Federal Disaster Assistance Research Articles

Who Is Perceived as Deserving? How Social Identities Shape Attitudes about Disaster Assistance in the United States

ABSTRACT Research has shown that as the size of government assistance programs grow, and the recipients of such programs are increasingly non-white and/or non-citizen, public support for them declines. Our study examines this phenomenon on the question of deservingness in federal disaster assistance. Using a 2018 survey experiment that leverages two devastating hurricanes—Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Harvey—that hit different parts of the United States in 2017, we explore how the social identities of race/ethnicity and partisanship affect attitudes about disaster deservingness. Our results demonstrate that although federal disaster assistance has broad support, it is contingent on perceptions about the disaster victim and the type of assistance. Respondents were less likely to support disaster assistance to Hurricane Maria–affected people than those affected by Hurricane Harvey. Moreover, white and Republican respondents were more likely to favor market-based assistance whereas race-/ethnic-minority and Democratic respondents were more likely to support more generous forms of disaster assistance. These findings have important implications for the allocation of disaster funds as climate change intensifies and the frequency of billion-dollar disaster events increases. This is exacerbated by political polarization and heightened social vulnerability due to changing population demographics.

The Unequal Impact of Disasters: Assessing the Interplay Between Social Vulnerability, Public Assistance, Flood Insurance, and Migration in the U.S

Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes with intense rainfall and storm surges, are posing increasing challenges to local communities worldwide. These hazards not only result in substantial property damage but also lead to significant population displacement. Federal disaster assistance programs are crucial for providing financial support for disaster response and recovery, but the allocation of these resources often unequal due to the complex interplay of environmental, social, and institutional factors. Relying on datasets collected from diverse sources, this study employs a structural equation model to explore the complex relationships between disaster damage (DD), social vulnerability (SV), public disaster assistance (PDA), the national flood insurance (NFI), and population migration (PM) across counties in the contiguous US. Our findings reveal that communities with lower SV tend to experience higher levels of DD across US counties. SV is negatively associated with PM, PDA, and NFI, both directly and indirectly. Furthermore, PDA is positively linked to PM, whereas DD has a direct negative effect on PM but an indirect positive effect through PDA.

Assessing social equity of federal disaster aid distribution: A nationwide analysis.

In this study, we conduct the first comprehensive, nationwide assessment of social equity performance of multiple federal post- and pre-disaster assistance programs that differ in targeted recipients, project types, forms of aid, and funding requirements. We draw on the social equity and distributive justice theory to develop and test a set of hypotheses on the influence of program design and specificity on their aid distributional patterns and equity performance. The analysis uses panel data of about 3000 US counties to examine the relationship between a county's receipt of federal assistance and its recent disaster damage, socioeconomic, demographic, political, local government, and geographic characteristics in a two-stage random effects Tobit model. Expectedly, we find that post-disaster grants are largely driven by recent disaster damage, while damage is simultaneously influenced by local socioeconomic conditions. For all disaster programs, disproportionately more federal aid is allocated to populous counties. For programs geared toward state and local governments and targeting community recovery and mitigation, more aid is received by counties with better socioeconomic conditions. Conversely, for programs targeting individual relief and recovery, more aid is given to counties with lower incomes and greater social vulnerability. Results also indicate that counties located in high-risk regions receive greater outlays. These findings shed light on the varying degrees of social equity of federal disaster assistance programs tied to their cost-share requirement, funding caps, and inherent complexity of application procedures.

Filling the blindspots: Assessing distributive equity in fund allocation of Florida's local housing program for disaster recovery

Despite the role of local assistance in addressing households' disaster recovery needs, few studies have examined the role of localized programs in filling the gaps that might exist in federal programs. To address the question of whether local recovery funds distribute resources to socially vulnerable neighborhoods and how local assistance fits into the broader federal disaster assistance landscape, we take Florida's State Housing Initiatives Partnership (SHIP) program as a case study. The SHIP program can help fill neighborhood-level gaps left by the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Individual Assistance program by aiding neighborhoods with the higher proportions of 1) those who did not receive federal assistance or 2) those who had residual damages not fully covered by federal assistance. The study finds that SHIP funds typically flow into socially vulnerable neighborhoods with a higher proportion of Black and Hispanic residents, even without specific social or racial equity measures built into program regulations. The study highlights the importance of balancing the consistency of fundamental rules and having flexibility in distributing funds.

Navigating Federal Disaster Assistance Eligibility and Special Accommodations: The Case of Hurricane Harvey

Navigating Federal Disaster Assistance Eligibility and Special Accommodations: The Case of Hurricane Harvey

Critical Review of National Flood Policy Outcomes

Abstract Populations are increasingly exposed to natural hazards due to expanding development and climate change. This exposure is exacerbated by sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors limiting resources for disaster mitigation and recovery. Federal disaster assistance is crucial for communities in the wake of catastrophic events by supplementing local resources. However, recent research suggests that federal disaster assistance may exacerbate existing inequality across social groups. The most pervasive and costliest disaster in the United States is flooding. The federal government maintains multiple programs supporting flood mitigation and recovery, yet a comprehensive understanding of how these programs may foster inequitable outcomes is lacking. This paper uses a systematic review of federal flood policy literature over the last decade to fill this gap and identify patterns that may contribute to inequitable outcomes. Results suggest that despite over 100 flood-related disasters occurring over the past decade, the effectiveness of flood policies across social groups is relatively unstudied. And when studied, federal policies themselves do not explicitly lead to inequitable outcomes. Instead, we conclude that policies prioritize equality over equity and do not overcome systematic oppressive and racist decision-making. These findings further the understanding that social vulnerability to natural hazards is a complex and contextual issue.

A simple declarative model of the Federal Disaster Assistance Policy - modelling and measuring transparency

A simple declarative model of the Federal Disaster Assistance Policy - modelling and measuring transparency

Weathering an Unexpected Financial Shock: The Role of Federal Disaster Assistance on Household Finance and Business Survival

First, we document the impact of being hit by a devastating tornado on household finance and business survival. The tornado paths are random and cannot be predicted using risk information. Individuals in severely damaged census blocks have a small reduction in debt and no change in bill delinquency. The business establishment survival rate declines by 9%. Second, we provide insight on the role of federal disaster assistance, which includes direct cash assistance to disaster victims and grants to repair public infrastructure, in mitigating the shock. Individuals in severely damaged blocks have 30% less credit card debt post-disaster when disaster aid is available. Migration from damaged blocks increases. Credit-constrained victims have lower bill delinquency and increase consumption. Disaster assistance is a place-based policy and results in 9% more establishments and 14% more employees post-disaster in the average-damage neighborhood. These effects are concentrated among small nonmanufacturing establishments that rely on local demand.

Assessing distributive inequities in FEMA's Disaster recovery assistance fund allocation

Social vulnerability is significant in differential disaster impacts and outcomes and has been shown to influence the pace and progression of post-disaster recovery processes. Various disaster assistance programs - designed to support individual survivors, states, local governments, non-governmental entities, and businesses - may be distributing funds inequitably because they are not accounting for social vulnerabilities. One such program, the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Individuals and Households Program (IHP) program supports homeowners and renters for rental, repair, replacement, and permanent housing construction of disaster-damaged houses as well as providing other needs assistance to disaster victims with disaster-related non-housing expenses. To date, limited exploration connecting underlying social vulnerabilities and distribution of federal disaster assistance funds has provided only an incomplete understanding of the connections between underlying socio-economic conditions and often inequitable federal recovery assistance distribution. We analyzed county-level IHP assistance provided to homeowners between 2010 and 2018 and explored the relationships between fund distribution and social vulnerability indicators while controlling for total damages. Employing ordinary least squares regression analysis, we assessed links between Total Assistance, Housing Repair/Replace Assistance and Other Needs Assistance against social vulnerability variables from the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI) framework. Results highlight specific social vulnerability variables influencing FEMA's distribution of disaster recovery assistance with race/ethnicity-related variables as the most frequent (regularly negative) influence on recovery fund receipt. Findings suggest that disaster assistance receipt is linked to underlying social vulnerability. As such, greater attention to and inclusion of social vulnerabilities would lead to more equitable distribution of disaster recovery funds.

Engineered coastal berm-dune renourishment in New Jersey: can coastal communities continue to hold the line?

Following the significant coastal changes caused by Hurricane Sandy in 2012, engineered berm-dunes were constructed along the New Jersey coastline to enhance protection from future storms. Following construction, property values on Long Beach Island, NJ, increased in three beachfront communities. The projects were financed entirely through federal disaster assistance, but the percentage of future maintenance costs must be covered by local communities. Whether communities are willing or capable of financially contributing to maintenance remains unclear because (i) some homeowners prefer ocean views over the protection afforded by the berm-dune structures, and (ii) stakeholder risk perceptions can change over time. To investigate the relationships between berm-dune geometries, values of coastal protection, and ocean view values, we developed a geoeconomic model of the natural and anthropogenic processes that shape beach and dune morphology. The model results suggest that coastal communities may exhibit significant differences in their capabilities to maintain engineered dunes depending on stakeholder wealth and risk perception. In particular, communities with strong preferences for ocean views are less likely to maintain large-scale berm-dune structures over the long term. If these structures are abandoned, the vulnerability of the coast to future storms will increase.

A better approach to managing COVID-19 and its effects.

In the COVID-19 pandemic, treatment of the virus, prevention of its spread, and dealing with its secondary effects on the economy and society have been left to the states and local governments, businesses and other public and private institutions, with the federal government furnishing only feeble support to the primary responders. I argue that COVID-19 is a national disaster, and as such, the federal government should have mounted a massive response under the auspices of the National Response Framework and the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act. During my 30-year career administering federal disaster assistance, I worked throughout the United States and its territories in the Pacific and the Caribbean. I participated in many imaginative uses of the federal disaster authorities and programs to address serious and unique problems faced by people and their local, state, or territorial governments. During my disaster relief career, the nation never faced a disaster impacting every geographic area and segment of society as COVID-19 has. While the 9/11 attacks shocked the nation, the destruction was restricted to small areas of two cities, and the nation-wide cessation of air travel and other business and social disruptions were short-lived. More than ever before, the extent and severity of the disastrous effects of COVID-19 called for maximal engagement of the National Response Framework to mobilize the combined resources of the country to overcome multiple problems of astounding complexity.

Statistical Seismology and Communication of the USGS Operational Aftershock Forecasts for the 30 November 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, Earthquake

AbstractThe U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a national capability for aftershock forecasting after significant earthquakes. Use of this capability began in August 2018, and the 30 November 2018 Mw 7.1 Anchorage, Alaska, earthquake provided the first opportunity to apply this capability to a damaging earthquake in an urban area of the United States of America and observe how the forecast was discussed in the media. During this sequence, the forecasts were issued by a seismologist using interactive software that implements the Reasenberg and Jones (1989) model as updated in Page et al. (2016). The forecasts are communicated with a tiered template that provides basic information first before providing a more detailed numerical forecast and are posted on the mainshock’s event page on the USGS earthquake program. Experience from the Anchorage sequence showed that the process worked well, and the first forecast was issued only 54 min after the mainshock occurred. Updates over the coming days, weeks, and months adapted the forecast model from the initial generic parameters for the seismotectonic region to Bayesian and sequence‐specific models. Media reports accurately reported the forecast, demonstrating that the forecast template was successful except for a few reports that incorrectly merged the probability of one or more events in a given time–magnitude window with the likely range of the number of events. Changes to the template have been made to prevent that confusion in the future. We also released a special report on the possible duration of the sequence to assist in the federal disaster declaration and assistance process. Both our standard forecasts and this special report would benefit from more rapid determination of a sequence‐specific decay rate.

Protecting against disaster risks: Why insurance and prevention may be complements

We examine mechanisms as to why insurance and individual risk reduction activities are complements instead of substitutes. We use data on flood risk reduction activities and flood insurance purchases by surveying more than 1000 homeowners in New York City after they experienced Hurricane Sandy. Insurance is a complement to loss reduction measures undertaken well before the threat of suffering a loss, which is the opposite of a moral hazard effect of insurance coverage. In contrast, insurance acts as a substitute for emergency preparedness measures that can be taken when a loss is imminent, which implies that financial incentives or regulations are needed to encourage insured people to take these measures. We find that mechanisms leading to preferred risk selection are related to past flood damage and a crowding out effect of federal disaster assistance as well as behavioral motivations to reduce risk.

Deciding to Apply for Federal Disaster Assistance: A Preliminary Investigation of Disaster Decision-Making using a Bounded Rationality Framework

AbstractAmong disaster victims, the decision to apply for assistance with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is not straight forward. It is typically affected a variety of factors beyond individual demographic characteristics. Using Texas in the aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, this study utilizes bounded rationality as a theoretical framework for exploring what may affect the decision to apply for individual assistance with FEMA. A representative sample of generally affected individuals and a subsample of individuals with home damage are used to investigate various factors thought to be important in decision-making and compare differences between the groups. As a byproduct of the analysis, it is observed that although the loss of employment and being able to rely on one’s immediate network is a significant predictor of applying for aid among individuals with home damage, these variables are not significant among those that were generally affected. Recommendations for future research are provided to enhance our understanding of decision-making in the aftermath of disasters.

Flooding and finances: Hurricane Harvey’s impact on consumer credit

This article examines consumers? borrowing behavior and debt levels in the wake of Hurricane Harvey. We find that high levels of flooding from Harvey were associated with modest increases in auto loan balances, but moderate decreases in mortgage balances. In general, the storm did not hurt consumers? credit access according to the limited measures we investigate. These results are influenced by a number of factors, including federal disaster assistance, insurance payouts, and creditors permitting temporary postponements in loan payments, with such delays not being reported to credit bureaus.

The challenge of integrated flood risk governance: case studies in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada

ABSTRACTThis is an institutional study of the policy instruments that respond to flood for agricultural producers and their community. Two case studies in Saskatchewan and Alberta, Canada were conducted through a review of secondary sources and semi-structured qualitative interviews to assess instruments based on the perceptions of agricultural producers and people involved in flood governance. Recent changes reducing federal government emergency training services for local responders have occurred at the same time that federal government disaster assistance payments to provinces and local communities have increased dramatically. Financial instruments are of key importance but increased attention should be paid to management instruments including participatory resilient emergency flood planning. Fragmentation in flood instruments and planning, together with a myopic time frame that does not include climate change considerations, leaves the study communities and agricultural producers vulnerable. Disparate communities not operating cohesively as districts leave one case study area vulnerable. These deficiencies are remediable by implementing appropriate missing instruments and comprehensive institutional flood planning.

DOES THE SAMARITAN'S DILEMMA MATTER? EVIDENCE FROM U.S. AGRICULTURE

The Samaritan's dilemma posits a downside to charity: recipients may rely on free aid instead of their own efforts. Anecdotally, the expectation of free assistance is thought to be important for decisions about insurance and risky behavior in numerous settings, but reliable empirical evidence is scarce. We estimate whether the Samaritan's dilemma exists in U.S. agriculture, where both private crop insurance and frequent federal disaster assistance are present. We find that bailout expectations are qualitatively and quantitatively important for the insurance decision. Furthermore, aid expectations reduce both expenditure on farm inputs and subsequent crop revenue. (JEL D72, H84, Q18)

Small Business Disaster Assistance

When a disaster hits, it affects the entire community. A small business is especially vulnerable because it does not necessarily have the resources to respond to a disaster or to catastrophic damage. In fact, it is reported that approximately 25 percent of small businesses that close due to a disaster never reopen, and 40 percent of small businesses hit directly by a serious natural disaster do not recover. This is true regardless of what kind of disaster is involved, from a hurricane, a tornado, an earthquake, flooding, winter storms, or even civil unrest or terrorism. Small businesses experience a number of different problems when a disaster hits. As expected, there is the physical damage that results from a disaster, which is a more serious issue when the business is not insured or is underinsured for the damage. However, the most serious and critical problem for small businesses is the loss of profits due to closure or loss of customers as a result of a disaster. Sixty-two percent of businesses report the loss of sales as their main problem after a disaster. Unfortunately, a large percent of businesses does not carry insurance to cover continuing operations. Fortunately, some economic assistance is available to small businesses that have suffered losses due to disasters. Immediate disaster assistance is led by state governments, which is complemented with federal assistance for disasters that qualify. Federal disaster assistance, which is generally the same regardless of the location and form of a disaster, is discussed first in the Article. This is followed by a discussion of state disaster assistance, using the state of Florida to exemplify two approaches taken by state government to provide small-business disaster relief.

Navigating Disaster: An Empirical Study of Federal Assistance Following Hurricane Sandy

Federal disaster assistance should only compensate disaster victims for the damage sustained. Using zip code-level data on federal disaster assistance, this paper examines the FEMA Individuals and Households Program following Hurricane Sandy. We show that the extent of the damage does appear to explain much of the differences in the size of the federal disaster award that individuals receive. However, other factors, including percentage of foreign-born and the educational attainment levels of individuals in a community, also explain damage assessments and assistance levels. We argue that complexities in the application process may have disadvantaged foreign-born and less educated applicants.

Does federal disaster assistance crowd out flood insurance?

We empirically analyze whether federal disaster aid crowds out household purchase of disaster insurance. We combine data on annual household flood insurance purchases for the United States over the period 2000–2011 with data from the two main U.S. post-disaster federal aid programs (FEMA's Individual Assistance grants and SBA's low interest disaster loans). Estimating both fixed-effects and instrumental variable models to account for the endogeneity of disaster assistance grants, we find that receiving individual assistance grants decreases the average quantity of insurance purchased the following year by between $4000 and $5000. The reduction we find is roughly 3% of the mean insurance coverage in the sample but larger than the average flood-related IA grant in our sample, which is $2984. IA is currently limited and larger grants could have different impacts. The crowding out is on the intensive margin; we find no impact on take-up rates, likely because there is a requirement that recipients of disaster aid purchase an insurance policy. We do not know how take-up rates might change without such a requirement. Low interest post-disaster government loans have no systematic effect on insurance purchases.