Exchange Rate Risk Premium Research Articles

The Introduction of the Euro and the Currency Risk Premium

Exchange rates arrangements aim at reducing uncertainty attached to currency fluctuations hence a reduction in systematic risks. This paper analyzes the behaviour of risk premiums in major equity markets, following the introduction of the euro. Using a multifactor asset pricing model, we find exchange rate risk premium in the largest eurozone markets (Germany and France) rose sharply after 1999, unlike in the markets (Italy and the Netherlands). Market risk premium declined in the eurozone markets except Germany. It appears the euro resulted in systematic risk reduction in the smaller eurozone markets at the expense of their larger partners. This challenges an important rationale for the euro.

Foreign Exchange Risk Premium Determinants: Case of Armenia

This paper studies foreign exchange risk premium using the uncovered interest rate parity framework in a single country context. The analysis is performed using weekly data on foreign and domestic currency deposits in Armenian banking system. The paper provides the results of the simple tests of uncovered interest parity condition, which indicate that contrary to established view dominating in empirical literature there is a positive correspondence between exchange rate depreciation and interest rate differentials in Armenian deposit market. Furthermore, the paper presents and discusses a systematic positive risk premium required by the economic agents for foreign exchange transactions, which increases over the investment horizon. The two currency affine term structure framework is applied to identify the factors driving the systematic exchange rate risk premium in Armenia. At the end, possible directions for further research are outlined.

Inflation Risk and International Asset Returns

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) over the period 1975-1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). Our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the ICAPM. In an extension of our analysis to 2003, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia

In this paper we report estimates of the risk premium for the pound sterling exchange rates vis-à-vis the Australian dollar, the Canadian dollar, a synthetic Euro, the Japanese yen and the US dollar over a monthly 1987–2001 sample, generated using a conditional factor model for the stochastic discount factor of a representative ‘worldwide’ investor. The model relates this stochastic discount factor to the real return on a ‘worldwide’ stock portfolio as well as the growth rate in ‘worldwide’ industrial production, with the model parameters varying with variations in both the slope of the ‘world’ term structure of interest rates and the price/earnings ratio that corresponds with the ‘worldwide’ stock portfolio. Econometric tests indicate that this model is accepted by the data. The corresponding parameter estimates are used to compute the risk premium for the five aforementioned sterling exchange rates. Although the estimated risk premia exhibit realistic time series dynamics, we show that only in the case of the sterling/yen exchange it can explain the observed deviations from uncovered interest rate parity over our sample period.

Asset Price Based Estimates of Sterling Exchange Rate Risk Premia

In this paper we report estimates of the effective sterling, sterling/Deutsche mark and sterling/US dollar risk premia over a monthly 1987-2001 sample, generated using a conditional factor model for the stochastic discount factor of a representative worldwide investor. The model relates this stochastic discount factor to the real return on a worldwide stock portfolio, with the model parameters varying with variations in the slope of the world term structure of interest rates. Econometric tests indicate that this model is accepted by the data. The corresponding parameter estimates are used to compute the risk premium for the three aforementioned sterling exchange rates. A graphical analysis indicates that, in terms of magnitude, our measure of the exchange rate risk premium is mainly of importance for the sterling/Deutsche mark exchange rate. Risk-adjusted test regressions for uncovered interest rate parity vis-a-vis the major European currencies provide some confirmation for this.

The World Price of Inflation Risk

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze the price of inflation risk in a framework that includes the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) as a special case. In contrast to the literature, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S.) over the period 1975-2003. We find evidence of statistically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). We demonstrate that inflation risk premia are an economically important component of international asset returns. Our results can be interpreted as a rejection of the ICAPM. Moreover, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area after 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.

The Cost of Capital of Cross‐listed Firms

Abstract This paper analyses the cost of capital of firms with foreign equity listings. Our purpose is to shed light on the question whether international and domestic asset pricing models yield a different estimate of the cost of capital for cross‐listed stocks. We distinguish between (i) the multifactor ICAPM of Solnik (1979) and Sercu (1980) including both the global market portfolio and exchange rate risk premia and (ii) the single factor domestic CAPM. We test for the significance of the cost of capital differential in a sample of 336 cross‐listed stocks from nine countries in the period 1980–99. Our hypothesis is that the cost of capital differential is substantial for firms with international listings, as these are often large multinationals with a strong international orientation. We find that the asset pricing models yield a significantly different estimate of the cost of capital for only 12% of the cross‐listed companies. The size of the cost of capital differential is around 50 basis points for the US, 80 basis points for the UK and 100 basis points for France.

Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates

AbstractThis paper studies a multi-factor, two-country term structure and exchange rate model when a diversification effect for an international bond portfolio is expected. It shows that the diversification gain calls upon certain restrictions on the process of the stochastic discount factor in a factor-structured economy. Existence of local factors is shown to be a necessary condition for the gains from investing in foreign bonds. Further, the exchange rate risk premia are shown to be a function of the differentials of the risk premia of the factors in bond returns. Empirical results reveal the tendency for investors to respond sensitively to rare shocks, which is shown to be a potential solution to the forward premium puzzle.

Measuring the Euro Exchange Rate Risk Premium: The Conditional International CAPM Approach

This paper derives measures for the bilateral euro exchange rate risk premia vis-a-vis the US dollar and the UK pound sterling, as well as the US and the UK equity market risk premia using the perspective of a european investor. We carry out the estimations applying the conditional International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM). The ICAPM is estimated for both constant and time-varying prices of risk, using weekly data on the equity and foreign exchange returns for Europe, the UK and the US. In estimating the time-varying prices of risk, we propose a new set of instrumental variables that take both business cycle and market volatility considerations into account. Consequently, our risk premium estimates are more intuitive, picking up most of the individual events that moved the markets between 1986 and 2001.

Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Accession Countries

This study examines the impact of various monetary policy regimes on the ability to lower inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU accession countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. It proposes a monetary policy framework of flexible targeting of relative inflation risk premium that is believed to be credible and useful for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is developed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by employing the threshold ARCH (TARCH) model.

The cost of capital in international financial markets: local or global?

This paper analyzes to what extent international and domestic asset pricing models lead to a different estimate of the cost of capital for an individual firm under the maintained assumption of perfect international financial integration. We distinguish between (i) the multifactor Solnik–Sercu ICAPM including both the global market portfolio and exchange rate risk premia, and (ii) the single factor domestic CAPM. We use a sample of 3,293 stocks from nine countries in the period 1980–1999. The domestic CAPM yields a significantly different estimate of the cost of capital from the multifactor ICAPM for only five percent of the firms in our sample. We attribute the close correspondence between local and global pricing to strong country factors in individual stock returns, which are probably due to lack of real integration. Our results reinforce the home bias puzzle.

Monetary Convergence and Risk Premiums in the EU Candidate Countries

This study examines the link between various monetary policy regimes and the ability to manage inflation and exchange rate risk premiums in the EU candidate countries as they undergo monetary convergence to the eurozone. The underlying hypothesis is that a system of 'flexible inflation targeting' may be an optimal policy choice for managing these two categories of risk. A model of inflation and exchange rate risk premiums within the context of inflation targeting is proposed. Recent trends in these risk premiums in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland are tested by using the GARCH (1,1) methodology.

Exchange Rate Exposure at the Firm and Industry Level

Previous work on the exposure of firms to exchange rate risk has primarily focused on U.S. firms and, surprisingly, found stock returns were not significantly affected by exchange-rate fluctuations. The equity market premium for exposure to currency risk was also found to be insignificant. In this paper we examine the relation between Japanese stock returns and unanticipated exchange-rate changes for 1079 firms traded on the Tokyo stock exchange over the 1975-1995 period. Second, we investigate whether exchange-rate risk is priced in the equity market of Japan using both unconditional and conditional multifactor asset pricing testing procedures. We find a significant relation between contemporaneous stock returns and unanticipated yen fluctuations. The exposure effect on multinationals and high-exporting firms, however, is found to be greater in comparison to low-exporting and domestic firms. Lagged-exchange rate changes on firm value are found to be statistically insignificant implying that investors are able to assess the impact of exchange-rate changes on firm value with no significant delay. The industry level analysis corroborates the cross-sectional findings for Japanese firms in that they are sensitive to contemporaneous unexpected exchange-rate fluctuations. The co-movement between stock returns and changes in the foreign value of the yen is found to be positively associated with the degree of the firm's foreign economic involvement and inversely related to its size and debt to asset ratio. Asset pricing tests show that currency risk is priced. We find corroborating evidence in support of the view that currency exposure is time varying Our results indicate that the foreign exchange-rate risk premium is a significant component of Japanese stock returns. The combined evidence from the currency exposure and asset pricing analyses, suggests that currency risk is of hedging concern to investors with implications for corporate and portfolio management.

Jumps and time-varying correlations in daily foreign exchange rates

This paper extends the multivariate latent factor ARCH model approach of Diebold and Nerlove (Journal of Applied Econometrics 4 (1989) 1) as a parsimonious alternative that pays particular attention to time series properties of daily foreign exchange rates such as jumps and to changing volatilities in both the common and country-specific factors. Using seven major daily dollar exchange rates from January 1 1992 to December 31 1996, this paper finds evidence of significant time-varying correlations and the country-specific variances. Consistent with the finding of Alexius and Sellin (1997) (A latent factor model of European exchange rate risk premia. Manuscript, The Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics), the two factor model appears to be a reasonable description of the major exchange rates.

Foreign Exchange Risk Premia and Welfare in a Stochastic Small Open Economy Model

This paper constructs a stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy consisting of risk-averse optimising agents with unconventional preferences. We use this model (i) to analyze the determinants of the foreign exchange rate risk premium; (ii) to explore the importance of unconventional preferences for the foreign exchange rate risk premium; and (iii) to conduct a numerical analaysis of the forex risk premium. Our model is distinguished from many of those in the literature by a number of features. Firstly, our dynamic general equilibrium model incorporates portfolio choice thereby giving rise to an integrated analysis of exchange rate determination with a risk-adjusted PPP and portfolio equilibrium. Secondly, the model includes a recursive utility function that disentangles risk aversion from intertemporal substitution thereby enabling an analysis of the distinct roles played by agents' attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution. Thirdly, in preference to using a two-country model, we specifically model a small open economy which takes the world interest rate as given. Fourthly, we have an exact stochastic model rather than the stochastic approximations (through Markov chains) more commonly adopted in the literature; and, fifthly, the model is constructed in continuous, not discrete, time. We find that the equilibrium forex risk premium is a function of exogenous shocks in the model and is sensitive to assumed attitudes towards risk and intertemporal substitution. Furthermore, taking plausible values for the preference parameters, together with other data-driven parameter values, the model generates a value for the forex risk premium which is close to that found in the data.

Exchange Rate and Foreign Inflation Risk Premiums in Global Equity Returns

Exchange Rate and Foreign Inflation Risk Premiums in Global Equity Returns

Central Bank Intervention and Risk Premia in Foreign Exchange Markets: Evidence of Daily Effects: Switzerland 1986–1995

Since the Plaza Meeting in September 1985, G-10 central banks have intervened in foreign exchange markets in a manner and scale unprecedented in the post Bretton Woods era. Using o cial daily data on interventions by the Swiss National Bank, this paper evaluates the e ectiveness of these interventions and examines their impact on exchange rate risk premia, as defined by deviations from interest rate parity. My results suggests that intervention (via its e ect on the risk premium) may be responsible for the frequently observed failure of foreign exchange market e ciency models and for their poor out-ofsample forecasting performance

The Cost of Capital of Cross-Listed Firms

This paper analyses the cost of capital of firms with foreign equity listings. Our purpose is to shed light on the question whether international and domestic asset pricing models yield a different estimate of the cost of capital for crosslisted stocks. We distinguish between (i) the multifactor ICAPM of Solnik (1979) and Sercu (1980) including both the global market portfolio and exchange rate risk premia and (ii) the single factor domestic CAPM. We test for the significance of the cost of capital differential in a sample of 336 cross-listed stocks from nine countries in the period 1980-99. Our hypothesis is that the cost of capital differential is substantial for firms with international listings, as these are often large multinationals with a strong international orientation. We find that the asset pricing models yield a significantly different estimate of the cost of capital for only 12% of the cross-listed companies. The size of the cost of capital differential is around 50 basis points for the US, 80 basis points for the UK and 100 basis points for France.

Time-varying market, interest rate, and exchange rate risk premia in the US commercial bank stock returns

This paper examines the role of market, interest rate, and exchange rate risks in pricing a sample of the US Commercial Bank stocks by developing and estimating a multi-factor model under both unconditional and conditional frameworks. Three different econometric methodologies are used to conduct the estimations and testing. Estimations based on nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NLSUR) via GMM approach indicate that interest rate risk is the only priced factor in the unconditional three-factor model. However, based on ‘pricing kernel’ approach by Dumas and Solnik [(1995). J. Finance 50, 445–479], strong evidence of exchange rate risk is found in both large bank and regional bank stocks in the conditional three-factor model with time-varying risk prices. Finally, estimations based on the multivariate GARCH in mean (MGARCH-M) approach where both conditional first and second moments of bank portfolio returns and risk factors are estimated simultaneously show strong evidence of time-varying interest rate and exchange rate risk premia and weak evidence of time-varying world market risk premium for all three bank portfolios, namely those of Money Center bank, Large bank, and Regional bank.

Exchange rate and foreign inflation risk premiums in global equity returns

We test for the pricing of exchange rate and foreign inflation risk in equities. Our tests are motivated by the empirical implications of the models of Solnik (1974b) [Solnik, B., 1974b. The international pricing of risk: an empirical investigation of the world capital market structure. Journal of Finance 365–377] as revised by Sercu (1980) [Sercu, P., 1980. A generalization of the international asset pricing model. Revue de l'Association Française de Finance 1, 91–135], Grauer et al. (1976) [Grauer, F., Litzenberger, R., Stehle, R., 1976. Sharing rules and equilibrium in an international capital market under uncertainty. Journal of Financial Economics 3, 233–256], and Adler and Dumas (1983) [Adler, M., Dumas, B., 1983. International portfolio choice and corporation finance: a synthesis. Journal of Finance 38, 925–984]. Both exchange rate and foreign inflation risk factors can explain part of the within-country cross-sectional variation in returns. Our results have important implications for hedging exchange rate risk. They also demonstrate that home bias, at least in US equity portfolios, cannot be the result of US investors' efforts to hedge their domestic inflation.