Fall Of Societies Research Articles

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal.

Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

AN EARLY 3D‐MAP OF A TERRITORY? THE BRONZE AGE CARVED SLAB FROM SAINT‐BÉLEC, LEUHAN (BRITTANY, FRANCE)

SummaryWhile early maps are known from all over the world, the key questions always involve: what exactly do they show? And what spatial extent do they cover? In this context, we recently used 3D‐modelling to re‐examine a carved stone slab datable to the Early Bronze Age (c.2150–1600 BC) that was found at Saint‐Bélec in Brittany. We show that the surface of the slab had been shaped in three dimensions to represent the relief of the surrounding landscape in which it was found, while several engraved motifs on it evoke contemporary structures known archaeologically. We argue that the Saint‐Bélec slab represents an area of c.545 km2 corresponding to the extent of a prehistoric political entity. The carving and subsequent burying of the slab can be linked to the postulated rise and fall of hierarchical societies and raises many wider questions about socio‐economic structures in temperate Europe at that time.

Signals of Holocene climate transition amplified by anthropogenic land-use changes in the westerly–Indian monsoon realm

Abstract. The Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall is the lifeline for people living on the Indian subcontinent today and was possibly the driver of the rise and fall of early agricultural societies in the past. The intensity and position of the ISM have shifted in response to orbitally forced thermal land–ocean contrasts. At the northwestern monsoon margins, interactions between the subtropical westerly jet (STWJ) and the ISM constitute a tipping element in the Earth's climate system because their non-linear interaction may be a first-order influence on rainfall. We reconstructed marine sea surface temperature (SST), supply of terrestrial material and vegetation changes from a very well-dated sediment core from the northern Arabian Sea to reconstruct the STWJ–ISM interaction. The Holocene record (from 11 000 years) shows a distinct, but gradual, southward displacement of the ISM in the Early to Mid-Holocene, increasingly punctuated by phases of intensified STWJ events that are coeval with interruptions of North Atlantic overturning circulation (Bond events). The effects of the non-linear interactions culminate between 4.6 and 3 ka BP, marking a climatic transition period during which the ISM shifted southwards and the influence of STWJ became prominent. The lithogenic matter input shows an up to 4-fold increase after this time period, probably related to the strengthened influence of agricultural activities of the Indus civilization, with enhanced erosion of soils. This anthropogenic land-use change is amplifying the impact of Bond events and adding to the marine sedimentation rates adjacent to the continent.

Collapse and continuity: A multi-proxy reconstruction of settlement organization and population trajectories in the Northern Fertile Crescent during the 4.2kya Rapid Climate Change event.

The rise and fall of ancient societies have been attributed to rapid climate change events. One of the most discussed of these is the 4.2kya event, a period of increased aridity and cooling posited as the cause of societal changes across the globe, including the collapse of the Akkadian Empire in Mesopotamia. Studies seeking to correlate social and climatic changes around the 4.2kya event have tended to focus either on highly localized analyses of specific sites or surveys or more synthetic overviews at pan-continental scales, and temporally on the event and its aftermath. Here we take an empirical approach at a large spatial scale to investigate trends in population and settlement organization across the entirety of Northern Fertile Crescent (Northern Mesopotamia and the Northern Levant) from 6,000 to 3,000 cal BP. We use Summed Probability Distributions of radiocarbon dates and data from eighteen archaeological surveys as proxies for population, and a dataset of all settlements over ten hectares in size as a proxy for the degree of urbanization. The goal is to examine the spatial and temporal impact of the 4.2kya event and to contextualize it within longer term patterns of settlement. We find that negative trends are visible during the event horizon in all three proxies. However, these occur against a long-term trend of increased population and urbanization supported through unsustainable overshoot and the exploitation of a drier zone with increased risk of crop failure. We argue that the 4.2kya event occurred during a period of unprecedented urban and rural growth which may have been unsustainable even without an exogenous climate forcing.

A Paleogenomic Reconstruction of the Deep Population History of the Andes

SummaryThere are many unanswered questions about the population history of the Central and South Central Andes, particularly regarding the impact of large-scale societies, such as the Moche, Wari, Tiwanaku, and Inca. We assembled genome-wide data on 89 individuals dating from ∼9,000-500 years ago (BP), with a particular focus on the period of the rise and fall of state societies. Today’s genetic structure began to develop by 5,800 BP, followed by bi-directional gene flow between the North and South Highlands, and between the Highlands and Coast. We detect minimal admixture among neighboring groups between ∼2,000–500 BP, although we do detect cosmopolitanism (people of diverse ancestries living side-by-side) in the heartlands of the Tiwanaku and Inca polities. We also highlight cases of long-range mobility connecting the Andes to Argentina and the Northwest Andes to the Amazon Basin.Video

Rise and fall of complex societies in the Yiluo region, North China: The spatial and temporal changes

The Yiluo region in the middle Yellow River has been a core area of archaeological inquiry for understanding the origins of the first dynastic states in China. In order to investigate the social changes on a regional scale, a systematic full-coverage regional survey project was carried out from 1997 to 2018, covering an area of 1183 km2 in the Yiluo region. This paper analyzes the settlement patterns of 451 sites of the Neolithic and Bronze Ages (ca. 6000–200 cal. BC), providing the most comprehensive pictures yet, of the spatial and temporal relationships of settlement distribution during a nearly 6000-year time span. The paper demonstrates a developmental trajectory from a landscape dotted with scattered, small Neolithic villages to a highly centralized dynastic heartland in early Chinese civilization. The evolutionary pathways were not straightforward, but were characterized by episodic fluctuations in population density, and the rise and fall of complex societies. Holocene climatic fluctuations may have played significant roles affecting human activities, but it is the human responses to external challenges in various ways that ultimately determined the trajectories of social evolution.

The fall of Human societies: Causes and Solutions (In the Light of Quranic Teachings)

The development and accomplishment of Islamic societies is a matter of great importance. The significance and the need of this issue is not only a natural desire but it is the requirement of human societies. To proceed on the way of accomplishment and progress is a natural desire that Allah Almighty has inserted into human beings. The individual perfection of character and person is guaranty of an exemplary developed society that is the ultimate wish of Islam. In this regard, Allah Almighty has described the causes of the destruction of the nations of earlier prophets. Such narrations are shown up to the coming nations so that they could avoid such negligence. Quran has described these events as lessons to achieve the perfection in personal as well as in collective, social life.Today the development of science and technology is considered the perfection and the height of the progress of mankind. But the concept of human progress and perfection is different in the light of holy Quran. Islam considers these developments the part of human necessities in their worldly lives not the ultimate achievement that is required for a society that possesses human characteristics. According to Quran the respect of human values is the dire need of a peaceful and privileged society.

Consumer Benefits From EU Trade Liberalization: How Much Did We Save Since the Uruguay Round?

Throughout human history, trade remained a key factor in explaining the economic rise and fall of societies and nations. Despite the perennial nature of international trade in our societies and the ample evidence in favour of its importance, the benefits from trade for individual consumers are still subject to misunderstandings. Using a novel technique matching very detailed household consumption and import data, we quantify one narrow aspect of the multitude of consumer gains from trade - the tariff savings for EU households and consumers over the last two decades, as a result of multilateral and bilateral trade agreements. Overall, the total annual tariff savings for all EU households (if the pre-Uruguay Round tariffs continued to apply on today's imports) amount to around 60 billion euro.

Mediterranean archeology and environmental histories in the spotlight of the Anthropocene

AbstractThe last two decades have seen increasing scientific and humanistic research about anthropogenic impacts on earth systems such as climate, leading to a controversial proposal that we are living in an Anthropocene epoch, when humans have become unprecedented forces of global change. The status of the Anthropocene as a historiographical period poses an opportunity to consider how archeologists and historians conceive of environmental and social change in Mediterranean antiquity. Scholarship has tended to focus on regional landscapes or large‐scale climatic accounts of the rise and fall of societies and less on the politics and social dimensions of human–environment relationships. Although bridging the small and large scales of these interactions poses challenges, recent research on the island of Cyprus during the Archaic period highlights the possibilities of an archeological approach to the intersections between social and environmental Mediterranean histories and their material contexts.

Regionally Constant but Societally VariedBeyond the Nasca Lines: Ancient Life at La Tiza in the Peruvian Desert. By Christina A. Conlee. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2016.

Regionally Constant but Societally VariedBeyond the Nasca Lines: Ancient Life at La Tiza in the Peruvian Desert. By Christina A. Conlee. Gainesville: University Press of Florida, 2016.

Are we entering the age of involuntary degrowth? Promethean technologies and declining returns of innovation

Any reflections on an eventual transition towards a degrowth society have to take into account the current crisis in the dominant system and question whether the latter will be able to grow again or not. In order for the latter to happen, the role played by technological innovation is crucial. This paper starts by reconsidering Georgescu-Roegen’s definition of Promethean Techniques and Tainter’s principle of Declining Marginal Returns, with the aim of providing – within the common framework of the theory of complex systems - a sound theoretical basis for the analysis of the rise and fall of complex societies. The main purpose is to verify whether, after the last Promethean revolution, a “Great Wave” emerged or not. The second part of the paper presents an initial investigation into this hypothesis, using Total Factor Productivity growth as an indicator of (marginal) returns on innovation (1750–2015). Despite the limitations implicit in the use of this indicator, data show three cycles of innovation, corresponding to the first, second and third industrial revolutions, but of different magnitude and duration. In particular, the whole cycle that began with the first industrial revolution in England around 1750, reached a peak in the U.S. in the nineteen-thirties and later declined, following a trend that basically confirms the Great Wave hypothesis. Even recent innovations resulting from the ICT revolution, however considerable, do not seem capable of counteracting this long-term trend. Data on returns on innovation seem, therefore, to be coherent with evidence provided by research in other fields (energy, mineral resources, agriculture, health, education and scientific research), showing that advanced capitalist societies have entered a phase of declining marginal returns - or involuntary degrowth - with possible major effects on the system’s capacity to maintain its present institutional framework.

Ein Superstar der Neueren Finnischen Prosa

Abstract The article is devoted to Sofi Oksanen, one of the most recognizable Finnish authors of the young generation whose literary production has been an unbroken streak of success for the last ten years. It addresses in particular her groundbreaking novel Purge (Puhdistus). In the analysis, the article focuses first and foremost on the aspect of a woman’s corporeality as well as shame and exclusion resulting from sexual abuse. It is one of the central motifs in Osanen’s production. On the example of Aliide the writer depicts, from the feminist point of view, the effects of physical violence towards women used as an element of humiliation and oppression of a conquered nation. The metaphor of a woman’s body as an occupied country gives the novel a universal character and draws attention to the fact that destroying womanhood is a subtle and slow way to the fall of societies. Therefore the deeds of both women are not unambiguously condemned in the novel.

The onset of data-driven mental archeology.

The onset of data-driven mental archeology.

Cultural Collapse and System Survival Due to Environmental Modification

We consider a simple mathematical approach to the rise and fall of societies based on population growth and its effects on the environment, both beneficial and detrimental. We find that in any simple model of population dynamics with environmental coupling, stable cultures are impossible. Populations inevitably grow or decline exponentially. Further, if the parameters defining a civilisation are allowed to evolve towards an evolutionarily stable state, the only possible solutions are those where each culture ultimately declines. However, computer simulation with multiple competing cultures show that while each eventually collapses, some are always extant and the system is robust. In this broad class of models, individual death is a requirement for system survival.

Bill Schwab: at the cutting edge of trauma care

Bill Schwab: at the cutting edge of trauma care

Comparative Imperiology edited by Kimitaka Matsuzato (review)

Reviewed by: Comparative Imperiology edited by Kimitaka Matsuzato Krzysztof Brzechczyn (bio) Kimitaka Matsuzato (Ed.), Comparative Imperiology (Sapporo: Slavic Research Center, Hokaido University, 2010). 132 pp. ISBN: 978-4-938637-53-8. Imperiology is an interdisciplinary field being developed in a number of countries. One of its classics is a book by Samuel Eisenstadt titled The Political Systems of Empires. The Rise and Fall of the Historical Bureaucratic Societies. Analyzing political systems that emerged in the bureaucratic empires of Egypt, China, Rome, Byzantium, and early modern European countries, Eisenstadt demonstrates that the social and political structure that developed in bureaucratic empires was something intermediate between the traditional society and modern political systems. Bureaucracy in imperial political systems autonomizes itself and pursues its own goals, which leads to social conflicts and thus to the collapse of empires. The study assumes that the empire always generates a new social entity that cannot be divided into its elements, that differs from nonimperial societies, and that constitutes the object of study of modern imperiology. Japanese imperiology is a part of this international field. The collection of articles under review in Comparative Imperiology, edited by Kimitaka Matsuzato, includes “Introduction: Empire Studies in Japan” (Pp. 5–20) and five chapters written by different authors: “Recognized Legal Disorder: French Colonial Rule in Algeria c. 1840–1900” (Pp. 21–36, by Akihito Kudo); “The Biological Blowback of Empire? The Collapse of the Japanese Empire and the Influx of the ‘Deadly Environment’ 1945–1952” (Pp. 37–60, by Toshihiro Higuchi); “The Anatomy and Pathology of Empire: Three Balance Sheets of Russian and Soviet Banks” (Pp. 61–86, by Kazuhiko Yago); “The Qing Empire in the Central Eurasian Context: Its Structure of Rule as Seen from the Eight Banner System” (Pp. 87–108, by Kiyohiko Sugiyama); and “The Collapse of the Japanese Empire and the Normalization of Its Relations with South Korea (1945–1965): Repatriation, Reparations, and External Assets Reconsidered” (Pp. 109–29, by Toyomi Asano). In his “Introduction: Empire Studies in Japan,” Kimitaka Matsuzato offers a brief overview of the history of imperiology in Japan, characterizing its most significant schools of thought and research problems. The author defines imperiology as a “genre of historical science, in which historians appreciate empires for their own values, neither as some attribute to a certain stage of capitalist development nor as a background to national or [End Page 314] gender consciousness” (P. 6). Matsuzato claims that the renaissance of Japanese imperiology commenced in the 1980s. It was affected by the fall of the Leninist concept of imperialism and the appearance of new concepts: the world system theory, postcolonial studies, and the application of the constructivist concept of a historical narrative to analyze imperial systems. The second breakthrough in the development of Japanese imperiology was the end of the Cold War, which resulted in development of the ephemeral hegemony of the United States and the collapse of communism in the USSR. According to Matsuzato, the collapse of the Soviet empire: “did not result in democracy and respect for human rights in many of its successor nation-states” (P. 5).1 In the twenty-first century a significant role was played by the program of the Hokkaido University Slavic Research Center “Making a Discipline of Slavic Eurasian Studies,” carried out in 2003–8. At that time, the Slavic Research Center organized a number of conferences that became the basis of collective works published as subsequent volumes of the Slavic Eurasian Studies series.2 The book under review is a product of this collective enterprise of empire studies. Kimitaka Matsuzato distinguishes three fundamental research trends in Japanese imperiology: the global history school, the theory of composite monarchies, and the Central Eurasian school. The global history school was established as a result of overcoming the economic determinism characteristic of the early stage of development of world system theory. This notion emphasizes the autonomy of state structures in the global system. Empire development is a result of the peripheral and metropolitan interests of social and political elites, which – deprived of any choice – are forced to negotiate with each other. [End Page 315] Global history is represented by Shigeru Akita, the author of a book published in Japanese in 2003...

The archaeology of China: from the late Paleolithic to the early Bronze Age

1. Chinese archaeology: past, present, and future 2. Environment and ecology 3. Foragers and collectors in the Pleistocene-Holocene transition (24,000-9000 cal. BP) 4. Domestication of plants and animals 5. Neolithization: sedentism and food production in the Early Neolithic (7000-5000 BC) 6. Emergence of social inequality: the Middle Neolithic (5000-3000 BC) 7. Rise and fall of early complex societies: the Late Neolithic (3000-2000 BC) 8. Formation of early states in the Central Plain: Erlitou and Erligang (1900/1800-1250 BC) 9. Bronze cultures of the north frontiers and beyond during the early second millennium BC 10. The Late Shang dynasty and its neighbors (1250-1046 BC) 11. Chinese civilization in comparative perspective.

District Leadership that Works: Striking the Right Balance

District Leadership that Works: Striking the Right Balance

A quantitative philology of introspection

The cultural evolution of introspective thought has been recognized to undergo a drastic change during the middle of the first millennium BC. This period, known as the “Axial Age,” saw the birth of religions and philosophies still alive in modern culture, as well as the transition from orality to literacy—which led to the hypothesis of a link between introspection and literacy. Here we set out to examine the evolution of introspection in the Axial Age, studying the cultural record of the Greco-Roman and Judeo-Christian literary traditions. Using a statistical measure of semantic similarity, we identify a single “arrow of time” in the Old and New Testaments of the Bible, and a more complex non-monotonic dynamics in the Greco-Roman tradition reflecting the rise and fall of the respective societies. A comparable analysis of the twentieth century cultural record shows a steady increase in the incidence of introspective topics, punctuated by abrupt declines during and preceding the First and Second World Wars. Our results show that (a) it is possible to devise a consistent metric to quantify the history of a high-level concept such as introspection, cementing the path for a new quantitative philology and (b) to the extent that it is captured in the cultural record, the increased ability of human thought for self-reflection that the Axial Age brought about is still heavily determined by societal contingencies beyond the orality-literacy nexus.

Destroying the village to save it: corporate social responsibility, labour relations, and the rise and fall of American hegemony

The literature on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR), produced largely by American business school academics, has, over the last generation, ignored an empirical record of corporate irresponsibility, especially in the area of employment relations. This neglect is puzzling given the skepticism of previous generations of CSR scholars and the importance these placed on labour-management cooperation. Arrighi’s (1994) theory of the rise and fall of hegemonic societies can explain this shift in perspective. According to Arrighi, American global economic hegemony emerged a century ago powered by its multi-divisional corporations, but the extraordinary autonomy exercised by this organizational form stimulated demands for the responsible use of its economic power. When American hegemony was still new and based on industrial development, the discourse on CSR focused on ‘the labour question’ in order to insure productivity and social peace. As the nature of American hegemony expanded after World War II, academic views on appropriate corporate responsibilities broadened accordingly, and CSR embraced a pluralistic perspective capable of competing with other systems. Once American hegemony began its decline, and new competitive and financial pressures shook the stability of its institutions, the field of Business and Society adopted a managerialist version of CSR that relied on nonconsequentialist ethical abstractions. This contemporary perspective has had no measurable impact on corporate behaviour, and as American hegemony dissipates, any future version of CSR will necessarily be less ethnocentric, perhaps originating within other societies.