Kuznets Curve Research Articles

Different Dimensions of Globalization and CO2 Emission Nexus: Application of Environmental Kuznets Curve for Worldwide Perspective

This study investigates how various facets of globalization directly affect CO₂ emissions under the widely recognized Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework, utilizing panel data from a broad cross-section of countries. By incorporating economic, political, and social globalization indices alongside macroeconomic variables (GDP per capita, GDP growth, and manufacturing value added), this analysis furnishes a more holistic perspective on the overall globalization–environment nexus. The empirical strategy employs panel unit root tests to evaluate stationarity, followed by ordinary least squares and random effects to secure robust coefficient stability and extended-run insights. The findings validate an inverted U-shaped link between GDP per capita and CO₂ emissions, suggesting that while emissions initially climb with income in early development, they eventually decrease at higher income tiers, in line with the EKC hypothesis. Economic globalization typically shows a positive, albeit occasionally model-sensitive, association with emissions, implying that expanded trade and cross-border production can boost carbon output, particularly when technological or regulatory standards remain weak. In contrast, political and social globalization display weak or negligible direct impacts on CO₂ emissions, implying that diplomatic ties and cultural interactions alone may not fully suffice to curb pollution without complementary environmental measures. Interestingly, expansions in manufacturing value added often align with reduced emissions, underscoring the possible influence of cleaner industrial processes and efficiency improvements. These findings underscore the importance of policy initiatives that reconcile the benefits of global economic integration with rigorous environmental governance. Sustaining inclusive economic progress while mitigating environmental harm relies on constructing stronger institutional frameworks, leveraging targeted technological advances in manufacturing, and fostering global cooperation on emissions criteria.

Zero Emissions and Zero Unemployment: A Feasible Future or Conflicting Objectives?

Achieving high economic growth along with low unemployment rates and better environmental quality presents a key challenge for economic policy. The study investigates the validity of the Environmental Phillips Curve (EPC) and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypotheses in India. This study utilizes a range of econometric methodologies, encompassing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the combined cointegration test, and the Toda-Yamamoto causality test, to analyze annual time series data spanning the period from 1991 to 2022. The findings confirm the validity of the EPC in both the long- and short-run. However, the evidence does not provide strong support for the EKC hypothesis. Among control variables, capital formation and GDP per capita has adverse impacts on environmental quality, while renewable energy consumption has no significant impact. For India, with the world's largest young population, environmentally friendly job creation is crucial. Developing energy-efficient technologies and increasing investment in renewables are key to balancing zero-emission and zero-unemployment goals.

Institutional Structure and Environmental Pollution: An Application within the Framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis

The EKC hypothesis explains the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. However, criticisms of its fundamental assumptions suggest that this relationship should be examined more comprehensively. While the EKC hypothesis addresses the link between income levels and environmental quality, it may overlook the impact of institutional structures and policy factors. In this context, recent studies increasingly highlight the role of institutional structures in environmental degradation. Accordingly, this study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of environmental sustainability by approaching the EKC hypothesis from the perspective of institutional quality. To determine the effects of institutional quality on environmental degradation, the study employs the Driscoll-Kraay estimation method. The analysis is conducted on a sample of SADC countries for the period 1990-2021. The findings indicate that institutional quality has a statistically significant and positive effect on environmental degradation; however, beyond a certain threshold, this effect reverses. Additionally, the impact of economic growth on environmental degradation is examined within the EKC framework, revealing that while per capita income initially increases environmental degradation, exceeding a certain income level leads to improvements in environmental quality. The findings confirm the validity of the EKC hypothesis in SADC countries and suggest that strong institutional structures can play a supportive role in promoting environmental sustainability.

Tourism-Induced Environmental Degradation ASEAN Countries: Causes and Consequences

The existence of digitalization and technological advancements causes information to spread quickly. In fact, information about the tourism sector among countries like ASEAN is very easily accessible, which leads to an increase in people's mobility for tourism activities. ASEAN is one of the regions in the Asia Pacific with the highest CO2 emissions. Tourism is considered to be an important indicator in explaining a country's environmental pollution. This is based on the Tourism-Led Growth hypothesis, which states that the expansion of tourism activities impacts economic growth, while on the other hand, the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis explains that economic development triggers environmental degradation. This study aims to analyze the influence of GDP per capita, the number of international tourists, and the volume of international flight passenger traffic on CO2 emissions and the relevance of the EKC hypothesis in 5 ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam). The data processing method uses panel data regression analysis. The selected model in this study is the fixed effect model with cross-section weight estimation. The results of the study indicate that GDP per capita and the volume of international flight passenger traffic have positive coefficients with probabilities of 0.0000 and 0.0171, respectively. Meanwhile, the number of foreign tourist visits has a negative coefficient with a probability of 0.0216. This study also shows that the EKC hypothesis is relevant to the case of the 5 ASEAN countries with a turning point at an income level of USD 9,937 per capita.

Quantile-based Asymmetric Relationship Between Economic Growth and Carbon Emission in the World’s Top Five Largest Economies

The world’s top five largest economies have the lion’s share of the world’s carbon emissions. In this study, we examine how economic growth affects carbon emissions in these countries. Here, we move beyond the debate on the Environmental Kuznets Curve by using quantile-based econometric tools to capture the non-linear relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. For this purpose, we employ quantile regression (QR) and quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR). The results of QR indicate that Germany’s economic growth is environmentally friendly, while for other countries, economic growth directly contributes to increased carbon emissions. A heterogeneous effect of economic growth on carbon emissions is observed in the QR model. The QQR results show that, for the USA, Japan and Germany, economic growth positively affects carbon emissions at lower quantile combinations. However, at higher quantile combinations, economic growth leads to a reduction in carbon emissions. In contrast, for China and India, economic growth consistently causes an increase in carbon emissions across all quantile combinations. However, at higher quantile combinations, the effect is significantly weaker compared to lower quantile combinations. Therefore, we conclude that the degradation of environmental quality diminishes as economies mature. JEL Codes: C50, O44, Q50, Q54, Q56

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Pollution Haven Hypothesis: Using the dynamic Interaction of Macroeconomic Variables in Zambia

Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and Pollution Haven Hypothesis: Using the dynamic Interaction of Macroeconomic Variables in Zambia

Nexus between uncertainty, innovation, and environmental sustainability in BRICS: an analysis under the environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework

This study explores the relationship between trade, economic uncertainty, innovation, and climate change in BRICS nations using the Environmental Kuznets Curve framework. The research is driven by the global imperative to address climate change, with predictions of a 2.7°C rise in global temperatures by the century’s end, surpassing Paris Agreement targets. The study uses data from 1995 to 2023, employing unit root tests, cointegration tests (Bayer-Hanck and Maki), Augmented Autoregressive Distributed lagged and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lagged models, and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto causality test to capture long- and short-term dynamics. The results demonstrate that technological and environmental innovations are critical in reducing carbon emissions, reinforcing the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis that economic growth initially worsens but eventually mitigates environmental degradation. Conversely, economic, trade, and oil price uncertainties exacerbate environmental challenges by deterring investments in sustainable practices and clean technologies. A 10% increase in economic policy uncertainty, trade policy uncertainty, and oil price uncertainty significantly raise carbon emissions. In contrast, a 10% improvement in TI and EI reduces emissions, emphasizing the indispensable role of innovation in fostering environmental sustainability. To effectively combat climate change and align with international climate goals, BRICS nations must integrate their climate policies within the frameworks of the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals—notably SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 9 (Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). Reducing policy uncertainties is crucial for mobilizing green investments, while subsidies, tax incentives, and strong regulatory frameworks should be prioritized to accelerate innovation-driven decarbonization. Furthermore, enhanced international cooperation, governance, and adaptive policy instruments will enable BRICS nations to navigate economic and environmental uncertainties, ensuring a transition to low-carbon economies and sustainable development pathways.

Education for sustainable development in Somalia: do economic growth, energy consumption, and population density affect ecological footprints?

Somalia faces severe environmental challenges, including overdependence on nonrenewable energy, deforestation, and rapid population growth, exacerbated by poor governance and weak institutional capacity. As one of the most climate-vulnerable nations, Somalia’s environmental sustainability is crucial for its long-term economic and social stability. Given this background, this study examines the dynamic impact of economic growth, energy consumption, education, and population density on Somalia’s ecological footprint using annual data from 1990 to 2020. Employing ARDL and DOLS models, the findings confirm a long-run cointegration relationship among the scrutinized variables. The results indicate that energy consumption significantly increases ecological pressures. In contrast, education mitigates environmental impacts. Additionally, population density is found to intensify ecological stress in both the short and long run. Unlike many countries, Somalia does not exhibit the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis, highlighting the urgent need for targeted policy interventions. By considering these outcomes, this study proposes adopting renewable energy, integrating environmental education, and implementing sustainable urban and economic strategies to alleviate ecological pressures and ensure long-term environmental sustainability. Moreover, the findings provide critical insights for policymakers in Somalia and other developing economies facing similar environmental challenges.Graphical abstract

Foreign Direct Investment and Environmental Impacts in D8 Countries: Analysis of the Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo and Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypotheses

Foreign direct investments are an important component of global economic integration and promote economic growth in developing countries. However, these investments can lead to environmental degradation and increase the ecological footprint, especially in countries with inadequate environmental legislation. This situation can become a factor that threatens environmental sustainability with industrialization and increasing resource consumption. The aim of this study is to test the Pollution Haven, Pollution Halo and Environmental Kuznets Curve hypotheses. For this purpose, the FMOLS long-term coefficient estimator was used based on the data from 1995 to 2022 in D8 countries. According to the results obtained, it was found that the Pollution Haven hypothesis is valid, while the Pollution Halo and Environmental Kuznets Curve hypotheses are not valid. These findings show that foreign direct investments in D8 countries can increase environmental degradation and that these countries need stricter environmental policies.

Does Economic Growth Impact Environmental Degradation? Evidence from OECD Countries Using the Panel Dynamic Threshold Model

Various studies and research were carried out, particularly by developed countries, to ensure that the production process, a fundamental part of economic growth and development, is carried out in an environmentally sustainable manner. In this context, the theory known as the Environmental Kuznets Hypothesis (EKH), which addresses the association between income levels and environmental damage, has been widely tested by researchers. This study investigates the relationship between income levels and environmental damage in OECD member countries and tests the validity of the EKH. For this purpose, data covering the period 1965-2020 were analyzed using a panel data-based dynamic threshold model. The analysis results suggest that the income threshold value is calculated as 3,204. The findings confirm the validity of the EKH. Additionally, the results reveal that economic growth negatively impacts the environment and leads to environmental degradation until the income threshold level is reached. However, in line with the hypothesis, once the income threshold level is exceeded, the adverse effects of economic growth on environmental degradation gradually diminish. When all findings are considered together, it is clearly demonstrated that the association between income level and environmental damage exhibits an inverted U-shape pattern

Economic Growth, Innovation, and CO2 Emissions: Analyzing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the Innovation Claudia Curve in BRICS Countries

This study explores the dynamic relationship between economic growth, technological innovation, and CO2 emissions in BRICS nations, integrating the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and Innovation Claudia Curve (ICC) frameworks. Using a panel ARDL approach on data from 1991 to 2023, we investigate the long-run and short-run interactions between GDP, renewable energy consumption (RENC), foreign direct investment (FDI), urbanization (URB), and patent applications (PAs) in shaping environmental outcomes. The findings confirm the EKC hypothesis, revealing an N-shaped relationship between GDP and emissions, indicating that while economic growth initially leads to higher CO2 emissions, this trend reverses at a critical threshold before a secondary increase occurs at higher income levels. The ICC framework identifies a cubic relationship between innovation and emissions, where technological advancements initially drive higher emissions before contributing to sustainability at later stages, though an excessive scale of innovation may reintroduce environmental pressures. RENC is found to significantly mitigate emissions, while URB and FDI display dual and context-dependent effects, highlighting the multidimensionality of sustainable transitions in emerging economies. These results underscore the importance of targeted policy interventions, such as scaling renewable energy infrastructure, promoting green innovation, guiding urban expansion, and aligning FDI with environmental objectives.

Exploring the Path to Carbon Neutrality in Prominent Asian Nations: How Green Technological Advancements, Transportation Initiatives, and Financial Progression Work?

ABSTRACT This study investigates the interplay between green technology innovation, transportation systems, financial development, and carbon emissions within a sample of 10 nations in North and South East Asia over the period 1995–2021. Utilizing fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) and augmented mean group (AMG) techniques, the study accounts for heterogeneity across different countries and regions. Heterogeneous panel non-causality test is also employed to analyze the direction of causality. The results reveal a significant negative correlation between green technology innovation (GTI) and carbon emissions, suggesting that technological advancements contribute to carbon emission reduction. A negative correlation is also observed between transportation and carbon emissions, indicating that infrastructure development does not let the quality of the environment deteriorate in these countries. Additionally, we find financial development positively affect carbon emission, which means that more attention needs to be paid on environmental issues when developing economy. The study confirms the presence of the environmental kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, highlighting the complex relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation. The findings underscore the need for policy interventions to balance economic development with environmental sustainability.

Green Innovation and Fiscal Spending: Decoding the Path to Sustainable Development

ABSTRACTThis study investigates the impact of environmental and economic factors on carbon emissions (CAR) in China from 2007 to 2020, considering the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. We employ the MM‐QR approach to analyze asymmetric relationships between Green Total Factor Productivity (GTFP), Fiscal Expenditure Technology (FTE), Green Technology Innovation (GTI), Innovation Level (INN), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Human Capital (HC), and carbon emissions (CAR). Findings reveal that GTFP, FTE, GTI, and INN exert significant negative impacts on cCAR, with these effects strengthening at higher quantiles. This suggests that advancements in green technology and fiscal policies promoting environmental technologies contribute to reduced carbon emissions. Conversely, GDP exhibits a positive association with CAR, potentially reflecting the initial stages of the EKC. GDP2 is also positively associated, indicating a potential turning point towards environmental degradation at higher income levels. Based on these results, the study proposes policy recommendations to enhance ecological well‐being and achieve net‐zero emissions. These include fostering human capital development for skilled labor in green sectors, promoting the development and adoption of green technologies, and increasing fiscal expenditure on environmental research and development (R&D). This research contributes to the field of environmental management by providing empirical evidence on the effectiveness of green economic policies and technological advancements in reducing carbon emissions. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers aiming to achieve sustainable development in China and similar economies.

Rethinking the Climate Change–Inequality Nexus: The Role of Wealth Inequality, Economic Growth, and Renewable Energy in CO2 Emissions

Reducing global greenhouse gas emissions and implementing sustainable environmental policies require the identification of the economic, political, ecological, and social factors that affect emission levels. To this end, this study examines, for the first time, the impact of wealth inequality, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption on CO2 emissions in 17 countries with the highest wealth inequality over the 1995–2021 period. This study employs a novel and robust approach, the method of moments quantile regression, to analyze the relationships among these variables. Findings support the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis by displaying that economic growth initially increases CO2 emissions but has a dampening effect after a turning point. Moreover, renewable energy consumption reduces CO2 emissions, where certain as increasing wealth inequality contributes to higher CO2 emissions. These results underscore the need for policymakers to adopt more egalitarian socioeconomic models, accelerate the transition to clean energy, and maintain robust environmental policies to achieve sustainable development goals.

Examining tourism-induced environmental Kuznets Curves in South Asia

This paper analyzes the non-linear tourism-environmental degradation nexus in the selected South Asian countries using a modified Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) framework. While previous literature has shown inconclusive results, this paper applies the Cross-Sectional Autoregressive Distributed Lag (CS-ARDL) method to examine tourism-induced EKCs from 1990 to 2021. Findings reveal a valid N-shaped EKC for the selected South Asian countries. Country-level estimates show that Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka exhibit N-shaped tourism-induced EKC. However, Nepal and Bhutan show inverse tourism-induced U-shaped EKC. The paper suggests policy measures to address the tourism-environmental degradation nexus, including promoting private sustainable investment, enacting eco-friendly policies, raising public awareness, and encouraging sustainable tourism in the region.

Impact Of Coal-Based Electricity Generation, Land Use Change, Steel And Cement Production On CO2 Emissions: Evidence From Eastern European And Central Asian Countries

The problem of studying carbon footprint factors is one of the key ones for understanding the relationship between socio-economic development and atmospheric pollution. We employ a panel quantile regression approach to reveal the impact of the energy sector (namely, coal-based electricity and hydropower generation), manufacturing (steel and cement production), and agriculture (cropland area change) on CO2 emissions in 16 Eastern European and 4 Central Asian countries for the period from 2000 to 2020. We provide evidence for a U-shaped environmental Kuznets curve for countries with a lower carbon footprint, while the countries with the highest emissions are found to have an inverted U-shaped relationship between them and GDP per capita. The relationship between electricity production from coal and emissions is positive and significant at all quantiles (except the 30th quantile), and for hydropower, it is negative and significant from the 20th to 70th quantile: a 1% increase in generation leads to CO2 emissions increase by 0.08-0.20% and a decrease by 0.04-0.07%, respectively. Crude steel production positively influences emissions (from the 10th to 80th quantile levels): a 1% increase in the output of steel products results in carbon emissions increase by 0.05-0.07%. The relationship between cropland expansion and emissions is positive from the 40th quantile, but the coefficient shows high significance only at the 80th quantile. These findings allow us to conclude that CO2 emissions reduction in Eastern European and Central Asian countries could be achieved by the replacement of coal in the electricity generation structure by renewables (including hydropower), the introduction of sustainable land use practices to preserve carbon sinks, and technological modernization of crude steel production.

Investigation of the role of technological innovation in reducing carbon dioxide damage in Turkey with Fourier tests: Testing the Kuznets curve hypothesis

Abstract Rising global environmental concerns have intensified the need to understand the relationship between technological innovation, economic growth, and environmental degradation, particularly in rapidly industrializing economies. This study examines these relationships in Türkiye within the framework of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. Using annual data from 1984 to 2019, we employ Fourier-based econometric techniques, including unit root tests, cointegration analysis, and causality testing, to account for potential structural breaks and nonlinearities. Our findings reveal that while technological innovation currently contributes to increased carbon dioxide emissions, with a 1% increase in innovation leading to a 0.061% rise in environmental degradation, there exists an inverted U-shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation, supporting the EKC hypothesis for Türkiye. Causality tests indicate unidirectional relationships flowing from environmental degradation to both technological innovation and economic growth. These results suggest that Türkiye requires strategic policy interventions focusing on green technologies and sustainable innovation to transition toward environmental sustainability while maintaining economic growth.

The Spatial Impact of PM2.5 Pollution on Economic Growth from 2012 to 2022: Evidence from Satellite and Provincial-Level Data in Thailand

This study examines the spatial relationship of PM2.5 concentrations across provinces in Thailand and explores the relationship between socio-economic factors and PM2.5 levels from 2012 to 2022. The study results indicate that PM2.5 pollution in Thailand is spatially clustered, meaning that PM2.5 spills over into nearby provinces and is not confined to a single area. The factors that positively affect PM2.5 concentrations include population density and energy consumption per capita, while industrial density has a negative effect on PM2.5 levels. Additionally, an Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) analysis found that the Gross Provincial Product (GPP) per capita has a U-shaped relationship with the PM2.5 concentration. In the initial stage of economic growth, as the GPP per capita increases, PM2.5 concentrations gradually decrease. However, once income reaches USD 56,715 and the economy becomes significantly large, further increases in GPP per capita lead to rising PM2.5 concentrations. In other words, during the early phase of economic development, PM2.5 pollution does not intensify significantly. However, once Thailand’s economy reaches a certain scale, continued economic expansion exacerbates PM2.5 pollution, leading to greater economic and social consequences. The study highlights the importance of integrated collaboration among various organizations in mitigating the widespread impacts of PM2.5 pollution.

Comparative analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis for E7 countries on the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth

Abstract Carrying out a responsible production that will minimize the negative effects of chemicals and wastes on human health and the environment has its place among the SDGs determined by the United Nations (SDGs-12: Responsible Production and Consumption). It is important to investigate the environmental strategies of the economies that lead to environmental pollution globally at highest level and to fulfil their responsibilities in the transition to sustainable economic growth. Using time series from 1965 to 2021, the primary goal of this study is to ascertain the direction and importance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and EG for the E7 countries. The most appropriate environment-income models for E7 countries have been tried to be selected based on the OLS estimation results of six model specifications derived from the general EKC model and the results of ARDL Bounds Test in which cointegration relationships between variables have been investigated. In this context, the CO2 emission-income relationship has been determined as ‘N’ for Türkiye and India, ‘U’ for China and inverted ‘N’ for Russia. It has been found out that an increasing linear form of CO2 emission-income relationship emerged for Brazil and Mexico, and the EKC hypothesis (inverted ‘U’ relationship) has been found to be valid only for Indonesia among the variables in question. As a result, it is understood from the analysis that it is not possible for E7 countries except for Indonesia to fulfil the commitments made in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Transforming energy for sustainability: The digital economy's role in reducing industrial hazards

The digital economy, emerging as a new energy source, is driving the transition to green and sustainable urbanization through its significant enabling effects. While the digital economy enhances productivity, replaces traditional energy, and has the potential to transform production models, further investigation is needed to understand its impact on reducing industrial hazards. This article addresses this gap by acknowledging the transformative impact of digital technologies on economic activities, based on the latest expanded EKC theory. The study highlights the energy efficiency of digitalization as a crucial mechanism for reducing industrial hazards. It also highlights a wealth effect associated with the digital economy that may increase pollution, thereby expanding on the Environmental Kuznets Curve Theory. To clarify the interplay of these effects, the study employs a multidimensional estimation method to analyze the dynamic impact of the digital economy on reducing industrial hazards. Empirical estimates indicate a weak causal relationship between the digital economy and sulfur dioxide emissions, with an increase in broadband subscribers having a slight negative effect on emissions reduction. In contrast, the expanding scientific industry significantly reduces emissions, with reductions ranging from −0.535 to −1.423 tons per billion RMB of output (or 1400 million US dollars). Increased gas supply and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), often tied to energy-intensive industries, positively influence emissions, with FDI showing a significant coefficient of 0.004. The digital economy's impact on industrial wastewater discharge is unclear, but the scientific industry demonstrates a significant negative effect, with coefficients from −2.501 to −2.819 tons per unit output. The most significant finding of this empirical research is that the wealth effects from the digital economy, particularly through increased private sector employment, lead to a substantial rise in wastewater discharge. While digital technology can enhance energy efficiency and optimize production processes, it also encounters challenges such as job displacement and resistance to change. The research promotes sustainable industrial practices, incentivizes digital adoption, and mitigates negative impacts, guiding companies and investors toward improved environmental performance and responsible digital consumption while fostering public awareness of sustainability challenges. The study recommends a comprehensive strategy to address the environmental challenges posed by the digital economy. Policies include implementing population control measures to reduce overall human impact on the environment, promoting eco-friendly education to foster sustainable practices, shifting focus toward quality living overconsumption, and developing sustainable residential planning.