Electoral Marginality Research Articles

Explaining Party Switching in an Institutionalised Party System: The Case of South Africa

Institutionalised party systems are said to foster stronger party allegiances and fewer switches. However, this expectation is called into question when we observe the case of South Africa. Despite being characterised by a highly institutionalised dominant party system as well as party-centred electoral and candidate selection rules, South Africa has experienced frequent episodes of floor-crossing over time. This article advances an analytical framework that links elites’ vote-seeking and office-seeking incentives to party switching and party system functioning. It posits that as elites strive for (re)selection and (re-)election, they will depart from smaller to larger parties, and this ultimately reinforces the party system of the day. Utilising an original dataset of 5,230 candidates to the National Assembly and the provincial legislatures of South Africa between 1999 and 2019, the study charts the overall rate of party switching and tests hypotheses postulating the effect of party size and candidates’ electoral marginality on the likelihood of switching parties. The analyses reveal that candidates from smaller parties and those who failed to be (re-)elected by the narrowest margin are more likely to switch parties in the next election. Additionally, most candidates who switched parties tended to move to parties that fared better than their original party in the next election; and they switched from parties that either did worse or stayed the same. But we did not find a strong correlation linking party performance to switches. The study highlights the role of intra-party competition in patterns of elite migration and reveals the importance of linking elite behaviour to party system functioning.

Representation and Legislative Roles in Congress: Evidence from the 1950s

Classic and contemporary research assumes legislators subjectively adopt a role orientation. This role indicates the degree to which they attempt to provide delegate representation for their constituents with the policies they support. Existing research, however, is divided on the causes that influence the choice between a relatively delegate or trustee role. I hypothesize that district heterogeneity affects this choice. Using data from the American Representation Study in the 1950s, I assess how a U.S. representative’s selection of a delegate or trustee role is affected by district heterogeneity. The findings indicate that greater ideological heterogeneity generally increases the likelihood of delegate representation, depending on a legislator’s electoral marginality. Greater partisan heterogeneity usually decreases the likelihood of delegate representation, except among electorally marginal legislators. I also find that marginality, seniority, and party affect legislators’ role choices, providing evidence that in some ways Congress has remained the same over time.

Electoral incentives for territorial representation in the European Parliament

ABSTRACT While many citizens are indifferent about the EU, most MEPs are invisible in national politics and European Parliament elections are not fought based on parliamentary activity records, some legislators still pursue territorial interests or foster constituency linkages. What explains such behavior? Drawing on written questions data from the 6th and the 7th terms of the European Parliament (EP) this article shows that despite the virtual absence of an electoral connection in EP elections, electoral system features, and electoral marginality influence the MEPs’ engagement in geographical representation. Electorally marginal MEPs ask more questions on regional and national topics as do MEPs elected from STV systems. There is no evidence for a differential effect of district magnitude depending on ballot structure.

Constituent Approval, Electoral Marginality, and Congressional Support for the President

Controversy exists concerning the effects of approval on congressional support for the president. One source of confusion is the paucity of constituent‐level data for testing the approval–support hypothesis. This study applies multilevel regression poststratification techniques on the Cooperative Congressional Election Study from 2006 through 2012 to estimate constituent approval for both the House and Senate at the member level. Using these data, we test a marginality hypothesis, which suggests that electorally marginal legislators will be more responsive to constituent approval than safe ones. Results indicate support for the approval–support linkage as well as the marginality hypothesis. The marginality effect operates differently across the two chambers and is stronger in the House. The conclusion puts the findings into context and suggests directions for future research.

The Conservative Party Leadership Election of 2016: An Analysis of the Voting Motivations of Conservative Parliamentarians

This article provides the first systematic examination of the voting motivations of Conservative MPs in the final parliamentary ballot of the Conservative Party leadership election of 2016. We identify the voting behaviour of each Conservative parliamentarian as part of a unique data set that we use to test, through the use of multivariate analysis, a series of hypotheses based around social background variables (i.e. gender and education); political variables (i.e. parliamentary experience, electoral marginality, the electoral threat posed by UKIP and ministerial status); and ideological variables (i.e. attitudes towards same-sex marriage and Brexit). Our findings demonstrate that ideology did matter in terms of voting. Attitudes towards Brexit were central to the appeals of both Theresa May (to Remainers) and Andrea Leadsom (to Leavers). We also demonstrate that in terms of support for Leadsom, Brexit was not the only significant driver, as opinion on same-sex marriage, year of entry and ministerial status also influenced voting behaviour.

Conservative ministers in the Coalition government of 2010–15: evidence of bias in the ministerial selections of David Cameron?

ABSTRACTThe article uses a data set of the 2010–15 Parliamentary Conservative Party (PCP) to test a series of hypotheses in order to determine whether those selected for ministerial office during the coalition era were representative of the PCP as a whole. The findings show no significant associations or bias by Cameron in terms of age, schooling, regional base, morality, voting for Cameron in the Conservative Party leadership election and, most significantly, gender. Significant associations or bias were evident in terms of Cameron’s patronage with regard to university education and electoral marginality. The findings demonstrate that any critique of current Conservative ministers based on their supposed elitism stems from the institutional and structural biases within the Conservative Party at candidate selection level, and cannot be attributed to bias on behalf of Cameron.

Electoral Vulnerability, Constituency Focus, and Parliamentary Questions in the House of Commons

This article: Demonstrates that use of written parliamentary questions by British MPs is influenced by electoral context. Shows that as the margin of victory in prior election decreases, members ask more questions. Indicates that the margin of victory does not affect proportion of questions that focus on constituency issues. Concludes that electorally vulnerable members use questions to signal effort, rather than attention to constituency issues.An emerging literature suggests that British MPs use legislative tools such as private member bills and early day motions to develop reputations with constituents, notwithstanding the common belief that individual legislative behaviour has little effect on electoral outcomes in Britain. This study demonstrates that British MPs also use parliamentary questions to respond to electoral vulnerability. Using data on written parliamentary questions asked between 1997 and 2010, it examines two possible consequences of electoral vulnerability: increased question frequency and greater focus on constituency issues in questions. It demonstrates that members ask more written parliamentary questions on average when their margin of victory decreases. In contrast, there is no meaningful evidence that MP focus on constituency issues increases with electoral marginality. These findings suggest that members use questions to signal effort to their constituents rather than attention to constituency issues.

Getting it Right When it Counts: Constituency Marginality and Voter Perceptions of British Parties' Policy Positions

This article argues that despite the importance of national party politics in Britain, constituency-level electoral marginality makes it easier for citizens to select parties based on policy. Using data from the 2005 and 2010 British Election Studies, I find that citizens residing in marginal constituencies are more likely to perceive parties' relative ideological positions correctly, and that electoral marginality promotes knowledge by increasing both the attention that parties pay to a constituency and citizens' engagement in the election. Finally, preliminary findings suggest that citizens do not necessarily perceive differences in the tone of the campaign material.

‘From weird to wired’: MPs, the internet and representative politics in the UK

Westminster MPs have regularly been criticised for their failure to take advantage of the democratic possibilities of the Internet, particularly in light of the continuing problems of engaging public interest in representative institutions. Yet, so far, there have been few studies of their online activities. This article examines the growth and function of UK MPs' websites and how far technology might facilitate changes in their constituency, party and parliament roles. The results indicate a significant growth over the past three years, although those with independent websites are still in a minority. It is also clear that personal factors (notably age), constituency factors, such as electoral marginality and the technological profile of the locality, as well as party factors all help explain patterns of MPs' activity online. For the most part, however, content analysis of sites reveals a rather static and cautious approach to web communication which represents a modernising rather than democratising strategy.

Position Taking and Position Avoidance in the U.S. Senate

Why do some legislators take fewer positions on roll-call votes than others? Do these omissions occur by chance, or is it possible that certain legislators avoid taking positions intentionally? This study analyzes whether differential electoral considerations affect the level of position taking among legislators. In particular, it examines whether electoral considerations may actually lead some legislators to avoid taking positions on roll-call votes in an effort to conceal their issue preferences from constituents. Based on U.S. Senate data from the years 1979 to 1996, the results suggest that unwillingness to take positions on roll-call votes is not random. Instead, it is significantly related to factors such as diversity of constituents' opinions, pursuit of higher office, electoral marginality, retirement decisions, and visibility within the institution.

The British Conservative Party and Europe: The Choosing of John Major

This article provides an empirical analysis of voting behaviour in the second ballot of the 1990 Conservative leadership contest that resulted in John Major becoming party leader and prime minister. Seven hypotheses of voting behaviour are generated from the extant literature relating voting to socio-economic variables (occupational and educational background), political variables (parliamentary experience, career status, age and electoral marginality) and ideological variables (drawn from survey data on MPs' positions on economic, European and moral issues). These hypotheses are tested using data on voting intentions gathered from published lists of MPs' declarations, interviews with each of the leadership campaign teams, and correspondence with MPs. Bivariate relationships are presented, followed by logistic regression analysis to isolate the unique impact that each variable had on voting. This shows that educational background, parliamentary experience and (especially) attitudes to Europe were the key factors determining voting. The importance of Europe in the contest is particularly instructive: the severe problems for Major's leadership which were caused by the issue can be attributed to, and understood in the context of, the 1990 contest in which he became leader.

Patterns of voting choice in multimember districts: the case of english local elections

Analysis of plurality voting where district magnitude is greater than one offers students of electoral behaviour unique opportunities. In this paper we use aggregate voting data from English local elections to explore a number of issues concerning the relationship between parties, candidates and voters. Our first task is to measure the level of unused votes and consider the impact of party competition and electoral marginality. Multimember districts also provide the potential for intra-party comparisons of candidates. Accordingly, we measure the range of votes between candidates from the same party and consider the impact of incumbency, gender and ballot position on differential rates of electoral support. Although the empirical focus of the paper is on English local government, its findings may well prove relevant to an understanding of the relationship between voters and parties in other electoral systems where a choice about the number of votes to use and the way in which to cast them is available.

Hunting for votes: the geography of free votes and electoral advantage in the British House of Commons

When viewed in an international context some democratic political systems bestow more individual freedom on elected representatives than others over how they vote, for instance that of the United States compared to the United Kingdom. However, occasional opportunities arise for ‘free votes’ even in the British House of Commons and the paper considers the case study of that on the banning of hunting in 1992. The paper outlines the nature of the geography and politics of public opinion on the hunting issue and relates this to the free-voting patterns of MPs from opposing parties and constituencies of differing electoral marginality, as well as to the outcome of the closely-following General Election. On balance, Conservative MPs in marginal seats who voted in favour of a ban on hunting gained no subsequent advantage in retaining their seats over those who did not. This generates some points for final discussion.

Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U. S. House Elections, 1824-1978

Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U. S. House Elections, 1824-1978

Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U.S. House Elections, 1824-1978

Gary Jacobson (1987a, 1987b) has suggested that increased vote proportions for incumbent House candidates during the 1960s and 1970s have not resulted in greater electoral safety, primarily because of greater observed volatility in interelection vote swings occurring during the same era. Using data on House elections from 1824 to 1978, we find that both "marginal" and "safe" incumbents are much more vulnerable to electoral defeat during the 19th century than during the 20th century. This pattern seems to be explained by greater homogeneity of interelection vote swings during the 20th century. Overall, our results lend strong support to Jacobson's assertion that the meaning of electoral marginality varies substantially over time.

Getting the Details Right: A Comment on "Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U.S. House Elections, 1824-1978"

Getting the Details Right: A Comment on "Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U.S. House Elections, 1824-1978"

Getting the Details Right: A Comment on "Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U. S. House Elections, 1824-1978"

Getting the Details Right: A Comment on "Changing Meanings of Electoral Marginality in U. S. House Elections, 1824-1978"

Electoral Marginality in State Legislative Elections, 1968-86

Electoral Marginality in State Legislative Elections, 1968-86

The Impact of Policy Voting on the Electoral Fortunes of Senate Incumbents

STUDENTS of congressional politics have long recognized the importance of studying the complex, multifaceted business of electing Congress. Most research on congressional elections has focused on House races, but scholarly attention to Senate elections has been increasing primarily because of the 1978 Center for Political Studies National Election Study (CPS/NES) which contained for the first time a variety of questions on voting for Senate candidates. Several researchers using this data have attempted to explain basic differences between House and Senate election outcomes (Mann and Wolfinger 1980; Abramowitz 1980; Hinckley 1980a, 1981). One study, however, has shown that the conclusions drawn from these studies are questionable because the 1978 CPS study did not include a representative sample of voters. Westlye (1983) found voters in states with extremely competitive Senate races to be overrepresented in the 1978 survey. More importantly, he demonstrated that many incumbent senators, like their counterparts in the House, face relatively weak challenges for their seats on election day. In fact, many Senate races, like House contests, are uncompetitive and many challengers go largely unnoticed by voters. In view of these findings, the obvious question becomes why some incumbent senators are more vulnerable than others? Our major contention is that the policy positions of the incumbent relative to the positions held by his or her constituents have a bearing on electoral marginality.

Presidential and Congressional Response to Political Crisis: Nixon, Congress, and Watergate

This research tests a series of hypotheses on the congressional response to Watergate and explores Nixon's counter-impeachment strategy. As Neustadt's theory of presidential influence predicts, the sequence of Watergate disclosures contributed to a decline in congressional support for Nixon's legislative program in 1973. Partisan and regional differences in support for Nixon's program were also significant. The electoral marginality of representatives was not an important factor: competitive-seat Republicans voted as consistently for Nixon's program as safe-seat Republicans. The president's own electoral strength was a significant factor early in the 93rd Congress: Republicans in districts where Nixon ran strongly give Nixon his greatest legislative support. Nixon responded to the impeachment threat by withdrawing from legislative leadership and abandoning the “Administrative Presidency.” In 1974 Nixon added only five proposals to his domestic legislative agenda, took positions on only 15 percent of House roll calls, and vetoed only two bills. By avoiding controversial policy initiatives that might antagonize Congress, Nixon anticipated and helped forestall a further decline in congressional support in 1974.