The flexibility dilemma―managing cost and emissions in a fossil fuel-dominated power sector under increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources

Mission accomplished? A post-assessment of EU ETS impact on power sector emissions reduction

Exploring transition pathways to net-zero emissions in China's power sector under different policy portfolios

Implications of the power sector emissions on the deep decarbonisation of Nigeria: evaluating long-term model based scenarios

Production of electricity by burning fossil fuels like natural gas to generate electricity releases carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere. The combustion process produces CO2, which is trapped to lead to global warming and climate change. Different fossil fuels release different amounts of CO2 based on carbon content and the amount of energy released. This paper gives techno-economic analysis of photovoltaic (PV) solar systems as a mitigation option at the grand scale, as well as data-intensive analysis of CO2 emissions in Bahrain's fossil fuel-dominated power sector. One observation of major importance is that there is a net abatement of 1.2 ± 0.15 metric tons CO2/MWh and levelized cost savings of 27% if PV deployment is combined with innovative storage for replacing 38-42% of conventional generation. Technical feasibility of PV is supported by cross-validation of the records of past emissions using quadratic multinomial regression, which yields strong predictive correlations (*p* < 0.05, R2 = 0.89). The evidence indicates that policymakers enhance the application of PV in Gulf Cooperation Council member states while advancing socioeconomic goals in national visions (e.g., Bahrain's Vision 2030) and climate goals in the Paris Agreement. Two strategic scenarios were proposed and evaluated in this study: the first is based on Bahrain Vision 2030, and the second is based on Bahrain Vision 2050. Scenario-based projections extract a feasible roadmap for decarbonization that aims at 2060 as the year to produce carbon-neutral electricity and 45% of renewable energy integration by 2030. Finally, the second scenario will help Bahrain by the year 2060 to reach net-zero emissions. Received: 11 July 2025 | Revised: 24 September 2025 | Accepted: 29 September 2025 Conflicts of Interest The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest to this work. Data Availability Statement Data available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. Author Contribution Statement Isa S. Qamber: Conceptualization, Methodology, Validation, Formal analysis, Resources, Writing - original draft, Writing - review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration. Salwa Baserrah: Writing - review & editing, Visualization, Supervision, Project administration.

Factors affecting CO2 emissions in the global power sector: a spatial-temporal analysis

This study investigates the driving factors of carbon emissions in Thailand's power sector from 2002 to 2022 using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method. The objective is to provide a systematic and quantitative assessment of how socioeconomic and technological developments have influenced emission dynamics. The results indicate that total emissions rose from approximately 62 Mt in 2002 to a peak of 90 Mt in 2013, before stabilizing and slightly declining in recent years, reflecting improvements in efficiency and structural transformation. Economic growth was the largest contributor, adding a cumulative 43.83 Mt, followed by population growth (9.52 Mt). In contrast, structural transformation-primarily the gradual substitution of fuel oil with natural gas-reduced emissions by about 21.81 Mt, while enhanced efficiency in coal consumption contributed an additional 20.86 Mt reduction. Electricity intensity exerted a modest positive effect (4.39 Mt), and the influence of the carbon emission factor was minimal (0.61 Mt). The findings suggest that Thailand's power sector has achieved relative decoupling between economic growth and emissions, though absolute decoupling has yet to occur. The analysis underscores the critical importance of accelerating renewable energy deployment and strengthening energy efficiency initiatives to meet Thailand's carbon neutrality target by 2050 and its net-zero emissions goal by 2065. This study fills a gap in the existing literature by providing the first multi-factor decomposition analysis of Thailand's power sector emissions, offering valuable empirical insights and policy implications for sustainable energy transitions in developing economies.

We model the effect of plug-in electric vehicle (EV) adoption on U.S. power system generator capacity investment, operations, and emissions through 2050 by estimating power systems outcomes under a range of EV adoption trajectory scenarios. Our EV adoption scenarios are informed by 1) an Energy Information Administration scenario with no policy intervention, 2) EV growth expected under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), 3) a Biden Administration 50% EV sales target by 2030, 4) the Environmental Protection Agency's projections under vehicle emissions standards, and 5) the International Energy Agency's roadmap to Net Zero by 2050. We find across these scenarios that increasing EV adoption induces investment in new wind, solar, storage, and natural gas capacity, affecting power generation mix and emissions. The net effect of increasing EV adoption beyond our IRA base case is to increase power sector emissions by about 5 mtCO2eq per EV-year in 2026 (comparable to displaced gasoline vehicle combustion emissions), but this effect rapidly drops to annual levels below 1 mtCO2eq per EV-year by 2032 and continues below this level through 2050. Consequential effects of EV adoption vary regionally, with most regions primarily increasing wind or solar capacity and some regions primarily increasing natural gas capacity, even in 2050. Our national emissions estimates per EV-year are relatively robust to the level of EV adoption beyond our baseline and to variation in assumptions about power systems, EV behavior, and policy.

This study utilises the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) in conjunction with the Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) framework to investigate Thailand’s energy transition, which is designed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. Two scenarios have been devised to evaluate the long-term trade-offs among energy, water, and land systems. Data were sourced from esteemed international organisations (e.g., the IEA, FAO, and OECD) and national agencies and organised into a tailored OSeMOSYS Starter Data Kit for Thailand, comprising a baseline and a carbon neutral trajectory. The baseline scenario, primarily reliant on fossil fuels, is projected to generate annual CO2 emissions exceeding 400 million tons and water consumption surpassing 85 billion cubic meters by 2025. By the mid-century, the carbon neutral scenario will have approximately 40% lower water use and a 90% reduction in power sector emissions. Under the carbon neutral path, renewable energy takes the front stage; the share of renewable electricity goes from under 20% in the baseline scenario to almost 80% by 2050. This transition and large reforestation initiatives call for consistent investment in solar energy (solar energy expenditures exceeding 20 billion USD annually by 2025). Still, it provides notable co-benefits, including greater resource sustainability and better alignment with international climate targets. The results provide strategic insights aligned with Thailand’s National Energy Plan (NEP) and offer modelling evidence toward achieving international climate goals under COP29.

ABSTRACT The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) was passed by an original collection of 10 northeastern states and is the first cap-and-trade policy in the United States to specifically target carbon dioxide emissions from the electricity sector. We exploit the introduction of this policy and subsequent tightening of the carbon cap to assess how carbon dioxide emissions have changed within RGGI states while also re-evaluating emissions leakages that may have occurred. Using plant-level data and several identification strategies, we find that there are reductions in emissions from coal-fired plants in RGGI states, but there is mixed evidence at natural gas-fired plants within the RGGI. We show that the emissions cap reduction enacted in 2014 is where the policy began to have more significant impacts on emissions, and that prior work that found emissions leakage may suffer from bias. These conclusions are strongest with careful evaluation of control states since spillover effects of the policy to non-RGGI states are possible within the Eastern Interconnection.

The concept of Industry 5.0 emerges as a catalyst for accelerating sustainable development across various economic sectors. This article is devoted to the development of a framework for modeling the decarbonization of the economy based on energy innovation in the context of Industry 5.0 and sustainable development. The purpose of the article is to identify the stimulating factors for increasing the level of decarbonization, which corresponds to the Global Sustainable Development Goals adopted by the UN in 2015, especially Goal 7 Affordable and Clean Energy, Goal 9 Industry, Innovation, and Infrastructure, Goal 13 Climate Action and Goal 17 Partnerships for the Goals. Approaches to the formation of Industry 5.0 indicators, taking into account indicators of sustainable development and decarbonization of the economy, in particular, the Energy Transition Index, Global Innovation Energy Index, Digital Economy and Society Index, World Energy Trilemma Index, are investigated. The choice of Industry 5.0 components with indicators for the assessment of decarbonization, taking into account the components of sustainability, resilience and human-centricity, is justified. These include Energy intensity level of primary energy; Fossil CO2 Emissions in Power Sector; Patents in Climate change mitigation technology; Research and development expenditure; Industry (including construction), value added (% of GDP); Information and communication technologies (ICTs); Knowledge workers; Human capital and research. A cluster analysis of the level of decarbonization for the 26 countries selected for the study from Europe, Asia and North America is carried out. Taking into account the factors studied, the factors influencing the level of decarbonization are identified based on multivariate regression modelling. Recommendations on accelerating the decarbonization of the economy are provided, taking into account the experience of leading countries.

A burden-sharing model shaping the embodied carbon emission and considering regions' efforts to reduce emissions in China's power sector

The objective of the work was to analyse the environmental effects of the development of the electric car fleet in Poland on air pollution. Three distinct scenarios for the growth of electromobility were analysed, considering spatial distribution and estimating emissions in both the transport and energy production sectors. Based on the modelling results from GEM-AQ model, the differences in average annual gaseous pollutants concentrations were calculated and compared with the baseline scenario in 2015. In the case of NO2 and SO2, the largest increases occurred around power plants. For CO, a very small reduction over most of the country was achieved in all scenarios (up to - 0.25%). Ozone background concentrations mainly decreased compared to 2015 across the country by -2%. The alternative scenario, which does not assume the anticipated constant growth in electricity demand, is characterized by the reduction of concentrations background for NOSO2 (up to 1.5%) and CO (up to -0.25%), a smaller increase of SO2 concentrations (up to 5%) and on average higher ozone background. Alternative scenario revealed the most differences, with power sector emissions and constant electricity demand growth overshadowing the impact of electric vehicle fleet changes on air pollution.

Abstract Integrating the power systems between member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) can facilitate economic growth for the region and enable businesses to cost-effectively procure reliable, clean electricity. As corporations strengthen their clean energy commitments, the grid becomes an important enabler of power sector emissions reductions as well as economic development. This paper offers perspectives from the Asia Clean Energy Coalition (ACEC) on the importance of renewing the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) on the ASEAN Power Grid, focusing on accelerated implementation to expand multilateral power trade and cross-border grid interconnections. ACEC consists of clean energy buyers, sellers, and financiers that can drive economic growth. It supports strengthening the ASEAN Power Grid MOU to recognise the importance of holistic regional grid planning, prioritising interconnectors that scale up clean energy, harmonising regulatory and technical frameworks, and making data accessible to facilitate multilateral power trade and clean energy tracking.

Influence of extreme 2022 heatwave on megacities' anthropogenic CO2 emissions in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River

This study investigates the physical and mechanical properties of 12 biomass wood pellet samples utilised in a power generation, focusing on their implications for energy release and carbon emissions during combustion. Through comprehensive analysis involving bulk density measurements, compression tests, moisture analysis, calorimetry and controlled burning experiments, significant correlations among key properties are identified. Pellets with densities above 1100 kg/m3 demonstrate superior mechanical durability and strength, achieving maximum strengths of 0.6 to 0.8 kN with durability exceeding 99.4%. Optimal moisture content, typically between 6 and 7% is crucial for maximising density, bulk density, mechanical durability and fracture resistance, ensuring robust pellet structure and performance. The research underscores the impact of pellet dimensions, highlighting those longer lengths, > 12 mm enhance durability, while larger diameters > 8 mm exhibit reduced durability. Elemental analysis focusing on calcium, silicon and potassium plays a critical role in predicting and managing combustion system fouling, potentially reducing operational costs. Moreover, the study emphasises the significant influence of oxygen levels during combustion on CO2 emissions, achieving optimal results with moisture content in the 7–8% range for maximum higher heating value (HHV). The moisture content in the 14–15% range represents the lowest CO2 emission. The findings underscore the intricacy of the system and the interplay of parameters with one another. In accordance with the priority of each application, the selection of parameters warrants careful consideration.Graphical

Long-term source apportionment of PM2.5 across the contiguous United States (2000-2019) using a multilinear engine model

The objectives of this study are to evaluate the technical and cost implications of retrofitting post-combustion Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in existing coal-fired power plants in Thailand, with a special focus on the Mae Moh plant managed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT). We undertake a detailed analysis using AspenPlus simulation models to determine the optimum capture cost per ton of CO2 and to examine the effects of various flue gas loads on CO2 capture performance and cost-effectiveness. The research reveals a key operational insight: as the flow rate of flue gas increases, the cost to capture a ton of CO2 decreases, indicating economies of scale in CCS operations. Furthermore, the study explores the potential for integrating solar photovoltaic (PV) technology as a renewable energy source, which shows promise in lowering Thailand’s power sector emissions and operational costs. By comparing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for solar PV against conventional coal-fired power generation and considering the country’s favorable geographic and climatic conditions, solar PV emerges as an economically viable and environmentally sustainable alternative. The findings of this research aim to inform strategic energy policy decisions in Thailand, advocating for a transition to more sustainable energy systems and emphasizing the balance between environmental responsibility and economic feasibility.

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector. Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity generation across models range from 47%–83% below 2005 in 2030 (68% average) and 66%–87% in 2035 (78% average). Our higher clean electricity deployment and lower emissions under IRA, compared with earlier U.S. modeling, change the baseline for future policymaking and analysis. IRA helps to bring projected U.S. power sector and economy-wide emissions closer to near-term climate targets; however, no models indicate that these targets will be met with IRA alone, which suggests that additional policies, incentives, and private sector actions are needed.

Positive synergy or negative synergy: An assessment of the carbon emission reduction effect of renewable energy policy mixes on China's power sector