This paper systematically investigates the disaggregated effects of public debt on fiscal stability in Nigeria from 1980 to 2022, a period marked by structural adjustments, fiscal crises, oil price volatility, and changing debt management practices. After obtaining stationarity, data was analysed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. The results indicate that domestic debt, debt service payments, foreign reserves, currency rates, and private investment all contribute to macroeconomic instability. Foreign direct investment inflows improved fiscal stability in the long and short term. External debt, interest rates, and trade openness all have different immediate and long-term repercussions. Despite the fact that public borrowing is a crucial tool for promoting development, the results show that Nigeria's debt profile has been undermined by poor revenue capacity, ongoing fiscal deficits, governance issues, and inefficient use of borrowed funds, To reduce vulnerability to external shocks, the study suggests strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, prioritizing concessional borrowing, improving debt management transparency, increasing public investment efficiency, and diversifying the economy. These steps are critical for achieving sustainable debt management and ensuring that public borrowing contributes meaningfully to long-term economic growth.

ABSTRACT Growing fiscal deficits in middle‐income countries make enhanced domestic revenue mobilization essential for achieving the sustainable development goals. This paper explores nontax revenue buoyancy in 26 middle‐income countries over the period from 2005 to 2020, focusing on the roles of money supply and corporate profitability. The Generalized Method of Moments approach, along with a novel application of panel quantile regression, is used to address endogeneity issues and capture the heterogeneous effects of these determinants across different levels of NTR buoyancy. NTR is found to be nonbuoyant in most countries, except for resource‐rich nations such as Angola and Azerbaijan. Corporate profitability and money supply show the strongest negative effect on NTR buoyancy. The quantile regression results reveal substantial variation: at low NTR levels (10th percentile), profitability and money supply positively influence buoyancy, whereas GDP growth has negative effects. This pattern reverses at high NTR levels (90th percentile). These findings highlight the importance of personalized fiscal policies and emphasize the key roles of money supply and corporate profitability in achieving fiscal sustainability. Countries should prioritize reforms in state‐owned enterprises, coordinate fiscal and monetary policies prudently, and adopt context‐specific strategies based on their NTR performance levels to enhance fiscal sustainability and advance progress toward the sustainable development goals.

This study aims to analyze the relationship between public debt and fiscal sustainability in Iraq during the period (2004–2023), considering the economic and financial fluctuations experienced by the Iraqi economy as a rentier economy that relies heavily on oil revenues. The study adopts a quantitative approach using annual time-series data, alongside a descriptive-analytical approach to interpret financial and economic developments. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology was employed after verifying the properties of the time series using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. The results of the bounds testing approach indicated the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between public debt and oil revenues, non-oil revenues, gross domestic product (GDP), and the general budget deficit. The results of the error correction model further showed that short-run disequilibria in public debt are rapidly adjusted toward the long-run equilibrium. The study concludes that the continued reliance on oil revenues and the high level of fiscal deficits constitute two main factors contributing to the exacerbation of public debt, thereby constraining the achievement of genuine fiscal sustainability. Accordingly, the study recommends diversifying revenue sources, strengthening fiscal discipline, and adopting an effective public debt management strategy that supports long-term financial stability.

This paper takes a close look at the Mukhyamantri Ladli Behna Yojana (MLBY), a key cash transfer program for women in Madhya Pradesh that started back in 2023. I dive into how it's affecting the state's finances and bigger economic picture, drawing from government budgets, RBI reports, and other sources up to early 2026. The costs have climbed from around ₹12,000 crore a year at the start to over ₹22,000 crore projected for 2026-27, thanks to higher payouts (now ₹1,500 monthly) and more beneficiaries (1.27 crore). The analysis shows this is linked to bigger fiscal deficits (hitting 4.1% of GSDP in 2024-25), rising debt (over ₹4.6 lakh crore), and less money for things like roads and schools. Sure, it's helped women feel more secure financially, but its election-timed design is putting real pressure on the budget, pulling funds away from growth-boosting investments and slowing long-term GDP. I suggest ways to tweak it—like tighter targeting and tying it to skills training—to keep the good parts without hurting the economy.

Unlocking India’s green transition: how fiscal deficits, oil prices, and technological innovation shape carbon emissions

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of central bank independence (CBI), both de jure and de facto, on the fiscal deficit (FD) in the case of India from 1980–1981 to 2018–2019. With the level of financial development proxied by the ratio of private credit to government as a possible source of nonlinearity, this study explores the possibility of a non-linear association between the CBI and FD. Design/methodology/approach This study estimated a logistic smooth transit regression (LSTR) to uncover the possible nonlinearity. To quantify the de jure and de facto independence of the Central Bank of India, i.e. RBI, this study follows Jasmine et al. (2019) and Cukierman et al. (1992). Findings The results reported regime dependence of the effect of CBI on FD. In both the short and long run, FD and CBI are found to be positively related during a low financial development regime, and when the economy is in a high financial development regime, FD and CBI are found to be negatively related. Moreover, an increase in GDP growth rate is found to trim the FD, whereas an increase in trade openness, oil prices, and the central bank governor (TOR) turnover rate increases it. Practical implications The findings of this study highlight the significance of the level of financial development that enables the independent central bank to ensure discipline on the part of fiscal authorities and improve fiscal balances. Moreover, robust GDP growth, more de facto independence of the central bank, and less oil price inflation would be favourable to ensure improvements in fiscal balance. The results imply the significance of the level of financial development in making central bank independence a potent tool to ensure fiscal prudence. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, no study has been conducted to understand the non-linear impact of the independence of the Reserve Bank of India on the fiscal deficit in the case of the Indian economy, subject to the level of financial development. The non-linear results provide important input to policymakers regarding the relevance of the level of financial development to the effectiveness of central bank independence and fiscal prudence on the part of the government.

Renewable energy investments, climate mitigation technologies, productive capacity and fiscal policy challenges: Responsible resource production and consumption implications from top-10 resource exporting economies.

For Poland, Russia’s war in Ukraine represented a major downward shock to output and upward shock to inflation. However, the strong real wage growth and fiscal stimulus of recent years have driven a nearly full closing of the output gap. In addition, inflation has returned to target due to both appropriately tight monetary policy and a subsiding of external supply shocks. The main vulnerability that emerged from recent years is an increase in the fiscal deficit to a projected 7 percent of GDP in 2025. This has raised public debt to 59 percent of GDP, a 10 percentage point increase in two years.

This study aims to empirically examine the simultaneous effects of external debt and fiscal deficit on inflation in Indonesia using time series data from 1994 to 2023. The background of this research is the tendency of developing countries to face inflationary pressures not only from monetary factors but also from fiscal policies and reliance on external financing. The novelty of this study lies in its integrative approach that combines two strategic fiscal variables within a single empirical model an approach that is rarely examined simultaneously in the context of Indonesia. The method employed is Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression with robust standard errors and the Johansen cointegration test to identify long-term relationships among variables. The results indicate that external debt has a positive and significant effect on inflation, while the fiscal deficit is statistically insignificant. These findings suggest that inflationary pressures in Indonesia are more dominantly influenced by external factors rather than domestic fiscal deficits. Therefore, prudent management of external debt and a synergy between fiscal and monetary policies are crucial to maintaining price stability in the long run.

Background: Inflation in Nepal has remained high and volatile, exceeding levels considered optimal for sustained economic growth. While existing studies have primarily focused on traditional domestic economic factors, Nepal’s growing integration with the global economy and its history of political and economic shocks suggest that external and non-economic factors may also significantly influence its inflationary dynamics. This study addresses this research gap by investigating a broader set of potential determinants. Objectives: The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of both economic and non-economic factors on inflation in Nepal. It specifically aims to assess the roles of money supply, fiscal deficit, trade openness, India’s wholesale price index (WPI), the output gap, the policy shift to liberalization, and periods of unusual circumstances. Methods: The study employs an Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration using annual time-series data from 1975 to 2022. Dummy variables are incorporated to capture the effects of the post-1990 liberalization policy regime (D1) and unusual circumstances such as conflict and natural disasters (D2). Diagnostic and stability tests ensure the robustness of the model. Findings: The results confirm a long-run cointegrating relationship among the variables. In the long run, money supply, trade openness, and India’s WPI have a significant positive impact on inflation in Nepal. The shift to a liberalization policy regime is associated with a significant reduction in inflation. Conversely, the fiscal deficit, output gap, and dummy for unusual circumstances are found to be statistically insignificant in explaining inflationary trends. Conclusion: Inflation in Nepal is determined by a mix of internal monetary factors, external trade-linked factors, and policy regime changes. Monetary policy remains essential for price stability. To curb imported inflation and enhance resilience, policies should focus on boosting domestic productive capacity through import substitution, trade diversification, and fostering a stable investment climate. Novelty: This study contributes to the literature by being among the first in the Nepalese context to empirically incorporate and test the impact of trade openness, the output gap, and qualitative non-economic factors (policy regime change and unusual circumstances) within a unified ARDL framework, moving beyond the conventional analysis of traditional variables.

This research aims to analyze the relationship between oil shocks and the deficit in the Iraqi general budget for the period (2010–2025). To achieve this, standard economic models (especially the ARDL self-regression model) have been used to estimate the impact of oil price fluctuations on the gap between revenues and public expenditures. Preliminary results indicate that oil price fluctuations have a statistically significant effect on the level of fiscal deficits In Iraq, traditional fiscal policies are insufficient to insulate public finances from the impact of oil shocks. The research concludes that there is a need to diversify public revenue sources and strengthen financial risk management tools to counter oil dependence.

The traditional categorization of human knowledge into distinct silos such as finance, economics, sociology, and political science has increasingly demonstrated an inability to account for the non-linear, high-velocity disruptions of the twenty-first century. Conventional metrics, most notably Gross Domestic Product (GDP), fiscal deficits, and inflation rates, are characterized by a "Kinetic Bias," focusing on surface-level outputs while remaining blind to the foundational sociological shifts occurring within the deep layers of human organization. The failures of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis highlight a systemic "Latency Gap" between the onset of instability and the arrival of institutional corrective mechanisms. To bridge this gap, this report introduces the next evolutionary phase of the Hierarchical Flux Theory (HFT): a new academic discipline termed Systronomy Economics(Systronomics) . Systronomics is defined as the integrated study of systemic interdependence across thirteen hierarchical layers of organization, ranging from the individual to global civilization. Unlike traditional socio-economics, which often views social issues as external variables affecting an economic core, Systronomy Economics posits that social, economical, political, financial, and external geopolitical events—such as war, international law violations, and human rights disasters in regions like Palestine and Sudan—are inseparable components of a single, fluid ecosystem. The core of this field is the "Tipping Point Cascade," a theoretical framework suggesting that a system's stability is not determined by its largest or most visible components, but by its most vulnerable, interconnected points.

The present paper analyzes the transitional dynamics of the government-debt-to-GDP ratio in an economy with constant interest rates, economic growth, and fiscal deficit growth. By explicitly modeling the joint evolution of government debt, fiscal deficits, and GDP, the present paper derives closed-form expressions for the debt-to-GDP ratio and characterizes its dynamic behavior. The analysis shows that even when standard long-run sustainability conditions—such as an interest rate lower than the economic growth rate—are satisfied, the debt-to-GDP ratio need not evolve monotonically. Instead, it may exhibit a single-peaked trajectory, rising temporarily before converging in the long run. The present paper identifies precise conditions under which such non-monotonic dynamics arise and illustrates them with numerical examples.

Two main perspectives exist regarding the interaction between fiscal deficits and expansionary monetary policy. The first perspective argues that fiscal deficits raise interest rates, thereby increasing interest payments and complicating monetary stabilization efforts. The second posits that expansionary monetary policy enhances nominal GDP growth, which in turn reduces the government debt-to-GDP ratio and strengthens the fiscal position. Using panel data from the IMF World Economic Outlook covering advanced economies between 1980 and 2025, this study empirically evaluates which perspective is more consistent with observed data, while accounting for the dynamics of tax revenues, government expenditures, interest rates, and nominal GDP growth. Empirical evidence indicates that moderate monetary expansion—raising nominal GDP—tends to stabilize budget deficits, as government revenues generally outpace expenditures and interest rates do not increase proportionally with nominal growth. These results are further illustrated through case studies of Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The contemporary global landscape, characterised by the systemic dissolution of long-standing regimes and the concurrent rise of leaderless youth movements (GenZ Protest), requires a departure from traditional geopolitical analysis. This thesis introduces the next evolutionary phase of the Hierarchical Flux Theory (HFT), shifting from descriptive sociology to a predictive mathematical framework: the Sovereign Stability Index (SSI). Traditional economic indicators, such as GDP growth and fiscal deficits, are increasingly failing to predict regime collapses because they are "Kinetic Biased"—monitoring surface-level outputs while remaining blind to the Sociological Flux occurring at the foundational layers of human organisation. By analysing a thirteen-layer hierarchy of civilisation (L1–L13), this study maps the mechanics of the 2020–2026 global upheavals, including the "Asian Spring" and the January 2026 U.S. withdrawal from international organisations. We demonstrate that civilizational perpetuity is a function of the ratio between foundational unity and elite extraction. The paper provides a diagnostic manual for the 03$ Strategist to engineer systems that are "un-shortable" by predatory elite networks.

The investigation reveals that tax revenue forms more than 80% of government income, with VAT alongside income taxes and customs and excise duties serving as primary sources. The 1997 introduction of VAT resulted in it now representing 32. Tax revenue from income tax stands at 4% despite significant growth because exemptions, such as agricultural income, keep it limited. An intricate relationship emerges between tax revenue and GDP as the tax-to-GDP ratio climbs beyond 8. The percentage dropped from 65% in 1981/82 to 21%. The year 2020/21 recorded an 89% value. The persistent fiscal deficit in Nepal emerges from ongoing failures in tax administration combined with unequal policy frameworks. The investigation reveals that expanding the tax base alongside tax system digitisation and adjustments to essential goods VAT rates, combined with improved cross-border coordination, could enhance revenue collection. The study insists on the principle of progressive taxation, and calls for strengthening local government in addition to an enlightened public to attain a balanced development and obedience. Removing these discrepancies will allow Nepal to reduce its dependence on external borrowing while focusing on sustained economic development.

This study aims to review and synthesize the existing literature on the determinants of local government financial performance in Indonesia, with a particular focus on regions experiencing real fiscal deficits. Under the regional autonomy framework, local governments are required to manage their financial resources independently to support public services and regional development. However, many local governments continue to face fiscal challenges due to limited local revenue capacity and high dependence on central government transfers. Using a literature review approach, this study examines how Local Own-Source Revenue (PAD), capital expenditure, and audit opinion influence local government financial performance. Capital expenditure is also found to play a strategic role in enhancing financial performance through long-term investment in infrastructure, service quality, and economic productivity. Despite extensive empirical evidence, the literature reveals limited attention to the interaction of these factors within local governments experiencing real fiscal deficits. This review highlights the need for more focused analysis in fiscally constrained regions and provides a conceptual foundation for future empirical research aimed at improving sustainable regional financial management.

This study investigates the twin deficit hypothesis, which explores the relationship between fiscal deficits and current account deficits in the context of the G7 nations from 1999 to 2024. This study aims to determine whether rising fiscal deficits lead to higher current account deficits as suggested by Keynesian theory, or if other factors like exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation play a more significant role. Using annual data and advanced econometric methods like the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality tests, the analysis evaluates the short-run and long-run dynamics between deficits, monetary variables (broad/narrow money), interest rates, exchange rates, and inflation (CPI). The results of the study confirm the twin deficit hypothesis, showing that a 1% increase in fiscal deficit increases the current account deficit by 0.45%. However, the results also highlight nuanced effects, meaning higher interest rates reduce current account deficits by attracting foreign capital. On the other hand, exchange rate fluctuations and inflation show weaker, sometimes contradictory impacts. The study identifies structural issues like the delayed adjustment of trade balances (J-curve effect) and the dual role of money supply, where narrow money reduces deficits, but broad money increases them. Diagnostic tests, including stability checks (CUSUM/CUSUMSQ) and unit root tests, validate the model’s reliability, though some residuals exhibit non-normality and heteroscedasticity, suggesting areas for refinement. The findings identify the importance of aligning fiscal and trade policies, like fiscal consolidation, export diversification, and institutional reforms, for a more sustainable approach to managing twin deficits. Based on the study, it also adds valuable perspective to the ongoing debate by incorporating recent global shocks like the 2008 financial crisis and COVID-19, offering practical insight to policymakers into managing deficits without ignoring economic growth.

This study examines the long- and short-run effects of monetary policy instruments on inflation in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024 using annual time series data and ARDL modelling approach. The bounds test confirms a stable long-run relationship. The findings reveal a persistent underlying inflationary trend of 9.35% annually, underscoring the role of structural factors. In the long run, only the liquidity ratio exerts a significant, negative influence on inflation, confirming its potency as a direct monetary control tool. The monetary policy rate, while correctly signed, is statistically insignificant, indicating a weakened interest rate transmission channel. Counterintuitively, the Treasury bill rate shows a marginally significant positive long-run association with inflation, suggestive of fiscal dominance and deficit monetization. Short-run dynamics are characterized by strong inflationary inertia and a complex, positive impact of the lagged liquidity ratio. The error correction term of -0.96 indicates a rapid 96% adjustment to equilibrium. The study concludes that while the liquidity ratio is effective for long-term inflation control, achieving price stability in Nigeria requires complementary fiscal and structural reforms to address foundational pressures and enhance monetary policy transmission.

Purpose – This study provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between fiscal deficits, monetary expansion, and inflation in Uganda using quarterly data from 2007 to 2020. It seeks to determine both the short- and long-run drivers of inflation and establish causal relationships among the variables. Methodology – The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach was employed to estimate short- and long-run effects, while Granger causality tests were used to examine causal links. Diagnostic and stability tests were applied to validate the robustness of the model. Findings – The results demonstrate that, in the long-run, money supply (0.33), fiscal deficit (0.28), and exchange rate (0.32) significantly increase inflation, while GDP (–0.27) and interest rate (–0.018) reduce it. Terms of trade were insignificant. In the short run, both fiscal deficit and money supply exert positive and significant effects on inflation. The error correction term indicates that 67% of disequilibrium is corrected within a quarter. Granger causality results confirm unidirectional causality running from fiscal deficit and money supply to inflation. Conclusion – The study concludes that fiscal deficit and money supply are the primary sources of inflation in Uganda, while GDP growth helps stabilize prices. Effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policy is essential. Policymakers should reduce fiscal deficits, regulate money supply, and stabilize the exchange rate, while promoting growth-enhancing strategies to ensure long-term price stability. Keywords: Inflation, fiscal deficit, money supply, ARDL, Uganda JEL Codes: H62, E51, E31