strategic resource of the emerging new industrial and information revolution, capable of decisively transforming the global economy and changing the balance of power in the world. AI has been transformed into a priority instrument of foreign trade policy in the context of the US national security system.

This paper examines the multidimensional data connecting globalisation and sustainable development in the countries of ECOWAS over the period 2000-2021. It looks at the approach and role of foreign direct investment (FDI), remittances, digital globalisation, Trade Openness, and regional integration to development. Through panel data econometric methods- Fixed Effects, Random Effects, and dynamic System-GMM models- the researchers take endogeneity, persistence, and country heterogeneity into consideration. The results demonstrate that ECOWAS sustainability development is path-dependent, with historic performance having the maximum performance prediction power. Globalisation, remittances, and GDP per capita positively correlate with the static model. However, when perseverance is considered, the effects dwindle, showing that institutions and policy consistency are important. This paper emphasises the necessity of ECOWAS states to embrace intra- and inter-national measures to improve domestic capacities and regional integration and to develop long-term coordinated plans to ensure that global integration leads to sustainable and inclusive development. The results offer theoretical support to institutional and development theories and offer practical advice to policymakers in the region.

Objective: to evaluate the private, social and environmental profitability and competitiveness of the production systems of native (Creole) and improved (modified) grain maize in rainfed and irrigated regimes in San José de Gracia, Aguascalientes. Design/ Methodology/ Approach: for data collection, participant observation techniques, surveys and official sources from Mexico’s National Foreign Trade Information System (SNICE), and the Tax Revenue Administration Service (SAT) were applied. A specific questionnaire was designed for grain maize producers in San José de Gracia to record inputs and production costs. Environmental (reduction of agrochemicals) and private assessments were performed with the Policy Analysis Matrix (MAP) methodology. The social analysis was based on the SAGARPA–FAO methodology for intermediate inputs, considering variables such as tariffs, taxes, inputs, subsidies, insurance-freight costs, transport costs, fuel prices and exchange rate. Results: a 64.9% of grain maize production was profitable, competitive, and efficient. The presence of agricultural policies and market distortions improved profitability by 37.43% and competitiveness by 12.08% of grain maize production. On the other hand, these indicators were reduced by 20% and 5.3% when implementing environmental strategies. Findings/ Conclusions: at market and economic prices, the improved grain under irrigation presented the highest profitability and the Irrigated Creole system, the greatest competitiveness. In the environmental analysis, the Creole grain maize production system under irrigation showed competitiveness and profitability. However, these indicators were below the values assessed at private costs.

The Russian Federation is one of the largest exporters in the world. At the same time, the sale of goods within the framework of exports is carried out with a constant increase, which undoubtedly has a positive effect on the growth of the economy as a whole, and is directly related to the increase in entrepreneurial activity in this direction. However, it should be borne in mind that when building foreign trade relations, there are risks directly related to the implementation of operations for the sale of goods within the framework of foreign economic activity. This article proposes a methodology for managing contractual risks in building contractual relationships with the buyer when selling agricultural products in the customs procedure of export. The purpose of developing this methodology is to reduce the risks of obtaining a negative result from the transaction if the buyer refuses the goods in a situation where the goods are sent to the buyer or the recipient. This methodology has absolute scientific and practical significance, as it can be a tool for managing contractual risks at enterprises engaged in foreign trade activities and at the same time serve as a basis for the development of new methods, methods and concepts for risk management in general. To develop the methodology, methods of analysis, synthesis, generalization and systematization of information based on regulatory legal acts and practical experience were used. When using the methodology, it is proposed to use specific risk assessment technologies in relation to contractual risks, and to modify one of them using a new categorical riskiness apparatus with the introduction of a risk tolerance coefficient based on planned net profit. When assessing the applicability of certain risk assessment technologies, preference was given to scenario analysis and the “As Low as Reasonably Possible” (ALARP) model, and as a result, the “5-ti methodology for contract risk management” was developed. The development and implementation of this methodology makes it possible to simplify the process of managing contractual risks and combines the main aspects that must be taken into account when building contractual relationships within the framework of foreign economic activity in the sale of agricultural products.

The increasing significance of economic diplomacy in international relations has initiated several countries to prudently employ diplomatic channels to achieve their economic goals. Despite a framework of diplomatic engagement, the economic exchanges between these two nations are characterized by a profound and persistent imbalance, reflecting a neo-colonial pattern of trade that undermines the very principles of sustainable and mutually beneficial development. The urgency for targeted study is amplified by the changing global landscape, including the African Continental Free Trade Area, which offers Kenya new platforms for value-added exports. Despite a friendly bilateral environment, the absence of a formalized economic diplomacy framework results in an imbalanced trade structure and missed opportunities in key sectors. Therefore, this study sought to investigate the economic diplomacy frameworks between Kenya and Ireland. This study was anchored on power theory. The study adopted a descriptive research design. The research was conducted within Nairobi County. The study targeted business traders, exporters, the Irish ambassador to Kenya, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade representatives, Irish business networks, trade and policy analysts, trade directors, Customs and Trade officers-KRA, the Kenya Investment Authority representative, and the Kenya Private Sector Alliance [KIPPRA] representative, yielding a total of 247 sampled respondents. Purposive sampling was employed to select the sampled respondents. The primary data were collected using structured questionnaires and key informant interviews. These were complemented by extensive secondary data, including trade reports and academic publications. Quantitative data was analyzed through SPSS version 26, while qualitative data was analyzed verbatim thematically. Quantitative data was presented in the form of tables and figures, while qualitative data was recorded thematically via verbatim. The study findings revealed the existence of a formal institutional framework supporting bilateral relations, which included embassies, trade missions, and bilateral cooperation agreements. The study concludes that economic diplomacy has been achieved through agriculture, especially horticulture; technology; infrastructure; education; and joint trade missions; however, with challenges such as political instability, cultural differences, and lack of strong partnerships and agreements. The study recommended that both governments establish a joint economic commission and formal trade agreements to structure engagement and unlock potential in agriculture, technology, and renewable energy sectors.

Economic growth across the post-Soviet space in 2025 remained uneven and fragmented, largely due to the slowdown of the Russian economy and ongoing geopolitical turbulence. The past year consolidated the key trajectories of the region’s economic development. Foreign trade (parallel imports included), cross-border remittances, government financing, and logistics development remain as the main sources of economic growth in the region. The decline in their impact is due to adaptation to new conditions and the stabilization of trade flows. Stabilization in external sector indicates that the transformation of trade and logistics flows has reached completion, and the effects of their reorientation have largely run their course. Tight monetary policy constrained domestic demand and expanded import substitution strategies within the Russian segment. Geopolitical shifts in the South Caucasus reshaped the geography of foreign trade, reflecting a reorientation toward new markets and fluctuations in global energy prices. Meanwhile, deepening regional integration and a stronger collective identity in Central Asia generated new opportunities for its evolution as Eurasia’s trade and logistics hub, alongside intensified competition among external actors seeking dominance through investment and trade policy engagement. Risk factors for the region’s further development include a possible increase in sanctions pressure, continued high-tech imports restrictions, exchange rate volatility, and domestic political instability in several countries. At the same time, economic cooperation formats represented by the EAEU and the CIS and the adaptability of the region’s states economies contribute to moderately positive development trends in the medium term.

In the post-financial crisis era, global trade protectionism rises, and the cost of domestic production factors increases. The traditional operation and management mode of "OEM + agency" of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in China can no longer adapt to the new market environment. These enterprises urgently need to transform and upgrade. This study takes Hangzhou Hexun Industrial Co., Ltd. as the research sample. It uses literature research method, PEST macro environment analysis method, SWOT matrix analysis method and case analysis method. The study sorts out four core problems of the traditional operation and management mode of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in China. It analyzes the macro environment and industrial characteristics of China's foreign trade industry in the new trade environment. Combined with the internal resources and capabilities of Hangzhou Hexun, the study puts forward an innovative operation and management model for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises. This model takes "customer demand as the core and six dimensions as support". In addition, the study discusses the implementation path, applicable conditions and industry universality of the model. It provides theoretical reference and practical path for small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises in China to break through development bottlenecks and improve core competitiveness.

This article focuses on studying intersectoral economic relationships in the agro-industrial complex (AIC), whose relevance has increased amid foreign trade and political risks. It calls for further improvement in quantitative assessment methods for these relationships, taking into account key cash flow indicators: profitability and tax burden. An algorithm has been developed for the economic evaluation of intersectoral interactions among business entities, based on a net indicator calculated separately for businesses categorized by type of economic activity and integrated into agri-food supply chains. Regions were grouped and ranked by business entities to determine the impact of business scale on financial results. The findings are supported by empirical calculations of the net indicator, derived from the ratio of sales profitability to tax burden (net cash inflows and outflows), enabling diagnostics of entrepreneurial activity in small, medium, and large agricultural, food processing,

The article is devoted to the history of trade and economic re-lations of the Russian Empire with Spain and Portugal in the Russian North during the XVIII and XIX centuries. Prior to the founding of St. Petersburg, Arkhangelsk remained the leading center of Russia's foreign trade relations with Europe-an countries. The article analyzes the specifics of Russia's trade relations with Spain and Portugal, the range of export and import goods, prices, the number of merchant ships ar-riving in Arkhangelsk, etc. Special attention is paid to the sale of Spanish and Portuguese salt in the Russian North, on which the processing and marketing of products from the fisheries of the Pomors, Sami, Nenets, Karelians, Komi, etc. largely depended. Attention is focused on the role of Russian diplomats in promoting domestic trade interests at the Madrid and Lisbon courts. The importance of Arkhangelsk as a lead-ing center of Russian-Spanish and Russian-Portuguese trade and economic relations in the Russian North is revealed. The importance of the Russian North in the fishing activities of Spanish fishermen and whalers is noted. The importance of the sale of so-called colonial goods in the Russian North, de-livered to Spain and Portugal from their possessions in Latin America, Africa and Asia, is emphasized. In addition, the role of Spanish, Portuguese wines, aniseed vodka and other alco-holic products in the sale of goods in the Russian North has been determined. An estimate of the total exports of Portu-guese and Spanish wines to Russia based on foreign sources is presented. The article is based on rare archival documents from central and regional archives, pre-revolutionary publica-tions in Russian, English, Spanish, French and Portuguese.

Dynamic Interactions Between Monetary Policy, Real Sector Confidence, Capacity Utilization, and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Türkiye

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state and dynamics of Ukraine's export and import operations in the context of structural and geo-economic transformations caused by martial law, disruption of logistics chains, changes in foreign markets, and intensification of European integration processes. The aim of the study is to identify key trends, structural imbalances, and risks in Ukraine's foreign trade based on a combination of traditional macroeconomic indicators and derivative analytical indicators. The methodological framework is based on the use of economic and statistical analysis, dynamic and structural analysis, a comparative approach, and graphical visualization. The empirical basis of the study consists of statistical data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine and open state registers covering the period 2016–2025. The article determines that in 2016–2021, Ukraine's foreign trade was characterized by relative balance, while since 2022, there has been a significant deterioration in the trade balance against the backdrop of a reduction in export potential and an increase in import dependence of critical commodity groups. The use of a system of derivative indicators for assessing the effectiveness of foreign economic activity is proposed, in particular the export/import ratio per customs declaration, the foreign economic activity balance index, and the import coverage ratio by exports. It has been proven that negative values of the balance index and a steady decline in the ratio of exports to imports reflect the deepening structural imbalance of Ukraine's foreign trade in the post-war period. At the same time, the dynamics of indicators per customs declaration indicate an increase in the size of consignments, concentration of flows, and adaptation of foreign economic entities to new logistical and regulatory conditions. Separately, a positive trend in the institutional efficiency of customs administration has been established, manifested in a reduction in the average time for processing customs declarations, primarily in the import mode. The practical significance of the results lies in the possibility of using the proposed indicators as an analytical basis for the formation of customs and trade policy of the state and enterprises in the context of minimizing macroeconomic risks and increasing competitiveness.

In the context of globalization, the customs system of Azerbaijan ensures control over foreign trade, collection of taxes and duties, digitalization of processes, and risk management. The State Customs Committee coordinates the work of the central office, regional administrations, and border crossing points, ensuring the transparency and legality of trade operations. Statistics for 2023–2024 show high trade turnover, a positive trade balance, and growth in customs revenues, confirming the strategic role of the system for the country's economic stability and sustainable development. Keywords: Globalization, customs control, foreign trade, digitalization, risk management.

The article comprehensively analyzes the role of customs control in ensuring national economic security and substantiates its importance in the formation of state budget revenues, protection of national production, management of strategic resources, combating illegal economic activity and compliance with international standards on the basis of statistical indicators; Data for 2022–2024, including official indicators announced by the State Customs Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan, show that the customs system plays a strategic role in strengthening economic stability and increasing the transparency of foreign trade. Keywords: customs control, economic security, state budget revenues, strategic resources, foreign trade.

The impact of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration expansion on enterprises’ export product quality: An analysis based on geographic regression discontinuity design