Gas Exports Research Articles

Prospects for Russian Gas in China for the Period until 2035

The article presents an analysis of the current state and forecasts for the longterm development of the Chinese natural gas market, as well as the prospects for increasing Russian supplies of fossil fuels to this market. It is expected that by the end of 2030 China can catch up and overtake Europe in terms of gas consumption. By 2030, the total demand for gas in China will be 390–560 billion cubic meters. m, which is almost 1.5 times higher than in 2022. During the period of economic slowdown, the imbalance of supply and demand in the global hydrocarbon market leads to its destabilization. In order to predict such situations in advance, specialists from international and Russian organizations (International Energy Agency, BP plc, Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan) and consulting companies (IHS Markit) periodically prepare papers on the evolution of world energy markets and the consequences for major countries. gas consumers. Almost all studies are not yet ready to name the period of peak demand for gas in China in the foreseeable future, which gives grounds to name the 21st century of gas transformation. In this article, a study was made of the Chinese gas market and an analysis of the factors of the longterm dynamics of demand for this energy resource. The author also made an attempt to assess the expansion of our country’s participation in the Chinese gas market, and prepared interim recommendations on using the potential for developing energy cooperation between China and Russia. At the same time, the northeastern provinсes of China, located near the Russian border, after the launch of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, will be saturated with Russian gas. At the same time, the insufficient development of gas infrastructure — pipeline capacities, gas storage facilities, distribution networks — in China will not allow increasing exports when Russia builds additional capacities. To an even greater extent, this applies to the Power of Siberia — 2 gas pipeline project. The most promising way to increase Russian gas exports to China is the organization of Russian LNG supplies to the coastal regions of China, where a steady growth in gas demand is predicted.

Relationship between Oil Prices and Russia Exchange Indices: Analysis of Frequency Causality

One of the important research topics is the potential impact of changes in oil supply and demand on current and future price movements or financial market instruments. Especially in developing countries such as Russia, which is an oil and natural gas exporter, sanctions on oil exports affect the country on a macroscale and businesses on a microscale. In this context, the aim of the aforementioned study is to examine the causality relationship between Brent oil price, which is an important input for the chemistry and transportation sectors, and the Moscow Stock Exchange MOEX Chemicals, MOEX Transport, and MOEX Financials indices using Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis. For this purpose, monthly data for the period January 2015–December 2022 were analysed first with traditional Granger causality analysis, Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis, and finally with Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis. Traditional Granger causality analysis (Toda and Yamamoto causality analysis) revealed a bidirectional causality relationship between Brent Petrol and the MOEX Chemistry and MOEX Finance Indices. However, there is no causality between Brent Petroleum and MOEX Transport. As a result of the Breitung and Candelon frequency causality analysis, causality has been determined from oil prices to stock prices in the chemical sectors, both in the short term, in the medium term, and in the long term. Only short-term causality has been found between Brent oil prices and stock prices in the financial and transportation sectors.

Trade Relations in the European Gas Market Before and after the Russo-Ukrainian War: From a Game Theory Perspective

Europe is increasingly dependent on Russian natural gas imports. As Ukraine is the main transit country for gas trade between the two sides, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which started in 2014 and has not stopped yet, has led to Europe's gas trade with Russia receiving an impact. Due to the importance of natural gas and the fact that this war was the largest in Europe since World War II, the trade relations between the European and Russian natural gas markets before and after the Russo-Ukrainian war and the diversification of natural gas in Europe have been studied by many scholars. This paper uses a review to summarize and sort out the relevant literature based on game theory to study the gas market trade relations in Europe before and after the Russo-Ukrainian War. According to these scholars, the trade relations between Russia and Europe in the gas market will continue to cooperate despite the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war. The interruption of gas exports to Ukraine and the construction of pipelines bypassing Ukraine are acceptable to Russia and Europe. Iran, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Iraq, along with the United States, should actively invest in expanding their gas export capacity to have the opportunity to serve as an alternative to Russian gas and make Europe less dependent on Russian gas imports. This paper provides an understanding of the implications of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict for the world in terms of gas trade. This paper provides a reference for related studies, and to understand the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the world from the perspective of the gas trade.

Consequences of the energy measures derived from the war in Ukraine on the level of prices of EU countries

The war in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the European Union on Russia, which is one of the largest exporters of gas and oil, are currently causing a serious energy crisis. The aim of our work is to analyze the effects that the rise in fossil fuel prices, due to the embargo on Russian gas and oil resulting from the war in Ukraine, is having on the productive sectors of European economies. We apply input-output methodology, which allows to determine and analyze the impacts experienced both in production and prices, when there is a change in an exogenous variable. The results show that not all countries and sector were affected in the same way. In fact, there are significant differences that should be considered. European countries should keep inflation under control, without social welfare losses.

Financial development and natural resources for the top five gas exporters

Given the recent preoccupations of scientific environment for “resource curse” in the context of financial development, the aim of this paper is to explore more the connection between financial development and natural resources abundance/dependence in the major five gas exporters in the period 1996–2021. The panel data models based on DOLS/FMOLS approach and mean group (MG) estimator suggest that the impact of resource abundance on financial development depends on the type of indicators used to assess the financial progress, as previous studies suggested. More coal per capita and the interaction between contract intensity and total natural resources, respectively oil per capita contribute to the development of financial markets, while economic growth supports the development of financial institutions. Even if natural gas per capita is causally related to financial development, it does not exert a significant impact on it in these countries. The new international context might be an opportunity for US, Canada, China and Saudi Arabia to achieve this target.

Lexicon-Based and Naive Bayes Sentiment Analysis for Recommending the Best Marketplace Selection as a Marketing Strategy for MSMEs

MSMEs (micro, small, and medium enterprises) play an essential role in the Indonesian economy, contributing to 60% of the country's GDP (gross domestic product), creating jobs, and increasing non-oil and gas exports. However, MSMEs in Indonesia face various challenges, including access to technology, digital marketing tools, financial resources, limited market distribution, and low technological literacy. Marketplaces provide an essential marketing channel for MSMEs to increase their competitiveness and sales. Sentiment analysis can assist businesses in making informed decisions about which marketplace to use to increase customer satisfaction. Apart from the importance of the marketplace for MSMEs in Indonesia, research on sentiment analysis for marketplace recommendations is still minimal. Therefore, this study aims to analyze six popular marketplaces in Indonesia using Lexicon-based and naïve Bayes research methods to provide the best marketplace recommendations for MSME marketing. The results showed that Blibli.com had the highest accuracy, followed by Tokopedia, Tiktokshop, Lazada, Shopee, and Bukalapak. Blibli.com received positive reviews with 96.33%, followed by Tokopedia with 95.25%, Tiktokshop with 94.61%, and Lazada with the highest accuracy. 94.22%, Shopee 92.18%, and Bukalapak 89.57%. This research has two significant contributions. First, making a scientific contribution by applying a combination model of lexicon-based and naïve Bayes to analyze market sentiment in Indonesia Second, offering a practical contribution by providing recommendations to MSME actors and policymakers in choosing the best marketplace for MSMEs marketing purposes in Indonesia. By utilizing the recommended marketplace, MSMEs can optimize their marketing strategy and increase their competitiveness in the digital marketplace.

The Future Role of International Trade Risk Elimination and Investment Promotion in the Development of Economic Relations Between Azerbaijan and Latvia

Abstract After regaining its state independence, Azerbaijan got a favorable opportunity to enter the world market. The income from the country’s rich oil and gas resources served to rapidly increase the gross domestic product. Today, the government of Azerbaijan is preparing an action plan for the development of the non-oil sector in order to reduce the country’s dependence on oil and gas exports. In particular, there are some economic spheres that have a great need to be revived and have the main share in budget revenues. Although Azerbaijan has left behind most of its competitors in the viticulture and winemaking sector for many years, in the current conditions this sector relies on foreign investments for its development. Although tourism opportunities in Azerbaijan are very wide, the level of service in hotels and recreation centers is very low. Expensive prices in return for the level of service provided have a negative impact on the growth of Azerbaijan’s tourism revenues. Unfortunately, there are also serious problems in the development of the forestry and machine-building industries and wheat production in the country. Latvia has already specialized and has some experience in exporting in the listed economic sectors in Eastern Europe. The entry of Latvian investment into Azerbaijan will serve to strengthen economic relations between the two countries and maximize mutual income. In the research work, these issues will be considered and analyzed separately by economic spheres.

International Trade

Values of net oil imports(‐)/exports for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the United States and Australia. Updated on a monthly basis.Number of imports for Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), and Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, (OECD Asia‐Pacific), and Total OECED.Current data for Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (OECD Asia‐Pacific). Updated on a monthly basis.Current data for principal importers of natural gas and the amount in which they import from United States, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain (Table 19.1).Current data for principal exporters of natural gas and the amount they export to Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia (Table 19.2). Updated on a monthly basis.

The Power of Substitution: The Great German Gas Debate in Retrospect

ABSTRACT: The Russian attack on Ukraine in February 2022 laid bare Germany's dependence on Russian energy imports and ignited a heated debate on the costs of a cutoff from Russian gas. While one side predicted economic collapse, the other side (ours) predicted "substantial but manageable" economic costs due to households and firms adapting to the shock. Using the empirical evidence now at hand, this paper studies the adjustment of the German economy after Russia weaponized gas exports by cutting Germany off from gas supplies in the summer of 2022. We document two key margins of adjustment. First, Germany was able to replace substantial amounts of Russian gas with imports from third countries, underscoring the insurance provided by openness to international trade. Second, the German economy reduced gas consumption by about 20 percent, driven mostly by industry (26 percent) and households (17 percent). The economic costs of demand reduction were manageable with the economy as a whole only experiencing a mild one-quarter contraction in the winter of 2022–2023 and then stagnating. Overall industrial production decoupled from production in energy-intensive sectors (which did see large drops) and declined only slightly. We draw a number of key lessons from this important case study about the insurance offered by access to global markets and the power of substitution, specifically that supply shocks have dramatically smaller costs when elasticities of substitution are very low (but nonzero) compared to a truly zero elasticity.

ANALISIS DAYA SAING DAN FAKTOR DETERMINAN YANG MEMPENGARUHI EKSPOR UDANG INDONESIA

Shrimp is the leading non-oil and gas export commodity as well as the Indonesian fishery sub-sector. Shrimp commodity is also a commodity that has high competitiveness because it has fluctuating exports in the period 2013-2020. The purpose of this study was to determine how the condition of competitiveness of Indonesian shrimp commodities and the influence of competitiveness, production, GDP per capita and foreign exchange rates ( US$) partially and simultaneously on Indonesian shrimp exports in five export destination countries (United States, Japan, China, Malaysia, Canada). The data used in this study is panel data. Panel data is a combination of time series and cross section. To analyze the competitiveness of Indonesian shrimp commodities in five destination countries, the RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) method was used. The RCA values ??for the five destination countries show that Indonesian shrimp exports have strong competitiveness. Based on the research results, competitiveness, production, GDP per capita and foreign exchange rates simultaneously have a significant influence on Indonesia's shrimp exports. Partially competitiveness, GDP and foreign exchange rates have a positive and significant impact on Indonesia's shrimp exports. Meanwhile, production has a negative and insignificant effect on Indonesian shrimp exports

The Fall in Gas Exports, International Reserves and Economic Growth in Bolivia

The Fall in Gas Exports, International Reserves and Economic Growth in Bolivia

Перспективы и проблемы российско-китайского сотрудничества по переходу к низкоуглеродной энергетике в контексте документов стратегического планирования РФ

Influenced by the changing global energy landscape and low-carbon transition, Russia is changing its energy development model from “commodity-based” to “innovative,” making supplying hydrogen and Arctic oil and gas exports an important part of its low-carbon transition in order to maintain a leading position in energy trade. The article attempts to analyze the prerequisites, advantages, and challenges faced by Russia in the low-carbon energy transition, as well as the current situation, prospects, and challenges of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the energy transition, in order to develop proposals for energy cooperation between the two countries. It is assumed that with the opening of Arctic sea routes, the Asia-Pacific region, represented by China, will become an important target region for Russian oil and gas exports. Energy cooperation is an important link in the strategic cooperation between China and Russia. There is considerable complementarity between Russia and China with regard to the transition to low-carbon energy and the development of clean energy sources. But with the international concept of low-carbon development improving, China-Russia energy cooperation faces a number of challenges, and the traditional energy industry chain and supply chain are experiencing great impacts. The two countries need to strengthen cooperation on green and low-carbon energy transformation based on carbon reduction and energy efficiency, jointly develop crossborder carbon regulation mechanisms, and actively promote global energy management.

International Trade

Values of net oil imports(‐)/exports for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the United States and Australia. Updated on a monthly basis.Number of imports for Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), and Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, (OECD Asia‐Pacific), and Total OECED.Current data for Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (OECD Asia‐Pacific). Updated on a monthly basis.Current data for principal importers of natural gas and the amount in which they import from United States, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain (Table 19.1).Current data for principal exporters of natural gas and the amount they export to Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia (Table 19.2). Updated on a monthly basis.

Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Overpressure Burst of Pipeline with Pressure-Protection Systems in Case of Blockage

Although overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems occurs infrequently in case of blockage, it endangers personnel safety and causes serious economic loss when it happens. Therefore, assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage is necessary to prevent accidents. This study proposes a method based on a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for assessing the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage. First, a fault tree (FT) model of pipeline overpressure burst is constructed. The constructed FT model is then mapped into the DBN model to solve the uncertainty of the model. Second, the leaky Noisy-OR gate is used to define the uncertain logical relationships of relevant nodes in the DBN model. The effect of common cause failures on a pipeline’s redundant pressure-protection system is analyzed using the multiple error shock model. Finally, a natural gas export pipeline is presented as an example to demonstrate the proposed method. Results show that the method can effectively assess the dynamic probabilistic risk of overpressure burst of pipeline with pressure-protection systems in case of blockage.

ТРУДОВІ РЕСУРСИ ТА АНОМАЛІЇ РОСІЙСЬКОЇ ДЕМОГРАФІЇ ЯК ВІДДЗЕРКАЛЕННЯ ВІЙСЬКОВОЇ АГРЕСІЇ РОСІЙСЬКОЇ ФЕДЕРАЦІЇ

The article examines structural shifts in the labor resources and demography of the Russian Federation, its economic potential and sources of filling the GDP. It was determined that the Russian Federation has income from the export of oil and gas, which it uses for the development of dual technologies and the production of military products. It was established that the Russian Federation uses its military potential to conduct armed conflicts, seize and annex the territories of other countries, or create unrecognized territorial groups that cannot develop their own economy and actually become colonies of the Russian Federation, which dictates its laws and places its military contingent on their territories. Such a policy allows the Russian Federation to seize not only territories, but also enterprises and even include the population in its composition, thereby, improving its demography. Armed conflicts are accompanied by human losses, but according to Russian statistics, before the invasion of Ukraine, the losses were not significant, and the inclusion of the population of the annexed territories into the Russian Federation only improved demography. The article builds a model that allows forming the composition of the population by age groups based on information about the birth of the population and taking into account the features of growing up and natural mortality. Using this model, it is possible to calculate the population size by age groups both for the entire population and separately for men and women. With the help of this model, the composition of the population by age groups was constructed based on information on annual birth rate starting from 1946 and taking into account the mortality rate at each age. The paper compares data on the composition of the population by age groups as of January 1, 2022 and data obtained with the help of the model. The comparison revealed anomalies in the data on the demographic composition of the population obtained from the censuses conducted in 2002, 2010 and 2020. The first anomaly is manifested in the fact that the population aged 15 to 50 years, given by official statistics as of 01/01/2022, exceeds the number of births in the corresponding years. Population migration statistics do not confirm such a movement. It was found that this could be a systematic error in the organization of the census processes. The second anomaly is a significant decrease in the population in the age groups over 50 years, which significantly exceeds the natural mortality of the population. It was determined that this may be the result of population losses during armed conflicts of past periods. The third anomaly is based on the fact that having additional revenues from the sale of oil and gas, the Russian Federation directs them not to improving the welfare of its own people, but to the production of murder weapons, trades in military equipment and uses it to carry out its own policy of seizing territories, annexing them, or creating unrecognized territorial groups that are unable form their own economy and become actually colonies of the Russian Federation. It was determined that such a strategy is terrorist for the world and genocide for its own people.

Tinjauan Produksi Daerah Penghasil Kelapa Sawit di Sumatera Barat dengan Analisis Profil

Palm oil is an important industrial plant and has a benefits of palm oil as the main raw material for cooking oil, increasing the country's foreign exchange and as a mainstay commodity of non-oil and gas exports. West Sumatra has 19 regencies and cities, but only 14 regencies and cities that produce palm oil. There is a high inequality in average productivity, so it is necessary to describe the ideal production of productive land area and oil palm production in West Sumatera using profile analysis. This study aims to determine the results of profile analysis in districts/cities in West Sumatra that produce palm oil. The results are the comparison of production and ideal production of the average land area in West Sumatra is not the same. There are three types of regions based on the level of optimization as follows: (1) non-optimal areas, namely West Pasaman Regency, Sijunjung, Agam, Pesisir Selatan, Pasaman, and Dharmasraya Regencies (2) almost optimal areas, namely Lima Puluh Kota Regency. (3) optimal areas are Solok Regency, Padang Pariaman, South Solok, Padang City, Solok City, Sawahlunto City, and Pariaman City.

MODEL DEPENDENSI HARGA-HARGA KOMODITAS EKSPOR UNGGULAN INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN COPULA

The export of non-oil and gas leading commodities (palm oil, rubber and cocoa) contributes the largest state revenue. Copula is used to model the dependency between two variables that have different marginal distributions. The data to be used is secondary data from the Commodity Futures Trading Supervisory Agency (BAPPEBTI) starting from January 1, 2018 - February 28, 2020 for the period before the Covid-19 pandemic and March 1, 2020 - November 26, 2021 for the period after the Covid-19 pandemic. The dependency of the two variables to be measured is the price of palm oil, rubber and cocoa before and after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. The Copula that will be used are Joe, Gumbel, Frank, Gaussian, Clayton, and Student's t. The best Copula model obtained for palm oil and rubber dependencies is the Joe Copula, while palm oil and cocoa and cocoa rubber dependencies are the Clayton Copula.

Accelerated Shelf-life Testing of Balado Potato Chips Using Arrhenius Model Approach

Potatoes are a commodity that has the potential to be developed as a source of carbohydrates to support food diversification programs, increase farmer incomes, non-oil and gas export commodities, and processed industrial raw materials. One of the processed products from potatoes that are typical and popular with Indonesian people is balado potato chips. As a product that will ultimately be consumed, of course, the value of product safety (food safety) in the form of shelf life information needs to be considered. Product samples were incubated in an incubator with three different storage temperatures, namely 25°C, 30°C, and 45°C. Samples were analyzed with hedonic parameters, FFA levels, and water content every 7 days for 28 days (days 0, 7, 14, 21, and 28). The product shelf life at 25 °C, 30 °C and 45 °C respectively 37, 36 and 32 days. it is recommended that potato chip products be stored in closed packaging and stored in a cool place and avoid being stored in a place exposed to sunlight which will affect storage temperature and also free fatty acid levels which can cause rancidity.

International Trade

Values of net oil imports(‐)/exports for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, the United States and Australia. Updated on a monthly basis.Number of imports for Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Republic of Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Norway, Poland, Switzerland, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Chile, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), and Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, (OECD Asia‐Pacific), and Total OECED.Current data for Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, Other EU‐15 (EU‐15), Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, and Other Europe (OECD Europe), Canada, Mexico, and the United States (OECD Western Hemisphere), Australia, Japan, Republic of Korea, and New Zealand (OECD Asia‐Pacific). Updated on a monthly basis.Current data for principal importers of natural gas and the amount in which they import from United States, Republic of Korea, United Kingdom, France, Japan, Italy, Germany and Spain (Table 19.1).Current data for principal exporters of natural gas and the amount they export to Canada, Trinidad and Tobago, the United States, Netherlands, Norway, Russia, Turkmenistan, Qatar, Algeria, Nigeria, Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia (Table 19.2). Updated on a monthly basis.

What Drives the Economic Activity in the Oil-Producing Countries? An Empirical Evidence for Caspian Countries

Abstract This study investigates and assesses the economic activity in the five Caspian states - Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan over the period from 1998 to 2021. In this regard, we used GDP as the dependent variable, while oil production, global oil price, natural gas production, global natural gas price, exports, and inflation were the explanatory variables in order to investigate and capture their impact on the economic activity in these energy-producing countries. In terms of methodology, we performed the regression models often used in the panel analysis - Common Effects Model and Fixed Effects Model, and also applied various robustness and diagnostic tests, namely: F-test, Jarque-Bera test, Breusch- Pagan LM Test or Chow Test. Our results showed that the Fixed Effects Model provides a more accurate estimation of the economic activity (in terms of GDP), since the exports and the oil production have a direct, positive and statistically significant influence on these economies. For instance, a 10% increase in the exports and oil production generates an increase in the level of GDP of about 0.96% and 3.12%. At the same time, the results showed moderate positive and direct correlations between GDP and inflation, as well as between oil prices and inflation, suggesting that oil prices exert a greater influence on producer prices because of oil’s role as a key input in these oil-exporting countries. Furthermore, by applying the Vector Error Correction model (VECM), our results showed that the variables are not cointegrated and the level of GDP per capita is not influenced by the co-movements of the explanatory variables in the long-run. In this sense, a policy implication of the study would be to develop more intensive co-operation and build new energy trade relationships between the Caspian Countries and other energy-dependent countries, especially the European Countries.