Synergistic impact of the green economy and financial technologies on environmental sustainability in the United States

Employment, human capital, and economic complexity as drivers of sustainable growth: A gender-specific analysis

Climate change and food policy interventions: Implications for the yield response of arable crops in Nigeria

Temperature changes and agricultural performance linkage: Evidence from Africa

South Africa has faced consistently elevated unemployment levels despite numerous macroeconomic reforms, prompting worries regarding the effectiveness of key economic indicators in promoting labour absorption. This study analyses the influence of economic growth (GDP), inflation (CPI), and foreign direct investment (FDI) on unemployment in South Africa, employing quarterly data from the first quarter of 2010 to the fourth quarter of 2023. The analysis utilises a quantitative design, implementing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test, the Johansen cointegration method, and a Vector Error Correction Model to evaluate the long- and short-term dynamics among the variables. The findings indicate that all variables are integrated of order one and possess a long-term equilibrium connection. Long-term estimates demonstrate substantial negative correlations, suggesting that increased GDP, CPI, and FDI are associated with a decrease in unemployment over time. In the near term, GDP elevates unemployment, indicating the prevalence of capital-intensive growth, whereas FDI persistently reduces unemployment and CPI remains negligible. These findings underscore the structural characteristics of unemployment in South Africa and the constraints of macroeconomic factors in facilitating short-term labour absorption. The report emphasises the significance of policies that promote labour-absorbing growth, improve the investment environment, and prioritise skills development to tackle ongoing unemployment.The report advocates for prioritising labour-intensive growth methods, enhancing the investment environment, and fortifying skills development systems to improve employment outcomes. These initiatives are essential for tackling persistent unemployment and fostering inclusive and sustainable economic growth.

This study examined the long- and short-term relationships between remittance, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation and interest rates in Nepal. This study used time-series data from 2003 to 2024 from the world bank and Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB). The study applied econometric techniques including the Phillips-Perron unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyse the dynamics among the variables. The Johansen cointegration test indicated three long-run cointegration relationships among the variables. The VECM shows that the GDP, inflation and interest rates in the long run adjust significantly to restore equilibrium when deviations occur. This might suggest a contractionary process of the economy where policies aimed at controlling inflation or excess money supply might restrain the GDP. Meanwhile, remittances tend to increase in response to economic downturns, acting as a buffer for the economy. Short-run analysis showed that past values of GDP, inflation and interest rates strongly influence their current behaviour. This might suggest structural rigidity or gradual policy transmission. Meanwhile, remittance inflow reacts positively to interest rate and negatively to inflation. This means maintaining a stable interest rate and low inflation can ensure sustained remittance flow. The study concludes that maintaining stable interest rates and low inflation ensures sustainable remittance inflows and overall macroeconomic stability in Nepal. It is recommended that policymakers channel remittance into productive sectors to enhance economic growth while minimising inflationary pressures.

This study aims to identify the short- and long-run macroeconomic determinants of shipping demand in Türkiye and examine whether structural breaks alter these relationships. Monthly data spanning January 2012 to June 2025 are analyzed using an autoregressive distributed lag model and an error correction model. In addition, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, Zivot-Andrews, and Bai-Perron tests were incorporated to identify any structural breaks and assess stationarity. Based on the analysis of empirical results, the Industrial Production Index was determined to be the most significant long-run variable in predicting long-term shipping demand. Conversely, there is a significant negative impact of crude oil prices on shipping activity. The Baltic Dry Index and Global Economic Policy Uncertainty were both determined to be insignificant in predicting long-term shipping demand. However, they each had an immediate negative impact on shipping demand in the short run, exhibiting lagged response effects. The model showed that stable long-run equilibrium exists, which indicates that the model accommodates relatively rapid adjustments. There was evidence of a regime shift occurring in March 2019, which indicates a structural break in the market. This study provides empirical evidence related to maritime policy development through macroeconomic shifts to enhance the understanding of how fluctuations in the macroeconomy affect.

Aerosolized colistin has been increasingly used to treat multidrug-resistant gram-negative infections, particularly in the intensive care unit (ICU), as an alternative to intravenous colistin, which is limited by nephrotoxicity and poor pulmonary penetration. Systemic colistin use has been linked to the emergence of resistance, but the impact of inhaled colistin on resistance development remains unclear. We conducted a time-series analysis using monthly data from April 2014 to December 2023 in the ICUs of a 2700-bed tertiary-care hospital comprising 108 adult ICU beds. Monthly antibiotic use and the incidence of colistin-resistant Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Acinetobacter baumannii from respiratory specimens were analysed using vector autoregressive (VAR) or vector error correction models (VECMs), depending on the presence of stationarity and cointegration. In bivariate VAR analyses, aerosolized colistin use was positively associated with subsequent increases in colistin-resistant K. pneumoniae and A. baumannii, with significant effects observed across multiple lags. In multivariate VAR models including other antibiotic classes, the temporal association persisted for K. pneumoniae. Sensitivity analyses using VECM also showed significant associations for E. coli, K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa and A. baumannii. In an additional analysis of non-respiratory specimens, aerosolized colistin was also significantly associated with colistin-resistant A. baumannii. Aerosolized colistin use was temporally associated with increased resistance in major gram-negative pathogens, particularly K. pneumoniae and A. baumannii. These findings highlight the need for cautious use of inhaled colistin and support its inclusion in targeted antimicrobial stewardship efforts, given its potential contribution to the emergence of resistance.

In this study, we measure the real output effect of the appreciation in the value of US dollar measured by US dollar index (USDI). Our dependent variable is percentage change in US real GDP and the independent variable is percentage change in US dollar index. We applied the vector error correction model on those variables using US data from 1974 to 2019. We found that any increase in US dollar index would negatively affect US real GDP with a one-period lag. So, we concluded that a strong dollar would have a negative impact on US economy.

Coffee-price volatility is a recurrent external shock for Peru’s small open economy, with potentially uneven consequences across sectors. This study evaluates whether global coffee prices and domestic macro-agricultural indicators share stable long-run equilibria and quantifies the transmission of coffee-price shocks to the terms of trade, nominal exchange rate, consumer prices, agricultural GDP, and total GDP. Using a multivariate vector error-correction model identified via Johansen cointegration, and controlling for major global disruptions and ENSO-related seasonality, we trace dynamic effects through impulse-response analysis. The results indicate economically meaningful cointegration, implying that external prices and domestic aggregates are linked by long-run restrictions. A positive coffee-price shock produces heterogeneous real effects: the response of aggregate GDP is modest and short-lived, while agricultural GDP reacts more strongly and persistently. The shock propagates mainly through external and nominal channels—especially the exchange rate and terms of trade—whereas consumer-price pass-through is present but comparatively moderate. These findings contribute to the commodity-shock literature by providing sector-sensitive evidence for an agricultural export shock and by clarifying the mechanisms through which coffee-price movements propagate to domestic activity and prices in a small open agricultural economy.

The crypto-assets markets are notoriously volatile and risky. In this context, market-neutral type strategies, such as pair-trading, may be relevant. In this paper, we focus on the implementation of pair-trading strategies with a wide range of crypto-assets over periods between August 2021 and January 2024. To carry out this study, we combine econometric and machine learning techniques which differ from those used in existing literature on the subject. By using cointegration tests and error correction models, we identify a sample of 229 pairs suitable for pair-trading strategies. Using a genetic algorithm and pair clustering, we test four strategies using standard and optimized thresholds. The results highlight the existence of profitable cointegrating relationships, and, therefore, short-term market inefficiencies in the crypto-assets market. Indeed, though still risky, the best strategy identified in terms of risk-return trade-off, with a median maxdrawdown of 15.29%, delivers an average annual Sharpe ratio per pair of 0.69 over the out-of-sample period.

This study examines oil revenue volatility and Nigeria’s fiscal stability: evidence from budget performance, with particular emphasis on oil rents as a percentage of GDP, oil price volatility, fuel pump price volatility, and oil exports. Using annual time-series data covering the period 1985 to 2024, the study employs the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test to examine the stationarity properties of the variables, the Johansen cointegration test to determine the existence of long-run relationships, and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to analyze both short-run dynamics and long-run adjustments. The VECM results show that oil price volatility has the strongest positive and statistically significant effect on government debt to GDP, indicating that fluctuations in global oil prices significantly increase fiscal instability in the short run. Oil rents also exhibit a positive and significant effect, implying that higher dependence on oil revenue increases vulnerability to fiscal shocks. Fuel pump price volatility shows a positive but weakly significant effect, while oil exports have a negative relationship with government debt to GDP, suggesting a mild stabilizing effect on fiscal performance. The error correction term is negative and highly significant (-0.703), indicating that approximately 70% of short-run deviations from long-run equilibrium are corrected within one year, reflecting a relatively fast adjustment process. The study concludes that oil revenue volatility is a major determinant of fiscal instability and weak budget performance in Nigeria. Policy recommendations emphasize the need for revenue diversification, stronger fiscal stabilization mechanisms, improved oil export efficiency, and disciplined medium-term fiscal planning to reduce vulnerability to oil market shocks.

Purpose — This study examines how global price, logistics, and exchange-rate channels jointly determine Indonesia’s coal export performance, and whether China’s manufacturing demand adds independent explanatory power. Method — Using monthly data (2015–2025), a two-stage framework is applied: a VECM to identify long-run equilibrium relationships, followed by a conditional error-correction model with Newey–West inference to assess short-run export dynamics and the role of China PMI proxies. Findings — Two long-run equilibria link exports with prices and exchange rates, and logistics with exchange rates. In the short run, only logistics (BDI) and exchange-rate changes significantly drive exports, with logistics shocks dominating overall dynamics. China PMI proxies are insignificant, suggesting their effects are absorbed by structural channels. Implications — Export performance is highly sensitive to logistics conditions, highlighting the importance of supply-chain efficiency and policy stability over reliance on commodity price movements. Originality — The study provides a unified dynamic framework linking price, logistics, and currency channels while re-evaluating the role of China demand at monthly frequency.

Purpose — This study examines how global price, logistics, and exchange-rate channels jointly determine Indonesia’s coal export performance, and whether China’s manufacturing demand adds independent explanatory power. Method — Using monthly data (2015–2025), a two-stage framework is applied: a VECM to identify long-run equilibrium relationships, followed by a conditional error-correction model with Newey–West inference to assess short-run export dynamics and the role of China PMI proxies. Findings — Two long-run equilibria link exports with prices and exchange rates, and logistics with exchange rates. In the short run, only logistics (BDI) and exchange-rate changes significantly drive exports, with logistics shocks dominating overall dynamics. China PMI proxies are insignificant, suggesting their effects are absorbed by structural channels. Implications — Export performance is highly sensitive to logistics conditions, highlighting the importance of supply-chain efficiency and policy stability over reliance on commodity price movements. Originality — The study provides a unified dynamic framework linking price, logistics, and currency channels while re-evaluating the role of China demand at monthly frequency.

This study examines the dynamic interlinkages among energy, food, and metal commodity markets under geopolitical tensions using daily data from January 2022 to July 2025. The empirical framework integrates correlation analysis, Granger causality tests, and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to capture both short- and long-run transmission mechanisms, with robustness assessed through impulse response functions, forecast error variance decomposition, and a Diebold–Yilmaz connectedness analysis across three structurally distinct geopolitical event windows. The results reveal asymmetric and sector-specific transmission patterns in which geopolitical risk significantly influences key commodity prices—particularly WTI crude oil, wheat, copper, and aluminium—confirming its role as a primary external shock driver. WTI emerges as the dominant transmitter of shocks, while industrial metals exhibit strong internal connectedness. Critically, gold’s role proves to be conditional and context-dependent: within an integrated energy–food–metal network under geopolitical stress, it functions primarily as a net receiver and passive absorber of macroeconomic uncertainty rather than as a systemic transmitter, a finding that complements, rather than contradicts, its established safe-haven role in financial asset pricing frameworks. These findings are subject to limitations, including reliance on futures price data and a linear VECM framework that may not fully capture nonlinear or regime-dependent dynamics.

This study investigates the determinants of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar over the 2010–2024 period, focusing on inflation, money supply, foreign exchange reserves, trade balance, global oil prices, global gold prices, and a COVID-19 dummy variable. The analysis employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), complemented by the Impulse Response Function (IRF) and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD). The short-run results indicate that domestic macroeconomic variables, global commodity prices, and the COVID-19 dummy do not have a statistically significant effect on the exchange rate, suggesting that short-term movements are driven primarily by market adjustment and policy stabilization mechanisms. However, the error correction term is negative and statistically significant, and the lagged exchange rate is also significant, indicating that deviations from long-run equilibrium are gradually corrected over time. In the long run, inflation and money supply exert a negative effect on the exchange rate, whereas the trade balance and global oil prices have a positive effect. By contrast, foreign exchange reserves and global gold prices are not statistically significant, implying that these variables play a stabilizing rather than a determining role in exchange rate movements. The IRF results show that the exchange rate responds gradually and converges following macroeconomic shocks, while the FEVD results indicate that long-run exchange rate fluctuations are influenced mainly by trade balance and oil price shocks, although their relative contributions remain limited.

This study provides strong evidence on the interconnected linking access to electricity (AE), agriculture (AGR), industrialization (IND), financial development (FD), trade openness (TO), and government effectiveness (GE) on economic growth over the period 2000 to 2024. Drawing on a panel of Central African nations and applying both the Panel Vector Error Correction Model (ECM) and the System GMM methodology, the VECM results reveal a speed of adjustment and confirm the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium among GDP, AE, AGR, IND, FD, TO, and GE, as demonstrated by the negative and statistically significant error correction terms at the 1% level across all equations. Additionally, access to electricity contributes to GDP and is positively associated with the 5% significance level. Agriculture and industrialization contribute strongly to GDP at the 1% significance level; thus, agriculture is still a strong base of growth, and industrialization is the strongest contributor to structural transformation and value addition. Financial development continually demonstrates a positive relationship with GDP at the 1% significance level. Government’s effectiveness demonstrates a positive and significant contribution to GDP at the 1% significance level. Conversely, trade openness does not appear to have an impact on GDP as evidenced by a lack of statistically significant results; thus, Middle African countries continue to experience structural limitations and remain less competitive and disconnected from the global value chain. Therefore, System GMM estimates confirm the VECM results and that growth of Middle African Countries resulted from multiple interrelated factors rather than a single driver.

Stagflation continues to pose a significant macroeconomic issue in developing economies, as it amalgamates persistent inflation, subpar labour market performance, and macroeconomic instability, hence limiting policy efficacy and long-term growth. This study investigates the effects of stagflation on key macroeconomic indicators in Zambia, namely inflation rates, labour market dynamics, the central bank's policy rate, and the exchange rate. The study applies a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) using annual time-series data from 1964 to 2024, guided by unit-root and Johansen cointegration tests, to analyse short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium correlations among the variables examined. The findings indicate that Zambian inflation exhibits strong persistence, with an insignificant error-correction term (ECT = − 0.304, p = 0.927) showing limited short-run adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, while the significantly negative lagged inflation coefficient (∆CPIt-1 = − 0.412, p = 0.003) confirms partial but constrained self-correction; conversely, labor-market disparities adjust slowly, suggesting structural inflexibilities within the Zambian economy.Moreover, the results reveal that the central bank's policy rate responds significantly to systemic instability and debt-related pressures, whereas exchange-rate fluctuations are significantly affected by persistent imbalances and constraints on external financing. Within this framework, inflation, labor market difficulties, shifts in monetary policy, and exchange rate fluctuations are interconnected, each exacerbating the others. Therefore, this research underscores the crucial need for a cohesive policy approach to ensure Zambia's long-term economic stability.The proposed strategy demands a holistic methodology, encompassing monetary, fiscal, and structural policies. This integrated approach is indispensable, given that inflation, debt, labor market challenges, and exchange rate volatility are not discrete issues; instead, they are interconnected occurrences that necessitate a cohesive policy intervention.

This paper investigates the long-run relationship and short-run price dynamics between the German electricity and natural gas markets to assess market efficiency, with a focus on the impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Employing Johansen cointegration tests and a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on weekly data from 2018 to 2025, we find a stable long-run equilibrium between the two prices. The results show that while the electricity market exhibits a self-correcting mechanism, indicating a certain degree of efficiency, this efficiency significantly deteriorated following the conflict’s outbreak. The natural gas market lost its error-correction capability post-conflict, and momentum effects became pronounced, suggesting impaired price discovery and weakened market efficiency under severe geopolitical stress. The findings provide empirical evidence supporting the reform of marginal pricing models in Europe to enhance resilience against geopolitical shocks.

Sea bass and sea bream dominate marine aquaculture production in Türkiye and play a central role in domestic and export markets. Reliable price expectations are therefore essential for producers and traders. This study examines monthly wholesale prices in Türkiye for the period 2016–2025 and evaluates alternative forecasting approaches. Given that both prices are integrated of order one, the Johansen test is applied to assess cointegration. A vector error correction model (VECM) and a robust variant are estimated. Forecast performance is evaluated through rolling-origin backtesting and compared with exponential smoothing, seasonal ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a seasonal naïve benchmark using root mean squared error, mean absolute error, mean squared error and mean absolute percentage error. The results show a single cointegrating relationship between sea bass and sea bream prices. Short-run adjustments are asymmetric, with sea bass responding more strongly to disequilibria. In out-of-sample forecasts, VECM-based models produce the lowest error measures. Univariate models perform moderately well, while XGBoost and the seasonal naïve approach yield higher errors. The findings indicate that incorporating long-run equilibrium improves forecast accuracy in integrated seafood markets. Price interdependence between the two species should be considered in applied forecasting and market analysis.