Emission Reduction Cost Research Articles

The increasing effects in energy and GHG emission caused by groundwater level declines in North China’s main food production plain

Agriculture consumes a huge amount of energy every year and then emits lots of greenhouse gases (GHG). Reduction of agricultural energy consumption is important to sustainable agriculture and mitigation of climate change. Groundwater is the main irrigation source in north China’s main food production plains, North China Plain (NCP). Many studies have shown that the groundwater levels here have declined a lot during past decades. However, the related environmental and economic impacts have been rarely researched. This study carries out a detailed research on the changes in energy cost and GHG emissions caused by groundwater level declines on the NCP. Results indicate that during 1996–2013, total agricultural groundwater consumption here has increased by 20%. Over-exploitation of groundwater has caused severe groundwater declines (0.6 m yr−1) and the decline rate has become faster in recent years. As a result, energy use rate for pumping unit water has increased from 0.50 to 0.61 kWh m−3, by nearly 22%. Therefore, GHG emissions have increased from 6.16 to 8.72 Mt CO2e, by 42%. Hebei suffers the most serious groundwater level declines and emits most GHG from pumping, accounting for 47% of the total emissions in the NCP. The economic cost of energy consumption and emission reduction for pumping irrigation is US$ 1.25 billion in 2013, reaching up to 10.3% of GDP in this region. The increasing cost is a great threat to sustainable development of agriculture. Water-saving irrigation is one of the most effective ways to reduce water and energy consumption without loss of grain output. To reduce GHG emissions and pressures on energy and groundwater resources, water-saving irrigation should be greatly promoted in this region. The study would contribute to the development of water-saving and energy-saving agriculture.

The utilisation of feed and byproducts of mineral carbonation processes as pozzolanic cement replacements

Abstract Utilising the byproducts of mineral carbonation processes contributes to rendering the technology environmentally benign and enhances the economically viability of the process. In this work we synthesised, characterised and investigated the technical feasibility and environmental benefits of utilising feed and byproducts of mineral carbonation technology as Portland cement substitutes. These materials, with and without pre-treatment, were used to substitute 5, 10 and 20 wt% of Portland cement in mortars. Pozzolanic activity tests indicated that acid treated silica enriched residue (ATSER) displayed pozzolanic activity. At 5% cement replacement all materials showed compressive strengths comparable to the control. When 10 wt% of cement was replaced, only heat activated lizardite showed strength results similar to the control. The compressive strength of mortars containing other samples with 10 wt% or greater cement replacement showed that the extra water demand outweighed any pozzolanic contribution of mineral carbonation materials and resulted in a lowering of the compressive strength of these mortars compared to controls, in particular when in excess of 10 wt% of cement is replaced. An environmental analysis showed that in addition to significant CO2 emissions reduction, the economic and environmental costs of waste disposal were avoided when mineral carbonation byproducts substituted Portland cement.

Effectiveness of pilot carbon emissions trading systems in China

ABSTRACTChina is in the process of establishing a national emissions trading system (ETS). Evaluating the implementation effectiveness of the seven pilot ETSs in China is critical for designing this national system. This study administered a questionnaire survey to assess the behaviour of enterprises covered by the seven ETS pilots from the perspective of: the strictness of compliance measures; rules for monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV); the mitigation pressure felt by enterprises; and actual mitigation and trading activities. The results show that the pilot MRV and compliance rules have not yet been fully implemented. The main factors involved are the lack of compulsory force of the regulations and the lack of policy awareness within the affected enterprises. Most enterprises have a shortage of free allowances and thus believe that the ETSs have increased their production costs. Most enterprises have already established mitigation targets. Some of the covered enterprises are aware of their own internal emission reduction costs and most of these have used this as an important reference in trading. Many enterprises have accounted for carbon prices in their long-term investment. The proportion of enterprises that have participated in trading is fairly high; however, reluctance to sell is quite pervasive in the market, and enterprises are mostly motivated to trade simply in order to achieve compliance. Few enterprises are willing to manage their allowances in a market-oriented manner. Different free allowance allocation methods directly affect the pathways enterprises take to control emissions.Key policy insightsIn the national ETS, the compulsory force of ETS provisions should be strengthened.A reasonable level of free allowance shortage should be ensured to promote emission reduction by enterprises.Sufficient information should be provided to guide enterprises in their allowance management to activate the market.To promote the implementation of mitigation technologies by enterprises, actual output-based allocation methods should be used.The government should use market adjustment mechanisms, such as a price floor and ceiling, to ensure that carbon prices are reasonable and stable, so as to guide long-term low carbon investment.

EXPLORING THE IMPACTS OF A NATIONAL U.S. CO2 TAX AND REVENUE RECYCLING OPTIONS WITH A COUPLED ELECTRICITY-ECONOMY MODEL

This paper provides a comprehensive exploration of the impacts of economy-wide CO2 taxes in the U.S. simulated using a detailed electric sector model [the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS)] linked with a computable general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy [the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s U.S. Regional Energy Policy (USREP) model]. We implement various tax trajectories and options for using the revenue collected by the tax and describe their impact on household welfare and its distribution across income levels. Overall, we find that our top-down/bottom-up models affects estimates of the distribution and cost of emission reductions as well as the amount of revenue collected, but that these are mostly insensitive to the way the revenue is recycled. We find that substantial abatement opportunities through fuel switching and renewable penetration in the electricity sector allow the economy to accommodate extensive emissions reductions at relatively low cost. While welfare impacts are largely determined by the choice of revenue recycling scheme, all tax levels and schemes provide net benefits when accounting for the avoided global climate change benefits of emission reductions. Recycling revenue through capital income tax rebates is more efficient than labor income tax rebates or uniform transfers to households. While capital tax rebates substantially reduce the overall costs of emission abatement, they profit high income households the most and are regressive. We more generally identify a clear trade-off between equity and efficiency across the various recycling options. However, we show through a set of hybrid recycling schemes that it is possible to limit inequalities in impacts, particularly those on the lowest income households, at relatively little incremental cost.

Low-Carbon Strategies for Competing Firms Under Cap-and-Trade Regulation With Consumer Preference

This paper develops price and low-carbon competition models between one socially responsible manufacturer (RM) and one ordinary manufacturer (OM). We investigate how manufacturers’ low-carbon behaviors are affected by factors such as consumers’ low-carbon preference, the cap-and-trade regulation and competing environment. Our results show that without the cap-and-trade regulation and consumers’ low-carbon preference, both RM and OM produce ordinary product. By contrast, with the cap-and-trade regulation, even if consumers do not have low-carbon preference, both RM and OM will reduce carbon emissions if they have the capability. Without the cap-and-trade regulation, as expected, we find that a manufacturer’s price and emission reduction rate are always strategic complements. With the cap-and-trade regulation, however, a manufacturer’s price and emission reduction rate may be strategic substitutes when the carbon market price is high. Furthermore, we demonstrate that, with the cap-and-trade regulation, unlike OM, RM may not be able to benefit always from a high carbon quota issued by the government. Specifically, when OM’s emission reduction cost is low, a high carbon quota could hurt RM’s bottom line. In addition, we show that, even though it is always beneficial for OM to acquire the low-carbon technology, the benefit of doing so diminishes as the competition intensifies, the government carbon quota decreases, or the carbon market price increases.

Research on low-carbon strategies in supply chain with environmental regulations based on differential game

Abstract With increasing carbon emissions and relatively unfavorable climate changes, all circles of society, including consumers, governments and enterprises, are paying more attention to low-carbon production. In this study, we consider a two-echelon supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one supplier that try to increase sustainable profits by making efforts on CO2 emission reduction in three progressive environment regulation situations using a Stackelberg differential game: (1) the market-based situation in which consumers' environmental awareness is mainly considered, (2) the government-based situation in which government intervention effect is mainly considered, and (3) the supply chain based situation in which the channel coordination effect is mainly considered. Dynamic expressions of the optimal sales price, emission reduction efforts and cost subsidy are derived from three situations with the goal of profit maximization. The results show that the emission reduction is largest with the highest efforts of the manufacturer and supplier in the supply chain based situation. The manufacturer makes increasing emission reduction efforts when consumers' environmental awareness, government intervention and channel coordination are introduced in sequence, and charges more money for low-carbon products according to the amount of emission reduction. The supplier makes more efforts only when channel coordination is introduced. Governmental regulation aimed at the final products and downstream enterprises cannot function effectively; a cost-sharing contract in the supply chain is needed to motivate the supplier to make greater emission reduction efforts. The simulations and sensitivity analyses are given to verify the effectiveness of the conclusions. Our study provides theoretical support for dynamic low-carbon production in the supply chain with environmental regulations from the market, government and operation.

Embodied Carbon Tariffs

AbstractIn this paper, we investigate the economic and environmental impacts of tariffs on carbon embodied in trade. We find that carbon tariffs do reduce foreign emissions, but their ability to improve global cost‐effectiveness of unilateral climate policy is quite limited – even if tariff rates are based on more sophisticated second‐best considerations. If carbon tariffs are levied on the full carbon content of traded goods, they can even increase rather than decrease the global cost of emission reduction. The main effect of carbon tariffs is to shift the economic burden of developed‐world climate policies to the developing world.

Effects of Different Precious Metal Loads of CDPF on Characteristics of VOCs Emissions from a Diesel Bus

Based on heavy chassis dynamometers, an experimental study was conducted in a diesel bus with proton transfer reaction mass spectrometry (PTR-MS). It investigated the effects of volatile organic compound (VOC) emission characteristics with three different diesel oxidation catalyst (DOC)+catalyzed diesel particulate filter (CDPF) after-treatments for a typical Chinese city bus driving cycle (CCBC). The results reveal that the major compounds from the diesel bus are OVOCs, aromatic hydrocarbons, alkenes, alkanes, nitrogenous organic compounds, and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH), and that the OVOCs account for more than 50%of the total VOCs. With the same precious metal composition and ratio of the proportion in the CDPF catalyst, the emissions of VOCs decrease with an increase in precious metal load. The emission reduction rates of the VOCs are 36.2%, 40.1%, and 41.4%, respectively, when the precious metal loads are 15 g·ft-3 (type A after-treatment device), 25 g·ft-3 (type B), and 35 g·ft-3 (type C). The average emission rates of alkanes for the three kinds of DOC+CDPF after-treatments are all over 59% for the entire CCBC cycle. The type C after-treatment device can reduce the alkane emissions by 70.2%, with a slight advantage for the OVOC reduction compared with type A and type B devices. For unsaturated hydrocarbons, including aromatic hydrocarbons, alkenes, and PAHs, the after-treatment devices have a catalytic effect, but there is no significant difference between them. The emissions of nitrogenous organic compounds are greatly decreased, by 50.5%, with the type A after-treatment, but the reduction rate decreases with an increase in precious metal load. In addition, OVOCs, aromatic hydrocarbons, and alkenes are the most important contributors to ozone formation. The adoption of DOC+CDPF reduces the emissions of VOCs and, therefore, the ozone formation potential. Taking into account the emission reduction rates and costs of the three different after-treatments and for weighting coefficients of 0.8 and 0.2, respectively, the type B after-treatment is the optimal solution.

A Techno-economic Assessment of Fuel Switching Options of Addressing Environmental Challenges of Coal-Fired Industrial Boilers: An analytical work for China

Energy use and pollution from coal-burning industrial boilers have been major climate and environmental issues in China. Assessing the economics of various options to address coal-fired boilers is essential to identify cost-effective solutions. This paper discusses the work in using actual fuel price data and other information to assess the economics of fuel switching options of replacing coal with alternative fuels to address the industrial coal-fired boilers; our study evaluates four fuel switching options, i.e., using natural gas, oil, biomass, and electric boilers. It compares the fixed vs. operation costs and pollutant emission reduction cost of these options relative to coal-fired boilers. It concludes that natural gas would be the best option among the four alternatives in replacing coal-fired boilers. However, natural gas price plays an important role in determining how economical the replacement is. The research has established a method to assess fuel switching options for industrial coal-fired boilers, assisting policy-makers in developing cost-effective fuel switching strategies to address the energy and environmental challenges of coal-fired industrial boilers.

A systematic review of policy approaches to dairy sector greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction

The dairy sector is a significant source of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The increasingly robust emission inventories allow researchers to consider mitigation. However, there is a gap in knowledge regarding the extent to which mitigation research has been implemented as policy. The authors undertook a systematic a review of national-level dairy policy of 23 countries broadly following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) protocols. The aim of the study was to identify international trends in dairy sector GHG emission reduction policy. Sampled countries included the 12 countries with the highest quantity of dairy sector enteric methane emission and 11 Annex I countries with the largest number of dairy cattle per capita. A total of 34 documents were collated containing 62 policies across five themes. Themes included: nutrition, manure, health, breeding and management. Thirty-one policies were identified for both the high emission nations and Annex I nations with the largest number of dairy cattle per capita. Nutrition based interventions account for 36% (n = 11) of all policies identified for high emitting nations. Manure based interventions account for 48% (n = 15) of all policies identified for Annex I nations with the largest number of dairy cattle per capita. Across the sample, policymakers favoured manure management strategies (n = 24), particularly anaerobic digestion which accounted for 21% (n = 13) of all identified policies. Nutrition based mitigation strategies were also preferred (n = 17). Policies aimed at reducing sector size were largely ignored (n = 4). The results indicate that significant mitigation is unlikely as manure emissions are only a small portion of total dairy sector emissions. The study concludes that policymakers are selecting the less politically sensitive mitigation strategies at the cost of emission reduction.

Evaluating the CO2 emissions reduction potential and cost of power sector re-dispatch

Prior studies of the U.S. electricity sector have recognized the potential to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by substituting generation from coal-fired units with generation from under-utilized and lower-emitting natural gas-fired units; in fact, this type of “re-dispatch” was invoked as one of the three building blocks used to set the emissions targets under the Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan. Despite the existence of surplus natural gas capacity in the U.S., power system operational constraints not often considered in power sector policy analyses, such as transmission congestion, generator ramping constraints, minimum generation constraints, planned and unplanned generator outages, and ancillary service requirements, could limit the potential and increase the cost of coal-to-gas re-dispatch. Using a highly detailed power system unit commitment and dispatch model, we estimate the maximum potential for re-dispatch in the Eastern Interconnection, which accounts for the majority of coal capacity and generation in the U.S. Under our reference assumptions, we find that maximizing coal-to-gas re-dispatch yields emissions reductions of 230 million metric tons (Mt), or 13% of power sector emissions in the Eastern Interconnection, with a corresponding average abatement cost of $15–$44 per metric ton of CO2, depending on the assumed supply elasticity of natural gas.

GHG emission pathways until 2300 for the 1.5 °C temperature rise target and the mitigation costs achieving the pathways

The Paris Agreement of the 21st Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change refers to the 1.5 °C target as well as the 2 °C target, and it is important to estimate the emission pathways and mitigation measures for the 1.5 °C target for the discussions on the target. The possible emission pathways vary widely because of the uncertainties involved. We assumed three kinds of temperature trajectories for meeting below 1.5 °C compared with the pre-industrial level, and three numbers for the climate sensitivity. The first trajectory remains below 1.5 °C all the time until 2300, the second overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2100, and the third overshoots but returns to below 1.5 °C by 2300. There are large differences in terms of 2030 emissions between the estimate from the submitted Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and any of assessed emission pathways involving climate sensitivity of 3.0 °C or higher, and high emission reduction costs were estimated, even for 2030. With climate sensitivity of 2.5 °C, only the third trajectory exhibits consistent emissions in 2030 with the NDCs. However, this case also appears very difficult to achieve, requiring enormous amounts of negative emissions after the middle of this century toward 2300. A climate mitigation strategy aiming for the 1.5 °C target will be debatable, because we face serious difficulties in near- or/and long-term for all the possible emission pathways, and therefore, we should rather focus on actual emission reduction activities than on the 1.5 °C target with poor feasibility.

Project cost comparison under the clean development mechanism to inform investment selection by industrialized countries

This is the first study that comprehensively evaluates and compares the average costs of six types of 4061 registered clean development mechanism (CDM) projects. The projects were conducted from 2005 to 2014 by industrialized countries investing in host countries that had various technology and income levels. Specifically, this study compares the average costs of emission reduction for each type of project; projects were used by industrialized countries to achieve specific emission reductions commitments. The lowest average cost per ton of reduced emissions found in renewable energy projects, fuel switch projects, supply-side energy efficiency improvements, and demand-side energy efficiency improvements, all of which were effectively reduced emissions by less than 1 million tons in host countries with high technology levels and upper-medium income levels. The average cost for the other two project types, methane reduction and methane avoidance, showed that these projects were more effective at reducing emissions by more than 50 million tons in host countries with upper-middle technology levels and upper-medium income levels. These lowest average costs for different project types can guide project selection by industrialized countries seeking the lowest total emission reduction costs. Selection of CDM project investments by industrialized countries should account not only for the technology and income levels of host countries but also for the amounts by which industrialized countries have committed to reducing their emissions.

Greenhouse gas reduction and cost efficiency of using wood flooring as an alternative to ceramic tile: A case study in China

Chinese wood flooring and ceramic tile are the research objects in this study. Their energy consumption, the greenhouse gas emissions over their life cycles, and the cost of avoided emissions are analyzed. When wood flooring is used as an alternative to ceramic tile, a total of 0.16–2.85 t CO2 eq/m3 is avoided. The cost of GHG emission reduction is −3.42 to 82.28 RMB/kg CO2 eq (−0.51 to 12.34 USD/kg CO2 eq). The GHG emission reduction from the substitution increases and the cost of emission reduction decreases when the carbon stock in wood flooring is included (1a), the flooring is burned with energy recovery after replacement (2b), and the price of ceramic tile increases (4b). To achieve carbon emission reduction and obtain economic benefit from wood substitution, a reasonable approach for dealing with waste, prolonging the life span of wood flooring, and reducing cost should be considered.

Analysis of emission reduction strategies for power boilers in the US pulp and paper industry

The US pulp and paper (PNP) industry utilizes a variety of fuels to provide energy for process needs, resulting in air emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), particulate matter (PM), and greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2). Emissions from this sector have largely declined and continue to decline steadily since the mid-1990s, reflecting changes in fuel types used and their sulfur content, fluctuation in PNP production, increase in the volume of recycling, efficiency gains throughout the sector, and capital investments for compliance with regulations. Because of the above factors, recent market trends favoring the use of natural gas over coal, and more demanding regulatory limits, it is reasonable to expect that air emissions from the sector will continue to decline in the near future. Boilers have been the dominant source of SO2, NOX, PM, and CO2 emissions for the sector. It would, therefore, be of interest to understand how air pollution controls have been applied to date on new, existing, and replaced units, as well as the cost and emission reductions associated with expanding their use throughout the sector. In the work described here, the Universal Industrial Sectors Integrated Solutions (UISIS) model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is used to examine the emission reduction potential and cost of controls. This paper briefly characterizes air emissions from boilers operating in the PNP sector and reviews the menu of air pollution control technologies applicable to the sector. Then, after describing the UISIS PNP model, modeling results are presented, in which several illustrative air emission reduction strategies are assessed, including fuel switching, installation of air pollution control equipment, and implementation of energy efficiency measures.

Impacts of emission reduction and external cost on natural gas distribution

Natural gas, as a cleaner fossil fuel energy resource, is playing an increasingly important role in the future energy mix to achieve emission reduction target globally. In this study, a new method based on the external cost is developed to identify an optimal solution for natural gas distribution. China is selected for a case study. Both the economic cost and the external cost of pollutant emissions have been considered. The provincial distribution of natural gas and other energy resources is optimized with the aim to minimize both economic and external costs. Results show that the supply of natural gas should be prioritized for Beijing, Tianjin and Shanghai, owing to higher external costs and the optimized distribution can reduce the overall external cost by 4% in China. The optimization of natural gas distribution will also influence CO2 emissions, therefore, the determination of the reduction target for each province should consider the external cost. Sensitivity study also shows that the minimum energy demand, the maximum natural gas supply and the minimum natural gas demand are the key parameters that impact the optimized distribution for each province.

Optimal Implementation Strategy of Carbon Emission Reduction Policy Instruments in Consideration of Cost Efficiency

Abstract In this paper, regulatory and optimum programming model has been adopted. Considering the costs of emission reduction, supervision and penalty, we went all out to analyze the optimal decision of cost efficiency of regulators when implementing these three policy instruments: carbon emission standards, carbon emission trading permissions, and carbon taxes as well. Its result has indicated: In strict accordance with control target of total carbon emissions, regulators are willing to render social and economic cost able to achieve the goal of optimal cost efficiency by regulating carbon emission standards and supervising marginal cost caused by variations in the probability; fortunately, under the conditions of low supervisory cost and certain criteria which is met, the implementation of carbon emission trading permissions could provide social and economic cost with opportunities to realize that objective; through comparative analysis, carbon emission trading permissions have the advantages of higher efficiency than carbon emission standards on the premise of incomplete information. During the implementation of carbon taxes strategy, when there exists uncertainty information in the enterprises reduction behaviors, the condition which enterprises can fully comply with is the tax rate level is not higher than marginal penalty function; the tax rate level of enterprises perfect compliance ought not to be lower than the division of marginal penalty cost and marginal supervisory cost. The optimal strategy of enterprises imperfect compliance is that regulators varying the marginal cost of emission standards is equal to varying that of supervisory probability.

Cost of preventing workplace heat-related illness through worker breaks and the benefit of climate-change mitigation

The exposure of workers to hot environments is expected to increase as a result of climate change. In order to prevent heat-related illness, it is recommended that workers take breaks during working hours. However, this would lead to reductions in worktime and labor productivity. In this study, we estimate the economic cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks associated with climate change under a wide range of climatic and socioeconomic conditions. We calculate the worktime reduction based on the recommendation of work/rest ratio and the estimated future wet bulb glove temperature, which is an index of heat stresses. Corresponding GDP losses (cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks) are estimated using a computable general equilibrium model throughout this century. Under the highest emission scenario, GDP losses in 2100 will range from 2.6 to 4.0% compared to the current climate conditions. On the other hand, GDP losses will be less than 0.5% if the 2.0 °C goal is achieved. The benefit of climate-change mitigation for avoiding worktime loss is comparable to the cost of mitigation (cost of the greenhouse gas emission reduction) under the 2.0 °C goal. The relationship between the cost of heat-related illness prevention through worker breaks and global average temperature rise is approximately linear, and the difference in economic loss between the 1.5 °C goal and the 2.0 °C goal is expected to be approximately 0.3% of global GDP in 2100. Although climate mitigation and socioeconomic development can limit the vulnerable regions and sectors, particularly in developing countries, outdoor work is still expected to be affected. The effectiveness of some adaptation measures such as additional installation of air conditioning devices or shifting the time of day for working are also suggested. In order to reduce the economic impacts, adaptation measures should also be implemented as well as pursing ambitious climate change mitigation targets.

Modeling collusion-proof port emission regulation of cargo-handling activities under incomplete information

This study models the emission regulation of a port's cargo-handling activities when the regulatory government agency lacks complete information on the cost of reducing emissions for the port. The goal is to identify rules for determining the optimal port charge and capacity to allow port emissions to be regulated in an environment with incomplete information. We evaluate the effect of introducing a risk-averse environmental monitor as a supervisor to provide the government with additional information (a signal) on the port operator's emission reduction cost. To prevent the environmental monitor from colluding with the port operator, we develop a collusion-proof regulation scheme based on the principal–agent theory. The scheme is modeled as a bi-level problem faced by the government and the monitor. We find that, compared to the case with complete information, collusion-proof regulation do not distort optimal port charges only when the port operator is efficient and has low emission reduction costs. When distortion does occur, it depends on the monitor's degree of risk aversion and the accuracy of the signal about emission reduction cost. Besides, information asymmetry leads to less cargo throughput, a lower emission level, and reduced port capacity. Such regulation-induced downward distortion can be either alleviated or aggravated by the collusion-proof regulation, depending on the quality of the information received by the environmental monitor. Our theoretical models are tested using a case study based on container terminals in the Port of Shanghai. The numerical results suggest that a risk-averse environmental monitor can improve port user's social welfare in the presence of imperfect information.

An evolutionary modeling approach for designing a contractual REDD+ payment scheme

Economic development and sustainable ecological and environmental development generally target different goals, and there are trade-offs and game-like behaviors between implementers and donors in reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD+) program. This paper analyzed the effects of evolutionary behaviors of REDD+ implementers and donors with respect to environmental service payments. Within a theoretical analysis framework, the evolutionary stable strategies of the implementers and donors under different contractual payments for ecosystem services (PES) scenarios are analyzed to explore contractual REDD+ payments through evolutionary game models. On this basis, anon-parametric local regression approach is used to analyze arrange of market-based contractual PES schemes in five REDD+ countries (Congo, Brazil, Ecuador, Nepal and Uganda). The results show the following: First, when the opportunity costs are less than the environmental benefits, some middle and high income developing countries are sufficiently incentivized to conserve forests, even without formal contractual PES scheme. This conservation occurs regardless of whether the industrialized countries will pay for the ecosystem services. Second, when the opportunity costs are greater than the environmental benefits, developing countries will generally not take the initiative to conserve forests when industrialized countries do not pay for the associated ecosystem services. Third, when there are enough contractual PES fines, developing countries will conserve forests, and the industrialized countries will pay for the ecosystem services. Finally, contractual PES fines are related to the costs of reducing emissions. Nepal has the largest marginal effect, and Uganda has the smallest. These results have implications for REDD+ program design and implementation: market-based contractual PES scheme should be given priority to regulate behavior of industrialized countries and developing countries in the PES scheme. Developing a targeted and differentiated contractual PES scheme requires an accounting of emission reduction costs in different countries.