Policy Evaluation Research Articles

Perceived government-expert discord and evaluation of COVID-19 policies in Hong Kong

ABSTRACT This study examines citizens’ retrospective evaluation of government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. It focuses specifically on the impact of perceived government – expert discord, i.e. public perceptions of disagreement between government officials and the medical expert community. Medical experts played important roles during the pandemic and enjoyed high levels of credibility, whereas government leaders were sometimes seen as driven by political motivations. Hence, perceived government – expert discord might negatively affect policy evaluation. Analysis of a post-pandemic survey in Hong Kong (N = 1,002) shows that people who perceive significant government – expert discord are likelier to blame the government for negative happenings during the pandemic, less likely to credit the government for positive outcomes, and less likely to see the government’s control measures as appropriate. These relationships are stronger among people who suffered more, economically or mentally, during the pandemic. Credit attribution, blame attribution, and perceived appropriateness of control measures, in turn, influence overall policy evaluation.

SARS-CoV-2 incidence, seroprevalence, and antibody dynamics in a rural, population-based cohort: March 2020 - July 2022.

Studies of SARS-CoV-2 incidence are important for response to continued transmission and future pandemics. We followed a rural community cohort with broad age representation with active surveillance for SARS-CoV-2 identification from November 2020 through July 2022. Participants provided serum specimens at regular intervals and following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination. We estimated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection identified by study RT-PCR, electronic health record documentation or self-report of a positive test, or serology. We also estimated the seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 spike and nucleocapsid antibodies measured by ELISA. Overall, 65% of the cohort had ≥1 SARS-CoV-2 infection by July 2022, and 19% of those with primary infection were reinfected. Infection and vaccination contributed to high seroprevalence, 98% (95% CI: 95%, 99%) of participants were spike or nucleocapsid seropositive at the end of follow-up. Among those seropositive, 82% were vaccinated. Participants were more likely to be seropositive to spike than nucleocapsid following infection. Infection among seropositive individuals could be identified by increases in nucleocapsid, but not spike, ELISA optical density values. Nucleocapsid antibodies waned more quickly after infection than spike antibodies. High levels of SARS-CoV-2 population immunity, as found in this study, are leading to changing epidemiology necessitating ongoing surveillance and policy evaluation.

Quantitative Evaluation of China’s Biogenetic Resources Conservation Policies Based on the Policy Modeling Consistency Index Model

Biogenetic resources are the foundation of biodiversity and are of great significance to the sustainability of human society. The effective promotion of biogenetic resource conservation depends on the scientific formulation and implementation of relevant policies, so the quantitative evaluation of biogenetic resource conservation policies can provide decision support for the next step of policy formulation. Based on text analysis, social network analysis, and the construction of the PMC index model, this study selected 132 policy samples issued by the Chinese government in the field of biogenetic resources, established an evaluation system for China’s biogenetic resources policies, which contains 10 first-level indicators and 55 s-level indicators, and drew the PMC curve diagram accordingly to quantitatively evaluate China’s biogenetic resources policies. The results show that China’s biogenetic resources policies are generally at a good level, which can meet the current practical needs of biogenetic resources conservation, but there are problems such as the lack of policy forecasts in the relevant policy texts, the lack of flexible planning in the short and medium term, the lack of co-operation among the policy issuers, and the insufficient guidance of innovation. Based on the results, this article puts forward suggestions for improving China’s biogenetic resource conservation policies.

Comprehensive Evaluation of Regional Road Transport Safety Service Level

Ensuring road transport safety is a critical imperative for regional development and public welfare. This abstract outline a comprehensive evaluation framework designed to assess the service level of regional road transport safety. The proposed methodology integrates diverse parameters, encompassing infrastructure, technology, policy, and human factors, to provide a holistic understanding of the safety landscape. Using real-time data integration and powerful analytics, the assessment system combines quantitative and qualitative indicators. Technology aspects of infrastructure evaluations centre on the effectiveness of automated transportation systems and their influence on accident reduction; architecture evaluations also cover the layout of roads, advertising, and maintenance requirements. Policy evaluation is examining current laws and the ways in which they are enforced while considering how they affect the behaviour of drivers and public safety. The proposed method uses DCNN method for intelligent road transport safety. Using DCNN algorithms to monitor and regulate traffic congestion in smart cities represents a significant leap in the use of deep learning in traffic management.

Concept paper: The evolution of policy approaches to educational inequality in Hungary and Lithuania

Over 30 years after restoring independence and a transition to democratic systems with market economy, post-socialist countries emphasised Western values of freedom and equality, which extended to all policy areas, including education. However, research suggests that transformation of the former socialist bloc have had distinct effects on equity in education depending on contextual variables, requiring a deeper investigation into the education sector. To fill this gap, this concept paper describes the historical policy evolution in a comparative perspective in two post-socialist countries, Hungary and Lithuania, evaluating the period between 1945 until today with a focus on educational inequality. The paper demonstrates the temporal dimension of the shifts in the meaning of educational inequality as a policy concept by analysing how historical legacies of socialism, new narratives during regime change, and the growing influence of global and European values have impacted education policy. Evaluation of recent policy shows a considerable influence of neoliberal policy imperatives on education policy. Overall, the analysis revealed numerous parallels between the two countries, as well as the diverging political trajectories after the regime change, and especially in the post-2010 period.

Research on China's Higher Education Policy

Taking China's higher education policy as the research object, this paper conducts a comprehensive and in-depth research on the historical evolution of China's higher education policy, current policy analysis, policy effect evaluation and challenges and countermeasures by using the historical analysis method, policy analysis method and effect evaluation method. The study found that China's higher education policy has experienced three stages of historical evolution before the reform and opening up, since the reform and opening up to the end of the 20th century, and from the beginning of the 21st century to the present, and the policies at each stage have had an important impact on the development of higher education. Currently, China's higher education policy has achieved remarkable results in terms of macro management, micro operation and characteristic development, but it still faces problems such as uneven distribution of educational resources and equity and opportunity in higher education. In response to these problems, this paper puts forward a series of countermeasure suggestions to optimise the higher education policy system and strengthen policy implementation and evaluation. In the future, China's higher education policy should focus on innovation and reform to promote the sustainable and healthy development of higher education.

Extent of global decarbonization of the power sector through energy policies and governance capacity

During the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, many countries enacted clean energy policies as a part of their economic stimulus packages. These policies are believed to have contributed to a significant reduction in the CO2 intensity of electricity. Here we conduct a retrospective overview and evaluation of energy policies’ effectiveness in reducing the CO2 intensity of electricity. We utilize governance capacity as a measure of policy implementation stringency, and the interaction between governance capacity and the number of categorized policies to adjust policy variables for governance effectiveness. We distinguish between the short- and long-term effects of these policies to investigate the impacts of policy instruments on CO2 mitigation. The results suggest that the increased policy efforts, when executed with effective governance, have led to long-term cumulative effects. Our findings provide insights into the spatiotemporal dynamics of energy policies in CO2 mitigation, serving as a reference for policymakers in the post-COVID-19 era.

Evaluasi Pembinaan Program Anak Penyandang Kesejahteraan Sosial di Kampung Anak Negeri Dinas Sosial Kota Surabaya

Policy program evaluation is a systematic process for evaluating the effectiveness, efficiency, relevance and impact of a government policy or program. The main objective is to understand the extent to which the program or policy has succeeded in achieving its objectives, as well as to identify areas of improvement or adjustments needed. Policy evaluation is a step important in a sustainable public policy cycle, helping to ensure that policies can provide maximum benefits for the community. The State Children's Village is a program designed by the Surabaya City Social Service to provide services and protection to children who are in need and have social problems in their area. Evaluation of the development program for children with social welfare in the Surabaya City Social Service's State Children's Village was carried out comprehensively to ensure the effectiveness and positive impact of the program. The State Children's Village Program is an initiative of the Surabaya City Social Service which aims to provide guidance and assistance to children who suffer from social welfare. need, especially those who are considered recipients of social welfare or have social problems. This program focuses on developing children through training, coaching and mentoring so that they can live better, more humanely, and learn to behave normally. Through a comprehensive evaluation, the coaching program Kampung Anak Negeri can ensure that efforts to develop children in the city of Surabaya really have a significant impact in improving their welfare and creating better conditions for future generations.

Evaluation of efficient policies on the renewable penetration in electricity sector for an integrated energy planning model in TIMES

Evaluation of efficient policies on the renewable penetration in electricity sector for an integrated energy planning model in TIMES

Estimation of the Local Conditional Tail Average Treatment Effect

The conditional tail average treatment effect (CTATE) is defined as a difference between the conditional tail expectations of potential outcomes, which can capture heterogeneity and deliver aggregated local information on treatment effects over different quantile levels and is closely related to the notion of second-order stochastic dominance and the Lorenz curve. These properties render it a valuable tool for policy evaluation. In this article, we study estimation of the CTATE locally for a group of compliers (local CTATE or LCTATE) under the two-sided noncompliance framework. We consider a semiparametric treatment effect framework under endogeneity for the LCTATE estimation using a newly introduced class of consistent loss functions jointly for the CTE and quantile. We establish the asymptotic theory of our proposed LCTATE estimator and provide an efficient algorithm for its implementation. We then apply the method to evaluate the effects of participating in programs under the Job Training Partnership Act in the United States.

Modelling the factors influencing carbon efficiency of consumer choice to promote energy-efficient vehicles

This study investigates the main factors influencing carbon emissions from Four Wheel Passenger Vehicles (FWPVs) in Sri Lanka, an emerging economy where the transport sector contributes 12 % of total emissions. Pioneering a new methodology, we integrate System Dynamics (SD) modeling and decomposition analysis to comprehensively map the factors affecting fuel efficiency for the first time in Sri Lanka. Employing the additive Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI I), we analyze a comprehensive time series dataset covering all petrol, diesel, and electric-powered FWPVs registered between 2015 and 2019. Our study delves into significant drivers of CO2 emissions, including population dynamics, vehicle ownership trends, annual travel distances, fuel types, engine capacities, and technological advancements. Additionally, we quantify the impact of fiscal policies on FWPV emissions, revealing a surge in emissions in 2018 and 2019 driven by consumer preferences for high-capacity vehicles. Our findings offer critical insights for crafting effective policies to promote energy-efficient vehicles and mitigate carbon emissions in the transport sector, emphasizing the importance of targeted fiscal measures. By imposing taxes on high-capacity vehicles and incentivizing the adoption of low-emission options through tax variations and renewable energy incentives, policymakers can influence consumer behavior and drive significant emission reductions. Our study underscores the need for ongoing monitoring and evaluation of fiscal policies to refine existing measures and accelerate the transition towards a sustainable, low-carbon transportation sector in Sri Lanka.

Participative rights in Welsh primary schools: Unpicking the policy rhetoric

This paper presents the findings from the initial stage of an Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) funded project which examines the pedagogic practices that embed young children’s participative rights in lower primary classrooms in Wales. An evaluation of relevant legislation and policy in Wales from 2000 to 2022 was undertaken to explicate the positioning of teachers and their responsibilities regarding children’s participative rights. Data analysis detailed here sets out the legislative and statutory context within which teachers work, as well as the curricular and pedagogic framework which steers classroom activity. The Welsh Government has, for two decades, been explicitly sympathetic to embedding children’s rights in policy development, yet there is limited research evidencing the changes in educational curricula and practice. The gap between policy intention and implementation is not unique to Wales and therefore of universal interest. We report that although there is evidence of the increased inclusion of children’s participative rights in more recent legislation and policy, the move to education about, through and for human rights is only significantly pronounced in recent reforms such as the Curriculum and Assessment (Wales) Act 2021. We advocate that the commitment to human rights education made in the Curriculum for Wales is perpetuated and ongoing critical appraisal of legislation and policy is needed, alongside further research to understand how that commitment is being interpreted in Welsh education settings.

Challenges and improvement opportunities in a telemedicine pilot project

Background: A pilot project for telemedicine has been underway since June 2023. However, ongoing issues have persisted since its implementation. This study aimed to review the current status and challenges of this project and recommend necessary improvements.Current Concepts: The following challenges were observed. First, the primary and incidental effects of this pilot project were not presented. It is not a small-scale project as it targets the entire population without a strict predesign. Its evaluation must have a defined implementation period. Currently, an indefinite implementation period has been proposed until the medical law is revised. Second, safety measures were found to be inadequate. Lastly, from an industrial standpoint, the government unilaterally promoted telemedicine policies.Discussion and Conclusion: Enhancements should be implemented in this telemedicine pilot project to ensure safety. First, the project objectives were clearly defined. Clear policy effects and evaluation criteria should be presented, and the project should be implemented through a rigorous policy design to verify them. Second, policy measures should be established to ensure safety. Lastly, administrative and legal improvements related to telemedicine should be implemented simultaneously.

Integrated environmental-economic modelling for cross sectoral water policy evaluation

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) has set a deadline for 2027 to reach at least good ecological status (GES) in coastal waters in the EU. As nutrient pollution (eutrophication) is one of the main pressures in most EU coastal waters, and Danish waters in particular, significant nutrient reductions are required. In this paper, we take an integrated environmental-economic modelling approach to assess alternative strategies to mitigate non-point source nutrient pollution. A spatially explicit optimization model, TargetEconN, is implemented at the Danish national scale and extended to include mussel production as a marine water quality improvement measure. Different eutrophication mitigation strategies investigated in the model are characterized by whether nitrogen emissions are reduced at the source, between the source and the recipient e.g., by establishing wetlands, or in the recipient itself. We run scenarios exploring the uncertainty in baseline load assumptions and the effects of mussel farming. The results show that the potential for marine measures depends on the baseline load assumptions and that marine measures have a limited impact on the overall costs of achieving GES. The results also show that including marine measures has a significant indirect impact through the influence on the spatial distribution of land-based measures. We conclude that including mussel farming in policy initiatives to meet WFD targets has potential, but that the distributional effects across sectors and spillover effects to other policy targets should be a central part of the ex-ante policy discussions. We argue therefore that spatially explicit integrated modelling, as the model developed for this paper, can offer useful insights to manage the unescapable trade-offs in effective policy design to meet the WFD.

The spillover effect of mandatory renewable portfolio standards

Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPSs) are one of the most prevalent and impactful clean energy policies implemented by states in the United States. This paper investigates the regional spillover effect of RPS policies using a directed dyad panel dataset of renewable electricity generation in US states from 1991 to 2021. Regional spillover effect is measured in two ways: by considering the influence of an RPS enacted in neighboring states and in states in the same regional transmission organization or independent system operator region. We use dyadic fixed effects estimation and conclude that the neighboring state’s RPS stringency score is a strong determinant of a state’s total renewable electricity generation. For states without an RPS, the positive influence of an RPS in a neighboring state is larger when the non-RPS state has more abundant renewable energy resources than the neighboring RPS state. Our findings suggest that past RPS policy evaluation research using a confined within-state focus may have underestimated the holistic impact of an RPS, as the impacts of an RPS policy can extend beyond the enacting state’s borders. Overall, this study contributes to an improved understanding of the holistic impact of state RPS policies.

Assessment of a Community-Based Nutrition Program for Women and Children in Nepal Using Demographic and Health Survey.

Undernutrition is a particularly acute problem in middle- and low-income countries. The "Suaahara" program is a 5-year community-focused program in Nepal, aimed at improving the health and nutrition of pregnant and lactating women and their children under the age of 2 years. This research contributes to evidence on the impact of the "Suaahara" program in 41 treated districts compared to 34 control districts. Using the difference-in-differences method, we found that the weight-for-height z-score and body mass index z-score of children under the age of 2 in the treated districts significantly increased by 0.223 standard deviations (SDs) and 0.236 SDs, respectively, compared with the control districts 5 years before and after the program. The number of antenatal care visits (at least four visits) and safe deliveries significantly increased for pregnant women by 10.4% and 9.1%, respectively, in the treated districts compared with the control districts. The prevalence of fever in children under 2 years of age was significantly reduced by 6.2% in the treated districts. The results show the significance of a policy evaluation with transparent indicators on public health, which is necessary for policymakers so that they can propose evidence-based policy.

The WELLBY: a new measure of social value and progress

We introduce the WELLBY, a new measure of social value and progress, which can contribute to the assessment of progress towards the wellbeing of the economy and steer towards activities with the most wellbeing per financial resources invested. After providing a short rationale for the WELLBY, we give a definition and an overview of its properties. We then show how WELLBYs can help decision-makers with ex-ante policy appraisals and deliver a practical example of a youth traineeship programme. We also discuss how coefficients from ex-post wellbeing policy evaluations are now being collected as part of social value banks around the world, feeding into future appraisals. Finally, we illustrate how WELLBYs can be used to measure social progress overall, going beyond GDP.

An analytical framework for breast cancer public policies in Sub-Saharan Africa: results from a comprehensive literature review and an adapted policy Delphi

BackgroundBreast cancer is the leading cause of death from cancer in women and is a major public health problem worldwide. Despite the lower incidence rates of breast cancer in resource-limited settings, especially sub-Saharan Africa, there is a higher mortality rate compared to high-resource countries where the disease has a higher incidence. This makes breast cancer the second deadliest cancer in African women. These poor results reflect the weakness in public health policies. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the effective control of breast cancer by designing a framework for a comprehensive and systemic analysis of these policies in Sub-Saharan Africa.MethodsThis research is based on a literature review that adopted a systematic approach followed by a modified policy Delphi involving breast cancer experts in Sub-Saharan Africa. We included narrative reviews and systematic reviews/meta-analyses published between 2015 and 2022 as well as official documents in the analysis. We integrated the World Health Organization’s health system building blocks with Walt and Gilson’s policy analysis triangle to analyse the information collected and develop our analytical framework.ResultsA total of 22 reviews and documents were included in the study. Sixteen breast cancer experts from Sub-Saharan Africa participated in the first Delphi round, and nine participated in the second round. The different components identified for a comprehensive and systemic analysis of effective breast cancer policies can be classified into policy content divided according to the health system building blocks and related policy processes; individual, organized national and international policy stakeholders; and policy contexts.ConclusionThis study enabled the design of a framework suitable for the comprehensive and systemic analysis of breast cancer control policies in Sub-Saharan Africa. This framework can be used as a checklist for stakeholders to guide the planning, implementation and evaluation of policies and specific breast cancer control programmes at the national and facility levels.

Evaluation of China's double-carbon energy policy based on the policy modeling consistency index

The clean energy transition is crucial for achieving China's double-carbon goal. With the promulgation of a series of policies, analyzing the energy policies in this policy framework is essential. This paper identifies 32 current effective and representative energy policies through collection and screening. After establishing a Policy Modeling Consistency (PMC) index, this paper designs the corresponding text-mining dictionary through the TF-IDF algorithm and uses regular expressions to retrieve, filter, and match policy texts. The results show that the average PMC score of all policies selected in this paper is 5.23, and the overall PMC surface is relatively smooth. The scores of primary variables are relatively balanced. For the future, it is essential to focus on optimizing utility level (P3), policy type (P5), policy receptors (P8), and policy areas (P9) in energy policy formulation. Most importantly, the social network density of energy policy issuers is low now; thus, diversity and close cooperation need to be strengthened.

‘ICT Development and depopulation: exploring the effects of municipal size on citizens’ technological profiles and policy evaluation in rural Spain'

ABSTRACT Increasing ICT availability and adoption is at the core of public policies to tackle rural depopulation. Taking as a reference the Digital Divide theory and the UTAUT model, the article shows how municipal size is associated with different technological profiles among rural citizens differing in terms of access and, above all, ICT quality, usage levels and perceived usefulness. On the other hand, the article analyses citizens’ perception of the management of rural policies based on the results of a survey of inhabitants of depopulated inland Spain. It uses cluster analysis around the variables of municipal size and opinion of citizens about ICT in recent years. The results reflect a generalized perception of non-compliance with the policies, although a certain conformism is detected in small municipalities. The central government is the one chosen to lead these policies followed by the regional governments.