Investment Evaluation Research Articles

Investment Feasibility Analysis of Water Storage Service (WSS) in Urban

This study examines the feasibility of investing in a Water Storage Service (WSS) in Depok City to address the growing demand for clean drinking water. The research evaluates WSS's financial viability and sustainability, considering market, technical, financial, environmental, management, and legal aspects. Using a quantitative approach, the study employs investment evaluation criteria such as Net Present Value (NPV), Return on Investment (ROI), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, and Net Benefit-Cost Ratio (Net B/C). The findings indicate that the WSS initiative is financially feasible, with a positive NPV of IDR 116,553,085,906.00, ROI of 15.3, IRR of 32.06%, and a payback period of 5.7 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the project remains viable even with a 15% reduction in sales and a 20% increase in operating costs. Despite the promising financial results, several risks were identified, including market, technical, regulatory, and business risks. The implications of this study suggest that WSS can be an effective solution to reduce reliance on bottled water and groundwater, while providing affordable, sustainable water access for Depok’s growing urban population. Future research should explore how WSS can be implemented in other urban areas facing similar water scarcity issues.

Two-phase integrated investment evaluation of clean energy: an empirical analysis of “Photovoltaic+Rice-Wheat” project in China

Two-phase integrated investment evaluation of clean energy: an empirical analysis of “Photovoltaic+Rice-Wheat” project in China

Investment evaluation and analysis of the activities of corporations according to the principles of sustainable development

Investment evaluation and analysis of the activities of corporations according to the principles of sustainable development

Evaluating Smart Manufacturing Projects – An Activity-Based Costing Approach

Implementing a smart manufacturing factory is a strategic, complex, and costly undertaking. This paper develops a cost estimation framework for the smart factory management information system (SFMIS) using activity-based costing (ABC). The proposed ABC model adopts a seven-step procedure of resource and activity drivers to calculate costs by tracing the cost objects. This study also incorporates life cycle assessment (LCA) to identify life-phase activities. Respondent data are modeled by the fuzzy Delphi method. The present study successfully develops an ABC model for evaluating SFMIS projects under uncertainty. Through a case study, the eight activities built based on the LCA and the 10 SFMIS modules exhibit different allocation proportions. This study provides insights that address limitations in conventional accounting approaches to smart manufacturing project evaluation, incorporating a broader range of cost information relevant to SFMIS practices. These findings inform practitioners’ SFMIS investment decisions. Our proposed cost evaluation framework can reduce unnecessary expenditures and promote successful smart manufacturing implementation. By adopting an ABC approach, this study expands existing research on smart manufacturing project investment evaluation, enhancing investor understanding. This contributes a cost decision model integrating fuzzy sets, ABC, and LCA, enabling industry to accurately and efficiently identify, allocate, and estimate resource costs, ultimately facilitating smart factory implementation by policymakers.

Natural Resources and Geopolitical Risk Impact on Energy Security Risk: The Role of Renewable Energy Consumption and Foreign Direct Investment

ABSTRACTNatural resources and geopolitical risks significantly impact energy security risks. The availability and accessibility of natural resources play a significant role in determining a nation's energy vulnerability. Renewable energy consumption, particularly foreign direct investment in renewable energy projects, can help mitigate these risks by diversifying energy supplies and reducing the reliance on fossil fuels. This study examines the impact of natural resources and geopolitical risk in 38 countries at risk of geopolitical conflict between 1990 and 2021 using CO2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, and foreign direct investment as controlling variables. The long‐run analysis is based on slope heterogeneity, Westerlund cointegration, Arellano–Bond dynamic panel‐data estimation, and Robust, correlated panels corrected standard errors (PCSEs). The results indicate that the energy security index is positively associated with natural resources, geopolitical risk, CO2 emissions, and renewable energy consumption. Foreign direct investment is negatively associated with the energy security index in selected geopolitical risk countries. Improving energy security requires addressing multiple policy implications. Natural resource availability, geopolitical risk mitigation, CO2 emissions reduction, and increased renewable energy consumption are key factors. However, the negative association between FDI and energy security in selected geopolitical risk countries emphasizes the importance of careful evaluation of foreign investments to ensure their compatibility with energy security objectives. By implementing appropriate policies, countries can enhance their energy security, promote sustainable development, and mitigate risks posed by geopolitical uncertainties.

Pendekatan Probabilistik dalam Evaluasi Investasi dan Manajemen Portofolio

The probabilistic approach in investment evaluation and portfo-lio management has become a crucial tool for measuring and man-aging risk. This article explores various probabilistic concepts and techniques used in finance, including Value at Risk (VaR), Condition-al Value at Risk (CVaR), and stress testing. Additionally, basic proba-bility theory, probability distributions, and random variables are discussed to provide a comprehensive understanding of the appli-cation of probability in investments. The analysis includes the use of probabilistic models to evaluate expected value and investment risk, including through Monte Carlo simulations and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM).In portfolio management, modern portfolio theory and the effi-cient frontier are explained to optimize portfolios to maximize ex-pected returns and minimize risk. The concept of diversification and its benefits in reducing portfolio risk are also outlined. While the probabilistic approach offers many advantages, this article also ex-amines the limitations of probabilistic models, including reliance on historical data and assumptions of normal distribution. Steps to address these limitations, such as model calibration and backtesting, are also discussed.

Investment evaluation of Augmented Reality-based training: a human-centered model

Abstract Despite the proven benefits of augmented reality (AR) in human-centered training, its widespread adoption is hindered by industrial companies’ difficulties in justifying the required investments due to unclear financial implications. Thus, having a tool to economically evaluate AR solutions for training is crucial for companies aiming to invest in educational programs. Accurate investment estimations for AR-based training require detailed analysis and data estimation, especially for human-centered applications. In this work, we propose a model to evaluate the economic feasibility of investing in AR-based industrial training, particularly focusing on the costs and benefits of a human-centered approach. This model links AR-related and human-centric factors to the cost and benefit variables used in standard models to compute common economic indices. A comprehensive methodology has been developed to support the model’s creation and validation based on a case study approach. Functionalities to support data estimation and alternative selection have been integrated into the model to enhance the reliability of its outcomes. The research findings and case study results advance training strategies and the implementation of AR applications in industry. They offer companies operating in complex industrial contexts a simple-to-use tool for evaluating the costs/benefits ratio and thus overcoming common technical and organizational barriers by clarifying financial implications, which are often a significant obstacle to the widespread adoption of new technologies like AR, especially when considering human-centric applications.

Social Return on Investment (SROI) Evaluation of Citizens Advice on Prescription: A Whole-Systems Approach to Mitigating Poverty and Improving Wellbeing.

Citizens Advice on Prescription (CAP), a Liverpool (UK)-based service, provides welfare advice and link worker social prescription support to people experiencing and at risk of experiencing financial or social hardship. CAP, which receives referrals from healthcare and third-sector services, aims to improve service users' financial security, health, and wellbeing. A mixed-methods social return on-investment (SROI) analysis was used to evaluate this service. Between May 2022 and November 2023, a subset of service users (n = 538) completed the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Survey (SWEMWBS) at baseline and a 2-month follow-up. Supporting quantitative and qualitative economic data were also collected (February 2023-February 2024) through semi-structured interviews (n = 16). Changes in social value were determined by comparing pre- and post-SWEMWBS scores. These scores were then mapped to monetary values using the Mental Health Social Value Bank (MHSVB). SROI ratios were then calculated by dividing the change in social value by the associated service provision costs. The mean social value change per person ranged from GBP 505.70 to GBP 697.52, and the mean service provision cost was GBP 148.66 per person. The overall study reported a positive SROI return range of GBP 1: GBP 3.40-GBP 4.69. The results indicate that non-clinical support services, like CAP, may be an effective intervention for addressing the wider determinants of health and wellbeing.

The Influence Of Operating Costs On The Sensitivity Of Financial Viability Case Study: Construction Of South Surabaya Regional General Hospital

This study evaluates the financial feasibility of constructing the South Surabaya Regional General Hospital using key investment evaluation methods, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), benefit-cost ratio (BCR), and Payback Period (PP). The study also examines how changes in management costs affect the project's financial viability. Data collected includes both initial investment costs and ongoing operational expenses. The findings indicate that the project is financially viable, with a positive NPV, an IRR higher than the required rate of return, and a payback period shorter than planned. Sensitivity analysis highlights that management costs significantly influence the project's feasibility. These insights can help the Surabaya City Government optimize hospital management costs and ensure the sustainability of healthcare projects.

Small Firm Factor: Riskiness Evaluation Under A High-Frequency Regime

Since the advent of multifactor models, the identification of factors that could lead to abnormal returns and their portfolio implications has been the theme of consistent effort and study. Among these factors, the small-cap factor (SMB factor) is one of crucial importance. This paper provides an innovative approach to the evaluation of the SMB factor taking into consideration the time-series comparison of small and large caps under a high-frequency regime, identifying structural differences in terms of stochasticity and presence of jumps. The empirical results confirm the specificity of small caps, understood therefore as a diversifying asset class. Additionally, results fail to confirm abnormal returns in the sample, indicating that factor momentum shall be considered. Moreover, the paper demonstrates a framework for high-frequency statistics usage in investment evaluation.

Investment Evaluation of Rural Revitalization Projects: A Case of the B Village Rural Tourism Project in L City as an Example

National rejuvenation requires rural revitalization. Investment in rural projects is an important way to promote rural revitalization. Based on the rural tourism project in B Village, L City, this article elaborates on the basic situation and operational status of the project, and evaluates its economic and social benefits. Rural project investment faces issues such as a shortage of grassroots talent, insufficient financial resources, and inadequate management. Therefore, effectively introducing and educating project talents, enhancing the efficiency of fund utilization, and implementing project supervision and management are effective ways to address project challenges.

Application of Bayesian network and genetic algorithm enhanced Monte Carlo method in urban transportation infrastructure investment

Traditional urban transportation infrastructure investment evaluation methods cannot fully consider future uncertainties and complex environmental factors, which affect resource allocation and decision-making accuracy. In order to optimize investment decision-making, this research aims to integrate Bayesian networks, genetic algorithms, and Monte Carlo methods to propose a more flexible and accurate investment evaluation method. By combining conditional probability modeling, optimization function, and randomness simulation, we strive to realize the scientific and rational decision-making of urban transportation infrastructure investment. In this paper, a Bayesian network of transportation infrastructure investment risk is constructed. Variable nodes and logical relationships are accurately defined, and a conditional probability table is formed to model uncertainty. The investment portfolio is optimized by genetic algorithm, and the fitness function and iterative selection are set to screen out the optimal solution. Monte Carlo simulation technology is used to verify the robustness of the optimization solution and conduct multiple random experiments. Combining these three, an optimization model is formed that can efficiently evaluate investment decisions and improve the accuracy and adaptability of results. The experimental results show that at a 95% confidence level, the VaR (value at risk), and CVaR (conditional value at risk) values of the vehicle-kilometer service fee method are 32.4512 million yuan and 89.1234 million yuan, respectively, which are significantly better than the 410.2392 million yuan and 691.5735 million yuan of the agreement ticket price law. At the same time, the standard deviation rate of the IRR (internal rate of return) of the vehicle-kilometer service fee method is 0.1548, and the probability that the IRR is not lower than the social average return is 95.49%. The potential return is higher; the risk management and stability are better; it is more suitable for decision makers who pursue stable returns. The study shows that the enhanced Monte Carlo method in this paper not only provides effective theoretical support and technical means for the investment evaluation of urban transportation infrastructure.

Teachers' and Parents' Assessments of Primary School Children's Intellectual Investment as Predictors of Change in Need for Cognition.

The present study investigated whether parents' and teachers' evaluations of children's intellectual investment would predict a change in children's need for cognition (NFC) over one year. An exploratory look at how teachers' evaluations are predicted by a range of factors was also taken. N = 565 third-graders (298 girls; Mage = 8.40, SD = 0.59) and teachers (N = 39) were surveyed in 2021 and 2022. The parents (N = 452) provided the data in 2021. Longitudinal data were analyzed by means of latent change score models (LCSMs). Changes in the teachers' evaluations and in the children's cognitive engagement differed between the children. However, there was no effect of the parents' or teachers' assessments on the development of the children's NFC. The change in the teachers' assessment was negatively related to their initial judgment and the children's age; it was positively related to the pupils' fluid intelligence. The results and implications are discussed.

Does self-congruity matter for virtual influencer’s non-fungible token (NFT) purchase intentions? The role of financial literacy

PurposeThis research aims to examine how financial literacy moderates the mediation of attitude toward virtual influencers’ non-fungible tokens (NFTs) or ATB on the relationship between purchase intention and self-congruity, which includes symbolic representation, self-image congruence and emotional value. Initially, we investigated the mediation effect of ATB on the relationship between self-congruity and purchase intention. Subsequently, we analyze how financial literacy moderates this mediation process.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed a sample of 383 virtual influencers’ fans and applied a partial least square structural equation model (PLS-SEM) along with robustness tests to test the research hypothesis. The analysis is based on the moderated mediation framework.FindingsThe findings are intriguing for several reasons. First, it reveals that only self-image congruence positively affects purchase intention, contrary to existing self-congruity theory literature. The relationship between self-image congruence and purchase intention is a direct relationship with no mediation effect of ATB. Second, ATB fails to mediate the self-congruity effect on purchase intention. Third, financial literacy has a negative relationship with purchase intention, indicating that fans of virtual influencers with higher financial literacy are less likely to purchase virtual influencers’ NFTs due to more critical investment evaluations. We also argue that financial literacy discards the consumption behavior effect from self-congruity variables on purchase intention.Research limitations/implicationsThe study contributes to the literature by emphasizing the significance of financial literacy on purchase intention under the self-congruity framework. It also surmises that self-image congruence does matter for the purchase intention of a virtual influencer’s NFT. However, further research could validate findings by studying broader NFT investors, incorporating fandom and impulse buying variables and examining actual NFT purchases against planned behavior.Practical implicationsThis research is crucial for virtual influencers’ NFT creators, marketers and fans by providing insights for evaluating virtual influencers’ creators’ decision to pursue NFT markets. The findings reveal that the creators of virtual influencers should reconsider pursuing the NFT market, as self-congruity may not be a driving factor. Notably, our findings imply that a virtual influencer’s NFT is significantly different from a virtual influencer's merchandising business.Originality/valueThe originality of this study lies in extending the self-congruity within the NFT context, investigating how financial literacy moderates the mediation of ATB on the self-congruity-purchase intention relationship. It challenges self-congruity theory by showing that despite fans feeling aligned with virtual influencers, high financial literacy reduces the congruence.

Analysing the Research Development in Green Finance: Performance Analysis and Directions for Future Research

Financial institutions actively consider environmental performance as an important metric for investment evaluation and allocation of financial resources, which is prevalently known as ‘green finance’. The concept of green finance has received global recognition, as illustrated by the growing publications, yet there is a persistent need to synthesize the extant literature in this area to understand how green finance has developed as a distinctive and crucial body of knowledge. The present research aims to systematically review the scholarly articles on the green finance domain published from 1997 to 2024. Using the Scopus database and the SPAR-4-SLR framework, the current research integrates the bibliometric analysis along with a systematic literature review approach. The study discovers seven thematic areas that associate the green finance domain with distinctive knowledge clusters, such as (a) green investments, (b) green economic growth, (c) environmental performance, (d) green innovation, (e) corporate social responsibility, (f) climate risk management and (g) financial development. Such dispersed and multiple themes corroborate the multidimensional outlook of green finance and its universal applicability. Further, the study also describes theme-wise directions of future research to enhance the existing body of knowledge. Finally, the current research enumerates critical implications for academicians, practitioners and policymakers.

Modeling Uncertainties Through Employing Single-Valued Neutrosophic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making

The significance of performance evaluation for venture capital in small and medium-sized technology startups lies in helping investors understand the effectiveness of their capital investment and assess the company's growth potential and market prospects. The performance evaluation of risk investment in small and medium-sized high-technology venture enterprises involves the application of MADM. In this study, we explore the generalized weighted geometric Bonferroni mean (GWGBM) operator for MADM, utilizing single-valued neutrosophic sets (SVNSs) to handle uncertainty and vagueness in MADM processes. The study begins by introducing the single-valued neutrosophic number GWGBM (SVNNGWGBM) operator, which is specifically designed to aggregate decision-making criteria under SVNSs. Following this, MADM methods based on the SVNNGWGBM are developed and discussed. To demonstrate the practical application of this approach, an illustrative case study is provided, focusing on the performance evaluation of risk investment in small and medium-sized high-technology venture enterprises.

Incorporation of RFID Technology in the Inventory Management System to Optimize the Inventory Cost – ‘C’ Programming Approach

Objectives: To examine and justify the significance of Radio Frequency Identification technology in the inventory management system with scheduled shortages through a C programming approach. Methods: Radio Frequency Identification technology is examined in the inventory and analyzed between the two strategies namely i) non- Radio Frequency Identification technology and ii) Radio Frequency Identification investment in both ordering and Just In Time efficiency. The proposed methods were implemented and solved using C programming to evaluate their effectiveness and operational performance in managing inventory and reducing costs. Findings: An integrated investment evaluation model is established in this work and a comparative study has been made to analyze the assessment model with scheduled shortages in the absence and presence of Radio Frequency Identification technology by assigning the parameters using a numerical example performed by C programming. Results show that the total cost under non Radio Frequency Identification technology is 200547722.557505 whereas the total cost under Radio Frequency Identification technology investment is 100860759.476361. The number of orders placed each year under non Radio Frequency Identification technology and Radio Frequency Identification technology are 182 and 214 respectively. The results imply that the incorporation of Radio Frequency Identification technology in inventory management leads to improved efficiency and accuracy, resulting in increased profitability for an organization. Novelty: Radio Frequency Identification technology investment is incorporated into an inventory system to optimize inventory costs and annual order frequency using C programming, which remains unexplored in existing literature. 2020 Mathematics Subject Classification: 90B05. Keywords: Radio Frequency Identification technology, Investment evaluation, Inventory cost, Shortages, Economic Order Quantity

Evaluating the Well-Being Benefits and Social Value of Volunteer Gardening: Health Economics Meets Behavioral Science.

Multidisciplinary collaboration is key to strengthening the evidence base for multifaceted illness prevention interventions. We bring together health economics and behavioral science to explore the well-being benefits and social cost-benefit of volunteer gardening at an accredited botanic garden, Wales, UK. A health economics-informed social return on investment (SROI) evaluation was combined with the assessment of volunteers' basic psychological needs (autonomy, competence, and relatedness), connection to nature, and their interrelatedness in this innovative nature-based intervention study. Pre- and post-volunteering outcome data were collected using the Short Warwick-Edinburgh Mental Well-being Scale (SWEMWBS), the ICEpop CAPability measure for Adults (ICECAP-A), the 12-item diary version of the Basic Psychological Need Satisfaction and Frustration Scale (BPNSNF), the Nature Connection Index (NCI), and a bespoke Client Service Receipt Inventory (CSRI). Results indicate that volunteer gardening can provide well-being benefits to participants and cost savings to the NHS. The well-being benefits observed were estimated to generate social value in the range of GBP 4.02 to GBP 5.43 for every GBP 1 invested. This study contributes to the evidence base that simple nature-based interventions such as volunteer gardening could offer low-cost supportive environments that deliver significant well-being benefits and associated social value to local communities, including a reduced burden on overstretched local healthcare services.

Anticipatory evaluation

Starting with the Australian Evaluation Society 2024 Conference theme of ‘wayfinding’, the article reflects on how evaluators navigate time as well as space, with particular reference to how they incorporate qualitative approaches to ‘futures thinking’ into their evaluative practice. The article takes a reflexive case study approach, drawing on a simple model of evaluative practice to review the role of futures thinking in evaluation of doctoral research projects, impact investments, social assistance, and development studies as an academic field. The article focuses particularly on the role of ‘backcasting’, as well as deliberative processes and the causal mapping of narrative claims linking future possibilities to current thinking and activities.

Evaluating the social return on investment of dance movement for wellbeing in the prevention of burnout among healthcare staff: a study protocol.

Improvement in the National Health Service (NHS) employees' mental well-being and staff retention are current key issues. Evidence indicates that dance movement therapy (DMT) has been effective in improving mental health and well-being; however, a social return on investment (SROI) evaluation on DMT interventions aimed at NHS staff has not been performed. This protocol for an SROI study will explore the social value generated from DMT, specifically 'The Body Moving Self-Compassion' programme, as measured by the increase in personal well-being and resilience experienced by participants. The SROI evaluation aims to measure the monetary and social value generated through DMT by placing a monetary value which is essential for sound policy in accessing investment while contributing evidence of dance/movement's impact on health. SROI is a pragmatic form of social cost-benefit analysis which uses quantitative and qualitative methods to value relevant costs, outcomes and associated impact. A mixed-methods approach design (focus group, online questionnaire and semistructured interviews) will be employed in this SROI study. SROI takes a societal perspective and considers relevant and significant outcomes for participants. Monetary values which often do not have a market price are then assigned to these outcomes. Contingent valuation is integrated into this study to estimate individuals' choices, preferences and values associated with DMT. The social value generated by the identified outcomes will then be estimated in a similar way to cost-benefit analysis, and the ratio of social value generated per £1 invested is then calculated. Ethical approval for this study has been granted by the Faculty of Life Sciences and Education Ethics Subgroup at the University of South Wales, with Reference No. 230 236LR. The findings from this SROI study will result in a report and academic publications.