Expected Equity Returns Research Articles

RIM-based value premium and factor pricing using value-price divergence

We document that value-to-price, the ratio of Residual-Income-Model-based valuation to market price, subsumes the power of book-to-market ratio and many other value or quality measures in predicting stock returns. Long-short value-to-price portfolios hedge against momentum, revitalize the seemingly missing value premium over past decades, and generate significant returns after adjusting for common factors. The value-price-divergence (VPD) factor constructed from the average returns of these portfolios within small and big stocks is not spanned by these known factors. Max Sharpe ratio and constrained R-squared tests reveal that VPD is a better substitute for the traditional value factor and that a four-factor model using the VPD, market, momentum, and size factors outperforms most extant benchmarks in explaining the cross-section of expected equity returns, including value-to-price portfolios as test assets. The findings remain robust under alternative specifications of equity cost of capital.

Equity Return Expectations and Financial Wealth Holdings of U.S. Households

Abstract This paper examines the association between stock market return expectations and financial wealth holdings of older adults using the 2016 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Our study finds that less than 30% of individuals assigned a greater than 50% probability that the market will earn a positive nominal return in the following year. However, considerable heterogeneities were observed across racial/ethnic groups. Health status, the cognitive functioning of older adults, and expectations of positive stock market return were positively associated with greater financial wealth holdings among households. Our study also finds that older age, and being female were associated with a higher probability of expected equity returns in the following period. Health status, cognition, and equity return expectations were positively associated with the financial wealth holdings of households. African Americans, Hispanics, and other races were negatively associated with the probability of equity return expectations and financial wealth holdings when compared with the reference group of non-Hispanic Whites. Overall, this study contributes to the literature by applying a unique mathematically derived measure of future return expectations, and extends the literature on equity return expectations and the financial portfolios of households. The negative association between being African American or Hispanic and financial wealth holdings is concerning. The findings from this study inform policy makers, and underscore the need for prioritizing programs and policies that can be play a critical role in building human capital, in promoting financial capability, and in bridging the financial wealth gap for households belonging to the disadvantaged and underserved racial ethnic groups.

Tax expense surprise and emerging markets equity returns

This study investigates the relationship between tax expense surprise and expected equity returns in emerging markets. Using a broad sample of equities from 27 emerging countries, we find a strong positive link between tax expense surprise and the cross-sectional expected stock returns. Univariate portfolio analyses of the overall sample show that equities in the highest tax expense surprise quintile earn 9.48% higher risk-adjusted annual returns than equities in the lowest tax expense surprise quintile. This relationship remains robust to alternative definitions of tax expense surprise, even after controlling for other anomalies related to financial and tax variables in a regression framework. We also examine whether tax enforcement enhances the value relevance of tax expense surprise. The findings show that tax expense surprise is related to expected equity returns only when tax enforcement is high. Thus, tax enforcement plays a significant role in the value relevance of tax expense shocks.

Illiquidity risk and equity trading performance: A statistical analysis

Subject. The article considers the development of special statistical methods for estimating and analyzing the liquidity risk. Objectives. The purpose is to improve the methodology for statistical appraisal and analysis of risk in equity trading. Methods. The study rests both on well-known methods for equity risk analysis and my own development results (calculation of equity annual illiquidity ratio, formation of illiquidity risk factor). The data analyzed in this paper come from the Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and cover January 2011 to May 2021. The sample included all common stocks traded on MOEX and issuers’ financial statements. I also apply analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, and methods of comparison and grouping. Results. I calculated monthly illiquidity factor as zero-investment long-short portfolio. I examined the impact of illiquidity risk on the return dynamics of size, book-to-market ratio sorted portfolios. Conclusions. The study shows that expected equity returns are related cross-sectionally to the illiquidity factor. The evidence strongly supports the hypothesis that the illiquidity risk factor is priced. The premium for this risk is positive and offers higher expected returns in equities with strong illiquidity. However, for liquid equities no significant premium is revealed. The offered approach to the factor equity risk analysis based on illiquidity risk enables a true picture of how the risks impact the equity trading performance and how they can be improved in the future.

Relationship between cash holdings and expected equity returns: evidence from Pacific alliance countries

Purpose This paper aims to examine the relationship between cash holdings (CH) and expected equity return in a sample of firms of Pacific alliance countries. Design/methodology/approach This paper constructed a panel of Pacific alliance firms for the period ranging from 2010 to 2016. This paper estimated different specification models using multivariate regression, and the statistical technique used to validate the hypothesis was panel data. Findings Results showed that there is a positive relationship between CH and expected equity return (r). The relationship between CH and systematic risk (ß) was estimated and this paper found a positive and statistically significant association. Findings suggest that corporate liquidity contains underlying information that contributes to explain the expected equity return, which, if ignored, can produce quite misleading results. Originality/value The results of this study have both academic and practical implications. First, the findings of the research contribute to a better understanding of the asset pricing models in emerging countries. On the other hand, the results obtained in this study can serve shareholders to make better estimations of the expected equity return, so investors can improve the risk-return trade-off due to the model allow a better estimation of the risk-return relation.

The term structure of equity risk premia

We estimate a regime-switching model for the equity term structure with Bayesian methods. Our approach accounts for the data sample being unrepresentative of the population distribution of regimes. We find that (i) the term structure of expected equity dividend strip returns is downward sloping in recessions and upward sloping in expansions, and (ii) the unconditional term structure of expected equity returns is positively sloped. Our estimation shows that the sample unrepresentativeness induces a downward bias in the estimate of the equity term structure slope. We present a regime-switching consumption-based asset-pricing model that matches the empirical findings.

Equity return anomalies in Turkish markets

Purpose- The purpose of this study is to investigate the predictive power of various anomalies in the cross-section of equity returns in Borsa Istanbul. Methodology- Covering a sample period between 1988 and 2018, this study implements univariate portfolio analyses. Specifically, each month, stocks are sorted into quintile portfolios based on one anomaly at a time. Next, the one-month-ahead equal- and value-weighted portfolio returns are calculated for each quintile to test whether the return spread between the extreme anomaly portfolios is economically and statistically significant. Findings- The findings using the whole sample document that market beta, firm size, lagged return and lottery demand have a significant and negative relation with future stock returns. In contrast, book-to-market ratio, investment and profitability have a strong positive relation with expected equity returns. Conclusion- All anomalies that are shown to predict U.S. equity returns are not documented in Turkey. Except for the investment anomaly, the directions of these anomalies are in line with the existing literature in the U.S.

LİKİDİTE HASSASİYETİNİN BORSA İSTANBUL’DAKİ PAY SENETLERİNİN GETİRİLERİ ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ

This study investigates the equity exposure to liquidity risk factors in Borsa Istanbul between 1992-2015. Stock level cross-sectional regression and univariate portfolio analysis are utilized to examine the predictive ability of liquidity risk in Turkish markets. The widest range of illiquidity proxies are used to test this effect. Cross-sectional regression analyses show that illiquidity betas predict expected equity returns. This relation remains robust when well-known priced factors are controlled for. The univariate portfolio analysis documents that equities that are more sensitive to illiquidity shocks generate 5% higher annualized returns than those that are less sensitive to liquidity shocks. Hence, these findings show that liquidity exposure is indeed priced for equity returns in Borsa Istanbul.

Systemic Risk Modeling

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/ general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemic risk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterparty risk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a “Minsky" cycle of optimism. The empirical model uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equity returns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a bad macro-outcome. Theses “cross-sectional" moments are used to re-calibrate the theoretical model and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemic risk.

Tax Expense Surprise and Emerging Market Equity Returns

This study investigates the relation between tax expense surprise and expected equity returns in emerging markets. Utilizing a broad sample of equities from 27 emerging countries, we find strongly positive link between tax expense surprise and the cross-sectional expected stock returns. Univariate portfolio analyses in the overall sample show that equities in the highest tax expense surprise quintile earn 8.52% higher risk adjusted annual return than equities in the lowest tax expense surprise quintile. This relation remains robust to alternative definitions of tax expense surprise and even after controlling for other anomalies related to financial and tax variables in a regression framework. We document that tax expense surprise strongly predicts expected stock returns in emerging markets.

Systemic Risk Modeling: How Theory Can Meet Statistics

We propose a framework to link empirical models of systemic risk to theoretical network/general equilibrium models used to understand the channels of transmission of systemicrisk. The theoretical model allows for systemic risk due to interbank counterpartyrisk, common asset exposures/fire sales, and a 'Minsky cycle of optimism. The empiricalmodel uses stock market and CDS spreads data to estimate a multivariate density of equityreturns and to compute the expected equity return for each bank, conditional on a badmacro-outcome. Theses 'cross-sectional moments are used to re-calibrate the theoreticalmodel and estimate the importance of the Minsky cycle of optimism in driving systemicrisk.

Winners from Winners: A Tale of Risk Factors

Starting from the twelve distinct risk factors in four well-established asset pricing models, a pool we refer to as the winners, we construct and compare 4,095 asset pricing models and find that the model with the risk factors, Mkt, SMB, MOM, ROE, MGMT, and PEAD, performs the best in terms of Bayesian posterior probability, out-of-sample predictability, and Sharpe ratio. A more extensive model comparison of 8,388,607 models, constructed from the twelve winners plus eleven principal components of anomalies unexplained by the winners, shows the benefit of incorporating information in genuine anomalies in explaining the cross-section of expected equity returns.

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A Corporate Financing-Based Asset Pricing Model

I show that an asset pricing model for the equity claims of a value-maximizing firm can be constructed from its optimal financial contracting behavior. I study a dynamic contracting model in which firms trade off the costs and benefits of a given promise to pay external lenders in a specific economic state. Deals between firms and financiers reveal the importance of that state for firm's equity value, namely the stochastic discount factor the firm responds to. I empirically evaluate the model in the cross section of expected equity returns. I find that the financial contracting approach goes a long way in rationalizing observed cross-sectional differences in average returns, also in comparison to leading asset pricing models. In addition, the model discloses that two easily measured variables, the growth rates on net worth and profitability, generate sizeable cross-sectional spreads in returns. Finally, a calibrated version of the model is broadly consistent with observed corporate policies of US listed firms.

Robust hedging in incomplete markets

AbstractWe considered a pension fund that needs to hedge uncertain long-term liabilities. We modeled the pension fund as a robust investor facing an incomplete market and fearing model uncertainty for the evolution of its liabilities. The robust agent is assumed to minimize the shortfall between the assets and liabilities under an endogenous worst-case scenario by means of solving a min–max robust optimization problem. When the funding ratio is low, robustness reduces the demand for risky assets. However, cherishing the hope of covering the liabilities, a substantial risk exposure is still optimal. A longer investment horizon or a higher funding ratio weakens the investor's fear of model misspecification. If the expected equity return is overestimated, the initial capital requirement for hedging can be decreased by following the robust strategy.

The impact of mandatory IFRS adoption on capital markets: evidence from Korea

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effects of adoption of the mandatory International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) on the cost of equity capital in a unique Korean setting. In Korea, individual financial statements were taken as primary financial statements. Before the adoption of IFRS, consolidated financial statements were taken as supplementary financial statements.Design/methodology/approachThe authors measure the cost of equity using the average estimates from the implied cost of capital models proposed by Claus and Thomas (2001), Gebhardt et al. (2001), Easton (2004) and Ohlson and Juettner-Nauroth (2005), using it as the primary dependent variable. Mandatory IFRS adoption, the independent variable in this study, is assigned a value of 1 for the post-adoption period and 0 otherwise.FindingsUsing a sample of listed Korean companies during the period from 2000 to 2013, the authors find evidence of a significant reduction in the cost of equity capital in Korean listed companies after mandatory adoption of the IFRS in 2011, after controlling for a set of market variables.Originality/valueThis study is one of a growing body of literature on the relations between mandatory IFRS adoption and the cost of equity capital (Easley and O’Hara 2004; Covrig et al. 2007; Lambert et al. 2007; Daske et al. 2008). According to the results of this study, increased financial disclosure and enhanced information comparability, along with changes in legal and institutional enforcement, seem to have had a joint effect on the cost of equity capital, leading to a large decrease in expected equity returns.

Market Implied Expected Equity Returns: Markets Know Best

Market Implied Expected Equity Returns: Markets Know Best

Asset Pricing Implications of Hiring Demographics

This paper documents that U.S. industries that shift their skilled workforce toward young employees exhibit higher expected equity returns. The young-minus-old (YMO) hiring return spread comoves negatively with value-minus-growth while being significantly positive on average. Exposure to the YMO spread accounts for a significant portion of annual momentum profits at the industry level. I find that an adjustment of the skilled workforce toward young employees is associated with greater productivity in new capital inputs of an industry. This motivates a risk-based explanation for the YMO spread, and its interaction with value and momentum. A model of investment and hiring where young and experienced employees are equipped with differential roles in production and investment can account for the empirical findings.

Is There a Distress Risk Anomaly? Pricing of Systematic Default Risk in the Cross-section of Equity Returns*

The standard measures of distress risk ignore the fact that firm defaults are correlated and that some defaults are more likely to occur in bad times. The paper uses risk premium computed from corporate credit spreads to measure a firm's exposure to systematic variation in default risk. Unlike previously used measures that proxy for a firm's physical probability of default, credit spreads proxy for a risk-adjusted default probability and thereby explicitly account for the non-diversifiable component of distress risk. In contrast to prior findings in the literature, the authors find that stocks that have higher credit risk premia, that is stocks with higher systematic default risk exposures, have higher expected equity returns. Consistent with structural models of default, they show that the premium to a high-minus-low systematic default risk hedge portfolio is largely explained by the market factor. The authors confirm the robustness of these results by using an alternative systematic default risk factor for firms that do not have bonds outstanding. The results show no evidence of firms with high systematic default risk exposure delivering anomalously low returns.

Industry Competition, Credit Spreads, and Levered Equity Returns

This paper examines the relation between industry competition, credit spreads, and levered equity returns. I build a quantitative model where firms make investment, financing, and default decisions subject to aggregate and idiosyncratic risk. Firms operate in heterogeneous industries that differ by the intensity of product market competition. Higher competition reduces profit opportunities and increases default risk for debtholders. Equityholders are protected against default risk due to the option value arising from limited liability. In equilibrium, competitive industries are characterized by higher credit spreads, but lower expected equity returns. I find strong empirical support for these predictions across concentration terciles.