Flat Tax Reform Research Articles

Does Labor Supply Respond to a Flat Tax? Evidence from the Russian Tax Reform

We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001 to identify the effect of taxes on labor supply of males and females. We apply the weighted difference-in-difference regression approach and instrumental variables to the labor supply function estimated on individual panel data. The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statistically significant increase in male hours of work but had no effect on that of females. However, we find a positive response to tax changes at both tails of the female hour distribution. We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both males and females. Despite significant variation in individual responses, the aggregate labor supply elasticities are trivial and suggest that reform-induced changes in labor supply were an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform.

A TAX REFORM PROPOSAL FOR TURKEY: FLAT TAX SYSTEM

Using a dynamic life cycle simulation model, this study aims to find macroeconomic effects of a flat tax reform for Turkish economy. Flat tax system removes all current tax rates and taxes all sources of income at the same rate by expensing the invest- ments in the year they are made. Although this is a simple tax system, the model projects significant increase in output as well as an increase in welfare by shifting from the graduated tax system to the flat tax.

Universal basic income with flat tax reform in France

This article evaluates the effects of a revenue-neutral tax reform introducing a universal basic income scheme coupled with a flat income tax which replaces the existing minimum income benefit, several other conditional benefits and the existing progressive income taxation. To this aim we use a Micro–Macro simulation model for the French economy. Interestingly, our results show that the reform induces not only a significant reduction in income inequalities and poverty, but also a slightly positive effect at the macroeconomic level, implying that the equity-efficiency trade-off would not be produced.

Investment expensing and progressivity in flat-tax reforms

In this article we quantify the aggregate, distributional and welfare consequences of investment expensing and progressivity in Hall and Rabushka type of flat-tax reforms of the US economy. To do so we use a heterogeneous households model featuring both life cycle and dynastic elements as well as nonlinear wage dynamics. Our findings suggest that moving toward a progressive consumption-based flat-tax scheme could achieve the goals of raising government income, stimulating the economy, and providing a safety net for the households that have been hit the hardest by the recession. In particular, we find that investment expensing brings about sizeable output gains and a nontrivial increase in after-tax income inequality. However, it results in aggregate welfare gains in steady state because the large deduction in the labor income tax acts as a boon for the income poor, because the larger capital stock implies that workers earn higher wages, and because investment expensing allows households to abandon poverty faster. We also find that the progressivity of the reforms matters for welfare: economies with more progressive flat-tax schemes are better for the very poor and are ultimately preferred by a Benthamite social planner as they allow households to achieve better consumption smoothing and a better allocation of their work effort across time and states.

Envelope wages, hidden production and labor productivity

Abstract We evaluate the relative importance of aggregate labor productivity versus income taxes and social contributions for tax compliance in an economy with a large degree of informality. Empirical evidence points out that tax evasion in Europe happens through partially concealing wages and profits in formally registered enterprises. To this end, we build a model in which employer-employee pairs of heterogeneous productive capacities make joint decisions on the degree of tax evasion. The quantitative model is used to analyze the case of Bulgaria which has the largest informal economy in Europe and underwent a number of important tax reforms over the period 2000–2014, including the introduction of a flat income tax in 2008. The estimation strategy relies on matching the empirical series for the size of the informal economy and other aggregate outcomes for 2000–2014. Our counterfactual experiments show that the most important factor for the changing size of the informal economy is labor productivity, which accounts for more than 75% of the change. The variation in corporate income tax accounts for the rest. We find that the 2008 flat tax reform did not play any visible role in coping with informality.

‘Flattening’ tax evasion?

AbstractWe analyze the response of tax evasion to the introduction of a flat tax in several transition economies. Using a novel estimator based on household level data, we show that in most of the countries studied there was no discernible effect on the measured size of unreported income following a flat tax reform. This may imply that decreases in marginal tax rates may frequently have been accompanied by a parallel deterioration in attitudes towards public services and the government in general. The countries that show a response to the flat tax reform appear to be those where satisfaction with government services increased.

Assessing the economic and social impact of tax and benefit reforms: A general-equilibrium microsimulation approach applied to Hungary

We present a general-equilibrium behavioural microsimulation model designed to assess long-run macroeconomic, fiscal and distributional consequences of tax and benefit reforms in a small open economy. We apply the model to reforms adopted in Hungary between 2008 and 2013, a period characterised by intense reform activity in the wake of the financial crisis. Innovations of the model include the treatment of labour supply responses of individuals, affecting both participation (extensive margin) and work intensity (intensive margin), and the incorporation of general-equilibrium effects by a parsimonious macroeconomic model. Our results suggest that Hungary's flat tax reform may have boosted output by improving work incentives of high earners (along the intensive margin), but reduced work incentives and employment levels of low earners. We find that policy measures introduced since 2008 substantially increase income inequality. Moreover, the contribution of changes after 2010 is about four times that of the changes before 2010.

THE IMPACT OF FLAT TAX RATES ON FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT

Main aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of corporate income tax rates on foreign direct investment (FDI) in the countries which has flat tax application in the pattern of long-run relationship of FDI and its determinants which are known as market size, labor cost, trade barrier, growth rate, openness, trade deficit, and tax rates. For the empirical analysis we use annual data for 1990-2014 for the countries which have applied flat tax reforms and smaller corporate income tax rates in order to focus and draw out the effect of tax rate instrument on capital movements in the point of tax competition. According to panel regression and cointegration results, corporate tax rate has significant and negative impact on FDI.

The case for NIT+FT in Europe. An empirical optimal taxation exercise

We present an exercise in empirical optimal taxation applied to a Negative Tax with Flat Tax reform for a sample of eight European countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg and the United Kingdom. Two popular approaches to empirical optimal taxation are the structural analytical approach and the non-tructural “sufficient statistics” approach. This paper presents a different approach that combines structural microeconometric modelling, behavioural microsimulation and numerical optimization. For each country, we estimate a microeconometric model of labour supply for both couples and singles. A procedure that simulates the households' choices under given tax-transfer rules is then embedded in a constrained optimization program in order to identify optimal rules under the public budget constraint. The optimality criterion is the class of Kolm's social welfare function. The tax-transfer rules considered as candidates are members of a class that includes as special cases various versions of the Negative Income Tax: Conditional (means-tested) Basic Income, Unconditional Basic Income, In-Work Benefits and General Negative Income Tax, combined with a Flat Tax above the exemption level. The analysis in most cases show that: the General Negative Income Tax strictly dominates the other rules, including the current ones; the Unconditional Basic Income policy is better than the Conditional Basic Income policy; Conditional Basic Income policy may lead to a significant reduction in labour supply and poverty-trap effects; In-Work-Benefit policy is strictly dominated by the General Negative Income Tax and by the Unconditional Basic Income. We also exemplify the possibility of identifying the mapping between the contry-specific “primitives” (social preferences, productivity, public budget constraint, labour supply elasticity and Gini coefficient) and the optimal tax-transfer rules.

Corporate flat tax reforms and businesses’ investment decisions: evidence from Switzerland

This paper focuses on the effects of a corporate income flat tax reform on businesses’ investment decisions. Since 1990, several Swiss states (cantons) have been switching from a graduated to a flat tax rate scheme on profits. The paper assesses the effects of such a reform both on the number of establishments (i.e. extensive margin of investment) and on the number of employees (i.e. intensive margin) in a given jurisdiction by computing a difference-in-differences estimation. Our results suggest that the introduction of a flat tax reform on corporate income taxes has a negative and statistically significant impact on both margins of investment. Moreover, the effect is considerably larger for riskier firms, suggesting that progressive taxation acts as an insurance effect for risk-averse entrepreneurs.

Envelope Wages, Hidden Production and Labor Productivity

We evaluate the relative importance of aggregate labor productivity versus income taxes and social contributions for tax compliance in an economy with a large degree of informality. Empirical evidence points out that tax evasion in Europe happens through partially concealing wages and profits in formally registered enterprises. To this end, we build a model in which employer-employee pairs of heterogeneous productive capacities make joint decisions on the degree of tax evasion. The quantitative model is used to analyze the case of Bulgaria which has the largest informal economy in Europe and underwent a number of important tax reforms over the period 2000–2014, including the introduction of a flat income tax in 2008. The estimation strategy relies on matching the empirical series for the size of the informal economy and other aggregate outcomes for 2000–2014. Our counterfactual experiments show that the most important factor for the changing size of the informal economy is labor productivity, which accounts for more than 75% of the change. The variation in corporate income tax accounts for the rest. We find that the 2008 flat tax reform did not play any visible role in coping with informality.

Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare-Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany

We study three budget-neutral reforms of the German tax and transfer system designed to improve work incentives for people with low incomes: a feasible flat tax reform that provides a basic income equal to the current level of the means-tested unemployment benefit, and two alternative reforms that involve employment subsidies to stimulate participation and full-time work, respectively. We estimate labor supply reactions and welfare effects using a microsimulation model based on household data from the Socio-Economic Panel and a structural labor supply model. We find that all three reforms increase labor supply in the first decile of the income distribution. The flat tax scenario reduces overall labor supply by about 5%; the reform designed to increase participation reduces labor supply by 1%; the reform that provides incentives to work full-time has negligible effects on overall labor supply. With equal welfare weights, aggregate welfare gains are realizable under all three reforms.

Evaluating the Economic Effects of Flat Tax Reforms Using Synthetic Control Methods

Tax reforms are often motivated by their potential to improve economic performance. However, their actual impacts are difficult to quantify. We analyze the impact of flat tax reform on incomes using “synthetic control” methods. We identify the eight Eastern and Central European countries that adopted flat tax systems between 1994 and 2005, and then compare post‐reform GDP per capita of “treated” countries with a convex combination of similar but “untreated” countries, while accounting for the time‐varying impact of unobservable heterogeneity. We find positive impacts in all eight countries, with seven out of eight cases significant at the conventional level.

NIT picking: The macroeconomic effects of a Negative Income Tax

I study a revenue-neutral reform of the U.S. income tax and welfare system that involves the adoption of a Negative Income Tax (NIT). The reform is undertaken in a life-cycle economy with individual heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic labor risk. The optimal NIT consists of a 22% rate and a transfer equivalent to 11% of per-capita GDP. The ex-ante average welfare gain is a 2.1% annual increase of individual consumption. I show that a NIT outperforms a flat tax reform (income tax plus deduction) by a considerable margin. The key consequence of the reform is that high-productivity agents increase their relative importance in the labor supply at the expense of low-productivity agents.

Is It Possible to Adjust ‘With a Human Face’? Differences in Fiscal Consolidation Strategies between Hungary and Iceland

Although Hungary and Iceland suffered a similar fall in GDP, their respective governments decided to follow different strategies of adjustment. Each country cut spending according to different priorities. Moreover, the Hungarian government implemented a flat tax reform, while the Icelandic government replaced the previous flat tax system with a progressive structure. As a result, Iceland met the objectives of the IMF program, while worsening economic conditions forced Hungary to ask for additional external help. In terms of income distribution, social transfers contributed to reducing inequality in Iceland but not in Hungary, while the different tax strategies operated in contrary ways.

NIT Picking: The Macroeconomic Effects of a Negative Income Tax

In a general-equilibrium model, with individual heterogeneity and uninsurable idiosyncratic labor risk, I study a revenue-neutral reform of the U.S. income tax and welfare system that involves the adoption of a Negative Income Tax (NIT). I compare the NIT with a flat tax reform that keeps the actual welfare system. The optimal NIT has a 2.09% ex-ante average welfare gain and outperforms the flat tax reform by a considerable margin. However, it does not have sufficient political support; a "popular" NIT is considered instead. Different sensitivity analyses show the NIT is a viable tax reform.

Getting the Poor to Work: Three Welfare Increasing Reforms for a Busy Germany

We study three budget-neutral reforms of the German tax and transfer system designed to improve work incentives for people with low incomes: a feasible flat tax reform that provides a basic income which is equal to the current level of the means tested unemployment benefit, and two alternative reforms that involve employment subsidies to stimulate participation and full-time work, respectively. We estimate labor supply reactions and welfare effects using a microsimulation model based on household data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) and a structural labor supply model. We find that all three reforms increase labor supply in the first decile of the income distribution. However, the flat tax scenario reduces overall labor supply by 4.9%, the reform scenario designed to increase participation reduces labor supply by 1%, while the reform that provides improved incentives to work full-time has negligible effects on overall labor supply. With equal welfare weights, aggregate welfare gains are realizable under all three reforms.

Russia's flat tax reform: redefining its effects on employment

In 2001 Russia's Tax Department replaced a three-band progressive tax schedule with a flat personal income tax rate of 13%. This article evaluates the employment response to the flat income tax using the data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey. With these data, employment can be classified along two dimensions: primary vs. secondary and official vs. unofficial. This article finds that individuals respond to lower taxes by devoting less time to secondary employment. Official and unofficial employment, on the other hand, remain unaffected by the flattening of the tax schedule. These results are robust to various specifications.

Welfare gains from the adoption of proportional taxation in a general-equilibrium model with a grey economy: the case of Bulgaria’s 2008 flat tax reform

This paper provides a quantitative evaluation of the welfare effect of the introduction of proportional taxation in Bulgaria in 2008, an effect that operates through the grey economy channel. Using a general-equilibrium model, augmented with informal sector, a computational experiment is performed to evaluate the welfare gain from the adoption of proportional taxation. The lower effective tax burden in the new tax regime produces a relocation of people into the official sector, stimulates investment, and increases output and consumption. Finally, under the flat tax regime, the size of the informal sector is smaller, and quantitatively consistent with OECD (Is informal normal? Towards more and better jobs in developing countries. OECD, Paris, 2009) and European Commission (Tax reforms in EU member states, Official Publications of the European Communities, Luxembourg, p 2012, 2012) figures.

An Analysis of Individual Tax Morale for Russia: Before and After Flat Tax Reform

This paper examines individual tax morale in Russia before and after the introduction of flat tax reform in 2001. The World Values (WVS) and European Values Survey (EVS) are used to compare individual tax morale in 1999, 2006 and 2011. An ordered probit regression model is applied to study the effects of socio-demographic and institutional variables on individual tax morale. A new variable for employment sector that appeared in 2006 and 2011 values surveys is included in our model. The probit regression results revealed significant coefficients for income scale and the employment sector variables with negative marginal effects on tax morale. Socio-demographic variables have varying effects on tax morale while institutional variables are positively related to individual tax morale for the three years. To detect linear trend associations, Mantel-Haenszel hypothesis test results indicate that individual tax morale for Russia has not changed in the years before and after flat tax reform.