End-use Energy Efficiency Research Articles

Towards effective implementation of the energy efficiency first principle: a theory-based classification and analysis of policy instruments

The energy efficiency first (EE1st) principle, embedded in the European Union's (EU) recast Energy Efficiency Directive, aims to prioritise cost-effective energy efficiency solutions over new energy supply infrastructure. These solutions encompass not only end-use energy efficiency, but also, notably, demand-side flexibility. This research bridges the gap between the theoretical underpinnings of the principle and practical policy implementation. Drawing on market failure theory, it identifies an inherent bias in EU energy markets in favour of energy supply infrastructure. By highlighting the correction of market failures – from externalities to transaction costs – through targeted policy instruments, it presents a theoretical policy intervention logic for EE1st. Based on this, it offers a set of twenty-nine established and emerging policy instruments linked to specific market failures, thus providing a systematic roadmap for EE1st application. The study concludes that levelling the playing field between energy efficiency and energy supply requires a broad policy response. This extends beyond traditional energy efficiency policy of standards and public financing, and includes instruments such as electricity market design, remuneration schemes for network operators, and emissions pricing.

An Econometric Analysis of the Energy-Saving Performance of the Italian Plastic Manufacturing Sector

In a scenario characterised by mitigation concerns and calls for greater resilience in the energy sector, energy audits (EAs) emerge as an essential mean for enhancing end-use energy consumption awareness and efficiency. Such a tool allows us to assess the different energy carriers consumed in a productive sector, offering insight into existing energy efficiency improvement opportunities. This opens avenues for research to devise an econometrics-based methodology that encapsulate production sites and their environmental essentials. This paper contributes to the literature by exploiting the EAs received by the Italian National agency for New technologies, Energy, and Sustainable Economic Development (ENEA) in 2019 from the Italian plastics manufacturing sector, matched with Italian firm-based data extracted from the Analisi Informatizzata delle Aziende Italiane (Italian company information and business intelligence) (AIDA) database. In particular, we investigate how the implementation of energy efficiency measures (EEMs) is influenced by a set of contextual factors, as well as features relating to the companies and EEMs themselves. The empirical investigation focuses on the EAs submitted to ENEA in 2019, which was strategically chosen due to its unique data availability and adequacy for extensive analysis. The selection of 2019 is justified as it constitutes the second mandatory reporting period for energy audits, in contrast to the 2022 data, which are currently undergoing detailed refinement. In line with the literature, the adopted empirical approach involves the use of both the OLS and logistic regression models. Empirical results confirm the relevance of economic and financial factors in guiding the decisions surrounding the sector’s energy performance, alongside the analogous influence of the technical characteristics of the measures themselves and of the firms’ strategies. In particular, the OLS model with no fixed effects shows that a one-percent variation in investments is associated with an increase in savings performance equal to 0.63%. As for the OLS model, including fixed effects, the elasticity among the two variables concerned reaches 0.87%, while in the logistic regression, if the investment carried out by the production sites increases, the expected percentage change in the probability that the energy-saving performance is above its average is about 187.77%. Contextual factors that prove to be equally influential include the incentive mechanism considered and the traits of the geographical area in which the companies are located. Relevant policy implications derived from this analysis include the importance of reducing informational barriers about EEMs and increasing technical assistance, which can be crucial for identifying and implementing effective energy solutions.

Policy Design for Electricity Efficiency: A Case Study of Bottom-Up Energy Modeling in the Residential Sector and Buildings

Energy models play a crucial role in the domain of energy policy by serving as essential instruments for decision-making. However, a significant limitation of numerous bottom-up energy models (BUEMs) is their empirical design, which hinders their ability to effectively inform policy design. This study presents a structured framework that can be used to improve the effectiveness of behavior, understanding, and engagement measures in the development of BUEMs for enhancing energy end-use efficiency. The model selected for this case study was provided by the Mexican Commission for the Efficient Use of Energy (CONUEE), and it examines the impact of regulatory instruments on the residential sector and residential buildings. The benefits of the proposed framework were successfully demonstrated through a quantitative comparison of real energy models, using and without using the said framework, revealing the advantages of its use. The framework significantly decreases the time required for model generation in various aspects by 59.43%. The obtained results highlight the effectiveness of the framework, and it could enhance the existing knowledge in the sector.

The role of individual metering in reducing domestic hot water consumption in residential buildings: A long-term evaluation

Within the residential sector, Domestic Hot Water (DHW) production represents the highest energy-intensive end-use after the space heating. Energy consumption for DHW production in residential buildings depends not only on the efficiency of the production, distribution and supply systems, but also on the occupants’ behaviour and characteristics. For this reason, it is crucial to increase users' awareness in order to induce virtuous behaviours and reduce excessive uses of DHW. In this context, individual metering and consumption-based billing can be extremely useful and low-cost tools for reducing energy and water wastes and increasing the end-use energy efficiency in buildings. This paper is aimed at investigating the effect of individual metering systems on DHW consumptions in the residential sector. For this purpose, the operating parameters of 16 substations of a high-temperature district heating (DH) network supplying 137 multi-family buildings were monitored daily for over 14 years, during which individual DHW meters were installed and consumption-based billing was introduced. It has been found that after the installation of individual DHW meters the average daily heat consumption for DHW production decreased by 14% and that the DHW volume withdrawn by the buildings decreased by 32%. Those variations were found to be statistically significant.

Investigating pathways to a net-zero emissions building sector in the European Union: what role for the energy efficiency first principle?

European Union (EU) legislation is increasingly embracing the energy efficiency first (EE1st) principle. This principle seeks to prioritise energy efficiency measures whenever these involve lower costs to society than generators, networks and other energy supply options while achieving the same outcomes. This study contributes to the quantitative evidence on the relevance of EE1st by modelling the impact of moderate to ambitious end-use energy efficiency measures on energy supply and the associated system cost under a net-zero greenhouse gas emissions constraint by 2050. These measures focus on the EU building sector and include both building retrofits (e.g. wall insulation) and efficient products (e.g. lighting). The results indicate that implementing more ambitious energy saving measures reduces the total electricity, heat and hydrogen capacities needed to achieve the net-zero target. Reducing energy use in buildings by at least 21% between 2020 and 2050 is essential to avoid excessive energy supply costs. This requires actions that go well beyond business-as-usual trends. Reductions of around 30% could be justified on the grounds of (i) high fossil fuel prices and (ii) multiple impacts (e.g. health benefits). Overall, the outcomes provide reasonable justification for the EE1st principle. To put the principle into practice, policy actions such as doubling building renovation rates and setting higher energy efficiency targets are key.

Power Electronic Applications in Power and Energy Systems

Modern environmental policies, carbon emission reduction targets, stimulus funding for economy recovery, end-use energy efficiency, objectives for higher reliability, and service quality in energy systems are a few of the factors driving forces behind the integration of advanced control and communication technologies into energy systems [...]

Energy Efficiency First in the power sector: incentivising consumers and network companies

Energy Efficiency First (EE1st) is an important concept that, if implemented, will minimise the cost of the energy transition by exploiting the end-use energy efficiency and demand response potential of end users. The power sector is particularly relevant for the application of the EE1st principle as it needs to be decarbonised early, demand is to grow due to the electrification, and due to the increasing value on demand flexibility to maintain system balance. In this paper we show that consumers need to be considered as multiple resources for the power system and examine key regulatory tools to mobilise consumers to offer their flexibility and DSOs to use this flexibility to reduce the need for network asset investment. The pricing of energy and network is key in delivering demand-side flexibility. At the same time DSOs need to consider them in their network planning by law, and regulators are encouraged to incentivise them to integrate the consumers in network operation innovatively. The European regulation provides an appropriate framework for the implementation of the principle in the power sector. It is now the tasks of national regulators to implement them effectively.

Funding of the Energy Transition by Monetary Sovereign Countries

If global energy consumption returns to its pre-pandemic growth rate, it will be almost impossible to transition to a zero-emission or net-zero-emission energy system by 2050 in the absence of large-scale CO2 removal. Since relying on unproven technologies for CO2 removal is speculative and risky, this paper considers an energy descent scenario for reaching zero greenhouse gas emissions from energy by 2050. To drive the rapid transition from fossil fuels to carbon-free energy sources and ensure demand reduction, funding is needed urgently in order to implement four strategies: (i) technology change, i.e., implementing the growth of zero-carbon energy production, end-use energy efficiency and ‘green’ energy carriers, together with ongoing R&D on CO2 removal; (ii) reducing climate impacts; (iii) reducing energy consumption by social and behavioural changes; and (iv) improving human wellbeing while increasing social justice. Modern monetary theory explains how monetary sovereign governments, with their own fiat currencies, can create the necessary funding without financial constraints, although constraints do result from the productive capacities of their economies. The energy transition could be part-funded by a significant transfer of resources from monetary sovereign countries of the global North to the global South, financed by currency issuance.

УСТОЙЧИВОСТЬ РЕГИОНАЛЬНЫХ СИСТЕМ ПРОИЗВОДСТВА И ПОТРЕБЛЕНИЯ КАК ФАКТОР ЭКОЛОГО-ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ СБАЛАНСИРОВАННОСТИ

The article discusses the reasons for the need to ensure the sustainability of regional production and consumption systems as a factor in the ecological and economic balance of the region. Based on the essential characteristics of sustainable production and consumption, the ratio of the standard of living, resource and energy consumption of regional production and consumption systems, as well as the ecological footprint in sustainable production and consumption is formulated. Three objects of sustainable production and consumption management are identified: the efficiency of final consumption, the efficiency of energy consumption, the efficiency of resource consumption, and their calculations are given on the example of the subjects of the Northwestern Federal District of the Russian Federation. Three strategies have been formulated to improve end-use efficiency, energy efficiency, and resource efficiency: a sufficiency strategy, a resource efficiency strategy, and an eco-efficiency strategy. The main risks of underestimating the efficiency of final consumption, energy efficiency and resource consumption efficiency in the strategic planning of regional development are systematized.

Monetising Air Pollution Benefits of Clean Energy Requires Locally Specific Information

Meeting the Paris Agreement on climate change requires substantial investments in low-emissions energy and significant improvements in end-use energy efficiency. These measures can also deliver improved air quality and there is broad recognition of the health benefits of decarbonising energy. Monetising these health benefits is an important part of a robust assessment of the costs and benefits of renewable energy and energy efficiency programs (clean energy programs (CEP)) and a variety of methods have been used to estimate health benefits at national, regional, continental and global scales. Approaches, such as unit damage cost estimates and impact pathways, differ in complexity and spatial coverage and can deliver different estimates for air pollution costs/benefits. To date, the monetised health benefits of CEP in Australia have applied international and global estimates that can range from 2–229USD/tCO2 (USD 2016). Here, we calculate the current health damage costs of coal-fired power in New South Wales (NSW), Australia’s most populous state, and the health benefits of CEP. Focusing on PM2.5 pollution, we estimate the current health impacts of coal-fired power at 3.20USD/MWh, approximately 10% of the generation costs, and much lower than previous estimates. We demonstrate the need for locally specific assessment of the air pollution benefits of CEP and illustrate that without locally specific information, the relative costs/benefits of CEP may be significantly over- or understated. We estimate that, for NSW, the health benefits from CEP are 1.80USD/MWh and that the current air pollution health costs of coal-fired power in NSW represent a significant unpriced externality.

Energy use categorization with performance indicators for the food industry and a conceptual energy planning framework

Energy efficiency improvements can enhance industry’s decarbonization. A major challenge however is that the energy efficiency potential often remains untapped, due, among other things, to the lack of information on energy end-use and available energy efficiency measures. Further, this lack of information also makes the deployment of energy efficiency difficult to monitor and evaluate. The creation of a standard or taxonomy on how to categorize energy end-use for major industries would help to close this knowledge gap. This paper presents a novel taxonomy for energy end-use in the food industry, with four hierarchical levels. Further, results show that the production process utilizes two-thirds of the total energy used in the food industry and only one-third is used for support processes. Another result is that heat processing and space heating are the most intensive unit processes in terms of energy and carbon dioxide emissions for production and support processes, respectively. The paper also presents an array of energy performance indicators for the identified energy-intensive processes. The case study was carried out in the Swedish food industry. However, taxonomy and energy performance indicators can be generalized internationally. In addition to the above results, this research presents a novel concept of the energy planning framework, which helps with simple and effective planning of energy improvement activities in an industrial context. The energy planning framework can help in benchmarking, setting targets, and monitoring energy performance in the industry.

Rational Choices and Welfare Changes in Philippine Family Energy Demand: Evidence from Family Income and Expenditure Surveys

Examining rationality of expenditures and analyzing welfare changes are interrelated because welfare change analysis is predicated on “rational” (i.e., expenditure-minimizing) responses to price and income changes. This study examined Philippine family demands for (1) electricity, (2) gas and liquid fuels, (3) solid fuels, (4) food, and (5) “others”—based on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey in 2009, 2012, and 2015—and found them rational. Specifically, own-price elasticities are negative (i.e., downward-sloping demand curves). Cross-price elasticities between (1), (2), and (3) are positive (i.e., substitutes, because of similar end-uses). Cross-price elasticities of (1), (2), and (3) with (4) or (5) are mostly negative (i.e., generally complements, because (1), (2), and (3) are used with (4) or (5)). Finally, income elasticities are positive, except for (3), implying that it is consumed less as income rises which is reasonable because (3) comprises “fuelwood and charcoal” that are consumed less by higher income households. The above elasticities yield a Hicks-Slutsky substitution matrix that is symmetric and negative semi-definite—the necessary and sufficient conditions for expenditure minimization—a finding probably unprecedented in a Philippine demand study. Therefore, the above results validate computing compensating variation (CV) and equivalent variation (EV) which are changes in compensated incomes (i.e., minimum expenditures) that maintain welfare after a change in prices. During 2009-2015, the aggregate price index (i.e., CPI) increased 3.08 percent annually to which price increases of energy, with a weight of 7.4 percent, contributed 0.23 percentage points, about equal to the mid-point CV and EV estimates from 0.18 to 0.30 percent of 2009 total expenditures. This CV or EV measures welfare losses from energy price increases assuming no change in total expenditures. However, total expenditures increased annually by over 3.0 percent which was more than enough compensation for welfare losses. But improved household energy end-use efficiency by “waste” reduction—in the 2011 Household Energy Consumption Survey—fully compensated the small welfare losses of 0.18 to 0.30 percent even without increasing total expenditures or investing in efficiency improvements. Waste exists because expenditure-minimizing “buyers” could be unwittingly wasteful as “users.”

Are we moving toward an energy-efficient low-carbon economy? An input\u2013output LMDI decomposition of CO_{2} emissions for Spain and the EU28

Spain is on a path toward the decarbonization of the economy. This is mainly due to structural changes in the economy, where less energy-intensive sectors are gaining more relevance, and due to a higher use of less carbon-intensive primary energy products. This decarbonization trend is in fact more accentuated than that observed in the EU28, but there is still much to be done in order to reverse the huge increases in emissions that occurred in Spain prior to the 2007 crisis. The technical energy efficiency is improving in the Spanish economy at a higher rate than in the EU28, although all these gains are offset by the losses that the country suffers due to the inefficient use of the energy equipment. There is an installed energy infrastructure (in the energy-consumer side) in the Spanish economy that is not working at its maximum rated capacity, but which has very high fixed energy costs that reduce the observed energy efficiency and puts at risk the achievement of the emissions and energy consumption targets set by the European institutions. We arrive to these findings by developing a hybrid decomposition approach called input–output logarithmic mean Divisia index (IO-LMDI) decomposition method. With this methodological approach, we can provide an allocation diagram scheme for assigning the responsibility of primary energy requirements and carbon-dioxide emissions to the end-use sectors, including both economic and non-productive sectors. In addition, we analyze more potential influencing factors than those typically examined, we proceed in a way that reconciles energy intensity and energy efficiency metrics, and we are able to distinguish between technical and observed end-use energy efficiency taking into account potential rebound effects and other factors.

Regional low carbon development pathways for the Yangtze River Delta region in China

This study uses the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model to analyze the energy demand and carbon emissions of the Yangtze River Delta region in China from 2020 to 2050 under different energy transition scenarios. The results show that under the baseline scenario, the energy demand and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region will continue to grow; under the condition of fully tapping the energy conservation potential of the Yangtze River Delta region, the energy demand and carbon emissions in this region will achieve slow growth and even be declined in the future. In the short term, improving end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force for reducing energy demand in Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang provinces, while economic transformation is the most effective driving force for reducing energy demand in Anhui province. In the long run, optimizing the structure of the industry is the most effective way to reduce the energy demand for Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Anhui provinces, and improving the end-use energy efficiency is the most effective driving force for Shanghai. Vigorously developing non-fossil energy is an effective option for reducing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region in both the short and long term. • This study predicts the energy demand & carbon emissions of the YRD region in China. • Energy demand grows slowly or declines with enhanced end-use efficiency. • The uptake of renewable energy is essential to reducing carbon emissions. • Importing renewable electricity from other provinces is as crucial as vigorously developing local renewable electricity.

Are We Moving Towards an Energy-efficient Low-carbon Economy? An Input-output LMDI Decomposition of CO2 Emissions for Spain and the EU28

Spain is on a path towards the decarbonization of the economy. This is mainly due to structural changes in the economy, where less energy-intensive sectors are gaining more relevance, and due to a higher use of less carbon-intensive primary energy products. This decarbonization trend is in fact more accentuated than that observed in the EU28, but there is still much to be done in order to reverse the huge increases in emissions that occurred in Spain prior to the 2007 crisis. The technical energy efficiency is improving in the Spanish economy at a higher rate than in the EU28, although all these gains are offset by the losses that the country suffers due to the inefficient use of the energy equipment. There is an installed energy infrastructure (in the energy-consumer side) in the Spanish economy that is not working at its maximum rated capacity, but which has very high fixed energy costs that reduce the observed energy efficiency and puts at risk the achievement of the emissions and energy consumption targets set by the European institutions. We arrive to these findings by developing a hybrid decomposition approach called «input-output logarithmic mean Divisia index» (IO-LMDI) decomposition method. With this methodological approach, we can provide an allocation diagram scheme for assigning the responsibility of primary energy requirements and carbon-dioxide emissions to the end-use sectors, including both economic and non-productive sectors. In addition, we analyze more potential influencing factors than those typically examined, we proceed in a way that reconciles energy intensity and energy efficiency metrics, and we are able to distinguish between technical and observed end-use energy efficiency taking into account potential rebound effects and other factors.

Effects on primary energy use, greenhouse gas emissions and related costs from improving energy end-use efficiency in the electrolysis in primary aluminium production

Primary aluminium production is energy- and GHG-intensive in which electrolysis is by far the most energy- and GHG-intensive process. This paper’s aim is to study the effects on (1) primary energy use, (2) GHG emissions and (3) energy and CO2 costs when energy end-use efficiency measures are implemented in the electrolysis. Significant savings in final and primary energy use, GHG emissions and energy and CO2 costs can be achieved by implementing the studied measures. Vertical electrode cells and the combination of inert anodes and wettable cathodes are among the measures with the highest savings in all three areas (primary energy use, GHG emissions and energy and CO2 costs). Direct carbothermic reduction is one of the measures with the highest savings in primary energy use and energy and CO2 costs. For GHG emissions, direct carbothermic reduction is the more beneficial choice in regions with a high proportion of coal power, while inert anodes are the more beneficial choice in regions with a high proportion of low-carbon electricity. Although a company potentially can save more money by implementing the direct carbothermic reduction, the company should consider implementing the vertical electrode cells together with other energy-saving technologies since this would yield the largest GHG emission savings while providing similar cost savings as the direct carbothermic reduction. It may be necessary to impose a price on GHG emissions in order to make inert anodes cost-effective on their own, although further evaluations are needed in this regard. There is a potential to achieve carbon-neutrality in the reduction of aluminium oxide to pure aluminium.

A multiobjective optimization approach to support end-use energy efficiency policy design – the case-study of India

We combine the use of the Economic Input-Output Lifecycle assessment with multiobjective interval portfolio theory to arrive at two model formulations which can support public decision-makers on the design of programs to promote the investment on energy efficient technologies. The objective functions considered in each model are the maximization of the savings to investment ratio and the maximization of the minimum deviation of greenhouse gas avoided emissions/energy savings of the portfolio over its lifetime from the expected greenhouse gas emitted/energy embodied in the manufacture of its components, as a proxy of return and risk minimization, respectively. The first and second formulations might be more suitable for countries with higher and lower emission factors regarding their electricity mix, respectively. In order to ensure a certain diversification level of the technologies to be subsidized, constraints are imposed on the maximal amount assigned to the energy efficient technologies under consideration, also assuring a given energy payback time/greenhouse gas payback time. Finally, conservative (leading to a lower number of subsidized devices), aggressive (leading to a higher number of subsidized devices) and combined strategies are taken into consideration in the computation of the efficient portfolio solutions. Keywords: Multiobjective portfolio theory, Interval Programming, Energy efficient technologies, Economic Input-Output Lifecycle Assessment, Energy payback time, Greenhouse gas payback time

Combined effects of policies to increase energy efficiency and distributed solar generation: A case study of the Carolinas

This paper estimates changes in the cost of electricity, reliability, and atmospheric emissions resulting from large penetration of residential roof-top Photovoltaic (PV) and end-use energy efficiency (EE) within the service areas of Duke Energy in the Carolinas, where nuclear power plants account for almost 50% of electricity generation.Results show that 8.7–10.2% of 2015 electricity consumption could have been avoided by upgrading all residential units to comply with Energy Star standards. The range for this estimate stems from uncertainty on whether, under business-as-usual conditions, most buildings comply with the 1978 or the 1996 energy building codes. These energy savings would have implied a reduction of 3–4% in the costs of running the current power generation fleet and a 9–11% reduction in CO2 emissions. If this level of EE had been paired with the installation of roof-top PV providing 6.1–6.4% of the total electricity generated, the costs of operating the system would have been reduced by 8.6–9.6% and CO2 emissions would have been 24–26% lower. This level of roof-top PV penetration is the maximum permissible under this EE scenario due to the reductions it causes to daily peak electricity consumption and the limited operational flexibility of the nuclear plants.

The driving factors of energy-related CO2 emission growth in Malaysia: The LMDI decomposition method based on energy allocation analysis

Malaysia is a typical Southeast Asian country that is a dynamic part of the global growth of energy-related CO2 (carbon dioxide) emissions, but little research exists on the driving factors of its energy-related CO2 emission growth. Most of the related publications have considered only the effect of the change of economic indicators using econometric methods, and seldom have they considered the technical driving factors from the perspective of energy systems. In this study, a methodology called the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition method based on energy allocation analysis was applied to define the contributions of technical driving factors related to the growth of CO2 emissions in Malaysia during the periods 1978–1990, 1990–2002, and 2002–2014. The technical driving factors include end-use energy structure, electricity generation efficiency, and fuel-mix in electricity generation. The results indicate that, although the population, GDP per capita and energy intensity are still the main driving factors influencing the changes of energy-related CO2 emissions in Malaysia, the influence of technical driving factors is increasing from in 1978–2014. The increasing ratio of electricity in the end-use stage and the structural changes of fuel-mix in electricity generation contribute to energy-related CO2 emission growth. Meanwhile, the increasing end-use energy efficiency and electricity supply efficiency effectively slow down CO2 emissions in Malaysia. Compared with previous publications, the technical driving factors considered in this study can provide a more detailed explanation for the interaction between energy, the economy, and CO2 emissions. On the basis of an overview of Malaysia's existing policies, policy recommendations for further control of energy-related CO2 emissions in Malaysia that mainly focus on these technical factors were proposed.

Effects of population, urbanization, household size, and income on electric appliance adoption in the Chinese residential sector towards 2050

We present an analytical framework to project adoption of household electric appliances under a number of scenarios with different levels of population, urbanization, household size, and per-capita income. This framework enables us to estimate the saturation (i.e., number of a particular electric appliance per household) and the extent of adoption (total number of a particular electric appliance owned in each province), and to assess the impact of each driver. We focus on six types of appliances: personal computer, air conditioner, microwave oven, refrigerator, washing machine and television, and project their adoption during the 2015–2050 period. The projections are conducted for forty-five scenarios that combine five levels of population growth, three levels of per-capita gross domestic product (GDP) and income growth, and three levels of change in household size. We find that, among the six appliances investigated, ownership of personal computers and air conditioning equipment will grow the most, and that the current differences in appliance saturation among provinces and between urban and rural regions will almost disappear by 2050. However, most of the appliances will be owned in urban centers in Eastern China, where the majority of the population will be concentrated. Income growth, combined with urbanization and a reduction in household sizes, increases the total number of appliances, while a reduction in population decreases the total number of appliances. The results can be used as key inputs for long-term electricity system planning and to explore the potential effects of policies to support End-Use Energy Efficiency and Demand Side Response.