Fixed Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention

Abstract. A modeling protocol (defined by a series of climate model simulations with specified model output) is introduced. Studies using these simulations are designed to improve the understanding of climate impacts using a strategy for climate intervention (CI) known as marine cloud brightening (MCB) in specific regions; therefore, the protocol is called MCB-REG (where REG stands for region). The model simulations are not intended to assess consequences of a realistic MCB deployment intended to achieve specific climate targets but instead to expose responses to interventions in six regions with pervasive cloud systems that are often considered candidates for such a deployment. A calibration step involving simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) is first used to identify a common forcing, and then coupled simulations with forcing in individual regions and combinations of regions are used to examine climate impacts. Synthetic estimates constructed by superposing responses from simulations with forcing in individual regions are considered a means of approximating the climate impacts produced when MCB interventions are introduced in multiple regions. A few results comparing simulations from three modern climate models (CESM2, E3SMv2, and UKESM1) are used to illustrate the similarities and differences between model behavior and the utility of estimates of MCB climate responses that were synthesized by summing responses introduced in individual regions. Cloud responses to aerosol injections differ substantially between models (CESM2 clouds appear much more susceptible to aerosol emissions than the other models), but patterns in precipitation and surface temperature responses were similar when forcing is imposed with similar amplitudes in the same regions. A previously identified La Niña-like response to forcing introduced in the Southeast Pacific is evident in this study, but the amplitude of the response was shown to markedly differ across the three models. Other common response patterns were also found and are discussed. Forcing in the Southeast Atlantic consistently (across all three models) produces weaker global cooling than that in other regions, and the Southeast Pacific and South Pacific show the strongest cooling. This indicates that the efficiency of a given intervention depends on not only the susceptibility of the clouds to aerosol perturbations, but also the strength of the underlying radiative feedbacks and ocean responses operating within each region. These responses were generally robust across models, but more studies and an examination of responses with ensembles would be beneficial.

ITCZ Response to Disabling Parameterized Convection in Global Fixed‐SST GFDL‐AM4 Aquaplanet Simulations at 50 and 6 km Resolutions

AbstractAs the community increases climate model horizontal resolutions and experiments with removing moist convective parameterizations entirely, it is imperative to understand how these advances affect the InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). We investigate how the ITCZ responds to deactivating parameterized convection at two resolutions, 50 and 6 km, in fixed sea surface temperature, aquaplanet simulations with the NOAA GFDL AM4 atmospheric model. Disabling parameterized convection at 50 km resolution narrows the ITCZ and increases its precipitation minus evaporation (P–E) maximum by ∼78%, whereas at 6 km resolution doing so widens the ITCZ and decreases its P–E maximum by ∼50%. Using the column‐integrated moist static energy budget, we decompose these tropical P–E responses into contributions from changes in atmospheric energy input (AEI), gross moist stability, and gross moisture stratification. At 6 km, the ITCZ weakens due to increased gross moist stability. Disabling the convective parameterization at this finer resolution deepens the circulation, favoring more efficient poleward energy transport out of the deep tropics and reduced precipitation in the core of the ITCZ. Conversely, at 50 km the ITCZ strengthening is primarily driven by AEI, which in turn stems primarily from increased low cloud amount and thus longwave cloud radiative cooling in the Hadley cell subsiding branch. The Hadley circulation overturning intensifies to produce poleward energy fluxes that compensate the longwave cooling, yielding a stronger ITCZ. We further show that the low level diabatic heating profiles over the descending region are instrumental in understanding such diverse responses.

Numerical Study of Effects of Warm Ocean Eddies on Tropical Cyclones Intensity in Northwest Pacific

This study investigates the impact of warm core eddies (WCEs) on the ocean response and intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the Northwest Pacific, focusing on three typhoons in 2018: Jebi, Trami, and Kong-rey. The research uses the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model coupled with the MPIPOM-TC ocean model. Idealized WCEs are embedded into the ocean model ahead of each TC. The impacts of WCEs are evaluated by comparing simulations with and without their presence. Uncoupled experiments with the fixed sea surface temperature (SST) serve as a reference for TC maximum potential intensity. To quantitatively assess the impact of WCEs on the SST, enthalpy fluxes, and TC intensity, a Maximum WCE Potential Index (MWPI) is introduced. Our findings indicate that for a WCE with a 200 km radius, the potential to reduce SST cooling ranges from 34 to 37%, while the potential to increase enthalpy fluxes varies between 25 and 39%. The influence of WCEs on TC intensity, as measured by minimum pressure, shows a larger variation from 27% to 48%, depending on the oceanic and atmospheric environmental conditions in each storm. Additional experiments reveal the sensitivity of the MWPI to WCE size, with TC Trami showing less sensitivity due to its slower translational speed. This study underscores the significant role of oceanic thermal conditions, particularly WCEs, in modulating TC intensity.

Comparison of methods to estimate aerosol effective radiative forcings in climate models

Abstract. Uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing (ERF) of climate primarily arises from the unknown contribution of aerosols, which impact radiative fluxes directly and through modifying cloud properties. Climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures but perturbed atmospheric aerosol loadings allow for an estimate of how strongly the planet's radiative energy budget has been perturbed by the increase in aerosols since pre-industrial times. The approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) technique further decomposes the contributions to the direct forcing due to aerosol scattering and absorption and to the indirect forcing due to aerosol-induced changes in cloud scattering, amount, and absorption, as well as the effects of aerosols on surface albedo. Here we evaluate previously published APRP-derived estimates of aerosol effective radiative forcings from these simulations conducted in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and find that they are biased as a result of two large coding errors that – in most cases – fortuitously compensate. The most notable exception is the direct radiative forcing from absorbing aerosols, which is more than 40 % larger averaged across CMIP6 models in the present study. Correcting these biases eliminates the residuals and leads to better agreement with benchmark estimates derived from double calls to the radiation code. The APRP method – when properly implemented – remains a highly accurate and efficient technique for diagnosing aerosol ERF in cases where double radiation calls are not available, and in all cases it provides quantification of the individual contributors to the ERF that are highly useful but not otherwise available.

Cloud‐Radiation Interactions and Their Contributions to Convective Self‐Aggregation

AbstractThis study investigates the direct radiative‐convective processes that drive and maintain aggregation within convection‐permitting elongated channel (and smaller square) simulations of the UK Met Office Unified Model. Our simulations are configured using three fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) following the Radiative‐Convective Equilibrium Model Intercomparison Project (RCEMIP) protocol. By defining cloud types based on the profile of condensed water, we study the importance of radiative interactions with each cloud type to aggregation. We eliminate the SST dependence of the vertically integrated frozen moist static energy (FMSE) variance budget framework by normalizing FMSE between hypothetical upper and lower limits based on SST. The elongated channel simulations reach similar degrees of aggregation across SSTs, despite shortwave and longwave interactions with FMSE contributing less to aggregation as SST increases. High‐cloud longwave interactions are the main drivers and maintainers of aggregation. Their influence decreases with SST as high clouds become less abundant. This SST dependence is consistent with changes in grid spacing and the critical humidity threshold for condensation (RHcrit). However, the domain‐mean longwave‐FMSE feedback would likely decrease as grid spacing and RHcrit are reduced by lowering the condensed water path and cloud top height of high‐cloud, and altering the distribution of different cloud types. Shortwave interactions with water vapor are key maintainers of aggregation and are dependent on SST and the degree of aggregation itself. The analysis method used provides a new framework to compare the effects of radiative‐convective processes on self‐aggregation across different SSTs and model configurations to help improve our understanding of self‐aggregation.

Dynamical and Trace Gas Responses of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation to Increased CO2

AbstractLong‐term projections of the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) remain uncertain. Using the high‐top “Middle Atmosphere” (MA) version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE (E2.2‐AP), we show that increased CO2 reduces the QBO period and weakens its amplitude, consistent with results from recent multimodel studies. The amplitude response is asymmetric, with the easterly phase weakening more than the westerly phase. Results from both coupled atmosphere‐ocean and climatologically fixed sea surface temperature simulations link the period response to changes in parameterized convective gravity wave fluxes, whereas the amplitude changes are more closely tied to changes in tropical upwelling. Comparisons of simulations with and without ozone‐dynamical feedbacks reveal that ozone feedbacks increase the QBO amplitude and period in pre‐industrial control simulations, and reduce the response of the amplitude to increased CO2. The response of stratospheric tracers to projected changes in the QBO is also investigated. Similarity between results using fully interactive (trace gas and aerosol) versus linearized ozone chemical mechanisms suggests that the QBO response to CO2 does not depend on additional chemical feedbacks beyond those associated with ozone, which implies that projected QBO changes may be credibly represented using simplified stratospheric ozone schemes.

The impact of time‐varying sea surface temperature on UK regional atmosphere forecasts

AbstractA new approach to improve the ocean surface boundary condition used in regional numerical weather prediction is proposed. Typically, regional atmosphere forecast systems assume a fixed sea surface temperature during a simulation. The study assesses the use of ocean temperature from an operational regional ocean model as an evolving lower boundary in a kilometre‐scale regional atmosphere configuration centred on the UK. Simulations of a winter and two five day duration summer case studies associated with anomalously warm temperatures are considered. The largest impact is found in summer, when a growing cold bias in mean temperature over land compared with observations is apparent when using a fixed global‐scale analysis lower boundary condition. The mean error is improved by 0.1 K when using a fixed temperature boundary condition from a kilometre‐scale regional ocean model initial condition. When using hourly surface temperature data from the same regional ocean model, the error is improved by 0.5 K for this case. Prediction of daytime maximum air temperature is also improved during the summer heat wave cases. A winter case study shows marginal improvement over the ocean and negligible changes over land. These results are confirmed in longer duration experiments using an hourly cycling regional forecast system with data assimilation for summer and winter periods. A systematic and statistically significant improvement of near‐surface temperature verification relative to the observations over land is demonstrated for both summer and winter using the new approach. This study supports future operational implementation of a time‐varying lower boundary for regional numerical weather prediction.

Sensitivity of the Intensity and Structure of Tropical Cyclones to Tropospheric Stability Conditions

The intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) is controlled by their environmental conditions. In addition to the sea surface temperature, tropospheric temperature lapse rate and tropopause height are highly variable. This study investigates the sensitivity of the intensity and structure of TCs to environmental static stability with a fixed sea surface temperature by conducting a large ensemble of axisymmetric numerical experiments in which tropopause height and tropospheric temperature lapse rate are systematically changed based on the observed environmental properties for TCs that occurred in the western North Pacific. The results indicate that the intensity of the simulated TCs changes more sharply with the increase in the temperature lapse rate than with the increase in the tropopause height. The increases in the intensity of TCs are 1.3–1.9 m s−1 per 1% change of the lapse rate and 0.1–0.5 m s−1 per 1% change of the tropopause height. With the increase in the intensity of TCs, supergradient wind at low levels and double warm core structures are evident. Specifically, the formation of the warm core at the lower levels is closely tied with the intensification of TCs, and the temperature excess of the lower warm core becomes larger in higher lapse rate cases.

Surface temperature response to regional black carbon emissions: do location and magnitude matter?

Abstract. Aerosol radiative forcing can influence climate both locally and far outside the emission region. Here we investigate black carbon (BC) aerosols emitted in four major emission areas and evaluate the importance of emission location and magnitude as well as the concept of the absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTP). We perform simulations with a climate model (NorESM) with a fully coupled ocean and with fixed sea surface temperatures. BC emissions for year 2000 are increased by factors of 10 and 20 in South Asia, North America, and Europe, respectively, and by 5 and 10 in East Asia (due to higher emissions there). The perturbed simulations and a reference simulation are run for 100 years with three ensemble members each. We find strikingly similar regional surface temperature responses and geographical patterns per unit BC emission in Europe and North America but somewhat lower temperature sensitivities for East Asian emissions. BC emitted in South Asia shows a different geographical pattern in surface temperatures, by changing the Indian monsoon and cooling the surface. We find that the ARTP approach rather accurately reproduces the fully coupled temperature response of NorESM. Choosing the highest emission rate results in lower surface temperature change per emission unit compared to the lowest rate, but the difference is generally not statistically significant except for the Arctic. An advantage of high-perturbation simulations is the clearer emergence of regional signals. Our results show that the linearity of normalized temperature effects of BC is fairly well preserved despite the relatively large perturbations but that regional temperature coefficients calculated from high perturbations may be a conservative estimate. Regardless of emission region, BC causes a northward shift of the ITCZ, and this shift is apparent both with a fully coupled ocean and with fixed sea surface temperatures. For these regional BC emission perturbations, we find that the effective radiative forcing is not a good measure of the climate response. A limitation of this study is the uncertainties in BC–cloud interactions and the amount of BC absorption, both of which are model dependent.

Estimating the Effective Radiative Forcing of Contrail Cirrus

AbstractEvidence from previous climate model simulations has suggested a potentially low efficacy of contrails to force global mean surface temperature changes. In this paper, a climate model with a state-of-the-art contrail cirrus representation is used for fixed sea surface temperature simulations in order to determine the effective radiative forcing (ERF) from contrail cirrus. ERF is expected to be a good metric for intercomparing the quantitative importance of different contributions to surface temperature and climate impact. Substantial upscaling of aviation density is necessary to ensure statistically significant results from our simulations. The contrail cirrus ERF is found to be less than 50% of the respective instantaneous or stratosphere adjusted radiative forcings, with a best estimate of roughly 35%. The reduction of ERF is much more substantial for contrail cirrus than it is for a CO2increase when both stratosphere adjusted forcings are of similar magnitude. Analysis of all rapid radiative adjustments contributing to the ERF indicates that the reduction is mainly induced by a compensating effect of natural clouds that provide a negative feedback. Compared to the CO2reference case, a less positive combined water vapor and lapse rate adjustment also contributes to a more distinct reduction of contrail cirrus ERF, but not as much as the natural cloud adjustment. Based on the experience gained in this paper, respective contrail cirrus simulations with interactive ocean will be performed as the next step toward establishing contrail cirrus efficacy. ERF results of contrail cirrus from other climate models equipped with suitable parameterizations are regarded as highly desirable.

Present‐Day and Historical Aerosol and Ozone Characteristics in CNRM CMIP6 Simulations

AbstractCharacteristics and radiative forcing of the aerosol and ozone fields of two configurations of the Centre National de Recherches Météoroglogiques (CNRM) and Cerfacs climate model are analyzed over the historical period (1850–2014), using several Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) simulations. CNRM‐CM6‐1 is the atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model including prescribed aerosols and a linear stratospheric ozone scheme, while the Earth System Model CNRM‐ESM2‐1 has interactive tropospheric aerosols and chemistry of the midtroposphere aloft. The representations of aerosols and ozone in CNRM‐CM6‐1 are issued from simulations of CNRM‐ESM2‐1, and this ensures some comparability of both representations. In particular, present‐day anthropogenic aerosol optical depths are similar (0.018), and their spatial patterns correspond to those of reference data sets such as MACv2 and MACv2‐SP despite a negative bias. Effective radiative forcings (ERFs) have been estimated using 30‐year fixed sea surface temperature simulations (piClim) and several calls to the radiative scheme. Present‐day anthropogenic aerosol ERF, aerosol‐radiation ERF, and aerosol cloud ERF are fully within CMIP5 estimates and, respectively, equal to 1.10, 0.36, and 0.81 W m for CNRM‐CM6‐1 and 0.21, 0.61, and 0.74 W m for CNRM‐ESM2‐1. Additional CMIP6‐type piClim simulations show that these differences are mainly due to the interactivity of the aerosol scheme whose impact is confirmed when assessing the response of both climate model configurations to rising CO . Present‐day stratospheric ozone ERF, equal to 0.04 W m , is in agreement with that of the CMIP6 ozone. No trend appears in the ozone ERF over the historical period although the evolution of the total column ozone is correctly simulated.

Efficacy of Climate Forcings in PDRMIP Models.

Quantifying the efficacy of different climate forcings is important for understanding the real‐world climate sensitivity. This study presents a systematic multimodel analysis of different climate driver efficacies using simulations from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). Efficacies calculated from instantaneous radiative forcing deviate considerably from unity across forcing agents and models. Effective radiative forcing (ERF) is a better predictor of global mean near‐surface air temperature (GSAT) change. Efficacies are closest to one when ERF is computed using fixed sea surface temperature experiments and adjusted for land surface temperature changes using radiative kernels. Multimodel mean efficacies based on ERF are close to one for global perturbations of methane, sulfate, black carbon, and insolation, but there is notable intermodel spread. We do not find robust evidence that the geographic location of sulfate aerosol affects its efficacy. GSAT is found to respond more slowly to aerosol forcing than CO2 in the early stages of simulations. Despite these differences, we find that there is no evidence for an efficacy effect on historical GSAT trend estimates based on simulations with an impulse response model, nor on the resulting estimates of climate sensitivity derived from the historical period. However, the considerable intermodel spread in the computed efficacies means that we cannot rule out an efficacy‐induced bias of ±0.4 K in equilibrium climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling when estimated using the historical GSAT trend.

Probing the Response of Tropical Deep Convection to Aerosol Perturbations Using Idealized Cloud-Resolving Simulations with Parameterized Large-Scale Dynamics

Abstract A framework is introduced to investigate the indirect effect of aerosol loading on tropical deep convection using three-dimensional limited-domain idealized cloud-system-resolving model simulations coupled with large-scale dynamics over fixed sea surface temperature. The large-scale circulation is parameterized using the spectral weak temperature gradient (WTG) approximation that utilizes the dominant balance between adiabatic cooling and diabatic heating in the tropics. The aerosol loading effect is examined by varying the number of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) available to form cloud droplets in the two-moment bulk microphysics scheme over a wide range of environments from 30 to 5000 cm−3. The radiative heating is held at a constant prescribed rate in order to isolate the microphysical effects. Analyses are performed over the period after equilibrium is achieved between convection and the large-scale environment. Mean precipitation is found to decrease modestly and monotonically when the aerosol number concentration increases as convection gets weaker, despite the increase in cloud liquid water in the warm-rain region and ice crystals aloft. This reduction is traced down to the reduction in surface enthalpy fluxes as an energy source to the atmospheric column induced by the coupling of the large-scale motion, though the gross moist stability remains constant. Increasing CCN concentration leads to 1) a cooler free troposphere because of a reduction in the diabatic heating and 2) a warmer boundary layer because of suppressed evaporative cooling. This dipole temperature structure is associated with anomalously descending large-scale vertical motion above the boundary layer and ascending motion at lower levels. Sensitivity tests suggest that changes in convection and mean precipitation are unlikely to be caused by the impact of aerosols on cloud droplets and microphysical properties but rather by accounting for the feedback from convective adjustment with the large-scale dynamics. Furthermore, a simple scaling argument is derived based on the vertically integrated moist static energy budget, which enables estimation of changes in precipitation given known changes in surfaces enthalpy fluxes and the constant gross moist stability. The impact on cloud hydrometeors and microphysical properties is also examined, and it is consistent with the macrophysical picture.

Variations in ozone and greenhouse gases as drivers of Southern Hemisphere climate in a medium-complexity global climate model

The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is being affected not only by the global increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) but also by the ongoing recovery of stratospheric ozone. The competing roles of both are usually studied by means of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCM) due to the complexity in the atmospheric processes and interactions involved. The main objective of this paper is to determine whether quantitatively similar results can be achieved using a simpler, medium-complexity GCM. This includes addressing the sensitivity of the medium-complexity model to changes in GHG and ozone concentrations as well as looking into the plausible mechanisms driving such patterns of variations in atmospheric circulation, precipitation and temperature extremes. Two sets of simulations are performed: one with fixed sea surface temperatures (SST) and another one making use of a mixed-layer ocean model coupled to the GCM. Results show that the GCM is highly sensitive to changes in the atmospheric composition, and that the largest differences are found when SST are allowed to vary accordingly, particularly in the case of temperature extremes. Specific analyses are also performed on changes in subtropical precipitation over the continental regions of the SH, with moisture budget decomposition being applied in order to provide explanations for the rainfall changes described in the manuscript.

Examining the Predictability of the Successive MJO Events of November 2011 Using Coupled 30-Day NAVGEM and COAMPS Simulations

AbstractGiven the prohibitive expense of running a global coupled high-resolution model for multiweek forecasts, we explore the feasibility of running a limited-area model forced by a global model on monthly time scales. Specifically, we seek to understand the constraints of the accuracy of lateral boundary conditions (LBCs) produced by NAVGEM on the skill of limited-area COAMPS forecasts. In this study, we analyze simulations of the successive MJO events of November 2011. In the NAVGEM simulations, the effect of ocean boundary conditions are examined, including fixed sea surface temperature (SST), observed SST, and coupled SST with HYCOM. With fixed SST, the second MJO fails to develop, highlighting the importance of the ocean response in the ability to model successive MJO events. Next, we examine the dependence of the regional COAMPS skill on the global model forecast performance. It is found that even when using the inferior but computationally inexpensive uncoupled NAVGEM for LBCs, coupled COAMPS can accurately predict the successive MJO events. A well-resolved atmospheric Rossby wave that slowly propagates westward in the COAMPS domain contributes to increased predictive skill. Ocean coupling and the ability of the model to sufficiently warm the ocean during the convectively suppressed phase also appears to be critical. Last, while COAMPS exhibits a significant moist bias, the sign and magnitude of the vertical and horizontal moisture flux appear to be consistent with reanalysis, a necessary attribute of any model to be used in multiweek MJO prediction.

Comparison of Effective Radiative Forcing Calculations Using Multiple Methods, Drivers, and Models

AbstractWe compare six methods of estimating effective radiative forcing (ERF) using a set of atmosphere‐ocean general circulation models. This is the first multiforcing agent, multimodel evaluation of ERF values calculated using different methods. We demonstrate that previously reported apparent consistency between the ERF values derived from fixed sea surface temperature simulations and linear regression holds for most climate forcings, excluding black carbon (BC). When land adjustment is accounted for, however, the fixed sea surface temperature ERF values are generally 10–30% larger than ERFs derived using linear regression across all forcing agents, with a much larger (~70–100%) discrepancy for BC. Except for BC, this difference can be largely reduced by either using radiative kernel techniques or by exponential regression. Responses of clouds and their effects on shortwave radiation show the strongest variability in all experiments, limiting the application of regression‐based ERF in small forcing simulations.

Improving Estimates of Long-Term Climate Sensitivity

New modeling casts doubt on the suitability of running experiments with fixed sea surface temperatures to understand the effects of cloud aggregation on Earth’s climate.

Dust impacts on radiative effects of black carbon aerosol in Central Asia

The radiative effect of mineral dust and black carbon aerosol are investigated with aerosolclimate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures as boundary condition. The semi-direct effects of the absorbing aerosol are assessed as the residual between the total direct radiative effect and the instantaneous direct radiative effect of the aerosol species. For Central Asia the presence of mineral dust aerosol below a black carbon aerosol layer enhances the positive radiative effect of the black carbon aerosol.

Simulated Responses of the West African Monsoon and Zonal‐Mean Tropical Precipitation to Early Holocene Orbital Forcing

AbstractThis study seeks to improve our mechanistic understanding of how the insolation changes associated with orbital forcing impact the West African monsoon and zonal‐mean tropical precipitation. We impose early Holocene orbital parameters in simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory AM2.1 atmospheric general circulation model, either with fixed sea surface temperatures, a 50‐m thermodynamic slab ocean, or coupled to a dynamic ocean (CM2.1). In all cases, West African Monsoon rainfall expands northward, but the summer zonal‐mean Intertropical Convergence Zone does not—there is drying near 10°N, and in the slab ocean experiment a southward shift of rainfall. This contradicts expectations from the conventional energetic framework for the Intertropical Convergence Zone location, given anomalous southward energy fluxes in the deep tropics. These anomalous energy fluxes are not accomplished by a stronger Hadley circulation; instead, they arise from an increase in total gross moist stability in the northern tropics.

Large-Scale Modeling of Absorbing Aerosols and Their Semi-Direct Effects

Radiative effects of absorbing black carbon and mineral dust aerosols are estimated from global aerosol climate model simulations with fixed sea surface temperatures as a boundary condition. Semi-direct effects are approximated as the residual between the total direct radiative effect and the instantaneous direct radiative effect of the simulated absorbing aerosol species. No distinction is made for aerosols from natural and anthropogenic sources. Results for global average are highly uncertain due to high model variability, but consistent with previous estimates. The global average results for black carbon aerosol semi-direct effects are small due to cancellation of regionally positive or negative effects, and may be positive or negative overall, depending on the model setup. The presence of mineral dust aerosol above dark surfaces and below a layer containing black carbon aerosol may enhance the reflectivity and act to enhance the positive radiative effect of black carbon aerosol. When mineral dust is absent the semi-direct effect at the top-of-atmosphere of black carbon aerosol from both anthropogenic and natural sources is −0.03 Wm−2, while averaging to +0.09 Wm−2 if dust is included.