Expected Policy Outcome Research Articles

From sleeping beauty to proven solution: The transformation of land readjustment into an informal settlement upgrading tool

Land readjustment (LR) has undergone a significant transformation, evolving from a private-owner-centric mechanism to a proven tool for upgrading low-income, informal settlements. This article traces the efforts by multilateral and bilateral organisations, along with think tanks, to promote LR as both a relevant and implementable tool in the Global South. It delineates three distinct phases in LR's evolution: its initial unsuccessful integration into the UN's Habitat I agenda in 1976, a subsequent phase of recalibration aimed at broadening its applications and outreach in the 2000s, and finally, its endorsement in 2018 as an effective tool for informal settlement upgrading. Focusing on the roles of policy mediators, including bilateral and multilateral organisations, the article sheds light on the practices, politics, and power dynamics at play in the movement and mutation of policy models. It also examines the conditions leading to success and instances where expected policy outcomes and their mobilisation failed to materialise.

Optimizing expected policy outcomes through creative problem structuring: Police human resource development policy in the southeast Sulawesi regional police, Indonesia

This study aims to investigate the problem structuring process using creative methods to create well-structured problems, and how it can optimize the expected policy outcomes of human resource development in regional police. This study uses a qualitative research method by integrating qualitative data from semi-structured interviews and administrative data. Five informants were purposively selected, four of whom were authorized officials in the field of human resource development at regional police institutions, and the other was a prominent civic organization activist. The interview data were analysed using qualitative interactive models, while directed content analysis was applied to administrative data. The results of the study show that the problem structuring process in human resource development policies for regional police is limited to identifying the main elements of problem definition through the partial use of brainstorming methods and classification analysis. Such a problem structuring process cannot create well-structured problems that optimize expected policy outcomes of human resource development. However, the use of creative problem-solving methods in a comprehensive manner can optimize the expected policy outcomes from the development of more critical and collaborative human resource development in the regional police force.

Acute care hospital reform in Japan: Outcomes in quality and market competition

Acute care hospital reform in Japan: Outcomes in quality and market competition This paper describes why the fee system for acute care hospital reform in Japan is beginning to show results. It has been 20 years since the Japanese government introduced a comprehensive fee system (the Diagnosis Procedure Combination/Per- Diem Payment System [DPC/PDPS] ) for acute care hospital reform. While the DPC/PDPS was developed to provide visibility into the management and improvement in the management of acute care hospitals, the government's expected policy outcome was a reduction in inpatient care costs. To date, this goal has not been achieved, partly because the design of the DPC/PDPS is imperfect, and the population is aging, and longevity is increasing. However, other outcomes of introducing the DPC/PDPS are beginning to materialize; the first is an improved quality of medical care through an early discharge and segregation of medical functions, and the other is greater competition in the regional healthcare market.

Socio-technical modelling of UK energy transition under three global SSPs, with implications for IAM scenarios

The potential for using findings from socio-technical energy transition (STET) models in integrated assessment models (IAMs) has been proposed by several authors. A STET simulation model called TEMPEST, which includes the influence of societal and political factors in the UK’s energy transition, is used to model three of the global shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) at the national level. The SSP narratives are interpreted as inputs to TEMPEST, which drive scenario simulations to reflect varying societal preferences for mitigation measures, the level of political support for energy transition, and future economic and population trends. SSP1 and SSP2 come close to meeting UK net zero targets in 2050 but SSP5 does not reach net zero before 2080. An estimate of the total societal, political, and economic cost of scenarios indicates that while SSP1 achieves the best emissions reductions it also has the highest total cost, and SSP2 achieves the best ratio between rate of emissions reductions and total cost. Feasibility appears to be highest for SSP2 since it is the least different to historical precedent. Current UK government energy strategy is closer to the narrative in SSP5, however, which has the highest total cost and exceeds an estimated carbon budget by 32%. Three key TEMPEST findings are recommended for use in IAMs: (i) the uncertainty in emissions savings due to variability in political and societal support for energy transition, (ii) the influence of negative societal pushback to policies in achievement of expected policy outcomes, and (iii) the combined influence on energy service demand of disposable income, public willingness to participate, and user impacts from measures.

Dynamic sentiment sensing of cities with social media data

PurposeA lot of people share their living or travelling experiences about cities by writing posts on social media. Such posts carry multi-dimensional information about the characteristics of cities from the public’s perspective. This paper aims at applying text mining technology to automatically extract city images, which are known as how observers perceive the status of the city, from these social media texts.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes a data processing pipeline for automatic city image extraction and applies sentiment analysis, timing analysis and contrastive analysis in a case study on Wuhan, a central China megacity. Specifically, the city image constructed with social media text and the expected policy outcomes by the government are compared.FindingsResults reveal gaps between the public’s impression and the strategic goals of the government in traffic and environment.Originality/valueThis study contributes a novel approach to assess government performance by complementary data from social media. This case study implies the value of social media-based city image in the identification of gaps for the optimization of government performance.

Alcohol Availability Restriction Policy and Changes in Consumer Behavior in Lithuania in 2016–2019

To reduce alcohol consumption, in 2018 the Lithuanian Government introduced new restrictions on alcohol sales time, consumer age, and alcohol advertising. These restrictions apply to the entire population, regardless of alcohol consumption behavior. Such actions of the government were provoked by the scale of the problem; according to the data provided by the World Health Organization and the European Union Commission, Lithuania sits among the leading countries in alcohol consumption.The policies taken by the government to reduce alcohol consumption are described by many economists as paternalistic, as they reduce an individual’s freedom of decision. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the changes in alcohol consumption behavior after the regulatory measures entered into force and the public attitude towards these measures based on research results.This article presents the results of a study first conducted in December 2016 by the researchers of the Faculty of Economics of Vilnius University and the representatives of the Lithuanian Business Confederation*. The aim of the study was to distinguish the different groups of alcohol consumers and their alcohol consumption behavior and attitudes towards the alcohol restriction policies.** To achieve this aim, an analysis of scientific papers, a population survey, and statistical analysis methods were used.The authors conclude that alcohol restriction policies, met with a relatively favorable public attitude, may have adjusted levels of alcohol consumption and its patterns, but the increase in the number of young people among alcohol consumers is not in line with the expected policy outcomes. The measures adopted did not encourage respondents to give up alcohol in the longer term (12 months).

Do Citizens Vote for Parties or Policies? Evidence from Israel

This paper measures the relative importance of party platforms versus expected policy outcomes in the voting decisions of individuals in a proportional representation (PR) system. It uses survey pre-electoral data from the 2006 Israeli elections. This survey is critical as it provides a set of questions on perceived likelihood and support for different potential coalitions that is unique in its richness and scope I find that the proportion of policy voters is slightly below 10\%. This is smaller than the proportion found in previous studies. The key to explaining this difference is the fact that this paper uses individual subjective perceptions about party platforms and likelihood of the different coalitions. Critically, it is shown that the inclusion of such subjective perceptions in the model improves the fit. Finally, there seems to be no correlation between policy voting and sociodemographics.

Theories of Change in Rural Policy Evaluation

AbstractRural policy evaluation helps to understand the extent to which policies have met pre‐defined objectives, achieve value for money and learn from implementation failures. However, there is increasing debate over the quality of policy evaluation and the extent to which its methods can fully contribute to an understanding of rural policy. Responding to these calls, this article employs a theory driven approach to policy evaluation to assess the social impacts of attempts to reduce animal disease on farms in England. Popular in other policy arenas, theory driven evaluation relies on developing a theory of change to examine the interactions between policy contexts and mechanisms and policy outcomes and determine what works for whom. Drawing on longitudinal qualitative and quantitative research, the article identifies two mechanisms of change to evaluate the Badger Vaccine Deployment Project (BVDP) in England to reduce incidence of bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle. The article shows how these mechanisms – ‘seeing is believing’ and ‘practice similarity’ – are triggered by different contextual factors leading to the failure to deliver expected policy outcomes. We also consider the advantages and limitations to theory based evaluation, and the contribution it can make to the evaluation of other rural development programmes.

Farmer’s decision in selecting the bull semen for artificial insemination in Central Java

This paper aims to analyze the decision of the farmers in selecting the bull semen at the time of insemination. There are several bull semen which are often used in artificial insemination, such as Simmental, Limousine, Ongole Grade or Peranakan Ongole (PO), Brahman, and others. Thus, farmers have to select one of those suits to their needs. Research was conducted to collect data from 200 farmers as respondents who were selected by multistage random sampling in Grobogan, Sukoharjo, Karanganyar, Sragen, Klaten, Rembang, and Blora, Central Java. Results showed that farmers were more interested in breeding their cow with bull semen from Simmental and Limousin. An expected policy outcome can be considered in determining the supply of bull breed semen for artificial insemination in accordance to the demand of the farmers.

Public attitudes toward the minimum wage debate: Effects of partisanship, ideology, beliefs

In this study, we examine the factors that affect public attitudes about raising the federal minimum wage, with a focus on partisanship, ideology, and individuals’ values or beliefs concerning the current state of wealth distribution, the government’s role, and the effects of raising the minimum wage on employment. Using logit analysis on a 2014 CBS News Poll, we find that public attitudes about raising the minimum wage are shaped by not only partisanship or ideology but also individuals’ long-standing values or beliefs regarding policy issues. Particularly, by making those values or beliefs the intervening variables, we show that the effects of partisanship or ideology are moderated by the values or beliefs regarding the minimum wage increase. While plenty of previous research finds political party affiliation as the most crucial factor that shapes individuals’ policy preferences, our study’s findings indicate that the expected policy outcome has the greatest effect on public support for the minimum wage increase, and the effect of the beliefs about the unequal distribution of income or wealth is as strong as that of political affiliation.

Major Barriers to the New Residential Building Energy-Efficiency Promotion in China: Frontlines’ Perceptions

The energy-efficiency promotion of new residential buildings in China has achieved great progress in the past three decades. However, the expected policy outcomes cannot be fully achieved due to the barriers in the policy-making and implementation process. Whereas governments play a critical role in policy formation, perceptions of stakeholders involved in the building life cycle and the industrial value chain (such as developers, design institutes and relevant material manufactures) are fundamental to the successful implementation. To collect and identify the barriers of significant influence on the industry from stakeholders’ perspectives, this paper used a nationwide institutes’ questionnaire to collect stakeholders’ voices regarding the barriers, the corresponding popularity and the severity. All the barriers were categorized according to institutions’ scorings through cluster analysis. The relationships between barriers were also analyzed according to the framework based on policy cycle and policy environment. Results indicated that the core problem is the ineffectiveness translating energy savings into benefits and profits. Accordingly, three major barriers were identified, namely the (1) unsatisfied policy design and implementation; (2) stakeholders’ lack of implementation capacity in developing and constructing high-performance new residential building projects and adopting relevant technologies; and (3) insufficient legalization of relevant market. Other identified barriers either were those not agreed by all institutions, or those could be eliminated easily after the removal of the above three barriers.

Two decades of Brazil’s participatory model for water resources management: from enthusiasm to frustration

ABSTRACTIn January 2017, the water community in Brazil celebrated the 20th anniversary of the promulgation of Brazil’s National Water Resources Policy (Federal Law 9.433). However, Brazil’s participatory model has not delivered the expected policy outcomes yet. Inclusiveness in decision making has become pointless since mechanisms of social control and accountability are almost nonexistent. Despite the widely celebrated opportunities for stakeholder engagement and decentralized water management, implementation of water policies remains largely dependent on state actors. These findings indicate the need for carefully planned and evidence-based water reforms in Brazil.

TTIP and legislative‒executive relations in EU trade policy

This paper analyses Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) negotiations in order to assess how the move towards tighter economic integration within the EU‒US strategic partnership impacts on legislative‒executive relations in EU trade policy. The analysis examines the institutional, substantive and party political dimensions of national parliaments’ scrutiny of the Common Commercial Policy. Based on insights into both domestic and EU channels of parliamentary monitoring of TTIP negotiations, the paper argues that, although the government remains the central object of democratic control, the involvement of national parliaments in transatlantic trade extends to encompass the EU’s own transatlantic and trade policies. This is rooted in the legislatures’ legal capacity to constrain the executive in the negotiation, conclusion and, where applicable, ratification phases of EU trade agreements. It is argued that national parliamentary influence takes the shape of politicisation of the legitimacy of the expected policy outcomes of these agreements.

The Implications of Mandating Photovoltaics on all New Homes

The transition to near zero energy and near zero carbon homes places the policy focus firmly on the widespread application of renewable energy technologies by the mainstream building industry. This systemic change from typical business practices for house design and construction to embrace the application of photovoltaic technology is likely to come with significant risk to policy outcomes. Using evidence drawn from a reasonably large near zero energy housing estate in Australia, the use of building energy regulations to facilitate the application of photovoltaics may not deliver the expected policy outcome. Lessons learnt from Australia point to issues related to regulatory design, industry training, and compliance assessment. Addressing these issues will be essential to achieve low carbon policy intentions.

Electoral Accountability and Responsive Democracy

We consider a canonical two-period model of elections with adverse selection (hidden preferences) and moral hazard (hidden actions), in which neither voters nor politicians can commit to future choices. We prove existence of electoral equilibria, and we show that office holders mix between “taking it easy” and “going for broke” in the first period. Even in the presence of a finite horizon, we establish that increasing office motivation leads to arbitrarily high expected policy outcomes. We conclude that the mechanism of electoral accountability has the potential to achieve responsiveness of democratic politics when electoral incentives are sufficiently large.

The merits of adding complexity: non-separable preferences in spatial models of European Union politics

This paper challenges the assumption of separable preferences that has been applied throughout the existing empirical research on European Union (EU) legislative politics. Yet our analysis reveals that non-separable preferences are in fact a widespread phenomenon in EU politics. In many cases actors’ spending preferences are conditional upon the expected policy outcome, but not vice versa. In order to appropriately model such non-reciprocity, we propose a simple modification to the standard Euclidean utility function. Applying simulation techniques, we demonstrate that overlooking non-separable preferences may have caused a substantial bias in the empirical evaluation of competing models of EU legislative politics. Specifically, models that constrain the set of feasible outcomes to either the Winset and/or the core must rely on a correct specification of actors’ utility functions. Therefore, a false assumption of core separable preferences significantly disadvantages these models vis-à-vis unconstrained models. Moreover, our findings underline the agenda-setting power of the European Commission for proposals that involve either a spending decision or the delegation of power from the national to the European level.

The efficacy and efforts of interest groups in post elections policy formation

This paper presents a new model of interest groups and policy formation in the legislature. In our setting, the already given party ideological predispositions and power distribution determine the expected policy outcome. Our analysis applies to the case of un-enforced or enforced party discipline as well as to two-party and multi-party (proportional representation) electoral systems. The interest groups’ objective is to influence the outcome in their favor by engaging in a contest that determines the final decision in the legislature. Our first result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideologically closer party and, in general, the coalition/opposition blocks of parties under un-enforced party or coalition/opposition discipline. Such dominance is defined in terms of ideological inclination weighted by power. Our second result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideology in the ruling coalition (party) in a majoritarian system with enforced coalition (party) discipline. We then clarify under what condition an interest group prefers to direct its lobbying efforts to two parties or the two coalition and opposition blocks of parties under un-enforced discipline rather than to the members of the ruling coalition (party) under enforced discipline. The lobbying efforts under un-enforced and enforced party discipline are also compared. Finally, we clarify the effect of ideological predispositions and power on the efforts of the interest groups.

The Efficacy and Efforts of Interest Groups in Post Elections Policy Formation

This paper presents a new model of interest groups and policy formation in the legislature. In our setting, the already given party ideological predispositions and power distribution determine the expected policy outcome. Our analysis applies to the case of un-enforced or enforced party discipline as well as to two-party and multi-party (proportional representation) electoral systems. The interest groups' objective is to influence the outcome in their favor by engaging in a contest that determines the final decision in the legislature. Our first result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideologically closer party and, in general, the coalition/opposition blocks of parties under un-enforced party or coalition/opposition discipline. Such dominance is defined in terms of ideological inclination weighted by power. Our second result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideology in the ruling coalition (party) in a majoritarian system with enforced coalition (party) discipline. We then clarify under what condition an interest group prefers to direct its lobbying efforts to two parties or the two coalition and opposition blocks of parties under un-enforced discipline rather than to the members of the ruling coalition (party) under enforced discipline. The lobbying efforts under un-enforced and enforced party discipline are also compared. Finally, we clarify the effect of ideological predispositions and power on the efforts of the interest groups.

The Efficacy and Efforts of Interest Groups in Post Elections Policy Formation

This paper presents a new model of interest groups and policy formation in the legislature. In our setting, the already given party ideological predispositions and power distribution determine the expected policy outcome. Our analysis applies to the case of unenforced or enforced party discipline as well as to two-party and multi-party (proportional representation) electoral systems. The interest groups’ objective is to influence the outcome in their favor by engaging in a contest that determines the final decision in the legislature. Our first result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideologically closer party and, in general, the coalition/opposition blocks of parties under unenforced party or coalition/opposition discipline. Such dominance is defined in terms of ideological inclination weighted by power. Our second result clarifies how the success of an interest group hinges on the dominance of its ideology in the ruling coalition (party) in a majoritarian system with enforced coalition (party) discipline. We then clarify under what condition an interest group prefers to direct its lobbying efforts to two parties or the two coalition and opposition blocks of parties under unenforced discipline rather than to the members of the ruling coalition (party) under enforced discipline. The lobbying efforts under unenforced and enforced party discipline are also compared. Finally, we clarify the effect of ideological predispositions and power on the efforts of the interest groups.

Clientelism and aid

Using a model of probabilistic voting, we analyze the impact of aid on the political equilibrium in the recipient country or region. We consider politicians with mixed motives: they are interested in promoting social welfare but also value the benefit of holding office. We label as clientelistic the politician who most values the benefit of being in power. We find that the impact of aid on the political equilibrium and therefore on the quality of policy in the recipient country (using utilitarian social welfare as a benchmark) ultimately depends on the value of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption. When elasticity is low, the expected policy outcome gets further away from the socially desirable policy set. This substitution of policy quality for aid can help to explain the poor performance of aid in improving policy. Perhaps more surprising is the opposite case, which arises for high values of elasticity of marginal utility: an increase in aid tilts the equilibrium policy towards the welfare-maximizing policy set.