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Related Topics

  • Exchange Rate Volatility
  • Exchange Rate Volatility
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Articles published on Exchange rate

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  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1002/nbm.70246
Sensitivity of Literature Mapping Methods to the Underlying Magnetization Transfer Parameters.
  • Apr 1, 2026
  • NMR in biomedicine
  • Jakob Assländer

Magnetization transfer (MT) has been identified as the principal source of variability in the MRI literature. This study assesses the sensitivity of established mapping techniques to variations in the underlying MT parameters. For each -mapping method, the observed was simulated as a function of the underlying MT parameters , corresponding to different brain regions of interest (ROIs) at 3T. As measures of sensitivity, the derivatives were computed and analyzed with a linear mixed-effects model as a function of , ROI, pulse sequence type (e.g., inversion-recovery and variable-flip angle), and the individual sequences. The analyzed -mapping sequences have a considerable sensitivity to changes in the semisolid spin pool size of the free, of the semisolid spin pool, and the (inverse) exchange rate . All derivatives vary considerably with the underlying MT parameters and between pulse sequences. In general, the derivatives cannot be determined by the sequence type but rather depend on the implementation details of the sequence. One notable exception is that variable-flip-angle methods are, in general, more sensitive to the exchange rate than inversion-recovery methods. Variations in the observed can be caused by several underlying MT parameters, and the sensitivity to each parameter depends on both the underlying MT parameters and the sequence.

  • New
  • Research Article
  • 10.1016/j.chieco.2026.102688
Transparency matters: Public vs. non-public use of the counter-cyclical factor and renminbi exchange rate volatility
  • Apr 1, 2026
  • China Economic Review
  • Yike Sun + 3 more

Transparency matters: Public vs. non-public use of the counter-cyclical factor and renminbi exchange rate volatility

  • Research Article
  • 10.1097/prs.0000000000013032
Surgical Outcomes of Prepectoral Two-Stage Breast Reconstruction in Patients Treated with Pembrolizumab or CDK4/6 Inhibitors.
  • Mar 13, 2026
  • Plastic and reconstructive surgery
  • Yasmine Ibrahim + 9 more

Targeted therapies, including pembrolizumab and CDK4/6 inhibitors, have expanded treatment options for breast cancer subtypes such as triple-negative (TNBC) and hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative cancers. However, their impact on surgical outcomes in two-stage prepectoral breast reconstruction remains unclear. This study evaluates surgical outcomes in patients receiving pembrolizumab or CDK4/6 inhibitors. A retrospective review was conducted of all patients at a single institution who underwent immediate two-stage prepectoral reconstruction at a single center between January 2018 and October 2024 with ≥3 months of follow-up. Exclusion criteria included autologous, delayed, or direct-to-implant reconstructions, and chemotherapy after implant exchange. Variables analyzed included cancer characteristics, treatments, and postoperative complications. Major complications were defined as those requiring readmission or reoperation. Statistical analyses were performed using Fisher's Exact and Wilcoxon Rank Sum tests. Of 472 patients, 27 received pembrolizumab and 30 received CDK4/6 inhibitors. Pembrolizumab had significantly higher seroma rates during expansion (44.4% vs. 27%, p=0.05). After implant exchange, major complications (26.3% vs. 8%, p=0.02) and reoperation rates (19.1% vs. 3.7%, p=0.01) were significantly higher. Patients receiving CDK4/6 inhibitors did not experience an increased risk of infection; in fact, the observed rate of minor infections was lower (0.0% vs. 12.4%, p=0.04), although no significant differences were seen in other outcomes. Pembrolizumab is a promising therapy for TNBC, but its association with increased seromas, major complications, and reoperations warrants further investigation. Use of CDK4/6 inhibitors was not associated with an increased risk of infection following tissue expander placement.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1152/ajpendo.00292.2025
Effects of acute and recurrent clamp-induced hypoglycemia on resting metabolic rate in healthy adults.
  • Mar 12, 2026
  • American journal of physiology. Endocrinology and metabolism
  • Daniel Malmsiø + 4 more

Background: Hypoglycemia is a common and serious side effect to insulin treatment, which has been studied extensively. However, resting metabolic rate during hypoglycemia, and its potential adaptions to recurrent hypoglycemia, has not been characterized. Therefore, we assessed resting metabolic rate before, during, and after recurrent clamped hypoglycemia in healthy males, conjecturing, by evolutionary reasoning, that energy would be conserved during and after recurrent hypoglycemia. Methods: We recruited 31 subjects, who underwent a four-day experiment. Day 1 and 4 with adrenaline infusion and day 2 and 3 with recurrent clamped hypoglycemia (2.8 mmol/l). Indirect calorimetric measurements of O2 consumption, CO2 production, respiratory exchange rate (RER), energy expenditure (EE), and glucose oxidation (GO) were made with a ventilated hood system. Results: We found that subjects undergoing acute hypoglycemia increased O2, CO2, RER, EE, and GO (e.g., first hypoglycemia: mean difference of 10.7 ml/min, 18.2 ml/min, 0.03, 89.6 kcal/day, and 0.05 g/min in O2, CO2, and EE, respectively; all p-values <0.05) compared to euglycemia. Further, the baseline values of O2, CO2, RER, EE, and GO increased after recurrent hypoglycemia (day 4 vs day 1): O2:9.22 ml/min (p-value = 0.036); CO2:40.30 ml/min (p-value < 0.0001); RER: 0.12 (p-value < 0.0001); EE: 117.0 kcal/day (p-value = 0.001); GO: 0.105 g/min; (p-value < 0.00001). Conclusion: Resting metabolic rate and glucose oxidation increased acutely in response to insulin-induced hypoglycemia. More notably, a similar increase in resting metabolic rate was observed following recurrent hypoglycemia, suggesting a sustained stress response the day following the last hypoglycemic episode.

  • Research Article
  • 10.36713/epra26409
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FOREIGN PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, AND CHANGES IN DOLLAR RUPEE EXCHANGE RATE IN INDIA: A STUDY OF RECENT TRENDS
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • EPRA International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research (IJMR)
  • Mrs Parvathy Av + 1 more

Foreign investment has been considered to be an important source of investment in developed economies which are deprived of necessary avenues for mobilising funds internally. But, the flow of foreign investment is circumscribed by many factors. Technically speaking, changes in exchange rate influences the flow of foreign investment to a country. Exchange rate movements and FDI inflows in India exhibit a long-run relationship, although short-run causal effects are weak. Johansen test confirms a long-run relationship between the variables. Granger causality results show no strong short-run causal link. The VECM results indicate a significant long-run adjustment mechanism. Exchange rate movements play an important role in shaping foreign direct investment dynamics in the long run. While short-run causal effects are limited, impulse response analysis indicates that exchange rate shocks can temporarily stimulate FDI inflows. Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse Response Function (IRF), Grange Causality Test (GCT), Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), are used in this paper. Keywords: FDI, Net FDI, FPI, Underinvestment, Volatility, Foreign Trade Balance, Exports and Imports, Dollar-Rupee Exchange Rate

  • Research Article
  • 10.36713/epra26477
IMPACT OF FUEL SUBSIDY REMOVAL AND EXCHANGE RATE UNIFICATION ON ACADEMIC STAFF PRODUCTIVITY IN TERTIARY INSTITUTION IN NORTHWEST NIGERIA
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • EPRA International Journal of Research &amp; Development (IJRD)
  • Mustapha Abdullahi Aliyu + 2 more

This study examined the impact of Fuel Subsidy Removal and Exchange Rate Unification on Academic Productivity in Northwest Geopolitical zone of Nigeria. The conducted in selected Federal Universities and Polytechnics in the states of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kano and Sokoto States administered questionnaire on a sample of 368 academics. Both ANOVA and independent sample-test were employed to test the impact of fuel subsidy removal in sample productivity, productivity declines and resilience to the effects of the policy. The findings revealed that research and publication activities are notably affected by the policy changes where articles in lead journals (mean = 2.93) and conference paper publications (mean = 2.63) show decline, reflecting the rising costs of publication fees, conference registration, and international travel. Additionally, on-going research activities recorded a lower mean of 2.33, indicating that many research projects may be delayed or abandoned. Furthermore, purchase of research materials, chemicals, and reagents recorded a high mean of 3.07, indicating strong agreement that increased costs have hindered such activities. This is as community service activities recorded a mean of 2.77, suggesting that academics’ engagement beyond the campus has declined due to financial and mobility constraints. The study therefore, recommends among other things that, Federal Government employ targeted Transportation and Energy Support for Academics through the introduction of subsidized staff transport systems to mitigate the mobility challenges of fuel subsidy removal. While, management in tertiary institution in the area of study should, prioritized investment in alternative and renewable energy sources on campuses to reduce dependence on costly generators. Keywords: Academics, Productivity, Fuel Subsidy Removal

  • Research Article
  • 10.46806/jep.v32i2.1629
Cash optimization with cash management model approach: The case of PT Pertamina Gas (Pertagas)
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • Jurnal Ekonomi Perusahaan
  • William Ben Gunawan

This study examines the optimization of corporate cash management at Pertagas amid heightened volatility in the energy sector, fluctuating exchange rates, inflationary pressures, and internal demands for CapEx–OpEx efficiency. Using a quantitative approach, this research evaluates Pertagas’s cash cycle and liquidity profile, and applies five cash management models—Baumol, Beranek, Miller-Orr, Stone, and Orgler—to determine optimal cash balances under varying assumptions of certainty and uncertainty. Results indicate substantial volatility in net cash flows, with a Value at Risk (VaR) of –USD 81.48 million at the 95% confidence level. Model estimations recommend optimal daily cash levels ranging from USD 1.05 million (Baumol) to USD 4.51 million (Miller-Orr), significantly lower than the company’s existing Rp 200 billion (≈ USD 12.5 million) policy threshold, implying notable opportunity costs from holding idle cash. The Orgler model further shows that Pertagas could generate up to USD 10.89 million annually through optimized deployment of surplus liquidity. The study recommends integrating stochastic and forecasting-based models, strengthening cash monitoring systems, and revising minimum cash policies to enhance liquidity, profitability, and financial resilience.

  • Research Article
  • 10.7189/001c.157943
Cost of managing drug-susceptible tuberculosis: the case of the diagnostic and treatment health center at Makala General Referral Hospital in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • Journal of Global Health Economics and Policy
  • Prince Malonda Ma Ndungi + 3 more

Background Tuberculosis, the second deadliest infectious disease in the world after COVID-19, is caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. This bacterium most commonly affects the lungs. Economic and financial barriers can hinder access to healthcare services for the diagnosis and management of this disease. The objective of this study was to determine the cost of managing drug-sensitive tuberculosis in the Selembao Health Zone, specifically at the Diagnostic and Treatment Center (CSDT) of Makala General Referral Hospital. Methods A descriptive cross-sectional study was conducted from February 24 to March 17, 2024, involving 122 tuberculosis patients who were diagnosed, treated, and declared cured at the tuberculosis screening and treatment center (CSDT) Makala, in the Selembao Health Zone. A simple random probability sampling method was used. Descriptive analyses were performed to determine the costs (direct, indirect, and total) associated with tuberculosis management. Results The direct cost of managing drug-sensitive tuberculosis per patient in our study area (Selembao) ranged from 139,150 to 787,150 CDF (50.6 to 286.2 USD), with a median of 214,150 CDF (77.9 USD), based on the exchange rate of 2,750 CDF for 1 USD during the study period. The indirect cost per patient was estimated at 6,000 to 7,860,000 CDF (2.2 to 2,858.2 USD), with a median of 796,000 CDF (289.5 USD). The total cost of care ranged from 172,150 to 8,040,000 CDF (62.6 to 2,923.6 USD), with a median of 1,026,650 CDF (373.3 USD). The share of the DRC government in supporting the management of this disease was estimated at 12.1% of the total cost. Conclusions The management of drug-sensitive tuberculosis remains a significant financial burden not only for patients but also for their families and households. We therefore recommend substantial government support to enhance the coverage of this condition.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1021/acs.jpclett.6c00464
Accurate Measurements of Solvent Exchange in Asparagine and Glutamine Side-Chain NH2 Groups of Proteins by z-Exchange NMR Spectroscopy.
  • Mar 11, 2026
  • The journal of physical chemistry letters
  • Vitali Tugarinov + 1 more

NMR methodology is developed for accurate measurements of solvent exchange rates in asparagine and glutamine side-chain NH2 groups of proteins by z-exchange spectroscopy. A rigorous model of solvent exchange in NH2 groups of proteins dissolved in a 50%/50% (v/v) mixture of H2O/D2O solvents, that incorporates the independently measured rates of hindered rotation around the carboxamide C'-N bond, allowed determining solvent exchange rates for side-chain amides of the model proteins ubiquitin and GB1, as well as a subset of NH2 groups of a buried cavity mutant of T4 lysozyme. In agreement with earlier findings, the amide protons at E (anti) positions usually exchange faster with the solvent than their Z (syn) counterparts. The temperature dependence of the rates of hindered rotation and solvent exchange in ubiquitin showed that the two processes are enthalpically driven and characterized by very similar activation enthalpies of ∼70 kJ/mol.

  • Research Article
  • 10.14419/18jnvf34
The Public Debt Dynamics in The Philippines: Evidence from ‎ARDL and VECM Models
  • Mar 10, 2026
  • International Journal of Accounting and Economics Studies
  • Aileen L Camba

This study examines the dynamics of public debt in the Philippines using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Vector Error ‎Correction Model (VECM) frameworks over the period 2005–2023. The empirical findings indicate that public debt dynamics are driven ‎predominantly by short-run macro-financial shocks rather than long-run structural factors. Although government expenditure exhibits a ‎positive coefficient in the long-run estimates, it is not statistically significant, suggesting that expenditure growth alone does not consistently ‎explain long-term debt accumulation. In contrast, the short-run results reveal strong and persistent effects of government expenditure across ‎multiple lag periods, highlighting its immediate role in shaping fiscal imbalances during crisis episodes and periods of elevated public ‎spending. Exchange rate depreciation also emerges as a significant short-run determinant, intensifying debt burdens through the valuation ‎effects of foreign-denominated liabilities. Inflation displays a nonlinear short-run impact, initially reducing the real value of debt but eventually exacerbating fiscal pressures when inflation persists. Meanwhile, stock market prices, government revenues, and interest rates do not ‎exert statistically significant effects in either the short or long run, reflecting the limited transmission of capital market signals and the gradual nature of structural revenue adjustments in the Philippine context. The policy implications underscore the importance of improving ex‎penditure efficiency, strengthening revenue mobilization, and reducing reliance on foreign-currency borrowing. The findings further high-‎light the need for credible inflation management and robust countercyclical fiscal buffers to mitigate the debt-creating effects of macroeconomic shocks. By identifying expenditure and exchange rate dynamics as key drivers of short-run debt fluctuations, this study contributes to ‎the literature on fiscal sustainability in emerging economies and offers evidence-based insights for Philippine policymakers seeking to balance growth objectives with debt stability‎.

  • Research Article
  • 10.61090/aksujoss.7.1.175-185
The Impact of Foreign Portfolio Investment on Stock Market Dynamics in Nigeria: Evidence from Volatility, Liquidity, and Price Discovery
  • Mar 9, 2026
  • AKSU Journal of Social Sciences
  • Hussaini Shuaibu

This study investigates the impact of foreign portfolio investment (FPI) on Nigerian stock market dynamics through the lens of three core microstructural dimensions, volatility, liquidity, and price discovery, using monthly data from January 2005 to December 2024, a period encompassing major structural reforms, exchange rate regime shifts, and global financial shocks. Employing an integrated multivariate time-series framework that combines ARDL, GARCH-in-mean, VECM, and Hasbrouck’s (1995) information share methodology, the analysis accounts for non-stationarity, structural breaks, and endogeneity to rigorously assess both short- and long-run effects. The findings reveal a dual, context-dependent role of FPI: under stable conditions, FPI inflows reduce volatility, boost liquidity via higher turnover, and enhance price discovery by importing global information; however, during episodes of stress, such as the 2015–2017 foreign exchange crisis, the pandemic, and the 2022–2023 global monetary tightening—FPI amplifies volatility through herding and rapid outflows. Foreign ownership concentration consistently improves liquidity and price efficiency, whereas FPI flow volatility erodes both. Robustness checks confirm the reliability of these results across model specifications and subsamples. As the first study to comprehensively model FPI’s multidimensional impact in Nigeria, this paper demonstrates that the benefits of foreign participation are conditional on macro-financial stability and domestic market depth, highlighting the need for policies that harness FPI’s efficiency gains while mitigating its fragility through stronger domestic investor buffers, enhanced transparency, and prudent macroprudential tools.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1080/00049158.2026.2627068
Impact of exchange rate on Brazilian publicly traded pulp and paper companies: the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic
  • Mar 7, 2026
  • Australian Forestry
  • K D Pereira + 6 more

ABSTRACT The Brazilian pulp and paper sector is highly influenced by the international market, making exchange rate fluctuations a key factor in the valuation of publicly traded companies. This study analysed the impact of changes in the Brazilian real against the US dollar and the euro on such companies listed on the Brazilian stock exchange (B3), using cointegration and error correction models. These methods assessed short- and long-term relationships between stock prices and exchange rates. Historical data showed trends and seasonality in stock prices and currency values, reflecting broader economic conditions and investor behaviour. The results indicate that fluctuations in the US dollar have a stronger and more lasting influence on the stock prices of these companies than those of the euro. Thus, the appreciation of the real, particularly against the dollar, tends to negatively impact the market value of pulp and paper companies, especially over the long term. It was noticed that the sanitary paper and packaging industries had increasing demands throughout 2020 due to the worsening of the COVID-19 pandemic. The cellulose and paper industries therefore had an opportunity for appreciation even though the world market was going through serious challenges.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1108/reps-08-2024-0043
The impact of Brexit on the British currency and stock market performance: a sentiment analysis approach
  • Mar 5, 2026
  • Review of Economics and Political Science
  • Hoda Ibrahim Fadda + 1 more

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the impact of Brexit social media sentiments on the stock market and currency exchange performances in UK after taking this decision. Design/methodology/approach Analyzing the dynamics of relationship between Brexit sentiments and stock market and currency exchange using time-series analysis. The variables of interest are GBP Exchange Rates with respect to USD and EUR in Currencies and FTSE-100 Index value, representing the stock price behavior and a measure of overall social media sentiment. Findings The results show that there's a minor gap between opponents and proponents of Brexit, which matches the referendum results in 2016, yet this minor gap has a significant negative impact on the stock market and exchange rate performances in the UK. Originality/value The study's significance lies in its use of sentiment analysis to understand public opinion and the use of social media analytics to study market performance. The research contributes to the literature by examining the long-term relationship between social media (Twitter/X) sentiments and market performance.

  • Research Article
  • 10.14710/agrisocionomics.v10i1.26913
DETERMINANT OF INDONESIAN FROZEN SHRIMP EXPORT VOLUME TO JAPAN
  • Mar 4, 2026
  • Agrisocionomics: Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Pertanian
  • Maylan Iga Prastika + 2 more

Shrimp is a leading export commodity in the fisheries sector in Indonesia, playing a significant role in generating foreign exchange earnings, particularly through exports to the United States and Japan. Despite its importance, the volume of Indonesian frozen shrimp exports to Japan has fluctuated in recent years. This research investigates the key factors influencing these export volumes, focusing on frozen shrimp production, international shrimp prices, the USD to IDR exchange rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Japan). Data were sourced from UN COMTRADE, the World Bank, Statistics Indonesia (BPS), the Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries, the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO), and Trade Statistics of Japan. A quantitative research approach was employed, using multiple linear regression analysis to determine the relationships among the variables. The findings revealed that frozen shrimp production, the exchange rate, and GPD of Japan have a significant impact on export volumes, while international shrimp prices do not show a statistically significant effect. Among these, the GDP of Japan emerged as the most influential factor. Based on these results, policy recommendations include the enhancement of international branding, formulation of comprehensive production planning, and the improvement of product value and quality.

  • Research Article
  • 10.1177/00157325261420527
Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Confound Exchange Rate Pass-through to Domestic Prices in India?
  • Mar 3, 2026
  • Foreign Trade Review
  • Rahul Kumar + 1 more

We examine the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to domestic prices in India. By analysing data on the nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) from 2003 to 2024, we estimate ERPT to both the consumer price index and the wholesale price index. Employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, while we find that an appreciation of NEER leads to reduction in prices, but on the contrary, with the increase in EPU, it leads to an increase in prices. The non-linear-ARDL estimation reveals an asymmetric ERPT effect with NEER appreciation showing relatively a stronger ERPT effect than depreciation, while both large and small exchange rate changes exhibiting similar pass-through effect on prices. Additionally, employing time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VAR) technique, we find that except for four-quarter horizon, the impulse responses for one-, eight- and twelve-quarter horizons of prices to exchange rate shocks remain negative all throughout the period. Moreover, we find that ERPT to domestic prices is similar across optimistic, pessimistic and normal economic outlooks. Our findings emphasise the significance of EPU in influencing ERPT to domestic prices in India, highlighting the imperative for monetary authorities in emerging market economies to consider the role of EPU in the transmission mechanism of exchange rate movements to domestic prices. JEL Codes: E31, F31, C22

  • Research Article
  • 10.51249/gei.v7i02.2890
EXCHANGE RATE POLICY
  • Mar 3, 2026
  • Revista Gênero e Interdisciplinaridade
  • Airton Pereira Da Silva Leão + 4 more

This article addresses initial concepts regarding exchange rates, exchange rate policy, the Brazilian foreign exchange market, and volatility, in order to facilitate and provide the reader with a better understanding of the subject. The Brazilian foreign exchange market is a complex environment; therefore, its stability depends on the good development of the country's economy. Like many countries, the Brazilian foreign exchange market suffers from volatility in exchange rates, which can be detrimental to various sectors of the country. Thus, this work aims to study volatility in order to answer the following question: what are the effects of volatility on the Brazilian economy? Throughout the work, data referring to the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2020 will be presented in order to analyze the volatility of the Brazilian market during this period. The article uses a bibliographic research methodology based on articles related to the topic, of a descriptive nature, given that it offers quantitative data.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/su18052453
Practical Guidelines to Improve the Sustainability of Ventilation Fan Use in Agricultural Operations
  • Mar 3, 2026
  • Sustainability
  • Nilroth Ly + 1 more

Ventilation systems in agricultural settings are designed to deliver specific air exchange rates, which are often not achievable using natural ventilation. In this study, we analyzed 105 agricultural ventilation fans tested between 2015 and 2025 at the Bioenvironmental and Structural Systems (BESS) Laboratory, including 0.6, 0.9, 1.2, and 1.5 m diameter fans operating at static pressures ranging from 0 to 75 Pa. The main objective of the study is to develop and introduce guidelines to help select the most suitable ventilation fans to improve the sustainability of agricultural operations. Two web-based interactive calculators were developed to visualize fan performance relative to low- and high-performing fans of the same diameter. Our findings indicated that the ventilation efficiency ratio (VER) of the fans ranged from 2 to 50 m3 h−1 W−1, and larger fans consistently showed higher efficiency at typical operating pressures of 12.5 to 37.5 Pa. In general, variable-speed fans operated at 85%, rather than full capacity, achieved higher efficiency. Two cost comparison scenarios were examined. In the first scenario, the fan with a higher purchasing cost but also 35% higher efficiency resulted in a payback period of 4.1 years. In the second scenario, the difference in fan efficiencies was less than 3.5%, which did not help with recovering higher purchase costs during the 10-year analysis period. It was concluded that selecting fans solely based on purchase price can lead to higher long-term costs. To improve the sustainability of agricultural fans, VER and operating conditions need to be evaluated together and integrated into automated control strategies. Future studies can focus on integrating fans with high efficiencies into sensor-based automated ventilation control systems to quantify long-term energy savings in livestock buildings and other agricultural operations.

  • Research Article
  • 10.55677/gjefr/01-2026-vol03e3
Analysis of the Impact of BI Rate, M2 Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the LQ45 Index in the Indonesia Stock Exchange
  • Mar 2, 2026
  • Global Journal of Economic and Finance Research
  • Rendy , + 2 more

Investors generally use various indicators to assess the performance of the capital market and the overall economic condition, one of which is the LQ45 Index. The movement of this index is influenced by the BI Rate, M2 Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation, which affect liquidity, market stability, and investor behavior. This study aims to examine and analyze the impact of the BI Rate, M2 Money Supply, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on the LQ45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. The research method used is a documentary study. The population and sample were taken using the time series method. The data analysis techniques used include descriptive statistical analysis, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression analysis, coefficient of determination, and hypothesis testing. The results of the study show that the BI Rate does not affect the LQ45 Index, M2 Money Supply has a positive effect on the LQ45 Index, the Exchange Rate has a negative effect on the LQ45 Index, and Inflation has a positive effect on the LQ45 Index.

  • Research Article
  • 10.3390/forecast8020021
A Combined Kalman Filter–LSTM to Forecast Downside Risk of BWP/USD Returns: A Bottom-Up Hierarchical Approach
  • Mar 2, 2026
  • Forecasting
  • Katleho Makatjane + 1 more

This paper offers a hybrid forecasting approach that merges a local-level state space Kalman filter with a Long-Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network to assess the downside risk of the Botswana Pula versus the US Dollar (BWP/USD). Inspired by the inability of conventional econometric models to capture complex latent structural shifts and nonlinear patterns, our architecure uses a bottom-up hierarchical methodology in which the smoothed level component of the exchange rate is isolated by the Kalman filter and subsequently fed into the LSTM architecture. Three key indicators for assessing downside risk—Maximum Drawdown (MDD), Conditional Drawdown-at-Risk (CDaR), and Downside Deviation—are used to assess model performance across various time-frames (7, 30, 90, 180, and 240 days). As confirmed by Kupiec and Christoffersen’s backtesting processes, the findings show a high degree of alignment between projected and actual values, with negligible downside deviation bias and robust calibration. Moreover, global economic and geopolitical shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict, and the 2015–2016 Shanghai Stock Exchange crash, are important factors that influence exchange rate volatility, according to explainable artificial intelligence techniques, particularly SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis. Downside risk is also greatly increased by regional currency links, especially the impact of the ZAR/BWP exchange rate. On the other hand, domestic temporal variables, such as week, quarter, and month, have very little impact. These results emphasise how Botswana’s currency rate is structurally vulnerable to external shocks and how crucial it is to include both global and regional considerations in risk analysis. The research concludes that the accuracy and transparency of projections for exchange rate risk significantly improve when practical filtering is combined with deep learning and explainable AI. To improve macroeconomic resilience and guide successful financial risk management plans in emerging market environments, policymakers are advised to employ AI-driven forecasting techniques, enhance regional monetary coordination, and set up real-set learning systems.

  • Research Article
  • 10.63671/ijsssr.v3i4.532
Oil Price Fluctuations and Food Inflation in the Comoros: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach
  • Mar 2, 2026
  • International Journal of Science and Social Science Research
  • Yssoufa Thabiti + 2 more

The asymmetric transmission of oil price fluctuations into food inflation in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) remains insufficiently explored, despite its importance for price stability and economic resilience. This study addresses this gap by focusing on the Comoros, an import-dependent island economy where exposure to external shocks is structurally amplified. Using a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) framework complemented by Quantile Regression from 2000 to 2024, we uncover the complex dynamics linking oil prices, exchange rate movements, GDP per capita growth, and food inflation. The results show clear short-run asymmetries: positive oil price shocks significantly raise food inflation (β = 12.74, p &lt; 0.01), while negative shocks produce an even stronger deflationary effect (β = –22.10, p &lt; 0.01), confirming a pronounced “rocket and feather” pattern. Exchange rate depreciation emerges as the dominant driver of short-run inflation (β = 56.98, p &lt; 0.001), while improved economic conditions exert a mild stabilizing effect (β = –1.23, p &lt; 0.05). The error correction term (–0.91) indicates rapid adjustment toward long-run equilibrium. Quantile estimates reveal that oil price shocks intensify during high-inflation regimes (90th), whereas exchange rate shocks are most destabilizing during low-inflation(50th) periods, highlighting substantial distributional heterogeneity. These findings offer critical insights for policymakers in SIDS seeking to design targeted, shock-responsive inflation management strategies.

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