Foreign Policy Situation Research Articles

The Papers of James Madison: Presidential Series, Volume 4, 1811-1812

The Papers of James Madison: Presidential Series, Volume 4,1811-1812. Edited by J. C. A. Stagg et al. (University Press of Virginia, 1999. Pp. 720. $65.00.) With the present volume, this magnificent series inches eight more months into James Madison's first term. If Madison's biographers had not told us that his presidency was a difficult, draining time for him from the outset, earlier volumes of the Presidential Series could leave one with quite a different impression. Madison seems comfortable in the office, almost enjoying it. Hindsight shows that the foreign policy situation was deteriorating from the beginning, but at the time, neither Madison nor anyone else knew that the adjustments to the failed embargo of the previous administration were going nowhere. There was still room to try policies, hope for success, and spend time on the other interesting things that came across a president's desk. Although Madison does not seem to have had much vanity in him, he must have derived at least some satisfaction from finally sitting behind that desk after years of being only the most important supporting player in a number of different casts. He was at the center now, and no one could fairly say he had not earned the honor: no one in America, with the possible exceptions of Jefferson and Adams, could equal Madison's experience in public affairs, and those two had already had their turns. So that side of the job seemed unlikely to overwhelm him, and there was plenty of time to indulge his many interests: to discuss sheep with Richard Peters and John Jackson, progress on the capitol city with architect Benjamin Latrobe, books with Thomas Cooper, and the Floridas (how to get them) with Jefferson. With this volume, however, we are in what would prove to be the last months before the outbreak of war, and the tone changes. Though Madison would try, when the moment came, to create a picture of a patient, longsuffering administration forced to war when all other options had been rejected by Britain, the sense one gets from almost all the correspondence in this volume is that the nation was moving inexorably toward war, and Madison knew it. Other matters occupy him, too, certainly: right on the eve of his final presentation of matters to Congress, there were many who pulled at his time and concentration: Latrobe (regularly, usually on bills to be paid, but this time on rust in the White House roof), George Logan (pleading for peace, of course), Jonathan Dayton (on, of all things, the latter's hemorrhoids), and Elizabeth Reed Cooprew of Portsmouth (on Departed Spirits calling to her of their being murdered at the John Druman tavern-perhaps you think I am Derang'd, she said, to which Madison quite sensibly noted, Query if insane [339-40]-what aides let through to their bosses in those days is remarkable). And, of course, there was the never-ending run of letters of introduction from, or for, job-seekers, a flow increased by the military situation. But the coming of war is the paramount concern in this volume. It must be said that a careful reading of the correspondence only complicates efforts to understand how Madison perceived events. …

Germany Today: Continuity and Change

Events of recent months have changed the face of German politics. Or, to be more precise, they have shown that Germany has changed in recent years. Seen from the year 1999, these transformations have been twofold: on one hand, important fundamental conditions of German politics have changed over the past ten years; on the other hand, since last fall, a new government established new priorities. In a first step, this paper will give a short description of the internal and external state of German affairs at the end of Helmut Kohl's long reign. It will then analyse the current domestic and foreign policy situation in Germany, its new political directions, the reforms and setbacks of the new coalition of Social Democrats and Greens. In concluding, the more thoroughgoing aspects of change in Germany since unification will briefly be discussed.

Cultural Expectations of One's Own and Other Nations' Foreign Policy Action Templates

One useful conceptualization of culture is that of a preestablished set of behavioral competencies, which in turn form behavioral dispositions. According to this variant of culture theory, decision‐makers faced with new situations will rely on established behavioral competencies in forming an initial policy response. This assumption can also be applied at the nation‐state level, where established behavioral predispositions may lessen uncertainty and stress in ambiguous yet salient foreign policy situations. Likewise, observers in one nation‐state may be able to identify such behavioral dispositions in other nation‐states, lending greater transparency and predictability to international interactions. Do such culturally based action templates exist? Are they recognizable even to ordinary citizens? Citizens in Russia, Japan, and the United States were asked to posit the most likely and least likely behavioral responses to a variety of foreign policy situations by their own nation and by the other two nations in the sample. The results indicate that recognition of such templates takes place, and that recognition of one nation's template content by citizens of the other nations typically matches recognition of template content by the nation's own citizens. The research also shows that such action templates can be eroded and become unrecognizable over time, both to insiders and to outsiders.

The Role of Analogical Reasoning in Novel Foreign-Policy Situations

A number of scholars have argued that historical analogizing plays an important role in foreign-policy decision making; the extent of that importance, however, remains largely a mystery to us. This article proposes that analogical reasoning is probably even more commonplace than previously thought, since it may play a crucial role even in ‘novel foreign policy situations’ (scenarios which appear largely unprecedented to the decision makers confronting them).One notable example of a novel foreign-policy situation is provided by the Iranian hostage crisis. Examining the Carter administration's decision-making processes during that crisis, the article concludes that even though many saw the hostage crisis as a unique occurrence, the participants drew upon a wide range of historical analogies in order to make sense of what was occuring and to propose suggested ‘solutions’ to the crisis.

Pakistan's Search for a Foreign Policy After the Invasion of Afghanistan

Abstract : This essay seeks to reconstruct Pakistan governmental perceptions of its foreign policy situation following the Soviet invasion. Necessarily speculative, it considers Pakistan's bill of constraints and limited options as Islamabad sought to define a response to the Soviet invasion that best served its interests. Its actions have often seemed to American observers half-hearted. But it can be argued that the government's policy of limited liability made the most of a much worsened security situation, which at the outset its neighbors did little to improve.

Thailand: Meeting the Challenges of the 1980s

As Thailand entered the new decade of the 1980s, the kingdom faced pressures of unprecedented ferocity. Consolidation of Vietnamese military might all along Thailand's borders with Kampuchea as well as Laos macie the nation's exposed front-line position evident to the whole world, not to say to all Thais.' Conflict with militant communist power was now as immediate as it was intense. At the same time, Thailand's own political institutions continued to flounder towards resolution of their traditional dilem mas: adequate legitimacy to meet the needs of the modern era; the propeT blend of authoritarianism and popular participation; a modicum of economic and social justice; and the desired combination of military-dominated stability with civilian direction of a troubled economy and a rapidly changing society. Early in 1980, the latest in the country's frequent shifts in topmost military-political leadership took place, as General Kriangsak Chomanand ? Prime Minister since October 1977 ? resigned, to be replaced by General Prem Tinsulanonda. The host of international pressures set the stage for this action, though the principal catalytic events ? as is typical in Thailand ? were internal: a serious drought, a growing crisis over energy availability and costs, and problems associated with erratic industrial expansion and growing income disparities. The foreign policy situation ? especially the conflict between Vietnam and China ? did produce an unexpected bonus for the Bangkok regime: sudden weakening of the Communist Party of Thailand (CPT), now torn asunder by the tensions between its two competing communist mentors. The crisis within the CPT reduced for the moment the intensity of immediate internal pressures on the military-led coalition government of General Prem. Essentially, however, this simply provided a few months or maybe a few more years of additional time during which the traditional forms of governance in Thailand have an opportunity to devise responses to the deep fissures in this rapidly changing society, reforms adequate to stem the revolutionary tide in the years ahead. Whether the Prem Government (or any feasible successor to it) will be willing ? let alone capable ? to carry out such a series of profound social, economic, institutional, and political reforms remains to be seen. During the period of open politics in Thailand from October 1973 to October 1976, Thailand's leaders and people attempted to enact many of the very reforms that are still required. This attempt was ultimately unsuccessful, primarily because of the power of reactionary groups dedicated to preserving their own power and interests. Polarization and violence ensued, at a pace never witnessed before in this land; and the generals once again seized control of the political process.1 The challenge coming from Indochina in the latter years of the

Party Strategies and Foreign Policy: The Case of Finland, I955-63

The author tries to explain why the foreign policy debate in the party press in Finland, 1955-63, actually took the form it did. The scheme of analysis developed by Gunnar Sjöblom for party strategies in a multiparty system is used as a theoretical frame of reference and is applied to a material consisting of editorials in 19 party papers in connection with debates on 9 foreign policy situations. As to the value systems of parties, the author makes a distinction between three foreign policy approaches: (1) lim itative, (2) adaptive, and (3) augmentative interpretations. A quantitative analysis suggests that the parties put forward their interpretations in accordance with a pattern which corresponds to the ideological rankings of parties. This is followed by an analysis of how the parties in their propaganda have tried to advance the vote maxima tion goal and the maximation of parliamentary influence goal, and by discussions of how the parties have solved conflicts between strategic goals and programme goals in different types of situations.

Questions for Americans

From what perspective should we who are concerned with religion and international affairs view the current foreign policy situation? Two factors of overriding importance stand out. First is the movement away from a bi-polar world and toward the pluralization of the world; second is the power shift, doubtless limited in character, but no less real, favoring the USSR at the expense of the U. S. A. (Henry A. Kissinger flatly asserts that “the missile gap in the period 1961-65 is now unavoidable”; and it is recognized by all competent observers that the USSR is leading the U. S. A. two to one in scientists under age thirty-five.)