Extensive Margins Of Labor Supply Research Articles

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Labor Supply in HANK: Aggregate and Disaggregate Implications

AbstractThis paper studies how adjustment along intensive and extensive margins of labor supply affects aggregate and disaggregate effects of monetary policy. To this end, I develop a heterogeneous‐agent New Keynesian (HANK) economy where a nonlinear mapping from hours worked into labor services generates operative adjustment along intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. I find that monetary policy has significantly different effects on earnings inequality, depending on the extent to which margin is dominant, even if it generates similar aggregate responses.

Should Italy switch to a flat tax? An assessment based on a heterogeneous agents OLG model

We use a heterogeneous agents overlapping generations (OLG) model to quantitatively assess the impact of a reform in which a personal income tax with increasing marginal tax rates is replaced by a flat tax possibly complemented with a deduction. The value of the flat tax rate is set in order to balance the government budget and accordingly it increases with the value of the deduction. The model is calibrated and simulated for Italy. For low values of the deduction, aggregate labor supply increases, though this aggregate effect masks a completely different impact on the intensive and the extensive margin of labor supply: in particular, the activity rate is reduced by the introduction of a flat tax. As to inequality, it rises and this increase can be mitigated by using an higher value of the tax deduction, which however dampens down the positive effect of a flat tax on economic performance. Finally, the effect of a flat tax on social welfare crucially depends on the degree of inequality aversion embedded in the social welfare function and on the Frisch elasticity of labor supply.

Labor supply when productivity keeps growing

We examine the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply in an incomplete-markets framework where productivity keeps growing. What are, in particular, the long-run implications for who will work how much, and how the distribution of economic welfare among households will change? We insist the relative strengths of income and substitution effects to be such as to match historical and cross-country observations. That is, hours will fall toward zero as productivity and income rise, while wages per hour will keep rising and be consistent with stable income shares for labor and capital. Despite this rather drastic path toward zero hours worked, we find that few features of the distribution of outcomes in the population are affected much at all by productivity growth. In particular, the relative distribution of hours worked and of consumption will look very similar to the case without productivity growth.

Optimal fiscal policy in incomplete market business cycle economies

In this paper, we study how a government should set its fiscal instruments in order to provide insurance to individuals and deal with inequality. We quantitatively evaluate the role of public debt and its interaction with progressive income taxation. To guide our assessment, we develop a DSGE model with incomplete markets that embeds two empirical relevant features that have not been considered by the literature: cyclical idiosyncratic risk and the extensive margin of labor supply. We calibrate the model to be consistent with the micro and macro evidence for the US economy. We study the importance of time-varying idiosyncratic risk and labor supply elasticity in determining optimal policies by considering two nested versions of the model that shut down one feature at a time. We find that considering both ingredients together significantly increases the optimal debt to output ratio. In addition, we show that the model generates a positive relationship between public debt and income tax progressivity, consistent to what is observed in the data.

The role of wage beliefs in the decision to become a nurse.

In light of skilled-labor shortage, the effect of a change in the wage of nurses on their labor supply is intensely discussed in recent literature. Using extensive data of German 14- to 15-year-olds, I analyze the role of the beliefs about a nurse's wage in the decision to become one. To estimate a partial effect, I select controls and their functional form using post-double-selection, which is a data-driven selection method based on regression shrinkage. Highlighting the importance of wages at the extensive margin of labor supply, the wage beliefs play a positive and statistically significant role. Although information is publicly available, educational choices knowingly suffer from misinformation. I find that especially those who do not become a nurse understate the wage. The results lead to two important policy implications. First, increasing the wage may help to overcome the shortage observed in many countries. Second, providing more information on the (relative) wage may be a successful strategy to attract more individuals into this profession. To assess the sensitivity of the results regarding omitted variable bias, I apply a novel approach. It turns out that potential unobserved confounders would have to be strong to overrule the conclusions.

Using Nonlinear Budget Sets to Estimate Extensive Margin Responses: Method and Evidence from the Earnings Test

We estimate the impact of the Social Security Annual Earnings Test (AET) on older workers’ employment. The AET reduces social security claimants’ current benefits in proportion to their earnings in excess of an exempt amount. Using a regression kink design and Social Security Administration data, we document that the discontinuous change in the benefit reduction rate at the exempt amount causes a corresponding change in the slope of the employment rate, suggesting that the extensive margin of labor supply is more sensitive to this policy than commonly thought. We develop a model and method that allow us to translate the behavioral responses into a lower bound estimate of 0.49 for the extensive margin elasticity, which implies more than a 1 percentage point increase in work in the absence of the AET. (JEL H55, J14, J22, J26, J31)

Employment Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit: Taking the Long View

The earned income tax credit (EITC) is the cornerstone US anti-poverty program for families with children, typically lifting millions of children out of poverty each year. Targeted to low-income households with children and only available to those who work, the EITC contains strong incentives for nonworkers to become employed. Most of the existing economics literature focuses on federal EITC expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper takes a longer view, studying all federal expansions since the program’s inception in 1975. We find robust evidence that EITC expansions increase the extensive margin of labor supply.

Search frictions and the business cycle in a small open economy DSGE model

A labor market specification featuring search frictions and unemployment within an otherwise standard New Keynesian small open economy model significantly improves its ability to explain and predict both labor market data and other macroeconomic variables. We estimate the model with Chilean data and find that variations along the extensive margin of labor supply (i.e., employment) play a crucial role in the propagation of shocks, whereas the intensive margin (i.e., hours) is not important. Furthermore, foreign shocks are the key drivers of the business cycle, which is consistent with the empirical literature on open emerging economies. We conclude that a medium-scale DSGE model with this richer labor market specification is superior to one featuring the standard assumption of a labor market that always clears at a sticky nominal wage (à la Calvo) through variations along the intensive margin.

Intensive and Extensive Margins of Labor Supply in HANK: Aggregate and Disaggregate Implications

This paper focuses on a labor-supply-side story for the monetary transmission mechanism, which has received relatively little attention in the New Keynesian literature. To this end, I develop a heterogeneous-agent New Keynesian (HANK) economy where a nonlinear mapping from hours worked into labor services generates operative adjustment along intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. The model economy quantitatively accounts for the U.S. data, including hours distributions and their transitions, and excels at producing empirically realistic responses of adjustment along both margins to a monetary policy shock. I find that, since the nonlinear mapping breaks the tight link between a curvature parameter and labor supply elasticity, the standard interpretation regarding a New Keynesian Phillips curve may be potentially very misleading from a quantitative perspective. Another important finding is that monetary policy has significantly different effects on earnings inequality, depending on the extent to which margin is dominant, even if it generates similar aggregate responses.

Employment Effects of the Earned Income Tax Credit: Taking the Long View

The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) is the cornerstone U.S. anti-poverty program for families with children, typically lifting millions of children out of poverty each year. Targeted to low-income households with children, and only available to those who work, the EITC contains strong incentives for non-workers to become employed. Most of the existing economics literature focuses on federal EITC expansions in the 1980s and 1990s. This paper takes a longer view, studying all federal expansions since the program’s inception in 1975. We find robust evidence that EITC expansions increase the extensive margin of labor supply. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.

How do tax progressivity and household heterogeneity affect Laffer curves?

How much additional tax revenue can the government generate by increasing the level of labor income taxes? In this paper, we argue that the degree of tax progressivity is a quantitatively important determinant of the answer to this question. To make this point, we develop a large scale overlapping generations model with single and married households facing idiosyncratic income risk, extensive and intensive margins of labor supply, as well as endogenous accumulation of human capital through labor market experience. We calibrate the model to U.S. macro, micro, and tax data and characterize the labor income tax Laffer curve for various degrees of tax progressivity. We find that the peak of the U.S. Laffer curve is attained at an average labor income tax rate of 58 % . This peak (the maximal tax revenues the government can raise) increases by 7 % if the current progressive tax code is replaced with a flat labor income tax. Replacing the current U.S. tax system with one that has Denmark' s progressivity would lower the peak by 8 % . We show that modeling the extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation is crucial for these findings. With joint taxation of married couples (as in the U.S.), higher tax progressivity leads to significantly lower labor force participation of married women and substantially higher labor force participation of single women, an effect that is especially pronounced when future wages of females depend positively on past labor market experience.

2018 KLEIN LECTURE: INDIVIDUAL AND AGGREGATE LABOR SUPPLY IN HETEROGENEOUS AGENT ECONOMIES WITH INTENSIVE AND EXTENSIVE MARGINS

AbstractWe study business cycle fluctuations in heterogeneous agent general equilibrium models featuring intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. A nonlinear mapping from time devoted to work to labor services generates operative extensive and intensive margins. Our model captures the salient features of the empirical distribution of hours worked, including how individuals transit within this distribution. We study how various specifications influence labor supply responses to aggregate technology shocks and find that abstracting from intensive margin adjustment can have large effects on the volatility of aggregate hours even if fluctuations along the intensive margin are small.

Unemployment and Worker Participation in the Gig Economy: Evidence from an Online Labor Market

The gig economy comprises a large portion of the workforce in today’s economy. The gig economy has low barriers to entry, enabling flexible work arrangements and allowing workers to engage in contingent employment, whenever, and in some cases, such as online labor markets, wherever, workers desire. And many of the workers seek and complete work via digital platforms. However, there is a lack of understanding into the participation in such platforms. The growth of the gig economy has been partly attributed to technological advancements that enable flexible work environments. In this study, we consider the role of an alternative driver, economic downturns, and associated financial stressors in the offline economy, for example, unemployment. Our analysis combines data from a leading online labor market and various archival sources such as the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We find local economic conditions significantly impact the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply in online labor markets. And such impacts are heterogeneous across different county characteristics. Given the prominence of the gig economy, we believe more research is needed to understand gig-economy participation. It is notable that policy makers recently started to look at related issues, proposing laws to protect the gig workers, such as the recent California Assembly Bill 5.

The impact of poor adult health on labor supply in the Russian Federation

We examine the labor supply consequences of poor health in the Russian Federation, a country with exceptionally adverse adult health outcomes. In both baseline OLS models and in models with individual fixed effects, more serious ill-health events, somewhat surprisingly, generally have only weak effects on hours worked. At the same time, their effect on the extensive margin of labor supply is substantial. Moreover, when combining the effects on both the intensive and extensive margins, the effect of illness on hours worked increases considerably for a range of conditions. In addition, for most part of the age distribution, people with poor self-assessed health living in rural areas are less likely to stop working, compared to people living in cities. While there is no conclusive explanation for this finding, it could be related to the existence of certain barriers that prevent people with poor health from withdrawing from the labor force in order to take care of their health.

Effects of Childcare Subsidies on Employment and Earnings of Low-Income Mothers

Abstract This study examines how childcare subsidies funded by the Child Care and Development Fund (CCDF – the most widespread childcare subsidy program in the United States) affect the employment status and earnings of low-income mothers. Employing a rich database of administrative records, we compute instrumental variables and control function estimates of the program’s effects. As an exclusion restriction, we take advantage of differences in efficiency levels across administrative agencies that process subsidy applications and payments. CCDF-funded subsidies have short-term effects that are primarily driven by changes in the extensive margin of labor supply. Mothers who are either unemployed or earning closer to the upper cutoff of eligibility benefit the most from participation in this program.

Optimal redistribution: A life-cycle perspective

In this paper, I characterize the optimal redistribution policy in a simple life-cycle framework with both an intensive and an extensive margin of labor supply. The extensive margin corresponds to the choice of a retirement age. The optimal allocation cannot be implemented in a decentralized economy by a standard non-linear income tax alone. It can however be implemented by a history-dependent social security system which redistributes resources across agents. A calibration of the model to the U.S. economy reveals that the retirement age should optimally be sharply increasing in productivity and that implementing the optimal life-cycle redistribution policy can generate large social welfare gains.

Social security and cross-country differences in hours: A general equilibrium analysis

I develop a general equilibrium life cycle model with an intensive and extensive margin of labor supply and endogenous human capital accumulation. I use the model to assess the effects of changes to various features of social security on labor supply outcomes. Of particular interest are changes to the scale of the program and to the relevant eligibility rules. I find that the cross-country differences in social security programs account for at least 79% of the differences in employment rates of people aged 55–64 and 17–31% of the differences in aggregate hours worked between the US and continental Europe.

Business Cycles in the Equilibrium Model of Labor Market Search and Self-Insurance

The author introduces risk-averse preferences, labor-leisure choice, capital, individual productivity shocks, and market incompleteness to the standard Mortensen-Pissarides model of search and matching and explore the model's cyclical properties. There are four main findings. First and foremost, the baseline model can generate the observed large volatility of unemployment and vacancies with a realistic replacement ratio of the unemployment insurance benefits of 64 percent. Second, labor-leisure choice plays a crucial role in generating the large volatilities; additional utility from leisure when unemployed makes the value of unemployment close to the value of employment, which is crucial in generating a strong amplification, even with the moderate replacement ratio. Besides, it contributes to the amplification through an adjustment in the intensive margin of labor supply. Third, the borrowing constraint or uninsured individual productivity shocks do not significantly affect the cyclical properties of unemployment and vacancies: Most workers are well insured only with self-insurance. Fourth, the model better replicates the business cycle properties of the U.S. economy, thanks to the co-existence of adjustments in the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply and the stronger amplification.

Business Cycles in the Equilibrium Model of Labor Market Search and Self-Insurance

The author introduces risk-averse preferences, labor-leisure choice, capital, individual productivity shocks, and market incompleteness to the standard Mortensen-Pissarides model of search and matching and explore the model's cyclical properties. There are four main findings. First and foremost, the baseline model can generate the observed large volatility of unemployment and vacancies with a realistic replacement ratio of the unemployment insurance benefits of 64 percent. Second, labor-leisure choice plays a crucial role in generating the large volatilities; additional utility from leisure when unemployed makes the value of unemployment close to the value of employment, which is crucial in generating a strong amplification, even with the moderate replacement ratio. Besides, it contributes to the amplification through an adjustment in the intensive margin of labor supply. Third, the borrowing constraint or uninsured individual productivity shocks do not significantly affect the cyclical properties of unemployment and vacancies: Most workers are well insured only with self-insurance. Fourth, the model better replicates the business cycle properties of the U.S. economy, thanks to the co-existence of adjustments in the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply and the stronger amplification.

The effects of remarriage on women’s labor supply

Many studies have found that women decrease their labor supply upon marriage and increase their labor supply upon divorce. This paper examines whether that pattern varies depending on whether the marriage is a first or higher-order one using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics for the years 1979 through 2001. The combination of a greater expected probability that a remarriage will end and the failure of household production to bring returns upon the end of a previous marriage may make women less likely to reduce their labor supply in second or higher marriages as compared to a first marriage. The results differ for the intensive and extensive margins of labor supply. With one exception, after controlling for background characteristics, the estimates imply that the probability of working is related to marriage in a similar manner regardless of whether the marriage is a first or a remarriage. In contrast, the estimates provide support for the possibility that decreases in hours of work upon marriage are smaller in second and higher marriages as compared to first marriages.