Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) occur in 5-10% of the population, but only a small minority progress to pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). The lack of accurate predictors of high-risk disease leads both to unnecessary operations for indolent neoplasms as well as missed diagnoses of PDAC. Digital spatial RNA profiling (DSP-RNA) provides an opportunity to define and associate transcriptomic states with cancer risk. Whole-transcriptome DSP-RNA profiling was performed on 10 IPMN specimens encompassing the spectrum of dysplastic changes from normal duct to cancer. Ductal epithelial regions within each tissue were annotated as normal duct (NL), low-grade dysplasia (LGD), high-grade dysplasia (HGD), or invasive carcinoma (INV). Gene expression count data was generated by Illumina sequencing and analyzed with R/Bioconductor. Dimension reduction analysis exposed three clusters reflecting IPMN transcriptomic states denoted "normal-like" ( cNL ), "low-risk" ( cLR ) and "high-risk" ( cHR ). In addition to specific marker genes, the three states exhibited significant enrichment for the exocrine, classical, and basal-like programs in PDAC. Specifically, exocrine function diminished in cHR , classical activation distinguished neoplasia from cNL , and basal-like genes were specifically upregulated in cHR . Intriguingly, markers of cHR were detected in NL and LGD regions from specimens with PDAC but not low-grade IPMN. DSP-RNA of IPMN revealed low-risk (indolent) and high-risk (malignant) expression programs that correlated with the activity of exocrine and basal-like PDAC signatures, respectively, and distinguished pathologically low-grade from malignant specimens. These findings contextualize IPMN pathogenesis and have the potential to transform existing risk stratification models. Current consensus guidelines for management of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMN) of the pancreas utilize clinical and radiographic criteria for risk stratification. Unfortunately, the estimated positive predictive value of these criteria for IPMN-associated pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is under 50%, indicating that over half of pancreatectomies are performed for benign disease. Moreover, nearly 15% of patients who were deemed "low risk" by the same criteria harbored PDAC. Surgical resection of IPMN has maximal benefit when performed prior to the development of PDAC, as evidence of carcinoma has been associated with a high rate of recurrence and poor overall survival. Thus, the development of molecular diagnostics that improve the accuracy of IPMN risk classification would have immediate relevance for patient care, both in terms of better selecting patients for potentially curative operations, as well as sparing patients with low-risk lesions from invasive procedures.
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