Estimates Of Vital Rates Research Articles

Disaggregating Death Rates of Age-Groups Using Deep Learning Algorithms

Reliable estimates of age-specific vital rates are crucial in demographic studies, while ages are, in most cases, commonly grouped in bins of five years. Indeed, public health and national systems require single age-specific data to achieve accurate social planning. This paper introduces a deep learning approach for splitting the abridged death rates, providing a more comprehensive perspective on the indirect age-specific vital rates estimation from grouped data. Additionally, we contribute to the existing literature by introducing a multi-population (countries and genders) approach, providing reliable estimates considering the heterogeneity of longevity dynamics over age, years, and across populations. We also contribute to the state of the art in indirect estimation by introducing, for the first time, a multi-population indirect estimation leveraging subnational data. Our model accurately captures mortality dynamics by age over time and among different populations. We prove the model’s ability to estimate reliable predictions of age-specific mortality rates by also studying how the hyperparameters’ choice affects the model reliability and analyzing the age-specific relative differences between the real and the estimated mortality rates.

Factors influencing population growth in a bobcat population

AbstractBobcats (Lynx rufus) are the most broadly distributed native felid in North America and have substantial ecological and economic importance. Despite this importance, little is known about factors influencing population dynamics of this cryptic carnivore. Given recent apparent declines in abundance, we investigated population growth rate (λ) for a bobcat population in the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA, 2016–2022. We constructed and evaluated a females‐only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained over 6 years, was 0.85 (95% CI = 0.72, 1.02), which indicates that the vital rates in 2016–2022 were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity and sensitivity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in kitten and juvenile survival and adult reproductive contribution. Life‐stage simulation analysis also supported that adult survival was most important; however, the juvenile survival (91 day–1 year) component of a bobcat's first year of life was also important and a stronger influence on population growth than the kitten survival (first 90 days) component. For the combination of survival and reproductive rates we estimated positive population growth required either annual adult survival >0.85 or 275‐day juvenile survival >0.35, regardless of other vital rates. When assuming a baseline harvest rate of 23.5%, reducing the harvest rate to 9% led to a positive mean growth rate and a >0.50 probability of a growing population. Monitoring juvenile‐to‐adult harvest ratios can provide an indicator of age structure in the population, and we recommend restricting harvest when that ratio falls below 10%, particularly when managers lack research information on population growth.

Identifying indicators of polar bear population status

Monitoring trends in large mammal populations is a fundamental component of wildlife management and conservation. However, direct estimates of population size and vital rates of large mammals can be logistically challenging and expensive. Indicators that reflect trends in abundance, therefore, can be valuable tools for supporting population monitoring. Polar bears have a relatively simple life history such that a few key variables may be effective indicators for tracking changes in body condition and recruitment that affect abundance. Direct estimates of polar bear abundance are difficult to obtain due to their large home ranges in remote Arctic habitats. Changes in abundance associated with environmental conditions appear to affect polar bears largely via effects on female body condition which influence reproduction and cub survival (i.e., recruitment). Loss of sea ice habitat is further limiting researcher access for population monitoring creating a need for alternative approaches. Here we used relationships established from eight years (2008–2017) of data collected on 439 polar bears in the Chukchi Sea, to transform previously published individual-based relationships with annually available sea ice, atmospheric circulation, and prey body condition variables to predict annual mean body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022. Although annual sample sizes were limited for verifying predicted body condition and recruitment via techniques such as cross-validation, in most cases predicted annual means were closely correlated with observed means for 2008–2017. Summer sea ice and prey body condition remained within or increased relative to levels observed during 2008–2017 and predicted polar bear body condition and recruitment during 2018–2022 were largely within or above observed annual means during 2008–2017. A lack of trend in environmental and ecological variables or polar bear body condition and recruitment metrics during 2008–2022 is suggestive that the Chukchi Sea polar bear population was likely stable during this time. Our results provide support for developing models that predict important population parameters of large mammals based on environmental and ecological indicators. Given that trend information is lacking for 10 of the 19 recognized polar bear populations and is outdated for others, the use of environmental and ecological indicators may be particularly useful for augmenting direct estimates of polar bear vital rates in between periods of data collection. Although demographic assessments for polar bears have primarily focused on correlations with sea ice availability, our study and others highlight that prey health is also an important indicator of polar bear population status.

Evaluating the importance of individual heterogeneity in reproduction to Weddell seal population dynamics using integral projection models.

Identifying and accounting for unobserved individual heterogeneity in vital rates in demographic models is important for estimating population-level vital rates and identifying diverse life-history strategies, but much less is known about how this individual heterogeneity influences population dynamics. We aimed to understand how the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproductive and survival rates influenced population dynamics using vital rates from a Weddell seal population by altering the distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction, which also altered the distribution of individual survival rates through the incorporation of our estimate of the correlation between the two rates and assessing resulting changes in population growth. We constructed an integral projection model (IPM) structured by age and reproductive state using estimates of vital rates for a long-lived mammal that has recently been shown to exhibit large individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Using output from the IPM, we evaluated how population dynamics changed with different underlying distributions of unobserved individual heterogeneity in reproduction. Results indicate that the changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity in reproduction cause very small changes in the population growth rate and other population metrics. The largest difference in the estimated population growth rate resulting from changes to the underlying distribution of individual heterogeneity was less than 1%. Our work highlights the differing importance of individual heterogeneity at the population level compared to the individual level. Although individual heterogeneity in reproduction may result in large differences in the lifetime fitness of individuals, changing the proportion of above- or below-average breeders in the population results in much smaller differences in annual population growth rate. For a long-lived mammal with stable and high adult-survival that gives birth to a single offspring, individual heterogeneity in reproduction has a limited effect on population dynamics. We posit that the limited effect of individual heterogeneity on population dynamics may be due to canalization of life-history traits.

Bomb radiocarbon dating reveals 40‐year lifespan of Shovelnose Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus)—Implications for stock assessments of long‐lived, primitive fishes

AbstractStock assessments for Shovelnose Sturgeon have largely been limited to age and growth analyses using pectoral fin rays despite potential underestimation of age and lack of age validation. Fisheries stock assessments rely on accurate estimates of vital rates for effective fisheries management, within which fish age and lifespan are of primary importance. Age was estimated using pectoral fin rays and otolith sections, and bomb radiocarbon (14C) dating was applied to otolith cores to determine lifespan and validate ages. Age reading of fin rays was straightforward, whereas most otolith thin sections provided two age‐reading scenarios: lumping (primary increments) or splitting (finer increments) presumed annuli. While fin‐ray estimates led to a maximum age of 14 years, otolith estimates led to maximum ages of 27 and 42 years.14C dating provided support for a combination of lumping early in life, to splitting in later years, and validation of a ~40‐year lifespan. Age reading of otoliths was imprecise and resulted in ~40% of thin sections that were not age scoreable. However, scoreable otolith sections, coupled with14C dating, resulted in growth and lifespan information that are the most accurate to date for Shovelnose Sturgeon and can be used as a baseline toward stock assessment refinements.

Juvenile Northern Spotted Owls with higher mass and intermediate levels of corticosterone have greater long-term survival

Abstract Early life experiences have carry-over effects that manifest in later life stages. Challenging rearing environments result in more energy invested in immediate survival and less energy on growth and maturation, which can decrease survival in both the short- and long-term. One way to measure differences in energy allocation to growth between individuals is through physiological indices, such as concentrations of the metabolic hormone corticosterone, and body condition. Corticosterone increases in response to challenges to homeostasis and mobilizes stored fat and muscle to meet energetic demands. Maintaining elevated corticosterone can result in poor body condition and decreased survival. Juvenile or pre-breeding age classes are typically a substantial portion of the total population and serve key functions in population dynamics in many long-lived species. Thus, understanding how the rearing environment may influence demographics across life-history stages is crucial to understanding larger population dynamics. Yet, demographic models and conservation planning often lack vital rate estimates for early life stages because, prior to breeding, animals cannot be effectively sampled (i.e., they are unobservable). We used corticosterone concentrations in feathers and body mass of fledged juvenile Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) as indicators of potential energetic limitations early in life and used a multi-state modeling framework to quantify the effect of these indicators on apparent annual survival prior to claiming a territory (pre-territorial birds) and the probability of recruiting into the territorial population. Apparent annual survival for pre-territorial birds was higher for birds with greater mass, earlier banding dates, and intermediate levels of corticosterone. Birds with greater mass at banding were also more likely to recruit into the territorial population. Our results demonstrate the importance of early development and traditionally excluded life-history stages on long-term demographics. Although early life stages are difficult to observe, monitoring and conservation efforts may be improved by increasing studies on pre-territorial animals, control of Barred Owls, and conservation of forest structures important for Spotted Owls. This may contribute to increased juvenile survival and recruitment.

Leveraging projection models to evaluate long‐term dynamics of scrub mint translocations

AbstractTranslocated populations often show vigorous initial dynamics but eventually collapse. Modeling tools that incorporate basic ecological knowledge and allow for propagation of uncertainty can help identify potential risks. Here, we use Bayesian Integral Projection Models to estimate population growth rates (λs), associated elasticities, and extinction risks for the endangered Dicerandra christmanii. Our study compared natural populations in gaps (open areas) within the shrub matrix and roadsides, unoccupied gaps augmented with transplants, and introduced populations. These populations experienced different management, including prescribed fires, and had different initial conditions. Augmented gaps showed lower means but similar variation in λs as natural gaps. Yet, simulations indicate that augmentations can delay quasi‐extinction (40% of simulations) by 4 years at the population level. Introduced populations showed higher means and variation in λs as wild gaps. While vital rate estimates suggested initial translocation success, time to quasi‐extinction was projected to be 7 years shorter for introductions in gaps than for natural gap populations. These contradictory results are partially explained by the lack of established seed banks in introduced populations, which affected the response of early life stage transitions to a prescribed fire. This study highlights the need to account for site‐specific information in models of population dynamics, including initial conditions and management history, and especially cryptic life stages such as dormant seeds.

Efficient Discretization of Movement Kernels for Spatiotemporal Capture–Recapture

Spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models treat detection probability as a function of the distance between each animal and its notional activity centre. Open-population variants of these models (open SECR) are increasingly used to estimate the vital rates (survival and recruitment) of spatial populations subject to turnover between sampling times. If activity centres also move between sampling times then modelling the movement can reduce bias in estimates of vital rates. The usual movement model in open SECR is a random walk with step length governed by a probability kernel. Space is discretized in open SECR for computational convenience, and in some implementations this includes truncation of the probability kernel. Computations for the movement submodel are nevertheless very time-consuming owing to the repeated convolution steps and the need to manage boundary effects. A novel ‘sparse’ discretized kernel is proposed that greatly reduces fitting time. The sparse kernel was tested by simulation and applied to two datasets. Differences between models fitted using the sparse and full kernels were minor and unlikely to matter in practice. The sparse kernel extends the practical limits of the movement modelling in open SECR to greater dispersal distances and greater spatial resolution. Supplementary materials accompanying this paper appear online.

Subpopulation contributions to a breeding metapopulation of migratory arctic herbivores: survival, fecundity and asymmetric dispersal

Estimates of demographic parameters for lesser snow geeseAnser caerulescens caerulescenshave become critical to understand ecosystem change in northern Canada. Exponential increase in abundance has produced hyperdensities of these herbivores that can affect Arctic ecosystem stability through intense foraging. Increased and sustained marking of individually‐identifiable lesser snow geese over their breeding distribution now permits joint estimation of local vital rates and movement probabilities among widely scattered subpopulations. We used multi‐state models, including an unobservable state, with live captures from 5 subpopulations and dead recoveries to estimate annual probabilities of 1) survival, 2) capture, 3) reported mortality and 4) movement to other subpopulations, as well as derived estimates for probabilities of site fidelity and harvest. Our dataset included 144 719 captures of 139 177 lesser snow geese marked with metal legbands, from 2006 to 2015, of which 5542 were recaptured near breeding sites and 9709 were recovered dead in North America. The best model supported variation in survival by subpopulation and age, with additive effects of subpopulation, age and sex on movement probability. Male breeding dispersal was greater than by females, and juvenile geese were more likely to move than adults. Strong northeastward geographic asymmetry in the probability of breeding movement was consistent with an eastward shift in wintering distribution observed in hunter recoveries. Mean annual survival ranged from 0.79 to 0.94 for adults, and 0.16 to 0.47 for juvenile geese, with a strong negative relationship between regional adult and juvenile survival. Harvest probabilities were all ≤ 0.03 for adult and ≤ 0.06 for juvenile geese, suggesting little influence from direct anthropogenic exploitation. Metrics for subpopulation persistence and contributions of each to the metapopulation suggested declines in all but one subpopulation, and a declining Midcontinent population overall. Our study highlights the importance of all subpopulation demographic parameters as modulators of persistence at both local and range‐wide population dynamics.

Integrated population modeling identifies low duckling survival as a key driver of decline in a European population of the Mallard

Abstract Europe’s highest densities of breeding Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) are found in the Netherlands, but the breeding population there has declined by ~30% since the 1990s. The exact cause of this decline has remained unclear. Here, we used an integrated population model to jointly analyze Mallard population survey, nest survey, duckling survival, and band-recovery data. We used this approach to holistically estimate all relevant vital rates, including duckling survival rates for years for which no explicit data were available. Mean vital rate estimates were high for nest success (0.38 ± 0.01) and egg hatch rate (0.96 ± 0.001), but relatively low for clutch size (8.2 ± 0.05) compared to populations in other regions. Estimates for duckling survival rate for the three years for which explicit data were available were low (0.16–0.27) compared to historical observations, but were comparable to rates reported for other regions with declining populations. Finally, the mean survival rate was low for ducklings (0.18 ± 0.02), but high and stable for adults (0.71 ± 0.03). Population growth rate was only affected by variation in duckling survival, but since this is a predominantly latent state variable, this result should be interpreted with caution. However, it does strongly indicate that none of the other vital rates, all of which were supported by data, was able to sufficiently explain the population decline. Together with a comparison with historic vital rates, these findings point to a reduced duckling survival rate as the likely cause of the decline. Candidate drivers of reduced duckling survival are increased predation pressure and reduced food availability, but this requires future study. Integrated population modeling can provide valuable insights into population dynamics even when empirical data for a key parameter are partly missing.

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

AbstractWe investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females‐only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.

The Role of Satellite Telemetry Data in 21st Century Conservation of Polar Bears (Ursus maritimus)

Satellite telemetry (ST) has played a critical role in the management and conservation of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) over the last 50 years. ST data provide biological information relevant to subpopulation delineation, movements, habitat use, maternal denning, health, human-bear interactions, and accurate estimates of vital rates and abundance. Given that polar bears are distributed at low densities over vast and remote habitats, much of the information provided by ST data cannot be collected by other means. Obtaining ST data for polar bears requires chemical immobilization and application of a tracking device. Although immobilization has not been found to have negative effects beyond a several-day reduction in activity, over the last few decades opposition to immobilization and deployment of satellite-linked radio collars has resulted in a lack of current ST data in many of the 19 recognized polar bear subpopulations. Here, we review the uses of ST data for polar bears and evaluate its role in addressing 21st century conservation and management challenges, which include estimation of sustainable harvest rates, understanding the impacts of climate warming, delineating critical habitat, and assessing potential anthropogenic impacts from tourism, resource development and extraction. We found that in subpopulations where ST data have been consistently collected, information was available to estimate vital rates and subpopulation density, document the effects of sea-ice loss, and inform management related to subsistence harvest and regulatory requirements. In contrast, a lack of ST data in some subpopulations resulted in increased bias and uncertainty in ecological and demographic parameters, which has a range of negative consequences. As sea-ice loss due to climate warming continues, there is a greater need to monitor polar bear distribution, habitat use, abundance, and subpopulation connectivity. We conclude that continued collection of ST data will be critically important for polar bear management and conservation in the 21st century and that the benefits of immobilizing small numbers of individual polar bears in order to deploy ST devices significantly outweigh the risks.

Age-specific survival rates, causes of death, and allowable take of golden eagles in the western United States.

In the United States, the Bald and Golden Eagle Protection Act prohibits take of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) unless authorized by permit, and stipulates that all permitted take must be sustainable. Golden eagles are unintentionally killed in conjunction with many lawful activities (e.g., electrocution on power poles, collision with wind turbines). Managers who issue permits for incidental take of golden eagles must determine allowable take levels and manage permitted take accordingly. To aid managers in making these decisions in the western United States, we used an integrated population model to obtain estimates of golden eagle vital rates and population size, and then used those estimates in a prescribed take level (PTL) model to estimate the allowable take level. Estimated mean annual survival rates for golden eagles ranged from 0.70 (95% credible interval = 0.66–0.74) for first‐year birds to 0.90 (0.88–0.91) for adults. Models suggested a high proportion of adult female golden eagles attempted to breed and breeding pairs fledged a mean of 0.53 (0.39–0.72) young annually. Population size in the coterminous western United States has averaged ~31,800 individuals for several decades, with λ = 1.0 (0.96–1.05). The PTL model estimated a median allowable take limit of ~2227 (708–4182) individuals annually given a management objective of maintaining a stable population. We estimate that take averaged 2572 out of 4373 (59%) deaths annually, based on a representative sample of transmitter‐tagged golden eagles. For the subset of golden eagles that were recovered and a cause of death determined, anthropogenic mortality accounted for an average of 74% of deaths after their first year; leading forms of take over all age classes were shooting (~670 per year), collisions (~611), electrocutions (~506), and poisoning (~427). Although observed take overlapped the credible interval of our allowable take estimate and the population overall has been stable, our findings indicate that additional take, unless mitigated for, may not be sustainable. Our analysis demonstrates the utility of the joint application of integrated population and prescribed take level models to management of incidental take of a protected species.

Applying Multistate Mark-Recapture Models with State Uncertainty to Estimate Survival and Reproduction of Quail

Obtaining unbiased estimates of vital rates and understanding how vital rates change in response to environmental stimuli are a continual pursuit of ecologists. Multistate mark-recapture (MSMR) models provide a flexible framework for evaluating dependent vital rates in a comprehensive analysis. For example, a bird must remain alive during breeding season to initiate a nest (i.e., transition from a nonbreeding to a breeding state); thus, the probability that a bird initiates a nest is dependent on the probability that it is still alive. Traditional MSMR models allow only for the estimation of survival, detection, and state transition parameters and depend on the assumption that observers can correctly classify the true state of the animal without error. If the potential for state misclassification exists, incorporating parameters to estimate state uncertainty will reduce biases in the biological parameters of interest. I applied an MSMR model with state uncertainty (MSMR-SU) to estimate short-term survival, dispersal, and reproduction in translocated scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) reintroduced to a large landscape in West Texas, USA. I tested for the effects of release treatment, source population, age, release location, and year on demographic parameters (e.g., survival, dispersal, nest initiation, renesting rate, and nest success). I demonstrated a novel method of estimating nest initiation and renesting rate for avian species using a MSMR-SU model. MSMR-SU models provide a flexible and rigorous approach for evaluating effects of variables on demographic parameters for quail and other species.

Searching for the causes of decline in the Dutch population of European Turtle Doves (Streptopelia turtur)

European Turtle Doves Streptopelia turtur have experienced a sharp decline in population numbers over past decades. Much uncertainty exists about the main cause or causes. Several pressures have been suggested, but because they affect different stages of the life cycle of the Turtle Dove, it is difficult to compare their contributions to the population decline. Here we applied a full life cycle approach to study how different pressures may have resulted in the decline. This was achieved by combining a review of existing literature on possible threats, pressures and the vital rates they concerned, with the analysis of an age‐structured matrix model. The population model was parameterized using estimates from a mark–recapture analysis and supplemented with vital rate estimates from the literature. Comparison with a Life Table Response Experiment (LTRE) was used to determine whether the Turtle Dove literature focuses on those vital rates in which the most important changes have taken place over time. The population model projected a similar decline to that observed in population counts. The LTRE analysis showed that declines in the number of clutches (halved since the 1960s) and in juvenile survival (relative annual rate of change of –1.33% since the 1950s) contributed most to the decline in the projected population growth rate. Although these vital rates are often reported as possible causes of population decline, the reviewed studies often focused on specific reproductive stages, such as egg survival or nestling survival, which did not show a large temporal change. Thus, there is a partial mismatch between our modelling results and the focus in the literature. Juvenile survival is thought to be affected by hunting, degradation of wintering habitat and infection with Trichomonas gallinae, and loss of foraging habitat seems to affect the number of clutches. The focus of conservation measures should therefore be on these threats and pressures. The first steps have already been taken with the completion of the international single species action plan for the conservation of the Turtle Dove and the implementation of the first conservation measures on the breeding grounds.

Review and Synthesis of Estimated Vital Rates for Terrestrial Salamanders in the Family Plethodontidae

Population models depend on reliable estimates of vital rates, yet for many taxa, such estimates and how they vary in response to spatial or temporal environmental gradients are lacking. The goal of this review was to determine whether existing estimates of vital rates for temperate, direct-developing plethodontid salamanders (subfamily Plethodontinae) could be used to reasonably project values for populations or species where such estimates are lacking, or whether current estimates are biased in a manner that limits their utility. We synthesized current knowledge of stage-specific survival rates, age- and size-at-maturity at first clutch, and clutch frequency. We tested for expected correlations among published vital rates (e.g., age at maturity and survival) and between vital rates and factors such as body size or latitude. We used matrix projection models to judge whether published estimates were reasonably possible for stable salamander populations. The largest number of published vital rates were for clutch size, clutch frequency (proportion of females with clutches), size at maturity or first clutch, and age at maturity or first clutch, though the latter vital rate is primarily inferred from size distribution and growth rate data. Among these vital rates, we found expected correlations with body size and latitude suggesting these rates were reasonable and somewhat predictable among species or populations. In contrast, there were few estimates of egg hatch rate or juvenile or adult survival. Hatch and survival rate estimates were widely variable; estimates seldom included measures of uncertainty, but when uncertainty measurements were included, they were generally high. Based on projection models, few survival estimates were likely unbiased or realistic for stable populations given other salamander vital rates. Additionally, few studies quantified how vital rates vary with spatial or temporal environmental gradients. We outline the key knowledge gaps that limit basic demographic modeling of these remarkably common, influential, and otherwise well-studied salamanders, and make recommendations for future research efforts.

Vital rate estimates for the common eider Somateria mollissima, a data‐rich exemplar of the seaduck tribe

Abstract This database collates vital rate estimates for the common eider (Somateria mollissima), providing a complete demographic parameterization for this slow life‐history species. Monitored across its circumpolar range, the common eider represents a data‐rich exemplar species for the less‐studied seaducks, many of which are under threat. The database contains estimates of the following vital rates: first‐year survival; second‐year survival; adult annual survival; first breeding (both age‐specific recruitment probability, and breeding propensity across potential recruitment ages); breeding propensity of established female breeders; clutch size; hatching success; and fledging success. These estimates are drawn from 134 studies, across the scientific and grey literature, including three previously inaccessible datasets on clutch size that were contributed in response to a call for data through the IUCN Species Survival Commission's Duck Specialist Group. Although clutch size has been much studied, the contributed datasets have enhanced coverage of studies reported in non‐English languages, which were otherwise only represented when cited in English‐language publications. Breeding propensity has been little studied, perhaps because adult females are often assumed to attempt breeding every year; we obtained a mean breeding propensity of 0.72. Our synthesis highlights the following gaps in data availability: juvenile and male survival; population change; and studies from Russia (at least accessible in English). The database is intended to serve population modellers and scientists involved in the policy and practice of seaduck conservation and management.

Report of the NAMMCO-ICES Workshop on Seal Modelling (WKSEALS 2020)

To support sustainable management of apex predator populations, it is important to estimate population size and understand the drivers of population trends to anticipate the consequences of human decisions. Robust population models are needed, which must be based on realistic biological principles and validated with the best available data. A team of international experts reviewed age-structured models of North Atlantic pinniped populations, including Grey seal (Halichoerus grypus), Harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus), and Hooded seal (Cystophora cristata). Statistical methods used to fit such models to data were compared and contrasted. Differences in biological assumptions and model equations were driven by the data available from separate studies, including observation methodology and pre-processing. Counts of pups during the breeding season were used in all models, with additional counts of adults and juveniles available in some. The regularity and frequency of data collection, including survey counts and vital rate estimates, varied. Important differences between the models concerned the nature and causes of variation in vital rates (age-dependent survival and fecundity). Parameterisation of age at maturity was detailed and time-dependent in some models and simplified in others. Methods for estimation of model parameters were reviewed and compared. They included Bayesian and maximum likelihood (ML) approaches, implemented via bespoke coding in C, C++, TMB or JAGS. Comparative model runs suggested that as expected, ML-based implementations were rapid and computationally efficient, while Bayesian approaches, which used MCMC or sequential importance sampling, required longer for inference. For grey seal populations in the Netherlands, where preliminary ML-based TMB results were compared with the outputs of a Bayesian JAGS implementation, some differences in parameter estimates were apparent. For these seal populations, further investigations are recommended to explore differences that might result from the modelling framework and model-fitting methodology, and their importance for inference and management advice. The group recommended building on the success of this workshop via continued collaboration with ICES and NAMMCO assessment groups, as well as other experts in the marine mammal modelling community. Specifically, for Northeast Atlantic harp and hooded seal populations, the workshop represents the initial step towards a full ICES benchmark process aimed at revising and evaluating new assessment models.

Integrating counts, telemetry, and non‐invasive DNA data to improve demographic monitoring of an endangered species

AbstractPopulation monitoring can take many different forms, and monitoring elusive and endangered species frequently involves a variety of sparse data from different sources. Small populations are often hard to sample precisely and without bias, so when estimates of vital rates like survival or recruitment point to conflicting population trends, it can be hard to determine which is more correct. Furthermore, data can be extremely hard to collect on small populations and it can be helpful to find a way to use all available hard‐won data. To address these issues, we developed an integrated population model (IPM) using all available data to estimate vital rates and abundance for a case study of an endangered woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) population. This IPM allowed us to incorporate data from juvenile recruitment surveys, telemetry‐based survival, aerial population counts and mark–resight data, and non‐invasive capture–recapture DNA data to better understand population status and trend. We estimated survival, abundance, and recruitment of four age classes of male and female caribou: young, juveniles, subadults, and adults. The four‐age class structure of the IPM allowed us to estimate recruitment from reproductive‐aged female caribou alone, even though it can be difficult to distinguish age classes—and even sexes—in the field. As part of our IPM, we developed a novel mixture model to break apart data from different age classes when age is unobservable, as it typically is from non‐invasive DNA samples. This helped us decrease bias in juvenile and adult survival estimates from scat data, which was important to our understanding of the population dynamics. Overall, our integrated model provided more precise estimates of population trends than any one method (e.g., telemetry or non‐invasive DNA) alone. This IPM provides a useful, flexible tool for biologists to monitor populations and provides a valuable example of the benefits of integrated population modeling approaches for endangered species management and recovery.

Phenology and temperature are the main drivers shaping the detection probability of the common wall lizard

Abstract Measuring the abundance of organisms is essential to provide information to ecology and biodiversity conservation. Hardly ever, the probability of detecting an animal during a survey is near one. Overlooking this observational process can lead to biased estimates of population size and vital rates. In this study, through Bayesian modeling, I evaluated the effects of temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, and phenology in determining changes in the detection probability of the common wall lizard, for which studies on the factors determining detection probability are currently not available. Additionally, I tested for two possible interactions: date-temperature and date-humidity, in order to assess if the relationships of these variables with detection probability vary through the sampling season. Detection probability was highest earlier in the season (April) and between 24 and 28 degrees. Rainfall during the survey showed a negative effect on detection probability. In contrast, cumulative precipitation in the 24 hours before the survey showed a positive relationship, indicating that lizards are easier to detect in surveys after rainy days. Furthermore, date and temperature showed a positive interaction, indicating that the relationship between detectability and temperature changed over the sampling season. Date and humidity showed a negative interaction: late in the sampling season, detectability was higher with lower humidity, however, this relationship was not found in the early season. Future studies can consider multiple sites to evaluate the extent of variation in the drivers of detection probability and to assess the factors related to abundance.