ABSTRACT This paper investigates the role of total factor productivity (TFP), often used to proxy technological change, in building resilience against economic shrinking. Technological change is an important engine of economic growth, yet its role in helping to avoid GDP per capita contractions in the long run is less clear. Increasingly, research is showing that avoiding negative growth episodes, or shrinking, may be equally important for sustainable development. TFP is the primary differentiator in between-country incomes, yet it has not been studied from a shrinking perspective. This study employs a novel growth accounting extension to decompose TFP into positive and negative performance components. Using a global country sample and selected case studies reveals distinct positive and negative TFP performance patterns across country groupings between 1961 and 2019. Negative TFP performance is found to be the key limiting factor for catch-up growth in lower-income countries. High-income countries have mitigated negative TFP more effectively, with declining positive TFP performance lowering their trend TFP growth in recent decades. Resilience against shrinking appears to be a necessary, though insufficient, condition for trend TFP growth to emerge, suggesting that it is a key facilitator of catch-up growth.

Nonlinear and Episodic Growth in the Natural History of Ascending Aortic Dilation.

Abstract The accretion and feedback processes governing supermassive black hole (SMBH) growth span an enormous range of spatial scales, from the Event Horizon to the circumgalactic medium. Recent general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic (GRMHD) simulations demonstrate that strong magnetic fields can substantially suppress gas accretion onto black holes. These simulations show that magnetic fields create magnetically arrested disk states, reducing inflow rates by up to 2 orders of magnitude relative to classical predictions. We incorporate this magnetic suppression prescription from recent GRMHD studies into D ark S age , a semianalytic model that tracks SMBH and galaxy coevolution over cosmic time. Implementing the suppression across different accretion rate regimes, we explore its impact on the distribution of black hole masses, stellar masses in galaxies, and active galactic nucleus (AGN) luminosities. We find that restricting suppression to sub-Eddington accretors ( f Edd < 3 × 10 −3 ) and rescaling AGN feedback efficiencies gives simultaneous agreement with the observed local distributions of both galaxy and black hole masses. At early cosmic times ( z > 6), super-Eddington growth episodes dominate in our model, reproducing the high number densities of luminous AGN recently discovered by the James Webb Space Telescope. Our results highlight the critical sensitivity of galaxy assembly to the coupling between small-scale accretion physics and large-scale feedback regulation. Magnetic suppression of hot gas accretion can reconcile low-redshift constraints while preserving the rapid black hole growth required at early cosmic epochs, thereby providing a physically motivated bridge between horizon-scale GRMHD simulations and cosmological galaxy-formation models.

The Dai Loc shear zone in central Vietnam contains granulite-facies rocks and is a key area for studying the Early Paleozoic metamorphic evolution of the Indochina Block. An integrated study of in-situ geochronology, trace element geochemistry, and microtextural analysis was conducted to decipher the metamorphic evolution of this high-grade unit. Monazites from the two granulite samples display three distinct chemical domains, whose trace element compositions closely correlate with garnet growth and breakdown. Yttrium- and heavy rare-earth element (HREE)-rich monazite core domains are interpreted to have formed with limited garnet growth, recording a discrete growth episode during prograde metamorphism at ~435 Ma. Y- and HREE-poor domains are linked to significant garnet growth during peak conditions at ~420 Ma. The elevated Y+HREE concentrations in the outermost rim domains indicate their formation during garnet breakdown and likely date the retrograde metamorphism to ~390 Ma. These U–Pb monazite ages align well with the U-Pb zircon ages from granulites and syn-metamorphic granitoids in the study area, reinforcing the inferred metamorphic timeline. The results of this petrochronological study highlight the importance of integrating petrology with trace element data from major and accessory phases to link geochronological data to metamorphic P–T paths.

Since the findings of Léauté-Labrèze et al. [1] in 2008, many studies have shown the efficacy of propranolol in infantile hemangioma (IH). Still, its use is not risk-free and adverse events have been documented [2]. Designated by Lee [3] a ‘game changer’, the article of Ábarzúa-Araya et al. [2] showed that atenolol, a cardioselective β-blocker, may be at least as effective as propranolol for the treatment of IH and that patients with respiratory diseases may be treated with atenolol with the theoretical lower risk of bronchial obstruction and other adverse events. Recently, Fernandez Faith et al. [4] documented a shift in the management of IH. Advances in the knowledge and better treatment options have resulted in a transition from a predominantly noninterventionist approach to a more proactive one to treat and prevent complications. In addition to propranolol (approved by the Food and Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency for IH in 2014), other systemic β-blockers, mainly nadolol and atenolol, are being used for IH and have shown similar efficacy and safety when compared to propranolol. Because side effects of treatment during infancy may become visible later in life, the aim of the study of Hermans et al. [5] to describe the physical health and development of children, aged 6 and older, treated for IH during infancy with either propranolol or atenolol, showed that no differences were found between both β-blocker groups in any of the parent reported health outcomes. No additional health concerns or developmental problems were identified during the systematic clinical examination of the children by the paediatrician. Rebound growth of the IH following discontinuation of propranolol is a known phenomenon, with reported incidence of 6%–25%, with several risk factors being described. Baruch et al. [6] conducted a study demonstrating similar IH rebound growth incidence rates following the discontinuation of two oral β-blockers, supporting the non-inferiority of atenolol. Additionally, patients who were treated with atenolol required shorter treatment durations for rebound growth episodes, compared to patients treated with propranolol. With atenolol emerging as a promising alternative for IH therapy, demonstrating comparable efficacy and potentially greater tolerability than propranolol, the retrospective cohort study at a tertiary dermatology clinic published by Shi et al. [7] in this issue of the JEACP, is the first study to compare the efficacy and safety of atenolol at 1.5 mg/kg/day, with the more common 1 and 2 mg/kg/day dosages. The overall findings demonstrate that atenolol is effective in treating IH, achieving a substantial response in almost 90% of infants, over half of whom responded at 1.5 mg/kg/day or less, with minimal side effects. Complete involution at 1.5 mg/kg/day was achieved in over two-thirds of lesions, demonstrating the efficacy of this intermediary dose. Overall, 49.4% of lesions fully involuted, which was slightly lower than previous trials (53% in Ábarzúa-Araya and colleagues). Adverse effects requiring treatment cessation occurred in 3.6% (n = 3), all being behavioural changes. With a longer half-life, that allows less-frequent daily dosing and better compliance, and as a hydrophilic β-blocker, which does not cross the blood–brain barrier, offering a decreased risk of sleep disturbance and cognitive effects, atenolol appears to offer a comparable or superior efficacy to propranolol with fewer side effects and more-favourable posology [8]. The author received no specific funding for this work. The author declares no conflicts of interest. Data sharing is not applicable to this article as no new data were created or analysed in this study.

The North China Craton (NCC), one of the oldest cratons worldwide, may provide information on the evolution and geodynamic processes of the early Earth, especially during the pre-Mesoarchean period. Many ancient zircons have been discovered in the Jiapigou terrane of the northeastern NCC on the basis of our recent studies, providing an excellent opportunity to trace the early crustal evolution trend of the NCC. Here, we present a detailed study of the petrography, mineralogy, zircon U–Pb dating and Lu–Hf isotopes of supracrustal rocks (biotite schist) obtained from the Jiapigou terrane. Geochronology combined with the internal structures and Th/U ratios of the zircons reveal that the zircons acquired from the supracrustal rock can be divided into the following two types: magmatic zircons and metamorphic zircons. Among the magmatic zircons, the youngest zircon age (2.49 Ga) is considered to represent the time at which the protolith of the supracrustal rock (i.e., Neoarchean) crystallized, whereas the others were likely captured or inherited from their magma sources. The zircon Hf isotopes reveal that unexposed Hadean–Paleoarchean crust (4.18–3.57 Ga) is present beneath the Jiapigou terrane, and its growth history can be traced back to the Hadean period. Moreover, the evidence derived from this and previous studies indicates that the Jiapigou terrane underwent two crustal recycling events (3.37–3.20 Ga and ~2.96 Ga) during the Paleoarchean, two crustal reworking episodes (2.53 Ga and 2.49 Ga) during the Neoarchean, and later metamorphism at 2.41 Ga. Thus, the Jiapigou terrane has undoubtedly recorded multiple episodes of early crustal growth and/or reworking that are similar to, but not limited to, those of the northern and southern margins of the NCC.

Geochemical, diagenetic and depositional characteristics of the Maastrichtian Agbaja Formation ironstone exposed at Enegbaki, southern Bida Basin, Nigeria

Abstract. This study investigates the impact of water uptake by particles during hygroscopic growth on aerosol fluorescence properties, using multiwavelength Mie–Raman–fluorescence lidar measurements conducted at the ATmospheric Observation at LiLLe (ATOLL) observatory (Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique, University of Lille) between 2021 and 2024. During certain episodes, we observed a systematic height-dependent decrease in the fluorescence backscattering coefficient within the well-mixed planetary boundary layer. This phenomenon begins at relatively low relative humidity (RH ∼ 50 %) simultaneously with a decrease in the particle depolarization ratio. However, the rapid growth of the aerosol backscattering coefficient at high RH is not mirrored by the same rate of fluorescence reduction. This distinct behavior suggests a nonlinear relationship between water uptake and fluorescence suppression, likely indicating that water-induced quenching effects operate independently of bulk hygroscopic growth. Furthermore, we demonstrate the capability to retrieve particle volume and surface area density from single-wavelength extinction coefficients during strong hygroscopic growth episodes, validated against full 3β+2α lidar measurements. The values of the conversion factors for urban aerosol and smoke at 355 and 532 nm, together with associated uncertainties, are presented.

Academic freedom faces threats worldwide, including in some democracies that have traditionally been viewed as bastions of free universities. In the 21st century, academic freedom has declined in 20 (former) democracies, ranging from slow deterioration to abrupt collapse. Previous research shows that attacks on academic freedom are systematically linked to democratic backsliding. However, in some democracies that experience backsliding, academia remains autonomous. We employ data from the Varieties of Democracy project, utilizing the Episodes of Regime Transformation dataset and the Academic Freedom Index, alongside data on decline and growth episodes in academic freedom. Through an explorative study design, we analyse various political and academia-related determinants of academia’s resilience amidst democratic backsliding. Our analysis shows that an autocratization episode reduces academic freedom resilience only slightly to levels between 96.7% and 95.5% for a given country-year, compared to over 99.5% for country-years without such episodes. Overall, our analysis highlights remarkable academic resilience.

ABSTRACTThe rarity of zircon occurrence in ultramafic‐mafic systems offers valuable insights into the geological processes related to its formation, mixing of heterogeneous magmas, assimilation of surrounding wall rock, or the combination of various source materials apart from the conventional geochronology. This study reports an undocumented mafic dyke of picritic affinity from the Karimnagar Granulite Belt (KGB) of southern India, characterised by olivine, two pyroxenes, chrome spinel, plagioclase, and high MgO (16 wt.%), Cr (2624 ppm), and Ni (815 ppm). Prominent negative Nb, Ta, and Ti, positive Zr, and Hf anomalies, along with enriched LILE and LREE, indicate that the dyke has undergone crustal contamination. However, the Th/Yb and Nb/Yb ratios suggest that mantle metasomatism preceded crustal contamination, significantly contributing to the mildly alkaline character of the studied rocks. Most recovered zircons show clear signs of a magmatic origin, reflected in their REE profiles and Th/U ratios (> 0.5), although some exhibit evidence of post‐crystallisation processes. The dating results show an age range from the Neoarchean to the Paleoproterozoic (2.7–1.9 Ga), making it unlikely to represent the intrusion age of the dyke. This age range indicates that ancient crustal material has significantly influenced the mafic magma, emphasising the zircon's xenocrystic nature and suggesting a source from continental granitoids with arc affinity. The age coherence between the studied zircon and the zircons of KGB charnockites indicates that 2.5 Ga was the major crustal growth episode. This study reveals that heterochronous zircons, paired with traditional geochemical proxies, are crucial for understanding ancient crustal components within mafic magmas, highlighting the complex dynamics of the cryptic mixing process.

Abstract We focus on the topic of high-growth firms (HGFs) that add hierarchical layers around the time of the high-growth (HG) episode. Competing theories highlight how either firms plan ahead and invest proactively in organizational infrastructure, or that firms “drag their feet” and respond only when the setting up of new management layers can no longer be avoided. Drawing on rich Brazilian employer-employee census micro-data (RAIS, 2003–2019) with over 3 million observations in our final sample, our difference-in-differences estimations appear somewhere between the two theoretical benchmarks. Firms start adding additional knowledge hierarchies from the start of the growth period, and firms stop adding when the growth period is over. Small firms (fewer than 50 employees) have a higher likelihood of introducing a new hierarchical layer. Anticipation effects (adding hierarchical layers before the first year of the growth episode) are almost completely absent. In growing firms, the share of managers decreases during the HG period and hits a trough at the end of the HG period before rising (presumably as HG firms are pressured to hire more managers).

This study makes an attempt to unfurl why the off-budget exposure of the government, which poses sizeable fiscal risks as and when they materialize, is an off-shoot of the on-budget constraints that governments either inherit or get involved in. These not only include procedural or rule-driven inefficiencies but also combine asymmetrical nature of growth episodes at both the national and sub-national levels. As a result, much of the off-budget debt burden rises in both its implicit form through the rise in magnitude of the debt–deficit stock-flow reconciliation and explicit form in the form of guarantees extended to distressed public sector bodies. We employ the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model to account for this relationship between the off-budget and on-budget indicators at both the national and sub-national levels. This carries significant policy implications for a federal nation like India where lack of uniformity in fiscal rules coupled with the responsibility of bailing out state governments lying with the national government entails a clear mandate for fiscal transparency at all level of the government. JEL Codes: E610, E620, E660, E600

Among various palaeoclimatic analyses of the Late-Holocene, assessing the cave ice growth rate offers valuable insights into past environmental conditions. Dobšiná Ice Cave (DIC; Carpathians, Slovakia) is an impressive ice cave, which hosts one of the most extensive subterranean perennial ice block. Thirteen organic macroremains were collected from a clearly layered ice section ca. 12 m thick. 14 C dating of the samples enabled the construction of the precise age-depth model which revealed the ice growth rate. The obtained data proved that it was high during the Dark Ages (1.29 cm/year), significantly lower during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (0.58 cm/year), again high during the Little Ice Age (1.2 cm/year), and then decreased again (0.95 cm/year) during the Anthropogenic Recent Warmth. Among the collected organic macroremains, 10 were bats remains belonging to the species Myotis mystacinus, M. brandtii and Eptesicus nilssonii , which recently hibernate in the cold conditions of the cave. They group into two age clusters, which indicates higher bats mortality during colder periods, that is, the Dark Ages and Little Ice Age. This is consistent with episodes of faster ice growth in DIC. The continuous ice growth distinguishes DIC from several Alpine caves, where episodes of ice melting have been documented during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. This may result from local site-specific processes or geographically differentiated climatic conditions over Central Europe during the period under consideration.

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) has recently launched a framework of economic growth titled “The PIDE Reform Agenda for Accelerated and Sustained Growth”. The Reform Agenda points out that Pakistan has had a rough economic growth journey since independence due to intrinsic flaws in the development model which the country is still following. A rethinking of the development model and reconfiguring the role of the government is imperative to achieve a higher and sustainable growth that is indispensable for employment generation and debt sustainability.Over the last seventy-two years, the economic growth of Pakistan has remained volatile and has fluctuated widely. Likewise, the long-term growth shows a downward trend (see Figure below). Investment and productivity are the key determinants of economic growth, unfortunately, the dismal performance of Pakistan on both these fronts has contributed to the decline in long-term growth. The sporadic growth experience of Pakistan raises two fundamental questions, One, why Pakistan’s growth episodes are not sustained and two, what are the basic constraints to economic growth in Pakistan? This brief seeks to address these two issues.

Abstract Christian evangelicals now represent a significant share of the global population. Notably, they are expected to soon outnumber Roman Catholics in several low- and middle-income countries. This paper examines whether such episodes of religious minority growth can reshape electoral politics. To address this, I combine novel data spanning over two decades (1994–2018) of Christian evangelicals’ expansion across Brazilian municipalities with indicators of structural changes in electoral politics: voter turnout, competition, polarization, and conservatism. Regression models with unit and year-fixed effects reveal no impact of the evangelical boom on electoral competition and polarization, suggestive evidence of increasing conservatism in recent years, and a clear and robust negative effect on turnout. Regression discontinuity design estimates, leveraging an exogenous and discontinuous growth of Christian evangelicals in Brazil’s rural areas, support these findings. The results suggest that the rise of religious minorities may drive gradual transformations in electoral politics.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has considerable potential benefits for the companies that develop and implement it, but it may also contribute to the formation of a speculative bubble in financial markets. This study examines the performance of a portfolio of AI-related stocks during the period 2020-2024, with a focus on its return and risk. The investment in AI stocks has demonstrated relatively strong performance, with the risk-return ratio outperforming that of major market indices. Despite concerns about a potential AI bubble, no such phenomenon has been observed – while AI stock prices have experienced corrections, there have been no episodes of explosive growth followed by collapse.

‘Green growth’ is a cornerstone of global sustainability debates and policy agenda. Although there is no consensus definition, it is commonly associated with the absolute decoupling of economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions, which is indeed occurring in high-income countries today. Nevertheless, green growth thus defined could be insufficient to reach global mitigation goals. Here we examine long-term historical data and develop a framework to identify global, regional, and national patterns of decoupling between economic output and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show that 60% of cumulative fossil-fuel CO2 reduction during 1820–2022 took place under recessions rather than during instances of green growth, with just 5 global crises accounting for about 40%. While in the last 50 years national episodes of green growth became more common, they have not been sustained over time. Crucially, historical episodes compatible with sustained growth and the required emission reductions are anecdotal.

ABSTRACTWe propose and apply a framework that analyses the distributional impact of episodes of overall health growth or decline. We use local smoothing to model the relationship between health outcomes and relative income rank and we introduce Health Growth Incidence Curves (HGIC) to graph the rate of change of health outcomes across the income distribution. We illustrate our framework with an analysis of the distributional dynamics of health and well‐being among those aged 60–85 in the years 2004 and 2015 using pooled SHARE data for selected European countries. Overall we observe a pattern that favours individuals with higher socioeconomic status, with a pro‐rich distribution of improvements in outcomes. Only cognitive capacity growth has been uniform across income groups.

Though long de-mystified by economic history literature, the idea of a German “economic miracle” of the 1950s occasionally shows up in popular discourse, propelled by political motivation. The article starts with a brief summary of older arguments for reconstruction as opposed to a structural break having caused economic recovery. It then addresses the more recent discussion on the continuation of the economic order after 1945. Both debates, however, have neglected the international dimension of Germany’s spectacular growth episode. The article therefore asks, if indicators of the structural transformation to a market economy can be found on the global level.

This study offers an uncommon perspective on household poverty dynamics over a 16-year period of sustained strong economic growth. We combine the large and high-quality consumption surveys used to produce official poverty statistics with information from a nationally representative household panel for rural areas to study poverty dynamics in Bangladesh between 2000 and 2016 using synthetic panel methods. We document the steady and substantial decline of persistent poverty, which has been particularly pronounced in rural areas. Transient poverty declined at a slower pace and affected twice as many households than persistent poverty (30% vs. 14%) between 2010 and 2016. There are stark differences in poverty dynamics across divisions, large and persistent disparities across education levels, and a strong but diminishing association with employment type in urban areas. High levels of mobility, relatively greater in urban Bangladesh, and the growing importance of transient poverty stress the need to consider measures to help poor households cope with income fluctuations and initiatives to address the needs of vulnerable households as core components of poverty reduction efforts.