Export Basket Research Articles

Managerial Ability, Earnings Quality, and Future Performance

This paper investigates Algeria's main export volatility drivers via a regression model. The methodology involves the construction and estimation of an econometric model. In this model, the annual time series from 1992 to 2016 is used to estimate the impact of export structure and product concentration on the size of export volatility. The results reveal that export volatility in Algeria is high, and this is due to the growing percentage of consumer and raw material exports. The increasing size of exports is also an essential determinant of volatility. The findings indicate a need to reduce the reliance on primary exports while policymakers should diversify the export basket to reduce export volatility.

Southeast Asian catch-up through the convergence of trade structures

ABSTRACT Regional trade agreements are vigorously debated, especially since the effects of trade on economic development is uncertain. Since East Asian trade occurs mostly within the region, we examine how trade structures might affect economic growth and provide directionality. The role of export composition is known to affect the rate of growth of emerging economies depending on trade structure similarity. This paper analyses the role of export baskets in the economic growth of developing countries in Southeast Asia, and tests the hypothesis that similarity of export structures leads to economic catch-up by providing directionality. The empirical analysis uses export data of East Asian countries to measure the bilateral similarities in export structures between the past and the present trade structures of Southeast Asian countries and comparing them withNortheast Asian countries that became wealthier earlier and Southeast Asian countries that tend to be latecomers. We find that the similarity of export structure provides directionality based on the overall competitiveness of a country's export sectors. This study fills the previous research gap of structural change from the perspectives of catch-up and directionality, by analysing the linkage between export structure convergence and economic catch-up, and linkage between export structure diversification and path-dependence.

ICT Infrastructure and Trade in Services: A Cross-country Analysis

Share of services in the economy increased drastically in developed as well as developing countries in last couple of decades. However, the share of services was very less in the export basket of these countries due to the mobility constrains associated with services delivery, until 21st century. The drastic development in Information Communication Technology (ICT) in the form of mobile phone and internet played a vital role in removing this constraint in recent years. So the share of services in the total export almost doubled in many countries. Moreover, foreign exchange earnings through services export is the main source to finance technology embodied manufacturing goods import in many developing countries. Services export also had impact on long term economic growth via Total Factor Productivity (TFP). So, ICT induced services export has a prominent role to play in modern liberalised economies. The present study examines the impact of ICT on trade in services with Least SquareDummy Variable (LSDV) panel data estimation by controlling human capital, socio political conditions and other omitted country specific factors. The study period span from 2002 to 2016, for 34 services exporting countries, which is covering more than 85 percent of total world services export. The present study has two improvement over existing services trade and ICT literature. First, our ICT variable was constructed by a Principle Component Analysis (PCA) on the internet spread, and telephone and mobile phone connectivity, instead of using either internet spread or a compound index provided by ITU (International Telecommunication Union) as in the literature. Second, this study corrects omitted variable bias which is observed as a major problem in the literature, by employing LSDV estimation. We found that better ICT infrastructure increases share of services in total export. Moreover, ICT has contributed for the services export of developing countries than for developed countries in recent years. So, the policies to increase mobile phone connectivity and internet can restructure the trade pattern of a country. Countries with better human capital and healthy socio political conditions .

Trends in Export of Major Agricultural Commodities and Products from India

India's agricultural products export touched $ 50 billion for the financial year FY22, the highest level ever achieved. Basmati and Non-basmati rice are major exports and doubled during 2010-20 compared to 2000-2010. Export value of basmati and non-basmati rice were about Rs. 32,000 crores and Rs. 23,000 crores respectively during 2019-20. Exports of processed vegetables, fruits, nuts and fresh grapes are growing nearly 3 times during 2010-2020 (Rs.500 crores each) compared to 2000-2010 (around Rs. 3,000 crores each). Exports of cucumbers, gherkins, jaggery and confectionary items are growing at a faster rate in the recent decade (Rs.400 crores during 2005-06 to Rs. 1600 crores during 2019-20). Export basket of agricultural commodities is highly diversified (Herfindahl Index: 0.09 – 0.26) and non-conventional exports like processed vegetables, fruits and vegetables are increasing in faster rate. Hence, policy support to the non-conventional and high value exports as well as small and new exporters has to be continued. Aggregation of small exports and Farmers Producers Companies will directly benefit the farmers.

Import–export nexus and China's emerging trade in environmental goods

AbstractInternational trade in environmental goods (EG) provides a market‐based solution to balance the development–environment relationship. How can developing economies gain new growth opportunities through trade liberalisation in the EGs? This study investigates the structural features of products and firms during the early development of China's EG trade. This study defines the import–export nexus as the product relatedness between imports and exports at the firm level, which may promote the technology spill overs and firm cooperation. This study combines two nationwide data sets and constructs a data panel covering 334 prefectures and 248 EGs during 2001–2012. The conditional logit model with fixed effects is used for coefficient estimation. Empirical results reveal that the import–export nexus promotes new EGs in domestic sectors and export baskets, primarily supported by domestic private firms. The import–export nexus allows state‐owned firms, which only represent a small market share, to enrich export baskets. It also helps foreign firms to develop new EGs in domestic sectors. These findings suggest revisiting the role of state‐owned firms in industrial policy and developing a broad list of EGs to make use of the product relatedness. These will make developing economies like China gain new growth opportunities from the EG trade.

An Assessment of Agricultural Export Competitiveness of Commercial Crops: Pathways to Augment Indian Agricultural Exports

Agricultural exports in developing countries significantly impact achieving sustainable development goals targeted at improving agricultural productivity, sustainability, poverty eradication, and employment creation. The pattern of agricultural export competitiveness of India vis-à-vis other Asian agricultural-based countries was assessed during the post-WTO period (2001 to 2019). The Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) technique was employed using time series data focusing on High-Value Commercial (HVC) crops. As is evident from the RSCA indices for India, a high degree of export competitiveness was witnessed in tobacco, cotton, and spices, whereas it declined in sugarcane, coffee, and tea over the years. The commodities that exhibited strong competitiveness reflected huge potential, whereas commodities such as sugarcane, coffee, and tea experienced erosion in their competitiveness. With the changing priorities of the nation, there is a need for India to redraw future agricultural export scenarios focusing on the production of HVC crops, processing and value chains, and diversification of export baskets while maintaining the sustainability of agro-ecological assets. Nevertheless, agricultural exports had vast potential to drive the economy in developing countries like India. The holistic conclusion advocates an important policy implication for the design of export strategy to augment the export competitiveness of HVC crops and enhance the share of agricultural exports in the context of emerging trends and change commercial facets of Indian agriculture.

A study on the trade direction of fresh and dried figs : Export from Afghanistan

Figs is one of the most important and delicious fruits. Afghanistan produces 24319 tonnes of figs during 2019 (FAO statistics). It is one of the important commodities in export basket of Afghanistan. The major export markets for figs are India, Pakistan USA, Canada and U Arab Emts.The present study aims to quantify the export performance and changing structure of figs exports from Afghanistan. Secondary data on area, production and country wise quantity exports of figs was collected from FAO statistics, and APEDA for a period of 10 years from 2010 to 2019. Compound annual growth rate was computed for studying the trend in area, production, yield, export quantity and export value for figs. Markov chain analysis was attempted to assess the direction of change in exports. Markov chain analysis results showed that, India is the stable market for Afghan figs and U Arab Emts are less stable markets. The major reasons are geographical advantage and good relations for India which gave competitive advantage over other countries with reference to fresh and dried figs export. India is the main country to import figs in the next five years. It shows high value in terms of quantity and percentage which is more than 90 per cent of all Afghanistan’s figs export.

Impact of export diversification on economic growth: a system GMM approach

PurposeThis paper aims to empirically analyze the impact of export diversification on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth.Design/methodology/approachUsing system generalized method of moments (GMM), a nonlinear model in a dynamic panel data growth framework for 101 countries between 1995 and 2019 was estimated.FindingsResults evidenced that export concentration, measured by the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), is negatively associated with GDP per capita growth after controlling for the effects of other explanatory variables. Further, the squared term of HHI used in the model to measure the nonlinear relationship between export concentration and economic growth indicated that the low-income and lower-middle-income countries benefited from export diversification. At the same time, high-income and upper-middle-income countries perform well with their export specialization. The results of the robustness check validate the findings of nonlinear estimation.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings recommend that low-income and lower-middle-income countries diversify their export basket to improve economic growth by generating stable export earnings. Similarly, high-income and upper-middle-income countries should focus on measures to close the product lines which no longer belong to their factor endowments and rebalance their export basket.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the existing literature by using the system GMM method, which is most appropriate for a dynamic panel data growth framework with up-to-date data. Further, this study segregates a large panel into 43 concentrated and 58 diversified countries to test the robustness of the empirical results.

Assessment of the Factors Impacting on Export-led Growth Policy Performance of East African Countries: The Panel-Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model

Exports play a crucial function in a country's economy and financial system, figuring out the extent of employment economic growth, along with the balance of payments. East African Countries have installed numerous trade coverage or policy reforms to promote and improve the export sectors. However, their proportion in general world exports continues to be very low. Despite its massive resource potential, the region's balance of trade stability for multiple years is in deficit; its export-led growth performance persisted poor notwithstanding governments' promotion and support. Hence, it's worthy of looking at the fundamental factors impacting East African countries' export performance. The present study dominantly applied the data of Africa and the Global development indicator of 20 years (2001 to 2020) for 9 East African countries, using a panel-ARDL econometric model. The descriptive outcomes of the research depict that in East Africa, the exports were low; the external trades denoted a continuous deficit in the business, industrial items dominated in the import basket, and primary items were overlooked in the export basket. The pooled mean group (PMG) estimation result also suggests that all the macroeconomic factors (independent variables) FDI, GDP, REER, INF, TOT, and IND are notably affected export in East Africa in the long run. Whereas GDP is the single variable that substantially influences export from East African nations in the short run. The results advise that inflation rate, foreign direct investment inflows, and the effective actual exchange rate had statistically detrimental or negative impacts on export performance in the study countries. To this end, the outcomes stand important for redesigning export trade policies/strategies to boost the performance of exports and the overall ultimate economic growth in East Africa. Keywords: East Africa, Export performance, Export-led growth policy, Macroeconomic factors, Panel data, PMG/ARDL DOI: 10.7176/DCS/12-4-01 Publication date: April 30 th 2022

Specialize or diversify? And in What? Trade composition, quality of specialization, and persistent growth

Abstract This paper, using a long-term, product-level, cross-country dataset, analyzes the trade–growth nexus by introducing two novel indicators able to capture demand and supply attributes of countries’ quality of specialization. The Keynesian efficiency index measures demand attractiveness of the export baskets, estimating product-level demand elasticities and weighting them by diversification; the Schumpeterian efficiency index tracks the export baskets’ technological dynamism proxied by product-level patent intensities. These two dimensions of quality of specialization are effective in explaining the rate and volatility of growth and the duration of growth episodes, identified as periods longer than 8 years of 2% average growth and, even more, of exceptional growth episodes ($\geq\,5\%$). Our results, robust to a wide range of control variables, suggest that specialization per sé is detrimental for growth resilience while countries with a diversified export structure specialized either in demand-elastic and technological-dynamic productions are likely to experience longer growth episodes.

The effect of export composition on energy demand: A fresh evidence in the context of economic complexity

AbstractEnergy is pivotal for sustainable economic growth. Undoubtedly, the role of the composition of the export basket (measured as economic complexity) is one of the crucial variables influencing energy consumption. Despite its importance, the existing body of literature does not intensively study the relationship between economic complexity and total energy consumption. Therefore, this study's primary aim was to examine the effect of economic complexity on energy consumption in a case study of 21 developed and 44 developing countries for the period 1971–2014. In this context, economic complexity expresses the level of sophistication of a country's export basket. This paper considers energy prices and income as explanatory variables in Durbin‐H panel cointegration analysis and applies a cointegration test with structural breaks to check for the long‐run relationships. For the long‐run estimations, we employ the augmented mean group method and dynamic seemingly unrelated regression. The findings reveal that economic complexity increases energy consumption in developing countries while it decreases energy consumption in developed countries. This is an important insight for countries concerned about their energy dependence. The diversification of their production and export baskets can reduce energy needs. The paper finally presents policy recommendations based on the empirical estimates.

Տնտեսական բարդության ցուցիչ. Հայաստանը 76-րդն է/Economic Complexity Index: Armenia is the 76th

The Economic Complexity Index is based on the diversity and ubiquity of countries’ export baskets. Developed countries, which have a great potential for productive knowledge, export complex products, such as machinery, chemicals, vehicles, etc. However, developing countries with limited capabilities export low-complexity products, such as mining and agricultural products. Over the last 20 years, Armenia has worsened 25 positions in the ECI ranking due to the decline in export diversification. In order to diversify exports and produce complex products, the government must intervene effectively to redistribute resources and direct them to the production of complex products.

Foreign direct investment and export diversification in developing countries

This study examines the individual and interactive impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), domestic production structure, infrastructure, natural resource endowment, and fiscal incentives on export diversification. The econometric estimation is based on a dynamic systems general method of moments (sGMM) analysis using panel data from 44 Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries. The study finds a positive export-diversifying effect of FDI in SSA suggesting that FDI has an influence on the composition of export baskets in host economies. Furthermore, diversifying production sectors, credible institutions, and macroeconomic stability are essential for promoting export diversification, while landlockedness and natural resource endowments contribute to export concentration. The study finds that the FDI’s impact on export diversification is reinforced by better access to infrastructure and fiscal incentives to foreign investors in special economic zones (SEZs). The latter results compare with findings by Farole and Moberg (2017), while the importance of infrastructure in export diversification is emphasised by Fosu (2021). The findings from this study are particularly important to SSA economies that other than having highly concentrated export baskets have in recent years faced declines in FDI albeit limited domestic capital and government resources needed to propel export diversification. SSA economies must focus on efforts to attract more FDI possibly through regulatory reforms that grant foreign investors fiscal incentives for investing in targeted sectors and operating in SEZs.

The role of intra-regional trade in the Pacific Alliance's integration into AsiaPacific

One of the objectives of the Pacific Alliance is trade integration orientated towards Asia-Pacific; However, the integration of the bloc’s members into that region’s markets is circumscribed by their low levels of intra-regional trade and their limited export diversification. On this basis, this research seeks to explain the extent to which the intra-regional trade of the Pacific Alliance affects its inclusion in the Asia-Pacific markets. The methodology research is explanatory. Indicators ofeconomic interdependence are analyzed to observe the degree of intra-regional trade within the alliance and in other Asia-Pacific regions, as well the technological content of each member’s export basket. The results show that while the Pacific Alliance’s trade has an extra-regional bias and its exports are tending towards reprimarization, this has not been an impediment to the objective of inclusion in international markets with an orientation towards Asia-Pacific as the bloc’s trade bias towards that region has increased.

Мезоэкономическое моделирование влияния структурных сдвигов промышленности на экспорт высокотехнологичной продукции

The paper aims to provide a theoretical and empirical evaluation of the impact of structural shifts in the US industry on high-tech exports. The article tests the hypothesis that there is a direct relationship between the comparative advantages of US subregions and states and the complexity of high-tech exports. The methodo­logical framework is based on meso-economic modelling, which includes the principles and technologies of index and regression analysis of US industrial development in 2011-2020. The results of the study confirm the hypotheses. More specifically, they reveal an increase in the spatial heterogeneity and asymmetry (on the level of subregions and states) that accompanies an increase in the economic and product complexity of production /distribution and regional exports. In the subregions of the country’s ‘geo-economic centre’, export meso-industry is developing faster. Interestingly, in some of the ‘semi-peripheral’ subregions, high-tech exports demonstrate a potential for growth as the groups of manufactured and exported products are becoming more complex. Thus, regional meso-economy creates competitive advantages of innovative type determined by the structural shifts in the US industry. These factors create many combinations for sustained development of territories and their export baskets, both at present and in the future.

Export Performance of Agricultural and Allied Products: A Study of the North-Eastern Region of India

The North-eastern Region of India, an agrarian economy, is rich in agricultural produce and contributes highly to the region's GDP. After the launch of the Act East Policy, the opportunity to capture the world market has enlarged and many export houses are registered in the region. As the government is emphasizing trade and commerce more, it becomes important to know the performance of the export houses of the region. The study has determined the comparative advantage of the agricultural products of the region in the country’s export basket using the Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and revealed the export performance of the region using the Average Annual Growth Rate and Compound Annual Growth Rate and showed the trend and growth of the value and quantity of exports. The study revealed that the agricultural products of the North-eastern Region have an advantage in the export of the country and growth is minimum but positive post the launching of Act East Policy.

Forecasting India’s Merchandise Exports Amid COVID-19 Pandemic: A Detailed Assessment of Highly Concentrated/ Dependent Export Basket & Trade in COVID Related Products

Forecasting India’s Merchandise Exports Amid COVID-19 Pandemic: A Detailed Assessment of Highly Concentrated/ Dependent Export Basket & Trade in COVID Related Products

ТРАНСФОРМАЦІЯ СТРУКТУРИ ЕКОНОМІКИ УКРАЇНИ В УМОВАХ ВІЙНИ

This study examines as a war, that undermined the economic security of the country, at the same time is deforming the structure of the national economy. The purpose of the article is to study the factors of structural deformation of the economy during the war; to analyze export specialization and the structure of the national economy; to consider the prospects for the development of long production chains as a prerequisite for structural progress. The factors of this deformation have been summarized, namely, the people death, their deportation by the aggressor; complete or partial shutdown of most enterprises; huge losses of key production factors (physical capital, labor, land); disruption of product supply and sales chains; limiting the availability of necessary production resources; loss of jobs and drop in income; market imbalance; destabilization of foreign trade. The composition of the export basket has been analyzed as a reflection of the national economy structure; and the dominance of raw materials and products with a low degree of processing in the export have been shown. Tendencies to narrowing of the variety of industrial activity types and products assortment have been revealed, which indicates the simplification of the national economy and the weakness of its innovative potential. The results of econometric modeling show that the density of inter-industry connections in the economics of the country is low, and the development of value chains is insufficient. The need to improve the structure of the economy through the creation of long production chains (which should combine the agricultural sector with the processing and service sectors) in order to increase the productivity and the growth rates of the economy has been substantiated.

Глобальные рынки передового производства — новая возможность для технологического обновления России

New technologies, including Industry 4.0, are rapidly changing traditional and high-tech industries, and forming the advanced manufacturing sector within the industrial complex. By now Russia has been characterized by a modest presence in the world advanced manufacturing markets – Russia’ share is less than 0.6% in certain markets and less than 0.4% in global advanced manufacturing. This is partially explained by the scarce commodity range in the Russian export basket, which determines weak representation of Industry 4.0 goods. Large part in the Russian advanced manufacturing exports is traditional for the Russian economy goods — airplanes, turbojet engines, fuel rods. However, we observe positive structural changes in Russian exports caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Russia has increased exports of goods with bio- and additive technologies, optoelectronics. It seems that the entry to new advanced manufacturing markets for Russia can form the basis for long-term growth. International experience shows that advanced manufacturing exports are often supported by advanced manufacturing imports. We find that Russian economy significantly underutilizes this channel. Although Russian advanced manufacturing imports are gradually growing, it is focused primarily on final consumer goods. We consider industrial robots as a case of advanced manufacturing imports that deserves special attention as a widespread cross-cutting technology that can significantly transform the technological level of industries. Our estimates show that, although the robotics market in Russia is relatively small and has low growth rates relatively to investment in fixed assets, companies importing industrial robots are larger and more productive. This evidence allows us to determine the import of industrial robotics as one of the priority directions of modernization of the Russian manufacturing. Based on the analysis we identify and discuss three growth opportunities for Russia in global advanced manufacturing: 1) support of exports of services in optoelectronics and ICT through the use of accumulated human capital and competencies and taking into account fast transformation of business models in industry, 2) support of exports of biotechnology products, taking into account positive reputational effects and expanding Russian pharmaceutical exports under the COVID-19 pandemic; 3) support of technology companies in wide number of advanced manufacturing taking into account current favorable environment for the birth of tech startups in Russia.

Export Competitiveness and Price Trend of Basmati Rice

"The present study was undertaken to access the price trend of Basmati rice in domestic and International market and export competitiveness of Basmati rice as it accounts a major share to the export basket of India and generates higher earning due to high value in both international and domestic market compared to other agricultural commodities. The secondary data required to achieve the objectives were collected from the APEDA, DGCIS and Indiastat website for a period of 20 years (1999-2000 to 2018-2019). The trend in domestic and international price was estimated by using different parametric models and Nominal Protection Coefficient (NPC) was used to study the export competitiveness. The trend analysis showed that among all the competitive parametric models, exponential model was best fitted for both domestic and international price. The NPC value concluded that for all the three periods taken into consideration, Basmati rice was highly competitive in global market. Therefore, there is comparative advantage in the export of Basmati rice and concerned efforts must be taken up to effectively utilise its export potential."