GDP Consumption Research Articles

Expenditure Rules: Limiting the Level or the Variation of Public Expenditure?

The main goal of the first-generation expenditure rules was to ensure fiscal discipline: preserving a sound fiscal framework and public debt sustainability. Regarding this goal, analytically as well as empirically, limiting the share of public expenditure in GDP would be more appropriate in case of weak potential economic growth or if the public expenditure-to-GDP ratio is high. On the contrary, limiting the variation of public expenditure would be more appropriate for countries with high potential economic growth or with a weak public expenditure-to-GDP ratio. The second goal of expenditure rules is to contribute to sustaining economic activity. Regarding this goal, limiting the level of public expenditure appears as more favorable than limiting the variation of public expenditure. Indeed, a rule in terms of variation could hamper economic growth, especially for countries with a high public expenditure-to-GDP ratio.

Social Inequalities in mental health service use and perceived helpfulness: A global analysis across 111 countries

Abstract Social inequalities in mental health are evident in the prevalence of mental health problems, but also the utilisation and patents’ perceived benefits of treatment. However, the extent of these disparities on a global scale and whether there are country-level differences in the predictors of mental health service use remain unknown. This study uses data from the Wellcome Global Monitor 2020, a nationally representative survey encompassing 111 countries and 117,088 individuals. We examine the association of socio-economic factors (such as household income and education), psycho-social factors (including stigma perception and trust in health professionals), and country-level variables (such as GDP, Gini coefficient, and health expenditure) with mental health service use and perceived effectiveness of treatment. Multi-level logistic regression models were employed for analysis. The utilisation of mental health professions of people with depression or anxiety symptomology is higher in HICs (predicted probability of 62% CI[0.60 - 0.65]) compared to LIMCs (predicted probability of 33% CI[0.31 - 0.34]). Higher country GDP (OR = 1.26 CI[1.08-1.47]) and health expenditure (OR = 1.11 CI[1.04-1.19] per percentage of health expenditure) are associated with higher treatment utilisation. On the individual level, those in the wealthiest quintile are more likely to engage with mental health professionals (OR = 1.25[1.14-1.36]) and perceive this treatment as highly beneficial (OR = 1.23[1.07-1.40]). Trust in healthcare practitioners and perceived stigma are also associated with mental healthcare use. This analysis shows strong patterns of mental healthcare use and perceived benefits depending on the wealth of the country, health expenditure and individual socio-economic status. Moreover, disparities in treatment utilization and effectiveness are also influenced by trust in healthcare professionals and perceived mental health stigma.

Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure: A Cross-Sectional Analysis at the Country Level

This study examines the determinants of healthcare expenditure through a cross-sectional analysis of 153 countries using 2018 data. The research employs a classical linear regression model to identify key socioeconomic and demographic factors influencing healthcare spending per capita, expressed in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity). The results show that GDP per capita, public health expenditure as a percentage of GDP, physician availability, and out-of-pocket healthcare costs are statistically significant determinants of healthcare spending. Specifically, the analysis highlights the non-linear relationship between GDP and healthcare expenditure, where wealthier nations tend to spend disproportionately more on healthcare. Public investment in healthcare and the availability of medical professionals also play crucial roles in shaping national healthcare expenditures. Out-of-pocket expenses by households further increase overall healthcare costs, especially in countries with lower public funding. The proposed model explains 96.5% of the variation in healthcare expenditure, suggesting that the selected variables are strong predictors of healthcare spending. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, particularly in the context of balancing public healthcare financing and improving access to medical services while managing overall costs.

Relationship between GDP and Government Expenditure on Environmental Protection and Environmental Tax Revenues

One of the main aims set by the European Union (EU) is to protect the environment and improve its quality, which affects many industry sectors (such as mining, energy, transport and many others). But at the same time, it aims to achieve economic growth. The paper links these two ambitions of the EU. The paper aims to examine the relationship between the GDP and two environmental indicators, namely the government expenditure on environmental protection and the environmental tax revenues in the EU countries. The research uses freely available Eurostat database data and relativizes them by per capita conversion for comparability. Descriptive statistics and fixed effect panel regression models are used in the evaluation. All data for all EU countries from 2014 onwards are evaluated. The results showed that the level of GDP per capita in the European Union countries could be affected by government expenditure on environmental protection per capita (positive relationship validated) and environmental tax revenues per capita (positive relationship validated). The paper presents political implications in two dimensions. The one follows from the double positive effect of government expenditure on environmental protection – contribution to environmental sustainability and economic growth. The second one calls for caution in decision-making by the public authorities based on the interpretation of the positive relationship of environmental tax revenues since their growth may be accompanied by an increase in undesirable activities associated with threats to environmental sustainability.

The evolution of Japanese real GDP components in the time–frequency domain: The disappearance of the investment accelerator effect?

AbstractUnderstanding the interaction between national income GDP expenditure components is a key part of the study of the macroeconomics of any country. The general aim of this study is to explore this interaction between the GDP expenditure components in the time–frequency domain for the country of Japan, obtain some stylized facts and then compare them with those of the United States. The main result shows that the cyclical interactions between consumption and investment are typical of an “accelerator” effect and operate at several different frequencies, but that the several different cycles evident in the data phase out in the 1990s, once secular stagnation started to take hold. We hypothesize that Japan's investment drivers then changed to be dependent on the external sector by the 2000s. A secondary result is that Japanese fiscal policy appears to have been largely ineffective in terms of creating cyclical interactions with other GDP components.

Relationship between the Human Development Index and public social spending: European experience for Ukraine

This study focuses on the relationship between the Human Development Index (HDI) and public social expenditures, analyzing socio-economic models using the examples of selected European countries and Ukraine. The study used the values of the HDI, GDP, and indicators of public expenditures for social purposes, namely, healthcare, education, leisure, culture and religion, and social protection for the period from 2010 to 2021. The analysis targeted 13 European countries using data sets from Eurostat, the Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, and the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine. The input time series were checked for lagged values using the STATISTICA software.Empirical evidence suggests a relationship between HDI and public social spending. An increase in the share of public social expenditures in GDP leads to an increase in HDI and vice versa. European countries with a social-democratic model of development have the highest level of centralization of public expenditure in GDP (34.72%) and the highest HDI (0.930), while countries belonging to the Southern European model have the lowest share of socially oriented public expenditure (30.41%) and the lowest HDI (0.873). In addition, there is a time lag between the investment of public funds in healthcare, education, leisure, culture and religion, and social protection and their impact on HDI changes. Thus, ensuring a high level of HDI is achieved, among other things, through state financial support for the relevant components of the social sphere and social protection. AcknowledgmentThe study is funded by the EU NextGenerationEU through the Recovery and Resilience Plan for Slovakia under project No. 09I03-03-V01-00130.

Impact of sectoral economic performance and fiscal capacity on public health expenditure in South Africa

This study analyses the long-run relationship between, and the direction and magnitude of impact of sectoral economic growth and fiscal capacity on government health expenditure. The study was carried out to validates the Wagner hypothesis from sectoral perspective and revenue-expenditure hypothesis for South Africa for the period 1984–2020. Fully modified least squares and dynamic least squares and canonical cointegration regression were used to achieve the objectives of the study. Empirical regression results showed that there is a negative impact of the secondary sector GDP on public health expenditure. Thus, invalidating the Wagner hypothesis and suggesting that secondary sector GDP cannot serves as an answer for public health expenditure. However, there was a positive relationship between tertiary sector GDP and public health expenditure. The study make case for unceasing provision of an enabling environment that continuously support growth of the tertiary sector.

Fiscal policy and inclusive growth in Nigeria

This study investigated the effect of fiscal policy on inclusive growth in Nigeria from 1985-2022. Secondary data on the human development index, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP, total government expenditure, inequality, and government expenditure on infrastructure and education were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed as the main analytical tool. The ARDL Bounds test showed that in the long run, government expenditure on infrastructure, and education, has a positive and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Also, total government expenditure and the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP have a negative and insignificant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. Interestingly, inequality has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. In the short run, the ratio of total tax revenue to GDP and government expenditure on infrastructure has a negative and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. At the same time, government expenditure on education, total government expenditure, and inequality has a positive and significant relationship with inclusive growth (human development index) in Nigeria. These results highlight the vital role that responsible fiscal policy management plays in promoting sustainable development and inclusive growth. The study recommended a need to augment tax revenue, enhance capital investment, and address income inequality to bolster inclusive growth efforts in the country further.

Study on the influencing factors of the STR based on linear regression-take China as example

In recent years, the student-teacher ratio (STR) has received widespread attention in the field of education. By now, the STR has become an important indicator of education. This article first theoretically analyzes the relationship between the STR and the proportion of the school-age population in the middle school stage to the total population of the country, teacher gender ratio, the proportion of education expenditure in GDP, and GDP per capita, predicting that there is a positive correlation between STR and the proportion of school-age population in the total population, and there is a negative correlation between STR and the rate of women teacher, the proportion of education funds in GDP, and GDP per capita. Then this article establishes the regression equation of STR and the above variables through the data of secondary schools in China in the past 30 years. And it finds that there is a positive correlation between STR and the proportion of the school-age population in the middle school stage to the total population of the country, and there is a negative correlation between STR and the rate of women teachers, and GDP per capita, and there is no linear relation between STR and the proportion of education funds in GDP. Also, this article finds that proportion of the proportion of the school-age population in the middle school stage to the total population of the country, rate of women teachers and GDP per capita have collinearity relationship.

An aggregation-consistent implementation of the Hamilton filter

ABSTRACT I propose a modified implementation of the popular Hamilton filter, to make the cyclical component extracted from an aggregate variable consistent with the aggregation of the cyclical components extracted from its underlying variables. This procedure is helpful in many circumstances, for instance when dealing with a variable that comes from a definition or when the empirical relationship is based on an equilibrium condition of a growth model. The procedure consists of the following steps: 1) build the aggregate variable, 2) run the Hamilton filter regression on the aggregate variable and store the related OLS estimates, 3) use these estimated parameters to predict the trends of all the underlying variables, 4) rescale the constant terms to obtain mean-zero cyclical components that are aggregation-consistent. I consider two applications, exploiting U.S. and Canadian data. The former is based on the GDP expenditure components, while the latter on the GDP of its Provinces and Territories. I find sizable differences between the cyclical components of aggregate GDP computed with and without the adjustment, making it a valuable procedure for both assessing the output gap and validating empirically DSGE models.

Prevalence and clinical profiles of primary sclerosing cholangitis in China: Data from electronic medical records and systematic literature retrieval

Background & aimsEpidemiology of primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is lacking in China. We aimed to estimate the period prevalence and depict the clinical features of PSC in China. MethodsWe identified and included PSC cases between 2000 and 2023 from two sources: electronic medical records (EMR) and systematical literature retrieval (SLR). The period prevalence of PSC was estimated by the multiplier method. Rate ratios (RRs) for PSC prevalence in relation to macroeconomic indicators were calculated by the negative binomial regression model. ResultsA total of 1358 PSC cases were retrieved from 299 hospitals (162 from EMR and 1196 from SLR). Males accounted for 55.7 % of the PSC cases and 25.7 % had concomitant inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). The estimated period prevalence of PSC from 2000 to 2023 was 2.36 (95 % CI: 1.82, 3.34) per 100,000. Males had a numerically higher PSC prevalence than females (2.56, 95 % CI: 1.97, 3.63 vs. 2.14, 95 % CI: 1.65, 3.04 per 100,000). The highest prevalence of PSC was in East China at 4.87 (95 % CI: 3.44, 7.18) per 100,000, followed by North China at 2.94 (95 % CI: 2.33, 3.74) per 100,000, and the lowest in South China at 0.92 (95 % CI: 0.66, 1.30) per 100,000. Regional per capita GDP (RR 1.65, 95 % CI: 1.03, 2.65) and healthcare expenditure (RR 1.94, 95 % CI: 1.13, 3.38) were identified to be associated with PSC prevalence. ConclusionOur study showed the estimated PSC prevalence varied within China, but was generally lower than that in Western countries.

Assessing and Clustering Countries Based on COVID-19 and Related Indicators: Clustering and MULTIMOORA Approaches

The COVID-19 pandemic has been one of humanity's most difficult times. The pandemic spread and impact were not at the same level for all countries. Investigation of the variation of the countries is crucial for policymakers. Therefore, the study proposed to cluster countries according to the number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, vaccinations and related socioeconomic, disease, and health risk factors and rank them by using MULTIMOORA (MOORA plus the full multiplicative form) in an integrated way. The data set consists of 148 countries and 13 indicators. K-Means algorithm was used to cluster countries. Optimal cluster was found as six according to Silhouette Index. The cluster consisted of mostly developed countries ranked as best perform cluster. It had the highest number of COVID-19 vaccinations, GDP per capita, share health expenditure in GDP, life expectancy, elderly population portion, and environmental performance index values, and the least mortality of chronic diseases. Moreover, Norway, Iceland, and Denmark were the best-performing countries in this cluster. In addition to this, Turkey was located in the second-ranked cluster. It was also determined that COVID-19 indicators (cases, deaths, and vaccinations) were related to GDP per capita, environmental index, and life expectancy. As a result, policymakers can develop pandemic policies for country groups separately, and assistance can be provided in this regard according to the priority order of the countries.

Insight into the research history and trends of total anomalous pulmonary venous connection: a bibliometric analysis

BackgroundTotal anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC) is a rare congenital heart disease characterized by the inability of all pulmonary veins to connect to the left atrium. Our previous bibliometric article summarized the characteristics of only the 100 most cited papers in TAPVC research. The purpose of this study was to use comprehensive bibliometric analysis to examine the development history, current status, and future trends in the field of TAPVC.MethodsAll publications on TAPVC published between 2000 and 2023 were collected from the Web of Science Core Collection. The publication and citation data were quantitatively analyzed by publication year, country, institution, author, and journal. Co-authorship and co-occurrence analyses were performed using VOSviewer, and keyword and reference bursts were identified using CiteSpace. Pearson’s test was used to examine the correlations between two continuous variables.ResultsAs of July 20, 2023, we identified 368 publications with 3320 citations. These publications were published in 132 journals and authored by 1835 researchers from 457 institutions in 47 countries. For the number of publications, the top country, top institution, top author, and top journals were the United States (n = 82), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (n = 13), Huiwen Chen (n = 9), and Annals of Thoracic Surgery and Pediatric Cardiology (n = 29 each), respectively. For the number of citations, the top country, top affiliation, top author, and top journal were the United States (n = 1348), University of Toronto (n = 250), Christopher A. Caldarone (n = 315), and Annals of Thoracic Surgery (n = 746), respectively. The number of national publications significantly correlated with GDP (R = 0.887, P < 0.001), research & development (R&D) expenditure (R = 0.375, P = 0.013), population (R = 0.694, P < 0.001), and journals (R = 0.751, P < 0.001). The number of national citations significantly correlated with GDP (R = 0.881, P < 0.001), R&D expenditure (R = 0.446, P = 0.003), population (R = 0.305, P = 0.037), and journals (R = 0.917, P < 0.001). International collaboration in the field of TAPVC was not well developed. The most commonly cited publication discussed era changes in mortality and reoperation rate in TAPVC patients. The most common keywords were “total anomalous pulmonary venous connection” and “congenital heart disease”. The keyword “case report” appeared most recently, with an average occurrence year of 2021.8. The co-occurrence analysis grouped 26 keywords into six themes: surgical repair of TAPVC, postoperative pulmonary vein stenosis, surgical repair of TAPVC patients with heterotaxy, application of echocardiography in diagnosing TAPVC, application of echocardiography in the prenatal diagnosis of TAPVC, and application of the sutureless technique in the surgical repair of TAPVC patients with right atrial isomerism or a single ventricle. Citation burst detection identified 32 references with citation bursts, seven of which had ongoing citation bursts until 2023.ConclusionsThis study conducted a bibliometric analysis to provide a comprehensive overview of TAPVC research. We hope to offer new ideas for promoting development in the field of TAPVC.

The Nexus Between GDP and Military Expenditure in Indonesia: Evidence From Time Series Analysis

The Nexus Between GDP and Military Expenditure in Indonesia: Evidence From Time Series Analysis

Technology and gender: Understanding the changing dynamics of female unemployment in the G7 countries

Technology has profound effects on labour market dynamics. Numerous studies have highlighted the unique opportunities and challenges that technological change presents to specific demographic groups. The aim of the study is to examine the long-term impact of technological changes within organisations on female unemployment at a macro level. From the perspective of the contingency approach and economic growth theories, the research conducts a panel cointegration analysis employing CCE-MG and AMG long-term panel cointegration estimators. The data on the female unemployment rate, the percentage of R&amp;D expenditure in GDP and the ICT patents in total patents in the G7 countries for 1985–2020 is sourced from the OECD statistics. The analysis indicates the presence of an effect of technological change on the female unemployment rate as well as the national variations in their relationship. In particular, in three countries out of seven (Germany, the UK, the USA), there is the relationship between technological advancements and female unemployment. For the most part, increases in the percentage of R&amp;D expenditure and ICT patents augment the female unemployment, though in Germany a rise in R&amp;D expenditure leads to a decrease in it. The results will contribute to understanding the impact of technology-driven changes in organisations on gender-based labour inequality. The research highlights the complexity of the impact of technological advancements on the female employment and underscores the need for shaping related government policies by considering each country’s specific conditions.

GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION – LEVEL, CHANGES, AND THEIR RELATIONSHIP WITH SOCIO- -ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES

Aim: The aim of this article is to examine changes in government expenditures on household consumption in European countries and the relationship of these expenditures with socio-economic indicators. Methods: The study is based on data analysis from 36 European countries, using the Eurostat database and various rankings such as the Happiness Index, Human Development Index, Sustainable Development Goals, and Social Progress Index. The analysis focused on the trends in government expenditures on household consumption and aimed to explore the association between these expenditures and socio-economic indicators. Results: Significant changes in the share of government expenditures on household consumption in the GDP were observed among the studied countries during the period from 2011 to 2022. Some countries increased their expenditures, while others decreased them. Cluster analysis revealed four groups of countries based on the share of government expenditures on household consumption in GDP. Conclusions: There was no direct correlation between the level of government expenditures on household consumption and socio-economic indicators among the studied countries. Instead, variations in socio-economic development were observed among different groups of countries, regardless of the level of government expenditures on household consumption.

Impact Factors of Industrial Pollution and Carbon Reduction under the “Dual Carbon” Target: A Case Study of Urban Aggregation in the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta

China is facing pressure to reduce carbon emissions and control pollution. Promoting the synergy between pollution reduction and carbon reduction has become an inevitable choice to achieve the construction of a beautiful China and meet the dual carbon target. This study examines the main factors influencing industrial pollution and carbon reduction in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomerations based on data on industrial CO2 and local air pollutants (LAP) from 2002 to 2021, using the random forest regression model. The results indicate that (1) industrial CO2 emissions have increased overall, while intensity has decreased. Additionally, both industrial LAP emissions and intensity have decreased. (2) The main factor influencing industrial CO2 and LAP emissions is the proportion of industrial value added above the scale. Additionally, the proportion of R&amp;D internal expenditure in GDP and total trade imports and exports are the main influencing factors of industrial CO2 emissions. The industrial fume and dust removal rate mainly affects industrial LAP emissions. (3) There is a clear non-linear relationship between industrial CO2- and LAP-influencing factors and emissions, which can be attributed to the scale effect factor, the lagging effect of R&amp;D expenditure, and the inappropriate treatment of the “three wastes” by relevant departments that is non-linear. The urban agglomerations of PRD and YRD should prioritize the reduction of carbon emissions, upgrading and transforming their industrial structures, promoting the impact of foreign trade on pollution and carbon reduction, and achieving a balance between sustainable economic development and environmental protection.

Some Causes of Unemployment and Their Relationship with the Creation and the Destruction of Jobs.

There are substantial societal and economic consequences of unemployment. The effects of job creation and destruction on the unemployment rate are examined in this article. It considers job loss and re-employment rates to provide the authentic unemployment rate. Costs associated with looking for work and salary stagnation are the root causes of structural and frictional unemployment. After that, the article delves into the effects of unemployment, including less GDP, tax money, human capital, and welfare expenditure. Fiscal measures such as public expenditure and tax cuts, monetary easing via reduction to interest rates and the money supply, and structural changes to improve skills and labor mobility are all part of the policy solutions that are described to lessen the impact of these factors. This article delves deeply into unemployment’s origins, implications, and policy solutions. Long-term unemployment causes a lot of problems; therefore, solving them will need policies that are well-coordinated in the fiscal, monetary, and structural areas.

Taxation and Socio-Economic Development in Nigeria

The study examined the linkage between taxation and socio-economic development in Nigeria. The study employed a descriptive research design using secondary data collected from various issues of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Planning, Research and Statistics Department, National Bureau of Statistics and Federal Inland Revenue Service bulletins. The study focused on a five year time series study from 2017 – 2021. The study was anchored on the socio-political theory of taxation and the study methodology involved the review of extant literature on two groups of taxes: oil and non-oil taxes and how they are used to bring about socio-economic development proxied by GDP expenditure at constant purchase prices. The review revealed that tax revenue had positive relationships with socio-economic development, but they are grossly inadequate to meet up with GDP expenditures. The study concluded that tax revenues are under generated in relation to crude sales. It was recommended that among others that the government should engage in a complete re-organization of tax administrative machinery to reduce poor documentation of tax receipts, incidence of tax evasion and avoidance to the barest minimum to improve tax revenue and bring more taxpayers into the tax radial in order to enhance socio-economic development.

Spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors of human brucellosis in Mainland China from 2005–2021

BackgroundBrucellosis poses a significant public health concern. This study explores the spatial and temporal dynamic evolution of human brucellosis in China and analyses the spatial heterogeneity of the influencing factors related to the incidence of human brucellosis at the provincial level.MethodsThe Join-point model, centre of gravity migration model and spatial autocorrelation analysis were employed to evaluate potential changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of human brucellosis in mainland China from 2005 to 2021. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (MGWR) models were constructed to analyze the spatial and temporal correlation between the incidence rate of human brucellosis and meteorological and social factors.ResultsFrom 2005 to 2021, human brucellosis in China showed a consistent upward trend. The incidence rate rose more rapidly in South, Central, and Southwest China, leading to a shift in the center of gravity from the North to the Southwest, as illustrated in the migration trajectory diagram. Strong spatial aggregation was observed. The MGWR model outperformed others. Spatio-temporal plots indicated that lower mean annual temperatures and increased beef, mutton, and milk production significantly correlated with higher brucellosis incidence. Cities like Guangxi and Guangdong were more affected by low temperatures, while Xinjiang and Tibet were influenced more by beef and milk production. Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang were more affected by mutton production. Importantly, an increase in regional GDP and health expenditure exerted a notable protective effect against human brucellosis incidence.ConclusionsHuman brucellosis remains a pervasive challenge. Meteorological and social factors significantly influence its incidence in a spatiotemporally specific manner. Tailored prevention strategies should be region-specific, providing valuable insights for effective brucellosis control measures.