Extreme Weather-related Events Research Articles

Resilience enhancement of power distribution system using fixed and mobile emergency generators based on deep reinforcement learning

Growing extreme weather-related events have increased the need for a resilient emergency response in the Power Distribution Systems (PDSs). This paper proposes a novel restoration scheme that involves forming Micro-Grids (MGs) and dispatching Mobile Emergency Generators (MEGs) between them. Due to the PDS variability and extensive decision space, conventional model-based approaches aren't suitable for implementing the proposed scheme. Therefore, a model-free framework is designed to control the restoration process. The proposed problem is formulated as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) considering uncertainties associated with load profile, and renewable resources. Deep Q-Network (DQN), a fundamental algorithm in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL), is employed to solve the proposed MDP model. DQN algorithm can learn optimal control strategy by interacting with the simulated environment at the training phase and then deploy the learned policy in a real-world application. The main objective of the designed DQN model is to maximize the restored loads and ensure a high level of post-restoration reliability for Critical Loads (CLs). MATLAB software is considered as the simulated environment to perform power flow calculation and MEGs routing. The efficiency and applicability of the proposed method are evaluated by conducting experiments on the modified IEEE 13-bus, 37-bus, and 123-bus networks.

Cross-boundary risks of hinterland hazards to city infrastructure

Abstract Extreme weather-related events are showing how infrastructure disruptions in hinterlands can affect cities. This paper explores the risks to city infrastructure services including transportation, electricity, communication, fuel supply, water distribution, stormwater drainage, and food supply from hinterland hazards of fire, precipitation, post-fire debris flow, smoke, and flooding. There is a large and growing body of research that describes the vulnerabilities of infrastructures to climate hazards, yet this work has not systematically acknowledged the relationships and cross-governance challenges of protecting cities from remote disruptions. An evidence base is developed through a structured literature review that identifies city infrastructure vulnerabilities to hinterland hazards. Findings highlight diverse pathways from the initial hazard to the final impact on an infrastructure, demonstrating that impacts to hinterland infrastructure assets from hazards can cascade to city infrastructure. Beyond the value of describing the impact of hinterland hazards on urban infrastructure, the identified pathways can assist in informing cross-governance mitigation strategies. It may be the case that to protect cities, local governments invest in mitigating hazards in their hinterlands and supply chains.

Do first responders and populations perceive risks similarly? A comparative study of seven countries.

Risk perception illustrates the subjective evaluation of individuals concerning the characteristics, severity, and capacity to cope with potential hazards. Risk perception influences attitudes and actions individuals take to protect themselves from future threats. Risk perceptions might change among different stakeholder groups such as society and first responders. Identifying risk perceptions of stakeholders is essential to establish effective protective measures. This study investigated the commonalities and diversities in risk perception among first responders and the public, within and between seven European and beyond countries. A self-administered questionnaire was used to gather data from both first responders and civilians. They were asked to assess their risk perception level for five categories of risks (Extreme weather-related events, nature-related events, social disruptions, critical services dependencies, and pandemics). Using Univariate Analysis of Variance showed disparity concerning both the levels of risk perception between the public and first responders, as well as their relative ranking. For example, concerning extreme weather-related and nature-related events, risk perception levels of the first responders is higher than that of the population in six out of the seven studied countries. In contrast, the population's risk perception is higher compared to the first responders in six out of the seven countries, concerning critical infrastructure dependencies and pandemics. The relative gaps between the first responders versus the population, within each country, vary considerably. Norway for example presents significant differences between the two internal populations concerning all risks (except for extreme weather), while in Sweden, no significant gaps were identified, concerning all five risks.

Can the Bahamas Continue to Be “Powered by Sunshine”?

Over the last year, the Bahamas has been featured in the news disproportionally. After reviewing the island’s vital statistics and some important physical, economic and financial events, this paper highlights the economy’s vulnerability to external shocks and extreme weather-related events. On the one hand, the island nation of less than 400,000 people—and the Caribbean region, in general—faces major challenges triggered by the intensification of global climate change. On the other hand, in order to mitigate the costs these events have had on the economy over the years, successive governments have repeatedly endorsed hosting dubious economic and financial activities. The enthusiastic reception given to FTX in fall 2021 is only the most recent example of the island’s encouragement of these questionable enterprises. Considering the economy’s performance over the last decade, an unorthodox proposal is recommended to support the future political stability and economic security of the Bahamas.

Threat perception of climate change & public preparedness for extreme weather-related events in Bermuda - A cross-sectional study

Bermuda is subject to the impact of extreme weather-related events (EWE). Climate change (CC) risks in Bermuda include the increased frequency and severity of hurricane storms. Objectives of this study encompass the measurement of the levels of preparedness for these hazards and the evaluation of the public's perception of the threat of CC. A cross-sectional study utilizing an online questionnaire was employed. The sample included 631 respondents from diverse socioeconomic backgrounds. The primary outcome was the Preparedness Index (PI), measuring compliance with eleven recommended actions. The PI's mean was 7.24 (SD = 2.42). Preparedness actions with the highest compliance included possession of a torch (97.83%) and the availability of a three-day supply of food (87.70%) and water (87.52%). Actions least complied with included the preparation of a family plan (35.62%). PI was positively correlated with a higher sense of preparedness (r = 0.238; p < 0.001) and with age (r = 0.201; p < 0.001). Predictors of PI were gender (female), older age, sense of preparedness, searching for information, and membership in a neighborhood community. A comparison of local outcomes with the Yale International CC Study provides salient insights into CC attitudes in Bermuda. The findings demonstrate a relatively high level of preparedness for EWE, identify a new "storm climate," and acknowledge the magnitude of the CC threat.

Disparities in access and association between access to critical facilities during day-to-day and disrupted access as a result of storm extreme weather events

This study examines the relationship between households' access to critical facilities day-to-day and during weather-related extreme events. Despite a robust understanding of both day-to-day access and access during disasters, the interplay between the two remains unclear. To bridge this knowledge gap, we propose a novel empirical approach, using a Texas statewide household survey (N = 810). The survey evaluates day-to-day and past events access, exploring the experiences of respondents during multiple recent disasters, rather than focusing on a specific hazard. Using correlation analysis, we examined various access-related factors such as day-to-day trip duration, alternative trip duration, and loss of access during past events. Additionally, we evaluated the association between access-related factors and sociodemographic characteristics such as income, ethnicity, and urban status. The results indicate: (1) daily trip duration to critical facilities is associated with disrupted access during storm events, and (2) disparities persist during both day-to-day times and during extreme events. These results bring new insights to the existing body of knowledge on day-to-day access and access during disasters. The findings provide scientifically grounded evidence to city managers and planners, emphasizing the need for equitable distribution of facilities to enhance access to essential facilities both in daily life and during extreme weather-related events.

Environmental, social, and WASH factors affecting the recurrence of cholera outbreaks in displacement camps in Northeast Nigeria: a rapid appraisal

Abstract In 2021, Nigeria witnessed a severe cholera outbreak that affected Borno state, in which more than 1,600,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) resided at the time. This rapid appraisal explored factors that facilitate the recurrence of cholera outbreaks in sites hosting IDPs in Northeast Nigeria. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH), management, and healthcare personnel working in ten displacement camps in Borno state. The interviews were complemented by transect walks and field observations, measurements of free residual chlorine levels, and publicly available data published by the International Organization for Migration Displacement Tracking Matrix. The recurrence of cholera outbreaks appears to be facilitated by substantial interactions between IDPs and host communities, and suboptimal WASH services in camps. Of particular concern, IDP camps are exposed to extreme weather-related events that damage facilities and subsequently affect WASH practices. WASH services in camps may likewise be severely hindered by an influx of new arrivals. In conclusion, we emphasize the importance of expanding WASH activities to host communities and developing site-specific WASH interventions and chlorination targets. Practical recommendations are needed for the prevention and control of outbreaks following extreme weather-related events and population influxes.

Climate change risk perceptions, vulnerability, and adaptation in high altitude farming regions of Hindu Kush Himalaya

ABSTRACT Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) is highly vulnerable to climate change, but there is the least understanding of the impacts of climate change. This study explored local climate change risk perceptions, vulnerability, and adaptive responses in the three HKH countries, Pakistan, Nepal, and Bhutan. For this purpose, 379 farm households from low, medium, and high elevations in the study districts of Rasuwa in Nepal, Gilgit in Pakistan and the Central District in Bhutan were surveyed. A semi-structured digital survey was used for data collection. Further, the study used the IPCC climate vulnerability framework to explore the farm-level vulnerability to climate change in three HKH countries. The study revealed that farmers in the study areas strongly agreed that the climate was changing in the region with high summer temperatures and increasing frequency and intensity of weather-related extreme events. Increasing poverty and limited institutional services make farmers more vulnerable to climate risks. Farmers reported reduced agricultural productivity and decreased revenue caused by climate change. Crop yields at high altitudes were slightly higher, but only because of multiple cropping triggered by weather patterns. Lack of information, resources, and institutional support significantly hamper the farmers’ adaptive capacity. A small fraction of the farmers adopted improved crop varieties and land management. The study recommends improving outreach and institutional services, especially climate-specific farm advisory services in HKH countries.

Three Reasons Why Expecting 'Recovery' in the Context of the Mental Health Impacts of Climate Change Is Problematic.

Global warming is bringing with it continued long-term changes in the climate system. Extreme weather-related events, which are already becoming a daily reality around the world, are predicted to be more intense and frequent in the future. The widespread occurrence of these events and climate change more broadly are being experienced collectively and at scale and do not affect populations evenly. These climate changes have profound impacts on mental health and wellbeing. Existing reactive responses include frequent implied and direct references to the concept of 'recovery'. This is problematic in three ways: it conceives of extreme weather events as single, one-off occurrences; implies their unexpected nature; and contains an integral assumption of an end point where individuals/communities are 'recovered'. Models of mental health and wellbeing support (including funding) need to change, shifting away from 'recovery' towards a focus on adaptation. We argue that this presents a more constructive approach that may be used to collectively support communities.

Does Weather-Related Disaster Affect the Financing Costs of Enterprises? Evidence from Chinese Listed Companies in the Mining Industry

In this paper, we test the impact of weather-related disasters on the individual firm’s equity financing cost based on Chinese listed companies in the mining industry. We collect data from the China Meteorological Disaster Yearbook and CSMAR database. Using direct economic loss associated with extreme weather-related events to quantitate meteorological disasters and regression analysis, we find that weather-related disasters significantly increase a firm’s equity financing cost. This result is robust compared to alternative measurements of equity financing cost, such as the two-way fixed effect model, severe disaster dummy variable, and instrumental variable regression. Further research shows that cash holdings and managerial ability can mitigate the impact of meteorological disasters on the equity financing cost. Our study provides significant implications for firms and policymakers. Firms and policymakers should carefully evaluate the risk of weather-related disasters.

Enhancing a Willingness to Respond to Disasters and Public Health Emergencies Among Health Care Workers, Using mHealth Intervention: A Multidisciplinary Approach.

Health care workers (HCWs) are increasingly faced with the continuous threat of confronting acute disasters, extreme weather-related events, and protracted public health emergencies. One of the major factors that determines emergency-department-based HCWs' willingness to respond during public health emergencies and disasters is self-efficacy. Despite increased public awareness of the threat of disasters and heightened possibility of future public health emergencies, the emphasis on preparing the health care workforce for such disasters is inadequate in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs). Interventions for boosting self-efficacy and response willingness in public health emergencies and disasters have yet to be implemented or examined among emergency HCWs in LMICs. Mobile health (mHealth) technology seems to be a promising platform for such interventions, especially in a resource-constrained setting. This paper introduces an mHealth-focused project that demonstrates a model of multi-institutional and multidisciplinary collaboration for research and training to enhance disaster response willingness among emergency department workers in Pakistan.

Increased focus on operational resilience

A wide range of recent well-publicised risks to operational continuity, including but not limited to cyber threats, combined with seemingly more frequent natural disasters and extreme weather-related events have contributed to a broad, heightened interest in operational resilience, which features as an area of considerable focus for corporates and financial institutions, as well as the global regulatory community. This paper discusses the key principles of a strong operational risk framework that remain relevant even as technology and tools advance. These principles include a deep understanding of the businesses and activities that are of greatest operational importance and the specific resources required to execute them, the development and maintenance of business continuity and crisis management plans and the performance of robust testing that is designed to illuminate opportunities for improvement. Recent developments in the global regulatory focus and approach to operational resilience are discussed, including the important differences between regulators and the lack of a single set of universal rules. While this creates challenges for global firms, the authors discuss how the global Custody business and its related ecosystem has been demonstrating its resilience throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, highlighting the interdependency of the participants on each others' resiliency.

Extreme weather events and death based on temperature and CO2 emission – A global retrospective study in 77 low-, middle- and high-income countries from 1999 to 2018

Due to rising temperatures and CO2 emissions, climate change has become one of the most important global issues. We described the relationship between extreme weather-related events and death, globally, from 1999 through 2018. We used data from the emergency events database of the Université Catholique de Louvain. We also categorized the countries’ income according to the World Bank GDP and we used the CO2 emission levels data from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center to link the GDP and CO2 emissions to years of extreme weather conditions in each country. We conducted descriptive and Poisson Regression analysis to analyze the data. A total of 77 countries reported 425 extreme weather-related events from1999 through 2018. Mortality related events were highest in middle-income countries due to severe winter conditions (N = 2,020) and cold-waves (N = 70,972). The total number of recorded deaths due to heat waves was highest in high-income countries (N = 84,344). Furthermore, the number of deaths in high-income countries, compared to low-income countries, was five-fold higher (IRR 5.18; 95%CI 4.58; 5.85, p < 0.001). The mortality rate in heat season was almost seven-fold higher than that in cold/severe winter (IRR 33.43; 95%CI 32.85; 34.02, p < 0.001). The number of deaths increased significantly with the repetition of extreme events (IRR 6.82; 95%CI 6.68; 6.96, p < 0.001). We found the number of deaths increased in high-income countries, and this was associated with an increase in the number of times extreme events occurred per year and with heat wave.

Sleep Disturbances and Delayed Sleep Timing are Associated with Greater Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms in Youth Following Hurricane Harvey.

Sleep patterns following a natural disaster are associated with mental health difficulties, but research in youth samples has been limited to subjective reports of sleep. Participants (N = 68, 8-17 years old) completed an assessment 6-9 months after Hurricane Harvey, which included subjective measures of sleep, chronotype, hurricane-related post-traumatic stress symptoms, and one week of actigraphy. Prior to the hurricane, parents provided reports on emotional symptoms. Controlling for age, sex, socioeconomic status, participation time, and pre-hurricane emotional symptoms, subjective sleep disturbances and an eveningness chronotype were associated with greater post-traumatic stress, with the strongest effects observed for re-experiencing, negative cognitions/mood, and arousal/reactivity symptoms. Later sleep timing as measured by actigraphy was associated with greater arousal/reactivity symptoms and shorter sleep duration was associated with greater avoidance symptoms. As extreme weather-related events are expected to become more frequent and severe, these findings contribute to models of youth risk and resilience.

A study on the impact of extreme weather events on the ceramic manufacturing in Egypt

Nowadays, global economic production is organized around a complex system of highly interdependent supply chains that are currently enormously disrupted due to COVID 19. What would happen if a fast-growing risk could pose a more significant threat to our supply chains? Are our supply chains resilient to climate change? Even though governments, businesses, and climate change organizations in developed countries are forced to work together trying to mitigate and adapt to this fast-moving phenomenon, developing countries like Egypt are less concerned about this topic. This study has developed a system dynamic model based on a four-phase mixed methodology approach; we captured the complex interconnected interactions between supply chain performance and climate change physical risks. A cognitive map was first developed to capture the relationship between the climate change physical risks variables and the supply chains. Then, historical climate data and data from a ceramic manufacturing company were analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS). A case study of a ceramic manufacturing company located in Egypt is provided to show the applicability of our developed system dynamic model. Lastly, we simulated different scenarios to assess the ramifications and consequences of climate change extreme weather-related events on the manufacturing process of the selected case company. We have observed a negative impact; a decrease in the manufacturing inventory level and production rate, total received orders and sales. As far as our knowledge, our study is the first to investigate the impacts of climate change extreme weather events on supply chains located in Egypt. Our main contribution is to prove and establish awareness among business owners, organizations, decision-makers and the Egyptian government that climate change and related extreme weather events exist and disruptions due to this fast-moving phenomenon must be considered. • We analyze the impact of climate-related factors on ceramic production in Egypt. • Both climate factors and the manufacturing process are highly correlated. • A system dynamic approach is developed to model various climate change scenarios.

Visualizing simulation ensembles of extreme weather events

In the last 20 years, extreme weather-related events like floods, landslides, droughts, and wildfires have caused the death of 1.23 million people and a loss of 2.97 trillion dollars. Studies show that low and lower-middle income countries are the most impacted ones given the lack of investment in disaster risk management. To reduce the impact of these events, weather researchers have been developing numerical weather models that inform public agencies about the impending extreme events in advance. Despite being powerful tools, these models can suffer from several sources of uncertainty, ranging from the approximation of micro-scale physical processes to the location-dependent calibration of parameters, which is especially critical in developing countries. To minimize uncertainty effects, researchers generate several different weather scenarios to compose an ensemble of simulations that typically are inspected using manual, laborious, and error-prone approaches. In this paper, we propose an interactive visual analytics system, called X-Weather, developed in close collaboration with weather researchers from Brazil. Our system contributes a set of statistics and probability-based visualizations that allows the assessment of extreme weather events by effortlessly navigating through and comparing ensemble members. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the system through two case studies analyzing tragic events that happened in the mountain region of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil.

Dem Klima seit dem Mittelalter auf der Spur - projektorientiertes Arbeiten in Sekundarschule und Gymnasium mit der Datenbank Euro-Climhist

Climate change and its impact have also become a central topic in school lessons. The historical Euro-Climhist climate database offers a look back at the climatic variations and extreme weather-related events during the past 700 years. This freely accessible online portal enables queries on daily and seasonal weather in Switzerland and selected regions in Europe and data series to illustrate long-term temperature and precipitation developments as well as phenological data such as snow cover, flowering, and harvest times that apply to project-based teaching.

A GIS-based screening method to identify climate change-related threats on road networks: A case study from Sweden

Extreme weather-related events are likely to increase in both frequency and intensity if current emission rates continue. Particularly vulnerable to the potential effects of climate change is the transportation sector, which fully relies on the uninterrupted accessibility of the road network. With the Swedish Government adopting a National Adaptation Strategy in 2018, creating a coordinated cross-disciplinary strategy underpinned by international frameworks, new ambition levels regarding climate change adaptation efforts have been established. Identifying particularly vulnerable parts of the road network is an essential step for National Road Authorities (NRAs) in early planning stages to prioritize adaptation efforts around high-risk areas to safeguard the road network. By utilizing both publicly and commercially available climate-related data, as well as applying and assessing new terrain analysis techniques, a large-scale vulnerability assessment is carried out for Halland County in southwestern Sweden by assessing three climate-adjusted extreme weather events (a 100-year pluvial flood event, a 100-year fluvial flood event, and an extreme coastal storm surge event) projected to exacerbate in the region. The study demonstrates how a GIS-based screening method, specifically adapted for NRAs or similar stakeholders, may provide quick overviews of potentially at-risk areas along road networks through a simple vulnerability index assigned to individual road segments. Further studies are recommended to compare modeled results to recorded flood events if available and incorporate updated climate change trajectories from upcoming IPCC reports.

Projecting the effect of climate change on residential property damages caused by extreme weather events

New Zealand's public insurer for natural hazards, the Earthquake Commission (EQC), provides residential insurance for some weather-related damage. Climate change and the expected increase in intensity and frequency of extreme weather-related events are likely to translate into higher damages and thus an additional financial liability for the EQC. We project future insured damages from extreme precipitation events associated with future projected climatic change. We first estimate the empirical relationship between extreme precipitation events and the EQC's weather-related insurance claims based on a complete dataset of all claims from 2000 to 2017. We then use this estimated relationship, together with climate projections based on future greenhouse gases concentration scenarios from six different dynamically downscaled Regional Climate Models, to predict the impact of future extreme precipitation events on EQC liabilities for different time horizons up to the year 2100. Our results show predicted adverse impacts that vary over time and space. The percent change between projected and past damages—the climate change signal—ranges between an increase of 7%–8% in liabilities for the period 2020 to 2040, and between 9% and 25% higher for the period 2080 to 2100. We also provide detail caveats as towhy these quantities might be mis-estimated. The projected increase in the public insurer's liabilities could also be used to inform private insurers, regulators, and policymakers who are assessing the future performance of both the public and private insurers that cover weatherrelated

Geospatial drought severity analysis based on PERSIANN-CDR-estimated rainfall data for Odisha state in India (1983–2018)

Studying the behavior of drought and its short-, medium- and long-term features throughout a region is very important for the creation of adequate public policies and actions aimed at the economic and social development of the region. Furthermore, the frequency and intensity of weather-related natural hazards (rainfall, heatwaves and droughts) are increasing every year, and these extreme weather-related events are potent threats worldwide, particularly in developing countries, such as India. Thus, this paper aims to evaluate the drought behavior in the Odisha region of India (1983–2018) by using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the new drought severity classification (DS). PERSIANN-CDR-estimated rainfall data were used to provide 271 time series, which were equally spaced at intervals of 0.25°, over Odisha state. The accuracy of these time series was evaluated with rain gauge-measured data at multiple time scales, and it was observed that the PERSIANN-CDR-estimated rainfall data effectively captured the pattern of rainfall over Odisha state. It was noted that almost half of the mean annual rainfall was concentrated in July and August. On addition, northeastern Odisha and areas near the coast were the rainiest regions. Furthermore, the drought pattern was evaluated based on nine distinct four-year periods (SPI-48), and the results indicated that there was high spatiotemporal variability in drought occurrence among those periods; e.g., in the last four years, extreme drought events occurred throughout the state. For the DS severity index analysis, it was noted that the values tended to be more significant with the increase in the drought time scale. For short-term droughts, DS values were less significant throughout the region, whereas for the medium-term droughts, there was an increase in the DS values in all regions of Odisha, especially in the north-central region. For long-term droughts, the values were more significant throughout the region, especially in the areas with the highest rainfall levels. Finally, the PERSIANN-CDR data should also be analyzed in other regions of India, and the obtained results are useful for the identification of droughts throughout the region and for the management of water resources and can be replicated in any part of the world.