Flow Duration Research Articles

Peak Flow Event Durations in the Mississippi River Basin and Implications for Temporal Sampling of Rivers

AbstractThe impact of an episodic river flood is intimately linked to its duration. Yet it is still unclear how often should a river be observed to accurately determine the occurrence and duration of extreme events. Here we assess flow statistics along with peak flow event detection and duration as a function of the discharge sampling period for large tributaries of the Mississippi basin using hourly gages over 2010–2022. Median event durations above high quantiles spatially vary from around 2 days upstream to 30 days downstream. Discharge mean, standard deviation, and quantiles can all be estimated within 2.5% error for sampling periods up to 8 days. A minimum temporal sampling 4× (2×) finer than peak flow event median duration is required to detect 95 ± 3% (85 ± 5%) of events and to estimate their duration within 90 ± 5% (75 ± 10%) median accuracy. Our findings have direct implications for future satellite missions concerned with capturing flood events.

Distribution‐Based Model Evaluation and Diagnostics: Elicitability, Propriety, and Scoring Rules for Hydrograph Functionals

AbstractDistribution forecasts P over future quantities or events are routinely made in hydrology but usually traded for a (likelihood‐weighted) mean or median prediction to accommodate error measures or scoring functions such as the mean absolute error or mean squared error. Case in point is the so‐called KG efficiency (KGE) of Gupta et al. (2009, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.08.003) and improvements thereof (Lamontagne et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr027101), which have rapidly gained popularity among hydrologists as alternative scoring functions to the commonly used Nash and Sutcliffe (1970, https://doi.org/10.1016/0022‐1694(70)90255‐6) efficiency, but are equally exclusive in how they quantify model performance using only single‐valued output of the quantities of interest. This point‐valued mapping necessarily implies a loss of information about model performance. This paper advocates the use of probabilistic watershed model training, evaluation and diagnostics. Distribution evaluation opens a mature literature on scoring rules whose strong statistical underpinning provides, as we will demonstrate, the theory, context and guidelines necessary for the development of robust information‐theoretically principled metrics for watershed signatures. These so‐called hydrograph functionals are scalar‐valued mappings of major behavioral watershed functions embodied in a strictly proper scoring rule. We discuss past developments that led to the current state‐of‐the‐art of distribution evaluation in hydrology and review scoring rules for dichotomous and categorical events, quantiles (intervals) and density forecasts. We are particularly concerned with elicitable functionals and scoring rule propriety, discuss the decomposition of scoring rules into a sharpness, reliability and entropy term and present diagnostically appealing strictly proper divergence scores of hydrograph functionals for flood frequency analysis, flow duration and recession curves. The usefulness and power of distribution‐based model evaluation and diagnostics by means of scoring rules is demonstrated on simple illustrative problems and discharge distributions simulated with watershed models using random sampling and Bayesian model averaging. The presented theory (a) enables a more complete evaluation of distribution forecasts, (b) offers a statistically principled means for watershed model training, evaluation, diagnostics and selection using hydrograph functionals and/or extreme events and (c) provides a universal framework for metric development of watershed signatures, promoting metric standardization and reproducibility.

Data Assimilation Informed Model Structure Improvement (DAISI) for Robust Prediction Under Climate Change: Application to 201 Catchments in Southeastern Australia

AbstractThis paper presents a method to analyze and improve the set of equations constituting a rainfall‐runoff model structure based on a combination of a data assimilation algorithm and polynomial updates to the state equations. The method, which we have called “Data Assimilation Informed model Structure Improvement” (DAISI) is generic, modular, and demonstrated with an application to the GR2M model and 201 catchments in South‐East Australia. Our results show that the updated model generated with DAISI generally performed better for all metrics considered included Kling‐Gupta Efficiency, NSE on log transform flow and flow duration curve bias. In addition, the elasticity of modeled runoff to rainfall is higher in the updated model, which suggests that the structural changes could have a significant impact on climate change simulations. Finally, the DAISI diagnostic identified a reduced number of update configurations in the GR2M structure with distinct regional patterns in three sub‐regions of the modeling domain (Western Victoria, central region, and Northern New South Wales). These configurations correspond to specific polynomials of the state variables that could be used to improve equations in a revised model. Several potential improvements of DAISI are proposed including the use of additional observed variables such as actual evapotranspiration to better constrain internal model fluxes.

Comparative Study of Low Flow Frequency Analysis Using Bivariate Copula Model at Soyanggang Dam and Chungju Dam

A univariate analysis that relies solely on precipitation data in low flow frequency analysis is a technique to express meteorological drought, so it is limited to analyzing the characteristics of hydrological drought related to available water resources. In addition, if the data for the model calibration are insufficient, the uncertainty of a single variable limits the construction of a reliable model. To improve this problem, a frequency analysis was performed by constructing a bivariate copula model as a multivariate model with a high correlation between variables targeting reservoir inflows. The methodology utilizes the theory of runs to identify low flow events, establishing a threshold based on the mandatory regional water supply plan, and determining the low flow duration and cumulative water deficit. The Gumbel copula function, effective in capturing correlations between hydrological variables, was applied to derive a joint bivariate probability distribution, facilitating the calculation of combined low flow event return periods. This study compared low flow frequencies at Soyanggang dam (’74–’22) and Chungju dam (’86–‘22), which are in the same Han River basin but have different capacities and water demands, using a bivariate copula model. The top four extreme low flow events for the two adjacent dam basins did not occur in the same year and, in the years of the extreme low flow events at one of the two dam basins, there was an insignificant magnitude at the remaining dam basin. This result is noteworthy because it shows that the possibility of extreme low flow events appearing simultaneously in both watersheds is not as high as expected. The operational efficiency can be improved by setting the coordinated operation rules of the two reservoirs using the copula dependency structure.

Undervalued dry riverbeds: A key factor in equating intermittent river CO2 emissions to perennial rivers

Intermittent rivers in semiarid and arid regions, constituting over half of the world's rivers, alternate the carbon cycle interactions among the biosphere, hydrosphere, and atmosphere. Inadequate quantification of flow duration and river water surface area, along with overlooked CO2 emissions from dry riverbeds, result in notable inaccuracies in global carbon cycle assessments. High-resolution remote sensing images combined with intensive field measurements and hydrological modelling were used to estimate and extract the flow duration, river water surface area and dry riverbed area of Huangfuchuan, an intermittent river watershed that acts as a major tributary of the Yellow River in semiarid Northwest China. CO2 emission rates and partial pressures in water and air across the watershed were in-situ measured. In 2018, the flow duration of Huangfuchuan increased from less than 5 days in the first-order tributary to 150 days in the sixth-order mainstream. River water surface area estimated by remote sensing extraction plus the hydrodynamic model simulation varied from 3.9 to 88.6 km2 under 5 %–95 % discharge frequencies. CO2 emissions from the water-air interface and dry riverbed in 2018 were estimated at 582.3 × 103 and 355.2 × 103 ton, respectively. The estimated total annual emission (937.5 × 103 ton) aligns closely with the range of emissions (67.3 × 103–1377.2 × 103 ton) calculated for the water-air interface alone, derived using DEM river length and hydraulic geometry method. This similarity can be attributed to the overestimation of flow duration and flow velocity, as well as the over- or under-estimation of river water surface area and slope. The new method proposed in this study has large potential to be applied in estimating CO2 emissions from data-scarce intermittent rivers located in mountainous regions and provides a standardized solution in the estimation of CO2 emission. Results of this research reveal the spatiotemporal distribution of CO2 emissions along an intermittent river system and highlight the substantial role of dry riverbed in carbon cycle.

Improving estimates of water resources availability over North Tropical South America: comparison of two satellite precipitation merging schemes

Low-density precipitation measurements impair the ability of hydrological models to estimate surface water resources accurately. Remote sensing techniques and climate models can help to improve the estimation of the space-time rainfall variability. However, they alone are not good enough to be used in surface models built to support water management. In this research, we test the improvement of rainfall field estimation by using hydrological modelling based on the premise that a higher hydrological performance generally implies that precipitation is more consistent with streamflow observations and evaporation estimates in the basin. The SWAT model was forced with two satellite and rain gauge blending techniques and with the traditional IDW deterministic interpolation method from stations. The three simulated streamflows were compared separately against observed records. We do not only focus the comparison on one hydrological performance metric but also conduct a deeper evaluation using several hydrological signatures and statistics. We included the bias, the temporal correlation, the relation of general variability, and an analysis of the Flow Duration Curves (we found that low and medium segments were estimated correctly, whereas the high segments were underestimated). We conclude that either combination technique has its advantages over the other and that both outperform the performance achieved by the IDW in most of the defined criteria, with an overall 10% improvement and with individual streamflow gauge performance enhancement up to 50%.

Elevational control of isotopic composition and application in understanding hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment, Sierra Nevada, California, USA

Abstract. Mountain snowpack has been declining and more precipitation has fallen as rainfall than snowfall, particularly in the western US. Isotopic composition in stream water, springs, groundwater, and precipitation was examined to understand the impact of declining snowpack on hydrologic processes in the mid Merced River catchment (1873 km2), Sierra Nevada, California. Mean isotopic values in small tributaries (catchment area < 122 km2), rock glacier outflows, and groundwater from 2005 to 2008 were strongly correlated with mean catchment elevation (R2= 0.96 for δ2H, n= 16, p < 0.001), with an average isotopic lapse rate of −1.9 ‰ per 100 m for δ2H and −0.22 ‰ per 100 m for δ18O in meteoric water. The lapse rate did not change much over the seasons and was not strongly affected by isotopic fractionation. A catchment-characteristic isotopic value, representing the catchment arithmetic mean isotopic signature in meteoric water, was thus established for each sub-catchment based on the lapse rate to elucidate hydrometeorologic and hydrologic processes such as the duration and the magnitude of snowmelt events and elevational water sources of streamflow and groundwater for ungauged catchments. Compared to Tenaya Creek without water falls, the flow and flow duration of Yosemite Creek appear to be much more sensitive to seasonal temperature increases during the baseflow period due to a strong evaporation effect caused by waterfalls, suggesting a possible prolonged dry-up period of Yosemite Falls in the future. Groundwater in Yosemite Valley (∼ 900–1200 m) was recharged primarily from the upper snow–rain transition zone (2000–2500 m), suggesting its strong vulnerability to shifts in the snow–rain ratio. The information gained from this study helps advance our understanding of hydrologic responses to climate change in snowmelt-fed river systems.

Evaluation of spring flows using recession flow analysis techniques

ABSTRACT This study delves into the analysis of recession characteristics of spring base flow, focusing on the Hill campus spring (elevation of approximately 2,150 m) and Fakua spring (elevation of approximately 1,850 m) in the Tehri Garhwal district of Uttarakhand, India. Spanning from January 1999 to December 2004, discharge data from G.B. Pant University of Agriculture and Technology's Hill campus are employed. The research employs an automated, objective-based method to generate master recession curves (MRCs) and categorize them into early, intermittent, and late recession segments. Statistical parameters and low-flow indices from flow duration curves (FDCs) are utilized for flow assessment, while base flow indices (BFIs) are analyzed using the Web-based Hydrograph Analysis Tool (WHAT). The findings highlight the importance of water storage strategies during the rainy season for the sustainable utilization of spring water. The study suggests that the techniques applied are equally applicable for analyzing river flow recession characteristics, emphasizing the broader implications for integrated water resources planning and management in mountainous regions.

Multi-decadal floodplain classification and trend analysis in the Upper Columbia River valley, British Columbia

Abstract. Floodplain wetland ecosystems experience significant seasonal water fluctuation over the year, resulting in a dynamic hydroperiod, with a range of vegetation community responses. This paper assesses trends and changes in land cover and hydroclimatological variables, including air temperature, river discharge, and water level in the Upper Columbia River Wetlands (UCRW), British Columbia, Canada. A land cover classification time series from 1984 to 2022 was generated from the Landsat image archive using a random forest algorithm. Peak river flow timing, duration, and anomalies were examined to evaluate temporal coincidence with observed land cover trends. The land cover classifier used to segment changes in wetland area and open water performed well (kappa of 0.82). Over the last 4 decades, observed river discharge and air temperature have increased, precipitation has decreased, the timing of peak flow is earlier, and the flow duration has been reduced. The frequency of both high-discharge events and dry years have increased, indicating a shift towards more extreme floodplain flow behavior. These hydrometeorological changes are associated with a shift in the timing of snowmelt, from April to mid-May, and with seasonal changes in the vegetative communities over the 39-year period. Thus, woody shrubs (+6 % to +12 %) have expanded as they gradually replaced marsh and wet-meadow land covers with a reduction in open-water area. This suggests that increasing temperatures have already impacted the regional hydrology, wetland hydroperiod, and floodplain land cover in the Upper Columbia River valley. Overall, there is substantial variation in seasonal and annual land cover, reflecting the dynamic nature of floodplain wetlands, but the results show that the wetlands are drying out with increasing areas of woody/shrub habitat and loss of aquatic habitat. The results suggest that floodplain wetlands, particularly marsh and open-water habitats, are vulnerable to climatic and hydrological changes that could further reduce their areal extent in the future.

#1062 Effect of intradialytic resistance exercise on patient survival: a multicenter non-randomized cohort study

Abstract Background and Aims Intradialytic exercise significantly benefits the physical function of patients undergoing hemodialysis. Prior research into its impact on patient longevity has been constrained by small participant numbers and the lack of a control group. This study investigates the influence of exercise therapy during hemodialysis on patient lifespan in a broad multicenter cohort. Method This forward-looking, multicenter, non-randomized clinical investigation included 17 outpatient clinics from the Kaikoukai Medical Group, recruited between April and December 2018. Participants were voluntarily enlisted in an exercise regimen during their dialysis sessions and segregated into exercising and non-exercising cohorts. The trial was not blinded. The intradialytic regimen comprised stretching and four types of resistance exercises utilizing elastic tubes, conducted thrice weekly. Baseline data encompassing age, gender, stature, baseline weight, duration of hemodialysis treatment, and concurrent diabetic conditions were collected. Additional data regarding hemodialysis, including Kt/V ratio, hemodialysis blood flow rate (QB), dialysate volume (QD), and duration of dialysis, were recorded. Laboratory parameters such as albumin (Alb), calcium (Ca), potassium (K), hemoglobin (Hb), C-reactive protein (CRP), and creatinine (Cr) levels were extracted from medical records. Patient outcomes were monitored until either the occurrence of death or the study's culmination in December 2021. In statistical analyses, missing values were addressed using multiple imputation techniques, and baseline characteristics between groups were compared using an unpaired t-test. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was employed to examine the relationship between the exercise intervention and survival, adjusting for multiple confounding variables. Three models were constructed for analysis: Model 1 incorporated basic patient data, Model 2 included hemodialysis parameters, and Model 3 involved laboratory data. The study was approved by the Ethical Committee of Nagoya Kyoritsu Hospital. Results The study encompassed 2006 subjects (average age 70.1±0.3 years), with 512 (25.5%) in the exercise group and 1494 (74.5%) in the control group. Initial comparisons indicated that the exercise group had significantly lower average height (160.9±0.3 vs. 159.7±0.4 cm, p=0.03), baseline weight (57.2±0.3 vs. 55.9±0.5 kg, p=0.04), Kt/V ratio (1.59±0 vs. 1.64±0, p=0.01), and QD (494±0.9 vs. 486.8±1.9 ml, p<0.01). Over the median observation period of 25 months, 338 (16.9%) patients, comprising 58 (11.3%) from the exercise group and 280 (18.7%) from the control group, succumbed. Survival analysis revealed a significant association between exercise intervention and mortality reduction, adjusted for confounders in Model 1 (HR 0.6, 95%CI 0.4-0.9, p=0.01), Model 2 (HR 0.55, 95%CI 0.37-0.8, p=0.02), and Model 3 (HR 0.57, 95%CI 0.38-0.87, p=0.01). Conclusion This research is the first to demonstrate a significant association between intradialytic resistance training and improved survival in hemodialysis patients within a multicenter, non-randomized cohort. This relationship remained significant after adjusting for multiple confounding factors, suggesting that incorporating resistance training into standard hemodialysis care could markedly enhance patient survival outcomes.

Influence of Heat Treatment on Microstructure Evolution and Yield Surfaces of Ni/PU Hybrid Foams

Metal foams are characterized by low weight, high resource efficiency, high relative stiffness, and exceptional energy absorption capacity under compressive load. Nickel/polyurethane (Ni/PU) hybrid foams consist of an open‐cell polyurethane foam coated with a layer of nickel produced by electrochemical deposition. The coating of the PU foams takes place in a flow reactor, in which the electrolyte is pumped through the foam at a defined flow velocity. The macromechanical properties of foam‐like structures depend on the structure of the skeleton, the inherent material properties and, in the case of Ni/PU hybrid foams, the properties of the electrochemically generated nickel layer. To influence their mechanical properties, the Ni/PU hybrid foams are subjected to heat treatment. In the given experimental setup, the parameters flow velocity, temperature, and duration of the heat treatment are each investigated at two different levels. Thus, interactions between the initial microstructure and the type of heat treatment are evaluated by means of X‐ray diffraction (XRD) and electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) measurements. Interactions between initial mechanical properties and heat treatment are investigated by uniaxial compression tests and superimposed compression‐torsion tests. The knowledge gained is used to control the macromechanical properties of the hybrid foam.

Assessing Right Ventricle Over Time in Patients on Veno-Venous Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation: Insights From Serial Echocardiography.

Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) is often used in acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) with refractory hypoxemia. There is limited literature highlighting the development of right ventricular (RV) failure while on ECMO. We conducted a retrospective multicenter observational study including 70 patients who were placed on veno-venous (VV)-ECMO for respiratory failure at Mayo Clinic, Jacksonville, and Mayo Clinic, Rochester, between January 2018 and June 2022 and had at least two post-ECMO transthoracic echoes. The primary outcomes were the incidence and progression of RV dysfunction and dilatation. The secondary outcome was in-patient mortality. Among 70 patients in our cohort, 60.6% had a normal RV function at the time of ECMO placement, whereas only 42% had a normal RV function at the second post-ECMO echo. On multinomial regression, a moderate decrease in RV function was associated with ECMO flow (odds ratio [OR] = 2.32, p = 0.001) and ECMO duration (OR = 1.01, p = 0.01). A moderately dilated RV size was also associated with ECMO flow (OR = 2.62, p < 0.001) and ECMO duration (OR = 1.02, p = 0.02). An increasing degree of RV dysfunction was associated with worse outcomes. Our study showed that the increasing duration and flow of VV-ECMO correlated with progressive RV dilatation and dysfunction, which were associated with poor survival.

Polydopamine-assisted immobilization of metallic nanoparticles confined regionally in bamboo microchannels as continuous-flow microreactors for enhanced catalysis

In contrast to conventional plant-based microreactors where the nanocatalyst is anchored on the inner walls of microchannel structures, this study presents a bamboo-based flow microreactor in which the metallic nanocatalyst is immobilized within polydopamine (PDA) region-modified bamboo microchannels. This novel design facilitates a large surface area for nanocatalyst loading, enhances mass transfer, and reduces nanocatalyst leaching. Firstly, the hierarchical PDA architecture was fabricated on the wall surface of required bamboo microchannels through an ammoniation-induced self-assembly process to serve as a nanocatalyst support layer. The thickness of PDA architectures was modulated by adjusting the flow duration. Secondly, the metallic nanoparticles (NPs), including Pd, Au, and Ag, were effectively immobilized within the hierarchical PDA architectures as highly efficient catalysts using a flow-assisted method with minimal chemical usage and low catalyst loading (Pd content: 0.011 wt%). The catalytic performances of the proposed Pd-PDA/bamboo microreactor were evaluated for the continuous hydrogenation of nitroaromatics under flow conditions, encompassing variations in Pd content, nitroaromatic concentration, and liquid flow rate. The optimized Pd-PDA/bamboo microreactor exhibited high average conversion (>97 %) of nitroaromatics during 20 days of continuous operation without any noticeable deactivation or loss in activity due to its excellent stability resulting from firm immobilization of active metallic NPs within hierarchical PDA architectures. Additionally, this bamboo microreactor demonstrated potential applicability in environmental pollution treatment through azo dye hydrogenation.

Natural fracture density controls productivity in shale reservoirs

Abstract Shale reservoirs host ubiquitous multi-scale natural fractures created by factors such as pore pressure build-up after petroleum generation and palaeo crustal stress changes during tectonic episodes. Natural fractures are among postulated drivers of stimulated shale well productivity and related variability. Quantifying the aforementioned role and optimizing recovery call for litho-structural assessments. In this interdisciplinary study, natural fracture density (fractures per unit length) for North and South American shales (Marcellus, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Barnett, Fayetteville and Vaca Muerta) was estimated from published observations of outcrops, cores and borehole images. Associated production for the latest horizontal wells, drilled in the most productive locations (sweet spots), was normalized by lateral length and reservoir thickness. It was found to correlate positively with the density of small-scale natural fractures. Durations of transient linear flow, diagnosed from production data, were play-specific, negatively correlated with small-scale natural fracture density and led to realization of picodarcy matrix permeability. Conversely, large-scale (tectonic) fractures limit stimulation efficiency and pose environmental/induced seismicity risks. Therefore, stimulation-driven reactivation of small-scale fractures facilitates drainage and enhances well productivity. Relatedly, reservoir flow regimes and production decline curves are intricately controlled by interplay of natural fracture density and matrix permeability. Variability of these parameters calls for acreage-tailored stimulations.

Clinical efficacy of complex antioxidant therapy for pelvic varicose veins in women: A prospective non-randomized controlled study

Aim. To evaluate the clinical efficacy of complex antioxidant therapy (CAT) in the treatment of patients with pelvic varicose veins (PVV). Materials and methods. Patients with PVV (n=150) were divided into groups 1 and 2 of 75 subjects; the groups were comparable. Treatment in both groups included standard therapy with one of the venotropic agents (60 days). Patients of group 1 additionally received CAT for 30 days (1 course), in total 3 courses with 2-month intervals. Results. When assessing the parameters of the lipoperoxidation system (antioxidant protection) in group 1 during CAT combined with standard venotropic therapy, there was a statistically significant decrease in the levels of lipid hydroperoxides (p0.0001), diene conjugates (p=0.001), malonic dialdehyde (p0.0001), an increase in the levels of catalase (p0.0001), superoxide dismutase (p0.0001), glutathione peroxidase (p0.0001), glutathione reductase (p0.0001), glutathione-S-transferase (p=0.002) and the reduced glutathione content (p=0.032) compared to levels before treatment. The above group showed a decrease in the diameter of the pelvic varicose veins: internal iliac (p0.001), ovarian (p0.0001) and arcuate (p0.001), an increase in their blood flow velocity (p=0.003, 0.041, and 0.040, respectively), a decrease in the duration of retrograde flow to 0.3 cm. There was a decrease in pelvic pain (p0.0001), dysmenorrhea (p=0.024), dyspareunia (p=0.037), the frequency of irregular menstruation (p=0.031), an improvement in quality of life (p=0.047), pregnancy rate (p=0.013), the number of live births (p=0.004), and the duration of remission (p=0.047). Conclusion. The use of a combination of antioxidants superoxide dismutase 250 mg 2 times a day, acetyl-glutathione at 100 mg 2 times a day, and astaxanthin 400 mg/day for 30 days in 3 courses with 2-month intervals combined with venotropic therapy can significantly improve the treatment outcomes of patients with PVV.

A copula-based approach to instream ecological flow determination considering inter- and intra-annual runoff variability

ABSTRACT Instream ecological flow (IEF) provides a flow reference value for maintaining the stability of river ecosystems and enriching biodiversity. Existing methods for determining the IEF often consider only one of the intra-annual runoff distribution characteristics or the inter-annual runoff distribution characteristics. In this study, a copula-based ecological runoff determination method is proposed to consider both annual and monthly runoff magnitudes. The marginal distribution functions of annual and monthly runoff are first determined using the maximum likelihood method. Then the copula function is used to construct the joint distribution function of annual and monthly runoff series. Using the flow duration curve method, the IEF under different annual and monthly runoff exceedance probabilities is calculated. The probability values are combined with the initial IEF values to determine the final IEF process. A case study is conducted using real-world data from the Tongtian River in China. The results show that the total annual basic ecological water demands of the Tongtian River in abundant, flat, and dry water years are 138, 102 and 72.2 billion m3. The proposed method effectively avoids the disturbance of extreme runoff.

Frequency curves of high and low flows in intermittent river basins for hydrological analysis and hydraulic design

Upper and lower percentiles of Flow Duration Curves (FDCs) of daily streamflow data were investigated to develop frequency curves. Upper percentiles with exceedance probability of 1, 5 and 10% (Q1, Q5, Q10) were used for high flows, and lower percentiles with non-exceedance probability of 10, 5 and 1% (Q90, Q95, Q99) for low flows. Median value (Q50) was covered to represent the average conditions of streamflow. A mixed frequency analysis based on the total probability theorem taking zero values into account was applied for the lower percentiles of FDC. Case studies were performed for three intermittent Streamflow Gauging Stations (SGSs) from Kucuk Menderes River Basin in western Turkey. An overall assessment of results shows that the best-fit probability distribution function does not change from one SGS to another considerably for low flows while each SGS has its own probability distribution function for high flows. Upper and lower percentiles, and median value were calculated at various return periods by using the identified probability distribution functions. The calculated values were plotted in the form of frequency curves of high flow percentiles and low flow percentiles. The frequency curves have a practically significant potential use in hydrological analysis, water resources management and hydraulic design under high and low flow conditions. They are yet open to further development for regionalization and their applicability can be extended to ungauged sites in river basins.

Assessment of Water Resources Potential of Ogun River for Irrigation Purposes at Middle Ogun Irrigation Project

The Middle Ogun Irrigation Project (MOIP) was conceived by the Federal Government of Nigeria to boost agricultural food production in the southwestern part of the country using modern irrigation facilities. However, water supply from the Ikere Gorge dam has been intermittent, particularly at the intake weir of this project, despite the enormous water resources on the dam. Therefore, this project assessed the water resources potential at the Odo Ogun intake weir guage station of the Middle Ogun Irrigation Project and evaluated the seasonal irrigation requirements on irrigation fields. The Flow Duration Curve (FDC) was derived at the gauge site for streamflow discharge from four quartiles and percentage reliability of Q95%, Q75%, Q50% and Q25%, which gave 32.40, 55.01, 60.00 and 90.00 m3/s, respectively. Hydrological modelling of the catchment was carried out using the MapWindow Soil and Water Assessment Tool (MWSWAT) for ten delineated sub-basins on the catchment and the average annual yield from the catchment was 10,094.00 mm/year. The net seasonal irrigation requirement of crops grown was evaluated using CROPWAT 8.0 and gave 428.46 mm per planting season.

Insights to the water balance of a Boreal watershed using a SWAT model

The hydrological characteristics of a watershed play a crucial role in shaping ecosystems within the Boreal zone and have a significant impact on regional environments. Knowing these characteristics, such as the distinctive topography, vegetation, soil composition, and climatic conditions in the Canadian Boreal ecozone, is essential for implementing sustainable water management. This study focuses on assessing the hydrological dynamics of the Upper Humber River Watershed (UHRW) in western Newfoundland, Canada, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The UHRW includes sub-basins and hydrological response units (HRUs), with diverse land uses, soil types, and slope characteristics. Key parameters influencing streamflow simulation were identified through sensitivity analysis, including the runoff curve number, the effective hydraulic conductivity, the temperature lapse rate, the soil evaporation compensation factor, and the available water capacity of the soil layer. The SWAT model, using data from the Reidville hydrometric station, shows favorable performance metrics, with R2 values of 0.79 and 0.83 during the calibration and evaluation periods, respectively. The model effectively captures seasonal and monthly flow patterns, displaying right-skewed distributions and seasonal variations. The analyzed hydrological parameters, such as precipitation, evaporation, transpiration, surface runoff, and groundwater flow, reveal their significant contributions to the water balance. The flow duration curve analysis indicates the model’s capability to estimate peak and low flows, with slight under-prediction during the recession phase. Seasonal analysis further supports the model’s performance, with positive Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values ranging from 0.65 to 0.91. The study concludes that the SWAT model is suitable for simulating the hydrological processes in the studied watershed providing valuable insights for sustainable water resource management and decision-making in the UHRW. The results can be useful for other Boreal ecozone watersheds.

Climate and land use changes impacts on streamflow in the Brazilian Cerrado basin

This study evaluated the effects of climate change and land use (LULC) on the discharge regime of a watershed located in the Brazilian Cerrado. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated in three different periods: period 1 (LULC of 1990 with meteorological data from 1980 to 1995), period 2 (LULC of 2000 with meteorological data from 1996 to 2005), and period 3 (LULC of 2015 with meteorological data from 2006 to 2015). The statistical coefficients of performance NSE, PBIAS and R² and the flow duration curves for each period of analysis showed that the model is suitable for use in simulations on a monthly scale in the hydrographic basin of the Correntina River. The results show that variations in land use and land cover affect surface flow more intensely than changes in climate, and that the reduction in discharge over the 36 years of the study is due to changes in land use and land cover, in particular the use of water for agriculture. The results of this study show that it is necessary to consider the implications of climate change and land use for decision making, providing information to guide the future management of water resources in a region of intense agricultural activity and with conflicts over water use.