Probability Of Employment Research Articles

Building bridges to female - and youth-inclusive employment: the influence of cash transfers for ex-combatants

ABSTRACT The ability of ex-combatants to engage in sustainable income-generating activities is a central pillar of successful demobilization, disarmament, and reintegration processes, even though full reintegration also requires progress in social, political, and psychological dimensions. However, there is limited quantitative evidence on which strategies effectively support economic reintegration. In 2011, Colombia introduced a one-time cash transfer aimed at helping ex-combatants access employment or start a business. Using administrative and survey data on labor market outcomes and socio-economic characteristics, we evaluate the impact of this policy using the Propensity Score Matching method. We find that the cash transfer significantly increases the probability of employment. The effect is particularly strong among young and female ex-combatants, highlighting the need for targeted support for these groups. Our findings underscore the positive role that financial assistance can play in reintegration efforts and offer useful insights for the design of future DDR programs.

From homemakers to breadwinners? How mandatory kindergarten affects maternal labour market outcomes

The majority of Swiss children attend mandatory and cost-free kindergarten at age four. We examine the effect of this policy on maternal labour market outcomes. Using administrative data from Switzerland, we exploit the birthday cut-off for kindergarten entry in the same or in the following year and apply a non-parametric regression discontinuity design (RDD). We find that mandatory kindergarten has a statistically significant positive effect on the labour market attachment of previously non-employed mothers, increasing their employment probability by 4 percentage points. In contrast, there are no significant effects on other groups or in the total sample of mothers.

Time to Graduate Level Employment for New Graduates in the United Kingdom

ABSTRACTThis paper estimates the time to graduate employment of new graduates from universities in the United Kingdom. Using data from the UK Graduate Outcomes Survey, survival functions are estimated to identify differences in time to graduate employment among different groups of graduates, stratified by institution. Differences in survival functions are confirmed across the different categories of university in the United Kingdom, with Russell Group universities holding a greater probability of employment at each time interval. A Cox Proportional Hazard model is estimated to identify the determinants of the differences in the time to graduate employment, with constant effects associated with secondary school performance, parental degree status, private school status and ethnicity. The remaining effects were shown to be time varying, including institution, degree classification and degree subject, with Russell Group graduates, graduates with high degree classifications and graduates of STEM displaying a persistent advantage in the early career labour market.

Impact of hospital visits for three major diseases and chronic diseases on working decisions, working status, and working hours in Japan

PurposeThis study investigates the impacts of three major diseases (stroke, myocardial infarction, cancer) and three chronic diseases (diabetes, dyslipidemia, and hypertension) on working decisions, working status, and working hours in Japan. We focus on hospital visits for these diseases, estimating the effects of individuals’ own diseases and spousal diseases on respondents’ working conditions by gender.MethodsWe use propensity score matching (PSM) for the estimations to control for causality. The main estimations used are a logistic regression for the working decision function, a multinomial logit model for working status, and ordinary least squares (OLS) for working hours.ResultsThe results confirm that these diseases do not necessarily have a uniformly negative effect on individuals’ working decisions, working status, and working hours. That is, men are more likely to retain regular employment to take advantage of insurance coverage regardless of their own or their wife’s disease, whereas women are more likely to handle the situation by choosing to be workless during the span of their own or their husband’s condition.ImplicationThe Japanese insurance system allows both married men and women to access companies’ medical insurance if one of them continues to work full-time, and comparative advantages in the labor market could lead to an increase in the probability of regular employment for husbands. Notably, typical gender divisions in the contexts of work and life also clearly distinguish the roles of men and women who need to visit hospitals.

From Classroom to Workplace: The Combined Effects of Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Skills on Youth Labor Market Outcomes in Kenya

The evolving labor environment underscores the critical role of cognitive and non-cognitive (soft) skills in fostering workforce adaptability and enhancing labor market outcomes. This study investigates the combined influence of these skills on the probability of employment, focusing on the Kenyan labor market, where high youth unemployment and job market mismatches persist despite government interventions and education sector reforms. Traditionally, emphasis has been placed on cognitive skills, with limited integration of non-cognitive skills into educational curricula, exacerbating the disconnect between youth competencies and market demands. Using binary logistic regression, this study evaluates factors influencing youth employment, highlighting the complementarity of cognitive and non-cognitive skills. Findings reveal that individuals possessing a blend of these skills have higher employment prospects, with notable improvements for young women possessing agreeableness and digital literacy. Additionally, factors such as marital status and higher education levels positively influence employability. These results underscore the equal importance of personality traits and cognitive abilities in labor market success. Policymakers are urged to prioritize curriculum reforms that integrate non-cognitive skill development and encourage employers to include assessments of these skills in hiring practices to address persistent labor market mismatches.

Factors impacting employment outcomes for persons with spinal cord injury in South Korea.

Cross-sectional survey. To identify the factors determining the employment of individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) living in South Korea, which shows a lower-than-average employment rate in international comparative studies, and to examine the potential importance for policy. Community of patients with SCI who are members of the Korea Spinal Cord Injury Association (KSCIA). A survey involving 200 members of the KSCIA was conducted. In the analysis, we included 177 individuals aged 15-64 years and were at least 2 years post-injury at the time of the survey. Descriptive statistics were calculated and logistic regression was applied to examine the association between 11 variables and employment outcomes. A higher "education level" and participation in "vocational rehabilitation services" were positively associated with employment for individuals with SCI. By contrast, "receiving welfare benefits" was negatively associated with employment probability. The analysis, which categorized employment predictors into human capital, injury, and environmental models, showed no associations for factors in the Injury Model but indicated positive associations for education in the Human Capital Model and for receiving compensation in the form of welfare benefits and participation in vocational rehabilitation services in the Environment Model. Among the three models, the Environment Model had the greatest explanatory power. This suggests that in Korea, policy interventions targeting modifiable environmental factors hold significant potential to improve employment outcomes for individuals with SCI.

EFFECTS OF FIELD OF EDUCATION ON LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES: THE CASE OF TÜRKİYE

This study explores the influence of higher education fields on labor market outcomes in Türkiye, addressing a critical gap in the literature. Utilizing data from Household Labor Force Survey from 2009 to 2023, the analysis examines how field-specific education impacts employment probabilities, wage disparities, and gender differences. The findings reveal significant variations across disciplines, with science, technology, health, and law graduates experiencing higher employment rates and earnings compared to humanities and arts graduates. Gender disparities persist, with women disproportionately selecting lower-paying fields and facing barriers in traditionally male-dominated sectors. The results highlight the interplay between educational specialization, societal norms, and labor market structures. This research underscores the need for targeted policies to align educational outputs with labor market demands, reduce skill mismatches, and promote gender equity. These findings contribute valuable insights for policymakers and educators aiming to optimize the socio-economic returns of higher education in Türkiye.

The short-term effects of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes of recent immigrants to Canada

PurposeGiven these potential negative consequences, it is important to determine how the unanticipated Covid shock affected labour market outcomes of recent immigrants, and whether it had a disproportionately negative effect relative to the Canadian-born, especially for immigrants in the low-level occupations and in the industries that are hard hit by the pandemic. That is the purpose of this analysis and is a main contribution to the literature.Design/methodology/approachWe use the LFS data and a conventional Difference-in-Difference (DiD) equation to estimate the differential effects of the COVID-19 lock-down on recent immigrants’ labour market outcomes including employment, actual hours of work and wages, compared to the comparable Canadian-born.FindingsOur DiD analysis indicates that Covid-19 had a disproportionately adverse effect on the employment of recent immigrants relative to the Canadian-born and this was especially the case in lower-level occupations and in industries hard hit by the pandemic. The effects of Covid on hours worked for those who remained employed were modest as were the differential effects for recent immigrants. Covid was associated with higher wages for recent immigrants who remain employed relative to their Canadian-born counterparts, and this is especially the case for recent immigrants in lower-level occupations and hard-hit industries.Research limitations/implicationsThe substantial adverse effect of Covid on the employment of recent immigrants, both absolutely and relative to their Canadian-born counterparts, has important implications for the assimilation of immigrants into the Canadian labour market. The fact that this adverse effect is disproportionately felt by recent immigrants in lower-level occupations has equity implications. The fact that the adverse effect is disproportionately felt by recent immigrants in industries hard-hit by the pandemic highlights the double whammy of being in hard-hit sectors with above-average reductions in their employment rate and having their employment probabilities disproportionately reduced in those sectors.Practical implicationsIn addition to recognizing foreign skills, enhancing the skills of recent immigrants can also increase their employability and earnings. Given the growth of the knowledge economy such important skills include core ones in such areas as communication, socio-emotional, digital and basic literacy and numeracy skills, as well as soft skills such as those related to interpersonal relationships, leadership, communication, conflict resolution, teamwork and time management. Assessing the skills of recent immigrants and providing timely and local labour market information (LMI) as well as mentoring, training and information on Canadian workplace cultural norms can also help match the skills of recent immigrants with employer needs.Social implicationsDisruption in the labour market assimilation of immigrants can inhibit them from earning their living and contributing to tax revenues and lead them to “have-nots” in receipt of transfer payments. Dependency on transfer payments can foster backlashes and the polarization and xenophobia associated with immigrants. Negative labour market experiences for immigrants can contribute to long-lasting downward career mobility and talent waste that can inhibit the ability of Canada to compete for international talent. It can lead to a legacy of longer run even intergenerational negative effects in various dimensions. Clearly this issue merits policy attention.Originality/valueOur study utilizes DiD analysis to provide causal estimates of the differential impact of Covid-19 on three outcomes: employment, hours and hourly wages. Comparisons are made for recent immigrants relative to comparable Canadian-born persons prior to the pandemic, and the differential effect of the pandemic on recent immigrants relative to the Canadian-born. A main contribution to the literature is that it also does the comparisons in a separate intersectional fashion for individuals who are in lower-level and higher-level occupations as well as in industries that are low-hit and hard-hit by the pandemic.

The relationship between individual employment probabilities and accessibility to matching jobs: A study of the Netherlands

The relationship between individual employment probabilities and accessibility to matching jobs: A study of the Netherlands

Gendered Analysis of the Effect of Displacement on Labor Market Outcomes: A Focus on Nairobi County, Kenya

This study investigates how socio-economic characteristics, migration status, and country of origin influence labor market outcomes in Nairobi County, Kenya. By estimating logit and Tobit models using data from the Kenya Refugee and Host Household Survey (KRHHS), we find that age is positively associated with the likelihood of being employed and higher incomes, but this relationship diminishes beyond a certain point. Gender disparities are pronounced, with women being less likely to be employed and generally earning less than men. Larger households are associated with lower employment probabilities, reflecting greater domestic responsibilities for household heads. Local community members are more likely to be employed and earn more than refugees, who face substantial labor market barriers such as legal restrictions and lack of social networks. Having a university education is associated with being employed with higher earnings, compared to workers with either primary or secondary education. Having never been married is positively associated with being employed. Employment and income vary significantly by country of origin, highlighting the complex interplay between integration and discrimination factors in local communities. These findings underscore the need to address educational and gender inequalities that prevail between refugees and local communities.

Do socio-demographic characteristics affect graduates’ employment status?

Despite having a demographic dividend, the unemployment rate is soaring in Bangladesh, posing a great challenge for the nation. This perplexing situation demands knowledge of socio-demographic factors that may affect the employment status among graduates. Thus, this study aims to examine the impact of socio-demographic factors, such as gender, age, marital status, field of study, and family financial support on employment status. To achieve this objective, a questionnaire survey was conducted. Through the survey, data were collected from 415 respondents and analyzed using a Forward Likelihood Ratio binary logistic regression. The findings revealed that age, marital status, field of study, and financial support are crucial predictors that affect the probability of employment among graduates, whereas gender does not influence the probability of getting employed. The insights of the current study will assist policymakers in reaping the demographic dividend to reduce graduate unemployment by incorporating sociodemographic characteristics in Bangladesh’s policymaking for graduates. This study will help the government meet its commitment to development goals by identifying the basic socio-demographic elements that influence graduates’ employment status.

Unveiling social disparities in employment and wages: a labour market segmentation analysis of India’s IT industry

PurposeThis study investigates the caste-based disparities in employment probabilities and wage earnings within India’s rapidly growing IT industry, using insights from the labour market segmentation theory. Our theoretical conceptualization attempts to pin down the inaccessibility of marginalised sections of the population to the high productivity job market.Design/methodology/approachWe rely on the National Sample Survey rounds of 2011–2012 and 2020–2021 to estimate employment probabilities and wage differentials using linear and logic regression models, controlling for educational attainments and other important determinants of individual’s job market outcomes.FindingsThe results indicate a significant −1.24 odds differential, even after considering education and other control variables. Notably, this disparity has increased since 2011–2012, with lower caste graduate pass-outs facing a mere 13% probability of IT sector employment compared to their upper caste counterparts at 41%. Further, our findings expose gender and rural-urban differentials, highlighting the vulnerability faced by females and individuals from rural areas. The wage analysis shows a 24% and a 22% earning gap for SCs and OBCs, respectively, which remain statistically significant even after controlling for educational attainments and employment arrangements.Originality/valueThis is first micro-level study that counters Indian IT sector’s claim of “castelessness” and “pro-merit”, identifying significant presence of labour market segmentation in the sector. The caste-based labour market segmentation has far-reaching consequences as it can perpetuate income inequalities and hurt industrial efficiency, stifling economic growth in the long-run. Concerted policy responses are imperative to eliminate structural barriers, ensuring equitable access to quality education and employment opportunities for marginalized sections of the society.

Munkapiaci aktivitás a nyugdíjkorhatáron túl

e use individual-level administrative data from Hungary to examine labour market activity beyond retirement age. We present employment rates for individuals beyond retirement age separately for women and men. We examine how the probability of employment after retirement age is related to individual characteristics. Our study shows that employment beyond retirement age is relatively common and strongly related to occupation, sector, earnings, place of residence, and, especially for women, health status.

Research on the Economic Effects of Childcare Costs on Womens Employment Decisions

The dynamics of female labor force participation is a critical factor in promoting economic sustainability. This study examines the impact of childcare costs on womens employment decisions, utilizing a comprehensive dataset encompassing 753 observations from the U.S. Womens Labor Force Participation Database. By employing a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model with interaction terms, this paper investigates various factors, including age, income, education level, number of children, and their influence on employment outcomes. The results indicate significant negative impacts of childcare costs on employment probabilities, particularly among mothers with young children, highlighting a critical barrier to labor market entry. The findings support the need for targeted policy interventions that reduce childcare costs and promote greater economic stability and gender equality in the labor force. By offering empirical evidence on the quantifiable impact of childcare expenses, this research contributes valuable suggestions to enhance womens labor market participation through supportive childcare initiatives and flexible work policies.

ANALYZING THE INFLUENCE OF MIDLIFE EMPLOYMENT TRAJECTORIES ON COGNITIVE AGING IN CHILE

Abstract As the global population ages, understanding the factors contributing to healthy aging becomes increasingly crucial. This paper delves into the relationship between mid-life employment trajectories and later-life cognition, utilizing a Chilean longitudinal dataset. Employing the Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM), distinct employment trajectories for males and females between 1980 and 2016 are estimated. Subsequently, we link these trajectories to cognitive function scores to investigate the associations between individual trajectories and cognitive function in later life. Preliminary findings reveal significant associations between certain cognitive domains and labor force participation trajectories. We find four distinct labor force participation trajectories for men and women. Results show that men that have a high probability of continued employment demonstrate better cognitive outcomes, including orientation, memory, attention, and executive function. For women, a higher likelihood of working during between ages 30 to 60 correlates with improved performance in delayed memory, attention, and executive function. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance cognitive well-being among older adults.

ANALYZING THE INFLUENCE OF MIDLIFE EMPLOYMENT TRAJECTORIES ON COGNITIVE AGING IN CHILE

Abstract As the global population ages, understanding the factors contributing to healthy aging becomes increasingly crucial. This paper delves into the relationship between mid-life employment trajectories and later-life cognition, utilizing a Chilean longitudinal dataset. Employing the Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM), distinct employment trajectories for males and females between 1980 and 2016 are estimated. Subsequently, we link these trajectories to cognitive function scores to investigate the associations between individual trajectories and cognitive function in later life. Preliminary findings reveal significant associations between certain cognitive domains and labor force participation trajectories. We find four distinct labor force participation trajectories for men and women. Results show that men that have a high probability of continued employment demonstrate better cognitive outcomes, including orientation, memory, attention, and executive function. For women, a higher likelihood of working during between ages 30 to 60 correlates with improved performance in delayed memory, attention, and executive function. These results provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners seeking to enhance cognitive well-being among older adults.

Full-Time Employment: An Empirical Study of the Impact of Internet Use in Indonesia

The impact of digital transformation era by utilizing the internet has achieved job market outcomes. This study aims to analyze full-time employment probability as a result of using the internet in his work. The data used 8,436 samples from the February 2023 National Labor Force Survey microdl.hilata sorted by formal sector employment. With the analysis technique of the logistic binary regression model, several dominant determinants of the probability to work full-time were obtained. The use of the internet for promotion and marketplace affects labor market outcomes measured by working hours. Probability for workers as full-time workers by using these two things becomes greater. This study also shows that several economic variables such as income, pension security and attending training significantly have a greater effect on workers’ chances of working full-time (>40 h/week). In addition, the influence of demographic variables in the form of age, marital status and domicile of workers in Sumatra provides greater probability for full working hours.

Integracja ekonomiczna imigrantów z Ukrainy w Polsce w kontekście trendów demograficznych

Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014 and then in 2022 was associated with an influx of immigrants to Poland, unprecedented in recent history, most of whom found employment in Poland relatively quickly. The article aims to examine the factors influencing employment and declarations regarding the intention to remain in Poland permanently among various groups of immigrants from Ukraine remaining in Poland. Groups of men and women were analysed, as well as the division into refugees (forced immigrants) related to the full-scale war that began in 2022 and previous economic immigrants. It has been confirmed tha among all immigrants a very good knowledge of the Polish language has a positive impact on employment and declarations of settlement in Poland. However, the analyses confirm that the same factors often have different impacts on people belonging to different analysed groups. For example, knowledge of the Polish language was essential for finding work for female refugees. Still, it was not important to take up work by voluntary immigrants who arrived before the war. No negative impact of child benefits on the employment of forced immigrants was found, but in the case of previous immigrants, these benefits were associated with a significantly lower probability of employment. The differences in motivations of different groups of Ukrainian immigrants in Poland are important from the point of view of policies facilitating the economic integration of immigrants in Poland. They are also important for predicting the propensity for settlement migration in Poland or potential returns to Ukraine in the future

Place-Based Policies and Migration: Evidence from India

Abstract Place-based policies may increase migration into eligible areas and, hence, affect their intended aim of reducing economic disparities. Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits an Indian place-based tax-exemption policy, this paper finds that there was an increase in migration for job-related reasons, mainly driven by job transfers. While firm entry and hiring increased in the treated districts, overall employment probability and wages did not change for the average initial resident, although there is some evidence of sectoral shifts in employment. Furthermore, the cost of housing increased in the treated districts. These results provide empirical evidence for the implications of labor mobility for place-based policies.

The long-term effects of cash transfer programmes on young adults' mental health: a quasi-experimental study of Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa.

Poverty is associated with poorer mental health in early adulthood. Cash transfers (CTs) have been shown to improve child health and education outcomes, but it is unclear whether these effects may translate into better mental health outcomes as children reach young adulthood. Using a quasi-experimental approach that exploits variation across countries in the timing of national CT programme introduction, we examine whether longer exposure to CTs during childhood (0-17 years) reduces depressive symptoms in early adulthood (18-30 years). Based on harmonized data from Colombia, Mexico, and South Africa (N = 14 431), we applied logistic regression models with country and birth-cohort fixed effects to estimate the impact of cumulative years of CT exposure on mental health, educational attainment, and employment outcomes. Our findings indicate that each additional year of CT exposure during childhood is associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of serious depressive symptoms in early adulthood [odds ratio (OR) = 0.96, 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 0.93, 0.98]. We find no consistent effect of years of exposure on completion of secondary school (OR = 1.01, 95% CIs: 0.99, 1.03) and a negative effect on the probability of employment in early adulthood (OR = 0.90, 95% CIs: 0.88, 0.91). These results suggest that longer exposure to CTs may contribute to modest but meaningful reductions in population-level depressive symptoms during early adulthood.