European Shale Gas Research Articles

Future European shale gas life-cycle GHG emissions for electric power generation in comparison to other fossil fuels

The carbon footprint of shale gas combusted in Europe was estimated from nine European shale gas plays as potential production regions. Greenhouse gas emission sources during shale gas production, such as fugitives from hydraulic fracturing or combustion emissions from horizontal drilling, were added to emissions occurring for conventional gas extraction. Greenhouse gas emissions are expressed as g CO2-equivalents per MJ delivered, and calculated for a kWh of electricity generated. Estimated total GHG emissions from the use of European shale gas for electricity production range from 0.42 to 0.75 kg CO2-eq/kWh when the combustion in the power plant is included. This is within the range reported in the literature. The cumulative carbon footprints for a number of fossil electricity generation scenarios for Europe were also calculated. The results indicate an advantage of gas over other fossil sources in a wide range of scenarios. These results are only reversed with very high (10%) upstream losses for shale gas. With the current knowledge there is still a substantial climate benefit of replacing coal with (shale) gas even in the EU reference scenario.

Modeling the impact of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom on ozone with WRF-Chem

Germany and the United Kingdom have domestic shale gas reserves which they may exploit in the future to complement their national energy strategies. However gas production releases volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), which through photochemical reaction form ground-level ozone, an air pollutant that can trigger adverse health effects e.g. on the respiratory system. This study explores the range of impacts of a potential shale gas industry in these two countries on local and regional ambient ozone. To this end, comprehensive emission scenarios are used as the basis for input to an online-coupled regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem). Here we simulate shale gas scenarios over summer (June, July, August) 2011, exploring the effects of varying VOC emissions, gas speciation, and concentration of NOx emissions over space and time, on ozone formation. An evaluation of the model setup is performed, which exhibited the model’s ability to predict surface meteorological and chemical variables well compared with observations, and consistent with other studies. When different shale gas scenarios were employed, the results show a peak increase in maximum daily 8-hour average ozone from 3.7 to 28.3 μg m–3. In addition, we find that shale gas emissions can force ozone exceedances at a considerable percentage of regulatory measurement stations locally (up to 21% in Germany and 35% in the United Kingdom) and in distant countries through long-range transport, and increase the cumulative health-related metric SOMO35 (maximum percent increase of ~28%) throughout the region. Findings indicate that VOC emissions are important for ozone enhancement, and to a lesser extent NOx, meaning that VOC regulation for a future European shale gas industry will be of especial importance to mitigate unfavorable health outcomes. Overall our findings demonstrate that shale gas production in Europe can worsen ozone air quality on both the local and regional scales.

Emission scenarios of a potential shale gas industry in Germany and the United Kingdom

The shale gas debate has taken center stage over the past decade in many European countries due to its purported climate advantages over coal and the implications for domestic energy security. Nevertheless, shale gas production generates greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions including carbon dioxide, methane, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and volatile organic compounds. In this study we develop three shale gas drilling projections in Germany and the United Kingdom based on estimated reservoir productivities and local capacity. For each projection, we define a set of emission scenarios in which gas losses are assigned to each stage of upstream gas production to quantify total emissions. The “realistic” (REm) and “optimistic” (OEm) scenarios investigated in this study describe, respectively, the potential emission range generated by business-as-usual activities, and the lowest emissions technically possible according to our settings. The latter scenario is based on the application of specific technologies and full compliance with a stringent regulatory framework described herein. Based on the median drilling projection, total annual methane emissions range between 150–294 Kt in REm and 28–42 Kt in OEm, while carbon dioxide emissions span from 5.55–7.21 Mt in REm to 3.11–3.96 Mt in OEm. Taking all drilling projections into consideration, methane leakage rates in REm range between 0.45 and 1.36% in Germany, and between 0.35 and 0.71% in the United Kingdom. The leakage rates are discussed in both the European (conventional gas) and international (shale gas) contexts. Further, the emission intensity of a potential European shale gas industry is estimated and compared to national inventories. Results from our science-based prospective scenarios can facilitate an informed discussion among the public and policy makers on the climate impact of a potential shale gas development in Europe, and on the appropriate role of natural gas in the worldwide energy transition.

Methane and ethane emission scenarios for potential shale gas production in Europe

Abstract. A main concern surrounding (shale) gas production and exploitation is the leakage of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. High leakage rates have been observed outside of Europe but the representativeness of these observations for Europe is unknown. To facilitate the monitoring of methane leakage from a future shale gas industry in Europe we developed potential production scenarios for ten major shale gas plays and identified a suitable tracer in (shale) gas to distinguish oil and gas related emissions from other methane sources. To distinguish gas leakage from other methane sources we propose ethane, a known tracer for leakage from oil and gas production but absent in emissions from other important methane sources in Europe. Ethane contents for the ten plays are estimated from a European gas composition database and shale gas composition and reservoir data from the US, resulting in three different classes of ethane to methane ratios in the raw gas (0.015, 0.04 and 0.1). The ethane content classes have a relation with the average thermal maturity, a basic shale gas reservoir characteristic, which is known for all ten European shale gas plays. By assuming different production scenarios in addition to a range of possible gas leakage rates, we estimate potential ethane tracer release by shale gas play. Ethane emissions are estimated by play following a low, medium or high gas production scenario in combination with leakage rates ranging from 0.2 %–10 % based on observed leakage rates in the US.

Can the US shale revolution be duplicated in continental Europe? An economic analysis of European shale gas resources

Over the past decade, the rapid increase in shale gas and shale oil production in the United States has profoundly changed energy markets in North America, and has led to a significant decrease in American natural gas prices. The possible existence of large shale deposits in continental Europe, mainly in France, Denmark, the Netherlands and Germany, has fostered speculation on whether the U.S. shale revolution could be duplicated in Europe. However, a number of uncertainties, notably geological, technological, regulatory, and relating to public acceptance make this possibility unclear. We present a techno-economic model of shale gas production amenable to direct estimation on historical production data to analyze the main determinants of the profitability of shale wells and plays. We contribute an in-depth analysis of an extensive production dataset covering 40,000 wells and accounting for nearly 90% of shale gas production in the six main plays of the continental United States from 2004 to 2014. We combine this analysis with a discussion of the main differences between the American and European contexts to calibrate our model and conduct Monte-Carlo simulations. This enables us to estimate the distribution of breakeven prices for shale gas extraction in continental Europe. We find a median gross breakeven price before taxes and royalties of $10.1 per MMBtu. This would make extraction unprofitable in Europe in the current natural gas price environment, with <47% of the well distribution reaching breakeven at the mean 2011–2016 price. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the breakeven price is most sensitive to initial production rate, drilling and completion costs, and decline rates. We also find that the economic outlook would be slightly better if the productivity of European shale gas plays was comparable to that of U.S. plays of similar depth, but not significantly so. We conclude that under assumptions calibrated on existing shale gas production data, it is unlikely that the U.S. shale revolution can be duplicated in continental Europe.

Analysis of the Potential Economic Viability of Shale Gas Resources in Europe

European countries are currently exploring strategies to ensure a strong level of security of energy supply while decreasing its reliance on natural gas imports. With the strong surge in shale gas developments in the USA, similar ambitions have been the ongoing subject of inquiry in Europe. Detailed knowledge about extraction costs is a key issue in determining future shale gas investments in Europe. The paper at hand analyses the potential of European shale gas resources, highlighting their competitiveness against conventional natural gas. It examines the current volume of shale gas resources in Europe and performs a detailed cost calculation to provide an estimation of shale gas production costs. The results indicate that under current market conditions the repetition of the US shale gas boom is by all measures improbable in Europe. Furthermore, in the case that natural prices were to return to historically higher levels, only a few highly productive shale gas formations would be economically competitive.

European Commission Strives Toward Reasonable Shale-Gas Regulation

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 175503, “Toward Reasonable European Shale-Gas Regulation—The European Commission’s 2014 Recommendation and Communication on Shale-Gas Extraction,” by Ruven Fleming, University of Groningen, prepared for the 2015 SPE Offshore Europe Conference and Exhibition, Aberdeen, 8–11 September. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Following years of deliberation, the European Union (EU) released a recommendation on unconventional hydrocarbons and a related communication in 2014. Although these documents are not legally binding on member states, they are nevertheless of great significance because they indicate, for the first time, the current and likely future stance of EU institutions on the regulation of unconventional hydrocarbons. This paper traces the origins and development of these documents, which provide vital clues for the road ahead in European shale-gas regulation. Introduction The potential threats of groundwater contamination, irresponsible disposal of flowback, the repercussions of significant land use, and increased emission of greenhouse gases have been named in recent scientific studies as main potential threats of shale-gas extraction. The current European law framework on environmental protection, mainly consisting of directives and regulations, entails some gaps and does not cover these issues comprehensively. Thus, the EU took recent action to develop shale-gas-specific regulation in order to close the identified gaps in the existing general framework. Because the existing secondary law norms were elaborated at a time when shale gas extraction was virtually unknown in Europe, one would suspect that they entail provisions that do not sufficiently cover the specific potential threats of this technique. Indeed, there are a number of issues. Probably the most important one is that environmental impact assessments (EIAs) are not compulsory for shale-gas projects. Although member states have the right to require an EIA for specific, individual shale-gas projects, this discretion does not appropriately match the level of potential environmental hazards of shale-gas extraction. The paper does not engage in an analysis of the pre-existing EU regulatory framework but focuses on the EU’s efforts to close the gaps in the framework that have been discovered previously. The EU introduced nonbinding, soft-law measures in this regard to create a level playing field among all member states in the form of the 2014 Shale Gas Recommendation and the 2014 Shale Gas Communication. The paper highlights the main features of the recommendation and the communication and considers whether they are sufficient to close the gaps in the EU secondary law framework. Overall, the author concludes that these measures go a long way in addressing the perceived gaps, although they do not succeed in closing all of them.

Can the Polish shale gas dog still bark? Politics and policy of unconventional hydrocarbons in Poland

The article is based on a throughout analysis of Polish and Western debate on shale gas as well as on interviews with key Polish experts and policymakers, and aims at reconstructing the recent history of development of shale gas in Poland and at mapping how various factors and actors have interacted in this process. Although the country’s membership in the EU makes the understanding of the EU regulatory framework important in this context, the main focus of the article is on how the issues have been addressed in Poland, the country that was believed to be best suited to become European shale gas success story. The article sheds light on how four factors – the national energy governance, social acceptance and geological conditions, combined with the Polish approach to energy security – have contributed to the process of shaping of the Polish policy on development of shale gas in a period between 2005 and 2015. By examining the question of development of unconventional energy resources in the Polish and European context this article seeks to address following questions to be covered in the special issue of the journal:•perceptions of risk and socially constructed debate on unconventional gas;•developments in individual countries (Poland) and in the EU;•national concerns about externalities;•the adequacy of current EU regulation and its reception in member states.

The European Commission's Approach Towards Safe Shale Gas Extraction

Given the long-standing absence of specific European regulation on unconventional hydrocarbons, a range of different views on the applicability of the existing regulatory framework evolved. Following years of deliberation, the EU finally released a Recommendation on unconventional hydrocarbons and a related Communication in 2014. The current chapter highlights the main pillars of the 2014 Recommendation on unconventional hydrocarbons, assesses these documents and traces their origins and development, as this provides vital clues for the road ahead in European shale gas regulation. Although these documents are not legally binding on Member States they are, nevertheless, of great significance. For the first time they indicate the current and likely future stance of EU institutions on the regulation of unconventional hydrocarbons. Overall, it will be concluded that the European Commission resisted numerous calls for implementing an unnecessarily intrusive and legally questionable set of new rules. Instead, the Commission adopted a flexible and open approach to unconventional hydrocarbon extraction. The 2014 Recommendation may be characterized as a first step towards a more earnest thinking about shale gas regulation at EU level. Its big advantage is the leeway for discretion of Member States concerning the implementation of their own regulatory strategies.

Hydraulic Fracturing in the European Union: Leveraging the U.S. Experience in Shale Gas Exploration and Production

Hydraulic fracturing has been the subject of much debate recently, both in the United States and increasingly in Europe. Advances in hydraulic fracturing technology have led to a shale gas boom in the United States, significantly lowering natural gas prices, and causing some foreign businesses to move manufacturing plants from Europe to the United States. In the United States, approximately 11,000 new wells are “fracked” each year, adding to the currently existing 35,000 wells. When compared to these numbers, European shale gas exploration remains in its infancy and commercial scale gas extraction has yet to be established. At the same time, many Member States in the European Union consider the exploration of unconventional fossil fuels essential for their energy security and independence from Russian gas. While natural gas is a cleaner burning fossil fuel than oil, the fracking process itself, as well as its requisite infrastructure, brings with it numerous environmental and health concerns. As shale gas exploration progresses further and is commercially developed, many previously unrecognized and underestimated concerns have become more prevalent. The use of fresh water during the process of fracturing and the potential for pollution of surface and groundwater are only two examples of such concerns. In fact, a clear picture of the types and quantities of chemicals being used as additives in fracking fluids injected into the ground and the risks they may pose for the environment or human health has been lacking. In the United States, under the Safe Drinking Water Act, a permit is required only if diesel fuels are used as additives in fracking fluids. Yet, there is no definite clarity with respect to whether operators are actually using diesel fuels as additives or how much is being used.With little or no experience in shale gas development, Europe is looking toward the United States as a potential model for its nascent regulatory framework. While there is a patchwork of EU directives that address fracturing, there are specific shortcomings due to the fact that shale gas development has not been pursued in Europe. The European Commission and the European Parliament continue to evaluate the impact of fracturing on the environment and human health, and have already released numerous studies and reports. It is the objective of these initiatives to ensure that the environmental risks arising from shale gas projects and cumulative developments are adequately identified and managed in Europe. In addition, the European Union is attempting to establish a common regulatory approach allowing for a comparable and coherent regulatory environment across the European Union and all its Member States.This article analyzes the existing regulatory frameworks in the United States and European Union as they relate to hydraulic fracturing of shale gas. It is argued that while the United States’ experience may serve as an example for the European Union, the shale gas boom in the United States has raised a host of environmental and health concerns that need to be addressed. At the same time, the United States may be well advised to consider some of the developments in Europe, where, for example, mutual non-disclosure agreements regarding damages to the environment and human health may not be allowed.

Assessment of European Shale-Gas Play Takes Social Acceptance Into Account

This article, written by Editorial Manager Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 152339, ’Assessment of an Unusual European Shale-Gas Play: The Cambro- Ordovician Alum Shale, Southern Sweden,’ by Wilfred Pool, Mark Geluk, Janneke Abels, and Graham Tiley, Shell International E&amp;P, and Erdem Idiz and Elise Leenaarts, Shell Global Solutions International, prepared for the 2012 SPE/EAGE European Unconventional Resources Conference and Exhibition, Vienna, Austria, 20-22 March. The paper has not been peer reviewed. In 2008, Shell obtained two licenses for unconventional gas exploration in the Skåne region of southern Sweden, with a total size of 2500 km2. The objective was the Cambro-Ordovician alum shale, one of the thickest and richest marine source rocks in onshore northern Europe. Concerns from the residents of Skåne regarding the visual impact of activities and potential impact of drilling activities on the aquifers and on the tourism industry have resulted in extensive engagements with stakeholders and specific requirements around seismic acquisition, site preparation, and operations. Introduction In 2006 and 2007, a screening study for potential unconventional basins was undertaken in Shell. The focus for this screening was to identify basins with excellent source rocks because unconventional gas systems require excellent, gas-prone source rocks in the right maturity window. Several source-rock systems were screened, one of which was the Lower Paleozoic system on the east European platform. This system has a considerable regional extent, stretching more than 1500 km from Denmark in the northwest to the Moesian platform in Romania and Bulgaria in the southeast. The derisking strategy for this opportunity was based on both technical and nontechnical aspects. The aim was to collect geological and geophysical data to constrain depth and thickness of the shale and to identify potential dolerite dykes. In addition, well data were needed to establish rock properties and gas content. Sweden does not have much exposure to hydrocarbon-related activities, and the application for the two licenses in Skåne resulted in nationwide press attention, especially when it was realized that these were so-called unconventional hydrocarbons. People in the Skåne region were concerned about the impact of the exploration activities in these licenses. The mindset in Shell from the start was to perform the exploration (and, in case of success, the appraisal and production activities) in a sustainable way with minimal impact to ensure social acceptance.

Scenarios on European energy security: Outcomes of natural gas strategy in 2020

This paper adopts a futuristic methodology and analyzes the role of natural gas in European energy security in order to transform economic and policy uncertainties into meaningful scenarios. It implements “trend analysis” to forecast the volume of gas needed until 2020 by elaborating the estimates of the EU Commission and “scenario building” to come up with alternative futures forging different regional implications. The economic analysis stems from four scenarios as introduced by the EU Commission: (1) baseline scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (2) baseline scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl; (3) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 61$/bbl; (4) New Energy Policy scenario with average oil price of 100$/bbl. The policy analysis is derived from the options, restraints, priorities and strategies of the concerned actors which include the EU Commission, selected EU members, suppliers and transit countries. The analysis on actors results in four policy scenarios: (1) Russia first; (2) Russia everywhere; (3) security first; (4) each for itself. The matrix, which excludes the possibility of unprecedented developments such as a drastic increase in European shale gas production or continuing global recession, clusters 16 contingencies. The paper, within this context, gives an idea on how alternative policy options of European energy security may lead to different futures based on oil prices, environmental commitments and strategic initiatives of the concerned actors.

Europe Gears Up for the Shale Gale

The European shale gas revolution is still in its infancy and though its commercial potential could rival that of North America, significant challenges lie ahead. France has put a moratorium on shale gas activity while a comprehensive study into its environmental impact is being carried out, and its National Assembly has voted in favor of a ban on hydraulic fracturing. The potential for shale gas production in Europe is undoubted, as consultancy IHS CERA estimates that Europe’s total shale gas in place could be 6,115 Tcf. Among the key challenges that will determine the ultimate productivity in Europe is a regulatory environment that is currently ill-suited to unconventional gas, the company said. “Regulations designed for traditional exploration and production in Amsterdam. “We expect Europe to be a significant part of future activity.” Poland Leads the Way Poland plays host to Europe’s largest known reserves of shale gas. Leasing activity in the country’s three main basins—the Baltic Basin, the Podlasie Basin in the east, and the Lublin Basin to the south—is well under way. The country is keen to push forward with shale gas production as it looks to break away from its reliance on Russian gas supplies. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that Poland has 792 Tcf of risked shale gas in place, with 514 Tcf in the Baltic Basin, 222 Tcf in the Lublin Basin, and the remainder in the Podlasie Basin. Chevron and ExxonMobil have been joined by a large number of smaller players such as DPV Service, Cuadrilla, EUR Energy, and Mazovia Energy in securing acreage across the country. Talisman is carrying out seismic acquisition on con-cessions in the Baltic Basin and it is on track to spud its first two shale gas wells in the fourth quarter of this year, the company said. It moved into the Polish plays through a farm-in arrangement with San Leon Energy for a 60% interest in San Leon’s three concessions. Talisman is committed to drilling a minimum of three wells—Gdansk-W, Braniewo-S, and Szczawno—which cover 600,000 acres. Three optional wells with horizontal sections will be drilled after a successful first phase of testing. San Leon is also engaged in a five-year exploration and development program on its two concessions, Nowa Sol and Wschowa in the Permian Basin South. Both concessions are on trend with prolific Rotliegendes gas and Zechstein oil production. Nexen recently entered into an agreement with Marathon to jointly explore 10 concessions in Poland’s Paleozoic shale play and it says it will pump USD 100 million into shale-related activities. Nexen will acquire a 40% working interest in the concessions, which encompass more than 2 million acres. Marathon is acquiring 2D seismic this year and plans to drill one or two wells in the fourth quarter and potentially seven or eight wells during 2012.

Shale gas in Europe: a regional overview and current research activities

Abstract Shale gas is produced from fine-grained siliciclastic sediments that are typically rich in organic carbon. Nearly all shales contain thermal gas generated in situ at mature to overmature levels of thermal alteration, although gas of biogenic origin is also produced from some shales. While shale gas production in the USA began in 1821, it is only in the last few years that it has become widely significant (currently about 8% of the domestic gas). In contrast, European shale gas exploration is still in its infancy. In general, European sedimentary basins offer the best potential for shale gas occurrence because thick, organic matter-rich sediments occur in nearly all Phanerozoic strata. Even so, there is little knowledge about the factors controlling shale gas generation and, more importantly, shale gas production in European basins. These factors are not necessarily the same as those that control commercial shale gas production in the USA. Palaeozoic sediments of Cambrian to Ordovician age are currently being tested for their shale gas potential and productivity in Sweden, as are those of Silurian age in Poland. Moreover, Lower and Upper Carboniferous sedimentary successions from England in the west to Poland in the east probably contain shale gas, but their depth, thickness and thermal maturity may be limiting factors for exploration in continental regions. Lower Carboniferous black shales in the Dniepr–Donets Basin of the Ukraine may also hold a significant potential. Moreover, organic-rich sediments of Oligocene/Miocene age in the Paratethyan Basin may offer shale gas potential, for example in the Pannonian Basin. At present, Upper Jurassic black shales are currently being tested for their shale gas potential in the Vienna Basin. European analogues of known biogenic shale gas systems may occur locally in organic-rich Lower Cretaceous sediments in the North German Basin with gas generation being related to Pleistocene glaciation/deglaciation cycles.