Equilibrium Relationship Research Articles

The Effect of Food Price Fluctuations on the Poverty Rate in Aceh Province, Indonesia

The government continues to address poverty through various policies including food security initiatives, but the poverty rate in Aceh is still relatively high when compared to other provinces in Indonesia. Given this urgency, this study aims to estimate the short-term and long-term effects of food prices on poverty rates in Aceh using an Error Correction Model (ECM) supplemented by observations of long-term equilibrium or cointegration relationships. The secondary data used is the period 2014Q1 - 2022Q4. The estimation results show that in the short and long run, food prices have a significant effect and are positively related to the poverty rate in Aceh. The imbalance between the actual poverty rate and the desired poverty rate will be adjusted over 3.32 quarters. Therefore, the Aceh Government's measures and policies in alleviating poverty need to be revisited by consistently improving the quality of human resources, quantity, and sustainability of agricultural production.

Study on Calculation Method of Bending Performance of Concrete Sandwich Composite Slab.

In order to explore the flexural behavior of a concrete sandwich panel under concentrated boundary conditions, based on Kirachhoff's elastic thin plate theory in this paper, the geometric deformation, physical conditions, and equilibrium relationship of a sandwich panel are deduced by constructing the layered analysis model of the sandwich panel, the basic differential equation of the flexural deformation of the concrete sandwich thin plate is obtained, and the mathematical expression of the internal force and displacement under the boundary condition of concentrated support is given. Combined with an engineering example, the proposed calculation method is verified. The results show that, in the arrangement of reliable connectors for concrete sandwich panels, the concrete wythes bear the load while the contribution of the core layer to the bending capacity of the structure can be ignored. When subjected to a laterally distributed load, the sandwich panel mainly experiences out-of-plane bending deformation, and the bending normal stress in the concrete panel layer shows a linear non-uniform distribution along the thickness direction of the panel. The bending deformation performance and bearing efficiency of a concrete sandwich slab with the change in concentrated support position have significant effects, and the load transfer efficiency can be improved by optimizing the arrangement of supports. Except for small local areas near the supports, the bending stress distribution and deformation behavior of the concrete sandwich panel can be accurately analyzed by the calculation method established in this paper.

Impact of oil price, economic globalization, and inflation on economic output: Evidence from Latin American oil-producing countries using the quantile-on-quantile approach

This research examines the impact of oil prices, economic globalization, and inflation on the economic output in oil-producing countries in Latin America. We employ advanced time series techniques to achieve precision in findings and reliability of policy inferences. We use cointegration techniques with and without structural breaks because oil prices are highly volatile, and the economies analyzed are unstable in the face of political and social changes. Additionally, we performed a sensitivity analysis using standard quantile and the newly developed quantile-on-quantile regressions to measure the impacts of the covariates on real per capita output. Finally, we use causality Fourier techniques to identify the direction of causal relationships between the series. We found that the oil price, economic globalization, inflation, and output have a long-term equilibrium relationship in the presence of structural breaks. Likewise, quantile models show that the impacts of inflation, economic globalization, and oil prices on economic output are extensively non-linear across the quantile distribution. We found a negative connection between inflation and economic output in the surveyed territories. We propose that those responsible for energy policy in the countries studied should rethink crude oil policies to maximize the benefits of oil exploitation under stagnant globalization and growing inflation.

The Adiabatic 1D Kinetic Equilibrium of the Electron Diffusion Region During Anti‐Parallel Magnetic Reconnection

AbstractAn earlier model of the electron distribution function accounts for the pressure anisotropy that develops in the inflow regions during anti‐parallel magnetic reconnection. However, the model is not applicable to the electron diffusion region (EDR), where the electron magnetic moments break as an adiabatic invariant. The earlier model is here generalized through the use of the current‐sheet adiabatic invariant of a 1D current layer, to become applicable also to the EDR. The new generalized model reproduces the main features of the EDR and its vicinity observed in a fully kinetic simulation, formally proving the 1D equilibrium relationship between the upstream electron pressure anisotropy and the EDR electron jets.

Barocaloric effect in a Gay-Berne liquid crystal.

A coarse-grained molecular Monte Carlo simulation of the barocaloric effect in a model Gay-Berne liquid crystal is presented, following the so-called indirect approach wherein the caloric response is obtained from thermodynamic arguments applied to the simulated equilibrium relation between pressure, density, and temperature. From simulation, the magnitude of the effect across the isotropic-nematic and nematic-smectic phase transitions is estimated, together with the heat exchanged outside these transitions, in order to assess its potential for novel cooling and heat pumping applications. Under adiabatic conditions, pressure-induced phase transitions are predicted to result in a temperature variation of a few degrees Kelvin. As a by-product of the simulation, an approximate partial phase diagram of the Gay-Berne fluid under study is also obtained.

Deep reinforcement learning for pairs trading: Evidence from China black series futures

Pair trading is one of the main methods of statistical arbitrage, mainly by taking advantage of the temporary price anomalies between related financial products with long-term equilibrium relationships to obtain arbitrage opportunities. In this paper, based on the co-integration method for the selection of allotment, the deep reinforcement learning method is integrated. The deep reinforcement learning method establishes an autonomous learning model and develops paired trading rules under different cycles. At the same time, the deep neural network model is used to implement the learning and training algorithm. This paper uses the data of Shanghai Commodity Exchange and Dalian Commodity Exchange on black futures, and the period is from January 2, 2014 to December 31, 2021. Three different periods were set for five models, namely simple threshold method (ST), simple threshold method based on pairwise cointegration (CA-ST), simple threshold method based on tripartite Cointegration (CA-ST-ALL), deep reinforcement learning method (DRL), and Deep reinforcement learning method based on pairwise cointegration (CA-DRL), and economic indicators were compared. The final results show that, combining the results of the three time periods, the deep reinforcement learning method based on pairwise cointegration performs better regarding return and risk control, validating the feasibility of deep reinforcement learning in China's future market.

Boundary element method for bending-extension coupling shear deformable laminated composite plates with multiple stiffeners

In general, the laminated composite plates and stiffeners may exhibit the bending-extension coupling effect with the transverse shear deformations significantly induced. In this paper, for the first time we develop the associated boundary element method (BEM) for bending-extension coupling shear deformable laminated composite plates with multiple beams attached as stiffeners. Based upon the first order shear deformation theory, the individual boundary integral equations (BIEs) for plates and stiffeners are obtained from their corresponding matrix-form basic equations. To account for perfect bonding conditions between plate and stiffeners, we establish displacement continuity and interaction load equilibrium relations at their interfaces. To calculate the domain integrals related to unknown interaction loads, we discretize each stiffener into a series of cells using quadratic interpolation. By collecting the individual BIEs for plates and stiffeners and employing the continuity and equilibrium relations at the interfaces, we construct the entire system of linear equations to solve for all the unknown nodal quantities. Additionally, the complete solutions at the plate boundary, at internal points or along a stiffener are provided. The correctness of our present BEM formulation is verified through two representative examples by comparison with the commercial finite element software ANSYS. The numerical results demonstrate that our BEM formulation surpasses the conventional finite element method and is highly desirable for general stiffened laminated plates with bending-extension coupling and transverse shear deformations.

Study on the relationship between informatization and marine eco-efficiency in China–taking 11 coastal provinces as examples

This article focuses on 11 coastal provinces in China and selects relevant data from 2008 to 2021. The improved entropy method is used to calculate the level of informationization development in each province. The Malmquist index is used to calculate the marine ecological efficiency of each province. The panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model is established to study the dynamic relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency. The results show that: (1) There is a long-term equilibrium relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency, and informationization is a Granger cause of marine ecological efficiency at the 5% significance level. (2) Overall, informationization has a promoting effect on marine ecological efficiency, but with a certain lag; the improvement of marine ecological efficiency also benefits the development of informationization. (3) There is a bidirectional relationship between informationization and marine ecological efficiency, and informationization has become the main influencing factor of marine ecological efficiency.

Effect of Carbon Footprint on Agricultural Productivity in Nigeria: An Empirical Analysis

This study examines the relationship between carbon footprint (CFP) components and agricultural productivity in Nigeria, a critical area of investigation given the country's reliance on agriculture for economic stability, food security, and employment. Using time series data from 1990 to 2020, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the World Bank, this study analyzes the effect of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions on agricultural output. Employing Robust Least Square (RLS) regression and the Error Correction Model (ECM), the study finds that CO2 and CH4 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity, with 1% increases in CO2 and CH4 emissions leading to approximate decreases in agricultural output by 2% and 3%, respectively. Conversely, a 1% increase in N2O emissions correlates with an 8% increase in agricultural output, attributed to the use of nitrogenbased fertilizers. The results confirm the presence of long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables, with approximately 32% of the previous year's disequilibrium corrected annually. The study's findings align with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis, suggesting that Nigeria is in the early stages of economic growth where environmental degradation is pronounced. These insights underscore the need for sustainable agricultural practices and effective carbon emission mitigation strategies to enhance food security and support economic growth in Nigeria.

An Estimation of Causal Interaction Between Monetary and Fiscal Stabilization Policies on Economic Growth in Nigeria

This study was structured to examine the causal relationship between monetary and fiscal stabilization policies on economic growth in Nigeria. Data employed for econometric analysis were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2022. The analytical methodology adopted was the Granger Causal technique. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test was employed to examine the stationary properties of the time series at a 5 per cent level. None of the series was stationary at a level, which validated the hypothesis of non-stationarity. Stationarity was attained after the first and second differencing respectively at a 0.05 level of significance. A cointegration test was also performed to confirm the existence or otherwise of a long-run equilibrium relationship at 0.05 level. The results indicate long-run equilibrium relationships among the variables. The results of Granger Causality signify that both monetary and fiscal policies are potent stabilization instruments in gauging the health of the Nigerian economy to guarantee that the economy is prodded onto a steady long-run growth path. Therefore, it is recommended that growth in the money supply should be consciously backed up with gold and other foreign hard currencies to guarantee price stability, and that, the Federal Government should establish a coordinating agency to synchronize conflicting monetary and fiscal policies and implementation that are inimical to the attainment of the macroeconomic goal of economic stabilization and growth.

Determinants of Bond Market Development in Nigeria

Capital market is of paramount importance in financing the activities of public and private sectors in both developed and developing economies. Consequently, this research analyzed the long run equilibrium relationships between bond market development (BMD) and a set of fiscal, macroeconomic and financial variables in Nigeria using Granger causality test and Johansen cointegration model. The findings reveal the importance of macroeconomic and financial variables in facilitating the development of Nigeria’s bond market. The study recommended that policy makers should ensure macroeconomic stability and financial soundness in order to develop bond market in the country.

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: 1981-2019 (ARDL MODEL)

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape.

A finite element for nonlinear three-dimensional Kirchhoff rods

This paper presents the formulation of a finite element method for nonlinear Kirchhoff rods (i.e. without transverse shear strain) in the general three-dimensional setting defined by a Cosserat director treatment of the cross sections attached to the rod's axis. The new element is based on a G1 interpolation of the rod's geometry in terms of Hermite shape functions of the rod's axis (including its tangent defining the tangential director), while the transversal directors defining the different bending and torsional responses of the rod consider a Lagrangian interpolation of the section directors. This direct interpolation of the directors, as opposed of underlying rotation vectors, assures the objectivity of the proposed formulation. In fact, the invariance properties of the resulting finite element are analyzed in detail, assuring the correct resolution of the local fundamental equilibrium relations between forces and moments, hence avoiding the so-called “self-straining” associated to separate treatments of the rod's geometry and its kinematics. Several representative numerical simulations are presented illustrating these properties as well as the appropriateness of the proposed formulation for the analysis of thin rods undergoing large finite deformations in the three-dimensional range.

Dynamic Analysis of the Growth of Building Area and the Immigrant Population in Shanghai based on the PVAR Model

Since the reform and opening up more than 30 years ago, Shanghai has witnessed rapid development of economic and continuous acceleration of urbanization and continuous growth of building area. However, the number of migrants has decreased over the same period, which is inconsistent with previous studies that show that population affects land demand and floor space. In this paper, panel data of each district of Shanghai from 2014 to 2018 are selected and the panel vector autoregression model (PVAR model) is constructed to analyze the dynamic relationship between the building area growth of each district of Shanghai, the immigrant population and the economic growth. The results show that : (a)There is no long‐term equilibrium relationship between the growth of Shanghai's floor area and the migration of foreign population. (b) The construction area growth in Shanghai can affect the regional GDP growth to a certain extent. (c) The migration of migrants into Shanghai has a certain effect on the economic growth of Shanghai.

The Role of Higher Education and Financial Development on Economic Growth: Evidence on North Cyprus

This research aims to examine the effects of the development in the higher education and financial sector on economic growth in the case of North Cyprus. Findings of time series data show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real income and its elements such as labor, capital, higher education, and financial growth. Results show that both capital and labor have a statistically significant effect on economic growth. Additionally, development in the financial sector is a significant contributor to economic growth, however, higher education shows evidence of greater contribution to economic growth in North Cyprus. It draws attention that the higher education sector has a greater impact on economic development than the financial sector. In this context, government authorities should support both the financial and higher education sectors in order to accelerate their contribution to economic development. Policymakers needed to concentrate more on the higher education sector in Northern Cyprus.

Foreign direct investment on economic growth in Nepal: A sector specific analysis

This paper investigates the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the economic development of Nepal through a comprehensive and sector-specific analysis. With a growing interest in attracting foreign investments to foster economic growth, this study aims to provide nuanced insights into the diverse effects of FDI across various sectors in the context of Nepal. Utilizing a robust methodology that incorporates quantitative and qualitative approaches, the research examines key economic indicators and sectoral performance data over a specified period. This paper employs a sophisticated econometric framework that includes unit root tests to assess the stationarity properties of the time series data, ensuring the reliability of subsequent econometric models. The ECM and ARDL models facilitate the examination of both short-term and long-term dynamics between FDI and economic development variables, ARDL Bound test, is applied to investigate the existence of cointegration among the variables, providing insights into the long-term equilibrium relationship. Additionally, Granger causality tests are conducted to discern the directionality of causal relationships, helping to discern whether FDI leads to economic development or vice versa. The empirical results reveal compelling insights into the relationship between FDI and economic development in Nepal. Robustness checks further validate the reliability of the findings, enhancing the overall robustness and credibility of the study's empirical results. The comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to formulate targeted strategies for fostering sustainable economic development in Nepal through FDI.

Causal Relationship Between Economic Growth and Government Tax Revenue: A Case of Nigeria (1970-2021)

This paper aims at elucidating the mystery surrounding the belief that, high and vibrant economic activities and economic growth are a prima-facie and a leading indicator for high tax revenue as a source of income for the Federal government in Nigeria. The effects of economic growth on government tax revenue are therefore empirically investigated from 1970-2021. The short-run and long-run relationships between the economic growth in Nigeria and its tax revenue are thus explored in this study. Although, theoretical and empirical reports found that there is a causal relationship between economic growth and tax revenue; this study thus further investigated this relationship by applying Johansen's cointegration test, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to establish the short and long-run relationships that may exist between economic growth and government tax revenue. However, the findings of this study clearly showed that there is an independent relationship between economic growth and government tax revenue with a 76% speed of adjustment. Thus, there is a unidirectional relationship between economic growth and total government tax revenue with a 74.76% speed of adjustment in the short run to reach an equilibrium level in the long run. This implies that there is fiscal independence between economic growth and tax revenue. The empirical analysis also provides evidence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. Based on the findings that GDP, exchange rate, and production capacity strongly and positively affect the performance of tax revenue in Nigeria. The study recommends among others that appropriate fiscal policies be put in place to moderate the fluctuations in exchange rates of the Naira against other foreign currencies and that the government should support innovative activities by youths through the creation of innovative labs. This would help to create more job opportunities for the youths and also encourage public and private partnerships between the state governments and private investors to improve the economic activities of the country, which will in turn bring about increased tax revenue. Keywords: Economic Growth, Tax Revenue, Tax Policy, GDP,

EGG PRICE RESPONSE TO INCREASE IN THE PRICES OF MAIZE AND SOYBEAN MEAL IN NIGERIA USING ECONOMETRIC TOOLS

Poultry egg productionn depends greatly on maize and soybean meal which affect the price of egg directly. Egg has been confirmed as one of the cheapest sources of protein. This study was aimed at estimating the relationship between egg price (EP) response to maize price (MP) and soybean meal price (SBMP) changes in Nigeria from 1990 to 2021Time series data in respect of SBMP (N/Kilogramme), MP (N /Kilogramme) and EP (N /Crate) in local currency were obtained. Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and, the Johansen cointegration technique were employed to test for the stationarity of the variables and the long-run relationship between variables, respectively. Result of the study shows the presence of one co integrating long run equilibrium relationship between the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) estimates showed that MP and SBMP had a negative influence on egg production which consequently transform to high price of egg. Policies on reduction of MP and SBMP should be implemented so as to reduce the EP and make the produce more available to the Nigeria populace.

Application of artificial neural networks and Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models to the removal of textile dye using biosorbents: A comparative study among methodologies

AbstractAdsorption isotherms are valuable tools for describing the interaction between adsorbate and adsorbent since they demonstrate the equilibrium relationship. The Langmuir and Freundlich models are the most commonly used isotherm models to describe these relationships; still, they cannot consistently deliver efficient results due to the assumptions of the model not predicting more complex situations as occurs in biosorption. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are a set of algorithms modelled loosely after the human brain and are designed to recognize patterns. The ANN tool can overcome problems isotherm models have in describing the interactions mentioned and help define the best conditions for a given adsorption process. This paper reports the application of ANNs for predicting the removal efficiency of textile dye Neolan Black WA (Acid Black 52) using orange peel and sugarcane bagasse as biosorbents. The Freundlich, Langmuir, pseudo‐first‐order, and pseudo‐second‐order models were applied and compared to the ANN model. The parameters evaluated were initial dye concentration (10–600 mg/L), final dye concentration (0–83.44 mg/L), biosorbent mass (1.5 g), pH (2), and contact time of dye (0.167–24 h). Two classes of ANNs, Elman and feed‐forward networks, were tested with a mean square error of 0.0212 and 0.7274 for the isotherm and kinetics, respectively. Compared to the conventional isotherm and kinetic models, the Elman network predicted the amount adsorbed by the biosorbents with higher precision, acquiring a determination coefficient of 0.9998 and a mean square error of 8.75 × 10−5.

Role of financial openness in Ghana’s financial sector development episode

PurposeThis paper aims to reexamine the relationship between financial openness and financial development in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study applied maximum likelihood estimation and autoregressive distributed lag approach and tested Granger causality using quarterly data from 1990:1 to 2020:4.FindingsThis study revealed a long-run equilibrium relationship between financial openness and development, indicating that financial openness is a critical factor in Ghana’s financial development. Therefore, the study recommends with caution that policies aimed at promoting financial openness could be an effective way to encourage sustainable financial development in Ghana, as financial openness alone may not bring the desired outcome.Research limitations/implicationsThe study contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing empirical evidence of the link between financial openness and financial sector development in Ghana. Future research could delve deeper into the mechanisms through which financial openness affects financial development, exploring potential channels and transmission mechanisms.Practical implicationsThe findings suggest that policymakers, particularly the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Ghana, should prioritize policies aimed at promoting financial openness. This includes continued efforts toward financial liberalization and creating an environment conducive to domestic and international financial transactions. Moreover, policies aimed at increasing trade openness, boosting real GDP and maintaining moderate real interest rates are essential for fostering financial sector development.Social implicationsEnhancing financial sector development can have significant implications for society, including increased access to financial services, improved economic opportunities and enhanced overall economic stability. By promoting financial openness and development, policymakers would contribute to poverty reduction, job creation and overall socio-economic development. The study bridges the gap between theory and practice by providing empirical evidence supporting the theoretical proposition that financial openness stimulates financial sector development.Originality/valueThis study fills a crucial gap in the literature on the effects of financial openness on Ghana’s financial sector development. It focuses on Ghana, which liberalized its financial sector in 1988 as part of the overall economic reforms in 1983, and this justifies the starting point of this paper in 1990, as there are no adequate data before 1990. The study uses principal component analysis to construct an index that measures financial development. The study considers the recent financial crises in Ghana in 2017 and underscores the importance of understanding the link between financial openness and financial development, which becomes useful for policymakers and researchers studying financial system development in sub-Saharan Africa which includes Ghana.