European Party Research Articles

Does Health Vulnerability Predict Voting for Right-Wing Populist Parties in Europe?

Why do voters in developed democracies support right-wing populist parties? Existing research focuses on economic and cultural vulnerability as driving this phenomenon. We hypothesize that perceptions of personal health vulnerability might have a similar influence on voters. To test this argument, we analyzed all waves of the European Social Survey (2002–2020). Our findings suggest that voters with worse self-reported health were significantly more likely to vote for right-wing populist parties. The relationship persists even after accounting for measures of cultural and economic vulnerability, as well as voters’ satisfaction with both their personal lives and their country’s health system. The influence of health on support for right-wing populist parties appears to be greater than that of income and self-reported economic insecurity, while less than that of gender and attitudes about immigrants. Our findings suggest that policies affecting public health could shape not only health outcomes but also the political landscape.

Mediators explaining radical right voting patterns of Christians in Europe: Attitudes toward immigrants, values, or social capital?

Previous studies show that radical right parties in Europe receive relatively low levels of supports from Christian voters, despite that Christian value is highlighted in the European radical right agenda. However, the mechanism remains largely untested. The study investigates the factors underlying Christians voting or not voting for populist radical right parties across Europe, using Round 8 European Social Survey data. It is shown that there is no general relationship between Christian religiosity and radical right voting across European countries. In most countries, Christians are neither more nor less likely to vote for the radical right parties compared to the non-religious. When Christians are underrepresented in radical right supporters, it can hardly be explained by tolerance towards immigrants, pro-social values or social capital presumed to be fostered by Christian religion and church engagement. In some other cases, where Christians are more likely to vote for radical right parties, it is likely to be driven by anti-immigrant attitudes, authoritarian values and moral conservative values. In addition, Christians could have been more mobilizable for radical right parties due to their authoritarian and moral conservative values, which have not been fully capitalized. The study suggests that Christian religiosity does not serve as an “antidote” to the radical right. Tolerance towards immigrants, pro-social values or social capital are rarely the mechanisms driving European Christians away from supporting radical right parties.

A change of heart? Analysing stability and change in European party positions

Political parties are often assumed to be adaptive, strategic organisations that continuously alter their policy positions to maximise electoral support. However, ideological continuity is an integral part of democratic representation as well. How do parties balance these seemingly conflicting roles? This study combines insights from spatial models of elections and cleavage theory to explain stability and change in European party positions. Embracing the multidimensionality of the policy space, I argue that a party’s reputation and durable party-voter linkages constrain positional change on its more salient, primary dimension. Yet, by remaining ideologically true to its supporters’ key concerns, a party can strategically shift on secondary issues outside of its core agenda. Cross-sectional time series analysis of party positions (1999–2019) across fourteen Western European countries confirms this prediction, especially for small to medium-sized and opposition parties. This finding has important implications for our understanding of party strategy and democratic representation. Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at: https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2021.1915659 .

Voting for Jobbik and the Front National

Abstract The article explores the perceptions of socio-economic change among voters of two European neo-nationalist parties: Jobbik in Hungary and Front National in France. Building on Karl Polanyi’s ‘double-movement’ framework, it advances the argument that marketization of societies is prone to: first, generate individual- and group-level psychological experiences of nostalgia, relative deprivation, and status frustration; and relatedly, second, engender a demand for political refuge in the form of populist nationalism. To empirically substantiate my propositions, I draw on a variety of public opinion data to find the signs of these demand-driven mechanisms. Overall, I find that voters from the working and lower middle-classes, made insecure by socio-economic transformations, have resorted to the neo-nationalist solution as an alternative system of identification, and as a coping strategy. Jobbik and Front National have politicized the frame of the ‘sovereign people’ in congruence with citizens’ perceived frustrations and vulnerabilities. The analysis also suggests that disenfranchised voters are more discontent with the experience of socio-economic decline, and the feeling of betrayal by the elites, than are essentially intolerant towards minorities.

The Characteristics of the Nordic right-wing populism

The last two decades have seen the rise of right-wing parties in Europe, spurred among other things by a series of crises, the latest of which being the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark did not find themselves isolated from the political and socio-economic shocks and aftershocks of such events, and right-wing populist parties and movements belonging to the Nordic region have also gained strength, sometimes even being a part of governments. However, these parties have certain characteristics that distinguish them from their counterparts in the rest of the Europe, given the specific social, political, economic and historical context of the region. Such traits can be listed as welfare chauvinism, right-wing egalitarianism, authoritarian positions on sociocultural issues, and populist, anti-establishment drive. At the same time, these parties have demonstrated their high pragmatism and ability for adaptation to the current political situation in their countries. In this work a quick overview is presented of the principles of four major right-wing parties in the Nordic region (The Finns Party, Sweden Democrats, Norwegian Progress Party, and Danish People’s Party), and the differences and similarities in their motivations are discussed.

LUCIANO BARDI, WOJCIECH GAGATEK, CARINE GERMOND, KARL MAGNUS JOHANSSON, WOLFRAM KEISER, SILVIA SASSANO The European Ambition. The Group of the European People’s Party and European Integration

The book by Luciano Bardi, Wojciech Gagatek, Carine Germond, Karl Magnus Johansson, Wolfram Keiser, Silvia Sassano, „The European Ambition. The Group of the European People’s Party and European Integration” is the result of the six authors’ cooperation and research on the evolution and activities of the Christian Democratic Group (CD) and then the European People’s Party (EPP). It constitutes a contribution to a series of publications analyzing the evolution of the European political groupings and their unique influence on the politics and development of the European Union. In the first part of the work, Wolfram Keiser characterizes the genesis, nature and evolution of the CD/EPP Group. In this chapter, author does not shy away from showing the political and historical background of the decisions made by the EPP. In the second chapter we find an in-depth analysis of the impact that the EPP had on the development of further institutional reforms and preparation of the EU treaties, including an exceptional impact on the constitutionalization and strengthening of the position of the European Parliament (EP). Carine Germond in the third part analyzes the role of the Group in creating and conducting policy within the European Union. She chose four most important areas: economic and monetary policy, social, ecological/environmental and agricultural policy for her analysis. Chapter four offers considerations on the impact and shaping of another important sphere – the EU’s external relations, including foreign security and defense, trade (including foreign trade), development policy and finally the EU enlargement policy. In chapter five, Luciano Bardi deals with the EPP from the perspective a political party and its influence on the development of the European party system. He placed the analysis of the EPP’s position as a key actor on the European Parliament’s party scene in the context of the EPP’s role in relations with EU institutions, in the foreground with the EP, but also with the Commission and the European Council. The work is based on the analysis of program documents, election manifestos of one of the most important political groups at the pan-European level, which have still the greatest influence on political decisions made in the EU. It must be stressed, this is valuable and very interesting work, and the reader will certainly not be disappointed with this publication.

New Challenger Parties in Opposition: Isolation or Cooperation?

Abstract The context of European parties has been through a process of significant transformation in recent years, with the fall of traditional mainstream parties and the rise of challenger parties. Despite their significant differences, mainly at the ideological level, we argue that challenger parties share some common characteristics when they first enter parliament. Namely, we expect them to employ a similar strategy as regards their relationship with the other party actors and to attempt to send the same message to their electorate: that they represent the alternative to existing parties, be it in government or in opposition, and will behave accordingly in parliament. We test our expectations by analysing and comparing the cooperation attitudes of challenger parties vis-à-vis the other opposition parties, using legislative co-sponsorship during their first term in parliament as an indicator and Social Network Analysis as a method.

The European Union: Consociational Past, Centripetal Future?

ABSTRACT Consociational interpretations of the European Union (EU) are well established and help to explain the political stability of the 27-member state system. In contrast, the increasingly common centripetal elements have not yet received systematic attention. Using a framework originally designed to map the choices for divided societies, this article highlights centripetalism in EU party regulation and proposals for electoral reform. Going beyond the spatial distribution requirements that play such a central role in aggregative institutions in the EU, the article suggests that cross-national districts rather than a supra-national district provide the strongest incentive for European parties to organise EU-wide campaigns on European issues, fielding candidates with cross-national appeal. The article concludes with a reflection on the relationship between consociational and centripetal elements in the EU. It shows that consociationalism and centripetalism in the EU can continue to co-exist, though the balance is likely to change.

Who Survives and Who Does Not? The Rise and Decline of Personalized Parties

The analysis of parties created around charismatic leaders is becoming more important in dynamic times when the mainstream parties are challenged by outsiders. Most of the research on personalized parties focuses on Western Europe although the phenomenon has significant implications for East European party systems. This article examines the development of two highly electorally successful personalized parties in Bulgaria: National Movement Simeon the Second (NDSV) and Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB), the incumbent ruling party. Their similar success but different paths of development provide a good basis for examining the stabilizing factors of personalized parties. The article fills a gap in the theoretical field by using information from qualitative interviews with high-level party members and proves that adoption of an organizational strategy is the key factor for survival. Examining a case of the emergence of personalized parties, the research finds that alongside charismatic leaders, investment in local branches and representation in localities are stabilizing factors when the popularity of the leader decreases and in this way secure the more stable development of the party.

The politics of unilateral secession in the European Union: the case of Catalonia

ABSTRACT We analyse the politics of unilateral secession in the European Union (EU), focusing on the Catalan secessionist conflict. Building on a triangulation strategy, within which primary data are cross-checked through semi-structured expert interviews, we examine how the involved central state and secessionist sub-state actor fought for the support of the supranational party within the EU’s multilevel framework. We make two entrenched contributions. We find that the Spanish government succeeded in securing the status quo, not only because of its relations within the bigger European party groups and the benevolent support of EU member states, but also because of the secessionist-restraining nature of the EU. The EU switched from the position of non-intervention towards one of open support for the central state government, and as a result it has developed an informal framework which could deter future unilateral secession intentions.

Voting for Populism in Europe: Globalization, Technological Change, and the Extreme Right

What are the political consequences of economic globalization? Since the 1990s, scholars of European party politics have noted the rise of extremist parties, especially right-wing populist ones, and the decline of mainstream left and right parties. This paper focuses on the association between globalization in terms of trade, capital and labor flows, technological change, and popular support for extreme right parties. I examine these relations at the regional and individual level in 15 advanced industrial democracies in Western Europe from 1990 to 2018. Globalization, especially in the form of trade, is associated with growing vote shares for extreme right parties. Technological change in the form of automation increases support for extreme right parties. The financial crisis enhanced support for populist right parties and strengthened the negative relationship between trade shocks and declining support for mainstream left parties. And the use of social welfare compensation seems unable to dampen these political trends.1

On the prospects of European periphery parties

This article presents an analysis of the activities of three European parties: the European democratic party, the European Free Alliance, and the European Christian political movement, which currently occupy marginal positions in the political forefront of Europe. A brief historical overview of the emergence and formation of each of these parties is given, as well as their ideological platforms and membership base. The results of their participation in the European elections are considered and it is noted with which parties factions in the European Parliament the MEPs elected from these parties cooperate. In conclusion, an analysis of the future development prospects of these parties, including their possible coalitions with other European parties, is presented.

The Study on Changes and the Problems in the Framework of European Parliament’s Left-wing Party Groups

The changing political landscapes of European parties are reflectedthrough the changes in the pattern of the European Parliamentary Party Group and thatof the left-wing party groups. Taking S&D, GUE/NGL and Greens/EFA as the researchobject, the paper summarizes the main characteristics of the changes in the pattern ofthe party group, and puts forward the main problems highlighted in the contemporaryEuropean politics. By summarizing the overall characteristics of the changes in theEuropean Parliamentary Party Groups, the paper analyzes the implied issues further soas to obtain a clear understanding of the evolution of the European Left Party Groups,to get familiar with the current situation of European left-wing political parties’development, to analyze the volatility of European political ecosystem, and to predictits future development.

The role of economic and cultural changes in the rise of far‐right in Greece: A regional analysis

AbstractThe recent strengthening of right‐wing and far‐right populism is one of the greatest political manifestations of our times and a dominant feature of the current European political landscape. In Greece, its rise coincided with a period of a prolonged financial aid programme (“bailouts”) imposing harsh austerity measures and deep structural reforms. The objective of this study is to assess the extent to which the spatially differentiated gains of Golden Dawn, one of the most anti‐establishment, anti‐migrant and anti‐EU political parties in Europe, were due to (socio‐)economic or cultural changes (or both) that took place in the country in recent years. The findings provide evidence in favour of the combined role of (socio‐)economic and cultural grievances; however, the former seem to be more important than the latter.

The populist challenge to European defense

ABSTRACT This article assesses the consequences and implications of the rise of European populist parties for European defense cooperation. Focusing on six of the most prominent populist parties in Europe today, we examine their positions along three important defense-related issues: recommended national force posture; integrated military forces; and main national security threats. To determine their position on these three issues, we examine every party manifesto and, if available, official party document on security and defense policy since 2010. We argue that the rise of populism in Europe does not represent an inflection point for the future of European defense cooperation. Instead, our analysis reveals the following three findings: European defense cooperation will continue to be essentially ad hoc, functionally driven, and issue specific; populist parties’ attitudes and preferences regarding European defense cooperation both overlap with and diverge from those of other populists and non-populists in the EU; and populism over time may contribute to a shift in domestic preferences toward a Europe that more readily embraces military power.

Centre-right parties and immigration in an era of politicisation

ABSTRACT While not typically the focus for academic or journalistic analyses, centre right political parties have been, are and will likely remain key actors in migration policy and politics across Europe. This special issue introduction questions and qualifies the extent to which the 2015 migration crisis affected centre-right parties’ politics, positioning and policy positions on immigration, problematising the idea that the crisis represented an ‘external’ challenge to party politics and stressing instead the agency and role of political parties in imbuing crisis-like events with particular meanings. It argues that the crisis refracted and intensified social and value conflicts that were already developing in European party politics. While some policy innovations did occur, they tended to confirm directions that were evident before – sometimes long before – the crisis. The article emphasizes the need to pay attention to significant variation within the centre-right party family on immigration policy, and changes made over time by parties preoccupied with public opinion, with inter-party competition and with challenges posed by real-world events that were often beyond their control, but also with internal power struggles.

How ex-Communist left parties reformed and lost

In the 1990s, many left-wing parties abandoned their traditional economic policies and adopted more pro-market economic stances. Central and Eastern Europe offers a useful context to explore the impact of these policies on the electoral fortunes of the left-wing parties that adopted them. Although rewarded at first with electoral victories, the adaptation of pro-market positions had a less straightforward impact on the left-wing parties’ electoral fortunes in the long run. CHES data on party positions and ESS survey data on party support show that pro-market left parties obtain reduced support; this effect is particularly pronounced among the economically vulnerable occupational groups. In countries with more pro-market left parties, these groups have a higher propensity to vote for right-wing parties. These findings highlight important parallels between the dynamics of Western and Central and Eastern European party systems.

The European Union and political behaviour: The shadow of the Great Recession

The symposium aims to analyse the politicisation of the European issue following the onset of the Eurozone crisis, in particular its impact on individual attitudes and voting both at the national and supranational level. By way of an introduction, we address the state of the art on the importance of the Eurozone crisis for EU politicisation, as well as outlining each article and its contribution. While our authors may sometimes focus on different dependent variables, they all speak to the question of whether the Great Recession made a lasting difference, and whether EU politicisation matters. Most articles are longitudinal, and test for changes due to the crisis (Dassonneville, Lewis- Beck and Jabbour; Ruiz-Rufino; Talving and Vasilopoulou; Jurado and Navarrete). But preoccupation with the Great Recession is also present in the articles assessing the political learning that unfolded from it (Ruiz-Rufino), or the ones which investigate whether EU effects can be detected during the post-crisis years (Talving and Vasilopoulou; Lobo and Pannico; Heyne and Lobo). Despite the diversity of approaches, and certain differences in findings, each article contributes to a major debate ongoing in the literature, especially three key debates which have arisen: the crisis’ impact on European party systems, economic voting, and the degree of legitimacy of democratic systems.

To Democratize or to Protect? How the Response to Anti‐System Parties Reshapes the EU's Transnational Party System

AbstractThis article studies how efforts to democratize the European Union's (EU) decision‐making procedures are reshaped by the growing influence of anti‐system parties in Europe. This new political landscape exacerbates a fundamental democratic dilemma for the EU: to either open up, and further democratize its institutions or to work to protect those institutions from the influence of anti‐systemic actors. The article analyses how political elites engage with this dilemma by studying a process unfolding from 2010 to 2019 through which reforms to the EU's transnational party system were introduced. Building on extensive interview and debate data the analysis demonstrates that, while a democratizing logic informed early stages of the process, a protective logic gradually became dominant. The article goes on to discuss the possible implications of this shift for the continued democratization of the EU and identifies this dimension in EU politics as a pertinent field for further study.

Attitudes towards immigration at the regional level in Europe in times of crisis

At the aftermath of the 2008 financial and socio–economic crisis, there had been a boom of nationalist parties in Europe that included anti–immigration measures in their programs. In this study, we analyse the relationship between socioeconomic status and anti–immigrant sentiment at the regional level by using geographically weighted regression. In doing so we use data from the fist years of the financial crisis, when most of European countries were beginning to experience its consequences at an economic, social and political level. Our findings confirm the suitability of spatial analysis to explain regional differences in attitudes towards immigration. Although inter–country or macro–regional comparisons might be useful to explain anti–immigrant sentiments, the general validity of these large–scale geographic areas could be questioned when descending to a regional level. The information provided at the regional level might be useful to identify regions where policy makers should aim integration policies to reduce citizens’ negative attitudes towards immigrants.