Fiscal Policy Framework Research Articles

Strengthening Russia's Fiscal Framework

Though many aspects of Russia's fiscal policy framework are close to best practice on paper, actual practice in recent years has been moving away from best practice. In particular, the continued focus on the overall rather than the nonoil balance, and the regular use of supplemental budgets to spend windfall oil revenues contribute to procylicality of fiscal policy, risking costly boom-bust cycles. Against this background, this paper suggests several improvements to the framework for fiscal policy.

Colombia: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement--Staff Report; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia

Colombia’s very strong track record of macroeconomic policy management, underpinned by robust fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, has reduced vulnerabilities in recent years and helped weather the global financial crisis. The authorities’ policy focus has shifted from supporting the recovery through appropriate countercyclical measures to rebuilding policy buffers through fiscal consolidation, the normalization of monetary policy, and a strengthening of the reserve position.

Tax burden distribution and GDP growth: Non-linear causality considerations in the USA

The objective of the study is to investigate for non-linear causality running from a set of alternative tax burden ratios — i.e. total tax burden, tax burden on production and imports, tax burden on personal income and, tax burden on corporate income — to per capita GDP growth. The study employs tax revenues and GDP U.S. government data for the period 1948:1–2008:4 in two non-linear causality tests, developed by Hiemstra and Jones (1994) and Diks and Panchenko (2006). Using the two alternative tests serves the need for evaluating the role of heteroskedasticity as a non-linear causality-affecting factor. In a fiscal policy framework, the study explores the GDP growth influential role of the tax burden distribution across tax-liable groups in a country's economy. The empirical findings provide two discrete policy considerations. First, when the policy challenge is to influence the GDP growth by means of taxation, this should be preferably attempted by adjusting the taxes levied on production and imports or, on corporate income. On the contrary, when stability in GDP growth is required, while a change in the tax policy is attempted, this should be preferably restricted in the field of the personal income taxation.

Modernizing the Framework for Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Sustainability Analysis

Modernizing the framework for fiscal policy and public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) has become necessary, particularly in light of the recent crisis and rising sustainability concerns in some advanced economies. While recognizing the inherently challenging nature of such analysis, this paper highlights areas where improvements are needed and makes both general and specific proposals on how this could be achieved. It also proposes to move to a risk-based approach to DSAs for all market-access countries, where the depth and extent of analysis would be commensurate with concerns regarding sustainability, while a reasonable level of standardization would be maintained.

Fiscal Transformation in Turkey over the Last Two Decades

Turkey has made significant progress over the last two decades regarding fiscal consolidation and a strong reform of fiscal policy. The highly fragile country of the 1990s, whose primary fiscal concern was to sustain its public finances in the short term, has become a successful transition model. Now the authorities are discussing the adoption of fiscal rules as a new anchor in public finances. A draft Fiscal Rule Law was prepared and submitted to the parliament in 2010. This article examines the fiscal policy framework of Turkey in the 1990s and 2000s and its striking economic and social consequences. The article also examines the attempts to adopt fiscal rules for Turkey.

A Challenge for the G20: Globally Stipulated Debt Brakes and Transnational Independent Fiscal Supervisory Councils

Debt-to-GDP ratios have grown to unprecedented levels in many industrialized economies. This requires disciplined consolidation efforts which are, however, supposed to come now at the wrong time with the economic recovery being fragile. The countries forming the G20 need to make sure the long-term sustainability of public finances. Not least, this is indispensable in order to avoid a further spreading of the sovereign debt crisis. Against this background, we call for a global debt brake following the Swiss or German example which should be agreed upon in Cannes in early November 2011. The agreement on the debt brake should be binding – in contrast to previous expressions made at the G20-level to reduce government debt, as, for example, the Seoul Action Plan is lacking any binding character. Therefore, the debt brakes should be fixed in national constitutions and monitored by independent transnational fiscal councils. The fiscal councils could be located at the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and should conduct a regular evaluation of national budget plans in order to ensure that they meet the requirements stipulated by the debt brake. Through this global monitoring process, an early warning system could be developed with the aim to avoid sovereign debt crises and the resulting contagion risks among highly indebted countries in the future. In an economic and political environment which is characterized by large uncertainties concerning economic prospects and the fear of a potential spreading of the sovereign debt crisis, a global debt brake in combination with an independent transnational supervisory council would send a credible signal that a reduction of sovereign debt to sustainable levels is not further delayed into the future. Moreover, a well-designed debt brake ensures that the general government budget is balanced over the business cycle. Consequently, it is a more efficient instrument than the former Stability and Growth Pact for the Eurozone which in fact stipulated a ceiling for the budget deficit, but whose requirements regarding budget surpluses in good times were insufficient. This asymmetry is eliminated by those debt brakes which are in force in Switzerland and Germany. The new fiscal policy framework thus leaves enough room for discretionary fiscal policy and the workings of automatic stabilizers in an economic downturn.

Public Debt Targeting An Application to the Caribbean

This paper proposes a fiscal policy framework we call Public Debt Targeting. The framework seeks to smooth primary spending over the business cycle while remaining consistent with public debt sustainability. Under the proposed framework, a government announces a commitment to a public debt band trajectory over the medium term, while sequentially announcing primary expenditures for the next budget cycle, which are determined recursively based on the history of shocks. Public debt targeting differs from a structural balance rule in that it internalizes the effect of the deterioration in creditworthiness from fiscal deficits and public debt accumulation, which tend to affect sovereign spreads, interest rates, exchange rates, and economic activity. The proposed framework is applied to Caribbean economies, which in general show high levels of public debt and procyclical primary expenditure.

UK Fiscal Prospects

The UK is restructuring the fiscal policy framework once again, with an intention to move toward independent assessment and forecasting in the budget process. At the same time a large-scale, if delayed, fiscal consolidation is planned at a time when there is significant spare capacity in the economy. Economic growth is also projected to be below trend, at least this year and perhaps next. It is unusual to see a fiscal tightening when the output gap appears to be widening. These policy settings should be seen in the context of the most radical change in the nature of the relationship between the government and the economy for at least thirty years. This note assesses the impact of the new programme on the economy as well as setting out a projection for the medium-term public finances.

Second-best tax policy and natural resource management in growing economies

This paper investigates the exploitation of natural resources in a growing economy within a second-best fiscal policy framework. Agents derive utility from two types of consumption goods—one which relies on a natural resource input and one which does not—as well as from leisure and from natural resource amenity values. We connect second best policy to essential components of utility by considering the elasticity of substitution among each of the four utility arguments. The results illustrate potentially important relationships between amenity values and leisure. When amenity values are complementary with leisure, for instance when natural resources are used for recreation, optimal taxes on goods produced with natural resources generally increase over time. On the other hand, optimal taxes on goods produced from natural resources generally decrease over time when leisure and amenity values are substitutes. Under some parameterizations, complex dynamics leading to non-monotonic time paths can emerge.

Evropská fiskální pravidla a jejich účinnost: prvních 15 let

The Stability and Growth Pact has become a primary fiscal policy framework in all European countries since 1997. Together with Maastricht fiscal criteria it determines the fiscal discipline of integration process. The aim of this study is to evaluate ex-post effectiveness of the fiscal rules from the view of a primary structural balance development during 1991-2007. A method taken for the evaluation was a panel-corrected standard errors regression with fixed effects applied on the former euro zone countries (EA12), "old" EU members (EU15) and finally on the EU25. The results of the econometric estimation indicate that all considered rules were effective even though with different impacts. Furthermore, the analysis suggests that electoral cycle, among others, has strong impact on the primary structural component of public balance. However against theoretical assumptions, there is not a conclusive statistical significance of the government behaviour on the current state in the business cycle.

Politics, Interest Groups and State Funding of Public Higher Education

State support of public higher education has rapidly declined relative to total state spending. Much of this decline in support is due to the rapid growth in spending on such things as Medicaid. However, relative support of public higher education varies significantly between states. This study applies Tandberg’s (2009) fiscal policy framework created to explain state support of public higher education in order to evaluate the relationship between various factors and states’ relative support of higher education. While Tandberg’s fiscal policy framework accounts for traditional economic and demographic factors in explaining state support for higher education, it also draws attention to political influences as well including the impact of state-level interest groups. Using cross-sectional time-series analysis these relationships are explored over a 19-year period. The findings provide evidence of the significant impact of interest groups and politics on state fiscal policy in regard to higher education.

A Rule-Based Medium-Term Fiscal Policy Framework for Tanzania

A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The diamond proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending.

Capital Inflows, Household Debt and the Boom Bust Cycle in Estonia

From 2000 to 2007, Estonia was one of the fastest growing emerging market economies. A housing boom, fuelled by capital inflows and credit, resulted in skyrocketing house prices and an over-expanded construction sector. However, the currency board limited the Bank of Estonia’s ability to curb credit growth, while the fiscal policy framework amplified the cycle through pro-cyclical spending increases and tax cuts. As credit was mostly financed by cross-border loans from foreign banks, the risks of disruptions to credit flows and financial contagion have increased. Some have already materialised through tightened lending standards and capital outflows. Estonia is now in a severe recession. To restore high and sustainable growth, the country will need to rebalance its resources from non-tradables towards exports. Regaining external competitiveness will be challenging, however, given the fixed exchange rate and recent devaluations in partner countries. Flexibility of the economy will thus be crucial. Over the medium term, policymakers could also strengthen incentives for a better functioning of the housing finance market and gradually remove the pro-cyclical bias of fiscal policy.

A Rule-Based Medium-Term Fiscal Policy Framework for Tanzania

A zero net domestic financing (NDF) target has served Tanzania well in recent years, contributing to prudent expenditure policy, improved fiscal sustainability, and macroeconomic stability. Moving to a more flexible fiscal policy, however, may serve Tanzania better. The diamond proposed in this paper incorporates a permanent hard ceiling on debt and annual benchmark limits on NDF, expenditure growth, and nonconcessional external financing. This rule would provide flexibility for countercyclical policy and help define the fiscal space for infrastructure spending that is consistent with longrun fiscal sustainability. An illustrative simulation shows that Tanzania has considerable fiscal space for development spending.

Commentary: the Policy Framework

The Government, when it came to power in 1997, adopted a monetary and fiscal policy framework which was intended to deliver low and stable inflation, high and stable economic growth and fiscal balance as a basis for fairness between generations. It is abundantly clear from the chaos of the past few weeks that the policy has failed. Given that the policy goals are unlikely to be criticised, the question addressed here is which parts of the policy need replacing or augmenting.

Public Investment in the United Kingdom

The new fiscal and expenditure policy framework adopted in the United Kingdom in 1997 included clear fiscal rules and a reformed system of budgetary controls and capital appraisal procedures. These macro and micro reforms allowed the historic shortfall in public investment to be addressed. This article lays out some general considerations for public investment policy, including involving the private sector, and describes how the United Kingdom has implemented a strategy to deliver an increase in public investment while maintaining a sustainable fiscal position.

Fiscal policy in the face of long-term expenditure uncertainties

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of “shocks,” and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.

Characterizing the Expenditure Uncertainties of Industrial Countries in the 21st Century

A number of uncertainties about long-term expenditure commitments in industrial countries are examined: (i) the assumptions underlying the projections, (ii) the potential to further reduce non-age-related expenditures, (iii) the implicitly assumed absence of “shocks,” and (iv) the potential for raising revenue. This paper concludes that (i) there is scope, but within narrow limits, to reduce non-age-related expenditures; (ii) fiscal policy frameworks tend to understate risks; and (iii) prevailing tax rates leave little room for increasing taxation in the countries facing the strongest aging pressures. In sum, governments will have to adopt a much more ambitious fiscal policy stance to cope with aging populations.

Switzerland: 2006 Article IV Consultation: Staff Report; Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland

Switzerland showed commendable economic growth with low inflation and increasing employment. Executive Directors commended the prudent macroeconomic management, sound monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, structural reforms, and flexible labor markets. They noted that the monetary policy framework continues to serve Switzerland well, underpinned by effective practices of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). They agreed that the Swiss financial system appears to be healthy and dynamic, and appreciated the regulatory and supervisory framework, and the vigilance in monitoring financial sector risks.

Policy-making in EMU: strategies, rules and discretion

Six years into the successful operation of European economic and monetary union (EMU), the conduct of the single monetary policy and of national economic policies and the interaction between them continue to be debated by both academics and policy-makers. This paper approaches the debate by assessing the role that strategies, rules and discretion play in the conduct of economic policies in the euro area. From this perspective, it discusses in particular the monetary policy strategy of the European Central Bank (ECB), the rules-based framework for national fiscal policies as laid down in the Stability and Growth Pact and the structural reform efforts under the umbrella of the Lisbon Strategy. It concludes that the current policy framework - with its combination of strategies, rules and constrained discretion - is well suited to deliver stability and growth in Europe, provided it is implemented effectively.